What is Roth Capital's Forecast for Progressive Q4 Earnings?

Key Points

• Roth Capital has revised its Q4 2025 earnings estimate for Progressive Corporation down from $4.18 to $3.90 per share, reflecting a bearish outlook.
• Progressive recently announced a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, resulting in an annualized yield of 0.2%.
• As of now, Progressive holds a Moderate Buy rating with an average target price of $284.18 among analysts.

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR - Free Report) - Research analysts at Roth Capital dropped their Q4 2025 earnings estimates for Progressive in a research report issued on Thursday, August 21st. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now expects that the insurance provider will post earnings per share of $3.90 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $4.18. The consensus estimate for Progressive's current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Progressive's Q1 2026 earnings at $3.89 EPS and Q2 2026 earnings at $3.89 EPS.

PGR has been the subject of a number of other research reports. Wall Street Zen lowered Progressive from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Friday, July 18th. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Progressive to a "hold" rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 13th. Wells Fargo & Company decreased their price target on shares of Progressive from $330.00 to $327.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday. Evercore ISI lowered shares of Progressive from an "outperform" rating to an "in-line" rating and set a $275.00 price target on the stock. in a report on Thursday, July 17th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets dropped their price objective on shares of Progressive from $281.00 to $279.00 and set an "outperform" rating for the company in a research note on Thursday. Nine investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and nine have given a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $284.18.

Progressive Stock Down 0.0%

PGR stock opened at $248.9370 on Monday. The business's 50-day simple moving average is $251.40 and its 200 day simple moving average is $266.54. The company has a quick ratio of 0.31, a current ratio of 0.31 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21. The company has a market cap of $145.93 billion, a PE ratio of 14.02, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.45 and a beta of 0.33. Progressive has a twelve month low of $228.54 and a twelve month high of $292.99.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, July 16th. The insurance provider reported $4.88 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $4.43 by $0.45. Progressive had a net margin of 12.66% and a return on equity of 35.37%. The company had revenue of $20.08 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $20.39 billion. During the same period last year, the business posted $2.48 EPS. The business's quarterly revenue was up 12.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in PGR. Highline Wealth Partners LLC raised its stake in shares of Progressive by 114.0% in the first quarter. Highline Wealth Partners LLC now owns 92 shares of the insurance provider's stock worth $26,000 after acquiring an additional 49 shares during the last quarter. TruNorth Capital Management LLC increased its holdings in shares of Progressive by 210.0% in the first quarter. TruNorth Capital Management LLC now owns 93 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $26,000 after purchasing an additional 63 shares in the last quarter. Minot DeBlois Advisors LLC bought a new position in Progressive in the 4th quarter worth approximately $28,000. HWG Holdings LP acquired a new position in Progressive during the 1st quarter worth $28,000. Finally, Garde Capital Inc. bought a new position in Progressive in the 1st quarter valued at $33,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 85.34% of the company's stock.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, CFO John P. Sauerland sold 16,664 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, July 28th. The stock was sold at an average price of $249.24, for a total transaction of $4,153,335.36. Following the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 228,024 shares in the company, valued at $56,832,701.76. This represents a 6.81% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website. Also, CEO Susan Patricia Griffith sold 30,660 shares of Progressive stock in a transaction on Monday, July 28th. The shares were sold at an average price of $242.12, for a total value of $7,423,399.20. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 506,945 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $122,741,523.40. The trade was a 5.70% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders sold 108,556 shares of company stock worth $27,306,166 over the last ninety days. 0.33% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Progressive Announces Dividend

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, October 10th. Stockholders of record on Thursday, October 2nd will be paid a $0.10 dividend. This represents a $0.40 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.2%. Progressive's dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 2.25%.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.

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