Federal Realty Investment Trust Q4 2022 Earnings Report

Federal Realty Investment Trust EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.40
• Consensus EPS: $1.57
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.17
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.47

Federal Realty Investment Trust Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $279.80 million
• Expected Revenue: $277.24 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$2.56 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +10.20%

Federal Realty Investment Trust Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2022
• Date: 2/8/2023
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, February 8, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust that owns, operates, develops and redevelops retail and mixed-use properties. Its portfolio includes shopping centers and properties that combine retail, dining, residential, office and other uses, with an emphasis on locations in affluent and densely populated communities.

The company’s properties are concentrated in major metropolitan markets along the East Coast, in California and in South Florida. Federal Realty provides leasing, property management, development and redevelopment services designed to support long-term occupancy and create integrated destinations for retailers, residents, office users and visitors.

Founded in 1962, Federal Realty is headquartered in North Bethesda, Maryland, and trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol FRT. Donald C. Wood has served as the company’s president and chief executive officer since 2003.

Federal Realty Investment Trust Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Federal Realty reported $1.58 FFO per share in Q4 and $6.32 for the full year, a 13.5% increase over 2021 and above consensus expectations.
• The company executed a record 4.97 million sq ft of retail leases in 2022, achieving cash rent growth of 6% and straight-line rent growth of 15%, and ended the year 94.5% occupied.
• 2023 FFO guidance is set at $6.38–$6.58 per share, implying 2.5%–4% growth driven by 2%–4% comparable NOI growth and $15 million–$18 million of incremental net operating income from developments.
• Rising interest rates are expected to pressure earnings by roughly $0.30 per share in 2023, although management believes existing leases and development income will more than offset this headwind.
• Federal Realty maintains strong liquidity with $86 million of cash, a fully undrawn $1.25 billion credit facility, and net debt to EBITDA around 6×, which is forecast to improve as new projects stabilize.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings, welcome to the Federal Realty Investment Trust fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Leah Brady. Thank you, Ms. Brady. You may begin.

[Leah Brady, VP of Investor Relations at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Federal Realty's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call are Don Wood, Dan G., Jeff Berkes, Wendy Seher, Jan Sweetnam, and Melissa Solis. They will be available to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks. A reminder that certain matters discussed on this call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any annualized or projected information, as well as statements referring to expected or anticipated events or results, including guidance. Although Federal Realty believes the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Federal Realty's future operations and its actual performance may materially differ from the information in our forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that these expectations can be attained.

[Leah Brady, VP of Investor Relations at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

The earnings release and supplemental reporting package that we issued this afternoon, our annual report filed on Form 10-K, and our other financial disclosure documents provide a more in-depth discussion of risk factors that may affect our financial condition and results of operations. Our conference call tonight will be limited to 60 minutes. We kindly ask that you limit yourself to one question during the Q&A portion of our call. If you have additional questions, please feel free to reach out. With that, I will turn the call over to Don Wood to begin our discussion of our fourth quarter results. Don?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Well, thanks, Leah. Good afternoon, everybody. We ended 2022 on a very strong note and reported FFO per share of $1.58 the quarter, and therefore $6.32 for the full year. Ahead of both internal and external consensus expectations and a precursor to the strong guidance that great real estate with class leading demographics will allow us to forecast. We're more than a year ahead of where we thought we'd be in recovering from the depths of the pandemic in terms of leasing, occupancy, and bottom line earnings. We executed a record 497 leases for over 2 million sq ft of retail space in 2022, and the comparable deals were done at 6% more rent on a cash basis and 15% more rent on a straight-line basis than the leases that were expiring.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We did that while simultaneously increasing our inherent contractual rent bumps to over 2.25% annually overall. By the way, based on what we see looking forward into 2023, at this point, while I doubt that we'll do 497 leases again, I would expect a higher lease rollover percentage in 2023 as continued strong demand and inflationary pressures are helping negotiations. We leased up the portfolio at 94.5% at year-end, compared with 93.6% the year before, and still have room to further increase in 2023. Most importantly, that intensified focus we've been talking about over the last year or so aimed at minimizing that difference between percentage leased and percentage occupied, i.e., getting tenants rent paying more quickly. It's working.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

While our percentage leased continues to grow, up 90 basis points in 2022, our percentage occupied is growing even faster, up 170 basis points in 2022, suggesting some of the quickest times between lease signing and rent paying in our history. A particularly impressive feat during the supply chain struggles of the past two years. All of these things resulted in 2022 FFO per share of $6.32, 13.5% higher than the year before, and right on top of our pre-pandemic record. I know you've heard me say it many, many times before, but it bears repeating. Demographics matter, especially in times of economic pressure. Past cycles have convinced us that families simply have to have money to spend for retail real estate cash flow to grow.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

68,000 households with annual average household incomes of $150-$1,000 sit within 3 mi of Federal Realty centers. That's $10.2 billion of family income generated within a 3-mi radius, and more than half of those people have a four-year college degree or better. I know of no other significantly sized retail portfolio that can say that. It's manifesting itself in a myriad of ways, including a wide variety of tenants who saw their sales exceed the percentage rent threshold in the lease in the fourth quarter.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

While not a huge absolute number, since we strive for strong fixed rent in our leases, the broad-based percentage rent contribution in the quarter, particularly among our restaurants and soft goods tenants, over and above the fixed rent, is notable and contributed an additional $0.02 per share compared with last year's fourth quarter. It's a continuation of the trend that we've been seeing all year. As economic activity falls and higher interest rates affect everything from car loans to mortgage payments to deal underwriting, we would certainly expect to see a slowdown in consumer spending, which very well may cause retailer reticence and a slowdown in the period. Hasn't happened so far. Leasing, you know, that kind of change is pretty obvious, but that's okay.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

This business remains more solid. If history is any indication, Federal's real estate will outperform, given that superior demographics, along with a very strong diversification of rent. No one tenant makes up more than 2.8% of our rental stream. That tenant is TJX. To put a finer point on that, when you think about today's troubled tenants, Bed Bath, Party City, Rite Aid, Tuesday Morning, and even Regal Cinemas, of which we have no exposure, all of them combined comprise less than 1% of our 2023 forecasted ground stream. Average in-place base rent at our nine Bed Bath & Beyond and buybuy BABY locations is $15 a foot. Rent that will be more than replaceable as we navigate through the expected bankruptcy process with. We continue to opportunistically prune the portfolio of non-core and slower growing assets.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

In the fourth quarter and the last few days of the third quarter, we sold three smaller properties, all in Maryland, for proceeds of about $135 million at a combined flat 5% cap rate. One, a legacy residential community from Federal's earliest days. The second, a Federal-developed residential building on excess land in Towson, Maryland. The third, one of our earliest small retail developments in Rockville, Maryland. Those and earlier sale proceeds were reinvested into assets like Kingstowne and the Shops at Pembroke Gardens, which are generating better going-in yields and have significantly better growth prospects. The ability to sell non-core assets accretively is just one of the differentiating tools that we have to manage this company through economic cycles.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Of course, you only need to look at the $600 million plus construction and progress-- process number on the year-end balance sheet to identify a large source of future income, much of it leased, not yet reflected in the results. That's about it for my prepared remarks this afternoon. I'd like to leave you with one final thought before turning it over to Dan. The run-up in interest rates will surely pressure everybody's earnings to some extent in the years ahead, ours included, beginning in 2023. Dan will go through the expected impact in a few minutes. Keep in mind that Federal has been around since 1962 and has raised its dividend every year since 1967. This business plan doesn't need money to be virtually free to thrive. It's proven that.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

In terms of 2023, know that significant incremental rent from contracts that are already in place, particularly where demand is strongest at our mixed-use operating properties like Assembly Row, Pike & Rose, Santana Row, Darien, and CocoWalk, along with a full year of contributions from 2022 acquisitions, will more than cover incremental interest and lead Federal to what we believe will be an all-time record earnings year in 2023 with sector-leading growth. Dan?

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Thank you, Don. Hello, everyone. Our reported FFO per share of $1.58 for the fourth quarter and $6.32 for the year were up 7.5% and 13.5%, respectively, versus 2021. For both periods, we're at the top of our previously increased guidance range. Primary drivers for the outperformance, acceleration in occupancy up to 92.8%, a gain of 70 basis points for the quarter and 170 basis points for the year. Other drivers, higher percentage rent, which more than doubled in 2022 versus the previous year, continued strength in consumer traffic at our mixed-use assets, driving parking revenues higher. This was offset by higher property operating expenses and higher interest expense.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Comparable growth, our GAAP-based metric for same-store, in the fourth quarter and for the full year came in at 5.4% and 7.7%, respectively. Strong metrics despite the negative net impact of prior period rents and term fees. On a same-store cash basis, we came in at what we believe to be a sector-leading 5.5% for the quarter and 8.5% for the year. Excluding the negative impacts of prior period rents and term fees, cash same-store growth was 7.8% and 10.8% for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively. For those analysts and investors that keep track, we had $1.1 million of term fees for the fourth quarter against a 4Q 2021 level of $1.7 million.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Prior period rent contributions related to COVID impacted negotiated yields were $2 million this fourth quarter versus $4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Please note that in our investor presentation on our website, there are updated slides plus an appendix which provide all of these figures. Don already highlighted continued strength in leasing, let me point out a few more statistics of note. The 94.5% and 92.8% in leased and occupied metrics represented growth of 90 basis points and 170 basis points, respectively, over 2021. 20 and 70 basis points of sequential growth over the third quarter. We continued to see strength in our small shop leasing, which now stands at 90%, a level not seen since 2017, still short of our targeted and historical peak levels.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

The 80 basis points of relative pickup in our SNO spread over the course of 2022 demonstrates our ability to get tenants open and rent paying. More upside to come in 2023 as we target an SNO spread at more typical levels of 100 to 125 basis points long term. Don mentioned leasing activity has been strong to start 2023, and our pipeline of deals executed to date in the first quarter and those under executed LOI is in line so far with 2022's strong leasing volumes. Additionally, we remain optimistic that we can continue to drive favorable lease terms in 2023, including both strong rollover growth and sector-leading contractual rent bumps. A big driver of our growth in 2022 was the continued stabilization of a large portion of our redevelopment and expansion pipeline.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We expect that to be the case in 2023 as well. Having placed $800 million of projects into service in 2021 and 2022 at Assembly Row, Pike & Rose, and CocoWalk, we saw $24 million of incremental POI in 2022. We expect another roughly $12 million of incremental POI in 2023 just from those three projects alone. The balance of our development pipeline now stands at roughly $730 million, which will deliver incremental POI starting this year and continue for the next few years, but has less than $300 million remaining to spend. Now to the balance sheet and a quick update on our liquidity position.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We ended the year with $86 million of cash available and an undrawn $1.25 billion credit facility for total liquidity in excess of $1.3 billion. Our leverage metrics continue to be strong. Fourth quarter annualized net debt to EBITDA is roughly 6x. That metric is forecasted to improve over the course of 2023 as development POI comes online and occupancy drives higher. Our targeted level is in the low to mid 5x range. Fixed charge coverage was 3.7x for the fourth quarter and 4x for the full year. On to guidance. For 2023, we are introducing FFO guidance of $6.38-$6.58 per share.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

This represents 2.5% growth at the midpoint of $6.48 and 4% at the high end of the range. Despite the challenging capital markets environment and embedded headwinds, as promised, Federal will grow in 2023. This is driven by a comparable growth forecast of 2%-4%. This assumes occupancy levels will increase from 92.8% at 12/31, up above 93% by year-end 2023, although that progression will not be linear throughout the year. Additional contributions from our redevelopment and expansion pipeline will total $15 million-$18 million. For those modeling, let me direct you to our 8-K on page 16 and 17, where we provide our forecast of stabilized POI and timing by project. Accretion from our 2022 acquisitions being online for a full year will also contribute.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Those $500+ million of 2022 acquisitions are expected to outperform our original underwriting by at least 50 basis points. This will be offset by lower prior period collections, where the net 2022 level of $9 million is expected to fall to a range of $4 million-$6 million in 2023. At lower net term fees, we had $9.5 million in 2022 and forecast $5 million-$6 million in 2023, more in line with our historical averages. Despite over 100 basis points of headwinds, our comparable growth forecast is 2%-4% for 2023. It would be 3%-5% without the headwinds from prior period rents and term fees. Quarterly FFO cadence will have one quarter being the weakest, with sequential growth thereafter.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Other assumptions include $175 million-$200 million of spend on redevelopment and expansions at our existing properties, $175 million-$225 million of common equity issued throughout the year, refinancing our $275 million of unsecured notes, which mature in June in the mid 5% range. G&A in the $52 million-$56 million range for the year, and capitalized interest for 2023 is estimated at $20 million-$22 million, which includes the continued capitalization of interest at Santana West, given our change in leasing strategy from a single tenant leasing approach to a multi-tenant building as we build out tenant floors and add tenant amenities. Dispositions completed in 2022 contributed roughly $5 million of POI during the year. That POI will not be there in 2023.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We've assumed a credit reserve, excluding the impact of Bed Bath & Beyond, of roughly 75 basis points. With respect to Bed Bath, we are adding another 25 to 60 basis points of reserve, depending on the uncertain outcome with respect to this tenant. Please note, in 2023 and moving forward, we have less than 70 basis points of exposure as our Wynwood location had a natural expiration in January 2023 and has not been in our 2023 forecast since mid last year. As is our custom, this guidance does not reflect any acquisitions or dispositions in 2023, except what has already been announced. We will adjust for those as we go, given our opportunistic approach to both. This guidance also does not assume any tenants moving from cash basis to accrual basis revenue recognition.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Please note the expanded disclosure in our 8-K on page 30 provides a detailed summary of this guidance. Before we go to Q&A, let me take a minute to highlight the strength and the outperformance that our signature mixed-use retail assets demonstrated in 2022. The big four of Santana Row, Assembly Row, Pike & Rose, and Bethesda Row took a disproportionate hit during COVID because of government shutdowns in their respective markets. They now sit, they finished 2022 at 99% leased. Reported retail sales were 15%-20% higher than the prior year and are back up above pre-COVID levels. Consumer traffic was up 20% versus the prior year and 7% above pre-COVID levels. Comparable retail POI at these assets were up 30% versus 2021 and over 6% above pre-COVID levels.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We are forecasting comparable growth in retail POI for 2023 of 6%-8% at these four assets, given continued strength in leasing demand. The retail components of our mixed-use assets are unique and have driven and should continue to drive POI growth materially above that of a typical open-air shopping center, providing an additional point of differentiation between Federal and its peers. Our operational mixed-use capabilities in design, construction, leasing, operations are unrivaled, and a unique competitive advantage moving forward in the continued evolution of open-air retail. Capabilities that are applicable across our entire retail portfolio and a big reason why we expect that sector-leading retail growth for years to come. With that, operator, you can open up the line for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we pull for questions. Our first question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Juan Sanabria, Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research in REITs at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for the time. Just curious on the total portfolio to one of your later comments in your prepared remarks, where NOI sits relative to 2019 levels and when do you expect to get back to that? You kind of made the comment for the big four, but just curious on the broader sample set.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

We're back. Yeah, we're in fact, well above 2019 levels. You know, I know, Juan, that what Dan was just talking about was specifically with respect to the four mixed-use assets and, you know, for obvious reasons there. The whole portfolio is on overall back above 2019. It's the higher interest expense that effectively brings us back down to about the same FFO, but certainly operationally significantly above.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Craig Schmidt with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Thank you. I just wondered, if you could just give us what the drag will be on the increased interest expense, 2023 versus 2022?

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Roughly $0.30 per share.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Great.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Plus or minus, depending upon where we end up.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Okay. Just real quick, the small shop was relatively flat sequentially. Do you still see that as a major opportunity for growth on your POI?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah. Wendy, I don't know if you want to add to this or not, but I'm very positive about our small shop occupancy. You know, I think we're sitting there at 90% or so now, which is back to a place that we haven't been for quite some time, and we're not done. We got some more room to grow there.

[Wendy Seher, EVP and Eastern Region President at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

I would add to that there's a real sense of urgency on the leasing side, overall, especially on the small shops. Through COVID, the weaker guys, as we know, have gone away, and our small shops are thriving right now. Obviously, we're heading into maybe some headwinds, but some of the technologies and so forth that have come post-COVID are really driving sales for a lot of the retailers, including the restaurants.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

[Greg McGinniss, VP and Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Hey, good evening. Dan, I was hoping you could just touch on what would be driving you to either the bottom or top end of guidance this year.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Look, I think a big variable is what happens with the Bed Bath bankruptcy. I think that, probably at the top of the range, we'll expect to have a more normalized Chapter 11, where we'll expect to get a few boxes back. Whereas if it's a liquidation, that'll push us towards the bottom of the range. You know, I think that, you know, that's probably one of the bigger drivers that takes us either up or down.

[Greg McGinniss, VP and Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. if I could just... [audio distortion]

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

[Samir Khanal, Equity Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Hi there. Thanks for the question. Maybe you can touch upon the transaction market and kind of what you're seeing from, you know, pricing or cap rates today. I don't know if there's a way to bifurcate between sort of your, you know, suburban open-air centers versus any color you can provide in the lifestyle centers. That would be great. Thanks.

[Jeff Berkes, President and COO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah. Hey, Samir, it's Jeff. You know, not a lot of color because there's not a lot of transactions. You know, we're always in the market looking for stuff regardless of what's going on, but there's just not a lot out there right now. I mean, if you want a data point, you know, back in the day when the market was active, for the best grocery anchored centers or maybe 100 to 150 basis point spread cap rate over the 10-year treasury. We haven't seen many trades, and I don't expect to see a ton of trades this year. You know, kind of anybody's guess at this point.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

[Michael Goldsmith, US REITs Analyst at UBS]

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My question's on the comparable property growth guidance. Can you help reconcile kind of the moving pieces that generate your guidance of 2%-4% growth in X prior period in term fees, 3%-5% this year relative to last year's? Seemed like you're expecting a little bit less occupancy growth. Maybe walk through some of the other pieces. Then on capital interest, did that go from a potential headwind to tailwind this year? What are the implications for 2024?

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Look, I think the building blocks that kind of are comparable is kind of a combination of things that get us there. You know, I think we would expect, you know, I think contractual bumps which continue, you know, to be kind of sector leading, kind of north of 2.25%, and includes kind of some of the office. I think occupancy growth relative to where things were last year will add, I think, a good chunk of rollover because what's interesting is ours is a GAAP number, so the contractual rent bumps don't contribute as much. What really does is the rollover to rollover growth, which is the straight line rollover, which captures those rent bumps.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

So that should be a big driver, because of the progress we've made. You've got residential. I think we'll continue to see percentage rent and parking. Then, you know, we mentioned, the probably 100-130 basis points of credit reserve, then also about 100 basis points of term fee headwind, and prior period rent headwind that gets us kinda to that midpoint of that metric.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

[Craig Mailman, Director and Equity Research Analyst in Real Estate and Lodging Team at Citi]

Hey, guys. I just wanted to circle back up on the interest capitalization question. Just two questions on this, basically. What would guidance have been if you guys had burned or ceased capitalization on Santana West? Kind of from a timing perspective, even if there was no leasing, when would you have to just finally stop capitalizing there? Just secondly, the strategy shifts to the multi-tenant. What kind of demand are you guys seeing, if at all, in those smaller spaces? You know, are you guys doing built out suites or just trying to demise the space?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

It's a good question. It became pretty clear, as you know, we worked hard to get a full building user at Santana West. We shifted to that strategy. We talked about a little bit last year. We shifted to the strategy of building out the individual floors instead. The accounting for that is to capitalize, continue to capitalize. The reason for it, the business reason for that is that we do see more demand in that 50,000-100,000 sq ft user. There are tours that we're giving now. Obviously, you know what's going on with tech in Silicon Valley. I certainly don't have anything great to say about demonstrative progress there.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

That building's getting a lot of looks. We're very hopeful that this strategy of looking for 100,000 sq ft tenants rather than the full 350, 375 will be fruitful. It feels good that way. In terms of what that means on the accounting is, you know, you've got $250 million into a building at call it 5% or so, a year of carry on that. That winds up, you know, continuing at this point to be on the balance sheet, and effectively, at some point it'll wind up going through the P&L, but you can do the math on that.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.

[Haendel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst at Mizuho]

Hey, good evening out there. Don, I was intrigued by your comments on the better rent bumps and the superior long-term core growth profile of the portfolio. I remember a while back you provided a buildup of what you thought the portfolio could do over a longer term basis in terms of that core. Internally generated growth, I think it was like 3%-4%, which included some of the bumps, spreads, redev. I guess I was curious if you could give us an updated sense of what do you think the long-term core growth profile looks like now or could look like now with the improved bumps you're referencing, as well as maybe factoring some of the various no rent tailwinds coming online here?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah. That's fair, Haendel. I mean, look, you know, the general business in the shopping center business allows the portfolio to grow with common occupancy of a typical shopping center of 1.5%, 1.25%. It's what they do. We've been able to have long-term growth of 3%, 3.5%, something like that on an occupancy neutral basis. I feel very good about that. With respect to the comment I was making about the rent bumps, it's really. You know, we've talked about this in the past. A little bit of inflation is a really good thing in our business. Too much inflation certainly isn't. To the extent we get to a normalized level of inflation, it allows us to push more.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Wendy and that team is having success effectively with the ability of increasing or improving the economics for longer term deals because inflation is real, and everybody knows it. You're not, you know, you're not trying to push, you know, a noodle uphill. That long-term growth rate of 3.5%, I feel very good about.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Floris van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed with your question.

[Floris van Dijkum, Senior REIT Analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading]

Thanks, guys, I appreciate, you know, you throwing out guidance that is a little bit more adventuresome than some of the your retail brethren. Maybe if you can talk a little bit. As you know, not all space is created equal. I know you've been saying that for a long time, Don. One of the things that intrigues me about your portfolio and where I think people might be underestimating, the growth potential is, particularly in your small shop space, 'cause your rents are double your your anchor tenants. You talked a little bit about your lease percentage. How much of that is occupied? How much more do you expect to gain in terms of leased growth in 2023?

[Floris van Dijkum, Senior REIT Analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading]

Maybe if you can, you know, if we walk through the elements of your growth for 2023. You talked a little bit about, Dan, you talked about the 2.25%, you know, fixed bumps. You have an element of leases that you signed in 2023 that were, where you got a partial year, and obviously that those are gonna, you know, contribute in 2023 as well. You got your SNO and you got your spreads. If you do the math, I mean, it looks like you're gonna be well north of 4%, you know, NOI growth if I'm adding it up correctly.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah, I appreciate the question, Floris. Look, you know, if you add all those things up, yeah, it gets beyond the 4%. You know, you, you apply a credit reserve, you've got some headwinds and so forth. Yeah, look, you know, we're hopeful that our 2%-4% net comparable growth is a conservative estimate, and we hope that the strong rollover we're expecting in 2023, continued contractual rent bumps, continuing to be able to push occupancy, will continue to drive, you know, a strong core portfolio growth profile in 2023. You know, there are headwinds out there. You know, the 2%-4% reflects that.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

[Derek Johnston, Lead Analyst of North American REITs Research at Deutsche Bank]

Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. You mentioned earlier and obviously it's widely understood, you know, with debt costs of capital elevated, you know, what about tapping the equity markets as valuation here recovers? I think there's $200 million issuance at the midpoint. Really, guys, it seems to match the development spend. I guess, how do you view greater equity activity, you know, as a financing tool, you know, given the state of capital markets and as values recover? Thanks.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Derek, let me start, Dan add this. Look, there's a couple of principles involved here. The one is, I never wanna surprise our owners. I never want a whole bunch of equity out there at any one time. I'd like to do it in conservative amounts. As we go through a year, we opportunistically then obviously can turn that dial up or back based on, based on, you know, where we believe value lies and what the uses are. The most important thing is what is the use for that money. At the end of the day, to the extent we are very comfortable that we can use shareholder or debt holder proceeds to be able to create incremental value, that's what we will do. That's the driver always.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Because we don't have to the extent we don't have those uses, and even the development pipeline that you know, it's, it's far lower than it was. Only a couple of $100 million left to spend at this point. Lots of flexibility, and that's what I always wanna maintain with respect to the balance sheet here, is the ability to, to kinda take advantage opportunistically of what's going on in the marketplace to create value. I look at debt and equity similarly that way.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

[Anthony Powell, Director of Equity Research at Barclays]

Hi, good afternoon. It's a question on lease spreads. Good to see the acceleration in the fourth quarter. How are you balancing higher lease spreads versus maybe higher bumps? Are you seeing any tenant pushback in your conversations, or tenants just saying, "We need the space, and we like the space, so we're gonna accept the higher prices."

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah, look, these are an amalgamation of a number of deals. In any particular quarter, you'll see some deals that have higher rollover. You'll see some that are, you know, more anchor related versus small shop related. There's a giant mix. I don't want you to look and say, "I see a deceleration in leasing spreads in the fourth quarter." There's no, there's no trend there. The trend you should expect to see is actually higher rollovers in 2023 based on what we see in the pipeline. That's simply an opportunistic notion of being able to understand what spaces are coming due, where the demand is for that space, and that's what's in the pipeline, and that's opportunistic based on what's happening there.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

In every case, we're pushing for very high contractual bumps, associated with those leases. In total, the economic contribution is greater. I don't want you to just look at that lease rollover spread. I want you to look at it holistically in total, including the contractual bumps.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah, I think because demand is strong and continues to be strong, we found success in being able to push on both of those levers, you know, particularly in the last couple of quarters.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

[Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Thank you, and good evening. Just a question on the Santana West, 'cause that seems to be the delta versus the street. I think it was $0.20 is what you originally guided when you ceased capitalization. Now, obviously, great to hear that there's work going on and demand. I guess my question is: do you guys think that you were a little too conservative in ceasing capitalization? I understand that you stopped work on the project, but given, you know, markets are, you know, moving are fluid when it comes to leasing, do you think that maybe should have just left it as a capitalized project?

[Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler]

I'm just wondering, because all the other stuff that you guys are doing is great, but that capitalized interest seems to be the delta between, you know, the 2023 outlook and where the street is. I'm just trying to understand.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Alex, my point on that is. Dan, the direct answer to your question is no, I don't think we're too conservative on that. I think your inherent premise in what you're saying is that the accounting drives the business decision, and it's exactly the opposite. It is the business decision with the strategy toward the building that drives whatever the accounting is. I frankly didn't even know the accounting when we first talked about how, you know, we were gonna go after what tenant base we were gonna go after once we lost the first couple of big building users. No, I don't think so. I and the notion of looking at capitalized interest as a positive or negative thing with respect to 2023, here's the fallacy in it.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

What we're laying out in 2023, agreed, does not have an impact from Santana West. What it does is show the impact of everything else in this company. That's why that, you know, that operating growth is coming through. That's why the bottom line is coming through. Ideally, you will see as we move forward, rent on Santana West that more than pays for the interest expense. It's not like we're getting a benefit for that in 2023. We simply don't have any impact of Santana West in 2023. I just fundamentally, I think you're looking at it a little backwards.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Paulina Rojas with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

[Paulina Rojas Schmidt, Senior Analyst and Head of Strip Center Research at Green Street]

Hi, good evening. Last time we spoke, I think office traffic at Santana Row was still down materially versus pre-pandemic. I don't remember the exact figures, but maybe in the neighborhood of 30% down. Has that changed at all? At this point, what is your view of how those traffic patterns will look like in the midterm?

[Jeff Berkes, President and COO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Hey, Paulina, it's Jeff, I think I understand your question, I think you're talking about the number of people that come to work every day, Monday through Friday, at the office buildings at Santana Row. I'll tell you two things about that. One, that's a small part of the traffic, at Santana Row. Santana Row generates a ton of traffic over the year, the primary reason people are coming there is to shop, eat, and enjoy the property. The weekday traffic is building as well as return to office is ramping up in Silicon Valley. We do see that coming back and coming back strongly. Overall, that's a relatively small component.

[Jeff Berkes, President and COO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Like Dan said in his prepared remarks, you know, traffic today at Santana Row is above what it was in 2019. You know, we're in pretty good shape there, but I appreciate the question.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Hi. I guess looking at the future phases at Assembly, Pike & Rose, and Santana, whenever you think the time is right, I guess, what's the timeframe to reactivate those, various phases in the projects?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

That's a great question, Mike. There's an important underlying assumption here. You know, we love the development component of our business. There are certainly times like now where we turn down that spigot and, you know, aren't comfortable to be able to start construction. Don't let that misinform you to believe that that capacity and the work that we do with our team, which stays together during down cycles here, are making it shovel-ready. The idea is to be able to activate quicker than any of the competition. That's what we try to do. The ability to stay very tight on the not only with our contractors, with pricing, with entitlements for future phases at places like Assembly is front of mind all the time.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Whatever's going on in the market, Mike, and I don't have a crystal ball with respect to 2023 or 2024 or 2025, but I know we'll be back at it faster than most. That's the key from a competitive standpoint, you know, in terms of the way we look at it.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Please proceed with your question.

[Ki Bin Kim, Managing Director and Senior U.S. REIT Equity Analyst at Truist Securities]

Thanks. I'm probably gonna be able to point on Santana West, but, from a business standpoint, I'm actually curious if you go multi-tenant, and I would guess that maybe prolongs the lease-up timeframe. Even though you're capitalizing costs for longer, shouldn't the all-in cost expectation go up, therefore, the yield come down incrementally? I'm not sure if there's probably other variables to consider, but I was just curious if you can provide some color around that.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah. No, that's a very fair question. I'm not sure it will take longer. The reason is because we are building out the individual floors, so that work, you know, effectively a year's worth of work here is being done ahead of time. On timing, I think feeling pretty good. In terms of the extra carry and potentially on cost, yes, I would expect those to be incrementally higher. We also have benefits in terms of our base building and lots of other things that are reducing the cost of Santana West. I guess the last point to really make, just make sure you're not overemphasizing this one building that makes up, you know, a point and a half of the 1.5% of the asset base of the company.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

You know, when you kind of sit back and you take, like, our entire office portfolio and you back out, just Santana West, just alone, even our ongoing other buildings which are under construction, in total, they're 92% leased. If you knock out the one that's being built here at Pike & Rose, that's not finished yet, they're 97% leased. The product, and this is really important from a real estate person's perspective, the product is right all the way through, and it's different product when it's attached to Santana Row, Assembly Row, Pike & Rose, et cetera.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Craig Schmidt with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Oh, great. I just, one, I wanted to congratulate Jan Sweetnam on his new role of chief investment officer.

[Jan Sweetnam, Chief Investment Officer at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Thank you, Craig.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Thanks, Craig.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Are you staying West Coast based, or will you be moving east?

[Jan Sweetnam, Chief Investment Officer at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Still West Coast based, but spending some more time in the East Coast, Craig.

[Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities]

Okay. Okay. Then just maybe, you know, what are some of the, you know, opportunities you most want to pursue in your new role?

[Jan Sweetnam, Chief Investment Officer at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

That's a good question, Craig. Look, there's a feels like there's gonna be some increase in product out there, Craig, and some new product for us to look at. Expanding our base in Phoenix, I think, is gonna be a big focus for us. I, I feel pretty good that there's gonna be some larger, good product for us that we can buy creatively. Nothing set in stone, you know, feet ready to go, and we'll see where it takes us.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Greg, are you there? Guess we'll take the next...

[Greg McGinniss, VP and Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Yeah. That's the second time I've done that this earning season. Good at muting. Thank you. Sorry. Just a couple follow-up questions. One is on the disposition pipeline. I think you noted $350 million on the last call. Just curious if you're still pursuing the remainder of those transactions.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah. You know, essentially, we got done, you know, the one Rollingwood, which was $68 million. We're still in process on about $130 million of additional acquisitions. We'll see if we get them over. I would say, the balance, we determined that it didn't meet the timing parameters we needed or the pricing parameters, and we stayed disciplined and decided not to move forward. There's, you know, that there's a possibility we bring those back later in the year when there's a more receptive capital markets environment.

[Greg McGinniss, VP and Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay, great. On the resi occupancy, which fell quarter-over-quarter, was that because of the Rollingwood sale, or are there some other reasons for that?

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

That's just timing, a little bit. We're pushing hard on rate. You know, as turnouts come, we don't wanna leave money on the table. That balance between rate and occupancy is always, you know, it's always part of the formula. You know, we pushed just a bunch harder on rate. You'll see that come back in 2023.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Juan Sanabria, Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research in REITs at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi. Just curious if we should expect any action on the balance sheet in terms of your 2024 expirations, given you've got a couple chunky pieces of debt coming due, and kinda how you guys are maybe thinking about getting ahead of that?

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Yeah, look, I think we're gonna look to be opportunistic like we always are. I think we're gonna, you know, we created a significant amount of capacity to give us the flexibility to be opportunistic, completely undrawn on a billion and a quarter, will give us flexibility from a timing perspective. We expect to access the bond markets throughout 2023 to address the maturities that we have. The June maturity as well as the January of 2024 maturity.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

[Michael Goldsmith, US REITs Analyst at UBS]

Thanks so much for taking another one from me. The leased to occupied spread compressed by 50 basis points, now down to 170 basis points. On the one hand, you're monetizing all the leasing that you're doing, but maybe on the other side, you know, there's maybe a little bit less benefit in the pipeline. Like, how do you think about it? It seems like you've been very positive on being able to monetize it sooner, but just wanted to kinda get your thoughts on either side of that argument.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Well, Michael, I want to make sure we agree on the premise. The leased percentage continues to get better, get higher. The primary thing there is that we continue to lease up the portfolio. Feel very good about that. Now, that's a job of that leasing team, and that's working out pretty darn well. The job of the tenant coordinators, the job of the construction people, the job is to get those tenants open. Frankly, that has just been as amazing as leasing is, and leasing's had record year, record years. Tenant coordinators and that part of the construction of those spaces to get them open is just stellar.

[Don Wood, CEO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

I hope when you look through, you know, what's important about leased versus occupied, that, you know, if you're in the middle of COVID, it's great to have a whole bunch of leasing done and not a bunch of stuff open as you come back up. But to get to normalized operations, you want that as tight as you possibly can to be able to turn a contract into rent. I love where we are, in fact, because we're doing both, increasing that lease and more than increasing that amount by occupancy.

[Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Just to add another thing that's not in that 170 basis points of signed on not opened, signed on SNO, is our non-comparable pool where we have an equivalent amount of POI that's expected to come on from what we're delivering. Stuff, buildings that are not yet placed into service, where we have leasing done that contracts, leases that are done, and it's the equivalent of that same, 170 basis point spread. That's an added differentiator and an advantage that none of our peers have because they don't have the scale of that non-comparable pool.

[Operator]

As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Ms. Leah Brady for closing comments.

[Leah Brady, VP of Investor Relations at Federal Realty Investment Trust]

Thank you, everyone, and we look forward to seeing many of you at the Citi conference.

[Operator]

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Dan Guglielmone, EVP and CFO
• Don Wood, CEO
• Jan Sweetnam, Chief Investment Officer
• Jeff Berkes, President and COO
• Leah Brady, VP of Investor Relations
• Wendy Seher, EVP and Eastern Region President

Analysts

• Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler
• Anthony Powell, Director of Equity Research at Barclays
• Craig Mailman, Director and Equity Research Analyst in Real Estate and Lodging Team at Citi
• Craig Schmidt, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst in REITs at Bank of America Securities
• Derek Johnston, Lead Analyst of North American REITs Research at Deutsche Bank
• Floris van Dijkum, Senior REIT Analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading
• Greg McGinniss, VP and Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank
• Haendel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst at Mizuho
• Juan Sanabria, Managing Director of U.S. Equity Research in REITs at BMO Capital Markets
• Ki Bin Kim, Managing Director and Senior U.S. REIT Equity Analyst at Truist Securities
• Michael Goldsmith, US REITs Analyst at UBS
• Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
• Paulina Rojas Schmidt, Senior Analyst and Head of Strip Center Research at Green Street
• Samir Khanal, Equity Research Analyst at Evercore ISI