Century Aluminum: A Premier Stock for the Industrial Resurgence

Key Points

• Supportive U.S. trade policy directly boosts domestic aluminum prices and drives significant profitability for the company.
• A landmark investment to restart its South Carolina smelter will significantly increase U.S. production and future revenue capacity.
• A stronger financial foundation and a consensus buy rating from market analysts underscore the positive outlook for the stock.

A powerful shift in U.S. industrial sector policy is creating a uniquely profitable environment for domestic manufacturers, and few companies are as directly positioned to benefit as Century Aluminum NASDAQ: CENX. The company’s stock has gained over 60% in the last year, signaling that investors are taking note of its unique strategic advantages.

While the global aluminum market remains cyclical, multiple favorable factors in Century Aluminum’s home market have put the company in an enviable position. For investors seeking direct exposure to the American onshoring trend, Century Aluminum presents a compelling set of catalysts that translate directly to its bottom line and growth plans.

The One-Two Punch: Soaring Premiums and a Smelter Restart

The primary catalyst driving Century’s current success is a fundamental change in its pricing environment, brought on by U.S. trade policy. In June 2025, Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports were increased to 50%. This move makes foreign metal significantly more expensive, providing a substantial advantage to domestic producers who can sell their products without this levy.

This policy has directly and sequentially impacted a key component of Century's revenue: the U.S. Midwest premium. This premium functions as a regional delivery surcharge on top of the global aluminum price, and with foreign supply now more costly, it has surged.

The financial impact of this is visible in the company's guidance. For the third quarter of 2025, Century issued an optimistic forecast for Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $115 million to $125 million. Management explicitly linked this strong earnings projection to the benefits of higher domestic premiums, offering clear evidence of the policy's effect on profitability.

Century is actively reinvesting to meet the growing demand for domestically sourced aluminum. This is especially critical for national security, as high-purity primary aluminum is an essential, unsubstitutable input for military aircraft and advanced defense systems.

In a direct response to the favorable market, the company announced an approximate $50 million investment in August to restart the remaining idled capacity at its Mt. Holly, South Carolina, smelter. This project is set to achieve several key objectives:

• Bring the plant to full production by mid-2026 for the first time since 2015.
• Create over 100 new, high-wage manufacturing jobs, with an estimated annual economic impact of over $890 million in the state.
• Increase total U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10%.

This strategic move, which increases the company's future revenue-generating capacity, demonstrates how Century is converting a favorable policy environment into tangible, long-term growth.

How Century Is De-Risking Growth

A compelling growth story requires a solid financial foundation, and Century's management has taken decisive steps to strengthen its balance sheet. In July 2025, the company successfully refinanced $400 million of its senior notes.

For investors, this move achieves two important goals: it lowers annual interest payments, which directly benefits net income, and it extends the company's debt maturity out to 2032, providing significant financial flexibility and reducing near-term risk.

This financial stability supports an ambitious long-term vision. Century is advancing a plan to build a new, low-emission U.S. smelter, a project selected for up to $500 million in potential funding from the Department of Energy. If realized, this would be a transformational development.

It would not only represent the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years. Still, it would also position Century as a leader in producing modern, low-carbon green aluminum, a product commanding a premium from customers in the automotive and renewable energy sectors.

Financial professionals also share this positive outlook. Century Aluminum’s analyst community holds a consensus Buy rating on the company’s stock. Following the recent positive developments, B. Riley raised its price target to $25, while Wolfe Research holds an Outperform rating with a $27 target.

With a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of approximately 8.14, the stock appears attractively valued, as this metric suggests its price is low relative to strong projected earnings growth.

This contrasts with competitors who have not been as quick to announce domestic restarts, positioning Century as the market's preferred vehicle for this type of investment into the sector.

A Strategic Position for a New Industrial Era

Century Aluminum offers a clear and direct thesis to investors. It is a story of a domestic company benefiting from a powerful policy tailwind, and management is executing a clear strategy to turn that opportunity into real production growth and profitability.

Surging domestic premiums, a landmark investment in the Mt. Holly smelter, and a fortified balance sheet combine to create powerful catalysts.

While the aluminum market will always have its cycles, Century Aluminum's strategic position as a pure-play U.S. producer is unmatched in the current environment. The company presents a distinct and compelling case for those looking to invest in the tangible resurgence of American industry.