Marsh & McLennan Companies Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 20, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to

Speaker 1

Marsh and McLennan's Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. 1st Quarter 2023 Financial Results and Supplemental Information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10 ks, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

Speaker 2

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q1 results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call is Mark McGivney, our CFO and the CEOs of our businesses, Martin South of Marsh, Dean Klasseur of Guy Carpenter, Martin Forlan of Mercer and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, Head of Investor Relations. Marsh McLennan had a strong start to 2023.

Speaker 2

Our Q1 results were excellent and we are well positioned for another good year. Top line momentum continued as we generated 9% underlying revenue growth on top of 10% growth in the Q1 of last year. We had strong growth across most businesses, segments and geographies with underlying growth at Marsh, Guy Carpenter and Mercer accelerating compared to the 4th quarter. Adjusted operating income grew 13% versus a year ago, reflecting our strong growth. Our adjusted operating margin expanded by 150 basis points compared to the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 2

And adjusted EPS growth was strong at 10% building on 16% in the Q1 of 2020 to. In addition to delivering terrific results, we continue to execute on acquisitions. On April 1, we completed the merger of BT Super with Mercer Super Trust, creating one of Australia's most competitive super funds with approximately 850,000 members $63,000,000,000 of assets under management. I'm pleased with our performance, especially when viewed in the context of the volatile macroeconomic environment. The global economy has been contending with high inflation, aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks, some recent bank failures and the effects of geopolitical instability.

Speaker 2

We have a track record of resilience across economic cycles and there are factors that support continued growth in our business. Although the outlook for real GDP growth continues to be under pressure, inflation remains elevated, driving higher insured values and loss costs. P and C insurance and reinsurance rates continue to increase as carriers price to account for the rising frequency and severity of catastrophe losses, social inflation and higher reinsurance costs. Healthcare costs are trending higher and employers expect further increases in the years ahead. Labor markets remain tight in most major economies with 3.5% unemployment and nearly 10,000,000 unfilled jobs in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And short term interest rates are at the highest level since the financial crisis lifting fiduciary income. Change and uncertainty create complexity as well as opportunity for clients. Marsh McLennan's leadership and capabilities and risk strategy and people help them navigate shifting landscapes. Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions, primary insurance rate increases persisted with the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index up 4% overall in line with the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Property rate increases accelerated to 10% and casualty pricing was up in the low single digit range. Workers' compensation was flat and financial and professional liability insurance rates were down mid single digits. Cyber insurance saw the highest increase in our index, although the rate of increase continued to moderate. In reinsurance market conditions remain challenging from January 1 through April 1. Risk appetite for property catastrophe reinsurance remains constrained.

Speaker 2

Reinsurers continue to push for structural changes and tighten terms and conditions. Limited new capital has entered the market to support property could be risks. At April renewals, U. S. Property cat reinsurance rates saw increases of 40% to 60% on average for non loss affected accounts with higher increases for loss affected business.

Speaker 2

U. S. Casualty reinsurance rate increases were more modest. In Japan, property cat rates were up 15% to 25%. The impact of rate increases on ceded premiums was mitigated by higher retentions.

Speaker 2

We continue to help our clients manage through these challenging market conditions. Now I'd like to take a moment to provide an update on our recent strategic initiatives and highlight some of the steps we've taken. As we discussed last quarter, our leadership team is focused on delivering the full capabilities of Marsh McLennan to our clients, continuously improving the client and colleague experience, efficiently managing capital and driving growth and value for shareholders. There are meaningful opportunities at the intersections of our businesses where our colleagues can deliver the benefits of our scale, data, insights and solutions that are highly valued by clients. In February, we named Flavio Piccolomini to lead Marsh McLennan for international and Pat Tomlinson to lead U.

Speaker 2

S. And Canada. Since then, we have also named additional Marsh McLennan region and country leaders. These leaders are driving greater client impact through enhanced collaboration, while at the same time maintaining the strength of the value propositions of each of our businesses. This deliberate focus on collaboration is already yielding benefits.

Speaker 2

Let me share some examples. Guy Carpenter Securities and Mercer Investments successfully arranged an insurance linked securities transaction for a major insurer to transfer earthquake risk. This type of win, the first of its kind in the insurer's market was possible because of the combined strength of Guy Carpenter's leadership in earthquake parametric structuring and Mercer's deep local investment and regulatory expertise. Marsh and Guy Carpenter brought the best of our capabilities to a complex clean energy opportunity. Together, we facilitated a project to bring clean hydropower to New York City from Canada and advanced New York State's goal of obtaining 70% of electricity statewide from renewable sources by 2,030.

Speaker 2

Mercer Career, an economist from Oliver Wyman delivered an executive compensation solution for a joint venture between 2 major medical device manufacturers. Mercer designed a new equity compensation rewards program for the joint venture, while Oliver Wyman provided the modeling work for the rewards. As we drive deeper collaboration, we are also finding new ways to operate, reduce complexity and organize for impact. As we noted in January, we took actions to align our workforce and skill sets with evolving needs, rationalize technology and reduce our real estate footprint. We see opportunities for savings beyond the actions we have already taken.

Speaker 2

Mark will provide further details, but overall, we now expect roughly $300,000,000 of savings by 2024 with total cost to achieve these savings of 375 to $400,000,000 Our leadership appointments, go to market collaboration and restructuring actions are an opportunity to accelerate impact for clients, reinvest in our capabilities and to be more efficient and connected. Before I turn to our results, I want to comment on ESG. Our recently released ESG report highlights the many ways in which Marsh McLennan is meeting these challenges and helping clients better manage their strategies. We have a track record of ESG engagement and it's an area where we continue to see an opportunity to support our colleagues, clients and communities. Sometimes this work takes place at the macro or community level like Guy Carpenter's work helping communities build resilience in the face of natural disasters through community based catastrophe insurance.

Speaker 2

But more often it takes place in our work with clients such as helping clients navigate involving climate landscape or our efforts to help organizations address gender and racial pay equity and ensure fairness in rewards. We are proud of the work we do in this area and consider it a privilege to help clients progress their ESG strategies. Now let me turn to our Q1 financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.53 which is up 10% from a year ago or 12% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 9%.

Speaker 2

Underlying revenue grew 11% in RIS and 5% in consulting. Marsh was up 9%, Guy Carpenter grew 10%, Mercer grew 7% and Oliver Wyman was flat after growing revenue nearly 40% over the last 2 years. Overall, the Q1 saw adjusted operating income growth of 13% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 150 basis points year over year. Turning to our outlook, we are well positioned for 2023 and continue to expect mid single digit or better underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS. Our outlook contemplates that current macro conditions persist.

Speaker 2

But as we discussed earlier, there's uncertainty regarding the economic backdrop, which could turn out to be different than our assumptions. In summary, the Q1 was a great start to the year for Marsh McLennan. Our business delivered strong performance and we continue to execute well on our strategic initiatives. I'm proud of the focus and determination of our colleagues and the value that they deliver to our clients and shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our first quarter results were outstanding and reflected continued momentum in underlying growth, strong margin expansion and double digit growth in adjusted EPS. Our consolidated revenue increased 7% in the first ordered at $5,900,000,000 with underlying growth of 9%. Operating income was $1,700,000,000 and adjusted operating income increased 13 percent to $1,800,000,000 Our adjusted operating margin increased 150 basis points to 31.2%. GAAP EPS was $2.47 and adjusted EPS was $2.53 up 10% over last year.

Speaker 3

Looking at risk and insurance services, 1st quarter revenue was $3,900,000,000 up 10% compared with a year ago or 11% on an underlying basis. This result marks the 8th consecutive quarter of 8% or higher underlying growth in RIS continues the best stretch of growth in nearly 2 decades. Adjusted operating income increased 17 percent to $1,400,000,000 and our adjusted operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 38.6%. At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2,700,000,000 up 8% from the Q1 of last were 9% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 11% growth in the Q1 of last year and reflects acceleration from the Q4.

Speaker 3

Growth in the Q1 reflected excellent retention and strong new business. In U. S. And Canada, underlying growth was 7% for the quarter, a solid result given the continued headwind from lower M and A and Capital Markets activity. In international, underlying growth was strong at 10% and comes on top of 11% growth in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Asia Pacific was up 11%, EMEA was up 10% and Latin America grew 10%. Guy Carpenter's revenue was $1,100,000,000 up 7% or 10% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth across all regions and Global Specialties and reflecting the tighter reinsurance market conditions. In the consulting segment, 1st quarter revenue was $2,000,000,000 up 1% from a year ago or 5% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $411,000,000 and adjusted operating income was $406,000,000 up 1%, reflecting continued foreign exchange headwinds and the softer quarter at Oliver Wyman. Our adjusted operating margin in consulting was Mercer's revenue was $1,300,000,000 in the quarter, up 7% on an underlying basis.

Speaker 3

Career revenue increased 12%, the 8th straight quarter of double digit growth and reflected continued demand in rewards, talent strategy and workforce transformation. Health underlying growth was 12% and reflected strength in employer and government segments and momentum across all regions. Wealth grew 2% on an underlying basis, driven by continued strength in defined benefits consulting, partly offset by a decline in investment management due to continued capital market headwinds. Our assets under management were $354,000,000,000 at the end of the Q1, up 3% sequentially, but down 9% from the Q1 of last year due to market declines and foreign exchange that more than offset positive net flows. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the Q1 was $687,000,000 which was flat on an underlying basis.

Speaker 3

As John noted, this follows a nearly 40% increase in Oliver Wyman's revenue over the past 2 years. Recent sales activity has been encouraging, however, suggesting we could see a return to modest growth in Oliver Wyman in the 2nd quarter. Foreign exchange was a $0.04 headwind in the Q1. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a $0.02 headwind in the second quarter and mostly neutral in the second half. I want to provide an update on the restructuring program we discussed last quarter.

Speaker 3

Based on our plans today, we expect total charges related to this program of between $375,000,000 $400,000,000 To date, we have incurred nearly we expect to achieve total savings of approximately $300,000,000 by 20 24 with to $180,000,000 realized in 2023 and the balance in 2024. Our other net benefit credit was $58,000,000 in the quarter. For the full year 2023, we continue to expect our other net benefit credit will be about $235,000,000 Investment income was $2,000,000 in the quarter in the first quarter on a GAAP basis or $4,000,000 on an adjusted basis. This compares to $17,000,000 of investment income in the Q1 of 2022 on an adjusted basis. Interest expense in the Q1 was $136,000,000 up from $110,000,000 in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 3

This reflects an increase in long term debt and higher interest rates on commercial paper, which we use for efficient working capital management. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $150,000,000 of interest expense in the 2nd quarter and approximately $575,000,000 for the full year. Our effective adjusted tax rate in the Q1 was 25% compared with 23.1% in the Q1 of last year. Our tax rate benefited from favorable discrete items, the largest of which was the accounting for share based compensation similar to a year ago. Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%.

Speaker 3

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it's reasonable to assume a tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2023. Turning to capital management and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $13,000,000,000 This includes the $600,000,000 of senior notes we issued in March. Our next scheduled debt maturity is October 2023 when $250,000,000 of senior notes mature.

Speaker 3

Our cash position at the end of the Q1 was $1,000,000,000 Uses of cash in the quarter totaled 876,000,000 included $296,000,000 for dividends, dollars 280,000,000 for acquisitions and $300,000,000 for share repurchases. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4,000,000,000 of capital in 2023 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M and A pipeline develops. While there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy, we feel good about the momentum in our business and there are factors in the macro environment that remain supportive of growth. I would also note that while our current outlook contemplates margin expansion in the Q2, we expect it will be more modest than in the other quarters, reflecting the talent investments we continue to make last year, timing of annual raises and the continued rebound in expenses such as T and E relative to last year.

Speaker 3

Overall, our strong start leaves us well positioned for another good year in 2023. Based on our outlook today, for the full year, we continue to expect mid single digit or better underlying growth, margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we're ready to begin Q and A.

Speaker 4

Thank you. We will

Speaker 1

now begin the question and answer session. And in the interest of addressing questions from as many participants as possible, we ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. One moment please. And our first question comes from the line of David Motamedian with Evercore ISI.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. I had a question just on the increased cost saves from the restructuring. So a pretty big increase in that target. I'm wondering, John, if maybe you could just talk about the sources

Speaker 6

of those

Speaker 5

benefits and if this is all we if there's anything more that we could expect potentially in the future?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, David, and good morning. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're excited about the opportunities at the intersections of our businesses. We're being more deliberate and focused on areas of collaboration and that's creating both revenue and expense or efficiency opportunities for us. I shared or spoke about the news about Flavio and Pat's appointment.

Speaker 2

So I'm excited about that and the other region leaders and country leaders that we put in place to really capture these opportunities for us. So, but from an efficiency point of view, they're in the similar areas to what we talked about on the Q4 call earlier this year. It's in the area of to talent of course and reskilling and moving talent to important growth opportunities. And I would point out, we are reinvesting as well, although the savings we talked about, that's net of reinvestment. Beyond people, it's technology and real estate.

Speaker 2

And so it's our best estimate at the moment, but again, we're going to continue to look for opportunities

Speaker 5

on the way. Got it.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Sorry, go ahead.

Speaker 2

Go ahead. Sorry, David, follow-up.

Speaker 5

I guess I would just follow-up on that and just ask, talent is one that you had mentioned. I'm just wondering, The Marsh operational excellence program and using centers of excellence, I'm just wondering how many employees do you have in these centers and where you think you can get that to over what time period?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's we're not in the early stages of the game in terms of mid and back office efficiency opportunity. I would point out it's broader than Marsh or have similar work underway at Mercer and at Guy Carpenter as well. There's still opportunities in front, but we're also still investing in capabilities, including in talent and in technology to support these efforts. And so that will drive further efficiencies for us down the road. Thank you, David.

Speaker 2

Operator, next question. Thank you. And

Speaker 4

our next question comes

Speaker 1

from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

Operator

Hey, good morning. So I had a question on organic growth and the acceleration you reported in the Q1 in the RIS division. Just wondering to what extent results benefited from sort of one off type timing of business type things or were there other factors that you think are more sustainable in nature?

Speaker 2

Yes. Sure, Jimmy, and good morning. Yes, very pleased with the start to the year. As you noted and I pointed out in my prepared remarks, It's an acceleration from our growth in the Q4. I talked about some of the macros that are supportive of growth, not just in RIS, but in our business more broadly.

Speaker 2

But I also want to point out, we've invested in talent in growth areas. We've deployed capital in markets that we think have strong growth fundamentals. And we've also been quite focused all throughout the company in investing in our sales operations capabilities and tools as well. There's nothing really one off about what happened in the Q1. And we feel good about feel good again about the revenue growth.

Speaker 2

Maybe I'll ask Martin to share some details and then Dean to give a little bit more color of where we saw some of the strong growth in RIS in the quarter.

Speaker 6

Thank you, John. I'd be delighted to, yes. We're very pleased with the strong organic growth of 9% in Q1, which is on top of 11% posted in Q1 2022, our strongest quarter last year and better than the full year growth of 8%. Solid growth is across international 10%, APAC at 11%, EMEA at 10%, LAC at 10%, U. S.

Speaker 6

And Canada at 7%. And as expected, the U. S. And Canada results were once again impacted through tough constant transactional risk and elevated M and A, SPAC and capital markets activity beginning of 2022 and the overall 9% growth in the quarter was on top of 11% in Q1 'twenty two. The specialty growth was good.

Speaker 6

Credit specialties, construction, aviation and marine cargo easily overset the drop in M and A growth. Renewal growth is very strong in U. S. And Canada fueled by the new business we put on in 2022 and stronger client retention and reduced lots business, which is very pleasing. So we feel very good how we're positioned.

Speaker 6

We're very good about our talent, the capabilities in the business and the consistency of the performance across the book and over a number of quarters.

Speaker 2

All right. Great. Thanks, Martin. Dean, you want to share some thoughts on the reinsurance market?

Speaker 7

Thanks, Sean. Similar to Martin, we're very pleased with Guy Carpenter's 10% underlying growth in the quarter, again following 11% growth in the Q1 of 2022. We had very strong growth, consistent growth across all of our regions globally and despite significant headwinds in the ILS Capital market impacting retrocession placements, our global specialty team had a very, very strong Q1. Certainly, our results reflect tightening market conditions and restrictions in capacity, as John noted. But I think demand for our advice and solutions remains very, very strong in a very challenging environment for our clients.

Speaker 7

We think the marketplace will be a pricing tailwind moving throughout 2023 beyond. And keep in mind, at Guy Carpenter, we hired significant in the marketplace the last 3 years. And that showed up with record new business levels in 2022 with very strong momentum into the Q1 and beyond.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Dean. Jimmy, do you have a follow-up?

Operator

Yes. Just a similar question on Oliver Wyman. I think Mark mentioned that you expect modest growth in the Q2. But should we assume that the results this quarter were impacted by just economic uncertainty and to the extent that continues, then that's a business that will see slower growth through the course of this year.

Speaker 2

Sure, Jimmy. I'll ask Nick to jump in, but I want to reiterate again, there's a step change in the size of Oliver Wyman's business over the last couple of years. Is up 40% growth. And so there is good demand for our capabilities at Oliver Wyman. But Nick, maybe you could talk a little bit more about the Q1 and what you're seeing in the pipeline at the moment?

Speaker 8

Thank you very much for the question, Jimmy. We've noted this coming. I think as I was looking back over the transcript, 4 or 5 quarters, I've had the question about economic uncertainty and growth. And you can see from the business headlines, it's a tougher environment for consulting firms right now. We have flat underlying growth.

Speaker 8

We have added some size through excellent acquisitions. Even at that level, I'm confident that we continue to gain share. It's a fragmented market. It's falling back from the peaks of the last couple of years. And we signaled in Q4 a slowing in our sales as our clients and probably a little bit us as well paused after a torrid 2 years that we were taking stock, they were taking stock.

Speaker 8

In our clients' cases, there was that economic uncertainty that you've highlighted. I'll add on top of that the regular drumbeat of deal driven revenues in our private equity practice and across our industry practices also remains depressed. I'm extremely confident for the future. We continue to be selected to support clients in significant transformations around the world. We have growth in a range of our businesses.

Speaker 8

Our India, Middle East and Africa business where we had a good acquisition last year is growing strongly. Our top sectors in the public sector, automotive and manufacturing and energy, so quite broad based. Our Lippincott Brands and Innovation Business, our economic Our digital practice continues well. And as I said before, we've been preparing for All counts cyclical offerings and our recent restructuring practice, although it's small, is growing strongly. So we generally guide that through the cycle we expect mid to high single digit growth, but last year we're obviously much higher than this.

Speaker 8

We're now in the slower part of the cycle. As Mark said, we are currently expecting modest growth in Q2.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Nick. Before we leave the revenue growth story, I want to I'll ask Martijn to jump in here as well. We had a terrific quarter at Mercer, particularly strong growth in both career and our benefits business, but also a rebound in investments. Martijn, maybe you could share some thoughts.

Speaker 9

Yes. Thank you, John. And indeed, we're very pleased with our results, 7% overall and following a 6% Q1 last year. It's across all the regions. And I would say there's the current macroeconomic environment is really supportive of the services that we bring to market, high inflation and interest rate, volatile capital market, well funded defined benefit plans, tight labor markets, demand for digital health services, new ways of working.

Speaker 9

And we've made quite a lot of investments as well in clear strategy, And therefore, I would say that these market conditions combined with clarity of our strategy, our investment are conducive to this kind of growth. The pipeline that we see, the sales that we are entering Q2 with is strong and we have good visibility in the next quarter and probably a little bit over. Of course, we we're always monitoring the macroeconomic conditions as we've discussed with Oliver Wyman. But over the years, we've also invested in diversifying our portfolio towards faster growth elements and more recurring businesses in the portfolio. So it looks solid for the continuity in the year.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Martin. Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our next question comes from

Speaker 1

the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning. I hope the question is not out of the left field, but I want to hear I'm Curious about any comments on the U. S. Federal Trade Commission proposal to get rid of non competes. One of your peers commented publicly that they were against that.

Speaker 10

Any color? Did you guys make a comment and do most is it correct that most producers in the U. S. Do have non competes in their contracts?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike. I don't think there's a lot to report on here. We, of course, are always monitoring any potential regulatory changes or possible impacts on our business. We're certainly very well aware of the FTC proposal and we've offered feedback through a number of different industry channels. We think Marsh and McLennan is an employer of choice in a very competitive industry.

Speaker 2

We see a healthy environment for sure. And there really aren't non competes in businesses for our producers. And if you read the trade press, you see pretty active market for talent. It's a market that we're a net winner in, but nonetheless there's an active market in talent moving around throughout the industry.

Speaker 10

Okay, Understood. My follow ups on the good better than expected consulting results at XR over Wyman. Just digging in maybe more, it sounds like from your comments, you're not really calling out any kind of one offs. Just kind of curious if you'd be willing to share whether the results were better than you internally had expected given the kind of macro outlook, especially in like Korea or things really just we're maybe focusing too much on some of the headlines we read and things underneath the surface aren't as bad as some of the headlines might suggest?

Speaker 2

Look, I think the Yes, yes. No, thanks Mike. Look, the economy has proven to be quite resilient, right? There's no question about that. I think when you think about Mercer's career business, there are services that we provide that were probably more discretionary in the past than they are in the current environment.

Speaker 2

Martin also noted how we've really tried to move into and deploy capital into more growth markets. We have high expectations for our businesses. And so again, we're pleased with the start to the year was good terrific growth. Martin talked about the environment. It remains quite strong.

Speaker 2

So no major surprises, but again, we're pleased with the start to the year. Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our next question comes from

Speaker 1

the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 11

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the savings program. Can you give us a sense of how much of those 160 to 180 hit your results in the Q1? And I'm also interested in getting a breakdown between RIS and Consulting?

Speaker 11

And also can you give us a sense of the pacing for whatever stays are left and how that should hit results for the balance of the year?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks Elyse for the question. Mark, you want to talk a bit more about it?

Speaker 9

Yes Elyse, we haven't

Speaker 3

been terribly specific, but I'll try to be helpful. So in terms of the Yes, how much hit in the Q1? I think we took a lot of action in the Q4 of last year as you saw through the size of the charges. So I think it's probably a reasonable assumption if you wanted to assume a ratable pacing of the $180,000,000 to $180,000,000 throughout this year, that's probably not bad. And as John noted earlier, that's net of reinvestment, so that will fall to the bottom line.

Speaker 3

In terms of split across businesses, we haven't been specific there, but you could look at the portion of charges and some of our disclosures and make a rough approximation there as well. And so I think ratable spreading of the $160,000,000 to $180,000,000 through this year is not a bad way to go.

Speaker 2

You have a follow-up, Elyse?

Speaker 11

Yes. On the reinsurance side, you guys have highlighted that's an area where you've hired a lot of talent over the last few years. I think I've also seen recently, you might have lost some talent, which we often see in the industry. So just as you think about like the tailwinds of strong pricing in that business, which came up earlier, do you think we can continue to see double digit organic growth within that business as we kind of see the full impact of the mid year renewals and beyond?

Speaker 2

Sure, Elyse. Look, again, it was a terrific start to the year. I'm very proud of our team. It's a very difficult marketplace and helping our insurance company clients navigate in a very, very challenging market. And it obviously has a follow on effect on our clients at Marsh as well.

Speaker 2

And so we're investing in our capabilities there and are well positioned for growth. It is an active talent market. As I said earlier, it's from a talent point of view, I really like how we're positioned. Our focus from a talent value proposition is about being your best at Marsh McLennan and all of our businesses. And again, we've been a net winner there.

Speaker 2

From time to time, obviously, we do have some voluntary turnover, but the turnover you may have read about, it won't impact the trajectory of Guy Carpenter or our business. So we'll see where the market heads. Both Dean and I commented, Property cat is the big headline at the moment. That's A line of business. It's most acute here in the United States.

Speaker 2

We have a much bigger, broader business than that, but demand for our services there remains quite strong. So we look forward to a good year at Guy Carpenter. Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And And our next question comes from the

Speaker 1

line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 12

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I was hoping to drill into the retirement business and just any comments on how the economic backdrop may be impacting the business and Providing any benefits.

Speaker 2

Sure, Robert. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll ask Martin to unpack some of the investment Mercer Wealth results overall. Martin?

Speaker 9

Yes. No, my pleasure to do so. Thanks for the question, Robert. The it was a good quarter for our defined benefit business. And basically, the market condition, the volatility, there's a lot that we can do to help clients navigate through these changes.

Speaker 9

And I'm pretty proud of the team that has been quite innovative and proactive in addressing these challenges. With the rise of interest rate, even though the asset side of the pension plans are depressed through equity, we've seen a great improvement in the funding of these plans. And when the funding of these plans become better, a lot of our clients looked for ways to divest the liabilities and assets to insurers. So we're seeing activities there in the buyout space and that has fueled the DB consulting business. So that being said, of course, the DB segment itself on the market is in structural decline.

Speaker 9

So underneath this, you'll continue to see this. But in the meantime, with the volatility, it does require quite a lot of work and we're happy to help clients through these times. The other side of that equation is also the investment side. So on the consulting side, again, we were very busy helping through the volatility, the decline in equity, etcetera. And our OCIO business, which is directly related, we're taking basis points off of the value of assets as a way to pay for the services we render.

Speaker 9

And of course, when the value of assets are depressed, our revenue goes down, but we have net flows into that business. It's a business that has very good long term growth through net flows, through return. It's just been a more difficult period over the last year and a half. We're seeing still quarter over quarter like year over year headwinds because the decline in market really started later in Q2 and then through Q3 last year, so that pressure on the year over year basis should ease out at current if the current AUM value stay at current level, we should see that starting to turn around in Q3.

Speaker 2

Terrific. Thank you. Robert, do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 12

Yes, thanks. And just one follow-up. Are you seeing any benefit from China reopening in RIS and just wondering if that's something you expect could potentially be a tailwind as we progress through the year?

Speaker 2

It's hard to say overall, Robert. I mean, what I would tell you is that our business in China has performed well, even through, if you want to call it, the shutdown of the economy. So we've had good solid growth in our business, both on the Mainland and in Hong Kong. I think, obviously, I think broadly speaking, the reopening of that economy should ease some of the economic uncertainty all around the world. And to the extent that that could be helpful from a macro point of view, we certainly are we're certainly pleased with those developments.

Speaker 2

But It's hard to draw a direct correlation. We haven't seen a meaningful uptick, for example, in our in growth in China since the reopening. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our next

Speaker 1

question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

Operator

Thanks. Good morning. I know we've talked about this in the past, John, but I was hoping you could walk us through the impact of higher fiduciary income on margins. I'm asking specifically about Q2 where you're talking about more cautious margin expansion expectations despite the fact that at least in the Q1, fiduciary income was up like 2,000 percent?

Speaker 2

Look, obviously, fiduciary income is a factor in our overall results. We don't look at it separately. We're constantly trying to balance near term performance delivering excellent results in the near term with I'm also investing in the capabilities that are going to lead to sustainable growth in the future. We're very thoughtful about how we manage our expense base that leads to very few surprises for us around our results. And I think we've spread that needle well, if you will, nailed that balance over the course of the last couple of years.

Speaker 2

So we're very pleased with the start to the year from a margin point of view. As we've talked about in the past, margins are particularly in a quarter are not our primary objective. It's an outcome of the way we've run the business. We've had 15 consecutive years of margin expansion. We expect 2023 to be year number 16.

Speaker 2

But from quarter to quarter, there are some seasonality to investments we make and some of the other variability that could lead to a different outcome from it won't be

Speaker 3

a straight line quarter to quarter.

Operator

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. The second question, if I can, in your prepared remarks, you talked about healthcare costs going up. And I was hoping you could talk us through from, I guess, our perspective, how that impacts, I'm thinking predominantly MRSA, because I wouldn't think it would have the same upside that P and C rate increases have?

Speaker 2

Well, where we earn commission, obviously, it could be helpful and we get paid in different ways and in different and B markets around the world. And again, it's not a straight line and much like we've talked about in the context of reinsurance, we're very transparent about the compensation we earn and how we get paid with our clients. But effectively a rising cost of risk is a tailwind whether it's in P&C or in benefits, to us. But we also provide other services and consulting services to our clients to help them navigate some of the challenges and the tight labor market is a factor here as well. So Martijn, maybe you

Speaker 13

can offer a little more color.

Speaker 9

You're absolutely right. There's also another element within health that distinguishes from P&C in a way is that very often our clients are looking to not increase net costs for their employees because they very often share in the cost. So, we see a lot of demand for services from our part on a consulting basis to change the design of these plans to come up with digital solutions instead so that we can control the costs. So the inflation is not always directly manifesting itself in the premiums or in the coverage. There's also, as you said, John, a good part of our book that is on fees rather than on commission.

Speaker 9

So overall, there are many different components pushing the pressure because you're absolutely right, the healthcare costs are increasing all over the world, but the reaction from employers is to try to mitigate these costs to innovative solution.

Speaker 2

One other point on our health and benefits business that just to share with everyone is that, it's kind of an important proof point around some of the possibilities around collaboration inside of the company. This is a business that Mercer and Marsh work on together all over the world. And it's been a really important growth driver for us over the course of the last couple of years. And it's been a bit of a source of inspiration around what's possible as we come together more and bring our collective capabilities to the client. So thank you, Meyer.

Speaker 2

Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our

Speaker 1

next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

Speaker 13

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2, both margin related. So the first one, maybe Piggybacking on Maher's last question first question. So clearly, you've had 3 consecutive quarters of 200 basis points or more of adjusted margin improvement in RES, that's very notable.

Speaker 13

At the same time, if I'm doing the math correctly, fiduciary income added what, 230 basis points of margins this quarter, cost saves, I think by Mark's comments, add another 100 basis points. So there seems to have been some offsets in RES. Can you talk about those?

Speaker 2

I don't certainly don't think of it in terms of offsets. Again, I'm pleased with the margin expansion in the quarter. As I said, we're very disciplined about how we manage our cost base, and we're not trying to optimize margins in any given quarter, right? We're trying to strike that balance between delivering terrific results today and sustainable growth and investment in capabilities that our clients are looking for in the future. So I'm very pleased with our start to the year from a margin perspective.

Speaker 13

And I apologize if I'm Belaboring the point, but I'm still a little confused because I thought the $160,000,000 to $180,000,000 of cost saves that were going to be ratable over the year were net of reinvestments and sounds like there was some reinvestment in growth this quarter.

Speaker 2

We're always investing course and future capabilities that will lead to sustainable growth in the future. There were some direct hiring that we did and investment that we did connected with some growth opportunities in our efforts to be more deliberate around collaboration, but we continue to invest broadly across the business as well. There's also T and E pressure. There's other inflationary impacts on the expense base of the company. But again, I'm pleased with 150 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter.

Speaker 13

Got it. Okay. And my second question is on the consulting side. So I think if it weren't for the JLT legacy legal charges, adjusted operating margin would have expanded quite nicely this quarter. I guess, where are we with these charges?

Speaker 13

And we're 4 years from Audi, the acquisition? Do you expect those to continue?

Speaker 2

Yes, we're pretty far along in that story. There could be occasionally some smaller charges that will happen going forward. They are included in the adjusted margin that we report just so you're aware of that. Most of what happened in the Q1 was the resolution of some legacy litigation that existed at JLT. I think there could be some real estate that we're still sorting our way through, but we're largely past these charges.

Speaker 2

Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our next question comes from the

Speaker 1

line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. Two quick questions. I think Martin on Marsh mentioned a bit of a headwind still from the robust IPO and M and A markets in the Q1 of last year. Maybe could you help us size that headwind in the Q1 and then next quarter maybe some color on sort of the tailwind of not having it there. I mean, I had heard from some competitors that it had a 5% dampening effect on organic revenue growth last year.

Speaker 14

So just curious if you could help us size that at Marsh.

Speaker 2

Yes, we're not going to size that, Andrew. We talked about it a bit in the Q4. It was a bit more of a headwind in the Q4 than it was in the Q1, but it remained a headwind for us. Again, we're pleased with the growth overall. Capital markets are just one input to the overall macro environment and then of course what we're doing to execute and to expand our growth.

Speaker 2

But I mean, you can look at the big data and get a sense of when obviously M and A activity started to tail off in IPO activity. And while it won't be as much

Speaker 6

of a headwind, I don't think

Speaker 2

any of us are projecting a major rebound in the market over the course of the next quarter or 2 as well.

Speaker 14

Got it. Okay. So no more headwinds at least. And then you had another good year of net hiring. I think it was around 3,000 last year following 6000 in 2021.

Speaker 14

Curious what your outlook is for 2023?

Speaker 6

Are you expecting

Speaker 14

to see material net hiring, maybe any color on what you'd like to do and the geographies of the company where you'd do it?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. A lot of the hiring we did last year, some of it was connected to the mid and back office, some of the work, the investments that we're making to drive some efficiency. Some of it we brought some contractors on as full time employees. It was the right economic trade and the right trade from a service perspective as well.

Speaker 2

But we're always active in the market and trying to bring talent that will make us better and stronger. And I mentioned earlier, we feel very, very good about our brand in the market. As an employer, we work very, very hard at it and voluntary turnover is in all of our businesses at or below historical levels. And so we feel terrific. Our Colleagues are highly engaged and it's a complex operating environment and they're delivering exceptional value to our clients.

Speaker 2

We'll hire less this year than we did last year or the year before. But again, it's not only the number, the raw number, It's who's on the team and making sure that we're aligning our talent with our clients' needs. Operator, next question.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our next question comes from

Speaker 1

the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

Speaker 15

Yes, thanks. A couple of questions here. First, I want to dig into Oliver Wyman just a little bit more here. Mark, I think you said that sales activity looks like it picked up a little bit in the second quarter, so we'll see a little better. I'm assuming that's because you've got such a good financial services practice, Oliver Wyman, you're seeing some spillover from what's going on with the banking crisis.

Speaker 15

That's one. And also, if I think about ex stat, are you seeing any slowdown in kind of corporate spending? You're thinking or corporations thinking about kind of a slowdown here? And is that maybe why you're a little more cautious about what potentially could happen here going forward?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brian. Look, we have a little less visibility into the pipeline at Oliver Wyman, that's historically been the case with that business. But as Mark pointed, recent sales activity has been better. We appreciate the advertisement on our FI practice. We have a great team of people there.

Speaker 2

But Nick, maybe you could add a little more color.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you, Brian. It's a very good question. I think what we've really seen is uncertainty more than economic decline. A lot of what we do is a matter of choice, but John made a comment with respect to Mercer earlier that Some of those choices become harder not to take right now with lots of questions changing, lots of important problems to solve.

Speaker 8

I think a number of our plants, particularly in the U. S. Have been pausing because of the uncertainty. We don't necessarily see that as a big downward step, but they're not quite sure if they're investing for growth or are they investing for cost. And to some extent, the financial services, the banking turmoil extends that period of uncertainty.

Speaker 8

But We're extremely proud of our market leading financial services practice in Oliver Wyman. We are, of course, very engaged in that global banking situation, whether that's supporting banks on the management of their funding, deposits and interest rate risks, working with involved actors in the sale and purchase of assets, preparing some of the restructuring that will no doubt be coming. And when we think of the mediums longer term that will continue to fuel the growth of that excellent practice.

Speaker 9

Great.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Nick. Brian, do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 15

Yes, absolutely. Just wanted to quickly chat a little bit about commercial property insurance pricing was going on in that market. You mentioned good strong price increases in the Q1. Are we seeing kind of an acceleration in that in the second quarter as some of these carriers kind of adjust to higher reinsurance costs and could that potentially be a little bit of a tailwind for you all as we look into the remainder of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Brian. I don't think our clients at Marsh think it's a good strong increase in pricing. But yes, we did observe a higher rate change in property as we expected in the Q1 given what happened late in the year and what we saw in the reinsurance market at January 1. So what I would say is broadly speaking, it's a challenging market for our insurance clients at Marsh.

Speaker 2

Inflation broadly is driving a higher cost of risk, the frequency of weather related losses, as you point out, and we did see the U. S. Retail market, the property market begin to react to some of the reinsurance market changes as well. But Martin, maybe you could talk about pricing in the market broadly and in property? Yes, of course.

Speaker 6

So John, as you said, it's Not a good day for our clients. Our focus is on obviously getting the best deals for our clients and making sure that they stay with us and they understand we're driving innovation where we can. The 22nd quarter of consecutive rate increases, you highlighted property and that did because I picked up momentum again into Q1. It accelerated from 7% rate increases we reported in Q4, 22% to 10% this year. And in addition to that from a premium perspective, there's clear inflation and exposure growth as well.

Speaker 6

So real pain for clients. It doesn't necessarily flow through to our business, A good chunk of that high risk business with high cat business is fee based and so it provides the stability there. Other lines of business is being driven by social inflation, casualty would have been higher, but for workers' compensation, which pretty flat. And it's pretty well around the world. The one area where there has been deceleration in price increases has been in the financial product areas, not just the SPAC and de SPAC, but also some declines in D and O pricing driven by the fact there are 20 new carriers that have come into the marketplace over the last year.

Speaker 6

That actually the professional empty lines are robust and that's really a function of prior year accident deterioration in the professional lines is social inflation drives that. So it's a bit of a mixed picture, but that the highlight in terms of growth is being property and the rest is seeming to stabilize a little bit.

Speaker 2

And Brian, maybe just one last point on the retail property market, a lot of the retail wind and quake risk is from February 1 or even March 1 through the June 1. And so really just beginning to see what's happening from a risk appetite and from a marketplace perspective. So we're in the middle of the story right now. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 8

I would

Speaker 1

now like to turn the call back over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan or any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support and thank you all very much. I look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Speaker 1

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Marsh & McLennan Companies Q1 2023
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