Eli Lilly Nails Oral GLP-1 Trial—Here’s What It Means for LLY

Key Points

• Eli Lilly gained nearly $100 billion in market capitalization in one day after its latest GLP-1 results came out.
• The diabetes results for Eli Lilly's drug were strong compared to Novo Nordisk's already approved oral treatment.
• If its treatment is approved, providing a solution for needle-sensitive patients could mean big things for Eli Lilly.

The world’s largest pharmaceutical stock, Eli Lilly and Company NYSE: LLY, is back in the green in 2025 as of the Apr. 21 close. Shares were down moderately in 2025 through mid-April. However, huge news came out regarding one of the company’s experimental drugs, causing shares to spike by over 14%.

That drug is orforglipron, Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 drug that patients administer orally rather than through an injectable pen. The results of orforglipron’s Phase 3 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) trial greatly impressed investors.

Ultimately, investors increased Eli Lilly's market capitalization by around $95 billion in one day after these results. This analysis will break down what these results mean for Eli Lilly’s positioning in the red-hot GLP-1 market.

Oral GLP-1s: Eli Lilly’s Next Big Revenue Stream?

Creating a safe and efficacious oral GLP-1 is a key battleground among companies making diabetes and obesity medications. This is because many patients would prefer not to use injectables. They are significantly more difficult to administer than pills, and many patients fear needles. One study found that around 14% of people between the ages of 35 and 44 had a fear of needles. For people between the ages of 45 and 54, that number increased to 24%. This is significant, considering that data from Blue Cross Blue Shield found that over 63% of GLP-1 patients from 2014 to 2023 were in this age group. Additionally, women, who are more likely to have a fear of needles than men, represented 80% of the patients in this data set.

Thus, developing an oral GLP-1 medication could significantly increase adoption among women over the age of 35, likely the largest GLP-1 patient group. This provides a potentially huge revenue stream for a company that gets an oral GLP-1 approved. Oral medications are also expected to be much less expensive to manufacture than injectable pens. This could enable a higher-margin product line.

Based on the latest results, orforglipron has a better profile than the only approved oral GLP-1 medication. As a result, investors are becoming more hopeful that Lilly can capture a large part of the oral GLP-1 market. This includes the type 2 diabetes market and the obesity market, as Lilly is looking to get orforglipron approved for both diseases. Below are the details on how orforglipron is compared to Rybelsus, the only oral GLP-1 approved for treating diabetes.

Orforglipron Results: Weight Loss Trumps Novo’s Rybelsus by a Wide Margin

The results Lilly recently released tested orforglipron on patients with type 2 diabetes. Compared to Novo Nordisk’s A/S NYSE: NVO Rybelsus, orforglipron appears to have multiple advantages.

First off, orforglipron doesn’t come with any eating or drinking restrictions. Meanwhile, there is a litany of foods that Rybelsus patients need to avoid, and they can’t eat or drink for 30 minutes prior to administration. Additionally, efficacy results for orforglipron were impressive. Over 40 weeks, orforglipron patients saw their A1C levels drop by 1.3% to 1.6%, depending on the dosage. This is greater than the 1.2% and 1.4% drops seen in Rybelsus patients. However, these numbers came at 30 weeks.

The decidedly larger victory came in weight loss. Rybelsus patients lost between 2.5% and 4.1% of their body weight on average. However, orforglipron patients lost around twice as much, at between 4.7% and 7.9% of their weight. Side effect rates were higher in orforglipron patients, but were consistent with injectable GLP-1s. Additionally, Lilly saw no signs of liver-related safety issues.

This is particularly important, considering that Pfizer NYSE: PFE recently discontinued its oral GLP-1 treatment because of these issues. Rybelsus has been a big seller, generating around $3.4 billion in revenue last year. For reference, this is equal to around 7.5% of Lilly’s total revenues in fiscal 2024. This demonstrates the huge revenue driver Lilly could have through orforglipron if the drug gets approved. Given these trial results, Lilly could make this happen.

Lilly Looks Increasingly Like the Strongest Name in GLP-1s

All in all, these results are another feather in Eli Lilly's cap when it comes to the diabetes and obesity market. They signal that Lilly could gain big-time market share in both these markets among patients who prefer oral administration. This is especially true for obesity, for which the FDA has yet to approve an oral GLP-1 treatment. Orforglipron results for patients with obesity are set to come out in Q3. 

Strong results could mean another big up move in Eli Lilly's shares. Overall, Lilly continues to look like the strongest player in the GLP-1 arms race.