W. R. Berkley Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 20, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. The speakers' remarks may contain forward looking statements.

Operator

Some of the forward looking statements can be identified by the use of forward looking words, including without limitation, beliefs, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward looking statements It should not be regarded as representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2022, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R.

Operator

Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation To update or alter its forward looking statements, whether as a result of the new information, future events or otherwise. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Brianna, thank you very much, And good afternoon, all. Again, welcome to our Q2 call. Along with me on this end of the phone, we also have our Chairman, Bill Berkeley as well as Chief Financial Officer, Rich Baill. We're going to follow our typical agenda where momentarily I'm going it over to Rich, who will walk us through some highlights from the quarter. I will follow-up with a few observations after Rich makes his comments, And then we will be opening it up for Q and A.

Speaker 1

Before I hand it over to Rich, a few Comments from me. Based on everything I can see, it would look as though the stage is being set for What one might call yet another but for quarter for the industry, it would seem as though Cat losses don't make a difference. And bizarrely, from our perspective, People seem very quick to back out cat losses as though it's not real money, but ironically, they don't seem to back out the premium associated with the exposure that just had the losses. So again, from our perspective, it's no wonder why the industry Struggles oftentimes to make good risk adjusted returns. In order to do that, one needs to recognize the exposure you're taking on And not pretend that it doesn't exist, particularly when it occurs.

Speaker 1

Through our lens, we are in the Capital Management We are focused on risk adjusted returns and around here cat losses count. In our opinion, it is not monopoly money, it is real money. And when we measure how we are doing, we do not back out cat losses. Perhaps we are a bit of an exception to the industry, but ultimately we think it is an economic reality and that's not something we shy away from. So with that, Rich, if you would please.

Speaker 2

Of course. Thanks, Rob. Net income doubled from the prior year quarter, Resulting in $356,000,000 or $1.30 per share, annualized return on beginning of year equity was 21.1%, Driven by strong underwriting and record investment income results, operating return on equity was excellent at 18.4% And the heightened industry wide catastrophe activity in the quarter enabled us to once again demonstrate our underwriting discipline in challenging environments. Simultaneously, our decision to maintain a short duration high credit quality investment portfolio has enabled us to benefit from higher interest rates. Net investment income increased almost 43 percent to a record $245,000,000 The core investment portfolio grew 71.6 percent driven by a higher book yield at 4.2% in the quarter compared with the preceding consecutive quarter of 3.8% And Q2 of 2022 of 2.6 percent.

Speaker 2

2nd quarter operating cash flows of $709,000,000 Combined with the Q1 brings us to a first half year record of almost $1,200,000,000 and strengthens our ability to grow investable assets At higher interest rates, a duration of 2.3 years also positions us well to reinvest assets at a higher new money rate On fixed maturity securities, compared to the roll off of existing investments, while maintaining our high credit quality of a AA minus. The investment funds reflected a loss of $1,000,000 driven by a decline in market values in certain funds In the Consumer Goods, Real Estate and Financial Services sectors, please keep in mind that we report our investment funds on a 1 quarter lag. Pretax net investment gains in the quarter of $59,000,000 is comprised of net realized gains on investments of $47,000,000 And an improvement in unrealized gains on equity securities of $21,000,000 partially offset by an increase in current expected credit losses of $10,000,000 Turning to underwriting results. Underwriting income was $265,000,000 representing a calendar year combined ratio of 89.6 percent. Current accident year catastrophe losses were $54,000,000 or 2.1 loss ratio points Compared with the prior year of $58,000,000 or 2.5 loss ratio points, prior year development was Favorable by $3,000,000 or 0.1 loss ratio points, bringing our current accident year combined ratio ex cats 87.6 percent.

Speaker 2

Current accident year loss ratio ex cats was 59.5%. The expense ratio ticked up 0.4 points to 28.1 percent in the quarter, consistent with the expectations we previously communicated. The two main contributors include the change in reinsurance structures as well as increased compensation costs and start up operating On operating unit expenses, we're working hard to identify and implement innovative strategies to drive operating efficiencies and leverage Closing out the underwriting discussion with premium production, We increased gross premiums written by 9.3 percent to a record $3,300,000,000 and net premiums written increased 8.7% To a record $2,800,000,000 All lines of business grew in the insurance segment with the exception of professional liability and workers' compensation, While Property Reinsurance grew in the Reinsurance and Monoline Excess segment, stockholders' equity remained strong at almost $6,900,000,000 After returning more than $320,000,000 of capital to shareholders in the quarter, we repurchased almost 5,100,000 shares For $292,500,000 at an average price per share in the quarter of $57.79 In addition, we paid regular dividends of $28,300,000 The combination of these capital related actions for the Q1, Including the special dividend translates to $614,500,000 returned to investors on a year to date basis Rob, I'll turn it back to you.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Rich, thank you very much. Very helpful. So look, I think the market continues To not operate in any type of lockstep where major lines as we've discussed in the past Continue to somewhat march to the beat of their own drum. In addition to that, we continue to see the marketplace Struggling with trying to strike the balance between rate need and keeping up with loss cost trend. On the other hand, a desire to grow.

Speaker 1

This is an industry where you can, practically speaking, grow as quickly as you want to. It really becomes a much more challenging exercise though when you are looking to achieve a certain loss ratio, Which will deliver a return that is acceptable in the end. For us, rate adequacy to support a reasonable loss ratio And deliver an acceptable return has, is and will remain a priority for us. I believe that this has been demonstrated over Time through our results and obviously our continued focus on making sure that we are keeping up with trend comfortably. A couple of soundbites on the marketplace and major product lines, and I would hope it will dovetail in with some of Rich's Comments and where we have been growing and parts of the marketplace that we find less attractive and we're playing a bit more defense.

Speaker 1

For starters, speaking of defense, I think public D and O within the professional line space is clearly a place that one needs to pause And tread carefully. We are seeing the pricing erode at a very rapid pace. Clearly, there has been good margin in the business, But that seems to be whittling away quite quickly. As far as liability lines and maybe under the umbrella of social Inflation, we continue, particularly in the auto space, especially commercial auto to see great challenge. That's also spilling over into GL and ultimately Umbrella.

Speaker 1

And what I mean by that is The plaintiff bar is very aggressive and they are taking a variety of new tactics. We think that we are able to keep up with it appropriately Close attention. In addition to that, there is growing evidence that the tail associated with some of these product lines Maybe extending a little bit, particularly on the claims excuse me, on the occurrence front and to a certain extent on Certain aspects of the claims made front. Property, I think it has finally come into focus What needed to happen as it relates to cat exposed properties? And that seems to be spilling over into the non cat The other piece that's Worth mentioning at least through in my opinion is Tier 2 CAT, which I would define as severe convective storm, Wildfire, winter storm, etcetera.

Speaker 1

These are things that were a bit of an afterthought and I think after the past several years they are becoming Much more front of mind. Last comment as it relates to market conditions would be workers' compensation, certainly a topic we have Justin, these calls in the past. There was a period of time During COVID, clearly there was a break that was caught on the frequency front for the industry. Frequency has returned to a more traditional norm. But one of the things that we've been waiting for and we're starting to finally see rear its head Is medical inflation.

Speaker 1

It is our expectation that you are going to see more medical inflation coming through To all payers, including the workers' comp space. And as a reminder, slightly over 50% of every claims dollar Later on. Last comment on the marketplace. There continues to be this bifurcation between Where the standard market, particularly national carriers have an appetite, they seem to be very aggressive. But where they don't have an appetite, that is Creating great opportunity for the specialty, in particular, the E and S space.

Speaker 1

The submission flow that we continue to see remains robust And we are very encouraged with what the balance of the year likely holds and beyond. And certainly, the That we continue to get, the ex comp rate increase during the quarter was 8.2%, which was reasonably consistent with what we saw Earlier this year, I think the loss ratio demonstrates yet again our strategy around How we manage exposure, how we have balance in the portfolio and how we think about risk and return and certainly volatility is folded into that And in our opinion is a key component in building book value. As far as the expenses go, Rich touched On that as well, we remain very focused on making sure we're thoughtful about the dollars that we spend and there's nothing that leads us to believe that that number won't Remain comfortably below 30. And pivoting over to the investment portfolio, we remain or we continue, I should say, excuse me, To be rewarded for the position that we took as it relates to duration. Obviously, as we've discussed in the past, We benefited in having less of an adverse impact on our book value as rates moved up.

Speaker 1

And in addition to that, we were able to put money to work at higher rates More quickly than many of our peers. The new money rate In the quarter, it was probably around 5.25 plus. And as you would gather relative to the book yield at 4.2 that would suggest we still have significant upside and that will come into focus over some period of time. Rich mentioned the duration at 2.3. I think it was at 2.4 last quarter.

Speaker 1

Just to clarify that, that was really As much as anything dis rounding, that having been said, we are paying close attention as you would expect for the window of opportunity and when it presents itself Likely, you'll see that duration start to push out again. So all things being equal, I think a very solid quarter for us On virtually every front, I think when you take into account the cat activity that the industry faced, we fared particularly well. And in Our ability to generate a 21% return, I think is really a great positive and a Tribute to our colleagues and to our strategy and how effectively they are executing. When the day is all done, the goal of the When building book value, it is not just about the steps you take forward, it is also about the steps that you avoid taking backwards. So with that, Brianna, we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Your first question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hi Elyse, good afternoon.

Speaker 3

Hi, thanks. Good afternoon as well. My first question, Rob, is on the underlying combined ratio, the 87.6 In the quarter, I was just curious if there is anything one off in that number. I know the last couple of quarters we've seen some elevated Non cat fire losses that you guys have called out, were there any similar losses in the quarter or anything within that 87.6% as We think about the level of margin we could see in the balance of the

Speaker 1

year. That pig is still making its way through the pipeline. I don't have a specific number for how much it General mix as well in the portfolio as you can see it shifts a little bit every day as far as Excuse me, the underwriting portfolio. But yes, there was a little bit of non cat property in there, but it is diminishing.

Speaker 3

And then in terms of the mix, right, so your rate ex comp in the quarter was 8.2%, right, we can call that Stabil with the 83 last quarter. And I would have thought, right, given we've heard of a lot of strains within property In the quarter that you might have seen, the rate move up a little bit. Is that just a function of mix?

Speaker 1

Yes, I think it's a function of mix and certainly we are benefiting as much as anyone on the property front. At the same time, There are clearly challenges for workers' compensation and you can see that in quite frankly how much we are growing or not there. And on professional liability side, Rich flagged as well, D and O is very competitive. So the number that we give you is an Aggregate, obviously, but I can promise you that we are getting good traction on the property front. And the more cat exposed it is, the more traction we are getting, That's significant.

Speaker 3

And then one last one, the PYD you guys said was favorable $3,000,000 I know you guys typically wait For the queue to give insurance versus reinsurance, but could you give us a sense of the magnitude in one segment versus the other?

Speaker 1

Honestly, relative to the reserve position in both, it was de minimis. I think one don't have the number exactly in front of me, but one was a little bit positive and one was a little, I think modestly negative, if that.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi. First one I had is on the reserve sort of a follow-up on the PYD question. In your commentary, you mentioned occurrence and the tail potential get extended, mentioned Plaintiff's bar and medical inflation and so forth. I mean, I would think all of these things would potentially put pressure on some of those reserves. Can you talk about why you didn't feel like you Make adjustments, sort of confidence in those reserves despite some of those headwinds that you see?

Speaker 1

The answer is because a lot of what I was referencing and Eudice referenced are things that we have been And when people have been asking us, why aren't you dropping your current accident year? Why aren't you dropping Your loss ratios, because there's a lot of uncertainty out there. So we feel very comfortable about where we sit at this stage. We revisit and look at our loss ratios by product line at a very granular level with some regularity that being every 90 days. And we think that we are in a good place to be able to absorb what we are seeing.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you. And then follow-up maybe just a high level question on excess and surplus First standard lines, I know in the past you've talked about standard lines and a lot of things going over. I mean, we're Certainly hearing about it in personal lines. And can you help us think through that and then just how that's been going in the last quarter and where you're seeing opportunities?

Speaker 4

Our

Speaker 1

E and S businesses, their submission flow is very robust. And again, we are there's nothing that leads us to believe that the market by and large and The lines that I talked about is softening in any capacity. There's a lot of momentum out there, Not just in the property, but in the liability, including pockets of professional. That's why I called out D and O in particular because That is a particularly challenged line. That's why I called out workers' comp.

Speaker 1

It has been very competitive For an extended period of time, but much of the rest of what we do, we are seeing very strong submission flow.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, great. Good afternoon. A follow-up on Yes. Question from Elyse in your comments about maybe about some non cat property losses. And you Rob used the comment, the metaphor about the uptick through the Python.

Speaker 6

So are you saying that Some of the current year property losses bled into the underlying this From last quarter to this quarter? Because I thought that we used to use that term when we're talking about kind of reserve tail.

Speaker 1

No. What I'm talking about is that during the quarter, there was some non cat property losses that contributed to the Loss ratio, that is what I'm referring to. That is less elevated than what we've seen over the past couple of quarters, but more elevated than what we've seen

Speaker 6

Okay, okay. Good. And so that makes sense. And just curious, lots of your competitors call out, it helps us tell us Non cat property was 2 points higher, 2 points less than expected, but Berkeley has a smaller Property booked at some of those competitors. So just curious is our non cap property losses, is that many Is that 10 points of your loss ratio or are we talking kind of it's normal as it would be a low?

Speaker 1

No, it's Property is not a huge part of our book and no, it would not be anything approaching with you the number that you were referring to.

Speaker 6

Okay. And a follow-up on, you made some interesting comments on some growing evidence that the tail is elongating on Occurrence, but maybe also claims made. Just curious if you can elaborate because when we look at I thought last time we looked at your The statutory pay to incurred loss ratios, we couldn't see that. And I also You didn't give us an update, I don't know if you want to, on just how pay to incurred loss ratios are trending for you all?

Speaker 1

So as far as what we're seeing coming through, it was really more of a comment as far as the tail Elongating based on discussions that we're having with our colleagues on the claims front and what they are seeing. So are we going to start to see it in the data? Yes. But one of the things that we try and do is not just wait to see it in the traditional actuarial data, But we're visiting with colleagues trying to understand what are they seeing very much on the front lines because that's a leading indicator as to what to expect. I think the plaintiff bar is as aggressive as ever.

Speaker 1

And oftentimes, what they are trying to do Is wait till the 11th hour and then put forth a demand and try and create a situation that is optimal for them. But when I think we understand what they're trying to do and we're managing through it. So do I think that This is going to be a radical sea change? No. But are we conscious of it?

Speaker 1

Yes, we are. And I do not have the loss ratio in front of me, but we will follow-up with that for you,

Speaker 7

Mike. Okay.

Speaker 6

And I guess lastly, we've obviously we and others value your insights. So when you're you've been talking a while about medical inflation It's brewing. In the CPI data at least, it looks like it's inching higher, but still looks A bit tame versus historic levels. Is this thesis kind of based on similar to what you just said about just Talking with your folks on the front lines and understanding the macro and kind of you feel that there's going to be more inflation coming? Are you actually Seeing it.

Speaker 6

For example, and I'll be quiet, Travelers commented today that the Workers' comp inflation is still negative overall for them?

Speaker 1

I think the frequency trend is very attractive. I think as far as the medical Trend goes, I don't believe that it's a negative and I believe it's going to be ticking up and that's just based on industry Data that is available. I think if people choose to dig in, they will find out. Thank you. Yes.

Operator

Your next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Hi, guys. Good afternoon.

Speaker 8

How are you doing there?

Speaker 1

Okay, thanks. Good. Good. So my first question, I'm just going

Speaker 8

to ask a little bit. Earlier today, one of your competitors or maybe not completely a competitor, they reported a significant acceleration in the renewal price change for business written in, they said it was pretty broad in their portfolio. And then that's at 8.2 percent renewal price change is insignificant, but it's fairly stable with what it was Last quarter. Has anything the mix changed over time, but would you say the market today is materially different than the market 3 months ago? Has anything you identified happening dynamically right now in the pricing of business?

Speaker 1

I think more people are starting to realize that they need to do something about rate. So I'm not going to comment specifically on other market And that's why they decided to put their foot harder down on the pedal. We had a view as to what we need and what rate adequacy is So again, I think that we feel as though that we're in a pretty good place.

Speaker 8

Okay. And if my model is right, I think the quarter enjoyed the most share repurchase you've done on dollar value basis Anytime in 15 years, suggests to me that you probably find the stock attractive at the current value. At the same time this quarter, you did a 15%, Which I think is a pretty good result given the headwinds.

Speaker 1

Did you say core results in the investment portfolio?

Speaker 8

I mean The investment funds portfolio.

Speaker 1

Okay. Yes. Okay. Yes. Understood.

Speaker 8

Yes. Yes. And then I mean that's volatile. We know it is. But I think it's a pretty good result.

Speaker 8

So I'm saying you had a lot of headwinds and you still had a good result.

Speaker 1

Yes.

Speaker 8

The repurchases are a choice, But there are also a cost. You could have put that $300,000,000 into more underwriting, but you bought back the stock instead. Can you walk us through, I guess the capital utilization model and how you think about the trade off between the value of Berkeley stock and the value of putting money to work In the 2023 insurance marketplace?

Speaker 1

Yes. Sure, Josh. And if I keep it too high level, we're very happy to catch up offline. But ultimately, we look at the business Today, we look at where things are going tomorrow. We want to make sure that we are well positioned from a capital perspective The day is all done to the extent that we have a surplus of capital beyond what we have today plus Beyond what we need today plus and see we need tomorrow plus a cushion, then we're going to think about what's the most efficient way An effective way and thoughtful way to return that to the people that it belongs to, that being the shareholders.

Speaker 1

Obviously, there are different tools that we can use to return that capital. Part of the analysis when we think about the returning of the capital is Not just what do we think the value of the business is today and what is our view on what real book value is, we think about what the earnings power of the business is for the foreseeable future. And then we make a, what I believe is a thoughtful decision With all of that and a few other things taking into account, the best way to return the value to the shareholders. So that's sort of a long story short. Do I believe that we are Able to continue to grow the business at a pretty healthy pace?

Speaker 1

Yes, I do. Do I believe that we're going to be able to continue to generate Very healthy returns? Yes, I do. Do I think we'll be able to do that with an eye towards risk adjusted return and do it in a consistent Wei, that is certainly the expectation. So if you want to get a bit more into The details we can try and do that offline, but we are not going to just try and hold on to capital that we don't need.

Speaker 1

In addition to that, we're conscious of what the capital needs will be in the future and we're aware of the fact that certain rating agencies are reexamining Potentially, what their view is going to be and we have a view as to what that may mean for us.

Speaker 8

Well, thank you for the full answer. I might try and get back in line, but I'll let somebody else off the phone.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hi, Mark. Good afternoon. Yes.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Rob. I appreciate the call. On the reinsurance segment, your Loss ratio was pretty low, hasn't been that low in a while. Is that just good experience in the quarter or is this maybe the impact of Cumulative rate increases over the last few years?

Speaker 1

I think it's a combination of both Good underwriting and a job well done by many of our colleagues. And again, we also had a bit of positive development coming through there.

Speaker 5

And then in the GL line, you had a nice acceleration sequentially back up into double digit growth. You'd mentioned the challenges around the plaintiff's bar and inflation, but you seem to be enthusiastic. Any Additional commentary about what you're seeing in GL?

Speaker 1

Look, we've places that we're growing, it's because we like the opportunity. I would tell you a meaningful amount of the growth in that product line is coming from our colleagues that are managing E and S businesses.

Speaker 5

And then finally, the casualty RE was down presumably a judgment on your view on again on the plaintiff's bar, but Is that something you'd probably likely to shy away from here in the foreseeable

Speaker 1

future? It's not so much The plaintiff's bar though, obviously, that's a contributor to how we think about loss cost and trend and rate accuracy. But it would seem as though the reinsurance marketplace Struggles to have discipline across the board. So just as they're getting more discipline in the property space, it would seem as though the Professional and liability space may not have the same discipline it had yesterday.

Speaker 5

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, good evening, Rob. First question, just on reinsurance. The attritional loss ratio improved quite a bit there. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about either the sustainability of that or the drivers this quarter?

Speaker 1

Look, we're pleased with how the business is performing, Ryan. We're not going to get into a whole lot of minutiae around that. But We think that the various businesses that make up that segment have positioned themselves well and they're reaping the benefits from it. And we think that it's likely that for the foreseeable future that we'll continue to see good performance. That having been said, as I mentioned A few moments ago, there was some positive development that came out of one of their operations in that segment, which was helpful.

Speaker 9

Got it. And then, I guess, in the insurance segment, just thinking about growth, yes, it seems like some of the primary carriers Are growing quite a bit more than what the level of rate increases are and Sounds like you, your top line growth looks more similar to the type of rate

Speaker 8

that you're reporting. So I was wondering

Speaker 9

if maybe you could talk a little bit about, I guess why we're not seeing something a little bit from a growth standpoint on top of the rate? Is it that is retention Lower than it was a year ago, are you writing less new business? Just I guess give us a look into that.

Speaker 1

When you look at the group, we're a bit of a bouquet and there are certain parts of This group that are growing very rapidly, so for example, many of our E and S businesses are growing at a very healthy pace To say the least, and there are other parts of the organization that are growing as well. But we're believers in underwriting And as you can see in the release, there are parts of the business that are growing quite quickly, Perhaps in keeping with your comment relative to some others, and there are parts where we're just going to be more disciplined. So you would have taken note that workers' compensation, we are concerned about how competitive that marketplace is. And even with the growth in payrolls that we've seen, we are, I would suggest, in somewhat of a defensive mode. Similar story when it comes to professional liability and we're kind of scratching our head around public D and O.

Speaker 1

If you want to talk about the reinsurance, obviously, the casualty reinsurance is down a little bit And the monoline access is up incrementally. So I think that and I can appreciate why People might look for a broader brush, but we're looking at our business and we're looking at each part of the market that we participate in with a very fine brush. And we are trying to make sure we make good decisions in every pocket. And when you add up all the pieces, this is where it came out. Do I think that there is opportunity for there to be pockets of further momentum?

Speaker 1

Yes, absolutely. But I think that when push comes to shove, that's just the reality of when you put all the pieces together, this is where it came out. Got it.

Speaker 9

And then just following up, we've heard, I guess, partially in response to the softer professional lines pricing market, there's been a more diverse set of players Did you find the cyber line attractive? Would you count yourself among that or Has cyber been a big growth area at Berkeley?

Speaker 1

It's not a big growth area for us these days. There were moments in time where we Found it to be very attractive. And then to your point, we saw a lot of people coming into the space. And again, We have the underwriting discipline that we're not going to do foolish things. So have we ever been a giant player in the space?

Speaker 1

No. We're Careful and selective and we're conscious of how to manage the systemic exposure that comes along with that product line. But clearly, cyber has become a more competitive market and we have a view as to what an adequate rate is and

Speaker 10

Thank

Operator

you. Your next question comes from David Motamedian with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, good afternoon. So I had just a question on these fire losses. Just had a question just in terms of how far along we are in fixing that and specifically How many more quarters would you expect this to really have an impact on results?

Speaker 1

I think you're going to see it having a diminishing impact on results between now and the end of the year, And it will be diminishing gradually.

Speaker 11

Got it. And then I guess I'm assuming that the shift in mix Just sort of excluding the fire losses, the shift in mix would mean that something in the neighborhood The loss ratio ex cat, ex reserve development is somewhat of a sustainable level just given The mix shift is obviously enduring. Is that the right way to think about it?

Speaker 1

I apologize, but I'm not sure I fully understand the question. Could we do that once more, please?

Speaker 11

Yes. So looking at the 59.5 percent accident year loss ratio ex cat, You cited mix as a sign as to why, one of the reasons why that was at that level and it deteriorated a bit Year over year, obviously, in addition to the fire losses, Is that something just given the mix is obviously a more sustainable change, is that something we should expect around that level for the remainder of the year?

Speaker 1

I can't answer the question with certainty, but we think that ultimately The way the portfolio is running and our ability to deliver a 90% combined or better and 18% or 21% return depending on how you look at it, feels like we're in a pretty comfortable spot. Do I think that there's the opportunity for the 59 to potentially improve a little bit? Yes, I do. But we're not going to And volatile as this, we just don't think that's in the best interest of anyone. So we're in our book at least Achieving very healthy outcomes for stakeholders, while still ensuring that we are not putting undue pressure on the situation.

Speaker 1

And that's a good place to be in our opinion.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thanks. And Maybe just a follow-up. Obviously, not a big impact on the entire book with the $3,000,000 of favorable reserve development, but Yes. You guys have been on top of the 2019 and prior casualty lines.

Speaker 11

Can you just talk about Any changes you may have made to those lines for those years in the second quarter and How you feel about your preserving position there going forward?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, you'll see more detail when the queue comes out and to the extent it leaves you scratch We're happy to catch up offline. But I would tell you, we feel very good about where our reserves are and we think they're Well positioned to endure some of the things that we think are either are ahead of the industry. And again, I think there's been a lot of chatter amongst some observers as to given all the rate we've gotten, why haven't We dropped our loss ratios more and it's because of all the uncertainty. So when the day is all done, do I think that we're in a good place?

Speaker 1

Yes. When push comes to shove, if you look at the average duration of our loss reserves, they're give or take 3.5 years. So if you think about that and you think about what that probably means as far as How far along that 2016 through 2019 year is, those years are as far as development, I think that things are That would suggest things are quieting down. And of course, as far as the more recent years, We are feeling as though that they're in an exceptional place.

Speaker 11

Got it. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in just on that last point, the more recent years. I know you had mentioned On the last call that you guys have been measured in terms of how quickly you recognize the progress from 2020 onwards, And that could have implications for how you think about loss picks as you make your way through 2023 and into next year. Have you updated this view at all, this most recent quarter? Just thinking about some of the comments you made about lengthening Tails on occurrence and claims made?

Speaker 1

Well, obviously, the tail comment has applicability in different ways to different product lines. I think some of the comments, if I recall correctly, and maybe I'm mistaken, that you may be referring to Would stem from policies that are written on a claims made form. And when you write on a claims made form and there is no notice, Then that chapter is closed. So putting that aside to the extent that you do have a notice or you have an occurrence form, then you need to Spend some time thinking about how do I think about that tail extending or not. So we, as you would expect, Bifurcate the book as we examine it in a variety of different ways and look at it at a very granular level.

Speaker 1

But I think perhaps what I was just referring to may touch on what you had been raising.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the question.

Operator

Your next question comes from Yaron Pinar with Jefferies. Your line is

Speaker 12

open. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. If we could Look at the insurance underlying loss ratio, I think you'd said that the impact of the non cat fire losses has Diminished a bit year over year or quarter over quarter, sorry. And yet, I think that the overall year over year result was Greater deterioration than what we had seen the prior two quarters.

Speaker 12

So I guess what else is driving that today? Is it that you have Fewer favorable offsets relative to previous quarters, is it mix? Why are we seeing that?

Speaker 1

Well, putting aside the property piece To your point, I would say the leading contributor to the question you're raising is mix of business. Different product lines, Terry, different loss ratio ticks.

Speaker 12

Okay. But I guess on that front, it seems like you are growing the short tail lines Faster than most of the other businesses. I would have thought those may have a lower loss ratio, underlying loss ratio or am I not thinking about that correctly?

Speaker 1

Some of them do and some of them are Hold on, I'm just pulling out a couple of papers. Why don't we As opposed to me fumbling through our papers, why don't we catch up offline?

Speaker 12

Okay, fair enough. And then I'll admit, I'm intrigued by your Comment and I think it's not the first time that you've made it about the kind of the but for approach that the industry has with regards to cat losses. I am curious if we look at the underlying combined ratio that the company reported, the 87.6, What would that be without the cat exposed net premiums earned?

Speaker 1

If we backed out, I'm not sure I What would the 87 be without what?

Speaker 12

So I think in your opening comments, you said the industry It is a but for approach and removes catastrophes, but doesn't take out the Catastrophe related premiums.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 12

So what would that be what would the $87,600,000 be for Berkeley This quarter, if we made that adjustment?

Speaker 1

Well, we don't really spend a lot of time doing that because we don't fool ourselves that cat losses don't count.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, even Tia. So Rob, I'm just curious, property reinsurance, huge growth in the quarter. Is that you all leaning into the CAT Reinsurance Market or is there something else going on there?

Speaker 1

That is us seeing opportunity in the property Reinsurance Marketplace, certainly, cat is a meaningful component of that. And while it's not Having an overwhelming impact on the group overall, it's certainly a window of opportunity that we're going from a toe in the water to Maybe a foot plus in the water.

Speaker 5

So the short

Speaker 1

answer is yes.

Speaker 10

Good. That's helpful, Sak. Second question, I'm just curious, Rob, you talked a little bit about pricing, you talked about D and O being challenging and some pressures you're seeing in commercial auto. I wonder if you can kind of bifurcate a little bit And what you're seeing kind of large commercial and then as you work your way down middle and small, is it more competitive kind of in the excess liability for larger companies and as you get down less, Any differentiation?

Speaker 1

As far as the liability lines, the larger the account, by and large, the more Compared to many of our peers. But yes, clearly there is growing competition or is More visible with larger accounts.

Speaker 10

Got you. And if I could throw one more in here. I'm wondering if maybe you can characterize your Primary commercial property book. When you write commercial properties that cat exposed stuff, is that regular homeowners? What exactly are we looking at when you're seeing that growth in your commercial property book?

Speaker 1

So in the commercial property book, It's a combination of a variety of different things. Certainly, there's a piece of that in there that's associated With Berkeley 1, because probably we'll be splitting that out as that grows. In addition to that, we certainly write A bit of property that is cat exposed on the commercial line side, But much of it is not Tier 1, if you will, cat exposed property.

Speaker 10

Got you. Makes sense. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hi, Meyer. Good afternoon.

Speaker 10

Hi. How are you?

Speaker 1

Good. How

Speaker 10

are you? Good. Thanks. Sorry.

Speaker 13

A couple of really quick questions, I think. You talked about medical inflation, but if I understood your That's correct. That seems to be mostly emerging in workers' compensation. And I was wondering whether you're seeing the same sort of Pickup in medical costs in, I don't know, commercial auto or medical malpractice?

Speaker 1

So It is and as far as medical malpractice, I would separate that as to that's a different issue. But as far as The medical costs go as far as what is a Band Aid cost today versus what is it cost yesterday for an injured worker, Our expectation is that that is clearly on the rise. Are you going to see it in other product lines? Yes, but to a much lesser Because when you think about a claims dollar, medical plays a far more significant role with workers' comp than any other product line that we're in.

Speaker 13

Okay, perfect. That's helpful. And then early on, I guess, in Rich's comments, you talked about, Well, I

Speaker 1

guess, I

Speaker 13

don't know if it's his or your commentary actually, but the expenses should stay comfortable. Kind of above the same, I got it. 30. I'm just getting old. Was anything in the quarter's expense ratio The benefit of it?

Speaker 13

Basically, the premise of the question is that comfortably below 30 doesn't even seem to be that high of a hurdle to achieve.

Speaker 1

I think we're just trying to give people guidance for the long run. And ultimately, our expense ratio Can at any moment in time be adversely impacted by investments that we are making, whether that be in Technology or whether that be in a new business that we are starting that's early on or in its infancy. So I think we're just trying to give people guidance as to what they should be expecting going forward longer term.

Speaker 13

Okay, fair enough. And then one final question if I can. I know it's really early in Q3, but there's been a school of thought out there that maybe once we went through a full year of

Speaker 1

Are you referring to a public D and L?

Speaker 10

Absolutely, yes.

Speaker 1

Yes. So there's no So there's nothing that we're seeing as of now that would suggest that it's bottoming out or let alone pivoting.

Speaker 13

Okay. I'm sorry to hear that, but thank you very much.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Heleniak with RBC TC Capital Markets, your line is open.

Speaker 14

Yes, good evening. Yes. The first question I had was just on the investment funds. You had A loss there in the quarter. And I'm just curious if you have changed any allocations there or just any kind of update on What's going on there and the strategy for that for the second half of the year and into 2024, if there's any change in that thinking?

Speaker 1

Yes. Look, the just to qualify that a little bit, certainly we weren't happy with the performance, but the loss was about $1,000,000 or so. And what is driving that? It was primarily a Participation in some alternative investments or private equity specifically, where there were some marks They took down on some investments and then that trickled through to us. How do we see that unfolding from here?

Speaker 1

We'll let you know. But at this stage, I think that we're comfortable that people are taking the action that they need to take to make sure that those funds are appropriately marked, But we're dependent on getting that information from the managers.

Speaker 14

Okay. Was it were those marks significant then for the quarter for the alts?

Speaker 1

Is there a number that you got on there? You can follow-up with Rich or Karen for the specifics, but it was enough To take what's been a reasonably healthy run rate and bring it down to essentially 0.

Speaker 14

Yes. Okay. Got you. And then just one more question. You mentioned there'll be a window of opportunity To deploy capital into higher yielding securities and your duration is at 2.3 years now and I'm just wondering if we might be getting close To that window of opportunity and how you see that playing out as well?

Speaker 1

It's certainly our hope and we're waiting for that to occur. And yes, we think it's coming, but it may take some time. And ultimately, as in everything we do, we're focused not just on risk adjusted return, but we're not going to in an effort to we're not going to compromise, If you will, in a foolish way. And again, we are eagerly looking For the opportunity to allow us to extend that duration out a little bit, but right now we are getting reasonably well rewarded for the position that we've taken.

Speaker 14

All right.

Speaker 10

That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you for letting me on again. I'll give one more question, but I don't know if I can get a great answer. Can we talk about share repurchases versus special dividends and how you think about the value of doing both those things?

Speaker 1

Josh, I think that was a pretty good prediction on your part as to the quality of the answer, at least that you'd get But why don't I hand it over to our Chairman, who also moonlight That is our Head of Repurchase.

Speaker 7

Hi, Josh.

Speaker 1

Hi, Bill.

Speaker 7

So I think that it's a constantly changing thing. It's based on the opportunity We will never do either. It precludes us From investing the money in the business opportunistically. So we will never do any of those things If they constrain our management of the business. At the moment in time where we think we're generating extra capital and we look ahead And see that we're going to have extra capital, we'll then make the judgment as to the share values So looking out ahead versus the kinds of returns we think we should get to give our shareholders money.

Speaker 7

There's not an absolute rule. I think that when the stock gets down to what we would say is an attractive price, We sort of repay that and it just got relatively speaking more attractive price Until you go back probably certainly more than 15 years. So we were more inclined to do it. And it's a judgment we make each time we decide that we think we're going to have excess capital for a period of time as And we try and make the judgment at that point in time, the stock price versus What we view is the intrinsic value of the enterprise and we look ahead. So it's not that there's an absolute Rule changes as we look at where we are, where our leverage is a lot more stable now.

Speaker 7

We have the longer term debt. We don't have any of those kinds of uncertainties that we had before. So there's not really a single rule That we go by, it's really looking ahead and saying, how do we think we'll best treat the shareholders by using the money effectively. And that obviously has to do with the price of the stock relative to the intrinsic value of the company.

Speaker 8

Well, thank you very much. I appreciate the disclosure.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the question, Josh.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Rob, I will turn the call back over to you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Brianna, thank you. And thank you all very much for joining the call. Again, I think this was a moment where the company once again demonstrated Its ability to manage risk and to focus on return and recognize that volatility is an important piece of that. We will look forward to speaking with you all in about 90 days.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
W. R. Berkley Q2 2023
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