Why a Trump-Musk Feud Could Mean Big Wins for AST SpaceMobile

Key Points

• A highly publicized dispute between Elon Musk and Donald Trump in June has led investors to speculate about the potential benefits to rivals of Musk's companies.
• Space-based broadband service provider AST SpaceMobile shares jumped following the back-and-forth, with investors speculating that the potential loss of federal contracts for Musk's Starlink could benefit its publicly traded rival.
• Regardless of how the Musk-Trump feud develops, AST SpaceMobile has a number of attractive features for investors on its own.

In mid-June 2025, space-based cellular broadband provider AST SpaceMobile Inc. NASDAQ: ASTS reached its highest share price in nearly 10 months, with analysts viewing the stock optimistically and calling for nearly 19% further upside potential.

But a five-day return of more than 38% could scare many investors off unless there's reason to believe it could be part of a longer-term rally. 

The major boost to ASTS stock coincided with a highly publicized dispute between President Trump and Elon Musk. Though this feud is not the sole reason ASTS shares have skyrocketed in recent weeks, it is likely the primary driver of this performance.

Ultimately, much of the rally aligning with the Trump-Musk back-and-forth probably stems from speculation. Nonetheless, it reveals some critical considerations investors should make about AST SpaceMobile and the rapidly evolving landscape of space companies.

Feud Casts Doubt on Starlink

AST SpaceMobile has experienced striking growth in recent months, surging by nearly 262% in the last year. However, a lingering thorn in its side is Starlink, the satellite internet service provider subsidiary of Musk's aerospace company SpaceX. 

Starlink's threats to AST became more significant after last November's election and Musk's close relationship with Trump. Indeed, reports indicated that Starlink began to expand its reach across federal government agencies early into the new Trump administration.

Investors in AST and other publicly traded competitors may have worried that Musk's partnership with Trump could result in a monopoly for Starlink. With an estimated two-thirds of internet satellites in orbit being represented by Starlink after the election, this risk appeared likely only to grow.

An issue for other satellite-based providers is that there is finite orbital capacity, meaning that once a certain number of satellites are in place at particular orbits, it is difficult or impossible for others to be added. Starlink's early advantage still has the potential to crowd out other companies from getting infrastructure in place, despite AST's moves to rapidly launch a growing number of its own satellites.

However, the recent rift between Musk and Trump may have threatened Starlink's advantage. Trump responded to Musk's criticism of the former's signature proposed spending bill by floating the idea of canceling federal contracts held by Musk's companies, presumably including SpaceX.

Musk also signaled his willingness to pull back from prior partnerships by suggesting that SpaceX would discontinue the Dragon spacecraft previously used for International Space Station missions, although he later retracted that statement.

Potential Impact for AST SpaceMobile

While investor response to the public dispute arising between Musk and Trump is speculative, the boost has so far been priced into ASTS shares. This adds to a series of positive developments for AST SpaceMobile, making it an increasingly attractive prospect for many buyers.

The firm has made significant progress in building out its infrastructure, both in terms of satellite launches over recent months and in a series of lucrative, high-profile partnerships with existing telecommunications providers. The company has also recently secured important agreements with multiple government agencies, independently of any developments related to Musk and Starlink. 

A coordination agreement with the U.S. National Science Foundation and a $43-million new contract award in support of the United States Space Development Agency are prime examples.

Another key development for AST is its shift toward commercialization. In its first-quarter earnings, the company said it expects to activate initial cellular broadband capabilities across multiple continents in the coming quarters thanks to partnerships with telecommunications companies in the United States, Europe, and Japan. 

This is forecast to lead to revenue opportunities of between $50 million and $75 million in the second half of 2025.

AST Remains Attractive, Despite Starlink Uncertainty

Investors will likely have a hard time predicting whether a blossoming feud between Trump and Musk continues to develop or fade away, and it will be even harder to decipher the potential impacts for Starlink and its competitors. 

However, AST is an attractive prospect on its own, regardless of these external factors, and is worth investor attention as it continues to expand its reach into a massive addressable market.