NBT Bancorp Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to the NBT Bancorp's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the company's website at nbt at bancorp.com. Before the call begins, NBT's management would like to remind listeners that as noted on Slide 2, Today's presentation may contain forward looking statements as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Operator

Actual results may differ from those projected. In addition, certain non GAAP measures will be discussed. Reconciliation of these numbers are contained within the appendix of today's presentation. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time.

Operator

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to NBT Bancorp's President and CEO, John H. Watt Jr. For his opening remarks. Mr.

Operator

Watt, please begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning and thank you all for participating in this earnings Call covering NBT Bancorp's Q3 2023 results. Joining me today are NBT's Chief Financial Scott Kingsley our Chief Accounting Officer, Annette Burns our Treasurer, Joe Andesco and our Chief Information Officer and President of Retail Banking, Joe Stagliano. It was a very active quarter at NBT. We continue to successfully navigate the volatile interest rate environment and its impact on our company and our customers. We closed on the acquisition of Salisbury Bancorp on August 11.

Speaker 1

The simultaneous core systems conversion was successful and the integration is substantially complete. We welcomed over 40,000 new customers, 141 new colleagues and we brought 13 additional branches onto our platform, allowing us to add scale in Connecticut and to expand south into the Hudson Valley. We also welcome Salisbury's CEO, Rick Cantelli to our executive management team and our Board of Directors. The successful closing of this acquisition positions NBT well for future strategic growth. Let me take a moment to highlight 3Q activity across our businesses.

Speaker 1

First, we are very pleased with our operating results, including EPS at $0.84 and return on tangible equity of 16.25%. We've achieved commercial and consumer loan growth at an annualized growth rate of 6.1% in the 3rd quarter. That growth was diverse with our commercial lending and indirect auto businesses leading the way. Through 9 months, we continue to observe a resilient consumer and small business owner. As stated, our indirect auto business had a Strong quarter with originations of over $148,000,000 Our residential mortgage business experienced a seasonal lift despite the interest rate environment.

Speaker 1

Credit quality at NBT is strong and each of the core credit portfolios Like the rest of our industry, our cost of funds has risen as customers seek out higher yielding deposit products. With that said, total deposits grew during the Q3, including the seasonal municipal inflow we experienced. Our full cycle deposit beta is at 24%, including acquired deposits. We continue to enjoy high account Our funding sources are robust and we have the headroom we need to execute on our organic growth plans. Our fee based businesses continued their solid performance in Q3.

Speaker 1

Our Epic Retirement Services Administration business Experienced organic account growth and was additionally supported by the acquisition of Retirement Direct in early July. Total non interest income was 30% of total revenue in the 3rd quarter. In August, we announced that Mike O'Reilly joined the NBT team in Portland as our main Regional President. In addition, he will oversee the execution of our strategy across our markets in Northern New England. Mike's Focus on the diversification of our approach in those markets is the next phase of our long term organic expansion plans.

Speaker 1

During the quarter, activity associated with the Upstate New York Chip Corridor was notable. In Central New York, Micron filed its application with the Commerce Department for multimillion dollar grants and other support under the Chips Act. The international semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices announced that it opened research and development facilities in Fishkill and Rochester. The Albany Nanotech Complex was designated by the federal government as a center for workforce training and received significant At the end of the quarter, the U. S.

Speaker 1

Department of Defense awarded a new 10 year contract to GlobalFoundries in the capital district to produce semiconductors for defense and aerospace applications. Total spend under this contract will be over for $3,000,000,000 As we have discussed in prior calls, the economic activity generated along the chip As our platform is uniquely positioned along the corridor. As we head into the final months of the year, NBT continues to be on offense enhanced by the successful integration of Salisbury into our model, the continued focus on growth in New England and the organic growth occurring along the Chip Corridor. We are well positioned with strong liquidity and capital levels, A diversified business mix, highly effective risk management practices and an experienced team of professionals. I will turn the call over to Scott and Annette now to talk in greater detail about the outcomes associated with the Salisbury merger and our financial performance in the Q3.

Speaker 1

Following their remarks, we will take your questions. So Scott, I'll turn it over to you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started with some additional color on quarterly results, I would like to ask Annette to summarize some of the

Speaker 3

As John mentioned, we closed the merger on August 11 and successfully converted all Salisbury customer accounts to the NBT core operating systems simultaneously with the closing. We acquired approximately $1,200,000,000 of loans, dollars 1,300,000,000 of deposits and issued 4,300,000 additional shares of consideration with a value of $162,000,000 as of the closing date. Thus far, we have achieved the greater part of our estimated 30% in cost synergies with the remaining expected to be realized by the end of 2023. As outlined on Page 4 of our earnings presentation, we recorded fair value marks on loans of 78 $700,000 net of a $5,800,000 reclassification to loan loss reserves for PCD loans. In the Q3, we recognized $1,600,000 of accretion income.

Speaker 3

Based on current prepayment fees, this fair value mark will be over the estimated remaining life of the loans, which we've assumed at just over 7 years. We also recorded a fair value discount of $3,000,000 on Salisbury's $25,000,000 of subordinated debt obligations, which will amortize over the next 3.5 years. We also recorded a $31,200,000 core deposit intangible related to Salisbury's core funding base. We are expecting to amortize that intangible over the next 10 years on an accelerated basis. Lastly, we added $4,700,000 Wealth Management customer list intangible, which would amortize over the next 12 years, again, on an accelerated basis.

Speaker 3

Together, the amortization of these 2 Salisbury related intangibles added $1,000,000 of expense in the 3rd quarter. The net of these four items added approximately $400,000 to our Q3 pretax income and is roughly a half a quarter's impact. In addition, we recorded $1,800,000 in amortizing intangibles related to the Retirement Direct acquisition during the quarter. Scott?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Annette. Turning to Page 5 of our earnings presentation. Our 3rd quarter reported earnings per share were $0.54 While 3rd quarter operating earnings per share were $0.84 compared to $0.80 per share in the linked 2nd quarter and $0.91 in the Q3 of last year. Tangible book value per share of $20.39 at September 30 was down $1.16 per share from the end of the second quarter, Influenced by the Salisbury acquisition as well as an additional $0.37 per share of unfavorable AOCI impacts. Our quarter end tangible equity ratio of 7.15 percent was very close to our projected capital levels at the announcement of the merger last December despite the higher level of AOCI related dilution.

Speaker 2

The next page shows trends in outstanding loans. New origination yields have continued to move productively higher. Our now larger total loan portfolio of 9 point $7,000,000,000 remains very well diversified and is roughly 52% commercial and 48% consumer outstandings. Total deposits of $11,400,000,000 were up $1,900,000,000 in 2023, which included $1,300,000,000 of deposits acquired from Salisbury. The company continues to experience remixing from its no interest and low interest checking and savings accounts into higher yielding money market and time deposit instruments.

Speaker 2

Our quarterly cost of total deposits increased to 118 basis points compared to 85 basis points in the LINK's 2nd quarter and total cost of funds increased 28 basis points from the prior quarter and included the impact of the acquired Salisbury deposits, which did carry generally higher interest rates than the legacy NBT portfolios. In addition, our total cost of deposits for the month of Kemper was 131 basis points, which is 13 basis points above the reported quarterly level. We have also again included a summary of our deposit mix by type, which illustrates the diversification and deep granularity of our customer base. Page 8 looks at the detailed changes in our net interest income and margin. 3rd quarter net interest income was $6,000,000 above the LINK 2nd quarter results, primarily from the Salisbury acquisition as well as one additional calendar day in the Q3.

Speaker 2

We believe our granular deposit funding profile remains a core However, we do continue to expect funding pressures to persist for the next couple of quarters. The trends in non interest income are summarized on the next page. Excluding securities losses, our fee income was up $3,700,000 from the Linked 2nd quarter to $40,400,000 and up 8.3% from the Q3 of 2022. Consistent with historical results, the Q3 of the year continues to be our most robust quarter of revenue generation for our fee based businesses. As such, we'd expect some seasonal declines in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

3rd quarter revenues in our Wealth Management business included approximately $650,000 from Salisbury and our Retirement Plan Administration business added $700,000 of revenues from the Retirement Direct acquisition completed on July 1. The diversification of our revenue generation sources continues to be a core strength of the company. Turning to non interest expense. Our total operating expenses were $82,900,000 for the quarter, which was 6.8% above the linked 2nd quarter excluding merger related expenses. Quarter over quarter increases in salaries and employee benefits, On the next slide, we provide an overview of key asset quality metrics.

Speaker 2

A walk forward of our loan loss reserve changes is also available in the appendix to the presentation. Net charge offs were 18 basis points of loans in the Q3 of 2023 compared to 17 basis points in the prior quarter. The increase in quarter end loss reserves reflected an allowance for acquired Salisbury loans, which included an $8,800,000 day 1 provision expense and the $5,800,000 of PCD allowance. We continue to believe that the path of charge off activity will return to more historical norms and along with expected balance sheet growth will likely be the drivers of future provisioning needs. As I wrap up prepared remarks, some closing thoughts.

Speaker 2

The additional market volatility and uncertainty that arose in early March accelerated our funding cost pressures, which has resulted in lower net interest margins. However, well balanced organic loan growth, constructive results from our recurring fee income lines, stable credit quality outcomes and diligent operating And management have allowed us to generate solid quarterly results. Lastly, our post acquisition capital levels

Operator

And our first question is going to come from the line of Alex Rygiel with Piper Sandler, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Alex. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Hey, first off, wanted to start, John, you talked about the next phase of your organic expansion. I know that you know the main market very well. I believe you ran that for a little Before taking the current role that you have now, I'm just wondering if you can elaborate a little bit on sort of what you mean by that, if that It's going to require some further investment into next year or if it's going to be sort of what you've been doing just maybe with a couple of additional people?

Speaker 1

Thanks for that question. And yes, I did spend time in Portland, as you know. I think the investment here is in people And the supporting systems we need to deliver high quality products and services. As you know, we got off to a really strong It's time now and it always has been our plan to diversify that approach in the market. And we think Mike O'Reilly and the team there thinking about Expanding our small business offering, our C and I offerings, putting the treasury management platform we have front and center On the deposit side, are all sort of basic blocking tackling things that we are now ready to do in Maine and New Hampshire.

Speaker 1

We've done that in Burlington and Northern Vermont, and I think we've demonstrated it's possible and achievable and that's where we're headed. I don't see us investing in brick and mortar in the short run. So it will be people and systems.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for that additional color. And then, Scott, I'm just wondering if you can walk through sort of the funding strategies you have. I think you said cash And I'm going to turn the call

Operator

back over to Steve. Okay. And then just one follow-up on

Speaker 4

the line of David. Okay. And then just one follow-up on the line of How do you weigh the different options for funding that? Would you consider additional securities restructurings, things like that?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alex. And obviously, an important question for us going forward. You're right in your expectations relative to the investment portfolio. I think we're expecting another $45,000,000 in cash flows in the 4th quarter, somewhere between $180,000,000 to $200,000,000 going into next year. You'll remember our investment portfolio is generally amortizing mortgage backed securities, which of course have slowed down as prepayment speeds have virtually reached 0.

Speaker 2

So, our expectation of cash flows have been pulled down a little bit relative to that, but still productive. Given that's the outcome of our investment portfolio, Alex, the ability to launch Some kind of a restructuring of our securities portfolio would require us to estimate interest rates beyond the 1 or 1.5 year horizon. And We're just not so sure that that's the appropriate thing to do today in the market. So back to your point of, how do you fund mid single digit loan growth? I think it's the organic strategies that we've proven we're pretty good at over time.

Speaker 2

Do we expect some continued remixing into CDs and money market

Speaker 5

accounts from savings

Speaker 2

and Into CDs and money market accounts from savings and checking, non interest checking or low interest checking, for sure. A piece of our customer portfolio started to get some repricing of their deposit instruments about a year ago, Q4 of last year or even maybe into the early Q1. And remember, that was at a time when the Federal Reserve was moving rates in 50 to 75 Basis point buckets at each meeting. So I think it was a little more top of mind. Have we seen some sort of leveling out of that Here in the Q3, a little bit.

Speaker 2

Does that mean there's some customers that still think they deserve a better yield on their depository or their excess liquidity? For sure. Those people are still out there. I think the other thing, I think we pointed this out a quarter ago or maybe 2 quarters ago, Generally, the Salisbury cost of funds were higher than ours on a blended basis. And so you're seeing those numbers in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

And remember, you only got half of that in the Q3, so you'll see a little bit more of that in the Q4. But generally, Alex, I think if you're targeting now How to come up with funding sources for a $300,000,000 or $350,000,000 organic growth rate, I think we're in good shape relative to figuring that out. Okay.

Speaker 4

So first line of defense is Cash flows from securities, 2nd line of defense is the organic growth that we all hope for. And then 3rd, tap some funding or some borrowing options Should they come arise, but sale of securities is currently not one of the considerations?

Speaker 2

It is not. So you're spot on with that. And I also think that in terms of what if the Salisbury transaction allows to expand our geography relative to thinking about other spots Within our geography that we have never been represented in, upper and lower Hudson Valley as an example, we've really never had significant Exposure there. Are there some additional spots between where the Salisbury franchise was in the Hudson Valley and where we've been sort of in the Southern Cat Skills and the Capital District of Albany. There's probably some places in there rationally we should link up.

Speaker 2

Same thing in Northwest Connecticut. We have immediate plans for that? No. Are we spending a lot of time trying to identify productive markets for that kind of expansion? For sure.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then just final question for me. When I look at the quarterly loan yields on slide 6 and the new origination yields, Some of them seem still just a little bit light just given rates and what we're hearing from other people. Is that kind of indicative of where the pipeline is well the new origination or is the pipeline a bit higher than the new origination yields on-site? Yes, a

Speaker 6

couple of things

Speaker 2

there Alex. I would say the pipeline is a little Remembering that the Q3 also includes months that were July, August September, and here we stand at the end of October. So the pipeline is probably a little bit higher than that. I think in terms of how those things are blending, residential loan production is obviously not at an all time high. It's at a fairly modest point.

Speaker 2

And so the mix of residential loans that may be ending up in a lower duration portfolio 15 years or in an adjustable rate or a product that has an adjustable rate attached to it. That really explains why that number probably looks a little bit lower. Your point is well taken. Today, given where incremental funding costs are, Do new yield expectations need to be north of $7.50 or $7.75 or even $8,000,000 They should be. Do you get to that path with every single one of your offerings?

Speaker 2

No, not immediately. But I think over time, you make progress with that.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Alex. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. And one moment as we move next to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Good morning, Steve.

Speaker 5

Good morning, John, Scott. Maybe just following up on The funding cost and the margin mix here, I see you guys in a pretty meaningful cash position at quarter end and obviously, Salisbury kind of It makes it a little more difficult. Just curious as to how you're thinking about NII and an overall margin for the Q4 here now Everything is combined with given that funding costs are 13 basis points higher for September.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Steve. So to your point, we'll get the full impact in the Q4 of that. The hope is to tell people that The September cost of funds were the high point of the quarter, which I think we've unfortunately gotten to say every quarter end this year, That the last month of the quarter was more expensive than the 1st month of the quarter. So expect that to continue and now that's more of a remix Dynamic than it is, than there's any other product related change for us on a going forward basis.

Speaker 2

So I would kind of frame it this way that we kind of think of the 4th or 3rd quarter's outcome as a 3.21 Reported margin probably 3.16% core, with meaning that 5 basis points of Mark, accretion was also included in that. We got a number of step down a little bit into the Q4, I think so, Steve, on a core basis. And we'll continue to tell you how much that is moving forward in terms of what's influencing the GAAP reported number. Your point on the balance sheet, well observed. We were in a Fed funds sold position and still borrowing money at the end of the quarter.

Speaker 2

We were very cautious before the closing of the Salisbury transaction that we did not want to put ourselves in any short term liquidity constraint position. So we kept some instruments on the balance sheet, including on the borrowing side into the Q4. I think the lion's share of that Fed funds sold position will move itself off our balance sheet in the Q4 and into the Q1 of next year. And it's interesting that may result in a little bit of compression on end interest margin, but it actually creates a really modest piece of net interest income. And again, remember, we spend net interest income and talk about net interest margin.

Speaker 5

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And just kind of as you're thinking about the deposit environment here, you guys are still running at Well, a low cost of interest funds on interest bearing deposits. So, kind of how are you thinking about through the cycle deposit betas, If we are in a higher for longer environment, kind of what's your sense of the competitive environment these days?

Speaker 2

Yes. So it stays competitive, Steve. And I think that the some of the issues that The industry had to engage in following the bank failures in the Q1. It's still top of mind if you're a banker. That has not gone away.

Speaker 2

And I think we've said before, our regulatory reporting of net And net liquidity sources has continued to be a monthly apparatus, not daily anymore, but monthly. So I think that stands out there. I think in terms of we share markets with larger banks and with smaller banks. The smaller banks have a finite group of customers and communities that they can go to from a funding standpoint. So they'll tend to be a little bit more Liberal or a little bit more assertive relative to retention and if rate is necessary to retain, that's what we see.

Speaker 2

The larger banks we're competing with across most of our footprint Have kind of found a regional and or a national strategy for their depository products, and we line up very well against that. We don't need to be overtly assertive to retain our customers. We've made this comment before, Steve. We have a very, very granular mix Customers from a depository standpoint. So that ability to look at that granularity where we have a large customer base Does not have today or does not enjoy huge amounts of excess liquidity.

Speaker 2

That being said, our institutional, commercial and larger small business customers Do have excess liquidity and they are expecting market yield. So I don't think that dynamic changes for the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then in terms of just following up on loan yields here, quite the move over the past 3 to 4 months. Just curious, are you starting to see an increasing number of deals that no longer makes sense? And could we see Maybe a slowdown in loan growth from the mid single digits, if loans are headed towards an 8% plus type rate?

Speaker 1

Let me take that one. We're right in the middle of the budget process, right? And top of mind every day is what's growth going to look like next year. Right now, it's our view that mid single digits, maybe slightly moderating down from that, Mid single digits is our jump off planning spot. Looking at Pipelines going into the end of the year, the commercial banking pipeline is pretty strong.

Speaker 1

The business banking pipeline pretty strong. So will there be moderating demand further into next year? We'll see, but I don't think it's unreasonable for us to be planning mid single digits.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then one last one for me, just in terms of the fixed rate loans dynamic here that are re pricing over the next 12 months. Just curious if you have those Expected repricing, Scott?

Speaker 2

Yes, Steve. So when we look at our loan portfolio today, We think of about $1,700,000,000 of cash flow instruments coming off that and that's probably a lower number than we said a quarter or 2 or 3 ago, just given the slowdown in prepayment speeds. And that slowdown in prepayment speeds is noticeable in residential mortgage products, in solar loans, in a couple of other portfolios. But over time, I still think that people Buy a new car, and over time people will move again. But I think we use $1,700,000 of

Speaker 6

Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Chris

Speaker 7

I was just hoping to circle back to just the near term NIM discussion. I guess on a core base, well, First off, just for the next full quarter, given where the close was this quarter, like what do you think the Quarterly accretion number will shake out at roughly?

Speaker 3

So I think this Quarter's $1,600,000 is a proxy. You double that and that's what that will look like for the next Few quarters depending on prepayment fees, but I think that's a good proxy.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. And just thinking about the core NIM, where do you guys have where that was for on a spot basis for September?

Speaker 2

Don't now have that in front of me, Chris, but I would probably tell you that if the quarter's core was 316, I would guess somewhere between $310,000,000 $312,000,000 for September month of.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay, great. And as we get past next quarter and hit the trajectory in the next year, I mean, is the pace of funding pressure going to depend more on the core customers that you have or of how the mix shift tends to play out from this point. And if you have what the Organic non interest bearing deposit growth or decline was for this quarter, that would be great.

Speaker 2

Yes. So Chris, that was probably where I would say yes. The impact of our core customers is more the determining outcome. If you're today and just to offer probably most things, if you're truly recruiting large pools of incremental cash on to your balance sheet, You're expecting to pay a 5% yield for that. It doesn't matter whether it's a wholesale source or whether it's a large institutional source, that's the customer expectation on that.

Speaker 2

But if you're down into the granular adds and our ability to add incremental checking accounts, really important And it's something we've historically been very good at. But it's just in terms of circling the wagons on deposit balances, Those tend to be very effective accounts from us both on a cost of funds as well as an activity participation. So we're still focused on that. In terms of how we think about that going into next year, Again, a portion of our core customers got some repricing on some of their deposits in the Q4 of last year and the Q1 of this year, And they probably went into instruments that were not long in duration, 6 to 10 to 13 month type CD durations. So those people are going to be back in front of us for repricing.

Speaker 2

And the question is what is their demand today? We assume it's a little higher than what we put them in at the end of last year, But I wouldn't think it's so much higher that that's going to be something that we couldn't offset With earning asset yields continuing to productively move forward, not at the point where we're declaring victory on that for the Q4 or even maybe the Q1 of next year, But expectation wise, you can see that coming.

Speaker 5

Great.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. And then,

Speaker 1

do

Speaker 7

you guys have the dollar amount of what the remaining cost saves are on the SAL deal?

Speaker 2

Chris, probably not specifically to a dollar number. Remember, we now have history with Salisbury as of September 30, 49 days, And we now have 25 more behind us here in the Q4. I think once we get through a full 4th quarter, we'll have a real sense of that in terms Of dollar outcome. And that helped me 30% of the base at Salisbury was $9,500,000 or $10,000,000

Speaker 3

That's correct, right around $10,000,000 Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Okay, great. And then you did you do have the The share repurchase plan outstanding, it sounds like growth is solid, but Not overly concerning in terms of capital usage. Capital should be building at a fairly good pace going forward given the profitability you have. Is it something that you will be exploring using on a go forward basis?

Speaker 2

For sure, Chris. I think as we start to talk about that, We like our positioning today because it allows us back to your point of understanding where our natural credit And I'm sorry, Natural Capital Accumulation, the positioning we have ourselves in. We certainly have to leave ourselves room to grow organically because we've been good at that over As we pointed out in the Salisbury transaction, having a little bit of excess capital to be able to use for a really high value acquisition It's a great opportunity for us. Similarly, we've raised our dividend now 11 straight years. We think the shareholders deserve more on a predictable annual basis.

Speaker 2

And to your point, having an open authorization for share repurchases is an important feature. I think it's more important when you think your organic loan growth opportunities are probably a little bit slower and there may that may come into Play in 2024, we may find that there are periods of 2024 where demand is not as robust as we're enjoying today. I think those are the periods where a buyback is actually productive. And we've always had the authorization out there to make sure that we could address Share creep from some of our equity programs. And what's the hurdle you got to get over with that today?

Speaker 2

It carries a 5% funding cost to do that, To buy your own shares, if you're being transparent, you got to assume that you're going to use 5% money to do that. The government sort of nicks us for a 1% toll tax when we buy that stuff. But again manageable and part of the long term capital allocation strategy of the company for sure.

Speaker 1

And if I could put a fine point on that too, we review that at the Board level every year. And just coincidentally this week, Scott led the Board through that same discussion and we reaffirmed that's the priority of allocation of capital as we go forward. So we're at a place this week where there is consensus at the top of the house and at the Board, That's how we're going

Operator

to proceed.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, John and Scott. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. Appreciate the questions.

Operator

Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everybody. Good morning, Matt.

Speaker 2

Good morning,

Speaker 6

Matt. Just a couple of model related questions. First, on fee income, Scott, you had mentioned that seasonally, this was the strongest quarter of the year. With Salisbury only being there for a partial Could you help us out in terms of what you expect to roll off, but then also for the full quarter impact with Sal? Where do you expect fee income to shake out in the 4th quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, it's a great question, Meta. Thanks for actually that. So historically, we've had somewhere around $0.02 Per share or maybe $1,000,000 to $1,200,000 reduction in core revenues in our fee based businesses 4th quarter versus 3rd quarter. So you think about that as a backdrop, we do some activity based billings in our Wealth Management business in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

We have some actuarial fees that are more pronounced in the 1st and the third quarter of each year. So that's typically been our pattern for that. Your point is well taken. We added about $650,000.5 a quarter in the Wealth Management Trust side from Salisbury. I think it's fair to assume that you get a full quarter of that in the Q4 and that kind of run rate expectations going forward.

Speaker 2

The market sensitivity in retirement plan administration and in wealth is still meaningful for us. But that being said, I think we have a more traditional base of customers in there. So their utilization of both Fixed income as well as equity instruments is probably a more traditional based outcome. That's not the 100% equity market influence group. And clearly, there's yields in the fixed income market today, so you'd expect some productive use of that.

Speaker 2

So all in, Matt, I would say, We're looking at saying in the Q4, revenue is probably still down. It probably isn't down as much as it would have been say from last Q3 to last year's Q4 because of the Salisbury impact, but we still think probably a little bit lower than what we had in the Q3. 1st and second quarter of next year is probably you have the outcome that's similar to your 4th quarter with an expectation of organic growth, Which we've achieved in all three lines of business in 2023 and expect that to continue opening new accounts, Expanding our base and having additional geography to expand those products to is all a net positive.

Speaker 6

I appreciate all the color there. And then on the provision, you had mentioned that going forward, maybe we could expect a kind of more normalized provision. Certainly, there are some moving parts this quarter. How would you frame that, 15 bps to 20 bps of loans? Is that a reasonable starting point?

Speaker 6

Or said another way, do you feel like the current reserve is probably a good place Keep it for the near term.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think unless you get a meaningful change in some of the economic expectations, Where we are currently from a coverage ratio on our current mix is probably a fair starting point. I think for us and I'm sure we'll budget this way, we'll budget that net charge offs again start to maybe look a little bit more like Pre pandemic levels, but maybe not all the way back to 2019 net charge off levels. We always think, Matt, that provision wise, we cover those And then we cover whatever incremental loan growth we experienced in the quarter at that blended coverage ratio. In the 3rd quarter, We had some things that actually were net positive for us that didn't force us into quite that outcome, but maybe a $0.08 or 2 from that It wasn't like it was $0.08 or $0.09 off that outcome.

Speaker 2

It was a couple of cents.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then John, I had a few questions Just based on recent events and then the Upstate New York activity, it feels like every quarter you're now announcing another contract, another company. This quarter you're talking about New York creates the Albany complex being granted that the Center For Workforce Training. First of all, what is the significance of that? Secondly, do you expect to see the region as a whole becoming more of a point of gravity much like Silicon Valley was For companies similar to Micron, similar to GlobalFoundries to go to upstate New York, is this going to be a slow moving We're growing snowball effect as more and more companies enter the area.

Speaker 6

And could you remind everybody What's already existing up there?

Speaker 1

So I appreciate the opportunity to have that discussion. You know how important we believe it is at NBT for the economic transformation of our core markets in Upstate New York that On Sami and GlobalFoundries and Wolfspeed and now Micron for $100,000,000,000 in Central New York, Which are the Chip Corridor, Lower Hudson Valley to Central New York are going to drive a transformation of our economy unlike 1 we have seen in many, many years in Upstate New York. So It has been below the radar. We believe at NBT that one of the things we can be doing is to raise visibility around it, Thus this discussion, am I going to go as far and say that Onondaga County in Central New York is Going to be the new Silicon Valley? No, I'm not going to say that.

Speaker 1

But what I am going to suggest is we're going to use words like population growth, Like job growth, like the increase in average salary and Increase in the retention of students who graduate from all of the colleges and universities in Upstate New York Because the job opportunities are going to be plentiful and that's the momentum that we have here. The application filed by Micron to the Commerce Department in July For the allocation of the CHIPS Act is likely to be acted on by year end. It has The support politically from Senator Schumer, and there is a lot of optimism inside of Micron. We're aware of this that It will happen. There's a lot of work going on, on the planning and preliminary site work So the momentum there is positive.

Speaker 1

Every quarter, you're absolutely right. There is a global semiconductor company or Supplier or related research company, who is being drawn into this corridor and into this market to support Micron, Wolfspeed, GlobalFoundries on semi and other semiconductor Initiatives in Upstate New York, and that I like your word snowball in Upstate New York in this season, good analogy. That is likely to be a snowball that continues to roll downhill and grow. And again, The NBT footprint sits directly on top of that, and we have insight into what's Going on in each one of those regions and we would expect in our retail businesses, in our commercial lending business, in our wealth business, Insurance business that there is big opportunity. It has been demonstrated already in Central New York with The growth of I'm sorry, in the Capital District with the growth of GlobalFoundries over the last 12 years, Population growth in Greater Saratoga, an increase in business activity.

Speaker 1

We have many customers who support that industry, who are enjoying additional Contract bookings and it would expect more for many years as the expansion continues. So I'll stop there, But I hope that you have a flavor of why we believe it's a key organic growth strategy for the long run and will transform the economy and drive significant growth at NBT.

Speaker 6

Well, I appreciate all that color. Just moving on to a different topic, more recently, we've seen a bank strategy of parting ways with the income businesses, Insurance companies to be specific. I think I know the answer to this, but I just wanted your 2¢ on this strategy and whether or not we might see you Follow suit or continue a path of building these lines of businesses?

Speaker 2

Yes. Matt, you and I have had this discussion. So We're about organically growing these businesses and to the extent that we get opportunistic periods of time where we can bolt Small revenue generation activities or small other firms in that same space, that's still our bias for sure. It's difficult to sell stuff. You end up unwinding stuff that you've worked on for several years relative to cross selling opportunities.

Speaker 2

I'll admit that the last couple that have been announced for these really large agencies, revenues in the $100,000,000 or $100,000,000 level. It's hard not to look at those multiple levels and say, I understand why those institutions potentially talked about that. I think for us to kind of think about this strategy, if we can continue to organically grow the businesses that we're in, we think we can create Productive and profitable scale going forward. The beauty for us today is all we have scale in each of those businesses today. So it's just incumbent upon us to find The right folks and the right opportunities from a product standpoint to continue to organically grow because we really, really like the cash flow that comes off those businesses And they're huge, obviously, generating capital for the rest of the institution.

Speaker 2

So our bias today is continue to improve and grow. And our businesses are a touch smaller than those big headline deals you've seen announced lately. I'm not so sure the Arthur Gallaghers of the world and people in their size Are interested in what we have.

Speaker 6

I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up, from my seat, as this kind of Events happen, the knee jerk reaction is obviously, one, to look horizontally and figure out who else has these businesses, do some of the parts analysis. Frankly, from my years in the seat, you very rarely actually get a multiple on a fee income business with any sort of press release. So for the first time, we have an insurance multiple, it feels like. What we don't have are multiples necessarily on Wealth Management or in your case the Retirement Plan admin business.

Speaker 6

I'm not asking for a specific multiple on a recent deal, but can you give us a flavor for what those types of businesses wealth and retirement plan admin, What type of multiple those go for in today's market or in a normal market?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, I'm going to I'll give you maybe some historical perspective on this as well. But I think that typically those businesses that have recurring cash flows and they are in more in the processing space Have demanded multiples of revenue that have been 2, 2.5 or 3 times depending on their size, because again, they're repetitive transactions. I've always thought that there was from the private equity side or the hedge fund side that there was With the firms who accumulate assets, because I think there was always this sense that you could be involved in the management or The administrative activities of just those assets, I think what we find in our businesses is we're good at processing and we're fine with that. So in our Retirement Plan Administration business, we're asset agnostic.

Speaker 2

We are just the processing platform and we're good at it. And we've taken the place of people's HR functions more than anything, in that line of business. Wealth for us is embedded into the core culture of the bank. We've always done that. It's embedded with us from a geography standpoint.

Speaker 2

Our people in the field are servicing not only our bank customers, but our other centers of influence in our communities that we're already participating in. And I would say the same thing about insurance. We continue to strive to have a good cross sell with our customers on the insurance side that's been very effective in the small business, Small commercial side, more than anything else. Finding a productive platform to do that more, more repetitively on the consumer side, It's kind of the elusive thing, but we're working on it. We're working on it and we're making some progress on that.

Speaker 2

So I would kind of frame it this way. Unless we don't think we can organically grow, those businesses are long term for our portfolio.

Speaker 6

Great. I appreciate all the color. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Matt. Hey, thanks, Matt.

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions. And I would like to turn the call back over to John Waugh for his closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Michelle. Appreciate everybody's time this morning. Thank you for all those great questions about the Momentum behind NBT as we close out this year and move into 2024. Again, have a great day. Appreciate your time.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Watt. This concludes our program. You may disconnect. Have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
NBT Bancorp Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00