Snowflake’s Risk/Reward Profile Is Too Good To Miss

Key Points

• Shares of Snowflake are trading close to all-time lows. 
• This is despite the fact they bet analyst earnings last week and grew revenue by 30% year on year.
• Several analysts are calling for an upside of as much as 70% from current levels.

While many stocks are back at or close to their all-time highs, some, like Snowflake Inc. NYSE: SNOW, remain a long way away. The data storage giant is one of those tech companies that IPO’d during the pandemic when rates were super low and skyrocketed immediately. 

However, a quick look at its long-term chart tells you everything and the Montana-headquartered stock has been on the back foot since 2021. Even a solid end-of-year rally through this past February didn’t last long, with Snowflake shares down 50% since then. Indeed, they even went so far as to hit an all-time low earlier this month during the broader market selloff. 

But with the Fed having announced it’s time to start cutting rates once again and with the S&P 500 less than 1% away from a fresh record, could now be the right time to be brave with Snowflake? There are a few reasons to think so - let’s jump into them.

Snowflake: Outperforming Fundamentals

First up is the company’s fundamental performance. Last week, they released their Q2 earnings report, and it topped analyst expectations for both headline numbers. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $0.18, more than 12% higher than the forecasted $0.16, while revenue was also hot and showed year-on-year growth of 29%. The number of customers paying more than $1 million annually for the product is continuing to grow, while Snowflake can now also say that they have 736 of the Forbes Global 2000 list as paying merchants. 

On the face of it, this was a good report, especially for a beaten-down stock that’s trying to convince investors that it has what it takes to get back to the big leagues. There were some question marks about the continuing slide in the Company’s net retention rate, but this is a trend that’s been in place for some time and is part of dealing with a maturing field of competitors. Regardless, at 127%, it’s still impressive in its own right. 

Bullish Price Targets for Snowflake Stock

While Snowflake shares actually fell in the wake of last week’s report, it went against the grain of all the analysts who came out calling the stock a screaming buy. Needham & Company, for example, reiterated their Buy rating on Snowflake stock and gave it a price target of $160. The team at Morgan Stanley did the same, only with a $175 price target, while Canaccord Genuity Group went with $190. Considering Snowflake closed out Monday’s session for less than $120, these are all targeting an upside of between 30% and 70%. 

It has to be noted that many of these are still bullish; price targets were reduced from, say, $210, with Morgan Stanley commenting that the “results were good, but perhaps not good enough” to justify the originals.

Still, even if that is the case, Snowflake could be considered seriously undervalued at these levels.

Investing in Snowflake: Key Considerations

Beyond the decent fundamental performance and the optimistic analyst price targets, those of us considering getting involved also have the technical setup to consider. At current levels, Snowflake is trading right along its long-term support line. This is where the bears ran out of steam during 2022’s 70% drop, and it was 2023’s low, too. It will be a worry that the stock actually opened below it for a new low earlier this month, but to be fair, that was during the overall market’s worst day in years, and Snowflake rallied up out of that level immediately. 

Investors with the right kind of risk tolerance could find this setup highly attractive. Snowflake is a tech stock that’s outperforming analyst expectations for its earnings, has multiple price targets calling for as much as a 70% rally, and is trading along its long-term support line. As risk/reward profiles go, it doesn’t get a whole lot better than this.