Simon Property Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 30, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Third-quarter FFO of $1.2 billion ($3.20/share) exceeded last year, prompting a full-year 2023 guidance increase of $0.30 at midpoint to $12.15–$12.25 per share.
  • Domestic property NOI rose 4.2% year-over-year and overall portfolio NOI was up 4.3% (constant currency), with occupancy climbing to 95.2% and average base rents up nearly 3%.
  • Leasing momentum remains strong with over 970 new leases totaling 4.3 million sq ft in Q3 and a 1,100-deal pipeline expected to generate $400 million in revenue.
  • Balance sheet remains robust with $8.8 billion in liquidity, a 5.6% increase in the Q4 dividend to $1.90/share, and $140 million in share repurchases completed.
  • A partial sale of Spark stake generated a $0.32/share noncash gain but will reduce the Q4 FFO contribution by $0.05 as ownership falls from 50% to 33%.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Simon Property Group Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Simon Property Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to Tom Ward, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sherry, and thank you for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call are David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Also on the call are Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer And Adam Roy, Chief Accounting Officer. A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date. Reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8 ks filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors. Simon.com. Our conference call this evening will be limited to 1 hour.

Speaker 1

For I'm pleased to introduce David Simon.

Speaker 2

Good evening, and I'm pleased to report our 3rd quarter results. 3rd quarter funds from operation We're $1,200,000,000 or $3.20 per share. Let me walk you through some of the highlights for this quarter Compared to the same quarter of 2022, domestic and international operations had a very good performance this quarter And contributed $0.17 of growth, primarily driven by higher rental income, Non cash after tax gain gains of $0.32 in the 3rd quarter were related to the partial sale of our ownership interest in Spark and ABG as a result of ABG selling primary shares in the quarter. Higher interest expense was a setback of $0.07 year over year. We had a $0.15 lower contribution from our other property investment platform Compared to Q3 2022 and a $0.02 loss on mark to market of publicly traded securities.

Speaker 2

FFO from our Real Estate business was $2.91 per share in the 3rd quarter Compared to $283,000,000 in the prior period last year, so far Our real estate has produced $8.55 per share for the 1st 9 months compared to $840,000,000 from last year. We are pleased with the transaction Spark completed with Sheehan During the Q3 that demonstrated the value that we have created in that business, the transaction was significantly above our basis. And as a result, we recognize a gain in the corner. We and the transaction Ultimately reduced our ownership interest in Spark, from 50% to 33%, As we admitted Sheehan is a partner. Given our lower ownership interest in the back end weighting Profitability in the 4th quarter, we now expect $0.05 lower FFO contribution from Spark in the Q4 of this year.

Speaker 2

During the Q3, the Taubman family exercised their put right On a portion of their interest in TRG, we exchange $1,725,000,000 Partnership Interest Units for an additional 4% ownership interest, we now own 84% of TRG. Domestic property NOI increased 4.2% year over year for the quarter and 3.8% for the 1st 9 months. Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency, Grew 4.3% for the quarter and 4% for the 1st 9 months of the year. Mall and outlet occupancy at the end of the 3rd quarter was 95.2%, an increase of 70 basis points compared to last year. Our 3rd quarter occupancy is higher Then Q4 of last year, which has not occurred historically.

Speaker 2

The mills For all of our platforms, average base minimum rent for malls and outlets increased 2.9% Year over year and the mills was 3.6% year over year. Leasing momentum Continues across our portfolio. We signed more than 970 leases for approximately 4 point 3,000,000 square feet in the quarter. Through the 1st 9 months of 2023, we signed more than 3,005 100 Leases for 15,000,000 Square Feet, which is expected to generate over $1,000,000,000 of revenue. We have an additional 1100 deals in our pipeline, including renewals for another $400,000,000 in revenue.

Speaker 2

We are seeing strong broad based demand from retail community, including continued strength for many categories, Reported retail sales per square foot in the 3rd quarter was $7.44 For the mills and outlets combined and $676,000,000 for mills, we continue to be active in redevelopment new development. During the quarter, we started construction on a significant redevelopment at Brea Mall and a new upscale outlet center And Jakarta, our first premium outlet in Indonesia. We completed the refinancing of 11 property mortgages During the 1st 9 months of the year, for a total of $960,000,000 at an average rate of 6%. We have our balance sheet is strong with approximately $8,800,000,000 of liquidity. Today, we announced a dividend of $1.90 per share for the Q4, which is a year over year increase of 5.6%.

Speaker 2

The dividend is payable on December 29, and we also purchased approximately 1 point 27,000,000 shares of our common stock for $140,000,000 We are increasing our full year 2023 guidance from $11.85 to $11.95 to $12.15 to $12.25 per share. This is an increase of $0.30 at the midpoint. So to conclude, I'm pleased with our Q3 results. Our business is performing well and is ahead of our plan. Tenant demand is strong, occupancy is increasing, base minimum Rent levels are at record levels and we are very experienced at managing our business through volatile periods of time.

Speaker 2

And as you all know, this is when we do some of our best work. So we're now ready for your questions.

Operator

Thank before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Ron Kamden with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks so much. Just one on some of the guideposts you've given in the past. As we're flipping the calendar to 2024, You talked about sort of 3% organic growth as achievable. Just wondering how you're thinking about that and how we should think about Potential interest cost headwinds as that sort of rolls?

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Look, I think we feel good about that kind of comparable NOI growth. Our debt is reasonably laddered. So yes, we'll have some interest expense headwinds, But we still think we'll end up growing our business next year, with that said.

Speaker 3

Great. And if I thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Go ahead, Mohan.

Speaker 4

I I was just going

Speaker 3

to say if I can ask a follow-up just on the $0.30 guidance range. I think you talked about $0.32 gain and then $0.05 lower From the retailers, just wondering, is there any other sort of puts and takes that we should be mindful of? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. No, we're going to have $0.05 lower because of the Spark Sheehan deal. We lost a couple of cents from our mark to market on a couple of our public securities that we own last quarter. And essentially, The Real Estate business has been very significant to our growth And we'll kind of see where the Q4 ends up, but I think it's we'll our 97% of our business is going to outperform what we thought from originally what we had budgeted. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hi, good evening, everyone. David, I know you gave some numbers on recent leasing activity, which sounds really strong. I was wondering If you could give some additional context maybe to how that leasing activity compares to recent and pre pandemic years, maybe what that means for pricing and How that could impact permanent occupancy?

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, Caitlin. So I would say, Let me try and address your questions in no particular order. I think we'll be year end occupancy will be Obviously, higher than it is today. I don't know that it will be our highest ever, but it will be Within distance, pretty close. Even with all the volatility in the world and the market, We still expect we're still seeing demand very strong.

Speaker 2

I mean, we're Frankly, we're cautious. We're waiting for shoes to drop, but we haven't seen it Our new deals, whether it's F and B, entertainment, high end luxury tenants, athleisure, Just to name some categories, we're seeing we're still seeing a lot of demand on that front. And I would say from a Pricing element, we feel I would say we feel Comparable to the way we felt in the 2015, 2016, 2017 Error in terms of error, I guess that was almost 7, 8 years ago, but lots happened over those 7 or 8 years. But We still feel like that's kind of we're in that good shape where we're driving rents up and It's okay for the retailers. They're making deals and supply and demand is in our favor.

Speaker 2

Obviously, we cycled through a lot of poor performing retailers due to COVID. And The ones that we are doing new deals with are excited to do business with us. Pricing is for sure going in the right direction. Occupancy is going up and tenant demand is Pretty strong across the whole spectrum. And even in certain categories, Just to take luxury, yes, there are some that are being more cautious, but there's plenty that are growing new stores.

Speaker 2

It's really retail specific. Obviously, bricks and mortar Through the pandemic to today has proven its value to retailers. I'm sure you hear that on the conference calls from retailers. So in that sense, We're making a lot of good stuff happen. Brian, did you have something on

Speaker 6

the occupancy? I was just going to say we continue to About 30% of our deals being new deals in the quarter. So that's consistent with the prior quarter as well. So there is definitely lots of activity on a new deal basis.

Speaker 5

Great. Sounds encouraging. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI.

Speaker 7

Good evening, everyone. David, maybe provide color on how your malls are performing versus outlets, Maybe from a regional standpoint, coastal, non coastal, Sunbelt, just trying to see what if there's any differences from a leasing standpoint? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. It's interesting. I would say we're seeing pretty good Tenant sales growth on the tourism properties, whether they're outlet or malls. Now The most of our pure tourist properties are really the outlet centers, and we're seeing good growth in that category. Traffic generally is slightly above last year, still slightly below 2019, but obviously conversion is way up because our sales are on a per square foot basis are much higher than 2019.

Speaker 2

I would say generally whether mall or outlet, the Sunbelt area Has produced pretty good results in terms of sales year to date. We saw actually a decent pickup In California, which was encouraging, but really good growth in the Woodberry Common that is finally getting the tourism back to where it is. And apparel has been strong in the outlet business. There's no question people are looking for A little more value or maybe they're looking for a lot more value given the higher inflation That the consumers had to deal with, not a huge bifurcation between malls and outlets. It's very property specific.

Speaker 2

The different as you know, we reported flat sales Basically quarter over quarter and there's no real difference between outlets and malls in that number. Luxury probably well, it didn't probably. It did flatten out in The Q3 of this year, for sure, but it wasn't across the board. It was more a couple of specific retailers had a tough Q3, others were up. So it was really retailer specific, Jewelry, malls may have a little more exposure to jewelry.

Speaker 2

So that was a category that took a A little more on the chin. Yes, some of our higher end retailers in the jewelry category performed well. So it was Basically not a real trend. I'd say the most important thing that Come away with is that the Sunbelt continues to perform well, and we're seeing the tourist Kind of make a nice comeback. They've been lagging a little bit more than the others over time and a little bit of flatlining In the luxury category.

Speaker 2

Tom?

Speaker 7

Thank you, Dave.

Speaker 2

Brian, anything you want to add? I think

Speaker 6

you covered it, David.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Alexander Goldfar with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Hey, good evening. Good evening, Arthur, David. So I'll do one question and I'll hold the follow-up. As you guys gain leverage with the tenants, Are you seeing tangible ability to get more favorable terms? One of the issues with retail over time has The tenants, especially the larger tenants or the more anchor ish or more fashion like the hot tenants

Speaker 8

of the

Speaker 4

day Are driving lease terms traditionally. Curious if you're seeing a change in that, which would translate to an ability to accelerate Rent growth, NOI growth, etcetera.

Speaker 2

Well, we don't have I mean, thank you for the question, Alex. We're not that far away. You always say out here, we're really not that far away. But put that aside, We it's not a question of leverage over the retailers. I think what we have going for us It's a great diverse portfolio.

Speaker 2

It's the best in the industry From mills to our outlets to our full price malls. And That's unique. Its size, its scale, its quality that we've built up over many, many years. Ann, as you remember, I don't think it was last quarter, maybe it was Tom, but when we went through information of the portfolio was in last quarter. So we've done a lot to try to improve the quality of the portfolio.

Speaker 2

And I would say that, obviously, there's no not a lot of new retail being built. There is not a lot of retailers closing stores and or going bankrupt. And I think most retailers today know kind of the good malls and the good properties versus the not so good. And When you add that up, supply and demand is in our favor, and we're generating market rents. It's neither here nor there.

Speaker 2

But importantly, and I think I'd like to address this with you is that and again, I'm sure retailers have different point of view, but I think they The most interesting fact that or the most interesting thing that we have going for us in addition to the quality, The etcetera that I mentioned, they know we're going to be around. So And they know that we'll stick to a deal, we'll make it happen. When we say we're going to redevelop something, we do it. And I think that when there are open to buys, We tend to get our fair share of those or more than because of some of The factors that I mentioned quality, scale, but also the fact that they know we're going to get the job done. And obviously, Yes.

Speaker 2

There has been a lot of changes in mall ownership over the years, Balance sheet and quality of operations is a two way street. It's both As we look at retailers, we assess that. They certainly assess us. And I think that gives us An advantage that we worked very hard as you know to achieve and I mean, how do I say this? I mean, we've really outpaced our peer group dramatically, Dramatically.

Speaker 2

And any measure you want, growth, earnings, dividend, quality of operations, scale, Balance sheet, I know we all focus quarter to quarter and this and that, but If you take a step back and you go, what do you got going for yet? And again, we don't This sounds a little braggadocious. I don't want it to, but I mean we've really outpaced. If you look over the last 10, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years, we've dramatically outpaced our peer group.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you. No follow-up. I stumped you. I love it.

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you. Good afternoon. David, just want to tie in Some of the leasing comments, the momentum you're seeing, the deals in the pipeline, the high occupancy levels To the redevelopment pipeline and just I guess how are you thinking about that pipeline And the ability to increase that like how are you going to satisfy some of the needs out there and continue to capture that market share maybe even more?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jeff. So look, I think we have the ability to develop and redevelop, Because we're not essentially what I said earlier, we're not listen, we got to be stewards of capital. We got to be very focused, but We're not capital constrained the way Some others might be. And our ability to invest in our portfolio Is unmatched. So we intend to do that.

Speaker 2

Now at the same time, Jeff, rates are up. Returns for us have to be up. And so you haven't seen a really big change in our 8 ks redevelopment, But that takes time because a lot of the stuff was put in place. But when we build something new or we redevelop, we're going to have Do a better job of leasing and returns and to warrant that capital because just about everything We do. I mean, we still want to maintain our leadership position, but just about every Amount of capital we spend, I have to measure it in my own mind against buying our stock back.

Speaker 2

And I mean, our stock as you saw, we bought stock back. So our stock is pretty compelling. So we want to redevelop, we want a new develop, but we got a high hurdle that we got to jump over. So Like we've done historically, I expect us to find the right balance Between continuing and to maintain our leadership position, investing in our properties for the benefit of Shareholders, communities, retailers alike, but at the same time, we got to be economic animals. And that's what everybody here understands that process, and that's what we try and achieve.

Operator

Our Next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. David, you specifically mentioned the performance of the real estate business on this call several times, which has been strong. At the same time, this quarter, you sold off some of Spark. So how can you continue to refine some of the ancillary parts of the business So that the strength that we're seeing and that you're talking about on the core business can continue to shine through?

Speaker 2

Well, listen, It's a very good question and it's less and less of our business. As you know, it's under 5% of our earnings. You You also have to understand that when we add to the when When we add it to our FFO, it's net income, which in many of these cases, you don't add well, all of these cases, you Don't add back depreciation. So EBITDA and our FFO contribution are much different. Importantly, these have all been Profitable endeavors.

Speaker 2

But we understand that even the small amount of Earnings that we get in comparison to our total earnings power is Volatile. People don't like the volatility. We'll like we did with Spark earlier, we're going to continue to harvest Our investments over time and as we do that, we're going to If you ask me today, we'll monetize things over time, and we're going to buy our stock back because It's wildly accretive because let's look at it. You know what I trade at as a multiple of FFO And you know I have investment value in these investments, but they give us very little earnings because of GAAP. And if you do the math, you could see the accretion we would get on a buyback.

Speaker 2

So they're basically I get no earnings from them, but I've got value. And it's our job to get the value into cash, Take the cash, buy our stock back or invest in properties and have a bygone error of the time, but with an asterisk that said attaboy, you made a lot of money. So that's the strategy. I hope that answers your question.

Operator

Our next question is from Floris Van Dijkstra With Compass Point, please proceed.

Speaker 10

Hey, David. Thanks for taking my question. So, I was curious on TRG. So I noticed the occupancy dips a little bit. You essentially, you want to increasing your ownership by 4% by issuing some OPUs.

Speaker 10

What price Where was the stock issued at and what yield are you buying? What's the implied cap rate on the TRG business? And how should we think about that also As it relates to other potential opportunities in the market and how much flexibility was there? And then maybe I guess in terms of the timing of the next sort of Puts or hurdles that you have for increasing your interest in that business going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me just talk to you about the exchange a little bit and then Brian can give you an idea. The occupancy No big deal, but I'll let Brian go through that. So, Taubman has the right to put their interest There are 4% interest for the next 5 years, and it's basically At essentially appraised value, it's either a negotiation or we get appraisal firms and We decided to negotiate in good faith. We made a deal And then we issued the stock.

Speaker 2

And I mean, the reality is We're trading Simon Property Group unequivocally is trading below appraised value. So One of the reasons we bought our stock back was, I'm not a big fan of issuing stock at this moment in time. So we'll Use our capital to basically get rid of the dilution that we did issue. Now Taubman had that right. They exercised it appropriately.

Speaker 2

We had a good faith negotiation, made a deal and it was more or less at their appraised value. And to put it in perspective For today's value, it's probably pretty close to where We negotiated our deal with Taubman pre COVID And then obviously, we got the COVID adjustment, but it was in that range kind of where the deal was announced publicly. And so we're going to quarterize that dilution by buying our stock We started that once we made the deal. And I think the family is pretty smart. They said, Simon Property Group stock is undervalued and I like the dividend and why not.

Speaker 2

So I think I don't know what will happen next year. It could be the same thing. But at this point, they have 16% left in TRG. We're happy to own 100% of TRG. I think they're happy to do what they're doing and we'll As time goes on, but nothing can happen the rest of this year And at sometime next year that this all recycles.

Speaker 2

So with that said, I hope that answers that. But I'll Brian, if you want to add anything to that, please.

Speaker 6

Nothing on that. But Floris, on your question about their occupancy, it is back 110 basis points. There are really 2 major spaces that they had to take out of commission that they come back online in the Q4. So you will see that come back on and then And some in the Q4. It's just simply timing.

Speaker 10

Got it. And if I may if you don't mind, If I recall correctly, I have to look at my notes, but the cap rate at the time that you did the deal was It had a 6 handle on it. Is that the right way to think about the appraised value for TRG?

Speaker 2

Well, again, this was a negotiated deal. Their view of appraised value Started much higher than that with all due respect for us, which you might imagine. But we settled on a deal that today, If you go back in time to Taubman pre COVID would have attributed Taubman's Per share number in the $51 range. So somewhere in that range, We ended up, if you remember, doing COVID at $43 a share. I will tell you that their NOI Today is higher than it was in 2019.

Speaker 2

Portfolio has changed here and there. So it's really hard to do And apple on apple, but at the end of the day, that gives you the sense of things. But You're not that far off. I think that's a reasonable estimate. But that kind of puts all the metrics out there.

Speaker 2

And again, not a huge deal in the scheme of things, under a couple of 100,000,000 today. So But it gives you a perspective of kind of that. I think they would argue the appraised value is much higher than what they Exchange yet, but we ultimately did not go through the appraisal process.

Speaker 9

Thanks, David.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Hi, good afternoon. So minimum base rents were about 3% year over year, which is about the same level as contractual bumps. So I'm just trying to get a sense of leasing spread economics here. Like does that mean leasing spreads are also in the low single digit range? Or are there No other factors influencing this metric, one way or another?

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I'll see if Brian will add to it. And just Remember, this is the total portfolio. So to move this thing up takes a lot, right? And spreads are just A moment, leases that come in and go out. So, you can't really look at it that way.

Speaker 2

So for us to move The entire portfolio gives you a sense of leasing spreads. Now, if you look at whatever what page is on the 8 ks, The new We added some new information there on the 21. 29? 21. 21.

Speaker 2

That you'll see some of that Some of these that are going in there now are driving the rent. Those numbers now include our new leases that are driving that basement rent up.

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean, we typically only touch 10% of our leases a year, Vince. So you got to factor that in as well. So renewals are about 10%, but the balances are new leases, which as David said, are really driving the higher or contributing to the higher average basement rents.

Speaker 8

But is my was my statement fair though that Contractual bumps for base rent are still around 3% or are they lower than that overall portfolio?

Speaker 6

No, they're right in that range, Vince.

Speaker 8

And then just was there any color you can share about renewal spreads? And I know it's hard to move the overall portfolio with 10%, but just kind of Conversation means they're not too far away from the average contractual bumps because if they were Plus 30%, Vic, an extreme example, like we could see that in the metrics. So I'm just trying to ultimately get some more color here on

Speaker 2

Renewal economic? Yes. I mean, I guess, again, Vince, in order to have the average base minimum rent go up for 20,000 leases, Okay. Of 3% versus 10% to 15% That calculate spread, you're going to be mathematically going to have Rent spreads that are higher than the 3%. And we'll walk you through that later, but that Just from a math point of view, there's just no way that that can drive that number up, but we'll walk you through that.

Speaker 2

So When you say that, we would say to you that's Not reality because in order to drive up average basement rent for 20,000 leases or thereabouts, You're going to have to outperform much more than the 3% on just what's rolling over. No question.

Speaker 8

No, so we can take it offline.

Speaker 2

I appreciate the time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Greg McGinnis with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Speaker 11

Hey, good evening, David and Brian. I'll keep this to 1.5 questions for you. So last quarter you spoke about potentially being More active with asset recycling or reallocating real estate capital. Have the challenges facing the financing market changed those expectations at all? Or how How are you thinking about that today?

Speaker 11

And how are higher interest rates impacting your customers and tenants?

Speaker 2

Well, it I'll take the last first. So I would say higher interest rates Inflation clearly is affecting a Good portion of the consumer out there. So their affordability for And we're seeing this most on the consumer on what I'd call the kind of the more The brands that are focused on the more moderate income consumer. So there's no question that that's having some impact. But the good news is you got employment and you got wage growth that It's counterbalancing that, but they're definitely being more cautious.

Speaker 2

That's not necessarily affecting a higher income consumer to the extent that you might otherwise think, But it's clearly affecting the lower or more moderate income consumer that They're being more cautious. And from our standpoint, from a retail point of view, Demand, like I said earlier, we haven't seen it affecting retailers too much in terms of their growth plans. But we obviously monitor that every day. So from our standpoint, Our cost of capital is up. So any investment we make, as I mentioned earlier, Is in the is measured against return we would get from buying our Back to return that we would get from redevelopment or development.

Speaker 2

And given that, that's why we haven't been active on the acquisition front. And I don't expect that to really change. In addition, we're always looking at monetizing our assets, whether it's Real estate or otherwise, and to the extent that we can make the math work and we create liquidity through asset sales, The math is very compelling for us to do that to buy our stock back. And so you'll see more of that trend continue. Great.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi. Just a quick one here. And I know this is a bit of a hypothetical, but do you think you would have bought stock back If you didn't issue the shares to Taubman?

Speaker 2

I think we would buy I'm sorry. I think we're looking it's a good question, a fair question. And let me say this, The way I'm thinking about it. So to the extent that we have additional liquidity events Or in the case of Taubman, dealing with the dilution of issuing stock at this price, There is no question we're going to buy our stock back. To the extent that we don't I don't have an answer for you yet on Whether we would have done it absent The TRG issuance or an enhanced liquidity from asset sales, But like I said, our development pipeline, redevelopment pipeline is very much, Very much measured up against the stock buyback and every asset I've got.

Speaker 2

I don't have to own anything at this point. I'm happy to sell assets at the right price To buy our stock back. And I think you'll see more of that from us over time. And that could be real estate and or other stuff.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And real quick, and just in case I missed this, was there any change to the OPI CI guidance that's embedded in your current FFO outlook?

Speaker 2

Yes. We've lowered it other than the you understand the $0.05 because we own less of Spark. We have lowered it For the Q4 by roughly guys For the

Speaker 6

Q4, it would be about $0.20

Speaker 2

Yes. Roughly $0.20 in the 4th quarter. Lower contribution. Lower contribution. If you look in total for the year And our share of that is roughly if you take out the $0.05 we've lowered it about $0.15

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citigroup. Please proceed.

Speaker 12

Thanks. It's actually Nick Joseph here with Craig. David, you've talked a lot on the share buybacks. It sounds like in your answer to the last question, we're open to asset sales and other Opportunities, what are you seeing in the transaction market today in terms of those asset sales? Where are cap rates?

Speaker 12

What's the buyer pool like? And are you seeing an opportunity to try to crystallize some of that disconnect between the stock price and where you'd hope to sell an asset?

Speaker 2

Well, look, I think domestic retail is Not a lot of transactions, but we have assets throughout the world. That's 1. 2 is obviously we've got investments in our OPI category. But frankly, domestic assets other than maybe some of our residential stuff, hotel stuff, there's just not a lot happening. And we might see some stuff, but I think that won't be really driving Kind of the activity that we would anticipate.

Speaker 12

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Speaker 13

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. About 6% of ABR is on month to month leasing and then 12% expiring for 24. How much of the month to month is getting converted to permanent or should that number grow? And then in terms of the 12% expiring in 24, What's been addressed from a renewal standpoint from where you stand today?

Speaker 2

Yes. I know that There is a number of leases in 2023 that are basically agreed to. We're just Finalizing the documentation. So that's the first. And I would think that generally, we're More than halfway through 24s right now on a kind of a negotiated, not papered basis.

Speaker 2

So, Brian, I don't know if you want to add anything to it, but that would be that's kind of where we are generically.

Speaker 6

And Linda, you can see the material change Q2 over to Q3. We've cleared about 2,200,000 square feet out of that category. It's just a matter of processing. We talked about it on our last call. There's just a lag effect in the processing of those leases.

Speaker 6

So we do expect that to continue.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question is from Haendel Sijbes with Mizuho. Please proceed.

Speaker 14

Hey, good evening out there. Dave, I just had a quick follow-up on the consumer retail sales line of question from earlier. I think you noted your portfolio sales were flattish during the quarter. We've heard from other sectors, storage, apartments, it seemed like the consumer hit a bit of a wall During the Q3 in September, I'm curious if you saw anything within the quarter, maybe in September of that sort? And then perhaps what's your expectations in the near term outlook for Retail sales for your portfolio and the consumer as we head into the holiday season the next year?

Speaker 14

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Well, generally, as we said earlier in the year, we expect to be more or less flat. So that's kind of what our expectations Continue to be in terms of retail reported retailer sales. Again, we feel pretty good The higher income consumer, we've also got a balancing Act in terms of some of our value oriented centers will maybe play a more of an important role for our consumer Today that they might not have otherwise played last couple of years. But It's unknown.

Speaker 2

I mean, I we're being extra cautious because of the Inflation is still a little bit there, still taking a bite out of the consumer. And obviously, you've got rates that are beginning to talk to The economic system. So cautious, flat. We're not anticipating a downturn, But not a robust sales growth for the Q4, relatively flat.

Speaker 14

Got it. Appreciate that. If I could squeeze in a follow-up, I think you mentioned earlier as well that you started, I think it was $960,000,000 of new redevelopment at 6% yields and you talked about a higher hurdle rate, maybe some color on perhaps what that hurdle rate today is and where the next batch of redevelopment yields or projects Would need to be and where we could see the migrate to? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes, I think the It's a little bit dependent upon the real estate. So and what we're trying to accomplish and what the benefits That real estate are and where the market is for that. So for instance, When we build a new residential apartment house, we Look at kind of where the value and the cap rates for that are. They may be obviously lower than our own, but to the extent that we feel like we might sell it And make the arbitrage, we'll do that.

Speaker 2

Again, if we're Got an asset that's a 6 cap rate, we're building to an 8 that's creating value. On the other hand, if we have an 8 asset that's we're building to a 6, it ain't going to happen. So there's no There is we have themes. We have points of view. But just like Anything else, every transaction we do, every redevelopment we do really is grounded by What we're trying to accomplish with that real estate.

Speaker 2

So, but overall, again, like I said earlier, We've got to push it higher because our cost of capital regardless is up across the board. So we don't have the luxury to build dilutive deals. And as you know, we've never really bought dilutive. We've never really built dilutive, and we certainly don't anticipating doing that today. We've always had a spread to our financing and to the quality of what we've built.

Speaker 2

We expect that to continue, but that obviously those thresholds have been raised. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our final question is from Juan Sanabrio with BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 6

Just curious if you could comment on Kind of the watch list, you've commented about the consumer, but maybe what the bad debt has been year to date, what the historical levels is in your perspective as you think about 2024?

Speaker 2

The watch list on retailers? Yes, sir. Yes. It's relatively low. There are a couple that were there today that probably Last year, obviously, I'm not going to name those.

Speaker 2

So it certainly hasn't grown all that much, But there are 1 or 2 retailers that we're paying close attention to. And I probably wouldn't have said that Last year. So I think that I mean, it's not a very good answer, but it's probably the best way To explain it without naming names, but there are a couple on that list That didn't exist yesterday, but they're not ten names, there are a couple. Brian, you want to add anything?

Speaker 6

No, I think that's right, David. We've it is certainly And it's at a relatively low point relative to history.

Speaker 2

Yes. And I want to just Confirm with everyone that, that is as you look at our what pages are top tenant list on? It's on 22. 22. It's certainly None of the category that is in our top 10 or top 20.

Speaker 2

So And as you know, our department stores don't pay really don't pay all that much while you have the rent there in terms of what they pay.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would like to turn The conference back over to Mr. Simon for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you. And we finished a little bit early. So I think Hello. Enjoy the rest of the evening.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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