Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2023

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q3 2023 Analyst Conference Call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in listen only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Silke Cipa, Deputy Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us for our Q3 2023 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website at db.com. Before we get started, let me remind you that the presentation contains forward looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our material.

Speaker 1

With that, let me hand over to Christian.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Silke, and a warm welcome also from my side. It's a pleasure to be discussing our Q3 9 months results with you today. These results show our continued progress on the path to our targets in several respects. 1st and foremost, we continue to demonstrate strong earnings momentum. We generated profit before tax of €5,000,000,000 in the 1st 9 months after absorbing nearly €950,000,000 in non operating costs, including restructuring related to operational efficiencies.

Speaker 2

Our post tax RoTE was 7% And would have been nearly 9%, excluding these non operating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally across the year. This reflects progress on our path to meet our 2025 target of above 10%. 2nd, we are seeing progress across all three dimensions of accelerated execution of our global house bank strategy, namely revenue growth, operational efficiency and capital efficiency. Strong operating performance It's driven by business momentum through a well balanced business model. Revenues in the 1st 9 months were €22,200,000,000 Up 6% year on year, well above our target growth rate.

Speaker 2

Private Bank and Asset Management together attracted net inflows of €39,000,000,000 alongside €18,000,000,000 of deposit growth at the group level in the Q3. We also continue to make progress on the second dimension of our global house bank strategy, operational efficiency. We have progressed with existing measures and we have additional measures in flight. And in terms of capital, we are delivering on our distribution commitments. We are on track to complete the €450,000,000 share repurchase announced in July, thereby delivering total distributions across 20222023 of €1,750,000,000 We finished the Q3 with strong capital.

Speaker 2

Our CET1 ratio was 13.9%. And in addition, we have identified further capital opportunities and we now see scope to free up additional capital €3,000,000,000 enabling us to accelerate our strategy and boost returns above our original expectations from now through 2025 beyond. This gives us added potential to increase capital distributions to shareholders, while also deploying capital to support clients. Before we move on to progress in our businesses, Let me give you an update on the Postbank IT migration. This was one of the largest IT migration projects in European Banking, And it's essential to lay the foundations for a more digital bank offering at Postbank.

Speaker 2

We successfully migrated 50,000,000,000 records of 12,000,000 Postbank customers. However, we saw unexpected levels of client inquiries, which led to backlogs. We have put measures in place to work through these backlogs. This not only includes an increase of temporary staff, but also accelerating measures already underway, such as implementation of automation and process optimization tools. And I'm pleased that we have reduced the operational backlog by about 2 thirds over the past weeks, And we expect 70% of all impacted postbank customer processes to run against service level commitments again by end of October, including processes which have been particularly critical for our clients.

Speaker 2

We are confident that the remainder will be completed in the Q4. Let me now turn to the key highlights of our resilient performance over the 9 months on Slide 2. We delivered operating leverage of 4% on an adjusted basis in the 1st 9 months with revenues up 6% and adjusted costs up 2%. As a result, our pre provision profit for the 1st 9 months was up 5% on year year on year to €6,000,000,000 In addition, we continue to reate the benefits of disciplined risk management and a high quality loan book. Provision for credit losses for the 1st 9 months remained in line with our full year guidance at 28 basis points of average loans.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet proved its resilience. Deposits rebounded by €18,000,000,000 to €611,000,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. We saw franchise momentum across Board. And furthermore, we strengthened our capital position. Our CET1 ratio rose to 13.9% during the quarter, Thanks primarily to strong organic capital generation from earnings and the results of our capital optimization efforts.

Speaker 2

This more than offset negative regulatory impacts, mostly model changes and deductions for dividends and share buybacks. Let Let me now discuss the growth and balance across our business on Slide 3. The Corporate Bank delivered a post tax RoTE of 17% in the past 9 months. Strong revenue growth combined with flat adjusted costs driven by tight expense discipline produced operating leverage of 24%. Our momentum with key clients is encouraging.

Speaker 2

We saw an increase of around 40% in incremental deals 1 with Multinational Corporate Clients, which will drive future revenues. Our client focus, Strong core capabilities and standing as an innovative thought leader in the market have been evidenced by the Bankers Transaction Banking Awards 2023, where Deutsche Bank has been voted best bank for cash management as well as Transaction Bank of the Year for Western Europe for the 2nd consecutive year. In the Investor Bank, we have a well diversified business portfolio, supported by our leading financing business, which contributed EUR 2,200,000,000 or approximately 35% of FICC revenues year to date. We have invested into our Origination and Advisory business, taking advantage of market opportunities, which are expected to drive future revenues, including through the acquisition of Numis, which we recently completed. We are also seeing clear signs of recovery in the market led by debt origination.

Speaker 2

Turning to the Private Bank. The business grew revenues, attracted inflows of €22,000,000,000 supported by new money campaigns and made further progress in streamlining our distribution channels. And finally, we also grew volumes in Asset Management. Assets under management grew by €38,000,000,000 including €17,000,000,000 of net inflows in the 1st 9 months of 2023, driven by strong inflows into passive, including X Trackers. The business launched 18 new products in the 3rd quarter alone, including our first thematic ETFs in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Market. To sum up, we delivered revenues of €28,500,000,000 in the last 12 months to September 30, Up over 6% versus the equivalent prior period. We also see forward momentum from net inflows, Investments and Business Wins with Key Clients. Our businesses are strongly complementary and well balanced.

Speaker 2

All of this supports our conviction that we will continue to grow our franchise and exceed our revenue growth targets. Now let me turn to the progress we are making to accelerate the execution of our global house bank strategy on Slide 4. 1st, on revenues. With compound annual revenue growth of 6.9% over 2021, We are well on track to outperform on our revenue growth target of 3.5% to 4.5%. And we will continue to benefit from the higher rate environment, which drives sustainable performance in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank.

Speaker 2

We also made progress with our own initiatives that are expected to drive fee income. We are confident that the new addition to the family, Deutsche Nummies, will enable us to take added advantage of an expected pickup in corporate finance activity. The €39,000,000,000 of net asset inflows in the 9 months, We expect the growth of our assets under management to drive fee income in future quarters. 2nd, on operational efficiencies, our existing savings measures are largely proceeding in line with or ahead of our plan. This includes streamlining of front to back processes and headcount management.

Speaker 2

We are also optimizing our distribution network And we have reduced branches by more than 90 over the 1st 9 months of 2023. And this enabled us to keep our adjusted The cost essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter despite absorbing inflationary pressures and investments in growth and controls. And we continue to work on further measures. And 3rd, turning to capital efficiencies. As I mentioned earlier, we have made considerable progress on several fronts.

Speaker 2

We have already delivered after 2 quarters around €10,000,000,000 of the €15,000,000,000 to €20,000,000,000 RWA reduction we planned by the end of 2025. Other measures are already ongoing, mainly focused on hedging and reductions in sub hurdle lending. And given progress to date, We have identified additional opportunities to reduce RWAs further and this enables us to raise our target by €10,000,000,000 to €20,000,000,000 to €30,000,000,000 Let's now discuss what this means for us on Slide 5. As just mentioned, we will deliver a further RWA reduction of around €10,000,000,000 from our capital optimization measures. And on top of this, we now anticipate a lower impact from Basel III by €10,000,000,000 to €15,000,000,000 which James will discuss in a moment.

Speaker 2

Taken together, these two factors Give us potential to free up additional capital of around €3,000,000,000 through 2025. We believe that our enhanced capital outlook will support accelerated and expanded distributions to shareholders, while increasing our ability to invest in our platforms to boost growth and profitability. We will deliver this by sharpening our business model around capital light and at scale businesses, while applying rigorous hurdle rates to our portfolios to drive returns. As we look to 2025 and beyond, we see a clear opportunity to shift gears through a self reinforcing process of franchise growth, operating leverage and increased returns And to create more lasting value for our shareholders as our global house bank grows. With that, let me hand over to James.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 8 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined the business momentum and our well balanced revenue mix, which resulted in revenue growth of nearly 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target. Our strong revenue growth combined with cost management led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost income ratio to 73% And our return on tangible equity was 7% in the 1st 9 months of 2023.

Speaker 3

These ratios would have improved by almost 5% and 1.8 percentage points if adjusted for higher non operating costs and if bank levies were apportioned equally across the year. Our capital position remains strong with CET1 ratio at 13.9% this quarter after absorbing regulatory headwinds and the impact of the share repurchase. Our liquidity metrics also remain strong. LCR was 132%, in line with our target of around 130%, And the net stable funding ratio was 121%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our resilience and our confidence in reaching or exceeding our 2025 targets.

Speaker 3

With that, let me turn to the Q3 highlights on Slide 8. Group revenues were €7,100,000,000 up 3% on the Q3 of 2022 or 6% excluding specific items. Non interest expenses were €5,200,000,000 up 4% year on year, mainly driven by higher non operating expenses. Non operating expenses this quarter included litigation charges of €105,000,000 €94,000,000 of restructuring and severance provisions. Adjusted costs increased 2% year on year, which I will discuss in more detail shortly.

Speaker 3

Provision for credit losses was 245,000,000 or 20 basis points of average loans. We generated a profit before tax of €1,700,000,000 up 7% year on year. Net profit of €1,200,000,000 was down 3% year on year, reflecting an effective tax rate of 30% compared to 23% in the prior year quarter. Our cost income ratio was 72.4% and our post tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity was 7.3% in the quarter. Diluted earnings per share was $0.56 in the 3rd quarter and tangible book value per share was €27.74 up 5% year on year.

Speaker 3

Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results, starting with interest revenues on Slide 9. Average interest earning assets increased by €6,000,000,000 quarter on quarter, driven by the increase in our deposit levels led by the Corporate Bank. Net interest margin in the Corporate Bank declined by approximately 25 basis points due to lower lending income and a higher cost of liquidity reserves. However, Net interest income on the corporate deposit books remained stable over the quarter. Net interest margin in the private bank remained broadly stable in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

Overall, our deposit betas continue to outperform our models. At the group level, NIM is down 12 basis points of which approximately five basis points relates to an accounting impact in C and O similar to the Q1 and the balance relates to the NIM reduction in the Corporate Bank. With that, let's turn to adjusted costs on Slide 10. Adjusted costs excluding bank levies were €4,960,000,000 in line with the prior quarter and up 2% year on year. The increase is driven by inflationary pressures, on growing investments in controls and business growth, which were partially offset by active cost management In addition, we see a normalization of marketing spend and we continue to invest into talent.

Speaker 3

Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Provision for credit losses in the Q3 was €245,000,000 equivalent to 20 basis points of average loans. The decline compared to the previous quarter reflected a reversal of approximately €100,000,000 of Stage 1 and 2 provisions driven by model changes and improved macroeconomic forecasts, mainly impacting the Investment Bank and Corporate Bank. Stage 3 provisions of €346,000,000 were broadly in line with the previous quarter. Provisions this quarter were driven by the Private Bank and Investment Bank, while the Corporate Bank benefited from a lower level of impairments.

Speaker 3

For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land at the upper end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans. Before we move to performance in our businesses, Let me turn to capital on the next two slides, starting with Slide 12. Our 3rd quarter Regulatory changes principally from the go live of now approved wholesale and retail models resulted in a decline of 38 basis business points slightly below the low end of our previous guidance. Optimization initiatives generated 27 basis points from lower credit risk RWA, principally reflecting improvements in our data and certain process changes. Further 19 basis points of ratio support came from diligent risk management in our businesses.

Speaker 3

Finally, 11 basis point increase came from strong organic capital generation that is net income offset by deductions for the share buyback, dividends and AT1 coupons. Building on Christian's earlier comments, let me give updated guidance on our capital outlook on Slide 13. As mentioned, regulatory changes led to a reduction of 38 basis points in our common equity Tier 1 ratio. With the go live of the now approved wholesale and retail models, the ECB has completed the review of approximately 85% of the relevant portfolio and We expect only a limited ratio impact from the remainder. Next, we announced in the Q1 of this year a targeted €15,000,000,000 to €20,000,000,000 RWA reduction by the end of 2025 through several capital optimization initiatives.

Speaker 3

We accelerated some of the anticipated data and process optimization initiatives into the Q3, which brings the cumulative RWA reductions to €10,000,000,000 to date. The work we have done over the past several months gives us the confidence to increase the original target by €10,000,000,000 to €25,000,000,000 to €30,000,000,000 Lastly, let me touch on our Basel III estimates. The latest review of our impact assessments indicates and RWA increase of only around €15,000,000,000 compared to the €25,000,000,000 to €30,000,000,000 we have previously guided. The majority of the improvement comes from our market risk and credit valuation adjustment FRTB program, The impact estimates for which matured significantly. Credit risk estimates are still under review and remain dependent on the final CRR 3 legislative text.

Speaker 3

Overall, let me highlight that current estimates are based on our interpretation of current draft regulation and therefore remain subject to change. Cumulatively, these changes in our outlook are significant and support Christian's earlier statements relating to our enhanced ability to execute our strategy and improve our return profile. Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 15. Corporate Bank revenues in the Q3 were €1,900,000,000 21% higher year on year, driven by an improved interest rate environment and pricing discipline with double digit growth across all client segments. Sequentially, revenues decreased slightly due to lower net interest income from lending and a higher cost of liquidity reserves.

Speaker 3

However, pricing discipline on our deposit businesses remained exceptionally strong with limited pass through and higher business volumes, resulting in strong deposit income. We continue to anticipate a normalization of our deposit revenues over the coming quarters, which we expect to be partially offset by growing non interest rate sensitive revenue streams, including commission and fees. Loan volume in the Corporate Bank was €117,000,000,000 down by €12,000,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter, but €1,000,000,000 higher compared to the low point in the prior quarter. Deposits were €286,000,000,000 €15,000,000,000 higher than in the second quarter, with growth in both overnight and term balances in euro and U. S.

Speaker 3

Dollar and essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter despite the market events in March. Provision for credit losses was €11,000,000 or 4 basis points of average loans. The decrease compared to the prior quarter reflects a lower number of impairments in the 3rd quarter and further benefits from Stage 3 recoveries as well as model changes impacting Stages 1 and 2 performing loans. Non interest expenses were €1,100,000,000 a decrease of 2% year on year, driven by FX movements. Sequentially, expenses decreased by 7%, predominantly driven by the non repetition of litigation charges.

Speaker 3

Profit before tax was €805,000,000 in the quarter, doubling year on year and driving the post tax return on tangible equity to 18.3% with a cost income ratio at 57%. I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 16. Revenues for the Q3 were essentially a flat excluding the impact of DVA and 4% lower year on year on a reported basis. Fixed sales and trading decreased by 12% against what was a strong prior year quarter. Rates, foreign exchange and emerging markets revenues were all lower compared to a very strong prior year quarter and reflected a less volatile market environment.

Speaker 3

Financing revenues remained strong on an absolute basis, though down year on year due to the non repeat of a material episodic item in the prior year quarter. Credit trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by ongoing improvements in the flow business and continued strong performance in Distressed. Moving to Origination and Advisory, revenues were up over 3 fold, materially driven by the non recurrence of leverage lending markdowns in the prior year. However, excluding these markdowns, Origination and advisory performance was still significantly higher and outperformed the industry fee pool. Debt origination revenues were significantly higher benefiting from the non repeat of the aforementioned markdowns and improved LDCM performance, which saw a partial recovery in both the industry fee pool and our market share versus the prior year.

Speaker 3

Advisory revenues were significantly lower, reflecting a decline in the industry fee pool. However, as previously stated, with signs that deal activity is starting to recover, We expect our investments in origination and advisory to result in a significant improvement in performance into 2024. Non interest expenses and adjusted costs were both essentially flat year on year. Risk weighted assets were broadly stable year on year. Leverage decreased year on year driven by the impact of foreign exchange movements.

Speaker 3

Provision for credit losses was €63,000,000 or 25 basis points of average loans. The decrease versus the prior year was primarily driven by model changes affecting Stage 12 performing loans, partially offsetting Stage 3 impairments from commercial real estate. Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 17. Revenues were up 3% year on year or 9% if adjusted for specific items in the prior year period, which related to Sal Oppenheim workout activities. Net interest income was essentially flat quarter on quarter and higher deposit revenues in the Q3 were mainly offset by higher mortgage hedging costs following the Postbank transition, which were held centrally before.

Speaker 3

In the Private Bank Germany, revenues increased by 16% due to higher deposit revenues. A decline in fee income mainly reflected changes in contractual conditions impacting insurance products. Reported revenues in the International Private Bank were down 13% or up 2% year on year if adjusted for the non recurrence of both specific revenue items in the prior year quarter and revenues from the divested financial advisory business in Italy as well as FX impacts. Growth was driven by deposit products in Europe, which were in part offset by continued client deleveraging in Asia. Revenues in Wealth Management and Bank for Entrepreneurs declined by 21% or 3% if adjusted for the aforementioned effects.

Speaker 3

Revenues in premium banking increased by 14%, supported by higher interest rates. Turning to costs, the increase of non interest expenses mainly reflects continued higher internal service cost allocations, including investments in controls, as well as restructuring provisions and severance related to strategy execution. The prior year period included a benefit from deposit protection costs. Provision for credit losses was €174,000,000 or 27 basis points of average loans in the quarter and included an impact of approximately €25,000,000 driven by the temporary operational backlog at Posbank. Overall, credit quality remains stable across our portfolios.

Speaker 3

The private bank attracted net inflows of €9,000,000,000 in the quarter with €6,000,000,000 in AUM deposits and €3,000,000,000 in investment products. Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 18. My usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS standalone E. Assets under management remained stable at €860,000,000,000 in the quarter supported by net inflows and positive FX effects, largely offset by €13,000,000,000 of market depreciation. Net inflows were primarily in passive, continuing the momentum in our X Tracker's products we've seen throughout the year.

Speaker 3

As you will have seen in their results, DWS saw a decline in revenues compared to the prior year. However, with slightly lower non interest expenses, profit before tax was essentially flat. This development principally reflected a 6% decline in management fees to €589,000,000 Due to prior year declines in assets under management, driven by net outflows excluding cash and market developments in 2022, as well as FX movements. Performance fees declined by €19,000,000 Other revenues declined due to lower mark to market valuations of co investments, partly offset by favorable outcome of deferred compensation hedges. Non interest expenses and adjusted costs were both 8% lower than the prior year.

Speaker 3

Compensation costs were lower, driven by a significant decline in carried interest expense, partially due to lower performance fees in the period. Non compensation costs were also lower, reflecting effective cost reductions across almost all cost categories. Profit before tax of €109,000,000 in the quarter was down 18% compared to the prior year, reflecting revenue performance. The cost income ratio for the quarter was 75% and return on tangible equity was 13%. Moving to Corporate and Other on Slide 19.

Speaker 3

Corporate and Other reported a pretax loss of €195,000,000 this quarter versus a pre tax loss of €28,000,000 in the Q3 of 2022. This year on year change was driven in part by valuation and timing differences, which were positive €158,000,000 in this quarter versus €199,000,000 in the prior year quarter. The V and T results in this quarter was driven in particular by the reversal of prior period losses. Expenses associated with shareholder activities The pre tax loss associated with legacy portfolios was negative €137,000,000 driven primarily by litigation charges. Turning to the group outlook for the full year on Slide 20.

Speaker 3

We remain focused on delivering positive operating leverage as we drive our revenue growth initiatives and execute our cost reduction measures. We now expect full year 2023 revenues to be around €29,000,000,000 Our non interest expenses will be slightly higher, reflecting a series of non operating items. However, We expect our adjusted costs to remain essentially flat in line with our guidance. Provision for credit losses is expected at the upper end of the 25 to 30 basis points range of average loans for the full year. Thinking ahead, our 4th quarter earnings are expected to transaction.

Speaker 3

We are now actively impacted by a number of one off items, both positive and negative, including an accounting impairment of the goodwill from the Numis acquisition, of potential restitution payment from our National Resolution Fund, further restructuring and severance, as well as year end tax adjustments. And finally, as both Christian and I have mentioned earlier, our capital outlook is substantially improved by further RWA reductions we have identified and we plan to engage with supervisors on the scope for further additional distributions to shareholders. With that, let me hand back to Silke, and we look forward to your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. Operator, we are ready to take the questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. If you are using a speaker equipment today, please lift the handsets before making your selection. The first question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2, please, on capital. The first one is on your increased capital efficiency.

Speaker 4

Could you give us a bit more color on how you managed to increase your reduction targets by €10,000,000,000 And also regarding the €3,000,000,000 of potential additional freed up capital to 2025, What does it mean for your capital distribution and your targeted €8,000,000,000 shareholders distribution? Should we expect a meaningful increase as soon as next year? And then on the regulatory capital outlook and the improved Basel III outlook. Is the new guidance related to the input floor? And also do you have any chance regarding your output for guidance?

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, good morning and thank you, Nico, for your question. Let me take The first part and then I hand over to James. Look, let me start that this is a very important and I think very good day for Deutsche Bank, because I think what we show now also on the capital side is nothing else than further evidence that our long term strategy And obviously, the diligent execution around it is paying off more and more and obviously more to come. To your capital distribution question and how we did arrive, yes, it's a good day for shareholders with material progress on our capital measures and scope to freeing up additional capital of the mentioned €3,000,000,000 from now through 2025. And as both James and I said in our prepared remarks, We see the outlook improvements regarding capital efficiency and Basel IV is providing us with the opportunity to both accelerate and expand our distribution Lightpath.

Speaker 2

Amongst other things, it gives us the confidence to go beyond our earlier expectations in terms of buyback potential already next year. The better than expected 3rd quarter RWA optimization and the improved outlook are both relatively recent changes. And hence, And hope you understand that it is a bit too early to provide exact details of how and when we will be in a position to accelerate Exactly this distribution path. And Nico, as you would expect, we are obviously in discussions with our supervisor on the revised Capital Plan. As we have laid down though, a very clear path for dividends, I.

Speaker 2

E, a 50% increase per year the next 2 years. Extra distributions would come in form of share buybacks. And subject to further dialogue with our supervisors, We would expect a significant proportion of the incremental capital to be distributed to our shareholders. And for instance, one way to think about this trajectory, Nico, from here is that it gives us the opportunity to move to a 50% payout ratio sooner than we initially expected. So I think at this point, we can safely say that shareholder distributions is a key priority Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 2

And for more details, I hand over to James.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thank you, Christian. And Nicolas, thank you for the question. So to give you a little bit of Color on what is the optimization been that we've accomplished so far. You've seen us do 3 securitizations over the past couple of quarters, including one on the Italian consumer portfolio in this quarter.

Speaker 3

And so that's been sort of quicker and more effective than we might have expected. And then when we talk about data and process improvements, the data is quite Powerful. And by the way, this is where also we're getting the POS Bank portfolio onto the same systems as DB is helpful because we're able to apply, For example, SME support factors, infra support factors on the portfolio in a way that we couldn't in the prior landscape. So it's enhancing the data, enhancing the way that we that our portfolio, if you like, interacts with the rules. We think there's still a distance to go with that.

Speaker 3

And although we've worked on it for years, as rules change, One always finds additional optimization measures. So that's been very encouraging. If I think about Your question about input, output, put floors on Basel III, we've really been focused on the 1,125 impact. Act. And as you've seen dramatic improvement based on better visibility into the FRTB models as we mentioned.

Speaker 3

At this point, the output floor is still some years away. So I think of that as biting maybe in 2,030. If you want guidance, we would probably stick with the $30,000,000,000 impact at that point. But to be fair, we haven't really done this next round of mitigation in terms of portfolio shifts and what have you. So that's still a long way out.

Speaker 3

Hopefully that helps, Nicolas, on your questions.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Adam Terolak from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Thank you

Speaker 6

for the questions. I have one on capital and one on revenues. I appreciate you don't want to front run exactly what we're going to look what this is going to look like in the short term. But you're on the tapes this morning discussing higher payout next year than in your original planning. Can you confirm that, that original plan was the plus 50% on the buyback to match the dividend increase?

Speaker 6

And can you also discuss whether we can look at more regular capital return over the next few years rather than having to wait for full year results each year? Secondly, on revenues, NII clearly stepped back in Corporate Bank, Private Bank this quarter. That's kind of been guided to, but can you give us some more color about the shape from here and use that to reference your confidence in revenue growth for the group into 2024. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Adam, and thanks for your participation. Look, let me start on briefly again on the capital question. And again, I think it's good order to discuss all the details with our regulator first. But I think You're right.

Speaker 2

The 50% dividend pass, we always said, and we also said that this is quite a good guidance for our past guidance on the share buybacks. So in this regard, I think you have a good assumption. And as I just said, I think with The scope now of the additional €3,000,000,000 obviously, we would like and we intend then to start increasing the share buyback already in 2024 beyond that what we already communicated in our previous correspondence. So clearly, an acceleration and expansion, that's our goal And that will focus now this is our focus in our discussions with the regulators going forward. With regard to The revenues, I will hand over to James for more details, in particular when it comes to NII.

Speaker 2

But also here, I think, very good message It's because the clear jump off point for 2024 is now the €29,000,000,000 in 2023. You have seen a good development in the 3rd quarter, Again, a very stable development. Also, by the way, on the NII side in both Corporate Bank and Private Bank, We see that momentum going forward into Q4, and therefore, there is a high confidence in delivering a €29,000,000,000 number for the full year 2023. On top of that, and I think we refer to that in our previous calls already, The geopolitical environment, the economic environment It's something where at the end of the day, the advice which is asked by the clients on the private banking side, On the corporate banking side, also with regard to our investment banking services is increasing and increasing. And therefore, we also said in our prepared remarks, A 40% increase in mandated deals from the corporates in these 1st 9 months of 2023 versus the same time period of 2022.

Speaker 2

It's just one signal how much we are actually and See the momentum with our corporate clients around the world to think about how to best position in these geopolitical situations where we are. And hence, in particular, also the investments which we are doing on the corporate side, in the investment banking, on the advisory side, The investments which we have done on the wealth management side, now the finalization of the Numis transaction We'll grow also the non NII business in 2024 a lot. And therefore, Seeing the stability actually also in the NII business in 2023 plus the growth we see from the advisory, Our clear goal is to show a 2024 revenue number of €30,000,000,000 Regarding the composition, James will outline further, but We can see a momentum which is simply unbroken.

Speaker 3

So Adam, a couple of things on your comments. Well, let me start with the comment that

Speaker 7

our group

Speaker 3

NII number It's a very noisy line. And we've talked about it before, the impact of the FX swap book And therefore, the rate differential between euros and dollars plays a role here as does hedging results and other parts of Treasury piece, which is why it's actually, I think, more instructive to look at the net interest income and the margins of the businesses, especially PB and CB. Now there we show you margins that were actually reasonably stable quarter on quarter, some pressure in PB and CB rather. But interestingly, this quarter, the principal drivers were not the deposit margins. There was, again, noise even at that level around mortgage hedging, for example, in the private bank, The excess of deposits over loans impacting The margin in the Corporate Bank, so things outside of the deposit margins.

Speaker 3

That difference was about $130,000,000 if you take the two businesses together. We think Q4 will be about the same level, so flat to that. Really as deposit margins come in a But some of this other noise kind of clears through the system. So as Christian says, we feel good about the trajectory Looking forward, 1, even 2 quarters in those two businesses. And that of support of course, supports our view going into 2024.

Speaker 3

I think the other thing just briefly you mentioned on the timing of the buyback and distribution announcements. It's a fair point. It would take a lot of pressure off of us and the supervisors to do this more frequently. And let's The short version. We want to the nice thing is if you split it out over the year, you can be a little bit more dynamic to the market environment and conditions.

Speaker 3

On the other hand, I think to some degree shareholders have sought the greatest degree of confidence as early as Possible. So we're going to need to balance those two things, but I could certainly envisage multiple requests in the year going forward.

Speaker 6

Brilliant. Thanks for that.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Adam.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Hallum from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning, everybody. Just 2 from my side. First, on cost, could you give us a sense of the size of the inflation headwinds you were able to offset and underlying costs in the quarter and maybe also where you'd expect to end the year given the Q4 one offs you flagged and how that sets the business up heading into 2024. And then secondly, maybe looking a bit further out to 2025, Obviously, the revenue momentum is working out in your favor as you just discussed, but there's also still a disconnect between your targets on cost to income ratio and return tangible equity for 2025 and the latest consensus. So just what are the main moving parts over the next 2 years that give you confidence on reiterating those 2025 targets.

Speaker 2

Yes. Potentially, I start on your second part, And obviously, James shall add. Look, on the difference in the 2025 targets, I think it comes from both sides. Number 1, a further increasing revenue line, James just outlined the 2024 pass, Our confidence in the €30,000,000,000 in 2024. And obviously, we see that momentum also going then into the next year in 2025.

Speaker 2

And in particular, in 2025, as we always said before, we have another NII tailwind actually in the private bank, which is not to be underestimated. So therefore, On the revenue side, Chris, further growth to be seen clearly. On the cost side, I'm really confident because you know that we have given the goal of €2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 already with our IDD in 2022. You know that this €2,000,000,000 is actually based on our so called key deliverables, I. E, the Germany optimization, the front to back, The technology architecture, the infrastructure efficiencies, real estate savings and so on.

Speaker 2

And there, we really have a high confidence to deliver and these €2,000,000,000 based on all the structural work which we have done over the last 18 months since the IDD, and we can see progress every quarter. On the remaining €500,000,000 obviously, we are working diligently, but also there, good progress. We discussed with you the reduction in force program in April. We have actioned on that. We have 900 reduction delivering more than €100,000,000 of annualized savings now from now on starting.

Speaker 2

James said it this morning, rightly so, we have additional measures, which are now in execution and in flight that we further reduce our workforce. By the way, also with regard to the overall remediation which we have seen over the last years. We can see now that we think we have seen the peak in our workforce and we will further reduce. And this, if you want to mention it, reduction in Force 2.0 will be from a size and number bigger Then the reduction we have seen in April, 1.0. So that is the next part.

Speaker 2

And in line with Our goal of achieving this additional €500,000,000 obviously, we are doing other things like 3rd party spending, whether it's consulting, marketing spending, which will save us a meaningful number also in 2024 versus 2023. We are obviously also with the peak in workforce, which we have seen. We are obviously very selective and cautious also when it comes to new hirings. And in this regard, we have very good sight on the €2,500,000,000 That with The growing revenue number, which I just outlined, we are in full confidence that we can achieve the 10% or what we always wanted to do and where we still stand by to actually exceed the 10% RoTE in 2025.

Speaker 3

So Chris, just on your inflation question and perhaps a little bit more on the targets. So inflation, it depends very much on what you're looking at. Compensation costs, elements of non compensation, for example, software, There can be quite varied impacts, but I would say we're facing across the world probably 4% to 5 inflation on average in both comp and non comp costs that we need to work to offset. So far, I think we've been quite successful in both line items. You need to work very hard on workforce composition.

Speaker 3

As Christian outlined, we've got a lot of measures underway there, whether it's internalization, location strategy Or just managing with discipline across the company. And then on the non comp, you've really got to focus on demand. And that's where I think that passing some of the, what I'll call, the inflection points that we've been passing, whether that's Technology implementations, whether that's control investment remediation, it does give us more flexibility to manage The demand side there. And so that gives us some comfort. If I think to run rates, Which I think was embedded in the second part of your question.

Speaker 3

We've talked over the course of the year about run rates, maybe made it too complex for you, but We're trying to manage in that $4,950,000,000 to let's say $5,000,000,000 per quarter in adjusted cost range. We've had some pressure this year, not just in inflation, which I think we've been successful offsetting, but also some of the investments that we've been making. In the Q4, we may have some additional sort of unexpected costs associated with POS Bank remediation That may push us up closer to or perhaps slightly above the $5,000,000,000 level in Q4. With all of that baked in, including The additional numerous costs, I think we talked about $4,975,000 back in July. But overall, a continued sort of evidence of, I think, discipline and control across the company.

Speaker 3

And that would represent a good step off also into 2024, whereas you know, the goal that we have and Christian just outlined is to continue to crystallize these cost savings measures in order to manage overall flat notwithstanding inflation and investments.

Speaker 8

Very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Chris.

Operator

The next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, thank you very much. I have two questions. First is on the backlog following the Postbank IT migration. Can you talk a bit about, yes, the implications on costs? I think you just mentioned it and revenues near term.

Speaker 9

And is there also risk as it could potentially delay the target of cost savings. And if you can please talk about I mean, if you can, about what we might expect In terms of potential actions by BaFin, could it be like fines, operational risks or similar? And then secondly on the NII or the headwinds to your revenues in the Bank, the higher funding costs. Should we expect you increase the deposit collection further in Q4 and expect further headwinds. And this is related to TLTRO maturities, if you can I mean, I guess, it Offsets the benefit of the higher rates, so how much more of a headwind should we see there?

Speaker 10

Thanks, Anke.

Speaker 3

I'll try to be brief. Look, we don't see a revenue impact of the Postbank integration or operational backlog issues, And we wouldn't necessarily expect 1 going forward. Obviously, we want to work hard to put these issues behind us and sort of pivot to a very different customer experience, and that's the focus of the management team there. You've seen a cost of provisioning cost impact in Q3 that could also extend into Q4. But ultimately, we would expect to get that back as really we get back on track in terms of the collections activity 0 in those two lines when all is said and done.

Speaker 3

On expenses, it's probably been in the high single digits in Q3 3 in terms of the remediation costs. And if you kind of look to that in Q4, somewhere between $30,000,000 to $35,000,000 of incremental spend on the remediation, but we would expect that to tail off relatively quickly in 2024 as we put the operational issues behind us and frankly invest in automation and improved capabilities going forward. So we feel it will be a temporary impact. As it relates to sort of crystallizing the long term benefits of the Uniti project, No change there. We're at work in app decommissioning and the various elements of the project that particularly on the technology side, we're going to drive The benefits.

Speaker 3

Too early to make any comments on fines, frankly. We're working very closely with the Baffin, collaboratively with them and the monitor, and I think our interests are very well aligned that we want to put the backlog behind us and cease any disruption to our clients. On the liquidity and funding costs, it's interesting. I mentioned earlier that it's this excess of liabilities over assets in the Corporate Bank that can sometimes be a drag. The interesting sort of corollary there is We haven't yet seen a benefit in the NIM of loan growth.

Speaker 3

And so for the Corporate Bank in particular and then at the group level, we would benefit from putting these the deposits to use. We're looking forward and believe that we should start to get some momentum in terms of loan growth going forward and hence that imbalance can begin to help us. As it relates to TLTRO, you've seen that we've you've pre funded some of the maturities, the December maturities. And so TLTRO is becoming a less and less impactful sort of part of our overall balance sheet and funding profile. Yes, there's a little bit of a drag going into 'twenty four coming in that, but that at this point is in sort of low very low double digits per quarter in the coming several quarters.

Speaker 2

We just had one point, Anke, To your first question, and James is absolutely right that there we don't expect an impact on our revenues. Just to support that, in Q3 'twenty 3 versus the previous year Q3. We increased, in particular, the German Private Banking business by 16%. And I think this is another evidence actually that from a revenue point of view, it is so far not affecting us and I also don't expect that. And I have to say what the people in the private bank are doing in Germany is a fantastic job.

Speaker 2

Actually, a, to make sure that we reduce the backlog and we are doing really good progress. And secondly, actually take care of our clients. So really good job done and I think it's evident in this Q3.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Nathan Nemes from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Good morning and thank you for your presentation. I have two questions, please. The first one, I want to go back to the €3,000,000,000 potential additional capital freed up in the next 2 years as a result of Basel IV and an RWA reduction. I was just wondering if you could give us a sense to what extent do you expect actually to deploy some of that additional capital into the business organically or perhaps inorganically?

Speaker 11

And if so, what Significant proportion is obviously for distribution. So that's the first question. And the second question is on the Corporate Bank. And I just wanted to pick up on the comment from you, James, on so far, you haven't Put those additional deposits into work, yet we are seeing a very small uptick in loans in the corporate bank. So the combination of the 2 suggests perhaps you have somewhat of a better outlook in terms of deployments and New Lending.

Speaker 11

If you could just share your thoughts on that. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, Marty, thank you very much for the question. And it's a great question. We've spent some time looking at This actually. And I want to give you a little bit of sort of color looking at the last seven quarters of where the capital has gone. So on average, we've generated about 27 basis points of capital each quarter over the last year and change.

Speaker 3

And this is what's interesting, about a third of that has gone to support The distributions that we've been making so far, the $1,750,000,000 About a 3rd has gone into the regulatory changes and about a third has gone into the ratio improvement up to now close to 14%. Almost none has gone into the business so far. And One of the reasons we think this sort of inflection point is so important is, first of all, we think we can step up the profitability. So the 27 basis points doesn't, By any means have to be the cap in terms of what we can generate. But I think there is scope to increase the business deployment beyond where what we've been doing the past couple of years, especially as that reg build Falls away and we're at a ratio level now that is entirely comfortable for us in terms of buffers.

Speaker 3

So there is capacity both for business deployment and for significant distribution increases. Now to your point about Corporate Bank, Yes, loan growth in the past year and change has been quite slow across both businesses. And We'd like to think that there's again some signs of life. You mentioned a small increase, about $1,000,000,000 in the quarter in loans in the Corporate Bank. We've been waiting for that to come.

Speaker 3

We'd like to see it and we think we may see it already in the Q4, but then extending into 2024. And with our loan to deposit ratio now again below 80%, we have the capacity to support loan growth both from a capital and from a funding perspective. So we do think We're turning the corner in terms of the ability to redeploy in both of those senses. In Private Bank, Perhaps a little bit more sluggish. As you know, we've made a decision not to kind of emphasize mortgage lending In Germany, both given the market environment and given capital requirements, but we think we have capacity to grow Margin lending in Wealth Management as that comes back to grow unsecured consumer lending.

Speaker 3

So That may take a little bit longer to come back, but also in that business, there is potential to grow loans to redeploy capital. Lastly, and this came up in a recent conference, we are careful in how we manage The capital that's committed to the investment bank. So those are portfolios that while there is opportunity to grow within our risk appetite, We are careful to manage the capital to that business, devoted to that business within constraints that we set. And so while we think there are attractive lending opportunities there. We're going to be cautious about growing, especially in an environment where there is still some uncertainty in the credit environment.

Speaker 3

So Look, short version is real capacity now for deployment in the businesses, while we're in a very different environment in terms of distribution

Speaker 11

That's great. Thank you, James.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Matti.

Operator

The next question comes from Stuart Graham from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I had 2, please, both on capital. First, can I just press a little bit more on the RWA optimization measures, please? I hear what you say on the past, I guess, at least 4 factors that you've been optimizing for a long time.

Speaker 7

And I guess I was surprised to find out that it's not happening this one call.

Speaker 3

How do you think about the

Speaker 7

opportunity to invest 3,000,000,000 of extra capital in growing the IB? On the one hand, Ex capital of the consensus 25 percent leverage ratio, I guess, just 4.6% suggest you've got a lot of scope, if you

Speaker 3

So Stuart, it's James. You were cutting in and out a little bit, But I'll go with what I believe the questions were and you may need to follow-up. On RWA optimization, to be honest, So were we surprised. We've been, I'd like to think at the more sophisticated end of this type of balance sheet management over the years And to find more opportunity is, on the one hand, encouraging, On the other hand, suggests that there was something left on the table in the past. Now the securitization piece is a step change in what we're looking at and willing to do.

Speaker 3

But we've as we've talked about before, we still like the economics of the securitization. So we would estimate, for example, that the revenue to RWA relationship of the securitization we did This quarter was about 1.5%, maybe 1.6%. And so we can redeploy that capital at better sort of equity margins, call it, than that. So there is still more to do. And as I mentioned earlier, as the data environment improves more and more, we see scope to continue optimization.

Speaker 3

Of course, Basel III is entirely new, so the work on the models there, The visibility into the impact of hedging strategies, that's also new. So it's a bit of an ongoing story. The redeployment I talked about a moment ago, really to Mate's question, again, There is scope to support growth in the businesses. But frankly, the extra capital that we now have Doesn't really change the growth potential of the businesses and won't change our risk appetite. As you know, we've been disciplined about risk And we also intend to be different disciplined around capital allocation, as I mentioned earlier, especially Recognizing that that's a focus of attention around the Investment Bank.

Speaker 3

And finally, on the leverage balance sheet, We see them as sort of moving a little bit in tandem. So as our CET1 ratio goes up, So too is the leverage ratio. And while there's a bit more flexibility in managing the leverage balance sheet, we think We can very comfortably remain in the mid to high 4s over time and if you like optimize the revenue footprint of that leverage balance sheet. So hopefully those answered your questions even though there was a little bit of signal challenge.

Speaker 7

Apologies for that. So you do see to the extent the U. S. Banks are pulling back because of Basel IV, you do see an opportunity in the investment bank or you don't?

Speaker 3

Well, what I'd say is the higher put it this way, the higher CET1 capital base or total capital base supports leverage balance sheet that's a little bit larger than it has been historically. But I do not see us changing dramatically our strategies, put it that way, in terms of leverage deployment. I would think that On a comparative basis, we've been on the more conservative end in terms of the deployment of our leverage balance sheet. And I don't see that changing dramatically, Stuart, Even in light of some of the changes that you're seeing in

Speaker 2

the U. S. And Stuart, To James' point, with no dramatic changes, I think if you talk to Ramnayak, he has The clear strategy where he wants to be in Europe, but also in the U. S. And that way he wants to be in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Was already for him in the plan before the potential changes to the Basel requirements for the U. S. Banks. So I agree with James.

Speaker 2

I think for us, it is good on the one hand that there is more capacity, but the strict adherence to risk return and to our capital allocation in this regard will not change. We want to grow our profitability. Now we have a bit more capacity to do this and we will do this, but we will not leave, a, our risk appetite nor our Clear reward expectations we have from the businesses.

Speaker 7

That's great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Stuart.

Operator

The next question comes from Tom Howlett from KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I suppose one of the debates for investors has been around the sustainability of profits and within that what normalized trading pools look like. If we take this year, it looks like your FICC revenues could land around the €8,000,000,000 mark with consensus expecting something similar over the next couple of years. But this is €2,500,000,000 higher than what we saw in 2018 2019. And I appreciate the rent environment is very different.

Speaker 12

There's been a bit of balance sheet growth there as well. So what makes you confident that the €8,000,000,000 is sustainable given pretty well documented normalization of the wider industry. And then secondly, on government taxes, it's been a key theme for the sector over the last few months. And again, I appreciate the impacts on you. Will it be limited so far, but do you see any risk for Germany to follow suit?

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you for your questions. Let me start. Look, what makes me confident on the fixed side that This kind of €2,500,000,000 higher than 3 or 4 years ago is something sustainable. It's 3, 4 points.

Speaker 2

But number 1, the healing of the bank. I mean, this is the most important if you talk to our institutional clients, but also to the corporate clients. And I cannot even tell you, and that was our focus, the transformation, the heating. And with that, obviously, the rating upgrades, which we have received from all the major rating agencies, That resulted in a completely different way how we can deal with our clients And that a lot of clients actually returned to Deutsche Bank. And to be honest, we are still in the documentations of clients who have returned after the last increase and improvement of the rating agencies because you know how long it takes to get the documentation ISTA agreements right.

Speaker 2

And in this regard, I can still see the benefits from that. So the healing of the bank is the one of the key reasons. Number 2, I think it's the focus which we have given ourselves and in particular Ram has done in the FICC business and the trading business. It was exactly right to focus on that, where we are strong from a regional point of view, starting with Europe, then obviously going into our emerging markets franchise, Also covering Asia, but also investing very focus in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And Ram has a clear plan how to grow also Our FIC business in the U. S. Over the next 12 to 18 months, and you put the right investments into that. Number 3, It's the front to end reengineering of our processes in FICC. Also that is obviously which is not only making us more But at the end of the day, front to end always results in one thing.

Speaker 2

This is client experience for our clients. And with that, obviously, we make ourselves more attractive to deal with us. So, I think It's the overall healing of the bank, but also the real focus and reengineering of the platform Ram has done to the FICC business, which Makes me comfortable that the €8,000,000,000 which we have seen so far is a very good number to actually plan for the future. And in my view, if I look at the at his plan to even increase from there. Nevertheless, we always said, We even want to make the investment banking business more balanced and therefore the investments into the O and A business.

Speaker 2

And also in the prepared remarks, we said how stable actually within the FICC business the financing part is. It's 35% of the FICC business And that is coming through year by year, I think, with a very good and solid underwriting scheme. Regarding government taxes, Look, it's always hard for me to judge what is coming. But on this end in Germany, on this side in Germany, I'm very calm. We have clear statements that this kind of excess taxes, I think, is not Supported in particular not by our Finance Minister.

Speaker 2

There is really no active discussion on this one. And therefore, it is for me a non topic.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. So firstly on capital, just one of the clarifications here. It doesn't seem like you're prepared to Increase the €8,000,000,000 overall capital return envelope, but it does seem that you're more confident on reaching that 50 payout sooner rather than later. Is that the best way to think about it? So that €3,000,000,000 capital That's being released as it were.

Speaker 13

That doesn't really become additive to the €8,000,000,000 And then with that, if we look at your actions to optimize capital And RWAs, I guess that reduces risk weight density. Is that the way you see it? And so that being the case, maybe Your guidance on the output floor there, your comments earlier are that we should maybe stick to the The €30,000,000,000 RWA impact there. And just very lastly on the Corporate Bank NII. That seems like the largest impact there is from the increase in liquidity reserve costs.

Speaker 13

What's your expectation there for how that should develop going forward, please?

Speaker 3

So Andrew, the answer to the first question is no, that's not the correct way to think about it. So think about it this way. We had a capital commitment to shareholders of $8,000,000,000 at a point in time where our outlook And our step off were weaker than they are today. What we're not able or willing to say at this Obviously, owe you an answer on that in time and we'll work through that internally on our capital planning and then with supervisors. But no, we would see it as incremental to the $8,000,000,000 In terms of optimization, it's complex just because at a point in time, we're going to need to optimize around the output floor.

Speaker 3

That's not something that we've really done. Ironically, the impetus there would be to take on Higher Risk Density Assets and so sort of optimize in that way. And actually, it goes a little bit also to Stuart's question. The what regulation asks you to do now Is run this complex optimization algorithm across all of those resources in time. So It's advanced approaches RWA.

Speaker 3

It will be standardized approaches RWA and then the leverage balance sheet. And we're going to need to find the optimal use of the balance sheet under all three of those tests. In the case of these the standardized we have until 2,030 when we think the output for BiTEs. I wouldn't expect just on the CBNII piece, I wouldn't expect that to change sequentially in the next couple of quarters. Again, A little bit depending on whether on how the loan and deposit sort of trajectory for the business go from here.

Speaker 3

We'd like to think we can continue to grow deposits and grow the loan balances, but It's the relationship between the two that really drives the question of the liquidity funding in the CB business.

Speaker 13

That's great. Thanks very much for that.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Andrew.

Operator

The next question comes from Kian Abu Hossain from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks for taking my two questions. The first question is related to activity. If you can clearly, you are tipping the gas pedal right now and driving revenues and you're doing really well in that respect. And it looks like you're indicating flattish costs.

Speaker 5

If you have to have the brakes Due to market conditions changing, can you talk about the flexibility of costs? As you indicate, there's a lot of stickiness, there's inflation in costs. And I just tried to understand your flexibility in that respect, how we should think about the elements of In a different environment, and how you model that internally? And then secondly, The question is regarding your remarks on cost of risk. You mentioned model changes and improved macro forecast leading to reversals in Stage 1 and 2 provisions.

Speaker 5

Can you help me understand what's driving this more optimistic outlook, please? And if you could talk a little bit about the health of large corporate and Mittelstand in particular clearly in Europe sorry in Germany.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Kean. Sure. Well, look, we've talked about this over the years, the P and L sensitivity. And I'd like to Think, in fact, I'm confident that both sides of that equation have improved over the last several years. So start with the revenue side.

Speaker 3

As our revenue mix has shifted over time, I think our revenue sensitivity has declined dramatically. And not just because more of the revenues are coming from the businesses that we describe as more stable, but also because the revenue composition in the Investment Bank, I think has firmed up as well and our market position, as Christian has outlined. So I think that revenue sensitivity is lower than you might think. And by the way, you also see us take relatively conservative decisions, whether that's about risk on our interest rate risk management. So we manage that.

Speaker 3

It's not just an accident. And then on the cost side, I have said over the years that less is of the cost base is variable than I would like it to be. I think that equation is also changing for the better. Let's start with just the investment profile. As we shift from, I'll call them non discretionary investments, investments that needed to be made in technology and in controls to a more discretionary profile, we can hit the brakes on those investments.

Speaker 3

And the other thing is that as we get deeper and deeper into the structural cost saves that Christian outlined, more of the cost base ends up being variable. And that can be variable compensation, but it can also be other elements of the cost base. So the short version, I think we're improving both aspects of that equation, Kian, relative to where we were a few years ago. On the cost of risk, just in the detail there, We had $100,000,000 net on the Stage 12. Actually, what that was, was $100,000,000 model benefit associated with the PD LGDs in the new wholesale and retail models, plus about $30,000,000 of FLI forward looking indicator benefits, offset by about $30,000,000 of in Stage 1 and 2 of portfolio changes, Including sort of internal ratings and that sort of thing.

Speaker 3

Now why did the FLI improve? The point in time is always hard to remember, but the last time we booked this on a quarterly basis was in July where The outlook for the soft landing, particularly in the U. S. Was actually less optimistic than it became through the Q3. So what you're seeing is a bit

Speaker 2

of a lag effect as to where things stood at that time. And Kieran, on your last question, I think on the German corporates, large corporates and Mittelstand. Look, we're observing a very stable situation in terms of their credit worthiness. They benefit hugely from the resilience. I think I said it in one of the previous calls, If I compare the situation of German Mittelstands clients with 15 years ago, we have a capital ratio, we have a liquidity ratio, liquidity position of those clients, which is in much better shape than 15 years ago after the global financial crisis.

Speaker 2

They all worked on themselves. So, I think despite the no growth situation in Germany, we can really attest a very resilient portfolio. And hopefully, with growth coming back in 'twenty four, albeit very low growth in 'twenty four, we then will also see that There is obviously growth coming back into those slides. So for the time being, also from our Rating downgrades versus upgrades, no negative or no deterioration to that what we have seen 3 or 6 months ago.

Speaker 5

Thank you. If I could just briefly follow-up on the cost flexibility and I know I've asked this question in the past. But you're trading at 0.3x tangible book value for a reason and that's a reflection of The concern that in a different scenario, you will not be able to manage cost to some operating leverage, let's put it this way. So can you quantify and give us more confidence in your cost stability and managing your cost stability in a different scenario?

Speaker 2

Look, let me start and James will follow-up. First of all, I do believe that it's most important for our credibility that That we achieved those cost targets, which we have given to the market, and we will do so. That's therefore, I ran you through the structural cost savings and that what we now put on top actually in order to get to the €2,500,000,000 Secondly, of course, if this would happen, you have 3 or 4 layers of costs where we can very quickly reduce the spending. That is the variable comp, which means with regard to investments. Obviously, we are reviewing those investments on a quarterly basis, Also adhering obviously to the profile on the business side and whether the performance It's the right one.

Speaker 2

I think we have a very good monitoring in place on this one. Secondly, yes, there is always The flexibility on the variable comp, which we obviously would adjust to the performance and to the revenue performance. I think we have also shown that in the past that we are able to do this and we will do this. So this is obviously, if you look at our variable comp, That is not an insignificant number, which we could reduce like for the CTB, I. E, change the bank investments.

Speaker 2

And then you have those items where Rebecca is going actively after already now, but which also plays into this one, Which is everything on 3rd party costs, which means also consultancy, which means marketing. And easily, in this regard, from a flexibility point of view, Kian, you are in a very high three digit million number. And in this regard, I would say this bank has clearly the ability to react. But most important for us is obviously to, 1st of all,

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Timo Dons from DZ Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Yes, hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got 2, please. One is on Q4 and The other question is on O and A.

Speaker 14

So starting with Q4, maybe you could provide some specifics on the one offs you flagged for the current quarter. So a Quantification maybe on the restitution of the National Resolution Fund and the year end adjustments, tax adjustments that you mentioned that would be helpful. So this would be my question number 1. And my second question It's on the outlook on O and A. So again, a strong recovery here.

Speaker 14

So what's your view on the last quarter? Should we expect another pickup despite the seasonal patterns? And what are your expectations looking further down the road? Thank

Speaker 3

you. Thanks, Timo. Briefly on the second question, Yes, we would see a continued improvement sequentially in O and A and we would look to a much more significant improvement going in then to 2024. So we're optimistic there. On the Q4 one offs, why don't I meet you halfway?

Speaker 3

On the DTA, I would expect and here it's a different geography from last year, where the DTA related to the U. S. I would size it today at about $500,000,000 of opportunity in the tax line, Potentially larger, it all depends on our forward looking view of profitability in the U. K. Entities and jurisdiction going forward.

Speaker 3

That's to the positive. The new missed goodwill, it's too early to give an exact number, given we're going through The purchase price allocation process sort of as we speak, but to give you a ballpark, I would expect us to book about 250,000,000 in a as a non operating cost around that Numis goodwill. The numbers that I Can't really guide you on today would be, 1, the restitution payment to the upside. And then as you all know, restructuring and severance and legal litigation items are always subject to some uncertainty. And so as we get more visibility, if we get an opportunity, we'll give you an update on that.

Speaker 3

I'd like to think the net of those four things is biased to the positive, but we have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Speaker 14

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Giulia Aurora Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. So the first one on CRE Commercial Real Estate. Thank you for the detail provided in the slides at the back.

Speaker 15

If I compare your level of provisioning, especially on the U. S. Side with what U. S. Banks have been seeing so far, This quarter, it seems like you have your provisions are lower.

Speaker 15

I was wondering what gives you the confidence of this relatively lower provisions in this bucket specifically, especially for U. S. Office, which seems particularly challenged. And then On Numis, I know it's early days. The acquisition closed 13th October, I believe.

Speaker 15

But I was wondering if you have any early thoughts that you would like to share now that this is part of Deutsche Bank. And then a quick technical one, DTAs, with all these DTAs being written back. What's the benefit for the tax rate in the coming years? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Julia. So I'll try to well, starting with the CRE, it's just hard to say because we have no insight into our competitors' portfolios. And so we can tell you what we think of ours. And as we've said sort of consistently from the start of this cycle, We think we have a high quality portfolio. It's to the extent it's concentrated.

Speaker 3

Obviously, there's an office exposure, but it's concentrated in Class A, strong sponsors and what have you. And what we're happy to share this time in the appendix material is frankly the experience that we've had. So now we're sort of 4 or 5 quarters into this cycle in commercial real estate and we think that the relationship between the loan modifications and the expected credit losses that arise from that speak to the quality of the portfolio. Now that we're call it halfway through that, But you can see that if trends continue or even deteriorate a little bit, this should be An entirely manageable situation, Farat. Coverage is hard to measure on a comparative basis, But we think we're taking provisions and collateral allowance and collateral together.

Speaker 3

We think we're sort of reasonably in line with the peers. On Numis, we're very excited about the transaction. I mean, the first few days and the process with the Deutsche Numis organization have been very successful. Both the Deutsche U. K.

Speaker 3

Corporate finance team going into Numis and the relationship with the Numis leadership and staff is off to a great start and the client feedback has been extremely positive ever since the announcement. So it's early days in terms of revenue production, if you like, but we're very encouraged by what we see so far. Ultimately, on the DTA, it doesn't really affect the tax rate. So you should expect us to advise on an effective tax rate Continuing to be in the sort of 29% to 30% range going forward, always a little bit of variation in that. But the DTAs are one off and I would think of it as complete, if you like, this year when we revalue the U.

Speaker 3

K. Tax characteristics.

Operator

The next question comes from Amit Goel from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Hi, thank you. So just coming back on the cost because obviously you've reiterated the conviction in terms of Getting down to that kind of €18,500,000,000 to €19,000,000,000 type level. I'm just curious, I mean, I think unless it's changed the exit rate for this It's a bit higher than the level achieved this year or will be. So I mean, When should we expect to see those costs coming out? So would that be more in the second half of 'twenty four Into 2025 or could it be sooner?

Speaker 16

And then secondly, just related to that, I mean, if costs do Proved to be a bit more sticky. Are you seeing potential distribution of the RWA efficiency savings as The other or another lever to help get to that 10% RoTE target or above? Or are these kind of just 2 very independent Thanks. And then just one follow-up. I guess Just mentioned obviously on PB, the revenue tailwind in 2025.

Speaker 16

I was just wondering if you can potentially size that or give us an indication of how much you're from Matt. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thanks, Amit. Look, actually, the middle part of your question is a really good one. The RWA and the RoTE are in fact linked. And ironically, you start to have a denominator problem and therefore, a strong to distribute capital in order not to have the RoTE dragged down by a higher tangible equity.

Speaker 3

In fact, you're seeing that already this year. The biggest part of the RoTE decline In the Q3 versus last year, it was just higher capital. The tax rate played a big impact as well, but leaving that aside, It's higher capital. So we are incentivized to push out capital. If I think about the exit rate, yes, The $5,000,000 is a little higher than we'd like it to be.

Speaker 3

And to your point, to get to a full year number of adjusted costs in line With this year, we would need to start bringing it down in the second half. But look, if we're traveling in the 4.9 to 5 area. Next year in each of the 4 quarters, we think we're doing okay. And we will To Ian's earlier question, we think we've got more levers to help to drive that going forward. On the tailwind into 'twenty five, this is some distance ahead, but I would quantify it $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 just from the deposit hedges kind of rolling over.

Speaker 3

So a nice tailwind for that business, for the PB business going forward. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jeremy Singh Ji from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi there. Thank you. Just a couple of quick numbers questions, please. The expectation was that you'd be getting to just over €400,000,000,000 of RWAs in 2025. If I adjust that for the undershoot today, the extra savings, the Basel IV, it would come out more like €370,000,000,000 Is that a fair expectation?

Speaker 10

Or is it likely to be higher than that with redeployment? So that's my first question. And then different numbers question on NII. You've talked a bit about deposit NII pressure in 4Q. If rates stay at this level And beta gets to its sort of medium term resting place and also term assets reprice fully, What would we be subtracting and adding to NII?

Speaker 10

And I'm particularly focused on the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank. So just those two big numbers, If we fully did the beta and fully repriced any term assets that take time, what would we be adding and subtracting?

Speaker 3

So Jeremy, on the RWA, I would in brief, I would anchor off of 380,000,000 rather than 370,000,000. So the walk was from, call it, 420, which was the earlier consensus number for the end of 2025, which we said was pretty close. We took that down to 405 with the 15 and now the 10 and the 15 improvement should get you to about 480 380, I'm sorry. That doesn't account for The redeployment, so we'll see if that number still holds. There may be more opportunity to redeploy than we had originally anticipated, which is why It's early days in a capital plan.

Speaker 3

In terms of fully phased in, I'll be honest, I haven't thought about it in the in just the 2 deposit books. And as I say, there's a lot of noise in the NII number. But in round numbers, We've on a reported basis, we've held steady at 13.5. Some of most of the NII upside that we saw this year actually went into the non interest revenue lines. If I look to a normalized level, you'd like to see it, frankly, at 13.5% or better, Especially going into 'twenty five and beyond given in the answer to Amit's question, The uplift that you get in both businesses from the deposit hedge is moving.

Speaker 3

So I whatever the dip is next year, Hopefully small. We think that we're sort of currently traveling at a baseline that's a pretty good baseline To grow from into 2025 and 2026, and that's before all of the non interest revenue upside that we see and that Krish So that underscores, if you like, the optimism we have for the revenues next year and beyond. And we don't see any reason why the compound annual growth rate target would actually step back Significantly from here over the next 2 years. So it's at 3.5% to 4.5% is something that you'd like to say think we can achieve from this point or even better.

Speaker 10

Thanks. That's very helpful.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Silke Zippa for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much for your questions. If you have any further inquiries, please reach out to the Investor Relations department. And We say thank you very much. Take care and goodbye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

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Key Takeaways

  • Generated €5 billion profit before tax in the first nine months of 2023 after €950 million of non-operating costs, achieving a post-tax RoTE of 7% (9% ex-non-operating costs) and progressing toward the >10% 2025 target.
  • Recorded 6% revenue growth to €22.2 billion with €39 billion of net inflows in Private Bank & Asset Management and €18 billion of deposit growth in Q3, reflecting strong business momentum.
  • Delivered 4% operating leverage (revenues +6%, adjusted costs +2%) in 9M and maintained a cost/income ratio around 73%, and expects to keep adjusted costs flat for the full year despite inflation.
  • Finished Q3 with a 13.9% CET1 ratio; RWA optimization has cut €10 billion so far, raised the RWA reduction target to €25–30 billion and reduced projected Basel III impacts by €10–15 billion, freeing up ~€3 billion of additional capital.
  • Completed migration of 50 billion Postbank records but faced operational backlogs, which have been reduced by two-thirds through staffing increases and automation, with 70% of critical processes back to service levels by end-October and full recovery expected in Q4.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00