TSLA Earnings Week: Can Tesla Break Through $350?

Key Points

• Since April, Tesla shares have increased more than 50% and tightened into a breakout pattern.
• This week’s earnings report will significantly test the company’s and stock’s resolve. 
• Considering the MACD flipped bullish, $350–$370 could easily come into play if the results are promising. 

Shares of Tesla Inc NASDAQ: TSLA have been rallying hard since April’s low, gaining more than 50% in that timeframe. A 3% pop last Friday added to the momentum, and the chart is showing signs of an explosive move in the near term. After a multi-month stretch of tightening consolidation, Tesla is now coiled in a bullish pennant formation that looks ready to come to a head as the automotive giant heads into arguably its most important earnings report of the year.

The “test” for Tesla isn’t just what gets reported this Wednesday; it’s whether the stock can find the momentum to punch through resistance. With both the bulls and the bears drawing their battle lines, this week’s report could be the catalyst defining the rest of Tesla’s year. 

Bullish Chart & MACD Crossover Signal Potential Tesla Breakout to $350–$370

The good news for those of us on the sidelines is that Tesla’s chart looks bullish going into the report. Since April, there has been a clear pattern of higher lows, as the bears have been unable to check the upward progress. 

At the same time, there have been some lower highs, which may be to Tesla’s advantage. The narrowing range they’ve formed has created a textbook pennant formation, and as the company approaches its earnings, the pattern is nearing its apex. 

A bullish MACD crossover late last week supports the thesis that momentum is building on the bull’s side, and a strong earnings report could be just the ticket to send shares breaking out to the north. If that happens, the $350–$370 zone is very much in play. A move through that level would confirm the uptrend isn’t just intact, it’s gaining strength.

Tesla Forecasts Revenue & Earnings Decline, Yet Stock Poised for Upside Surprise

Tesla is forecast to report a year-over-year drop in revenue and earnings, with vehicle deliveries already confirmed to be down meaningfully from last year. This is reflected in how many on Wall Street have taken a cautious stance, but it also sets the stock up nicely for an upside surprise.

Tesla has missed on earnings more often than not in recent quarters, and most recent EPS revisions have been to the downside. Recent ratings lean more towards Hold or Sell, rather than Buy, which makes Tesla a dangerous stock to bet against. Don’t forget that the company delivered a massive miss on the headline numbers in April’s report, then went on to rally more than 60% almost unchecked.   

AI Roadmap & Robotaxi Buzz Could Spark Tesla’s Next Rally

Additional fuel for the rally might come in the form of fresh updates from CEO Elon Musk on Tesla’s AI roadmap, including the integration of its Grok chatbot into the Optimus humanoid robot and potentially even into Tesla vehicles themselves.

There’s also been the much-hyped robotaxi launch, and comments around that could easily become the main story, with investors watching for any updates about additional monetization potential or the regulatory progress. If Wednesday’s update were to add clarity to the company’s multiple ambitions, it should be enough to kick off the next leg of the rally.

Frothy P/E Meets Bullish MACD Crossover: Is Tesla Poised for a Breakout?

It’s worth noting, though, that Tesla’s P/E ratio sits near 180, frothy by any definition, especially with profit and revenue expected to decline year over year. However, the bulls will argue that Tesla is no longer just an EV company but an AI and energy infrastructure play with massive potential. To sustain that narrative, though, Tesla must prove it can deliver meaningful innovation and execution, especially in a tougher macro and competitive environment.

For now, though, the bulls have the momentum, and the chart looks healthy. Last week’s bullish crossover of the MACD might well have been the best signal yet that the tightening pennant will be broken by the stock breaking out to the north.