Telecom Earnings Reveal a Sector That Finally Looks Healthier

Key Points

• AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon all grew EPS year over year in Q2 and boosted shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, signaling improved retention economics across the telecom sector.
• AT&T shares rose on strong subscriber growth and low churn from its convergence strategy, while Verizon posted a major subscriber beat and raised its full-year guidance.
• T-Mobile shares fell despite an EPS beat, as slowing postpaid net account additions and weak Q3 guidance tied to price hikes overshadowed otherwise solid earnings growth.

Three telecom giants reported Q2 earnings over three days, and now that the market has had time to digest, a theme is emerging in the sector.

One positive trend from the trio of reports last week is that telecommunications companies are no longer paying up for growth through promotions or subsidization. All three companies grew earnings per share (EPS) year over year (YOY) in Q2, indicating stronger retention economics and subscriber growth. Additionally, all three increased shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, a signal to the market that management thinks it's sitting on a cheap stock.

To choose a winner from Q2, we’ll need to break down the earnings reports in greater detail. Despite earnings, subscriber, and cash flow growth, not every stock responded the same way after its release. The sector as a whole might be its healthiest in years, but not every carrier is capturing upside in the same way.

AT&T: Q2 Metrics Show Convergence Thesis Unlocking New Growth Opportunities

Shares of AT&T Inc. NYSE: T popped more than 3% following its July 22 earnings release, driven by rapid growth and low churn as its services converge. In its Q2 2026 results, the company reported a clear EPS beat and a slight revenue miss, but the underlying numbers are the true driver of the reaction. AT&T added 432,000 postpaid phone subscribers and 646,000 internet subscribers, with more than 147,000 being new accounts, not just extra lines. Home internet service is a key area, with revenue growing 27% year-over-year (YOY), and management expects fiber internet to reach more than 40 million households by the end of the year.

Another bullish beacon is the impressively low churn rates in Q2 despite carrier price increases. Postpaid wireless churn declined to 0.86% YOY, indicating that fewer than 1% of customers cancel their plans each month. Additionally, 42% of home internet customers now subscribe to AT&T wireless, supporting the ‘convergence’ thesis of selling wireless and internet services to the same households. The Q2 metrics show that this strategy is not only driving growth and earnings but also decreasing churn rates.

Management reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance of $2.25 to $2.35 and free cash flow guidance of $18 billion while committing to $45 billion in shareholder returns through 2028. The share repurchase program was increased from $8 billion to $10 billion, as CEO John Stankey cited improved cash flow and the stock's value (10.29 times forward earnings). If there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s the dividend, which has remained frozen at $1.11 annually since 2022 and continues to be stagnant despite the capital return commitments.

T-Mobile: Headline Numbers Shroud Murky Guidance That Triggered Sell-Off

T-Mobile US Inc. NASDAQ: TMUS is only one of three to sell off following its Q2 2026 earnings release, which might seem odd given that it beat EPS estimates by more than 15% and raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion. But while the company grew subscribers above consensus, the 277,000 total postpaid net accounts additions represented a 13% YOY decline.

T-Mobile doesn’t publish phone churn rates (only account churn rates), but management prepared the market for a weak Q3 due to “rate plan modernization,” i.e., price hikes. Q3 postpaid net account guidance of just 250,000 adds likely triggered the sell-off. Disappointing results following a strong start to the year in Q1, and the market punished the missteps.

It should be noted that despite the weak subs and troublesome guidance, the earnings growth does appear real. Average revenue per account (ARPA) grew 2% to $152.91, and management guided full-year ARPA to 2.5% to 3%. T-Mobile is deliberately trading volume for monetization, accepting lower subscriber growth in exchange.

Verizon: The Cash Flow King Posts Biggest Upside Surprise

Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE: VZ called the game this quarter thanks to a massive subscriber beat and guidance raise. Expectations were high coming into the Q2 2026 report, but the company surpassed EPS projections (6.6% YOY growth) despite a roughly 2.5% revenue miss vs. consensus. However, the most impressive numbers were the subscriber metrics. Verizon added 184,000 postpaid phone nets in Q2, smashing the consensus expectation of 106,000 and a swift reversal from Q2 2025 when the company lost phone subscribers. The company also added 348,000 broadband subs, bringing the total first-half adds over one million. Phone churn improved 84 basis points, an impressive feat when paired with lower acquisition and retention costs.

Management expects mobility and broadband service revenue to grow 3% in Q3 and 4% in Q4, and boosted full-year EPS estimates to $4.99 to $5.04 and free cash flow estimates to $21.9 billion to $22.1 billion. The cash influx strengthened Verizon’s industry-best dividend, which now yields 6.25% and absorbs only about 31% of free cash flow. Verizon also has a 20-year track record of dividend payout increases, making it the most shareholder-friendly of the major telecoms.

If Verizon’s report contained a red flag, it's that the record profitability and cash flow sit on declining revenue. Management expects revenue growth to pick up in the second half of the year, but this guidance projection is now the most crucial for any of the three major telecoms. A strong Q3 is needed to confirm which trajectory is real.