Academy Sports and Outdoors Investor Day: Q1 Outlook Raised, Targets $8B Sales and $9 EPS by 2031

Key Points

• Management set five-year targets to reach roughly $8 billion in revenue and about $9 in EPS (implying ~5% CAGR), with e‑commerce penetration targeted at 15% and roughly 7% net income.
• The growth "waterfall" centers on about 125 new stores expected to add ~$1.9 billion of sales, plus ~$300 million from incremental e‑commerce and ~$300 million from existing-business initiatives, while management shifts store targeting to outer suburbs/exurbs and says a fourth distribution center is not needed.
• Near-term outlook was raised: the company now expects Q1 sales growth of 6%–7% and comparable-sales growth of 2%–3%, and is rolling out myAcademy Rewards 2.0 (over 13 million members) plus a new Mastercard and AI tools to drive digital engagement and higher spend.

Academy Sports and Outdoors NASDAQ: ASO opened its 2026 Analyst Day with an update to its near-term outlook and a refreshed five-year financial and strategic roadmap centered on store expansion, digital growth, and customer engagement initiatives.

Q1 update and recent momentum

Dan Aldridge, vice president of investor relations, pointed analysts to a release issued the morning of the event that said the company now expects first-quarter sales growth in the range of 6% to 7% and comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%.

CEO Steve Lawrence said the business began to “inflect” ahead of last Christmas and has been “fairly consistent positive” since then, aside from a brief storm-related disruption in late January. He said performance has been broad-based and noted baseball as one area performing particularly well. Lawrence also said all four divisions ran positive in February and that strength continued into March.

Five-year targets: $8B sales and $9 EPS

Lawrence and CFO Carl Ford reiterated a five-year plan to grow revenue to roughly $8 billion, expand e-commerce penetration to 15%, and deliver roughly 7% net income, which management said would translate to about $9 in earnings per share. Ford framed the $8 billion goal as implying a 5% compound annual growth rate over the period.

Ford outlined what he described as a “waterfall” of growth drivers, including:

• $1.9 billion in sales from 125 new stores over five years (including associated omnichannel demand generation)
• $300 million of additional e-commerce growth not linked to new stores, tied to initiatives such as alternative marketplaces, search modernization, and drop ship expansion
• $300 million from existing business initiatives including brand launches, loyalty, and the planned retail media network

Ford said the plan assumes low single-digit comparable-sales growth as part of the overall five-year model.

Store growth strategy shifts to “outside-in” markets

Store growth remained management’s “number one lever,” with Lawrence targeting about 125 openings over five years. He said Academy has opened 63 stores over the past four years, bringing the chain to 323 stores across 21 states and about $6.1 billion in annual revenue.

Lawrence described a shift in real estate strategy based on early results in newer markets. He compared a first-year $10 million store in Perry, Georgia with a first-year $16.5 million store in Searcy, Arkansas, saying Searcy outperformed because it more closely matched where Academy’s core customer lives. The company is increasingly targeting outer suburbs, exurbs, and smaller markets with high concentrations of its “Always Game Family” customer, while also revisiting opportunities in legacy markets where population growth has expanded outward.

Under the plan, Lawrence said the 125-store pipeline is expected to be allocated about 40% in legacy states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas), 40% in existing states (in market five years or more), and 20% in new markets. He also said Academy has value-engineered its newer store prototype to roughly 50,000 to 55,000 square feet.

Importantly for capital needs, management said it no longer believes it must build a fourth distribution center to support the five-year store plan, instead expecting to leverage its existing three-DC network.

Loyalty, credit, and digital: driving engagement and e-commerce growth

Chief Customer Officer Chad Fox detailed customer-focused initiatives intended to boost engagement, repeat trips, and digital penetration. Fox said Academy has built a first-party dataset of more than 50 million unique and verified marketable customer profiles with “over 500 derived attributes.”

Fox said the company’s myAcademy Rewards program, launched about 18 months ago, ended last year with over 13 million members. He said roughly 30% of active customers are members and they represent about 45% of sales.

Academy has begun rolling out an enhanced “2.0” version of the program, including a merged loyalty and private label credit card structure into a three-tier program. Fox said changes include a $500 threshold that earns customers $25 in their digital wallet and the introduction of a myAcademy Rewards Mastercard offering 2% cash back on everyday spending outside Academy that can be used back in stores. Fox said customers who are loyalty members and cardholders spend 3.5 times more than the average customer, while customers shopping both in-store and online spend two times more than store-only customers.

On e-commerce, Fox emphasized “fundamentals” work including item master data governance, automated vendor data workflows, AI-driven content enrichment, and a planned migration to more semantic and agentic search. He also highlighted use of AI to generate on-model imagery for private brand apparel, citing internal test results of increased views, conversion, and orders. Fox said Academy’s “Scout” AI shopping bot delivered a higher conversion rate and higher average order values for users compared with standard search during the holiday season.

Margins, capital allocation, and shareholder returns

Ford said the company expects to expand EBIT margin by 100 basis points over the five-year plan, driven by sales leverage, supply chain efficiencies, retail media contributions, and mix improvements such as increasing private label penetration to 25%. He also said there would be opportunities to invest in customer value, noting Academy’s focus on maintaining its everyday value proposition.

On capital spending, Ford said the company guided to roughly $200 million to $250 million in capital expenditures for the current year and expects CapEx to remain below 4% of sales. He said Academy intends to invest about half of cash flow from operations back into growth initiatives and return the other half to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. Ford also said the five-year EPS outlook assumes share repurchases, and that the company had $437 million of remaining authorization at the end of fiscal 2025.

During Q&A, management said it is not currently evaluating store closures, with Ford noting the company has not closed a store since 2019 and has not impaired stores. Lawrence added Academy plans to “touch” roughly 30 to 40 stores per year through remodels or updates.

About Academy Sports and Outdoors NASDAQ: ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors is a leading specialty retailer of sporting goods and outdoor gear, operating more than 260 stores across the United States. Headquartered in Katy, Texas, the company offers a broad assortment of merchandise spanning athletic footwear and apparel, team sports equipment, camping and outdoor recreation products, hunting and fishing supplies, and fitness accessories. In addition to its brick-and-mortar footprint, Academy serves customers through its e-commerce platform, offering online ordering, in-store pickup, and home delivery options.

The company's product portfolio includes seasonal and year-round categories designed to meet the needs of both casual enthusiasts and serious athletes.

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