Q3 Earnings Estimate for Progressive Issued By William Blair

Key Points

• William Blair has reduced its Q3 2025 earnings estimate for Progressive from $4.98 to $4.05 per share, while the consensus estimate for the current full-year earnings remains at $14.68 per share.
• Progressive reported Q3 earnings of $4.45 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $5.04, alongside revenues of $21.38 billion, below the expected $21.64 billion.
• The company recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, resulting in an annualized yield of 0.2%, with a payout ratio of 2.25%.

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR - Free Report) - Analysts at William Blair dropped their Q3 2025 earnings estimates for Progressive in a report issued on Wednesday, October 15th. William Blair analyst A. Klauber now expects that the insurance provider will earn $4.05 per share for the quarter, down from their prior forecast of $4.98. The consensus estimate for Progressive's current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. William Blair also issued estimates for Progressive's Q4 2025 earnings at $4.12 EPS, FY2025 earnings at $17.70 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $5.20 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $17.62 EPS.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, October 15th. The insurance provider reported $4.45 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $5.04 by ($0.59). The company had revenue of $21.38 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $21.64 billion. Progressive had a net margin of 12.57% and a return on equity of 33.88%. During the same quarter last year, the company earned $3.58 EPS.

A number of other research analysts also recently weighed in on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased their price objective on shares of Progressive from $301.00 to $303.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 9th. UBS Group lowered their price objective on shares of Progressive from $268.00 to $261.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, October 8th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "buy (b)" rating on shares of Progressive in a report on Wednesday, October 8th. Zacks Research cut shares of Progressive from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Friday, October 10th. Finally, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reduced their target price on shares of Progressive from $270.00 to $262.00 and set a "market perform" rating for the company in a report on Thursday. Seven investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and thirteen have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Progressive has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $276.96.

Progressive Stock Down 2.2%

Shares of Progressive stock opened at $221.60 on Friday. The company has a market cap of $129.90 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.16, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.25 and a beta of 0.32. The company's 50 day moving average is $244.15 and its 200 day moving average is $258.46. Progressive has a twelve month low of $217.20 and a twelve month high of $292.99. The company has a quick ratio of 0.31, a current ratio of 0.32 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19.

Progressive Dividend Announcement

The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Friday, October 10th. Stockholders of record on Thursday, October 2nd were paid a $0.10 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Thursday, October 2nd. This represents a $0.40 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.2%. Progressive's dividend payout ratio is 2.25%.

Insider Transactions at Progressive

In other news, insider Steven Broz sold 1,345 shares of the stock in a transaction on Friday, September 19th. The shares were sold at an average price of $242.10, for a total value of $325,624.50. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 30,388 shares of the company's stock, valued at $7,356,934.80. This represents a 4.24% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, CEO Susan Patricia Griffith sold 30,659 shares of the stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 2nd. The stock was sold at an average price of $246.06, for a total transaction of $7,543,953.54. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer directly owned 476,286 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $117,194,933.16. This trade represents a 6.05% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Over the last quarter, insiders sold 128,778 shares of company stock valued at $31,683,756. Company insiders own 0.34% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of Progressive

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the company. Vanguard Group Inc. grew its stake in Progressive by 0.9% during the second quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 54,516,288 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $14,548,217,000 after acquiring an additional 493,332 shares in the last quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its stake in Progressive by 2.0% during the second quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 15,513,188 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $4,128,055,000 after acquiring an additional 301,371 shares in the last quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. grew its stake in Progressive by 32.8% during the second quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. now owns 10,972,574 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $2,928,141,000 after acquiring an additional 2,709,417 shares in the last quarter. GQG Partners LLC grew its stake in Progressive by 61.4% during the first quarter. GQG Partners LLC now owns 8,346,133 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $2,362,039,000 after acquiring an additional 3,174,632 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Norges Bank purchased a new position in Progressive during the second quarter valued at $2,156,939,000. 85.34% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.

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