NYSE:MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities Q3 2023 Earnings Report $161.54 -3.28 (-1.99%) Closing price 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$161.66 +0.12 (+0.07%) As of 07:39 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Mid-America Apartment Communities EPS ResultsActual EPSN/AConsensus EPS $2.28Beat/MissN/AOne Year Ago EPS$2.19Mid-America Apartment Communities Revenue ResultsActual RevenueN/AExpected Revenue$540.02 millionBeat/MissN/AYoY Revenue GrowthN/AMid-America Apartment Communities Announcement DetailsQuarterQ3 2023Date10/26/2023TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateThursday, October 26, 2023Conference Call Time10:00AM ETConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfilePowered by Mid-America Apartment Communities Q3 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrOctober 26, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 20 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, the company will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, October 26, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Adam Shafer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments. Speaker 100:00:30Thank you, Britney, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schafer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team also participating on the call with me this morning are Eric Bolton, Tim Argo, Al Campbell, Rob Del Priore, Joe Fracchia, Brad Hill and Clay Holder. Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. Speaker 100:00:59We encourage you to refer to the forward looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results. During this call, we will also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures As well as reconciliations of the differences between non GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. Speaker 100:01:39After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer I will now turn the call over to Eric. Speaker 200:01:46Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. MAA's 3rd quarter FFO performance was ahead of our expectations as the demand side of our business continues to capture good leasing traffic, low resident turnover, Positive migration trends and strong collections performance. During the quarter, we did see a higher impact from new supply deliveries Several of our larger markets with the resulting impact showing up in pricing associated with new move in residents. While we continue to believe that MAA's unique market diversification, a more affordable rent structure and an Deliveries in several markets will continue to weigh on rent growth associated with new resident move ins for the next few quarters. Encouragingly, there is now clear evidence emerging that new supply deliveries are poised to meaningfully drop late next year into 2025. Speaker 200:02:49We have certainly worked through these supply cycles before And continue to believe that MAA's more extensive market and submarket diversification, new AI and technology tools and an experienced operating team has us in a position to outperform our markets. As we have discussed previously, One of the benefits that typically emerges from a heavy supply cycle, particularly one that is characterized by higher interest rates Is an increasing volume of acquisition and external growth opportunities. We have seen a shift take place with seller and developer pricing expectations. The more challenging lease up conditions coupled with higher interest rates that are likely to be with us for a while are generating more buying opportunities. As Brad will recap in his comments, the property acquisition we completed after quarter end is a good example and where we expect more opportunities to emerge, specifically a recently completed new development that is still in initial lease up with seller requirements to close within a short timeframe. Speaker 200:03:58Before turning the call over to the team to provide details surrounding our performance and market conditions, Let me summarize what I believe are the 4 key takeaways in our report. 1st, demand across our markets remain solid and supportive of Steady absorption of the new supply. Secondly, current high levels of new supply coupled with developer pressures related to a higher interest rate environment Will cause the leasing environment to remain competitive for the next few quarters with new supply pressures expected to then decline. We expect to see an increasing number of compelling external growth opportunities in 2024. And 4th, MAA's long track record of performance And experience in working with markets with higher demand and supply dynamics now further supported by a stronger technology platform and a strong balance Speaker 300:05:00Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. As anticipated, we saw an increase in for sale marketing activity emerge early in the Q3. And while closed transactions are limited in number, we continue to see some upward pressure on cap rates on projects we track, with cap rates up by roughly 15 basis points from 2Q. As indicated in our earnings release, we recently closed The Phoenix market that we began pursuing early in 3Q. MAA Central Avenue is a 323 Unit Mid Rise The property is in its initial lease up And the seller was under some pressure to close on the sale by a specific date. Speaker 300:05:46So counterparty risk considerations were paramount to the seller. Our familiarity with the market, speed of execution and balance sheet strength that supports an ability to close all cash With no financing contingencies were all aspects of our offer that were very important to the seller. Our pricing of approximately $317,000 per unit is substantially below current replacement costs and is expected to provide An initial stabilized NOI yield of 5.5 percent. With the property nearing stabilization, we expect over the following year or so to capture further margin and yield As a result of adopting MAA's more sophisticated revenue management practices and technology platform, coupled with our future ability to achieve operational synergies with another MAA property that is only half a mile away. Our transaction team is very active in evaluating other acquisition opportunities across our footprint. Speaker 300:06:44And Al and Clay have our balance sheet in great Despite pressure from elevated supply, our new properties in their initial lease up continue to deliver strong performance, producing higher NOIs and earnings than forecasted, creating additional long term value for the company. These properties on average have captured in place rents 15% above our original expectations. For the 5 properties that are either leasing or will start leasing by the end of the year, this rent outperformance, which is partially Higher expenses including taxes and insurance is estimated to produce an average stabilized NOI yield of 6.7%, significantly higher than our original expectations. Leasing has progressed well at MA Windmill Hill in Austin, And we expect this community to stabilize this quarter. We continue to advance predevelopment work on several projects, but due to some permitting and approval delays, Three projects that we plan to start this year will likely instead start in early 2024. Speaker 300:07:52In a number of markets In a number of our markets, construction costs have been slower to adjust than we expected, but we continue to see signs that a broader reduction in cost is likely to come. Numerous consultants that we work with, including architects and engineers, have indicated their volume of work has significantly decreased in the last few months, Providing further evidence of a decline in new construction activity. Additionally, general contractors are indicating they have more capacity to start new projects and in many cases with a larger pool of subcontractors available. In addition to the 3 projects mentioned that we expect to start over the next 6 months, We have 5 more projects representing approximately 13 20 units that could be ready for construction start by the end of 2024. Our team has done a tremendous job building out our future development pipeline and today we own or control 13 well located sites, representing a growth opportunity of nearly 3,700 units. Speaker 300:08:52We have optionality on when we start these projects, Allowing us to maintain our patience and discipline when making capital deployment decisions. Any project we start in 2024 will deliver units into a stronger environment with lower competitive supply in late 20252026. Our development team continues to evaluate land sites as well as additional prepurchase development opportunities. In this more constrained liquidity environment, we are hopeful that we may find additional development opportunities to add to our future pipeline. In addition to continuously monitoring the construction market and evaluating costs at our projects In predevelopment, our construction management team is focused on completing and delivering our remaining 5 under construction projects. Speaker 300:09:37During the Q3, the team successfully wrapped up construction on Novel West Midtown in Atlanta, completing the delivery of all 3 40 units. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 400:09:50Thanks, Brad, and good morning. Same store revenue growth for the Increasing supply pressure did impact pricing in some of our markets, resulting in blended lease over lease pricing of 1 point comprised of new lease rates declining 2.2% and renewal rates increasing 5%. Average physical occupancy was 95.7 percent resulting in revenue growth of 4.1%. The various metrics we measure related to demand remain strong. Employment markets remain stable with continued job growth across our Sunbelt markets. Speaker 400:10:33Net positive migration trends to our markets continue with move ins to our footprint well ahead of move outs outside of our footprint and remain consistent with what we have seen in the last several quarters. Resident turnover was down once again in the 3rd quarter, a 4% decrease from prior year. Collections remain strong and consistent with prior quarters. Our new resident rent to income ratio remains low and in line with prior quarters And our lead volume is consistent with what we would expect and in line with pre pandemic levels. But as mentioned, we did feel The impact from new supply in the Q3, which manifested itself in lower new lease pricing, particularly beginning in August September. Speaker 400:11:14This pressure was driven by higher concession usage by developers in many of our markets with the resulting reduction in net pricing in the number of our direct market comps. This peer pricing movement obviously does impact market pricing and impacts our asking rents. We believe the lingering higher interest rate environment With the 10 year treasury moving up quickly in the Q3 is driving merchant developers to get more aggressive on pricing and is creating some pockets of pricing pressure. Historically, with typical seasonality, pricing trends, pricing tends to moderate some in Q3 as compared to Q2 and then moderate quite a bit more from Q3 to Q4, typically in the 200 basis point range. While we did see a greater degree of moderation in the 3rd quarter as compared to 2nd quarter, with the solid demand factors mentioned previously, we expect less moderation than normal from Q3 to Q4. Speaker 400:12:08October to date, blended lease over lease pricing is 0, which is within 10 basis points of what was achieved in September and a lower rate of decline than the more typical 60 basis points. Average physical occupancy for October month to date remains Strong at 95.6 percent with exposure, which is a combination of current vacancy and units on notice to vacate, That's 6.9% and in line with October of last year. In addition to the demand factors mentioned, Increased absorption through the Q3 in the Sunbelt markets provides further evidence of continued solid demand to help mitigate The impact is the continuing new deliveries. The amount of new supply that was absorbed in the Q3 in our markets was the highest it has been since the beginning of 2022. Despite the new supply pressure in some markets, our unique portfolio strategy to maintain a broad diversity of markets, submarkets, asset types and price points It's serving us well with many of our mid tier markets leading the portfolio and pricing performance both in the Q3 and into October. Speaker 400:13:12Savannah, Charleston, Richmond, Greenville and Raleigh are examples of markets outperforming larger metros with more new supply pressures such as Austin and Phoenix. We expect that this market diversification combined with the continued strong demand fundamentals noted earlier will help continue to mitigate some of the impact from new supply as compared to a less diversified portfolio. Regarding redevelopment, we continued our various product upgrade initiatives in the Q3. For the Q3 of 2023, we completed nearly 2,300 interior unit upgrades and are nearing completion on the smart home initiative Over 92,000 units now with this technology. For our repositioning program, we have 5 active projects that have either begun repricing or will begin repricing in the 4th quarter with expected deals in the 8% range. Speaker 400:14:01Additionally, we are evaluating an additional group of properties to potentially begin construction later in 2023 or early in 2024 with the targets That's all I had in the way of prepared comments. I'll now turn the call over to Clay. Speaker 500:14:17Thank you, Tim, and good morning. Reporting core FFO for the quarter of $2.29 per share was $0.03 per share above the midpoint of our guidance. The outperformance was primarily driven by favorable interest and overhead costs during the quarter. Overall, same store operating performance for the quarter was in line with our expectation. Same store revenues were slightly ahead of expectations as average occupancy was better than forecasted. Speaker 500:14:43The increase in occupancy was offset by the moderation of effective rent growth on new move in leases that Tim mentioned. As expected, we began to Some moderation in same store operating expense growth during the Q3. However, this moderation was less than what we had forecasted. Personnel costs came at higher than expected, primarily due to higher contract labor costs and higher leasing commissions, which helped drive the improvements in occupancy. The personnel costs were partially offset by real estate taxes that were favorable to our forecast for the quarter. Speaker 500:15:15We received more information related to the Texas state legislation that was passed in the quarter that reduced property tax rates in the state. Our projection for real estate taxes for the full year remains unchanged. During the quarter, we invested a total of $19,700,000 of capital through our redevelopment, repositioning and smart rent installation programs. Those investments continue to produce strong returns and add to the quality of our portfolio. We also funded just over $47,000,000 of development costs during the Quarter for the completion of the current $643,000,000 pipeline, leaving $296,000,000 remaining to be funded on this pipeline over the next 2 years. Speaker 500:15:56As Brad mentioned, we also expect to start several new projects over the next 12 to 18 months, which our balance sheet remains well positioned to support. We ended the quarter with $1,400,000,000 in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, providing significant opportunity to fund potential investment opportunities. Our leverage remains historically low with the debt to EBITDA ratio at 3.4 times. And at quarter end, our debt was 100% fixed for an average of just over 7 years at a low average interest rate of 3.4%. In October, we refinanced $350,000,000 of maturing debt, Utilizing cash on our balance sheet and our commercial paper program. Speaker 500:16:36Our current plan is to continue to be patient and allow interest rates and financing markets to stabilize before refinancing. That's all I have for my prepared comments and I'll turn it over to Al to discuss Q4 guidance. Speaker 600:16:48Thank you, Clay. Good morning, everyone. Given the Q3 performance outlined by Clay as well as expectations for the remainder of the year, we have updated and narrowed our guidance ranges for the year, which detailed in the supplement to our release. Overall, the Q3 core FFO favorability primarily related to overhead and interest costs is expected to be essentially offset The higher than projected same store operating expenses for the remainder of the year, which I'll discuss a bit more in just a moment. Thus, we're maintaining the midpoint of our core FFO projection for the full year of $9.14 per share, which reflects a 7.5% growth over the prior year. Speaker 600:17:24The midpoint of our total revenue growth projection for the year remains unchanged as The impact of pricing moderation, which is reflected in effective rent growth, is largely offset by the increase in projected average occupancy for the year. However, we have increased our guidance for same store operating expense growth for the full year by 45 basis points to 6.5% at the midpoint, primarily reflecting the continued pressure in labor costs, partially related to building higher occupancy. Both personnel and repair and maintenance are expected to moderate more as we move into 2024. While we maintained our full year guidance range for real estate taxes, we are impacted by some timing related pressure during the 4th Some of the initial favorability related to the Texas rate reduction is essentially offset by delays in litigation related to high valuations, which is being pushed into next year. We do expect real estate taxes overall to continue moderating over the next couple of years as we work through the changing cap rate environment. Speaker 600:18:20We also reduced our total overhead cost projection for the year by $2,000,000 to $126,500,000 at the midpoint And we removed our disposition expectations for the current year to reflect the current market conditions. So that's all that we have in the way of prepared comments. Brittany, we'll now turn the call Back to you for Operator00:18:41questions. We will now open the call up for questions. We'll take our first question from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Line is open. Speaker 700:18:58Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is just on the impact Of the merchant builders delivering into a higher supply, higher rate environment, it seems like it's changed the leak up strategy. So I guess, is the largest impact here that rental rates have gone low have moved lower And will remain lower longer. And so I guess, the initial expectations, so will Does this create more pressure in the near term and also for longer? Speaker 700:19:32Or is it just kind of a lower dip before it gets Better kind of seems like back half of Speaker 800:19:38twenty twenty four early twenty twenty five. Speaker 400:19:40I mean, I don't think it necessarily means longer. I think what What did happen as we talked about it, it happened a little bit quicker and I think the comments I made about the treasury and developers get more aggressive Calls that moderation in new lease rates to occur a little bit earlier than we would have thought or a little bit quicker really. We don't see much further deceleration. I think what we see is with renewal rates continuing to be strong, We're getting 5% on what we've sent out or what we've got acceptance on for November December at the 5% range. The spread between new lease rates and renewal rates is pretty typical honestly for this time of the year and tends to gap out Both in Q4 and Q1, I think as you get into later into 2024, there'll be some normal seasonality that'll Narrow that gap, but we'll be in this supply environment for the next few quarters, but don't expect materially worsening from here. Speaker 700:20:44Got it. And are you seeing any difference in the performance between your Class B properties with your price that are discounted supply versus The Class A, which should be competing more in line with where the new supply is coming in, like where is the pressure hitting the hardest? Thank you. Speaker 400:21:02At a portfolio level, we're not seeing a huge difference between the performance in As and Bs. I will say at a market level, some of our larger markets That are getting more of the supply. We're seeing a little more pressure on some of those B plus, A minus assets where that gap has narrowed. But I do think that creates some opportunity longer term. Those new developments are going to have to stabilize at some point at higher rents and that will create some opportunity there. Speaker 400:21:27But in some of our more mid tier markets and smaller markets that aren't getting quite the supply pressure, we're not seeing that pressure. Speaker 200:21:33And I think it's worth noting that Even at the use of concessions is happening by some of the merchant developers in the Q3, the price Operator00:22:09Thank you. We'll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc. Your line is open. Speaker 900:22:15Great. Thank you. Last quarter, Eric, you had mentioned that you really didn't expect new lease rate growth to drop off and kind of highlighted that demand remains strong. So I guess, is it just been the cumulative impact of supply and concessions on lease ups that's driven the softness? And really, how does that change your view around how 2020 Speaker 200:22:39Well, Austin, I think that, as Tim alluded to, I mean, the That frankly was a little bit surprising in the Q3 was the more aggressive Practices taking place by some of the merchant developers that was directly impacting some of our product in some of the larger markets. We do think that there's It's interesting, we were looking at just sort of what happened during the Q3 in terms of the sort of rapid ramp up in the 10 year treasuries. And I think as developers are facing, particularly merchant builders who are facing a more competitive leasing landscape With the reality of a prolonged high interest rate environment, there was a motivation, if you will, To get pretty darn aggressive in trying to get leased up before we got into the holiday season. And so that affected market dynamics In some of our markets and I think cause new lease pricing to moderate a little quicker than we would have otherwise thought just because these merchant builders are a little bit of urgency to Get stabilized sooner rather than later. And so I think that The performance, we think likely probably continues at some level, probably for the next couple of quarters or so. Speaker 200:24:10As Tim mentioned, we don't given the strong absorption that we see happening overall across our markets, it's hard to see it getting Any worse than what we kind of saw in Q3? And then we're encouraged by the fact that October performance In the normal seasonal pattern that we see from Q3 to Q4, frankly, is better than what we have seen in the past. So I mean, there are reasons for us to feel that we think that the environment we find ourselves in right now is likely to sort of continue for a while, Probably through, I'm guessing through Q2 of next year. By the time we get to Q3 of next year, comparing against this year, we think that The things start to feel a lot more comfortable. Now we'll have the compounding effect of Q3, Q4, Q1 that we'll I have to carry and kind of work through revenue performance through most of next year, but we think that there's arguments to be made that the supply demand dynamics is That we see taking place right now are likely just sort of hang where they are for the next few quarters, but not get materially weaker. Speaker 900:25:23Got it. And so I mean, I guess that kind of went to my second question was it sounds like you think demand remains April from here, which has actually been fairly strong, I think even accelerated the last couple of quarters and helped absorb some of this supply. I mean, is it fair to say that you think you get some level of market rent growth positive next year, despite kind of this cumulative impact Based on your thoughts on how demand shakes out? Speaker 200:25:51Yes, we do. I mean, assuming that the economy continues to hold up as it is, We continue to capture the sort of tailwind that we're seeing with low resident turnover, lower levels of move outs to buy homes. Collections continue to remain strong. I mean, there's just as I've said for many, many years, to me, at the end of the day, what really drives Performance over the long haul is the demand side of the business and that can in these that's why we've always focused our capital in the way we have across these Sunbelt markets, Believing that the demand dynamic continues to provide a foundation for how we like to create value and drive performance over a long period of time. We have to deal with this periodic supply pressure that comes from time to time and that's kind of what we're dealing with right now. Speaker 200:26:43But Because of the demand side being as strong as it is, the absorption continuing to be where it is. And because of the approach that we take with We think there are things that we can do to help sort of mitigate some of the supply pressure that you otherwise might think would If you look at just overall market dynamics, we think that when you put the portfolio together the way that we have that we can push back against some of these supply pressures When they do occur from time to time. So I think that we think that as we get into the back half of next year That we probably do start to see supply levels start to moderate And some of the developer pressure start to moderate. We probably do start to see market rent growth turn positive on the new lease Pricing and then as Tim mentioned, we continue to get pretty solid performance on our renewal practices. And if you go back over a number of years, you'll see that our renewal How we think about renewal pricing and we continue to believe that that will remain a tailwind for us over the coming year. Speaker 900:28:00Thanks, Eric. Appreciate the detailed response. Operator00:28:05Thank you. We'll take our next question from Eric Wolf with Citi. Your line is now open. Speaker 800:28:11Hey, thanks. I just want to follow-up on that answer there. You said that you don't expect New lease rates to get much worse from here. So I don't want to put words in your mouth, but does that mean you're sort of expecting like negative 4% to negative 5% new lease For the foreseeable future and should that continue through Q2 next year because it sounds like you're saying that with the dynamic you're seeing today should continue to 2Q and then probably get Speaker 400:28:38Hey Eric, this is Tim. I mean, I do think new lease rates probably hang in this Range for a few months. Obviously, typically Q4 and Q1 are kind of the weakest in terms of seasonality and the amount Traffic and all that. But I do think we will see some level of and Eric hit on this a little bit, some level of normal seasonality as we get into later into 2024. So think as we get into March April in the spring and higher traffic volumes that we'll see some acceleration in those new lease rates. Speaker 400:29:10And I don't expect Much change in renewals. We've been pretty consistent with our renewal rates going back for several years. We think those will hold up We think the turnover rate remains low, which provides the renewal side with more of that blend when you think about blend of lease over lease rates. So I think we're going to be in this range for a few months, but I don't think it sticks like that for the next 12 months. Speaker 200:29:35And we typically see the gap between new lease pricing or renewal pricing sort of gap out the most in Q4 and New lease pricing or renewal pricing sort of gap out the most in Q4 and Q1 and then it tends to narrow in Q2 and Q3. And think that that seasonal pattern is likely to repeat next year. Speaker 800:29:50Got it. That's really helpful. And I guess that that's my second question, which is that, I think you said there's been about 500 to 600 basis points of spread on renewals versus new leases. There's nothing That would sort of change that just based on the supply dynamic today. It's not going to get wider or necessarily thinner. Speaker 800:30:08It's just it's probably going to be about the same spread as typical. Speaker 400:30:12Yes. And to clarify or put some color on that, that 500 spread for us typically is what it is in the summer and Q2, Q3 range with renewals remaining pretty consistent. Historically Q4, Q1, Q4 is usually the biggest. It's usually in the 900 basis point range kind of similar to what we're seeing right now and then squeeze down to call it 700 to 800 in Q1 and then get more in that 500 basis point range during the heart of the spring and summer. So don't really see that's the normal seasonality. Speaker 400:30:44We would expect that To recurring some level. Speaker 800:30:49Got it. Okay. Thank you. Operator00:30:53Thank you. We'll take our next Question from Sandy Feldman with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Speaker 1000:31:00Great. Thank you and thanks for taking my question. So It sounds like you could see a ramp up here in acquisition activity, investment activity. You had mentioned the Phoenix acquisition at 3 $317,000 per unit, you also talked about 5.5% yield. As you think about deals, I mean, what are the metrics that you care about? Speaker 1000:31:20Is it price per unit? Is it AFFO accretion? Is it NAV accretion? And then how do you think about your cost of capital And the required spread to your cost of capital to put money to work. Speaker 200:31:35Well, I mean, the thing that we really Prioritized more than anything is sort of what sort of stabilized yield do we think we will get From making a new investment and how does that compare to our current cost of capital. And as you think about cost of capital today and look at sort of where we are Able to put our balance sheet to work at call it 5.5%. You think about Longer perspective on cost of capital being a function of dividend yield and sort of FFO yield, core FFO yield, You blend that, you're still in that kind of 5.5% range. And so, as we think about this deal that we did in Phoenix, I mean, the opportunity To put a brand new asset on the balance sheet that is going to be, we think a great performer for us long term Long term to put that on the balance sheet initially, even though it's still in sort of its Initial lease up to be able to bring it on the balance sheet at basically right at our cost of capital with full understanding that we've got Real operating upside opportunity that we can capture over the 1st year or so from our revenue management practices and some of the cost efficiencies that we'll bring to bear on an operation that doesn't have those advantages, coupled with the fact is, as Brad mentioned, this property It's less than half a month from one of our other properties and we will over the next year or so pod what we refer to Pod this property with the other and drive down some of the operating costs. Speaker 200:33:17We think over the next couple of years that we'll see that yield meaningfully go up from there. Yes, we think at this point that makes a lot of sense to us. And I think that we are going to continue to we think see more of that Should emerge over the coming year. Speaker 1100:33:36Okay. Speaker 1000:33:36And can you quantify how much you think the yield goes up with the revenue management and Putting the MAA touch on these assets? Speaker 200:33:45I'd probably put it at least 100 basis point margin Expansion to probably 200, somewhere in that range. Speaker 1000:33:55Okay. And then secondly, you may have answered it With Eric's question, but just thinking about October, I mean, what can you tell us about rents, blended rents, new renewal rents so far in October? Speaker 400:34:09Yes, this is Tim. So for October, as I mentioned, and the blended is right around 0. We're at about Negative 5.3% on new lease and 4.4% on renewals as we stand right now. Speaker 1000:34:23Okay. And then finally for me, Atlanta specifically, can you talk about I mean you had kind of below average Revenue growth there. Is that pressure on rents from supply? Or is that more about some of the issues you mentioned in the past fraud, Some of the other kind of unique factors to that market. Speaker 400:34:44Yes. I mean, there's certainly a few unique factors in Atlanta and what you mentioned as part of that. I mean pricing is a little bit weak. It's a little bit lower than I would say some of our portfolio average. They are getting some of the supply pressure that a lot of the other markets are getting as well. Speaker 400:35:04I think what we're seeing in Atlanta is a little more in the occupancy side. Though it has it is slowly improving, we saw a 40 basis point Increase in occupancy from Q2 to Q3 in Atlanta, but there are a couple of unique circumstances that you mentioned. 1, Earlier in the year, we talked about between the winter storm and a fire we had in Atlanta, we had a lot of down units that came on sort of late first, early second. So We were kind of working through that from an occupancy standpoint. And then as been well documented by a lot of people, some of the fraud Concerns in Atlanta and I think that's starting to work itself through as well. Speaker 400:35:42The courts are becoming A little more aggressive on that and we've seen the number of skip evicts that we've had in that market is about double from where it was last year. So Craig, some pressure in the short term on occupancy, but certainly in longer term in terms of revenue quality and ability to pay is much better. And we've also been able through In house training we've done and really focus on fraud income. We've seen the number of people coming into the door, we think is With that scenario is much less. We've seen our number of age balances we have in terms of residences way down And just the amount of delinquency we have in Atlanta is way down. Speaker 400:36:21So some unique circumstances there for sure, but we think it's headed in the right direction. Speaker 1000:36:28Okay. And as you think about those factors, does it give you pause on it being your largest market? I mean over the long term, is that a reason you'd want to shrink there or grow in other markets more? Speaker 200:36:39I mean, we continue to look at all the markets and we probably over the next Number of years, you'll probably see us continue to cycle some capital out of the Atlanta. It's going to be more driven by asset specific decisions, Property specific decisions, I mean, we continue to like the Atlanta market long term, a lot of great Job growth drivers and demand drivers in that market, it's like all the other markets. They will go through periods of supply pressure from time to time, but The demand dynamics there are pretty healthy. And I think some of the things that Tim was alluding to that were Unique to Atlanta, really are attributable to some of the practices that were adopted The COVID years and the court systems there got really sort of backlogged, if you will. And it's just taken longer for that Market to sort of work back to normal. Speaker 200:37:42We see it happening, but we like the Atlanta market long term for sure. Okay. Speaker 1000:37:49All right. Thank you. Operator00:37:53Thank you. We will take our next question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Speaker 1100:38:00Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to get Your loss to lease, if you're able to quantify that? Speaker 400:38:10Yes, Nick, this is Tim. So a Couple of comments there. If you look at sort of where we are right now and what's going to earn in or be baked in for next year with pricing today plus The pricing that we're assuming for Q4 probably have 1 to 1.25 of baked in or earned in, if you will, that will flow into 2024. The thing about loss to lease and just in terms of kind of where rents are right now, it's probably about a negative one loss to lease Given what we've seen with new lease rates right now, that's where I would peg it to sit here in October. Speaker 200:38:46Okay. And that's very helpful. Speaker 1100:38:48Just one other question. Going back to the acquisition and the 5.5% initial Stable yield. Is that number impacted by concessions reducing that yield? I don't know if there's any way Speaker 1200:39:02you can quantify like Whether Speaker 1100:39:04that would be a higher yield absent if there's concessions? Speaker 300:39:09Yes. Hi, Nick. This is Brad. Yes, I mean think that's inclusive of concessions. The property is in lease up and it's offering about a month to 6 weeks Generally on new leases and so that includes the impact of that. Speaker 300:39:24So that would be your net effective rent. So assuming that We get the stabilization, we would see some strengthening there and the use of concessions would generally burn off On renewals, we're not using generally using concessions on these properties. We would also see some expansion in that yield at that point. Speaker 1300:39:44Okay, great. Thanks. Operator00:39:48Thank you. We will take our next question from John Kim with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 1400:39:54Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about the impact of rising interest rates on leasing demands and landlord behavior. I know you commented that the demand has been strong, you had an occupancy pickup in the Q3. So when you discuss New lease growth rates of minus 4% in September and minus 5.3% in October, it seems to coincide with the interest rate environment. Speaker 1400:40:17Just wanted to get your comment on that. Speaker 200:40:21I think what we think is at play here is that in this environment With a lot of these merchant built properties currently in lease up, the lease up environment And the financing environment that they are facing today is most assuredly not what they contemplated when they started construction 2 years ago. And as a consequence of that, I believe that what is happening is that some of the Merchant built product is in a rush to get stabilized As quickly as possible, preferably before we even get into the holiday season, which is why I think there was a lot of noticeable Shift that took place in August September because it's probably they're probably late in their timeline In terms of what they forecast and what they underwrote and certainly they are going to face a exit Or refinancing that is going to be different than what was contemplated. And while there may have been some early hope That we would start to see moderation in interest rates by this time. I think that hope is now gone. And we likely are in this rate environment we are in today for quite some time moving forward. Speaker 200:41:45So I just think that all that is combined to create We knew in a highly supply or high supply environment that lease up pressure exists, but I think it's just been a little bit Because of what's going on with the interest rate environment and therefore it's manifesting itself in more competitive Pricing practices in an effort to attract new residents and leasing traffic. And So I think that that's what's at play here. I think that once we sort of work through this scenario that As we've been talking about the supply pressure starts to get a lot better, meaningfully better and we think that We just got to put our head down and operate through this for the next couple of quarters or so. Speaker 1400:42:34Can you comment on your turnover rate, which Declined 40 basis points and remains near historically low level. And how you We're able to maintain this turnover rate with all the new supply that's coming online and if you're contemplating offering concessions on renewal. Speaker 400:42:56Hey, John, this is Tim. I mean, as far as the turnover, I mean, we expected we certainly didn't really expect Those are far and away our 2 biggest reasons for move outs and as expected the move outs by house is way down. So we don't see that Again, given the interest rate environment, we don't see that changing anytime near term. Some of the other things that drove move out or turnover up This year are down. So I would expect as we get into 2024 that there's not a lot of change in terms of turnover, certainly no significant Increase in turnover. Speaker 400:43:38And so I think that serves us well on the renewal side. But certainly we wouldn't Need to look into anything more than we're doing now on that renewal. Speaker 200:43:46Encouragingly, I'll add in the Q3, the move outs that we had that occurred due to rent increase were half of what they were in Q3 of last year. So, what's really at play here on the Speaker 1400:44:06Great. Thank you, everyone. And Al, congratulations on your retirement. Speaker 600:44:11Yes. Thank you, John. I'm excited about the prospects of the future, but also excited about what the company is going to do in the next few quarters and years as well. Speaker 1400:44:20You leave the company in good hands. Thank you. Speaker 400:44:23Thank you. Operator00:44:25Thank you. We'll take our next question from Josh Darian with Bank of America. Speaker 1100:44:33Hey, guys. Just wanted to follow-up on a comment you made. It sounded like you're a bit I guess, what is most surprising to you? Speaker 200:44:49Well, we're not surprised by the competition from new supply. What we're surprised by is How aggressive some of the merchant developers have gotten in an effort To expedite their lease up sooner than as getting stabilized as quick as possible. And as I've commented on, We think that that is related to what is clearly now an indication relating to interest rate trends. And I mean, we saw The behavior with lease ops and concessions began to shift a bit in August September as the 10 year treasury really started moving up to 5%, close to 5%. And I think it just triggered The urgency and developers that have lease up projects on their books to get Stabilize and get out of it or get it as soon as possible. Speaker 200:45:50And so I think that that's what's at play here and that and so the That was probably the only thing that or it was the only thing I can point to that was a bit of a surprise. We Expected demand to remain solid and it is, as Tim alluded to, our absorption numbers across our markets are really strong. We've not seen any moderation on the demand side of the curve. We knew the supply picture. I mean, there was no secret about that. Speaker 200:46:22We've seen that coming for The past year or so, so no real surprises there. It's really just the behavior Some of these lease up projects and the motivation that they have to get leased up sooner rather than later. And I think that that goes right back to what I just mentioned is that the recognition that the high rate environment we find ourselves in, interest environment is likely to be with us for a while. And I think it just prompted some actions on behalf of developers to get Drop pricing, introduce more concessions, higher concessions, drive down net effective pricing quicker, which affected market dynamics to some degree. Speaker 1100:47:04Okay. Appreciate that color. And maybe just a follow-up on that. If I think through it, Pretty sure peak deliveries are still in 2024. Is your assumption that this aggressive behavior kind of continues? Speaker 1100:47:20Because I mean, I've assumed that there's more properties coming online and the interest rates keep going higher, they would want to kind of lease up as quick as possible. Do you think this competition gets more, I guess heavier in 2024? Maybe that's my question there. Speaker 200:47:42It's hard to say for sure, but the short answer is no, I don't think so. I think that Where there is an urgency that's come into the equation and then a higher level of urgency by developers, I think to some degree, a lot of it may be time to some calendar year end pressures that they may be thinking about. I think that perhaps is at play here a bit. When you think about supply levels being where they are, we don't It's of course, it varies a lot by market. And we think That the supply levels and deliveries that are taking place are likely to be fairly consistent to where they are right now for the next Couple of quarters or so, call it through Q2 of next year. Speaker 200:48:32And so it's hard to pinpoint it exactly, but I don't think that there is material Change in the supply dynamic that we're seeing today. I don't think there's a material change in the demand dynamic that we see taking place Today, I think and I think that the only change was, if you will, just that lease up pressure that I think some of the developers were feeling Given what's going on with the interest rates and I think perhaps that there is some at least some of them that are facing some calendar year end obligations that they're Speaker 300:49:11I'll add color in 2 ways to that. Number 1 is just remember that Developers are incentivized to lease up and sell quickly. Their IRRs are impacted. Obviously, the sooner they sell an asset and I think partly what's happened on these projects is according to our math, generally they have to be about 90% occupied To cover their current debt service coverage through their cash flow without having to go back to their partner and ask for capital. So to Eric's point, I think once The 10 year hit that psychological level of 4%. Speaker 300:49:45It was a realization that sales values are going to be impacted. So the sooner they could get to that point, the better for their IRR calculations and also for the waterfalls In those projects, so I think that's driving to Eric's point by the end of the year and a quicker process of leasing up to cover debt service coverage and get to the point where they could transact The asset in order to drive higher waterfall promotes to themselves. Speaker 1100:50:15Got it. Thanks guys. Operator00:50:19Thank you. And we will take our next question from John Pawlowski with Green Street. Your line is open. Speaker 1300:50:26Thanks. Good morning. Clay, do you expect any notable acceleration or deceleration in the major expense categories throughout the next year? Speaker 500:50:37We do expect that there will be some moderation in operating expenses going into next year. You saw in the report that Personnel costs and repair and maintenance costs were higher than what we had expected or projected, but we still do Those to continue to moderate as we move into next year. Speaker 1300:50:59Roughly 6% property tax Growth rate, do you expect it to kind of bounce around this level for the foreseeable future? Speaker 500:51:06Probably that will probably moderate a little bit as well As this current environment that we're seeing with high prices, evaluations, as those begin to kind of taper down, That should work its way through the real estate taxes. And so we expect to see some moderation there as well. How fast that will play through, that remains to be seen. Speaker 1300:51:28Okay. Last one for me, Tim. Hoping you can give us a sense for what new lease declines in October looked like in a few of the most heavily supplied I'm just curious what the kind of the bottom tranche of Speaker 1500:51:40the portfolio looks like there. Speaker 400:51:44New lease range for October, is that what you're Speaker 1300:51:48for the most heavily supplied markets. Speaker 400:51:50Yes. I mean, Austin continues to be the worst We've talked about that for a while. Austin is in the high negative single digits and is our worst market in terms of new lease pricing. Like I said, same store level, it's right around 3 or right around 5 for October. Tampa is a little bit higher, But Austin is the one that kind of stands out above all. Speaker 1400:52:20Okay. Thank you for your time. Speaker 700:52:22Sure. Thank Operator00:52:25you. We'll take our next question from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 1600:52:32Hey, good morning, everybody. It seems like the message here is that there are a few weak quarters ahead, but that things are expected to get better in the back half of 24. I'm just curious if you can give more color around what gives you confidence in that timing. You do obviously have supply peaking in mid-twenty 24, but it does Elevated into 2025 and then the lease ups don't end when the deliveries fall off. So curious for any thoughts there. Speaker 200:52:56Well, I think that what I would point to Brad is this is Eric is just we continue to see a lot of support on the demand side And the absorption rates that we see taking place remain very healthy. And so I think that All the factors that are sort of supporting the demand side of the business, the employment markets, low turnover, solid collections performance, wage growth, All those factors, continued net positive migration trends, all those factors continue to look Solid and then there's nothing that we can see suggesting that moderation is set to occur in that regard. I think that as we sort of work through the current pipeline of deliveries That some of the behavior that is occurring right now likely starts to moderate A little bit as some of the more stressed lease ups Get sort of work through the system and in some of the developers under the most pressure, if you will, Sort of get work through the system and then of course as we start to get into the back half of next Sure. We've been through a complete cycle, if you will, with this pressure. And the comparisons to the prior leases and the comparisons to the prior year start to get a little bit More tolerable, if you will. Speaker 200:54:38So I just think that we feel like that we've got, call it, 2 or 3 quarters Of this environment, you've got seasonal patterns that play here too. You recognize that Q3 Is the point of the year where moderation has typically always occurred anyway from a leasing perspective and then It sort of works through Q4 and then by Q1, particularly in February and particularly in March, things start to pick up and then you get into the spring and the summer And the absorption rate picks up even more. So I think that to have what we have now happening in 1 of the weaker from a seasonality perspective and early on in the delivery sort of pressure pipeline, I think that it gives us some reason to and comfort that by the time we get to the back half of next The conditions start to change a bit. Speaker 1100:55:41Okay. That's all I have. Thanks. Operator00:55:45Thank you. We'll take our next question from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Speaker 1700:55:52Hey, thanks for taking my question. So you guys discussed the rising labor cost a little bit and maybe that's especially with 3rd party vendors. So just thinking about that, it'd be fair to presume that Your markets are strong economically, which would bode well for demand. So thinking about the big picture, Would it be fair to say that demand and rent growth are healthy enough to offset the rising labor costs? Speaker 300:56:21Well, I mean, Speaker 200:56:26the demand is strong, but In terms of revenue growth, I mean, the problem we're facing is or the challenge we're facing is just Lot of supply in the pipeline right now and that's what's really that sort of supply demand dynamic is not as strong as it had been. And so that's what's really creating this Spread if you will between sort of rent growth and what we see taking place with growth rate in labor costs. As Clay alludes to, we are seeing at least with our own sort of hiring Practices that we are starting to see a little moderation begin to show up. And we do think as we get into and as Brad alluded to, we're seeing a lot of evidence out there with some of the People we talked to various vendors and architects and others we work with on the development side that the construction Workforce is starting to have a little bit more availability and is not quite as much in demand. And that to some degree affects Our labor costs as it relates to our maintenance operations. Speaker 200:57:47So we do think as Clay alluded to, we do think that We likely are looking at some moderation in labor cost from the growth rate that we're seeing today. We Some moderation on that as we get into next year. Speaker 1700:58:05Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe sticking with demand, You've referenced that demand is really the driving force a lot and supply comes and goes. Could you just maybe rank How like historically, how strong demand is and the pace of demand in this year maybe heading into the year end Compared to previous years in cycles? Speaker 200:58:29Well, I mean, this is Tim, you want to anything to add? Speaker 1100:58:32Yes. I mean, I Speaker 400:58:33was just going to make one point at a high level. We've done some research and with some of our 3rd party data, if you go back the last 5 years or so, or really, really last 5 or 10 years, the highest supply markets, Which tend to have been in the Sunbelt have also been some of the best rent growth markets and that's because of that demand side. We have historically over the long term demand has more than offset the supply picture. Now we have an elevated supply picture right now that's Put that out of the balance at least for a temporary time. But as we get into late next year and over the long term, historically it's shown and we believe continue to show and Speaker 200:59:21I can't tell you compared to Sort of the migration numbers that we saw kind of throw the COVID years out, which were a bit unusual, but the level of net In migration that we see happening right now is still higher than it was historically, higher than it was Before COVID. And so these Sunbelt markets continue to offer a lot of Things that employers are looking that component of the demand cycle, I think is better than it historically has been. I will also tell you that the move outs to home buying and the tailwind that we're getting on demand as a consequence of that Have never been this strong either. And so there are some unique variables out there right now They continue to support demand at a level that is stronger than what we've seen historically. Speaker 1701:00:24Okay. I appreciate the color. And maybe if I could just sneak one more in. Going back to Atlanta, do you mention that you're recapturing some of the units due to The fraud issues or would you be able to provide a timeline on when you would recapture those units? Thanks. Speaker 401:00:41Well, I mean, it's an ongoing process. I think what we've seen is that for a period from COVID Up until really early this year, the counties in Atlanta specifically have been really slow to act or take any action whatsoever. And So we've seen that start to accelerate. It's Fulton County is still a little bit of an issue, but Cobb and the Cavs have increased So we see it starting to happen. But and I think we've gotten through a lot of it, but it'll over the next few months. Speaker 401:01:14And I think as we get into later next year, we're back into more of a normal situation in terms of Atlanta. Mike said, we've done a lot of work to make sure we're not exacerbating the problem by letting any potential fraudulent people coming in the front door. Speaker 1701:01:34All right. Great. Thank you very much. Operator01:01:38Thank you. We'll take our Question from Rich Anderson with Wedbush. Your line is open. Speaker 1501:01:43Hey, thanks. Good morning. So getting back to the Acquisition strategy, I think one of the problems we've faced over the years is they They bought when they should be selling and they've sold when they should be buying. So what you're saying is interesting. I'm wondering Speed by which this strategy can unfold, you talked about the implied cost of your equity. Speaker 1501:02:10If Your balance sheet is obviously very attractive, but perhaps inefficiently so at 3.4 times debt. That leaves $1,300,000,000 or so of more debt you can put on just to get to 4.5 times. So maybe that's Now I think in the rate environment, but I'm just curious, you've got scenarios delivered to finance this. Could this be Some sizable activity at this point? Or do you think it will be more like one off asset by asset, like non needle moving Speaker 201:02:46Well, we hope it will be needle moving. We're optimistic, Rich, That there will be certainly more buying opportunity emerging over the coming year. Now having said that, There are a lot of people with a lot of dry powder right now. And I think multifamily real estate is still viewed as an attractive Commercial real estate asset class and everybody understands the need for housing in the country and I think there's a more healthy appreciation for these Sunbelt For the Sunbelt markets perhaps there has been in a number of years. And so we think that While the opportunity to buy in the transaction market gets better, we think that it will also potentially be pretty competitive. Speaker 201:03:37We would hope Going back to the last recession, 2008, 2009, the 2 years coming out of that Downturn, we bought 7,000 apartments over a 2 year period of time. I think I don't see that getting repeated, But we do think that the opportunity set will be more plentiful, for us going over the coming year than it has been certainly for the last 4 or 5 years, in this higher rate environment, some of the private equity players are not going to be quite as be able to be quite as aggressive As they have been, there's more of a sort of an equilibrium in terms of cost of capital between us And the private guys given their higher use of debt. And you're right, I mean, we've got a lot of capacity on the balance sheet. We're anxious to put it to work, But we're going to remain disciplined about it. But we do think that the opportunities definitely start to pick up and we're hopeful it will be insignificant. Speaker 1501:04:38Okay, great. And then second question, maybe to Tim or others, but on the October spread between new and renewal, Pendulum on these sort of growth numbers always swings too wide. I don't think anyone expected 20% plus type of rent growth a year ago, and maybe this is surprising to the downside. When you think about the first half of twenty twenty four, should we be conditioning All of us investors and analysts for negative blended number at least for the first half of the year when you From this point forward, you're not giving guidance, but is there a range of sort of surprise factor that could bring that into Speaker 401:05:350 is what we have dialed in for Q4 in terms of our forecast, which as we said, is kind of where we Sit right now for October and Q1 typically compared to Q4, if I'm thinking about sort of normal environment or historical environment It's usually pretty similar. I do think you could see those numbers move a little bit on the margins up or down in terms of blended going Slightly negative or slightly positive. I do think as we get as I mentioned earlier, as we get into the spring, I think you start to see Some normal seasonality in terms of new lease rates are not going to jump up to positive 3 or 4 all of a sudden. I think you'll see Some acceleration. So there'll be some bands, but I don't think it's widely different than what you talked about because we do think renewals remain pretty consistent. Speaker 401:06:23And with where we see turnover going, that And with where we see turnover going, that'll blend in as a little bit bigger factor in terms of overall blended rate as compared to new leases. Speaker 1501:06:34Good enough. And congrats, Al. Good luck to Speaker 601:06:38you. Thanks, Rich. I appreciate it, man. Operator01:06:43We'll take our next question from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Speaker 1201:06:49A quick question on the transaction I think you mentioned that you saw cap rates increase by 15 basis points in the 3rd quarter. Given where interest rates have gone and given where public market I would expect that to maybe expand a bit more. So, where do you think cap rates go the next few quarters as you seek to deploy more capital here? Speaker 301:07:10Yes. Hey, Anthony, this is Brad. I mean, I think a couple of things. One, keep in mind that what we saw in the Q3 It was very limited in terms of transaction. Certainly, as I mentioned in my comments, we saw activity marketing activity pick up a bit early in the Q3, but A lot of that has not closed at this point, really just a handful of projects closed and we saw those cap rates come up a little bit. Speaker 301:07:36But to Eric's point earlier about The availability of capital for well located properties in good markets, we continue to see strong bid sheets And so, and we're still seeing cap rates in the low 5% range for those well located assets. I would expect to see pressure on cap rates, but really it's going to depend on how that liquidity shows up for those assets To bid on them, but certainly given the severe movement that we've seen in the 10 year and agency debt today In the 6.5%, 6.75% range, we would expect some upward movement in cap rates, but to what degree is going to depend on The liquidity picture, the fundamentals of the properties, locations, things of that nature, so it's really hard to say where that goes from here. Speaker 1401:08:31Got it. Speaker 1201:08:32Thanks. And maybe on turnover and renewal rent growth. How aware are tenants typically of a high to flat growth environment like this? And are you Seeing tenants come to you and ask for rent declines, seeing tenants move out to newer buildings. And is that a risk Next year as more of these apartments are delivered in your market? Speaker 401:08:53Well, I think certainly they're aware. I mean the transparency now With what's on websites and social media and everything else and all the different marketing avenues and advertising, platforms that That certainly they're aware and you can see down to a unit level a lot of times on websites, but I don't think that's necessarily a new phenomenon. It's been that way Now at least for the last couple of years. So I think there's a component on the renewal side of just You've hopefully provided them with good resident service. They're happy where they're living. Speaker 401:09:25They're happy with the manager and their owner. And there are some friction costs involved as well. It's a pain to move, it's expensive to move. So there's some things from a customer service and Friction call standpoint that are meaningful. But overall, as we talked about, I don't see turnover changing much from where it is now. Speaker 401:09:45I don't think that becomes any more of an outsized pressure than it has been. All right. Thank you. Operator01:09:55Thank you. We'll take our next question from Wes Golladay with Baird. Your line is open. Speaker 1801:10:02Hey, good morning, everyone. I have a question on the capital allocation front. I mean, is there a point where your buybacks have maybe become a top priority when you consider Where development yields are penciling in and acquisition yields, I mean, it seems pretty thin, whereas a 10 year trading and typically acquisition cap rates have been north of 100, 200 basis points over the 10 year. So, it seems like it gives them the upward pressure in the private market. Speaker 201:10:28Well, again, as we touched on a little earlier, I mean, we think that the opportunity to put capital to work As we did with the Phoenix acquisition, is the appropriate and best Sort of value creation from a long term perspective, particularly given where the initial yield is And the opportunity we have, we think over the next couple of years to really improve that yield meaningfully. So we continue You should believe that remaining patient with the balance sheet capacity we have and looking for what we are expecting to The even more compelling opportunities as we move forward, with some of the distress in the market from some of these merchant builders That the longer term value creation associated with some of these acquisitions is going to make A lot more sense. As Brad mentioned, we do have an amount of opportunity teeing up on the development front, But we control the timing on that and we do think that we're going to see some moderation begin to take place with the construction cost And we think the yields there are going to get better. And so we've and as I say, we've got the luxury of Making controlling the timing of when we elect to pull the trigger on those projects. Speaker 201:12:01And of course, these projects, if we were to start anything next year, I mean, it's going to deliver in 'twenty six and 'twenty seven and it's going to be, we think, a much healthier leasing environment at that point. We're going to be patient, but we think that some of the external growth opportunities that we have in front of us over the coming couple of years Is the best sort of value creation opportunity that we have in terms of How to put this balance sheet capacity to work? Speaker 1801:12:33And a follow-up to that, are you seeing any portfolios where maybe some of the aggregated assets and Maybe debt was underwritten at a very low cap rate environment or maybe a lot of floating rate debt. Is there anything kind of penciled in that fits your quality criteria? Speaker 201:12:47Well, we pay attention to those opportunities when they come out. More often than not, what we have found is the asset Quality is not really what we want to do and not of interest to us. And a lot of the aggressive buying and high leverage buying that took place over the last And just we haven't found it to be particularly compelling to add to our balance sheet. Speaker 1801:13:28Great. Thanks for taking the questions and congrats, Sal. Speaker 601:13:31Thank you, Wes. I appreciate that, Matt. Operator01:13:35Thank you. We'll take our next question from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 1901:13:41Hi. Just one really quick one. Can you remind us what's causing higher fraud in certain markets? Is it demographic shift technology and then what are mitigation strategies? Speaker 401:13:55I mean, it's difficult to say. I think what we have seen is Certainly since COVID and post COVID that the actions taken by the courts and the judges and that sort of thing has become a little bit more lax. So that Frankly, it creates a little bit more opportunity for bad actors. What we've done in turn is We've familiarized ourselves and have some experts, so to speak, within our team that We're good at identifying that sort of thing. And frankly, what happens is if you get if you start to get a reputation, if you will, that these guys Are good at catching it and the people trying to come in the front door that way tend to stay away. Speaker 401:14:40So it starts To solve itself from some standpoint, if you can be good at detecting it and good at preventing it. Speaker 201:14:48Linda, I'd add a couple of things to that. I do think that New technology that's available to people today has probably fostered some opportunity and techniques And certain capabilities in this area that are different Certainly, than where they were years ago and probably a little bit harder to detect. And we've made some modifications in our Processes and how we screen that is now much more effective at that. And the other thing I would just comment on that you alluded to It's important to recognize that where we have seen this, it's really been pretty isolated. We've called out Atlanta And frankly, just a few properties in the Atlanta market where we saw this in a pickup in a noticeable way. Speaker 201:15:40I wouldn't suggest that this is a pervasive practice that we see happening across the And a lot of different markets, it was really more of an isolated scenario. It happens to be Atlanta where we have a lot, but and as Tim mentioned, We see the trends changing there as a consequence and improving as a consequence of some of the changes that we've made in our approval processes. Speaker 1901:16:07Got it. Thanks for the color. Operator01:16:11We have no further questions. I will turn The call over to MMA for closing remarks. Speaker 201:16:17We appreciate everyone joining us this morning, and I'm sure we'll see most of you at NAREIT in a couple of weeks. Thank you. Operator01:16:27This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallMid-America Apartment Communities Q3 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) Mid-America Apartment Communities Earnings HeadlinesWhat is Wedbush's Estimate for MAA Q2 Earnings?May 8 at 1:47 AM | americanbankingnews.comBank of America Securities Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Mid-America Apartment (MAA)May 7 at 6:14 PM | theglobeandmail.comThink NVDA’s run was epic? You ain’t seen nothin’ yetAsk most investors and they’ll probably tell you Nvidia is the undisputed AI stock of the decade. In 2023, it surged 239%. And in 2024, it soared another 171% on the year… But what if I told you there was a way to target those types of “peak Nvidia” profit opportunities in 24 hours or less?May 8, 2025 | Timothy Sykes (Ad)Goldman Sachs Says Bet on Sun Belt REITs: 3 Top Picks Pay Large, Dependable DividendsMay 3, 2025 | 247wallst.comQ1 2025 Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc Earnings CallMay 2, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comMid-america Apartment Communities, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 ResultsMay 1, 2025 | finanznachrichten.deSee More Mid-America Apartment Communities Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Mid-America Apartment Communities? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Mid-America Apartment Communities and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Mid-America Apartment CommunitiesMid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA) is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the operation, acquisition, and development of apartment communities. It operates through the Same Store and Non-Same Store segments. The Same Store Communities segment represents those apartment communities that have been owned and stabilized for at least 12 months as of the first day of the calendar year. The Non-Same Store segment includes recent acquisitions, communities in development or lease-up. 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There are 20 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, the company will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, October 26, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Adam Shafer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments. Speaker 100:00:30Thank you, Britney, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schafer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team also participating on the call with me this morning are Eric Bolton, Tim Argo, Al Campbell, Rob Del Priore, Joe Fracchia, Brad Hill and Clay Holder. Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. Speaker 100:00:59We encourage you to refer to the forward looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results. During this call, we will also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures As well as reconciliations of the differences between non GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. Speaker 100:01:39After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer I will now turn the call over to Eric. Speaker 200:01:46Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. MAA's 3rd quarter FFO performance was ahead of our expectations as the demand side of our business continues to capture good leasing traffic, low resident turnover, Positive migration trends and strong collections performance. During the quarter, we did see a higher impact from new supply deliveries Several of our larger markets with the resulting impact showing up in pricing associated with new move in residents. While we continue to believe that MAA's unique market diversification, a more affordable rent structure and an Deliveries in several markets will continue to weigh on rent growth associated with new resident move ins for the next few quarters. Encouragingly, there is now clear evidence emerging that new supply deliveries are poised to meaningfully drop late next year into 2025. Speaker 200:02:49We have certainly worked through these supply cycles before And continue to believe that MAA's more extensive market and submarket diversification, new AI and technology tools and an experienced operating team has us in a position to outperform our markets. As we have discussed previously, One of the benefits that typically emerges from a heavy supply cycle, particularly one that is characterized by higher interest rates Is an increasing volume of acquisition and external growth opportunities. We have seen a shift take place with seller and developer pricing expectations. The more challenging lease up conditions coupled with higher interest rates that are likely to be with us for a while are generating more buying opportunities. As Brad will recap in his comments, the property acquisition we completed after quarter end is a good example and where we expect more opportunities to emerge, specifically a recently completed new development that is still in initial lease up with seller requirements to close within a short timeframe. Speaker 200:03:58Before turning the call over to the team to provide details surrounding our performance and market conditions, Let me summarize what I believe are the 4 key takeaways in our report. 1st, demand across our markets remain solid and supportive of Steady absorption of the new supply. Secondly, current high levels of new supply coupled with developer pressures related to a higher interest rate environment Will cause the leasing environment to remain competitive for the next few quarters with new supply pressures expected to then decline. We expect to see an increasing number of compelling external growth opportunities in 2024. And 4th, MAA's long track record of performance And experience in working with markets with higher demand and supply dynamics now further supported by a stronger technology platform and a strong balance Speaker 300:05:00Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. As anticipated, we saw an increase in for sale marketing activity emerge early in the Q3. And while closed transactions are limited in number, we continue to see some upward pressure on cap rates on projects we track, with cap rates up by roughly 15 basis points from 2Q. As indicated in our earnings release, we recently closed The Phoenix market that we began pursuing early in 3Q. MAA Central Avenue is a 323 Unit Mid Rise The property is in its initial lease up And the seller was under some pressure to close on the sale by a specific date. Speaker 300:05:46So counterparty risk considerations were paramount to the seller. Our familiarity with the market, speed of execution and balance sheet strength that supports an ability to close all cash With no financing contingencies were all aspects of our offer that were very important to the seller. Our pricing of approximately $317,000 per unit is substantially below current replacement costs and is expected to provide An initial stabilized NOI yield of 5.5 percent. With the property nearing stabilization, we expect over the following year or so to capture further margin and yield As a result of adopting MAA's more sophisticated revenue management practices and technology platform, coupled with our future ability to achieve operational synergies with another MAA property that is only half a mile away. Our transaction team is very active in evaluating other acquisition opportunities across our footprint. Speaker 300:06:44And Al and Clay have our balance sheet in great Despite pressure from elevated supply, our new properties in their initial lease up continue to deliver strong performance, producing higher NOIs and earnings than forecasted, creating additional long term value for the company. These properties on average have captured in place rents 15% above our original expectations. For the 5 properties that are either leasing or will start leasing by the end of the year, this rent outperformance, which is partially Higher expenses including taxes and insurance is estimated to produce an average stabilized NOI yield of 6.7%, significantly higher than our original expectations. Leasing has progressed well at MA Windmill Hill in Austin, And we expect this community to stabilize this quarter. We continue to advance predevelopment work on several projects, but due to some permitting and approval delays, Three projects that we plan to start this year will likely instead start in early 2024. Speaker 300:07:52In a number of markets In a number of our markets, construction costs have been slower to adjust than we expected, but we continue to see signs that a broader reduction in cost is likely to come. Numerous consultants that we work with, including architects and engineers, have indicated their volume of work has significantly decreased in the last few months, Providing further evidence of a decline in new construction activity. Additionally, general contractors are indicating they have more capacity to start new projects and in many cases with a larger pool of subcontractors available. In addition to the 3 projects mentioned that we expect to start over the next 6 months, We have 5 more projects representing approximately 13 20 units that could be ready for construction start by the end of 2024. Our team has done a tremendous job building out our future development pipeline and today we own or control 13 well located sites, representing a growth opportunity of nearly 3,700 units. Speaker 300:08:52We have optionality on when we start these projects, Allowing us to maintain our patience and discipline when making capital deployment decisions. Any project we start in 2024 will deliver units into a stronger environment with lower competitive supply in late 20252026. Our development team continues to evaluate land sites as well as additional prepurchase development opportunities. In this more constrained liquidity environment, we are hopeful that we may find additional development opportunities to add to our future pipeline. In addition to continuously monitoring the construction market and evaluating costs at our projects In predevelopment, our construction management team is focused on completing and delivering our remaining 5 under construction projects. Speaker 300:09:37During the Q3, the team successfully wrapped up construction on Novel West Midtown in Atlanta, completing the delivery of all 3 40 units. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 400:09:50Thanks, Brad, and good morning. Same store revenue growth for the Increasing supply pressure did impact pricing in some of our markets, resulting in blended lease over lease pricing of 1 point comprised of new lease rates declining 2.2% and renewal rates increasing 5%. Average physical occupancy was 95.7 percent resulting in revenue growth of 4.1%. The various metrics we measure related to demand remain strong. Employment markets remain stable with continued job growth across our Sunbelt markets. Speaker 400:10:33Net positive migration trends to our markets continue with move ins to our footprint well ahead of move outs outside of our footprint and remain consistent with what we have seen in the last several quarters. Resident turnover was down once again in the 3rd quarter, a 4% decrease from prior year. Collections remain strong and consistent with prior quarters. Our new resident rent to income ratio remains low and in line with prior quarters And our lead volume is consistent with what we would expect and in line with pre pandemic levels. But as mentioned, we did feel The impact from new supply in the Q3, which manifested itself in lower new lease pricing, particularly beginning in August September. Speaker 400:11:14This pressure was driven by higher concession usage by developers in many of our markets with the resulting reduction in net pricing in the number of our direct market comps. This peer pricing movement obviously does impact market pricing and impacts our asking rents. We believe the lingering higher interest rate environment With the 10 year treasury moving up quickly in the Q3 is driving merchant developers to get more aggressive on pricing and is creating some pockets of pricing pressure. Historically, with typical seasonality, pricing trends, pricing tends to moderate some in Q3 as compared to Q2 and then moderate quite a bit more from Q3 to Q4, typically in the 200 basis point range. While we did see a greater degree of moderation in the 3rd quarter as compared to 2nd quarter, with the solid demand factors mentioned previously, we expect less moderation than normal from Q3 to Q4. Speaker 400:12:08October to date, blended lease over lease pricing is 0, which is within 10 basis points of what was achieved in September and a lower rate of decline than the more typical 60 basis points. Average physical occupancy for October month to date remains Strong at 95.6 percent with exposure, which is a combination of current vacancy and units on notice to vacate, That's 6.9% and in line with October of last year. In addition to the demand factors mentioned, Increased absorption through the Q3 in the Sunbelt markets provides further evidence of continued solid demand to help mitigate The impact is the continuing new deliveries. The amount of new supply that was absorbed in the Q3 in our markets was the highest it has been since the beginning of 2022. Despite the new supply pressure in some markets, our unique portfolio strategy to maintain a broad diversity of markets, submarkets, asset types and price points It's serving us well with many of our mid tier markets leading the portfolio and pricing performance both in the Q3 and into October. Speaker 400:13:12Savannah, Charleston, Richmond, Greenville and Raleigh are examples of markets outperforming larger metros with more new supply pressures such as Austin and Phoenix. We expect that this market diversification combined with the continued strong demand fundamentals noted earlier will help continue to mitigate some of the impact from new supply as compared to a less diversified portfolio. Regarding redevelopment, we continued our various product upgrade initiatives in the Q3. For the Q3 of 2023, we completed nearly 2,300 interior unit upgrades and are nearing completion on the smart home initiative Over 92,000 units now with this technology. For our repositioning program, we have 5 active projects that have either begun repricing or will begin repricing in the 4th quarter with expected deals in the 8% range. Speaker 400:14:01Additionally, we are evaluating an additional group of properties to potentially begin construction later in 2023 or early in 2024 with the targets That's all I had in the way of prepared comments. I'll now turn the call over to Clay. Speaker 500:14:17Thank you, Tim, and good morning. Reporting core FFO for the quarter of $2.29 per share was $0.03 per share above the midpoint of our guidance. The outperformance was primarily driven by favorable interest and overhead costs during the quarter. Overall, same store operating performance for the quarter was in line with our expectation. Same store revenues were slightly ahead of expectations as average occupancy was better than forecasted. Speaker 500:14:43The increase in occupancy was offset by the moderation of effective rent growth on new move in leases that Tim mentioned. As expected, we began to Some moderation in same store operating expense growth during the Q3. However, this moderation was less than what we had forecasted. Personnel costs came at higher than expected, primarily due to higher contract labor costs and higher leasing commissions, which helped drive the improvements in occupancy. The personnel costs were partially offset by real estate taxes that were favorable to our forecast for the quarter. Speaker 500:15:15We received more information related to the Texas state legislation that was passed in the quarter that reduced property tax rates in the state. Our projection for real estate taxes for the full year remains unchanged. During the quarter, we invested a total of $19,700,000 of capital through our redevelopment, repositioning and smart rent installation programs. Those investments continue to produce strong returns and add to the quality of our portfolio. We also funded just over $47,000,000 of development costs during the Quarter for the completion of the current $643,000,000 pipeline, leaving $296,000,000 remaining to be funded on this pipeline over the next 2 years. Speaker 500:15:56As Brad mentioned, we also expect to start several new projects over the next 12 to 18 months, which our balance sheet remains well positioned to support. We ended the quarter with $1,400,000,000 in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, providing significant opportunity to fund potential investment opportunities. Our leverage remains historically low with the debt to EBITDA ratio at 3.4 times. And at quarter end, our debt was 100% fixed for an average of just over 7 years at a low average interest rate of 3.4%. In October, we refinanced $350,000,000 of maturing debt, Utilizing cash on our balance sheet and our commercial paper program. Speaker 500:16:36Our current plan is to continue to be patient and allow interest rates and financing markets to stabilize before refinancing. That's all I have for my prepared comments and I'll turn it over to Al to discuss Q4 guidance. Speaker 600:16:48Thank you, Clay. Good morning, everyone. Given the Q3 performance outlined by Clay as well as expectations for the remainder of the year, we have updated and narrowed our guidance ranges for the year, which detailed in the supplement to our release. Overall, the Q3 core FFO favorability primarily related to overhead and interest costs is expected to be essentially offset The higher than projected same store operating expenses for the remainder of the year, which I'll discuss a bit more in just a moment. Thus, we're maintaining the midpoint of our core FFO projection for the full year of $9.14 per share, which reflects a 7.5% growth over the prior year. Speaker 600:17:24The midpoint of our total revenue growth projection for the year remains unchanged as The impact of pricing moderation, which is reflected in effective rent growth, is largely offset by the increase in projected average occupancy for the year. However, we have increased our guidance for same store operating expense growth for the full year by 45 basis points to 6.5% at the midpoint, primarily reflecting the continued pressure in labor costs, partially related to building higher occupancy. Both personnel and repair and maintenance are expected to moderate more as we move into 2024. While we maintained our full year guidance range for real estate taxes, we are impacted by some timing related pressure during the 4th Some of the initial favorability related to the Texas rate reduction is essentially offset by delays in litigation related to high valuations, which is being pushed into next year. We do expect real estate taxes overall to continue moderating over the next couple of years as we work through the changing cap rate environment. Speaker 600:18:20We also reduced our total overhead cost projection for the year by $2,000,000 to $126,500,000 at the midpoint And we removed our disposition expectations for the current year to reflect the current market conditions. So that's all that we have in the way of prepared comments. Brittany, we'll now turn the call Back to you for Operator00:18:41questions. We will now open the call up for questions. We'll take our first question from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Line is open. Speaker 700:18:58Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is just on the impact Of the merchant builders delivering into a higher supply, higher rate environment, it seems like it's changed the leak up strategy. So I guess, is the largest impact here that rental rates have gone low have moved lower And will remain lower longer. And so I guess, the initial expectations, so will Does this create more pressure in the near term and also for longer? Speaker 700:19:32Or is it just kind of a lower dip before it gets Better kind of seems like back half of Speaker 800:19:38twenty twenty four early twenty twenty five. Speaker 400:19:40I mean, I don't think it necessarily means longer. I think what What did happen as we talked about it, it happened a little bit quicker and I think the comments I made about the treasury and developers get more aggressive Calls that moderation in new lease rates to occur a little bit earlier than we would have thought or a little bit quicker really. We don't see much further deceleration. I think what we see is with renewal rates continuing to be strong, We're getting 5% on what we've sent out or what we've got acceptance on for November December at the 5% range. The spread between new lease rates and renewal rates is pretty typical honestly for this time of the year and tends to gap out Both in Q4 and Q1, I think as you get into later into 2024, there'll be some normal seasonality that'll Narrow that gap, but we'll be in this supply environment for the next few quarters, but don't expect materially worsening from here. Speaker 700:20:44Got it. And are you seeing any difference in the performance between your Class B properties with your price that are discounted supply versus The Class A, which should be competing more in line with where the new supply is coming in, like where is the pressure hitting the hardest? Thank you. Speaker 400:21:02At a portfolio level, we're not seeing a huge difference between the performance in As and Bs. I will say at a market level, some of our larger markets That are getting more of the supply. We're seeing a little more pressure on some of those B plus, A minus assets where that gap has narrowed. But I do think that creates some opportunity longer term. Those new developments are going to have to stabilize at some point at higher rents and that will create some opportunity there. Speaker 400:21:27But in some of our more mid tier markets and smaller markets that aren't getting quite the supply pressure, we're not seeing that pressure. Speaker 200:21:33And I think it's worth noting that Even at the use of concessions is happening by some of the merchant developers in the Q3, the price Operator00:22:09Thank you. We'll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc. Your line is open. Speaker 900:22:15Great. Thank you. Last quarter, Eric, you had mentioned that you really didn't expect new lease rate growth to drop off and kind of highlighted that demand remains strong. So I guess, is it just been the cumulative impact of supply and concessions on lease ups that's driven the softness? And really, how does that change your view around how 2020 Speaker 200:22:39Well, Austin, I think that, as Tim alluded to, I mean, the That frankly was a little bit surprising in the Q3 was the more aggressive Practices taking place by some of the merchant developers that was directly impacting some of our product in some of the larger markets. We do think that there's It's interesting, we were looking at just sort of what happened during the Q3 in terms of the sort of rapid ramp up in the 10 year treasuries. And I think as developers are facing, particularly merchant builders who are facing a more competitive leasing landscape With the reality of a prolonged high interest rate environment, there was a motivation, if you will, To get pretty darn aggressive in trying to get leased up before we got into the holiday season. And so that affected market dynamics In some of our markets and I think cause new lease pricing to moderate a little quicker than we would have otherwise thought just because these merchant builders are a little bit of urgency to Get stabilized sooner rather than later. And so I think that The performance, we think likely probably continues at some level, probably for the next couple of quarters or so. Speaker 200:24:10As Tim mentioned, we don't given the strong absorption that we see happening overall across our markets, it's hard to see it getting Any worse than what we kind of saw in Q3? And then we're encouraged by the fact that October performance In the normal seasonal pattern that we see from Q3 to Q4, frankly, is better than what we have seen in the past. So I mean, there are reasons for us to feel that we think that the environment we find ourselves in right now is likely to sort of continue for a while, Probably through, I'm guessing through Q2 of next year. By the time we get to Q3 of next year, comparing against this year, we think that The things start to feel a lot more comfortable. Now we'll have the compounding effect of Q3, Q4, Q1 that we'll I have to carry and kind of work through revenue performance through most of next year, but we think that there's arguments to be made that the supply demand dynamics is That we see taking place right now are likely just sort of hang where they are for the next few quarters, but not get materially weaker. Speaker 900:25:23Got it. And so I mean, I guess that kind of went to my second question was it sounds like you think demand remains April from here, which has actually been fairly strong, I think even accelerated the last couple of quarters and helped absorb some of this supply. I mean, is it fair to say that you think you get some level of market rent growth positive next year, despite kind of this cumulative impact Based on your thoughts on how demand shakes out? Speaker 200:25:51Yes, we do. I mean, assuming that the economy continues to hold up as it is, We continue to capture the sort of tailwind that we're seeing with low resident turnover, lower levels of move outs to buy homes. Collections continue to remain strong. I mean, there's just as I've said for many, many years, to me, at the end of the day, what really drives Performance over the long haul is the demand side of the business and that can in these that's why we've always focused our capital in the way we have across these Sunbelt markets, Believing that the demand dynamic continues to provide a foundation for how we like to create value and drive performance over a long period of time. We have to deal with this periodic supply pressure that comes from time to time and that's kind of what we're dealing with right now. Speaker 200:26:43But Because of the demand side being as strong as it is, the absorption continuing to be where it is. And because of the approach that we take with We think there are things that we can do to help sort of mitigate some of the supply pressure that you otherwise might think would If you look at just overall market dynamics, we think that when you put the portfolio together the way that we have that we can push back against some of these supply pressures When they do occur from time to time. So I think that we think that as we get into the back half of next year That we probably do start to see supply levels start to moderate And some of the developer pressure start to moderate. We probably do start to see market rent growth turn positive on the new lease Pricing and then as Tim mentioned, we continue to get pretty solid performance on our renewal practices. And if you go back over a number of years, you'll see that our renewal How we think about renewal pricing and we continue to believe that that will remain a tailwind for us over the coming year. Speaker 900:28:00Thanks, Eric. Appreciate the detailed response. Operator00:28:05Thank you. We'll take our next question from Eric Wolf with Citi. Your line is now open. Speaker 800:28:11Hey, thanks. I just want to follow-up on that answer there. You said that you don't expect New lease rates to get much worse from here. So I don't want to put words in your mouth, but does that mean you're sort of expecting like negative 4% to negative 5% new lease For the foreseeable future and should that continue through Q2 next year because it sounds like you're saying that with the dynamic you're seeing today should continue to 2Q and then probably get Speaker 400:28:38Hey Eric, this is Tim. I mean, I do think new lease rates probably hang in this Range for a few months. Obviously, typically Q4 and Q1 are kind of the weakest in terms of seasonality and the amount Traffic and all that. But I do think we will see some level of and Eric hit on this a little bit, some level of normal seasonality as we get into later into 2024. So think as we get into March April in the spring and higher traffic volumes that we'll see some acceleration in those new lease rates. Speaker 400:29:10And I don't expect Much change in renewals. We've been pretty consistent with our renewal rates going back for several years. We think those will hold up We think the turnover rate remains low, which provides the renewal side with more of that blend when you think about blend of lease over lease rates. So I think we're going to be in this range for a few months, but I don't think it sticks like that for the next 12 months. Speaker 200:29:35And we typically see the gap between new lease pricing or renewal pricing sort of gap out the most in Q4 and New lease pricing or renewal pricing sort of gap out the most in Q4 and Q1 and then it tends to narrow in Q2 and Q3. And think that that seasonal pattern is likely to repeat next year. Speaker 800:29:50Got it. That's really helpful. And I guess that that's my second question, which is that, I think you said there's been about 500 to 600 basis points of spread on renewals versus new leases. There's nothing That would sort of change that just based on the supply dynamic today. It's not going to get wider or necessarily thinner. Speaker 800:30:08It's just it's probably going to be about the same spread as typical. Speaker 400:30:12Yes. And to clarify or put some color on that, that 500 spread for us typically is what it is in the summer and Q2, Q3 range with renewals remaining pretty consistent. Historically Q4, Q1, Q4 is usually the biggest. It's usually in the 900 basis point range kind of similar to what we're seeing right now and then squeeze down to call it 700 to 800 in Q1 and then get more in that 500 basis point range during the heart of the spring and summer. So don't really see that's the normal seasonality. Speaker 400:30:44We would expect that To recurring some level. Speaker 800:30:49Got it. Okay. Thank you. Operator00:30:53Thank you. We'll take our next Question from Sandy Feldman with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Speaker 1000:31:00Great. Thank you and thanks for taking my question. So It sounds like you could see a ramp up here in acquisition activity, investment activity. You had mentioned the Phoenix acquisition at 3 $317,000 per unit, you also talked about 5.5% yield. As you think about deals, I mean, what are the metrics that you care about? Speaker 1000:31:20Is it price per unit? Is it AFFO accretion? Is it NAV accretion? And then how do you think about your cost of capital And the required spread to your cost of capital to put money to work. Speaker 200:31:35Well, I mean, the thing that we really Prioritized more than anything is sort of what sort of stabilized yield do we think we will get From making a new investment and how does that compare to our current cost of capital. And as you think about cost of capital today and look at sort of where we are Able to put our balance sheet to work at call it 5.5%. You think about Longer perspective on cost of capital being a function of dividend yield and sort of FFO yield, core FFO yield, You blend that, you're still in that kind of 5.5% range. And so, as we think about this deal that we did in Phoenix, I mean, the opportunity To put a brand new asset on the balance sheet that is going to be, we think a great performer for us long term Long term to put that on the balance sheet initially, even though it's still in sort of its Initial lease up to be able to bring it on the balance sheet at basically right at our cost of capital with full understanding that we've got Real operating upside opportunity that we can capture over the 1st year or so from our revenue management practices and some of the cost efficiencies that we'll bring to bear on an operation that doesn't have those advantages, coupled with the fact is, as Brad mentioned, this property It's less than half a month from one of our other properties and we will over the next year or so pod what we refer to Pod this property with the other and drive down some of the operating costs. Speaker 200:33:17We think over the next couple of years that we'll see that yield meaningfully go up from there. Yes, we think at this point that makes a lot of sense to us. And I think that we are going to continue to we think see more of that Should emerge over the coming year. Speaker 1100:33:36Okay. Speaker 1000:33:36And can you quantify how much you think the yield goes up with the revenue management and Putting the MAA touch on these assets? Speaker 200:33:45I'd probably put it at least 100 basis point margin Expansion to probably 200, somewhere in that range. Speaker 1000:33:55Okay. And then secondly, you may have answered it With Eric's question, but just thinking about October, I mean, what can you tell us about rents, blended rents, new renewal rents so far in October? Speaker 400:34:09Yes, this is Tim. So for October, as I mentioned, and the blended is right around 0. We're at about Negative 5.3% on new lease and 4.4% on renewals as we stand right now. Speaker 1000:34:23Okay. And then finally for me, Atlanta specifically, can you talk about I mean you had kind of below average Revenue growth there. Is that pressure on rents from supply? Or is that more about some of the issues you mentioned in the past fraud, Some of the other kind of unique factors to that market. Speaker 400:34:44Yes. I mean, there's certainly a few unique factors in Atlanta and what you mentioned as part of that. I mean pricing is a little bit weak. It's a little bit lower than I would say some of our portfolio average. They are getting some of the supply pressure that a lot of the other markets are getting as well. Speaker 400:35:04I think what we're seeing in Atlanta is a little more in the occupancy side. Though it has it is slowly improving, we saw a 40 basis point Increase in occupancy from Q2 to Q3 in Atlanta, but there are a couple of unique circumstances that you mentioned. 1, Earlier in the year, we talked about between the winter storm and a fire we had in Atlanta, we had a lot of down units that came on sort of late first, early second. So We were kind of working through that from an occupancy standpoint. And then as been well documented by a lot of people, some of the fraud Concerns in Atlanta and I think that's starting to work itself through as well. Speaker 400:35:42The courts are becoming A little more aggressive on that and we've seen the number of skip evicts that we've had in that market is about double from where it was last year. So Craig, some pressure in the short term on occupancy, but certainly in longer term in terms of revenue quality and ability to pay is much better. And we've also been able through In house training we've done and really focus on fraud income. We've seen the number of people coming into the door, we think is With that scenario is much less. We've seen our number of age balances we have in terms of residences way down And just the amount of delinquency we have in Atlanta is way down. Speaker 400:36:21So some unique circumstances there for sure, but we think it's headed in the right direction. Speaker 1000:36:28Okay. And as you think about those factors, does it give you pause on it being your largest market? I mean over the long term, is that a reason you'd want to shrink there or grow in other markets more? Speaker 200:36:39I mean, we continue to look at all the markets and we probably over the next Number of years, you'll probably see us continue to cycle some capital out of the Atlanta. It's going to be more driven by asset specific decisions, Property specific decisions, I mean, we continue to like the Atlanta market long term, a lot of great Job growth drivers and demand drivers in that market, it's like all the other markets. They will go through periods of supply pressure from time to time, but The demand dynamics there are pretty healthy. And I think some of the things that Tim was alluding to that were Unique to Atlanta, really are attributable to some of the practices that were adopted The COVID years and the court systems there got really sort of backlogged, if you will. And it's just taken longer for that Market to sort of work back to normal. Speaker 200:37:42We see it happening, but we like the Atlanta market long term for sure. Okay. Speaker 1000:37:49All right. Thank you. Operator00:37:53Thank you. We will take our next question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Speaker 1100:38:00Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to get Your loss to lease, if you're able to quantify that? Speaker 400:38:10Yes, Nick, this is Tim. So a Couple of comments there. If you look at sort of where we are right now and what's going to earn in or be baked in for next year with pricing today plus The pricing that we're assuming for Q4 probably have 1 to 1.25 of baked in or earned in, if you will, that will flow into 2024. The thing about loss to lease and just in terms of kind of where rents are right now, it's probably about a negative one loss to lease Given what we've seen with new lease rates right now, that's where I would peg it to sit here in October. Speaker 200:38:46Okay. And that's very helpful. Speaker 1100:38:48Just one other question. Going back to the acquisition and the 5.5% initial Stable yield. Is that number impacted by concessions reducing that yield? I don't know if there's any way Speaker 1200:39:02you can quantify like Whether Speaker 1100:39:04that would be a higher yield absent if there's concessions? Speaker 300:39:09Yes. Hi, Nick. This is Brad. Yes, I mean think that's inclusive of concessions. The property is in lease up and it's offering about a month to 6 weeks Generally on new leases and so that includes the impact of that. Speaker 300:39:24So that would be your net effective rent. So assuming that We get the stabilization, we would see some strengthening there and the use of concessions would generally burn off On renewals, we're not using generally using concessions on these properties. We would also see some expansion in that yield at that point. Speaker 1300:39:44Okay, great. Thanks. Operator00:39:48Thank you. We will take our next question from John Kim with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 1400:39:54Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about the impact of rising interest rates on leasing demands and landlord behavior. I know you commented that the demand has been strong, you had an occupancy pickup in the Q3. So when you discuss New lease growth rates of minus 4% in September and minus 5.3% in October, it seems to coincide with the interest rate environment. Speaker 1400:40:17Just wanted to get your comment on that. Speaker 200:40:21I think what we think is at play here is that in this environment With a lot of these merchant built properties currently in lease up, the lease up environment And the financing environment that they are facing today is most assuredly not what they contemplated when they started construction 2 years ago. And as a consequence of that, I believe that what is happening is that some of the Merchant built product is in a rush to get stabilized As quickly as possible, preferably before we even get into the holiday season, which is why I think there was a lot of noticeable Shift that took place in August September because it's probably they're probably late in their timeline In terms of what they forecast and what they underwrote and certainly they are going to face a exit Or refinancing that is going to be different than what was contemplated. And while there may have been some early hope That we would start to see moderation in interest rates by this time. I think that hope is now gone. And we likely are in this rate environment we are in today for quite some time moving forward. Speaker 200:41:45So I just think that all that is combined to create We knew in a highly supply or high supply environment that lease up pressure exists, but I think it's just been a little bit Because of what's going on with the interest rate environment and therefore it's manifesting itself in more competitive Pricing practices in an effort to attract new residents and leasing traffic. And So I think that that's what's at play here. I think that once we sort of work through this scenario that As we've been talking about the supply pressure starts to get a lot better, meaningfully better and we think that We just got to put our head down and operate through this for the next couple of quarters or so. Speaker 1400:42:34Can you comment on your turnover rate, which Declined 40 basis points and remains near historically low level. And how you We're able to maintain this turnover rate with all the new supply that's coming online and if you're contemplating offering concessions on renewal. Speaker 400:42:56Hey, John, this is Tim. I mean, as far as the turnover, I mean, we expected we certainly didn't really expect Those are far and away our 2 biggest reasons for move outs and as expected the move outs by house is way down. So we don't see that Again, given the interest rate environment, we don't see that changing anytime near term. Some of the other things that drove move out or turnover up This year are down. So I would expect as we get into 2024 that there's not a lot of change in terms of turnover, certainly no significant Increase in turnover. Speaker 400:43:38And so I think that serves us well on the renewal side. But certainly we wouldn't Need to look into anything more than we're doing now on that renewal. Speaker 200:43:46Encouragingly, I'll add in the Q3, the move outs that we had that occurred due to rent increase were half of what they were in Q3 of last year. So, what's really at play here on the Speaker 1400:44:06Great. Thank you, everyone. And Al, congratulations on your retirement. Speaker 600:44:11Yes. Thank you, John. I'm excited about the prospects of the future, but also excited about what the company is going to do in the next few quarters and years as well. Speaker 1400:44:20You leave the company in good hands. Thank you. Speaker 400:44:23Thank you. Operator00:44:25Thank you. We'll take our next question from Josh Darian with Bank of America. Speaker 1100:44:33Hey, guys. Just wanted to follow-up on a comment you made. It sounded like you're a bit I guess, what is most surprising to you? Speaker 200:44:49Well, we're not surprised by the competition from new supply. What we're surprised by is How aggressive some of the merchant developers have gotten in an effort To expedite their lease up sooner than as getting stabilized as quick as possible. And as I've commented on, We think that that is related to what is clearly now an indication relating to interest rate trends. And I mean, we saw The behavior with lease ops and concessions began to shift a bit in August September as the 10 year treasury really started moving up to 5%, close to 5%. And I think it just triggered The urgency and developers that have lease up projects on their books to get Stabilize and get out of it or get it as soon as possible. Speaker 200:45:50And so I think that that's what's at play here and that and so the That was probably the only thing that or it was the only thing I can point to that was a bit of a surprise. We Expected demand to remain solid and it is, as Tim alluded to, our absorption numbers across our markets are really strong. We've not seen any moderation on the demand side of the curve. We knew the supply picture. I mean, there was no secret about that. Speaker 200:46:22We've seen that coming for The past year or so, so no real surprises there. It's really just the behavior Some of these lease up projects and the motivation that they have to get leased up sooner rather than later. And I think that that goes right back to what I just mentioned is that the recognition that the high rate environment we find ourselves in, interest environment is likely to be with us for a while. And I think it just prompted some actions on behalf of developers to get Drop pricing, introduce more concessions, higher concessions, drive down net effective pricing quicker, which affected market dynamics to some degree. Speaker 1100:47:04Okay. Appreciate that color. And maybe just a follow-up on that. If I think through it, Pretty sure peak deliveries are still in 2024. Is your assumption that this aggressive behavior kind of continues? Speaker 1100:47:20Because I mean, I've assumed that there's more properties coming online and the interest rates keep going higher, they would want to kind of lease up as quick as possible. Do you think this competition gets more, I guess heavier in 2024? Maybe that's my question there. Speaker 200:47:42It's hard to say for sure, but the short answer is no, I don't think so. I think that Where there is an urgency that's come into the equation and then a higher level of urgency by developers, I think to some degree, a lot of it may be time to some calendar year end pressures that they may be thinking about. I think that perhaps is at play here a bit. When you think about supply levels being where they are, we don't It's of course, it varies a lot by market. And we think That the supply levels and deliveries that are taking place are likely to be fairly consistent to where they are right now for the next Couple of quarters or so, call it through Q2 of next year. Speaker 200:48:32And so it's hard to pinpoint it exactly, but I don't think that there is material Change in the supply dynamic that we're seeing today. I don't think there's a material change in the demand dynamic that we see taking place Today, I think and I think that the only change was, if you will, just that lease up pressure that I think some of the developers were feeling Given what's going on with the interest rates and I think perhaps that there is some at least some of them that are facing some calendar year end obligations that they're Speaker 300:49:11I'll add color in 2 ways to that. Number 1 is just remember that Developers are incentivized to lease up and sell quickly. Their IRRs are impacted. Obviously, the sooner they sell an asset and I think partly what's happened on these projects is according to our math, generally they have to be about 90% occupied To cover their current debt service coverage through their cash flow without having to go back to their partner and ask for capital. So to Eric's point, I think once The 10 year hit that psychological level of 4%. Speaker 300:49:45It was a realization that sales values are going to be impacted. So the sooner they could get to that point, the better for their IRR calculations and also for the waterfalls In those projects, so I think that's driving to Eric's point by the end of the year and a quicker process of leasing up to cover debt service coverage and get to the point where they could transact The asset in order to drive higher waterfall promotes to themselves. Speaker 1100:50:15Got it. Thanks guys. Operator00:50:19Thank you. And we will take our next question from John Pawlowski with Green Street. Your line is open. Speaker 1300:50:26Thanks. Good morning. Clay, do you expect any notable acceleration or deceleration in the major expense categories throughout the next year? Speaker 500:50:37We do expect that there will be some moderation in operating expenses going into next year. You saw in the report that Personnel costs and repair and maintenance costs were higher than what we had expected or projected, but we still do Those to continue to moderate as we move into next year. Speaker 1300:50:59Roughly 6% property tax Growth rate, do you expect it to kind of bounce around this level for the foreseeable future? Speaker 500:51:06Probably that will probably moderate a little bit as well As this current environment that we're seeing with high prices, evaluations, as those begin to kind of taper down, That should work its way through the real estate taxes. And so we expect to see some moderation there as well. How fast that will play through, that remains to be seen. Speaker 1300:51:28Okay. Last one for me, Tim. Hoping you can give us a sense for what new lease declines in October looked like in a few of the most heavily supplied I'm just curious what the kind of the bottom tranche of Speaker 1500:51:40the portfolio looks like there. Speaker 400:51:44New lease range for October, is that what you're Speaker 1300:51:48for the most heavily supplied markets. Speaker 400:51:50Yes. I mean, Austin continues to be the worst We've talked about that for a while. Austin is in the high negative single digits and is our worst market in terms of new lease pricing. Like I said, same store level, it's right around 3 or right around 5 for October. Tampa is a little bit higher, But Austin is the one that kind of stands out above all. Speaker 1400:52:20Okay. Thank you for your time. Speaker 700:52:22Sure. Thank Operator00:52:25you. We'll take our next question from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 1600:52:32Hey, good morning, everybody. It seems like the message here is that there are a few weak quarters ahead, but that things are expected to get better in the back half of 24. I'm just curious if you can give more color around what gives you confidence in that timing. You do obviously have supply peaking in mid-twenty 24, but it does Elevated into 2025 and then the lease ups don't end when the deliveries fall off. So curious for any thoughts there. Speaker 200:52:56Well, I think that what I would point to Brad is this is Eric is just we continue to see a lot of support on the demand side And the absorption rates that we see taking place remain very healthy. And so I think that All the factors that are sort of supporting the demand side of the business, the employment markets, low turnover, solid collections performance, wage growth, All those factors, continued net positive migration trends, all those factors continue to look Solid and then there's nothing that we can see suggesting that moderation is set to occur in that regard. I think that as we sort of work through the current pipeline of deliveries That some of the behavior that is occurring right now likely starts to moderate A little bit as some of the more stressed lease ups Get sort of work through the system and in some of the developers under the most pressure, if you will, Sort of get work through the system and then of course as we start to get into the back half of next Sure. We've been through a complete cycle, if you will, with this pressure. And the comparisons to the prior leases and the comparisons to the prior year start to get a little bit More tolerable, if you will. Speaker 200:54:38So I just think that we feel like that we've got, call it, 2 or 3 quarters Of this environment, you've got seasonal patterns that play here too. You recognize that Q3 Is the point of the year where moderation has typically always occurred anyway from a leasing perspective and then It sort of works through Q4 and then by Q1, particularly in February and particularly in March, things start to pick up and then you get into the spring and the summer And the absorption rate picks up even more. So I think that to have what we have now happening in 1 of the weaker from a seasonality perspective and early on in the delivery sort of pressure pipeline, I think that it gives us some reason to and comfort that by the time we get to the back half of next The conditions start to change a bit. Speaker 1100:55:41Okay. That's all I have. Thanks. Operator00:55:45Thank you. We'll take our next question from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Speaker 1700:55:52Hey, thanks for taking my question. So you guys discussed the rising labor cost a little bit and maybe that's especially with 3rd party vendors. So just thinking about that, it'd be fair to presume that Your markets are strong economically, which would bode well for demand. So thinking about the big picture, Would it be fair to say that demand and rent growth are healthy enough to offset the rising labor costs? Speaker 300:56:21Well, I mean, Speaker 200:56:26the demand is strong, but In terms of revenue growth, I mean, the problem we're facing is or the challenge we're facing is just Lot of supply in the pipeline right now and that's what's really that sort of supply demand dynamic is not as strong as it had been. And so that's what's really creating this Spread if you will between sort of rent growth and what we see taking place with growth rate in labor costs. As Clay alludes to, we are seeing at least with our own sort of hiring Practices that we are starting to see a little moderation begin to show up. And we do think as we get into and as Brad alluded to, we're seeing a lot of evidence out there with some of the People we talked to various vendors and architects and others we work with on the development side that the construction Workforce is starting to have a little bit more availability and is not quite as much in demand. And that to some degree affects Our labor costs as it relates to our maintenance operations. Speaker 200:57:47So we do think as Clay alluded to, we do think that We likely are looking at some moderation in labor cost from the growth rate that we're seeing today. We Some moderation on that as we get into next year. Speaker 1700:58:05Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe sticking with demand, You've referenced that demand is really the driving force a lot and supply comes and goes. Could you just maybe rank How like historically, how strong demand is and the pace of demand in this year maybe heading into the year end Compared to previous years in cycles? Speaker 200:58:29Well, I mean, this is Tim, you want to anything to add? Speaker 1100:58:32Yes. I mean, I Speaker 400:58:33was just going to make one point at a high level. We've done some research and with some of our 3rd party data, if you go back the last 5 years or so, or really, really last 5 or 10 years, the highest supply markets, Which tend to have been in the Sunbelt have also been some of the best rent growth markets and that's because of that demand side. We have historically over the long term demand has more than offset the supply picture. Now we have an elevated supply picture right now that's Put that out of the balance at least for a temporary time. But as we get into late next year and over the long term, historically it's shown and we believe continue to show and Speaker 200:59:21I can't tell you compared to Sort of the migration numbers that we saw kind of throw the COVID years out, which were a bit unusual, but the level of net In migration that we see happening right now is still higher than it was historically, higher than it was Before COVID. And so these Sunbelt markets continue to offer a lot of Things that employers are looking that component of the demand cycle, I think is better than it historically has been. I will also tell you that the move outs to home buying and the tailwind that we're getting on demand as a consequence of that Have never been this strong either. And so there are some unique variables out there right now They continue to support demand at a level that is stronger than what we've seen historically. Speaker 1701:00:24Okay. I appreciate the color. And maybe if I could just sneak one more in. Going back to Atlanta, do you mention that you're recapturing some of the units due to The fraud issues or would you be able to provide a timeline on when you would recapture those units? Thanks. Speaker 401:00:41Well, I mean, it's an ongoing process. I think what we've seen is that for a period from COVID Up until really early this year, the counties in Atlanta specifically have been really slow to act or take any action whatsoever. And So we've seen that start to accelerate. It's Fulton County is still a little bit of an issue, but Cobb and the Cavs have increased So we see it starting to happen. But and I think we've gotten through a lot of it, but it'll over the next few months. Speaker 401:01:14And I think as we get into later next year, we're back into more of a normal situation in terms of Atlanta. Mike said, we've done a lot of work to make sure we're not exacerbating the problem by letting any potential fraudulent people coming in the front door. Speaker 1701:01:34All right. Great. Thank you very much. Operator01:01:38Thank you. We'll take our Question from Rich Anderson with Wedbush. Your line is open. Speaker 1501:01:43Hey, thanks. Good morning. So getting back to the Acquisition strategy, I think one of the problems we've faced over the years is they They bought when they should be selling and they've sold when they should be buying. So what you're saying is interesting. I'm wondering Speed by which this strategy can unfold, you talked about the implied cost of your equity. Speaker 1501:02:10If Your balance sheet is obviously very attractive, but perhaps inefficiently so at 3.4 times debt. That leaves $1,300,000,000 or so of more debt you can put on just to get to 4.5 times. So maybe that's Now I think in the rate environment, but I'm just curious, you've got scenarios delivered to finance this. Could this be Some sizable activity at this point? Or do you think it will be more like one off asset by asset, like non needle moving Speaker 201:02:46Well, we hope it will be needle moving. We're optimistic, Rich, That there will be certainly more buying opportunity emerging over the coming year. Now having said that, There are a lot of people with a lot of dry powder right now. And I think multifamily real estate is still viewed as an attractive Commercial real estate asset class and everybody understands the need for housing in the country and I think there's a more healthy appreciation for these Sunbelt For the Sunbelt markets perhaps there has been in a number of years. And so we think that While the opportunity to buy in the transaction market gets better, we think that it will also potentially be pretty competitive. Speaker 201:03:37We would hope Going back to the last recession, 2008, 2009, the 2 years coming out of that Downturn, we bought 7,000 apartments over a 2 year period of time. I think I don't see that getting repeated, But we do think that the opportunity set will be more plentiful, for us going over the coming year than it has been certainly for the last 4 or 5 years, in this higher rate environment, some of the private equity players are not going to be quite as be able to be quite as aggressive As they have been, there's more of a sort of an equilibrium in terms of cost of capital between us And the private guys given their higher use of debt. And you're right, I mean, we've got a lot of capacity on the balance sheet. We're anxious to put it to work, But we're going to remain disciplined about it. But we do think that the opportunities definitely start to pick up and we're hopeful it will be insignificant. Speaker 1501:04:38Okay, great. And then second question, maybe to Tim or others, but on the October spread between new and renewal, Pendulum on these sort of growth numbers always swings too wide. I don't think anyone expected 20% plus type of rent growth a year ago, and maybe this is surprising to the downside. When you think about the first half of twenty twenty four, should we be conditioning All of us investors and analysts for negative blended number at least for the first half of the year when you From this point forward, you're not giving guidance, but is there a range of sort of surprise factor that could bring that into Speaker 401:05:350 is what we have dialed in for Q4 in terms of our forecast, which as we said, is kind of where we Sit right now for October and Q1 typically compared to Q4, if I'm thinking about sort of normal environment or historical environment It's usually pretty similar. I do think you could see those numbers move a little bit on the margins up or down in terms of blended going Slightly negative or slightly positive. I do think as we get as I mentioned earlier, as we get into the spring, I think you start to see Some normal seasonality in terms of new lease rates are not going to jump up to positive 3 or 4 all of a sudden. I think you'll see Some acceleration. So there'll be some bands, but I don't think it's widely different than what you talked about because we do think renewals remain pretty consistent. Speaker 401:06:23And with where we see turnover going, that And with where we see turnover going, that'll blend in as a little bit bigger factor in terms of overall blended rate as compared to new leases. Speaker 1501:06:34Good enough. And congrats, Al. Good luck to Speaker 601:06:38you. Thanks, Rich. I appreciate it, man. Operator01:06:43We'll take our next question from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Speaker 1201:06:49A quick question on the transaction I think you mentioned that you saw cap rates increase by 15 basis points in the 3rd quarter. Given where interest rates have gone and given where public market I would expect that to maybe expand a bit more. So, where do you think cap rates go the next few quarters as you seek to deploy more capital here? Speaker 301:07:10Yes. Hey, Anthony, this is Brad. I mean, I think a couple of things. One, keep in mind that what we saw in the Q3 It was very limited in terms of transaction. Certainly, as I mentioned in my comments, we saw activity marketing activity pick up a bit early in the Q3, but A lot of that has not closed at this point, really just a handful of projects closed and we saw those cap rates come up a little bit. Speaker 301:07:36But to Eric's point earlier about The availability of capital for well located properties in good markets, we continue to see strong bid sheets And so, and we're still seeing cap rates in the low 5% range for those well located assets. I would expect to see pressure on cap rates, but really it's going to depend on how that liquidity shows up for those assets To bid on them, but certainly given the severe movement that we've seen in the 10 year and agency debt today In the 6.5%, 6.75% range, we would expect some upward movement in cap rates, but to what degree is going to depend on The liquidity picture, the fundamentals of the properties, locations, things of that nature, so it's really hard to say where that goes from here. Speaker 1401:08:31Got it. Speaker 1201:08:32Thanks. And maybe on turnover and renewal rent growth. How aware are tenants typically of a high to flat growth environment like this? And are you Seeing tenants come to you and ask for rent declines, seeing tenants move out to newer buildings. And is that a risk Next year as more of these apartments are delivered in your market? Speaker 401:08:53Well, I think certainly they're aware. I mean the transparency now With what's on websites and social media and everything else and all the different marketing avenues and advertising, platforms that That certainly they're aware and you can see down to a unit level a lot of times on websites, but I don't think that's necessarily a new phenomenon. It's been that way Now at least for the last couple of years. So I think there's a component on the renewal side of just You've hopefully provided them with good resident service. They're happy where they're living. Speaker 401:09:25They're happy with the manager and their owner. And there are some friction costs involved as well. It's a pain to move, it's expensive to move. So there's some things from a customer service and Friction call standpoint that are meaningful. But overall, as we talked about, I don't see turnover changing much from where it is now. Speaker 401:09:45I don't think that becomes any more of an outsized pressure than it has been. All right. Thank you. Operator01:09:55Thank you. We'll take our next question from Wes Golladay with Baird. Your line is open. Speaker 1801:10:02Hey, good morning, everyone. I have a question on the capital allocation front. I mean, is there a point where your buybacks have maybe become a top priority when you consider Where development yields are penciling in and acquisition yields, I mean, it seems pretty thin, whereas a 10 year trading and typically acquisition cap rates have been north of 100, 200 basis points over the 10 year. So, it seems like it gives them the upward pressure in the private market. Speaker 201:10:28Well, again, as we touched on a little earlier, I mean, we think that the opportunity to put capital to work As we did with the Phoenix acquisition, is the appropriate and best Sort of value creation from a long term perspective, particularly given where the initial yield is And the opportunity we have, we think over the next couple of years to really improve that yield meaningfully. So we continue You should believe that remaining patient with the balance sheet capacity we have and looking for what we are expecting to The even more compelling opportunities as we move forward, with some of the distress in the market from some of these merchant builders That the longer term value creation associated with some of these acquisitions is going to make A lot more sense. As Brad mentioned, we do have an amount of opportunity teeing up on the development front, But we control the timing on that and we do think that we're going to see some moderation begin to take place with the construction cost And we think the yields there are going to get better. And so we've and as I say, we've got the luxury of Making controlling the timing of when we elect to pull the trigger on those projects. Speaker 201:12:01And of course, these projects, if we were to start anything next year, I mean, it's going to deliver in 'twenty six and 'twenty seven and it's going to be, we think, a much healthier leasing environment at that point. We're going to be patient, but we think that some of the external growth opportunities that we have in front of us over the coming couple of years Is the best sort of value creation opportunity that we have in terms of How to put this balance sheet capacity to work? Speaker 1801:12:33And a follow-up to that, are you seeing any portfolios where maybe some of the aggregated assets and Maybe debt was underwritten at a very low cap rate environment or maybe a lot of floating rate debt. Is there anything kind of penciled in that fits your quality criteria? Speaker 201:12:47Well, we pay attention to those opportunities when they come out. More often than not, what we have found is the asset Quality is not really what we want to do and not of interest to us. And a lot of the aggressive buying and high leverage buying that took place over the last And just we haven't found it to be particularly compelling to add to our balance sheet. Speaker 1801:13:28Great. Thanks for taking the questions and congrats, Sal. Speaker 601:13:31Thank you, Wes. I appreciate that, Matt. Operator01:13:35Thank you. We'll take our next question from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 1901:13:41Hi. Just one really quick one. Can you remind us what's causing higher fraud in certain markets? Is it demographic shift technology and then what are mitigation strategies? Speaker 401:13:55I mean, it's difficult to say. I think what we have seen is Certainly since COVID and post COVID that the actions taken by the courts and the judges and that sort of thing has become a little bit more lax. So that Frankly, it creates a little bit more opportunity for bad actors. What we've done in turn is We've familiarized ourselves and have some experts, so to speak, within our team that We're good at identifying that sort of thing. And frankly, what happens is if you get if you start to get a reputation, if you will, that these guys Are good at catching it and the people trying to come in the front door that way tend to stay away. Speaker 401:14:40So it starts To solve itself from some standpoint, if you can be good at detecting it and good at preventing it. Speaker 201:14:48Linda, I'd add a couple of things to that. I do think that New technology that's available to people today has probably fostered some opportunity and techniques And certain capabilities in this area that are different Certainly, than where they were years ago and probably a little bit harder to detect. And we've made some modifications in our Processes and how we screen that is now much more effective at that. And the other thing I would just comment on that you alluded to It's important to recognize that where we have seen this, it's really been pretty isolated. We've called out Atlanta And frankly, just a few properties in the Atlanta market where we saw this in a pickup in a noticeable way. Speaker 201:15:40I wouldn't suggest that this is a pervasive practice that we see happening across the And a lot of different markets, it was really more of an isolated scenario. It happens to be Atlanta where we have a lot, but and as Tim mentioned, We see the trends changing there as a consequence and improving as a consequence of some of the changes that we've made in our approval processes. Speaker 1901:16:07Got it. Thanks for the color. Operator01:16:11We have no further questions. I will turn The call over to MMA for closing remarks. Speaker 201:16:17We appreciate everyone joining us this morning, and I'm sure we'll see most of you at NAREIT in a couple of weeks. Thank you. Operator01:16:27This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.Read morePowered by