Palo Alto Networks Uptrend Confirmed! New Highs Set by Year’s End

Key Points

• Palo Alto Networks' F2025 results were better than expected, guidance is robust, and the uptrend is intact.
• Robust cash flow is driving rapid increases in shareholder value that underpin the trend in share price.
• Analysts' trends forecast this stock doubling to nearly tripling over the coming years.

Palo Alto Networks’ NASDAQ: PANW FQ4 release affirmed the market outlook for cybersecurity and its leading position in the industry. The shift to platformization drives growth, margin, outperformance and accelerates business momentum.

Unifying security protocols across the enterprise saves businesses money by reducing the number and cost of adverse incidents and improving internal efficiency, while doing the same for Palo Alto. 

The takeaway for investors is that the robust business continues to perform at the highest levels, qualifying as a Rule-of-50 company (a measure of high-quality, profitable growth) for the fifth consecutive year and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

The net result is that shareholder value is growing at a double-digit pace and underpinning the uptrend in share prices. Details from the balance sheet highlight the strength, including increased cash, current, and total assets, low leverage, and a 50% increase in shareholder equity. 

AI Drives Growth for Palo Alto Networks

Demand for Palo Alto’s AI-enabled Next-Generation Security drove results in Q4. The company reported a 15.4% YOY increase in revenue to outpace the consensus estimate by a slim margin on a 32% increase in Next-Gen ARR.

Segmentally, Product sales led with a 19% gain, up 27% sequentially, and were offset by a slightly slower 14.8% increase in Subscriptions.

RPO, another leading indicator of business, was also positive, accelerating to 24%, and is expected to remain strong in the upcoming quarters. 

The margin news is also good. The company’s improving operational quality and growing revenue leverage led to a significant improvement in the margin. The adjusted net income grew at an accelerated 28% pace, leaving EPS up 25% and 6 cents better than expected, 670 basis points above MarketBeat’s reported consensus.

More importantly, the strengths are expected to continue and are reflected in the guidance. 

Palo Alto is guiding for FQ1 and full-year 2026 revenue and earnings in a range above the consensus. The target for 2026 earnings is $3.80 at its midpoint, 12 cents more than expected, and is likely a cautious estimate due to the accelerating business trends. 

Analysts Forecast Significant Upside for PANW: Trends Are Bullish

While no analysts issued revisions or updates within the first 12 hours of the report, the sentiment trends are positive and are unlikely to be changed by the news. The more likely scenario is that the bullish trends will be affirmed or strengthened, including upgrades and price target increases.

Until then, the group rates this stock as a Moderate Buy with potential for a 25% upside at consensus relative to the prerelease closing price. There is a bullish bias to the sentiment; 65% of the 40 analysts tracked rate it as a Buy, and the price target trend is positive, leading to the high end range. 

The high-end range is significant for investors because the bar was raised in August. Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their target to $495, well above the previous high-end. The new target forecasts this stock to advance by more than 180%, and it is not unreasonable to think it can reach that level. 

The forecasts and valuation metrics put this stock at only 13x its 2035 earnings estimates. A move aligning this stock with blue-chip tech peers could be worth a minimum of 130%, and the forecast is likely to be low. 

The Technical Outlook: Palo Alto Networks Uptrend is Intact

Palo Alto Networks’ stock price corrected in early Q3, aligning with a spike in institutional selling. However, the market has confirmed the uptrend with a 5% pre-market share price increase that reveals support at a higher level.

The move put the market above all three moving averages, suggesting a significant shift in market dynamics. The likely outcome is that PANW shares will continue to move higher and will possibly set a new high before the end of 2025.