KeyCorp Issues Positive Outlook for SM Energy Earnings

Key Points

• KeyCorp sharply raised Q1 2026 EPS for SM from $1.22 to $1.78 and lifted estimates across 2026–2027 while reiterating an Overweight rating with a $39 price target, signaling materially stronger expected cash generation.
• SM Energy beat the most recent quarter's EPS ($0.83 vs. $0.73) but missed revenue and saw revenue decline about 17.3% year‑over‑year, underscoring operating volatility and commodity sensitivity.
• Shares climbed roughly 2.8% to $31.31 following the news; the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.22 (annualized $0.88, ~2.8% yield) and institutional investors now hold about 94.6% of the stock.

SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM - Free Report) - Stock analysts at KeyCorp increased their Q1 2026 EPS estimates for SM Energy in a research report issued on Wednesday, April 1st. KeyCorp analyst T. Rezvan now anticipates that the energy company will post earnings of $1.78 per share for the quarter, up from their prior estimate of $1.22. KeyCorp currently has a "Overweight" rating and a $39.00 price target on the stock. The consensus estimate for SM Energy's current full-year earnings is $8.10 per share. KeyCorp also issued estimates for SM Energy's Q2 2026 earnings at $2.58 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $2.29 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $2.12 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $8.83 EPS, Q1 2027 earnings at $2.06 EPS, Q2 2027 earnings at $2.22 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $2.13 EPS, Q4 2027 earnings at $2.17 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $8.57 EPS.

SM Energy (NYSE:SM - Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, February 25th. The energy company reported $0.83 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $0.73 by $0.10. The firm had revenue of $704.92 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $764.40 million. SM Energy had a net margin of 20.55% and a return on equity of 13.47%. The company's revenue was down 17.3% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $1.91 earnings per share.

A number of other equities analysts also recently commented on the stock. Zacks Research upgraded shares of SM Energy from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research note on Monday, February 16th. TD Cowen lowered their target price on shares of SM Energy from $36.00 to $30.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, March 17th. Truist Financial started coverage on shares of SM Energy in a research note on Tuesday, March 24th. They set a "buy" rating and a $38.00 target price for the company. National Bank Financial set a $30.00 target price on shares of SM Energy in a research note on Tuesday, March 17th. Finally, Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of SM Energy from a "sell (d+)" rating to a "hold (c-)" rating in a research note on Tuesday, March 17th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, six have given a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat, SM Energy currently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $32.62.

SM Energy Stock Up 2.8%

Shares of SM stock traded up $0.85 on Tuesday, reaching $31.31. 2,091,371 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 6,935,724. The company has a current ratio of 0.69, a quick ratio of 0.69 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48. The business's 50 day moving average price is $24.81 and its 200 day moving average price is $21.96. The company has a market capitalization of $7.46 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.54 and a beta of 0.78. SM Energy has a twelve month low of $17.45 and a twelve month high of $33.25.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On SM Energy

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the stock. State Street Corp lifted its position in SM Energy by 1.7% in the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 6,257,360 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $118,267,000 after acquiring an additional 107,295 shares during the last quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP lifted its position in SM Energy by 0.5% in the third quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 5,921,769 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $147,876,000 after acquiring an additional 30,951 shares during the last quarter. American Century Companies Inc. raised its holdings in shares of SM Energy by 8.9% in the third quarter. American Century Companies Inc. now owns 4,585,624 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $114,503,000 after buying an additional 375,754 shares during the last quarter. Westwood Holdings Group Inc. raised its holdings in shares of SM Energy by 16.3% in the second quarter. Westwood Holdings Group Inc. now owns 3,731,350 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $92,202,000 after buying an additional 524,105 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Millennium Management LLC raised its holdings in shares of SM Energy by 205.1% in the fourth quarter. Millennium Management LLC now owns 2,835,718 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $53,028,000 after buying an additional 1,906,255 shares during the last quarter. 94.56% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

SM Energy Increases Dividend

The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Monday, March 23rd. Investors of record on Monday, March 9th were given a $0.22 dividend. This represents a $0.88 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.8%. This is a boost from SM Energy's previous quarterly dividend of $0.20. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, March 9th. SM Energy's dividend payout ratio is presently 15.58%.

More SM Energy News

Here are the key news stories impacting SM Energy this week:

• Positive Sentiment: KeyCorp sharply raised EPS forecasts across 2026–2027 and reiterated an "Overweight" rating with a $39 price target — the firm lifted quarterly and full‑year estimates materially, implying stronger-than-expected cash generation and higher consensus earnings. KeyCorp raises estimates for SM Energy (MarketBeat)
• Positive Sentiment: Zacks highlights SM's history of earnings surprises and argues the company has the setup to beat again, which supports short-term upside as investors price in a repeat EPS outperformance. Will SM Energy (SM) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
• Positive Sentiment: Legislative tailwind: H.R.8034 (Protecting America’s Small Oil and Gas Producers and Rural Jobs Act) would relax depletion limits and expand eligibility for marginal wells — a change that could improve after‑tax cash flow for producers like SM if enacted. Policy timing and passage are uncertain, but the proposal is being tracked by markets. H.R. 8034: Protecting America’s Small Oil and Gas Producers and Rural Jobs Act
• Neutral Sentiment: Investor interest and momentum stories are increasing attention on SM (Zacks pieces on momentum and trending flows), which can amplify short-term moves but do not themselves change fundamentals. Here's Why SM Energy (SM) is a Strong Momentum Stock Here is What to Know Beyond Why SM Energy Company (SM) is a Trending Stock
• Negative Sentiment: Important caution: last reported quarter showed an EPS beat but revenue missed and revenue fell ~17% year‑over‑year — indicates operating volatility and sensitivity to commodity prices; investors should balance the bullish estimate revisions against top‑line weakness. (Company Q4 results and MarketBeat/Morning filings.)

About SM Energy

SM Energy Company NYSE: SM is an independent energy firm engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company focuses on identifying and exploiting unconventional onshore basins, leveraging advanced drilling and completion techniques to optimize resource recovery. SM Energy's operations are supported by an integrated approach to reservoir management and strategic midstream partnerships, enabling efficient transportation and marketing of hydrocarbons.

The company's core asset areas include prolific basins such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, and the Rocky Mountain region.

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