Douglas Dynamics Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Douglas Dynamics Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, There will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Nathan Ellwell, VP of Investor Relations, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining us on today's call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments that will be made during this conference call, including answers to your questions, will constitute forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in yesterday's press release and in our filings with the SEC.

Speaker 1

Please note earlier this morning, we filed a short supplementary set of slides to accompany this call, which can be found in the IR section of our website, zerglasdynamics dynamics.com and in our SEC filings. Joining me on the call today is Bob McCormick, President and CEO and Sarah Lauber, EVP and CFO. Bob will provide an overview of our performance, followed by Sarah reviewing our financial results and guidance. After that, we'll open the call for questions. With that, I'll hand the call over

Speaker 2

to Bob. Please go ahead. Thanks, Nathan. Good morning, everyone. At first glance, this quarter's results don't look so positive.

Speaker 2

But if you look beneath the surface, the positives are there. The best news is that our Solutions segment improved its top and bottom line results significantly. Solutions sales increased double digits and adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 7.3%, A big jump compared to the same period last year. The team was able to increase the velocity of outfits moving through our facilities and operate more effectively, especially at our Desjana operations. As expected, as this year's preseason shipment mix Shifted more heavily towards the Q2, the Attachments segment had a difficult comparison to a relatively strong Q3 2022.

Speaker 2

However, when combined, the second and third quarter attachments results were comparable to recent years. With that said, let me provide an update on the external headwinds facing our businesses over the past few years. The good news is we continue to see improvement in both component supply and labor availability. When it comes to the supply of components, We're in good shape for the most part at Attachments. And while there still are issues with some products that our solutions teams use in their outfits, The situation is much improved.

Speaker 2

The labor market situation is significantly better than it was in previous years. We are seeing higher retention rates, plus more and higher quality candidates applying for open positions. So having said that, the most significant remaining headwinds for us are chassis supply and more recently weather. Let's talk about those in more detail. While we saw some improvement in chassis supply in the 3rd quarter, We believe this was a temporary change and partly due to the OEMs sensibly building inventory ahead of the UAW strike.

Speaker 2

The tentative agreements that are now in place to end the strike are great news for the entire industry. To date, we have not seen an impact of the strike on our operations, But the truck plants going out on strike in October will have an impact on our business at some point in the future. At the moment, our best guess is in the Q1 of 2024. Trying to predict When chassis supply will return to historical levels has been a real challenge. The experts are now projecting that 20 will be similar to 2023.

Speaker 2

At this point, we think it's prudent to assume No material improvement in chassis supply over the next few years. This really underlines the importance of our growth initiatives to achieving our long term goals. Let's move on to weather, which has significantly impacted our financials in 2023. As you all know, our business has always been influenced by weather. Although the addition of the solutions business has lessened this influence, Attachments is still the main profit driver at Douglas.

Speaker 2

This past winter was unique and we are still navigating its impact on our business both this year and next. As you can see on Slide 4 in the deck Nathan mentioned earlier, weather patterns are changing. For the last 4 years, we have seen a La Nina weather pattern, which is not ideal as it tends to produce less precipitation in key regions of the snow belt. Now we are shifting into an El Nino pattern, which is projected to be in place for the next 3 years. And the weather experts we follow confirm these are typical trends that have been seen many times before.

Speaker 2

Now while we know better than most that nothing is guaranteed with winter weather, an El Nino pattern typically Brings more precipitation overall during the winter, which increases the odds of returning to average snowfall or better at some point during the El Nino cycle. We're proud of the fortitude being demonstrated consistently by our teams and continue to implement cost control initiatives as part of the low snowfall Playbook plus continuous improvement projects making the right moves internally to limit the impact of the snowfall headwinds wherever we can. Okay. Let's look at each segment. Getting with Work Truck Attachments.

Speaker 2

Sales were down compared to last year due largely to lower volumes, which impacted profitability. As expected, preseason order demand for our products was soft following a snow season that was one of worst on record in our core markets along the Eastern seaboard from Baltimore to Boston. For the 2023 preseason, The mix was very unusual, coming in at approximately 65 to 35 compared to 2022 where the quarterly mix was a more typical 55 to 45. However, when you look at the second and third quarters combined, the The story is different. Adjusted EBITDA in 2023 was only slightly lower than the preseason last year and considerably higher than 2021.

Speaker 2

And even though our dealers corrected their retail inventories Through softer preseason orders, we suspected that additional inventory corrections may take place in Q3 and even into Q4. Our recent dealer checks indicate overall inventory levels still remain above the 5 year average And our highest in the East Coast cities, which saw very little snow last winter. This is a direct result of a Quiet start to the retail selling season late in Q3. Remember, a snowplow's replacement cycle gets lengthened When the blade doesn't hit the pavement in low snowfall environments, thus impacting retail sales at the beginning of the next season. So not only did we see reorder softness late in Q3, but expect to see additional softness in Q4 as well.

Speaker 2

I am pleased to say that both dealer sentiment and financial health remain positive. Like us, our dealers have dealt with low snowfall before. And one of the great things about this business is that each snow season stands on its own. We are ready to execute and look forward to the start of the 2023, 2024 winter season. Our teams have been successfully controlling and delaying spending and managing costs, while still making the really necessary investments to fuel long term growth.

Speaker 2

Based on our leading market position And the changing demand dynamics we've talked about previously, the medium to long term outlook for the Attachments business remains very strong. Turning to our Work Truck Solutions segment. Our 3rd quarter sales increased 18% and we were pleased with the margin improvements, These were due to improved pricing, volumes, chassis supply and operating efficiencies. The same applies on a year to date basis, with net sales increasing 15% and adjusted EBITDA approximately doubling compared to the previous year. We did see higher volumes this quarter and more predictable supply of chassis, We were able to drive greater efficiency, particularly at our Dejana operations.

Speaker 2

As we previously said, improvements in profitability are for the full year and we have now entered the solutions businesses seasonally strong 4th quarter. And while we're delivering on those short term profit improvements, there are still several positive trends that bode well for the long term. 1st, demand remains strong as trucks get worn out, negatively impacting their productivity and are even in more need of being replaced. We still have a massive backlog to work through and cancellations are minimal. And finally, we continue to drive baseline profit improvements, a key component of reaching our long term financial targets.

Speaker 2

This quarter shows that our solutions teams Continue to battle through headwinds and our hard work being done behind the scenes does pay off as we drive more velocity through our facilities. In summary, we are executing well on the factors we control under challenging conditions. As you can see in our supplemental slides, overall, our internal growth drivers are on track to contribute significantly to EBITDA growth in 20 23. These drivers include pricing actions, new product introductions and baseline profit improvement projects. On aggregate, the internal growth drivers contributed almost 50% more than we initially planned.

Speaker 2

We are incredibly proud of the entire team that worked hard to make this happen. Now, Let's go back to the 2 most significant external drivers, snowfall and chassis. Snowfall is clearly impacting our 2023 results, essentially negating the positive impact of our internal growth It's also the reason we are lowering our guidance this year. If chassis supply remains stuck in neutral, It may take longer than we planned to get to our $3 EPS target. Sarah will speak to this later in the call.

Speaker 2

I would like to finish with these three thoughts. 1, while external headwinds are hindering our success, each quarter compared to the last year. Demand and backlog remains strong, positioning us for long term growth. And 3, the impact of low snowfall is temporary. And as our Attachments group has done many times over the years, They're improving their long term profit profile.

Speaker 2

Bottom line, ladies and gentlemen, our $3 EPS targets are achievable, And we are laser focused on getting there. With that, I'd like to pass the call to Sarah to walk through the financials.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bob. Overall, our results this quarter were lower than the Q3 of 2022, driven by the impact of last winter's low snowfall in the Attachments segment. Importantly, the story was positive at Solutions, which delivered top and bottom line growth with margin improvements compared to On a consolidated basis, our 3rd quarter net sales were $144,100,000 compared to 100 and $6,100,000 in the same period last year, driven by the lower volumes and attachments. Gross profit margin declined slightly to 22.3% compared to 24.8% in the Q3 of 2022 as the margin impact of lower volumes and attachments was partially offset by improved operating results at Solutions. SG and A expenses decreased 6.2 percent to $18,000,000 during the Q3 due to a decrease in Incentive and stock based compensation and the impact of curtailing spending as part of our low snowfall playbook.

Speaker 3

Interest expense increased to $4,600,000 primarily due to higher interest on revolver borrowings And the effective tax rate was 16.4% for the Q3 of 2023 compared to 17.9% in the same period last Both rates are lower than typical with the 2023 rate being impacted by a tax Benefit related to the purchase of investment tax credits and the 2022 rate being impacted by a discrete tax benefit related to state income tax rate changes. The impact of lower volumes and attachments flows through to the bottom line with net income of $5,800,000 which equates to $0.24 of diluted earnings per share, both coming in lower than the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased $7,800,000 to 17 point $3,000,000 when compared to the Q3 of last year. These decreases were driven by lower attachments volume, partially offset by pricing realization and baseline profit improvements in both segments. Now let's turn to the earnings information for the 2 segments.

Speaker 3

For the Q3 of 2023, Attachments net sales were $75,900,000 lower than the $108,200,000 in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased to $12,300,000 due to the lower volumes and unfavorable product mix, which impacted profitability. In preseason shipments this year, the mix was quite unusual at 65 35 compared to 55 to 45 in 2022. While we knew the Q2 would be larger and more profitable than the Q3, the swing was greater than we anticipated as a result of elevated dealer inventory and lower than expected reorder activity. The shift to 60 535 was driven by lower dealer demand, not a result of operations.

Speaker 3

The results of the dealer inventory survey matches with the lack of reorder activity we saw, especially when combined with the lower than the preseason last year and higher than the preseason period in 2021. Our adjusted EBITDA margins in the combined period were also strong at 25.2%, which is in line with our mid to high-20s margin Turning to solutions. Solutions had a great quarter compared to last year with net sales increasing 18% to $68,200,000 based on price realization, higher volumes and improved chassis supply. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $5,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin improved considerably by 3 50 basis points to 7.3%. Again, this was due to improved pricing and volume plus operating improvements from labor efficiencies.

Speaker 3

With the improved number of chassis available This quarter, our teams were able to drive greater efficiency, which drove improved in profitability. Overall, demand also remains Positive and we still have a very strong backlog to work through. Also, it's worth noting that on a year to date basis, The Solutions segment has delivered margin improvement each quarter compared to last year. At this point, We are on track to deliver mid single digit EBITDA margins for the year. All in all, great progress at Solutions.

Speaker 3

Now let's look at our balance sheet and liquidity. Net cash used in operating activities for the 1st 9 months of the year Decreased $10,300,000 to negative $64,100,000 from negative $74,500,000 last year. The combination of elevated working capital and lower sales volumes resulted in a lower seasonal increase of receivables and inventory. On a year to date basis, free cash flow increased to negative 71,900,000 from negative $83,400,000 for the 1st 9 months of 2022. The increase of 11 point $600,000 of total liquidity comprised of $11,100,000 in cash and $48,500,000 of capacity on the revolver compared to $120,200,000 in total liquidity at the end of 2022.

Speaker 3

The change versus the end of 'twenty two is primarily due to the seasonality of our business as well as an increase of $50,000,000 in borrowing capacity on our revolver following the amendment implemented at the start of this year. Inventories were 147 point $3,000,000 at the end of the quarter, higher than the $133,800,000 in the Q3 of 'twenty two, but considerably lower than the $184,600,000 at the end of the Q1 2023. Compared to last year, we exited the 3rd quarter with higher levels of snow and ice inventory due to the impact of low snowfall. Accounts receivable at the end of the quarter were $165,300,000 almost exactly the same as at the same in 2022. Year to date, capital expenditures were $7,700,000 lower than the 8 point $9,000,000 in the same period last year and in line with our expectations after we deferred some investments as part of the low snowfall site book.

Speaker 3

As you know, we implemented our low snowfall playbook earlier this year and expect total CapEx for the year to be on the lower end of our typical range of 2% to 3% of net sales. At the end of the quarter, we had a net debt leverage ratio of approximately 3.2 times, temporarily above the top end of our targeted range of 1.5x to 3x. We paid our quarterly cash dividend of $0.295 per share at the end of the quarter and the dividend remains our top priority as it has been for the past 13 years. Okay. Turning to our outlook.

Speaker 3

As you probably saw in our press release, we decided to reduce our guidance ranges We reduced the net sales outlook by $10,000,000 and now expected to be between $610,000,000 and $640,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA is now predicted to range from $77,000,000 to $92,000,000 $8,000,000 lower than the previous range. That means our adjusted earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $1.30 per share to $1.70 per share, dollars 0.25 lower than the previous range. Finally, our effective tax rate is now expected to be approximately 24%. It's important to remember that our outlook assumes relatively stable economic conditions, stable to slightly improving supply of chassis and components and that our core markets will experience average snowfall levels in the 4th quarter. Let me walk through our reasoning.

Speaker 3

There is one factor for the changes we've made to our guidance this year, snowfall. The impact of low snow drove the change we made to our guidance in April and the change we're making to the guidance today, As we are now predicting further impact from the historically low snowfall on the East Coast this past winter, where snowfall totals were down up to 90% in some of our core markets. The information we received in October from our dealer inventory checks indicated that despite our dealers placing lower preseason orders, their inventory still remain above the 5 year average, which we noted could happen on our last earnings call. Dealers are telling us that initial retail activity at the start of this season have been light, especially on the East Coast. Therefore, we believe there will be a further impact on the Q4 Plow retail season.

Speaker 3

As always, The extent of that impact will largely depend on the snowfall we experience across our core markets east of the Mississippi through the end of the year. Now that we're into the last quarter of 2023, the logical next question is, can we still reach our goal of $3 of adjusted earnings per share in 2025. While it's still possible for us to get there, When we look at our latest internal projections, we recognize that the ongoing headwinds continue to hinder our progress and are turning what was an Achievable goal into a stretch goal. In short, while we remain confident we will get to $3 per share, The timing is now in question. There are 3 key factors to discuss embedded in our longer term $3 target.

Speaker 3

First are the baseline profit improvements and growth projects that our teams are focused on to get to the margin profile We have targeted in Attachments and Solutions. In 2023, we have been outperforming for our internal plans as we have been laser focused on the things we can control. We will not slow down in these areas. 2nd is the assumption around chassis. Our initial long term goals assumes consistent chassis supply, which We just haven't seen in recent years.

Speaker 3

Probably more importantly, industry prognosticators are now predicting that chassis supply In 2024 is not expected to grow back to pre pandemic level, but rather expect Supply to be flat to 2023. And although we applaud the tentative agreement to end the strikes, It's too early to tell what the OEM shutdown impact will have on our supply in 2024. We expect to know more in February when we lay out our 2024 guidance. 3rd is the assumption around average snowfall, which was significantly lower in this last snow season. Just returning to average Snowfall should have a significant year over year earnings impact.

Speaker 3

To provide some initial Context around this discussion in light of the many moving variables, I will say that with the assumptions that Chassis supply is expected to be flat to 2023 and an assumed return to average snowfall. Our expected 2024 guidance will be at or above our February 2023 guidance. This would be a greater than 30% increase at the midpoint from our current guidance. This is only to put context around how we're thinking about 2024. We will provide our actual 2024 guidance in February.

Speaker 3

Finally, I want to talk to the positives. From an operational standpoint across the board, we executed effectively. The Solutions segment is showing strong improvements on a year to date basis and remains on track to show margin growth in 2023 versus A year ago, the ongoing positive demand dynamics we see in solutions coupled with the still strong back What we have to work through bodes well for the medium to long term. We're incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished With that, we'd like to open the call for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Today's first question comes from Mike Schliske with D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Sarah, one of your last comments there yes, hey Sarah, so So one of your last comments there was about if snowfall was back to average again, the 2024 guidance would be quite a bit above 2023 guidance. I'm curious, let's say 2020, let's say the snowfall this year is again really, really low And you have a similar snowfall this winter the last winter. When you if you were to give guidance again in February, Given some of the operational issues that you've made, do you think you'd be at a higher base in 2024 just on some of the internal efforts that you've made growth areas like your non truck mounted, snowplots, etcetera?

Speaker 3

Yes. Great question, Mike. Yes, I don't want to lose sight of the internal growth drivers that we've been working so hard on and over delivering this year. When we think about going forward, the growth drivers that we've been focused on, That's what's working towards improving the solutions margins and improving our attachments margin longer term. And those projects are embedded in the business.

Speaker 3

So it's very logical to think that the base is going to be higher. I would say the hesitation at this point because we're not at February of 2024, so we have a lot of moving variables and with the strike

Speaker 4

Okay. Then I also wanted to ask about The dividend, you just you did mention in your comments, Sarah, in passing, but I'm curious, what's your confidence level? What's the Board's thought and your thought about the dividend for next year? Do you have the confidence and let's say a base level or what you think will be average snowfall? You have confidence that you can keep the cash flow going to keep that dividend at or above where it is today?

Speaker 3

Absolutely, Mike. There's no shift in the philosophy of the dividend. We have had a sustainable dividend and we've increased it 15 times. The expectation would be that we continue to Prioritize the dividend and keep it sustainable and increase it as we can. So that Has not changed.

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me echo what Sarah just said. It is the number one cash deployment priority for Douglas and that's not changing.

Speaker 4

Okay. Great. And then lastly, great

Speaker 3

Sure, absolutely. So Henderson has had a little bit different dynamic, as you know, Mike, on the chassis So Class 7 and 8, maybe a little bit more predictable, still very long lead And we are experiencing a little bit of what I would call late changes on chassis, The team has been navigating through that very well. We improved in the 3rd quarter, expect to improve further in the 4th quarter. Also another big piece of the solutions improvement expected for the year comes out of Henderson from a price realization perspective, as you know, we have a very large backlog at Henderson. And so as we were going Through the inflation that we experienced, we were implementing pricing, but much of that is dependent on when we get the chassis to build the truck.

Speaker 3

So that will continue to improve and improve this quarter and I expect it

Speaker 4

Okay. I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thanks Mike.

Operator

The next question comes from Tim Wojs with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, everybody. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Jim. Good morning, Jim.

Speaker 5

Maybe just On Q4 in Attachments, I guess, what are you kind of embedding In for maybe growth in EBITDA in the Q4 in that business. And it wasn't clear to me if you're Assuming average snowfall in Q4 at this point or if you're assuming something kind of below average just given the slower start to the retail season?

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes, it is a little bit different this year as we're talking about the slower retail at the end of Q3, Which also translates into, I guess, the beginning of Q4. So when I think about our 4th quarter Forecast, we're absolutely assuming average snowfall. It's very important that we do see the snowfall in, Call it November, December when it's more typical to snow and I say that as I look out the window and it's snowing like crazy here in Milwaukee. But so from that standpoint, we are assuming average snowfall, although we have accounted for the fact that the retail Season started out slower.

Speaker 3

So it's also maybe a little bit more compounded, confusing, I guess, When you think about Q4 last year was a very low comparison because we had Very low snowfall then. So when it comes to EBITDA growth, we're still expecting to grow in the 4th quarter As we compare it to that low snowfall comp, but we have accounted for what we've talked about with the guidance change.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. So just having average snowfall in the guide relative to low snowfall last year, you did get some growth out of that, it should be the base expectation?

Speaker 3

Yes, correct.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. Got you. And then I guess on The solutions business, just I mean, how big of a gap or like an air pocket Could you see in some of the chassis related kind of issues from the strikes? I mean, has anything actually been communicated to you guys?

Speaker 5

And I guess, Just any detail around how long you were shut for and just kind of how you would think about the puts and takes to that in 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. I would say, there's one facility that's probably the most impactful to us, which was the facility in Kentucky for Ford. So the amount of time that that was shut down, we know it's going to have an impact. We do not have any communication from the OEMs on what that impact will be, which is why we are saying We do expect something is probably going to be closer to early 2024 than late 2023, But it is it still remains to be seen.

Speaker 2

Yes, I guess I would also add, I made a comment that we saw Some increased chassis supply coming our way late in the Q2 early in Q3, Which is just what the OEMs ought to do and that is they're going to build a little bit of inventory ahead of the strike just in case. So we're able to work through that inventory now. The question becomes when they turn the spigot back on and start ramping back up, How long is that process going to be? And how long will our little temporary Positive movement in terms of chassis supply lasts us before it runs into issues, Tim. And I think We're feeling pretty good about the 1st part of Q4.

Speaker 2

We get into the month of December and that's when we start to see some potential challenges. And again, I think they've got to get their business model back in place When all the contracts are signed and then they'll start communicating with us as to what the future looks like, but we should expect an impact in Q1. We just don't know how to quantify that at this point.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. No, understood. And then I guess just last question I have. Just Page 3 of the presentation that you sent out, Could you just maybe I know there's no numbers here, but could you actually add some numbers to what maybe some of these internal initiatives are kind of contributing?

Speaker 5

Just to give people a feel of like what the kind of the baseline profit improvement or the some of the things that you're doing on a core basis are kind of generating This year?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'm chuckling a little bit, Tim, because there's no numbers there. We usually don't get that on these things, but I guess I'll put some context around it. When you think about the margin improvements that we're expecting in solutions to get to mid single digits. A lot of that is driven by a lot of the initiatives that are Shown pictorially on that page, in addition to the price realization, that we've been talking about, Which really is across our entire business is also in that.

Speaker 3

When you think about the snowfall The negative impact, we're being very clear that the two changes that we've had to make to guidance was really all due to snow Paul, so you can get kind of a context of the impact that that negatively, which has been offsetting the internal drivers. The good news is snowfall is temporary. The internal growth drivers that we've completed are going to be part of the business going forward.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. I appreciate the help. We'll talk to you guys soon. Thanks.

Speaker 2

You too.

Operator

The next question comes from Greg Burns with Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Just in terms of the outlook for the Solutions segment, I know The impact of the strike is kind of unknown, but if you're expecting chassis supply to be relatively similar to this year, what does that imply for your growth outlook for that Business next year, will you be able to still drive growth there even if chassis supply doesn't improve meaningfully?

Speaker 2

Well, there's 2 elements to our growth plans within the Solutions Group, Things that we control, which we've talked about quite a bit today, the internal profit drivers, And we've made some excellent progress there in 2023. We've got additional plans in the solutions and the attachment side on those initiatives in 2024 and 2025. So we ought to continue to see EBITDA and profit growth on the solutions side driven by things under our control. The question is what impact will chassis supply have on that? Sarah just talked about Whether negating a fair amount of the internal growth drivers, the question will be How does chassis supply impact solutions profit growth next year?

Speaker 2

So we're going to get the internal growth factors there. It's going to continue. We got the plans. We know what the initiatives are. The teams are executing.

Speaker 2

If we get If chassis in 2024 in total look like they did in 2023, you're going to continue to see sequential Solutions profit improvement, right, Sarah? I mean, I think that's a fair way to look at it. What we're trying to do here, I'll go back to a comment I made, right? One of the external assumptions on getting to $3 a share at 0.2 5, was we get some consistent chassis supply and it returns to some level of historical norms. At this juncture, we do think it's prudent to say, you know what, let's just say that's not going to happen for a while.

Speaker 2

So now we can go back and our teams can work on trying to determine what additional internal Profit driver initiatives that we have to put in place to try and make up for whatever earnings gap that, that creates. We're early in our planning process right now. By the time we get to the February Call will be in a much better position to speak to what that looks like. I just think it's good business Not to sit back and keep your fingers crossed, keep hoping for something that every 12 months they push it out another 12 months. I know it's a long winded answer, But we're just we're going to get on with life and we're going to figure out ways to continue to get to the $3 target Even as these headwinds

Speaker 4

persist. All right.

Speaker 6

And then on the attachment So with some of the new products like the non truck attachments and some of the other things you're doing to expand your addressable market there, how are those initiatives Impacted by low snowfall. Is that is demand down there? Or can you continue to still grow there just because They're more greenfield and you're able to take gain market share in those new areas. Yes.

Speaker 3

It really is a mixture of both, Greg. We do have new products that we don't necessarily sell a lot of today that have More runway for growth, but they are impacted by low snowfall for sure. And then some of the other products that we've been growing successfully over the last several years, We expect that to continue. But what we're seeing right now in 2023 is clearly more of an impact of low snowfall. We expect getting back to average will certainly show up on those growth

Speaker 6

Okay. And then just lastly on The margin profile of the Attachments business, I know you mentioned that Mid to high 20% target there, but with all the Underlying improvements and initiatives you have going on, if volume recovers, Is there margin upside there from where you've been historically? Like could you see that go into the 30s? How should we think about the longer term profitability of that business if volumes do recover?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, we were at that higher level a number of years ago prior to all of the inflationary pressures that we've experienced. I would say right now the mid to high 20s is the right place to be with the high 20s being What we would experience with more volumes coming through, I noted in the script, the preseason for us in total, we were At the mid to 25 percent level, and think about that, that's still like on a lower volume base Then what's typical during an average snowfall year. So there's definitely room to go from mid to high just with recovery of snow and that's probably where I would stay right now just

Speaker 2

Thank you. To be conservative. Yes. I think I would add just something that we've spoken to before. Our core business there is obviously the it's the pickup mounted snow and ice control equipment, very, very profitable and that's what drives The near 30 percent EBITDA margins.

Speaker 2

The growth opportunities that exist in the non truck space, While still nicely profitable, we'll not rise to those same 30% high EBITDA. So as we see some top line growth there, we will take the incremental earnings and And the incremental earnings per share all day long, even if it doesn't reach Those historical wonderful levels of profit.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Seeing no further questions in the queue, I would like to now hand the call back

Speaker 2

To our long term investors, thank you for your support during challenging times. Our company is built to manage through uncertainty and that's exactly what we're doing. The medium to long term demand trends The future is bright at Douglas Dynamics. Our teams are driving earnings growth in 2023, which has been completely offset by one of the worst Thank you very much. We look forward to seeing some of you at the Baird Conference next week in Chicago.

Speaker 2

Have a terrific day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Douglas Dynamics Q3 2023
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