Green Plains Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Carbon capture & 45Z credits: CO2 compression is fully operational at Green Plains’ three Nebraska plants with CO2 sequestered in Wyoming, generating $27.7 million in 4Q tax‑credit benefits and management expects carbon‑related contributions of at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 (including about $150 million from Nebraska and ~$38 million from other low‑CI plants).
• Production capacity increase: The company raised stated production capacity (excluding Fairmont) to 730 million gallons per year — a 10% increase — with several plants (e.g., Central City and Wood River to 120M, Mount Vernon 110M, Madison 100M, York to 60M) reporting record volumes and yields.
• Improved financials and balance sheet actions: 4Q net income was $11.9 million (vs. a $54.9M loss year‑ago) and adjusted EBITDA was $49.1 million; the company refinanced most 2027 convertibles with a new $200 million note due 2030, repurchased ~2.9 million shares, held ~$230.1 million in cash, and reported no near‑term debt maturities.

Green Plains NASDAQ: GPRE executives highlighted stronger year-over-year earnings, expanded production capacity, and the ramp-up of carbon capture operations during the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. Management also discussed expectations for increased carbon-related contributions in 2026, ongoing efforts to reduce operating costs, and a balance sheet refinancing that reduced near-term maturity risk.

Operational performance and capacity updates

CEO Chris Osowski said 2025 included “challenges and meaningful achievements,” pointing to strong operational execution and an “exceptional safety record.” He noted that four plants reached historical production volumes during the year and seven plants achieved record ethanol yields, while protein and corn oil yields continued to improve across the fleet.

In the fourth quarter, Osowski said plant volumes again exceeded originally stated capacities, prompting the company to update maximum production volumes. Green Plains increased its stated production capacity (excluding the Fairmont facility) to 730 million gallons per year, representing a 10% increase from the prior stated capacity.

Management detailed the updated capacities at individual sites:

• Central City and Wood River increased to 120 million gallons per year each
• Mount Vernon adjusted to 110 million gallons
• Madison adjusted to 100 million gallons (Osowski noted it remains limited by state regulations, and the company is working with Illinois to increase permitted levels)
• Shenandoah adjusted to 80 million gallons
• Otter Tail and Superior moved to 70 million gallons each
• York increased from 50 million gallons to 60 million gallons

Carbon capture ramp and 45Z tax credits

A key fourth-quarter development was the startup of CO2 compression equipment at Green Plains’ three Nebraska plants, where Osowski said carbon capture is now fully operational. He added that CO2 from all three Nebraska plants is being sequestered in Wyoming, lowering carbon intensity (CI) scores and generating cash flow.

Green Plains reported realizing benefits from the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit during the quarter, which Osowski said generated $27.7 million in the period (net of discounts). CFO Ann Reis said the quarter included the company’s first payment related to transferred credits. Management said it had not yet announced a tax credit agreement for the sale of 2026 credits but described interest from counterparties and indicated it expects to share more details in the near future.

Looking ahead, Osowski said carbon-related opportunities are expected to contribute at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, subject to production volumes and CI factors. He said the figure reflects:

• 45Z production tax credits and voluntary credits at the Nebraska facilities that are sequestering CO2
• Approximately $38 million of net 45Z benefits from plants outside Nebraska that are producing low-carbon ethanol qualifying for 45Z

In response to analyst questions, management said the Nebraska portion of the carbon contribution was “built around” about $150 million, including voluntary credits that were described as in the $15 million to $20 million range. Osowski also said all five compressors were online and capturing “more than 90%” of the CO2 being produced.

Executives also addressed Treasury’s proposed 45Z regulations, which Osowski called a constructive step. In the Q&A, the company said the removal of the indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty means all of its facilities qualify for the credit threshold described on the call as being below a CI score of 50. Management also said the proposed guidance’s inclusion of on-farm practices as CI-reducing measures was a “surprise,” and the company intends to evaluate the potential upside.

Fourth-quarter financial results and balance sheet actions

Reis reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to Green Plains of $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $54.9 million, or $(0.86) per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Adjusted for $3.6 million of restructuring and non-cash charges (primarily related to accelerated stock compensation and inclusive of production tax credit benefits), fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $49.1 million, compared with $(18.2) million in the prior-year quarter. Osowski said the quarter’s adjusted EBITDA represented an improvement of more than $67 million year over year.

Quarterly revenue was $428.8 million, down 26.6% year over year. Reis attributed the decline primarily to the Obion plant sale, the idling of the Fairmont facility in January 2025, and discontinuing ethanol marketing for a third party, which reduced volumes sold.

SG&A expense totaled $22.9 million, down $2.8 million from the prior-year quarter. Reis said the company expects a consolidated SG&A run rate in the low $90 million range in 2026, which she said would be an improvement of more than $25 million compared with 2024.

Green Plains recorded depreciation and amortization of $23.5 million in the quarter, compared with $21.5 million a year earlier, and interest expense of $6.1 million, down $1.6 million year over year. Reis said 2026 interest expense is expected to be $30 million to $35 million.

During the quarter, the company refinanced most of its 2027 convertible notes through a new $200 million convertible note due in 2030. Reis said $30 million from the transaction was used to repurchase approximately 2.9 million shares. The company said it expects to retire the remaining $60 million of 2027 convertible notes with cash at maturity and that it now has no near-term debt maturities.

Liquidity at quarter-end included $230.1 million in cash equivalents and restricted cash, along with $325 million of working capital revolver availability designated primarily for commodity inventories and receivables. Total debt, inclusive of carbon equipment liabilities, was described as approximately $504 million.

Market commentary, hedging, and 2026 priorities

Senior Vice President of Trading and Commercial Operations Imre Havasi said ethanol margins in the fourth quarter “remained resilient,” supported by improved industry fundamentals versus 2024. He cited solid domestic blending and strong export demand, along with the impact of a record corn crop helping keep feedstock costs “in check.” Havasi also said the company’s partial hedges going into the quarter were beneficial as ethanol prices softened later in the period.

For the first quarter of 2026, Havasi said the company has “a significant portion” of production margin locked in, and he described industry demand as supportive domestically and internationally. He noted ethanol exports set a record last year and said the company expects export demand to increase again in 2026. Havasi added that corn oil markets were steady, while protein pricing remained under pressure.

Management also discussed E15, saying adoption continues to increase slowly and represents a large opportunity, though executives indicated it is not expected to have a major impact in 2026. During the Q&A, the company said it was fully hedged on natural gas and did not see a margin impact from the period of weather-driven volatility, though it acknowledged minor production impacts from the weather.

Osowski said the company is entering 2026 focused on capital allocation and outlined five strategic priorities:

• Improving energy efficiency and CI reduction projects
• Evaluating carbon sequestration opportunities for plants not currently on a pipeline, including capture options before Summit comes online
• Debottlenecking or expansion opportunities (under engineering review)
• Increasing on-site grain storage and receiving speed capabilities
• Balancing capital structure and returning capital to shareholders

On capital spending, Reis said 2026 sustaining capital expenditures for maintenance, safety, and regulatory needs are expected to total $15 million to $25 million. Osowski added that the company has $5 million to $10 million of efficiency projects “in the queue” on top of sustaining capital, and said larger energy reduction investments are also being evaluated.

About Green Plains NASDAQ: GPRE

Green Plains Inc is a leading producer of fuel-grade ethanol and related co-products in the United States. Headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, the company operates an integrated network of biorefineries that convert corn and other grains into renewable fuels. Through its production facilities, Green Plains supplies ethanol to domestic fuel markets and export channels, supporting efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote cleaner-burning transportation options.

Beyond ethanol, Green Plains manufactures a range of co-products that add value throughout the agricultural supply chain.

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