WEC Energy Group Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• WEC reported adjusted 2025 EPS of $5.27, up $0.39 year‑over‑year, driven by utility operations (weather helped ~ $0.35 and rate‑base growth ~$0.74) while excluding a one‑time proposed Illinois settlement charge of $0.46 per share that would resolve Rider QIP and uncollectible reconciliations.
• Management rolled out a five‑year capital plan of $37.5 billion to support forecasted large‑load growth of 3.9 GW—led by major data‑center projects (Microsoft adding ~500 MW; Vantage/Oracle/OpenAI ~1.3 GW in the near term)—and reiterated a long‑term EPS CAGR target of 7%–8% from 2026–2030.
• For 2026 WEC reaffirmed guidance of $5.51–$5.61 in adjusted EPS, expects $4–5 billion of debt funding plus $900M–$1.1B of equity issuance, and increased the annual dividend 6.7% to $3.81 (23rd consecutive year of growth).

WEC Energy Group NYSE: WEC reported full-year 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.27 per share, highlighting year-over-year growth, an expanded five-year capital plan tied to large-load demand, and progress on key regulatory matters in Wisconsin and Illinois during its fourth-quarter and year-end 2025 earnings call.

2025 results and key earnings drivers

President and CEO Scott Lauber said the company delivered “another year of solid results” across customer satisfaction, financial performance, and execution of its capital plan. Chief Financial Officer Xia Liu reported that adjusted 2025 earnings of $5.27 per share increased $0.39 from 2024 on an adjusted basis.

Management emphasized that adjusted results excluded a one-time charge of $0.46 per share related to a proposed Illinois settlement. Lauber said the settlement is expected to fully resolve open reconciliation dockets tied to Rider QIP spending from 2017 through the rider’s sunset in 2023, as well as open reconciliations for the uncollectible rider for 2019 through 2023.

Liu broke down the year-over-year earnings change, noting that utility operations were the primary driver. Adjusted utility earnings increased $0.63 per share versus 2024, including:

• Weather: approximately $0.35 favorable versus last year. Compared with normal conditions, management estimated a $0.10 favorable impact in 2025 versus a $0.25 unfavorable impact in 2024.
• Rate-base growth: a $0.74 per-share benefit, largely driven by Wisconsin rate review outcomes effective January 1, 2025, plus $0.12 of incremental AFUDC equity from projects under construction.
• Offsets: $0.46 per share of headwinds from higher depreciation and amortization, day-to-day O&M, and tax and other items.

Outside the utility segment, the company cited a $0.02 per-share increase from its investment in American Transmission Company, driven by a $0.06 benefit from continued capital investment, partially offset by a one-time gain recognized in 2024. The energy infrastructure segment contributed a $0.10 per-share increase tied to higher production tax credits associated with solar acquisitions completed in late 2024 and early 2025. Corporate and other results swung by $0.24 per share, driven by higher interest expense from higher debt balances, gains from early debt retirements recorded in 2024, and other items.

Sales outlook and data center-driven demand growth

On sales, Liu said that for 2025, retail electric deliveries in Wisconsin excluding the iron ore mine rose 1.1% year over year, with results “slightly ahead” of the company’s forecast in each segment. For 2026, management is projecting weather-normal retail electric sales in Wisconsin to grow 1.6% versus 2025, with the large commercial and industrial segment expected to increase 5.8%, fueled by forecast data center load.

Lauber described a series of regional economic development announcements driving increased load forecasts and incremental capital needs, led by large-scale data center projects.

Microsoft’s data center complex in the I-94 corridor was highlighted as a major source of incremental demand. Lauber said Microsoft has purchased more than 2,000 acres to date and that energy is already flowing to the site, with the first phase expected to go online this year. He added that Microsoft received local approval to expand with 15 additional data center buildings, prompting WEC to add 500 MW of customer demand to its forecast. Management said this 500 MW increase translates into an estimated $1 billion of incremental capital added to the company’s plan, raising forecasted demand in the I-94 corridor to 2.6 GW through 2030.

To the north of Milwaukee, Lauber pointed to the Vantage Data Centers development supporting Oracle and OpenAI, noting that Vantage broke ground in December on an initial 670-acre phase and has stated it expects to invest $15 billion to complete that phase in 2028. The first facility could come online late next year, management said. WEC currently has 1.3 GW of demand for the Vantage site in its forecast over the next five years, with the longer-term potential to reach 3.5 GW of demand over time.

Lauber also cited other business investments, including Foxconn’s plans to renovate and expand its Racine County campus to focus on manufacturing data center components (more than $500 million in expected investment and more than 1,300 jobs), Rockwell Automation’s plans for a new manufacturing site in southeastern Wisconsin, and additional expansion by Uline.

Summarizing its five-year view, management said it is projecting a total of 3.9 GW of electric demand growth in its plan (2.6 GW in the I-94 corridor and 1.3 GW north of Milwaukee).

Capital plan and long-term growth targets

Lauber said the company is focused on executing an updated $37.5 billion capital plan over the next five years. He reiterated a long-term earnings-per-share compound annual growth rate target of 7% to 8% from 2026 through 2030, based on the midpoint of 2025 adjusted guidance, and said growth is expected to accelerate to the upper half of the range beginning in 2028 as more projects are placed in service.

Management outlined major investment categories, including:

• Natural gas generation and LNG storage: $7.4 billion of expected investment from 2026 to 2030, including combustion turbines, RICE units, and upgrades to existing facilities.
• Renewables and storage: $12.6 billion over five years to add 6,500 MW, with seven renewable projects and two battery storage facilities under construction, including two solar facilities expected to come online later this year.

Lauber said construction is well underway on a five-unit, 1,100-MW combustion turbine project at Oak Creek, and that the company broke ground in the fourth quarter on a 2 Bcf LNG facility and a seven-unit Paris RICE generation site.

Regulatory updates in Wisconsin and Illinois

In Wisconsin, Lauber said the company’s proposed Very Large Customer (VLC) tariff remains under review at the Public Service Commission. Staff and intervener testimony was submitted in January, with a commission order expected in early May so customers can take service under the tariff in June. Management described the tariff as designed to meet very large load customer needs while protecting other customers and investors, emphasizing transparency around cost allocation.

Lauber also said the company plans to file Wisconsin rate reviews in April for forward-looking test years 2027 and 2028.

In Illinois, management discussed the proposed settlement with the Illinois Attorney General involving Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas. Lauber said the settlement, if approved by the Illinois Commerce Commission, would resolve issues tied to 12 pending cases representing approximately $2.3 billion of open dockets, including Rider QIP reconciliations from 2017 through 2023 and uncollectible rider cases from 2019 through 2023. The proposed terms include a $130 million rate-base reduction (prospective with new rates in the pending Peoples Gas case) and $125 million of customer credits over three years. During Q&A, management clarified that the customer credits include approximately $50 million in the first year, with the remaining $75 million split evenly over the following two years. The company said it anticipated requesting commission approval “in the coming weeks.”

Separately, Lauber said the company filed an Illinois rate request in early January for test year 2027, driven in part by support for the Chicago pipe retirement program, with the commission’s review expected to last 11 months and new rates starting January 1, 2027.

Guidance, financing plans, and dividend increase

For 2026, Liu reaffirmed adjusted earnings guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share, assuming normal weather for the rest of the year. For the first quarter of 2026, management projected earnings in the range of $2.27 to $2.37 per share, incorporating January weather and assuming normal weather for the remainder of the quarter.

On financing, Liu said WEC expects 2026 debt funding of $4 billion to $5 billion, including refinancing of $1.4 billion of senior notes maturing this year. The company also expects to issue $900 million to $1.1 billion of common equity in 2026 through its at-the-market program, dividend reinvestment plan, and employee benefit plans. Liu added that the company expects incremental capital to be funded with 50% equity content, including the incremental $1 billion tied to Microsoft-related investment, which management said is projected for 2029 and beyond and is not expected to impact near-term funding plans. Liu also noted that approximately $800 million of common equity was issued in 2025, consistent with plan, and that the company has remaining capacity for hybrid financing after issuing $600 million the prior year.

Lauber also said the board increased the dividend by 6.7% to an annualized $3.81 per share, marking the company’s 23rd consecutive year of dividend growth. He said the increase was consistent with WEC’s policy of paying out 65% to 70% of earnings in dividends.

About WEC Energy Group NYSE: WEC

WEC Energy Group is a Milwaukee, Wisconsin–based regulated energy holding company whose primary businesses are the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity and the distribution of natural gas. The company operates through a set of utility subsidiaries that provide bundled energy service, customer billing and energy-related programs to residential, commercial and industrial customers. As a regulated utility group, WEC's operations focus on delivering reliable service while managing infrastructure investment and compliance with state and federal utility regulation.

Its utility subsidiaries include well-known regional operators such as We Energies and Wisconsin Public Service, along with Chicago-area natural gas utilities that were part of the Integrys Energy Group acquisition.

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