Mobileye Global NASDAQ: MBLY executives struck an upbeat tone on the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call, pointing to stronger-than-expected demand trends through the year, expanding engagement on next-generation ADAS programs, and what they described as rising momentum for robotaxi and robotics initiatives. Management also introduced several technology themes from its recent CES presentation, including new approaches to planning and scene understanding, and discussed the acquisition of humanoid robotics company Mentee Robotics.
2025 results: revenue up 15%, adjusted operating income up 45%
CEO Amnon Shashua said demand for Mobileye’s products “came in higher than expected throughout 2025” despite geopolitical uncertainty. CFO Moran Shemesh reported full-year 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, “slightly” above the high end of prior guidance and up 15% year over year. Shemesh attributed the upside to “a combination of minor upside in global production trends,” EyeQ program launches, and “higher-than-expected ADAS and SuperVision volumes from China OEMs.”
On profitability (non-GAAP), Shemesh said full-year adjusted operating income was $280 million, up 45% year over year, with a 15% margin—about 300 basis points higher than 2024. She noted the fourth quarter included a $7 million non-recurring expense tied to workforce efficiency initiatives, which was not included in guidance provided at the October earnings call.
Mobileye’s EyeQ volume for 2025 totaled 35.6 million units, above the original expectation of 32 million to 34 million. Shemesh described a “fairly consistent demand trend of nine million units per quarter,” with Q2 and Q3 above trend and Q1 and Q4 slightly below.
2026 outlook: flattish to 5% revenue growth, higher Q1 shipments
For 2026, Mobileye guided to revenue of $1.9 billion to $1.98 billion, which Shemesh characterized as “flattish to 5% growth.” The midpoint assumes EyeQ volume of “slightly above” 37 million units, including 10 million units shipped in Q1 and a reversion to “a bit over nine million per quarter” thereafter.
Shemesh said Q4 ended with very low inventory at Tier 1 customers as customers aimed to keep inventory lean. As a result, the company expects some “adjusting safety stock” in Q1. Mobileye’s Q1 unit outlook implies approximately 19% year-over-year growth in the first quarter, though management cautioned that Q1 levels are not expected to persist throughout the year.
Looking across its top 10 customers, Mobileye expects overall production to be down 2% in 2026, while Mobileye volume with those customers is projected to be up 6% at the midpoint. Guidance also includes about 700,000 units tied to a new OEM program that uses two EyeQ4 chips per car. Shemesh said this will generate higher gross profit dollars per vehicle, but the second chip is lower priced, pressuring overall average selling price and gross margin.
In China, Shemesh said the company is assuming a decline of about 500,000 units in 2026 from a base of a bit above 3 million units in 2025, citing limited short-term visibility into order flow even as the company remains encouraged by 2025 growth aligned with exports.
Margins and expenses: EyeQ5 cost headwinds, FX pressure, and Mentee R&D
Shemesh said gross margin is expected to decline year over year, driven by continued EyeQ5-related cost headwinds that Mobileye previously discussed as beginning in the second half of 2025 and continuing through 2026, with a gradual decline beginning in 2027. She also cited modest vehicle mix headwinds and the impact of the dual-chip EyeQ4 program.
Operating expenses for 2025 were $1.003 billion, slightly above an original budget of $995 million due to the Q4 non-recurring expense. For 2026, Mobileye expects OpEx of around $1.1 billion, or roughly 10% growth. Shemesh said underlying OpEx growth is approximately 5% from salary and benefits inflation and additional infrastructure to support advanced products, with incremental spending for Mentee R&D. She also cited a foreign exchange headwind from Israeli currency appreciation versus the U.S. dollar, which raises headcount costs in dollar terms; the workforce efficiency initiative partially offsets that impact.
On hedging, Shemesh said Mobileye is “more than 50% hedged” on payroll expenses for 2026 at a favorable rate, though the year-over-year impact remains meaningful given the scale of currency appreciation over the past year.
Product and technology updates: next-gen ADAS, planning simulation, fast/slow thinking
Shashua said the industry is clarifying the structure of next-generation ADAS for mass-market vehicles, driven by safety and convenience demand (including highway hands-off driving) and a push to consolidate technology onto a single ECU to keep system cost low. He highlighted Mobileye’s EyeQ6 High chip as “very well positioned,” and said the company won “the first two major programs with two of the biggest fixed OEMs in the world.”
Management also discussed a “fast-think, slow-think” architecture concept and artificial community intelligence (ACI). Shashua described ACI as a simulation-based, self-play reinforcement learning approach for training Mobileye’s planning engine, arguing that planning requires substantially more data than perception due to driving’s multi-agent nature. He said Mobileye’s simulators can achieve “one billion hours of training overnight,” and that Mobileye’s REM maps provide a baseline structure for training.
Separately, Shashua described “slow thinking” using vision-language models to interpret complex scenes (such as a police officer signaling a road is blocked), emphasizing that it is not necessarily safety-critical but improves semantic understanding. He said the architecture can reduce compute requirements and introduce cloud-based compute when needed, with potential benefits for intervention rates and eventual scalability of remote support.
Robotaxi and robotics: Volkswagen ecosystem, MOIA milestones, and Mentee acquisition
On autonomous mobility, Shashua said Waymo’s commercialization provided proof points for consumer acceptance and contributed to increased demand signals from transportation network companies and public transport groups. He said this led to an expansion of expected volume “through our Volkswagen ecosystem to 100,000 units by 2033.” He also pointed to an anticipated public milestone in 2026: the removal of safety drivers in MOIA’s robotaxi fleet.
In the Q&A, Mobileye said the initial deployment in 2027 is expected to start with “thousands of vehicles,” and suggested that a few hundred vehicles per city is a reasonable benchmark based on how Waymo has rolled out. Management also noted that Mobileye receives engineering budget coverage and delivers engineering samples ahead of commercialization, without detailing specific contract terms.
On advanced products such as SuperVision, executives said the Porsche and Audi SuperVision programs are now expected to start in Q1 2027, reflecting a shift from December 2026 to February 2027 that they characterized as not material. Management reiterated it does not expect meaningful volumes from those programs in 2026 and said it did not include Drive revenue in 2026 guidance.
Mobileye also discussed its acquisition of Mentee Robotics and described overlaps between autonomous driving and robotics, including computer vision, control, fast/slow thinking, vision-language models, and sim-to-real techniques. Shashua and other executives said Mentee’s differentiation includes vertical integration, demonstrations of autonomous operation without teleoperation, and an approach to continuous learning from passive human demonstrations. Management said Mentee is engaging with customers on pilots and proof-of-concept work, and projected “tens of units” for customer trials in 2026, more in 2027, and further expansion in 2028, with a manufacturing partner expected as production ramps.
About Mobileye Global NASDAQ: MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc NASDAQ: MBLY is a leader in the development of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies. Headquartered in Jerusalem, Israel, the company designs and supplies computer vision-based solutions that enable vehicles to detect and respond to road conditions, obstacles and signage. Mobileye's core offering centers on its proprietary EyeQ system-on-a-chip (SoC) family, which processes video streams from automotive cameras to deliver features such as lane-keeping assist, adaptive cruise control, collision prevention and traffic sign recognition.
Founded in 1999 by Prof.
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