Nexa Resources Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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October 31, 2023

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Nexa Resources Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. This event is being recorded and is also being broadcast via webcast and may be accessed through Nexa's Investor Relations website, where the presentation is also available. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr.

Operator

Rodrigo Camarosano, Head of Investor Relations, for opening remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Nexa Resources' 3rd quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Thanks for joining us today. During the call, we will be discussing the company's performance as per the earnings release that we issued yesterday. We encourage you to follow along with this on screen presentation through the webcast. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to Slide number 2, as we will be making forward looking statements about our business.

Speaker 1

And we just ask that you refer to the disclaimer and conditions surrounding those statements. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us today is our CEO, Ignacio Rosado our CFO, Jose Carlos del Valle and our Senior Vice President of Mining, Leonardo Coel. So now, I will turn the call over to Ignacio for his comments. Ignacio, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rodrigo, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Please let's move now to Slide number 3, where we will begin our presentation. Let me start by providing you a brief overview on our Q3 of 2023. We continue to experience a scenario of downward pressure on metal prices, driven by negative external factors such as inflation and high interest rates in the U. S.

Speaker 2

In addition to uncertainty about the performance of key sectors of the Chinese economy. Although the prices of our main metals have performed at levels below our expectations, we remain committed to our financial discipline, which made possible to have a positive cash generation in the Q3 of this year. Our operating performance was in line with expectations in our Mining and Smelting segments. In both segments, we also provided cash cost guidance revised downwards. Total revenue reached $649,000,000 and was down 8% year over year, mainly due to lower zinc LME prices and smelting sales volumes.

Speaker 2

Compared to the last quarter, net revenues increased by 4% as a result of higher mining production and metal sales volume in the period, which were partially offset by lower LME metal prices. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 32% year over year, reaching $82,000,000 This performance was mainly explained by lower LME prices. Compared to the Q2 of this year, adjusted EBITDA grew 14% due to higher metal sales, mine production and lower costs in Brazil. We revised the Aripuana production range downwards for the year given the limitations we found related to the design capacity of the flotation pumping system, which resulted in the extension of the ramp up phase. Nonetheless, 2023 production estimates for Nexa's other mines and smelters remain unchanged.

Speaker 2

Our Cerro Pascua integration project is advancing as expected. Exploration project evaluation and other expenses were reduced by 15%. However, we are still prioritizing the expansion of the resource and mineral resource base in our mines. I would like to close this slide by mentioning that we have successfully closed a $320,000,000 sustainability linked revolving credit facility, which will support Nexa's liquidity profile and is linked to our carbon reduction key performance indicators. Jose Carlos will go into details later on in the presentation.

Speaker 2

Now moving to Slide number 4. Regarding the operating performance of the mining segment, you can see that zinc production increased to 837,000 tons, up 15% year over year, mainly explained by the increase in treated ore volume and the startup of the Aripuana mine. Compared to the Q2 of this year, zinc production was up 8% explained by higher volumes from the Cerro Lindo, Vazante and Morogudo mines. With respect to cash cost in the Q3 of this year, it decreased to $0.35 per pound compared to $0.57 per pound in the Q3 of last year, mainly explained by higher byproduct contribution related to higher lead prices and copper concentrate volumes. Compared to the Q2 of this year, mining cash cost decreased by 6%.

Speaker 2

Looking at the cost per run of mine in the quarter, it was flat year over year and quarter over quarter, despite inflationary cost pressures, especially in Brazil. Now moving to slide number 5. Regarding the operating performance of the smelting segment, metal sales totaled 154,000 tons in the 3rd quarter, down 5% from the Q3 of last year and up 3% compared to the Q2 of this year. The 9 months year over year production performance was relatively flat. Smelting cash costs in the Q3 of this year decreased to $1.01 per pound compared to $1.36 per pound in the Q3 of last year and $1.12 per pound in the Q2 of this year.

Speaker 2

In both periods, this decrease was mainly explained by lower zinc LME prices, which reduced the cost of raw materials. Our conversion cost was $0.29 per pound and was up 11% from the Q3 of last year due to higher energy expenses and lower metal production. Compared to the Q2 of this year, conversion cost was down 9%. Now moving to Slide number 6. Since January of this year, ramp up activities in Aripuana have continued with a strong focus on steadily increasing the plant's throughput rate, reducing plant downtime and improving recoveries and concentrate quality and grades.

Speaker 2

In the Q2 of this year, the plant performed at an average of 66% capacity versus 50% capacity in the Q1. In July, we observed some problems in the capacity of the flotation pumping system due to limitations identified in the original design and as a result, the plant performed at an average rate of 56% in the Q3. The permanent replacement of pumps is scheduled to take place in the Q1 of next year, driving ramp up completion to the Q2 of next year. We have also implemented additional actions in the plant that include processes and systems improvements as well as upgrades treatment facilities. That will allow us to return to a high average throughput rate in a more consistent way.

Speaker 2

We expect to run at 70% average utilization rate through the Q4 of this year. On the mine side, we have been successfully increasing our run of mine production. We reached 237,000 tons in the quarter compared to 61,000 tons in the Q2 of this year, up 2 90%. Patient activities in the quarter progressed as expected. We are focused on upgrading the mineral resource and expanding our mineral reserves.

Speaker 2

Our priority in this asset is to keep improving metal recovery and concentrate quality and grades and to conclude the upgrade in the plant aiming to achieve a stable production and minimize additional financial impacts. Now moving to Slide number 7. Starting with the planned downtime in the upper left side, we noted an increase of 5% quarter over quarter as the limitations observed in the 3rd quarter required additional preventive hours. The planned capacity utilization averaged 56% versus 66% in the 2nd quarter. However, we can see an improvement in copper and lead recoveries, while zinc recoveries slightly reduced compared to the previous quarter, but has been recovering in the last few weeks.

Speaker 2

Now moving to Slide 8. On the Slide number 8, you can see that zinc production was 10% lower compared to the Q2 of 2023, reaching 5,800 tons. Copper production reduced by 12%, while lead and silver production increased by 5% and 2 On this slide, I would like to highlight that we continue to advance the technical studies of the Pasco integration project. These technical studies cover different works such as new mine design and studies for the underground interconnection, shaft upgrade and engineering assessment of the plant as well as the assessment of options to improve capacity to provide a long term solution for tailings storage facilities. Furthermore, we continue to advance the required environmental permits and as studies progress, the project demonstrates the potential to unlock important value for Nexa through economies of scale, cost improvement and extension of asset life.

Speaker 2

We expect to submit this project for approval during the Q1 of next year. Now, I will turn over the call to Jose Carlos Del Valle, our CFO, who will present our financial results. Jose, please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning to everyone. I will continue on Slide 10. As you can see, beginning with the chart on your upper left, total consolidated net revenues for the 3rd quarter decreased by 8% year over year, mainly due to lower zinc LNG prices and lower smelting sales volumes. Compared to the Q2 of 2023, net revenues increased by 4% as a result of higher mining production and metal sales volumes, partially offset by lower zinc prices.

Speaker 3

In the 1st 9 months of the year, cost related net revenues reached $1,900,000,000 down by 14% compared to the same period a year ago. In terms of profitability, consolidated adjusted EBITDA in the Q3 of 2023 was $82,000,000 compared to $121,000,000 in the Q3 of 2022. This lower performance was mainly explained by lower zinc metal prices. Compared to the Q2 of 2023, adjusted EBITDA increased 13%, mainly due to higher mining and metal sales and lower costs in Brazil, which were partially offset by lower zinc prices and FX rate. In the 1st 9 months of this year, consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached $286,000,000,000 down 55% from the same period last year.

Speaker 3

Also explained by the reasons I mentioned in a moment. Now let's move to the next slide number 11. On the top left of the slide, we can see that in the 1st 9 months of 2023, we invested $198,000,000 in CapEx, which sustaining investments including mine development totaled $185,000,000 The total investment in the Q3 was 82,000,000 dollars With respect to mineral exploration and project evaluation, we have updated our guidance for the year and we now expect to be at $100,000,000 in 2023, which is a reduction of $10,000,000 from the previous guidance, mainly due to initiatives to improve our cash flow for the year. In the 1st 9 months of 2023, we invested a total of $69,000,000 of which $39,000,000 were related to mineral exploration and mine development to support our exploration activities. Now let's move on to the next slide in which I will discuss our cash flow generation in the Q3 of the year.

Speaker 3

For the Q3 of 2023 and starting from our $82,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA, net of non operational items, we paid almost $38,000,000 related to interest and taxes and spent $75,000,000 in sustaining CapEx and HSE in our operations, including Aripuana. Additionally, loans and investments and dividends received and paid had a positive net impact of $3,000,000 We then had a negative impact of also $3,000,000 due to the effects of foreign exchange on our cash and cash equivalents. This was driven by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U. S. Dollar during this period.

Speaker 3

Finally, there was a positive contribution of $93,000,000 from an improvement in working capital, which is part of the result of our ongoing program of cash optimization measures for 2023. Now combining all these effects, our free cash flow in the Q3 of 2023 was $14,000,000 Now moving to Slide 13. On this slide, you can see that our liquidity remains healthy and that we continue to present a solid balance sheet with an extended debt maturity profile. Cash balance increased and net debt declined in the Q3 of 2023 as a result of positive cash flow generation during the period. As a result, our lower liquidity at the end of the Q3 of 2023 was approximately 722,000,000 dollars including our undrawn revolving credit facility of $300,000,000 I would like to highlight that we recently announced a successful closing of a 5 year $320,000,000 sustainability linked revolving credit facility, which became effective on October 20, 2023.

Speaker 3

This new revolving credit facility replaces Nexa's 20 19 $300,000,000 RCF that was set to mature in October 2024. The amounts drawn are subject to an initial interest rate of 1.6% plus the term sulfur. The applicable margin is subject to compliance with carbon reduction KPIs, reflecting Nexa's unwavering commitment to reducing its carbon footprint. As you can see, these efforts are consistent with our ESG conviction and ambition. Regarding our debt, it currently has an average maturity of 3.9 years and a 5.6% average cost.

Speaker 3

It is important to mention that as of September 30, our total cash is sufficient to cover the payment of all obligations maturing in the next 4 years. Finally, despite the $14,000,000 increase in our cash balance, leverage, which is measured by the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, increased from 2.8 to 3.06x quarter over quarter, mainly because of lower adjusted EBITDA in the last 12 months, driven again by the prevailing trend of lower LME prices. Now moving to Slide 14. Regarding market fundamentals, it is worth noting that in the Q3 of 2023, LME's zinc price averaged $2,428 per tonne, down by 26% from the Q3 of 2022 and by 4% from the Q2 of 2023. At the same time, LME copper price averaged $8,356 per tonne, up by 8% from the Q3 of 20 22 and down by 1% from the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 3

The main reason for the decline in LME zinc prices were speculation related to the global economy, such as potential new hikes in interest rates in the U. S, slower economic growth, etcetera, but also the acknowledgment that the Chinese economy has not responded as expected to economic stimulus, particularly in the property sector. Looking ahead to the rest of 2023 and the following months, despite the fact that we're already seeing some zinc mining production cuts as a result of the current challenging price environment, metal prices are still expected to be negatively impacted by short term variables such as monetary policy in Europe and in the U. S. As well as by the still prevailing uncertainty about the Chinese economy.

Speaker 3

In the mid to long term, the fundamental outlook for both zinc and copper prices remains positive. Additionally, investment in construction, infrastructure and the automotive sector will continue to have a positive impact on demand expectations for base metals. On the supply side, both for copper and zinc, we anticipate that we will continue to see challenges to bring new significant production on time. Now I will hand over the presentation back Ignacio for his final remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jose Carlos. On our last slide, and I would like to close this presentation by mentioning our priorities for the rest of the year. The completion of the Aripuana ramp up is our top priority. The focus is to improve recoveries and quality of concentrates while replacing pumps and the flotation circuit to increase capacity. We are advancing on the studies related to the Cerro PASCO integration project.

Speaker 2

We look forward to approve this project in the Q1 of next year. We remain committed to looking for alternatives to optimize costs, CapEx and corporate expense in addition to strengthening our balance sheet. We will continue to accelerate our exploration program, prioritizing the life extension of our assets. We will continue to focus on safety, productivity and ESG public commitments. Looking forward, we are confident in the long term fundamentals of our industry and our business.

Speaker 2

Thank you all for attending this presentation. With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 1

Now we are going to address some questions that we got from the audience the online audience. We will start with a question from Alexandra Simeondini from William Blair and Company. What is the interest rate in this new sustainability linked RCF?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Rodrigo, Good morning to everyone. This is Jose Carlos del Valle. In relation to this question, just to clarify, the interest rate is sulfur, which is the secured overnight financing rate, plus 1.6% with a possibility of another net points depending on compliance with the ESG target that have been established for this sustainability linked facility.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jose. We have another question from the audience. It's from Alexandre Cimino Undine as well. In terms of leverage, it seems that the leverage has increased in this quarter. Is there a leverage target for the company?

Speaker 1

How does the company plan to address this?

Speaker 4

You for the question. This is something that we talk about continuously. And as you can imagine, leverage has increased mainly because of the reduced EBITDA because our net debt hasn't changed that much. Currently, we are right above 3x, and we are doing all our efforts to bring this below 3x towards the end of the year. However, in the medium to long term, definitely, we will feel more comfortable with levels around 2x.

Speaker 4

We don't have any leverage covenant in our facilities, But we believe that something around 2x will be more sustainable. So we continue to work on a number of initiatives to bring this down. Our top priority in the next months years is to reduce our net debt. Obviously, a good part of that will remain on will depend on prices, but we are doing all of the we're trying to influence all the factors that we can control to try to maximize cash flow generation and reduce net debt and consequently bring leverage to below the levels it currently is.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jose Carlos. We have another question from Camilla Bardo from Bradesco BBI. What can we expect in terms of free cash flow impact in Q4 and 1Q 'twenty four from Aripuana?

Speaker 5

Okay. This is Ignacio. So far, the impact on cash flow in Aripuana in the 1st 9 months of this year was $146,000,000 as we put it in the presentation. For the Q4, we expect a number of cash outflow of around €40,000,000 to €50,000,000 And depending on the ramp up, how it goes in the summer or in the Q1 of next year, we will assess the impact on cash flow. But the idea is that we start to be in breakeven towards the end of the 1st Q3 and beginning of the 4th quarter.

Speaker 5

We cannot put a number here because this is a process. So we will keep the market posted when we provide guidance in January for the rest of the mines.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Ignacio. We have a follow-up question from Camilla from Bradesco BBI. And could you provide some color on what you expect in terms of volumes for zinc and copper for 2024? Yes.

Speaker 5

This is going to come also in our guidance that is coming in January. I would like you please to wait until we provide that in 2 or 3 months.

Speaker 1

We have a question from Orlando Barriga from Credit Corp Capital. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is related to cost in Cajamarquilla. Why did cost increase quarter on quarter despite lower raw materials and conversion costs?

Speaker 1

Yes. Actually,

Speaker 5

the main driver of increasing the conversion costs or cost driving us in Gajamakija was energy.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Ignacio. We have a question from Alexandre Simeonvini from William Blair and Company. There was a big working capital outflow due to higher payables and the lower inventory in the quarter. Can you please give more color there? And shall we expect this to reverse in Q4?

Speaker 5

Q4? Jose Carlos again.

Speaker 4

Actually, if you go back and you review the results of the Q1, you will see that we had a very significant investment in working capital, which is actually what we've been reversing in the Q2 and the Q3. So if we compare ourselves with the beginning of the year, we're pretty much at the same level, marginally lower working capital. These variations actually are the result of a number of initiatives that we have taken to optimize working capital, have more control over our inventory as we should always do, but also to change in a way that the terms that we have with our suppliers, for example, all within industry standards, renegotiating slightly longer payment terms. So this is a structural change that actually will continue. This takes time to implement as contracts renew.

Speaker 4

And it's part also of the it's related to our cost control initiatives when we renegotiate contracts, consolidate contracts in order to get better terms. So I wouldn't worry about that. I don't expect that there will be a reversal in the Q4 because I think the key point here is that we are recovering the working capital that we lost in the Q1 of the year.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jose. I will go back to one question because it seems that we had an audio problem. And the question was from Orlando Barrigo from Credit Corp Capital. The question was related to Cajamarquilla costs. So why did cost increase quarter over quarter despite lower raw material and conversion costs?

Speaker 5

Yes. So the as I was explaining, and I'm sorry about the problem with the communication. As I was explaining, Cajamarquilla was exposed mainly to energy costs, inflation, and this is linked to our contract. We have a long term contract and this is linked to that. So this was the main variable that increment the conversion cost.

Speaker 5

Having said that, we started a program in September to work on reducing costs, to work on increasing production, to work on productivity measures, to have fewer people in the operation, and this is being very successful. Most of these benefits are going to be shown in our budget for next year and in the Q1 of next year as well. So

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks, Ignacio. And sorry again for the issue with the audio. We have a question from Carlos Asuncao from Bank of America. Could you give us some color about capital allocation going forward?

Speaker 1

Is Nexa considering inorganic growth in other geographies?

Speaker 5

Yes. This is a very important question. With these prices, it's worth mentioning that most of our mines still make money on our smelters. And we are with all the programs, optimization programs that we are running are also helping us with generate more cash. However, as you can see, we have a high debt and the priority in this capital allocation is to reduce the debt.

Speaker 5

We are putting together the budget for the coming months and for the coming year, and we have to assess if how much cash generation we're going to provide to start reducing the debt. As I was saying, this is the priority. And based on that, we might look for other options to change the capital allocation of the company. This is still early days, and we will provide more color to the market at the beginning of next year or mid next year. From the inorganic growth, I guess the best option, we have some good options in organic growth.

Speaker 5

This is something that we are assessing. As I was saying, today, the priority is to finish Aripuana to start have more clarity on the approval of the several Pasco projects and reducing the debt. So these are the 3 priorities that we have for the coming months and for 2024.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ignacio. We have one question related to Ade Poinar. It's from Alessandro Cimio Nguigni from William Blair and Company. What production should we expect from Aripuana next year? And what is the annual capacity?

Speaker 1

Hey, this is Leonardo speaking. So we expect to keep the ramping up over the next year. So by the Q2, we expect to start to reach full production. And when we reach the full production, the running ratio is about 2,200,000 tons a year. We still work on the plan, and we're going to provide more color when we issue the guidance in the next quarter.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Liao. Thank you, Liao. Can you explain sorry, that's hold on just a moment. There is one other question related to Aripuana from Orlando Barrigo from Credit Corp Capital. When would you expect Aripuana to reach breakeven?

Speaker 5

Yes. So as Leonardo or Coelho was mentioning, we expect full capacity towards the end of the Q1 of next year. And probably in those months, we will reach also a breakeven. Having said that, this is also the case because this the CapEx that we are investing in El Puna is related to changing the pumps and installation of these pumps and it's a higher CapEx. So this is affecting our breakeven costs.

Speaker 5

But as we said in the presentation, in the Q2 of next year, we will be we should be at breakeven.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ignacio. We have another question related to Alepo Nain. It comes from Henrique Braga from Morgan Stanley. Are there any other bottlenecks for Aripuana ramp up that the management can identify?

Speaker 5

Yes. This is a very good question. And as I can say as a summary that Aripuana has been very difficult to start the ramp up because there were some flaws in the original design that also affected construction. So we have many small border legs in some of the processes. And but today, I would say the main exposure that we have is in the flotation pumping system.

Speaker 5

So besides this, we don't see any other small bottlenecks. We might have some related to the ramp up, but this is the day to day. But the replacing of the pumps in the flotation system is the one that is going to take us to full production towards the end of the Q1 of next year. Okay. So these are all the questions that we have.

Speaker 5

We go back to the moderator, please.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. Now I will hand over to Ignacio for his final remarks. Mr. Rosado, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for attending. As you can see, this is still a difficult quarter for us. As we were saying, we are committed to our financial discipline. We're working in many work streams to reduce the cost, to try to bring the CapEx down and to make sure that Lipana is up and running in the coming months.

Speaker 5

So thank you very much again for the time, and we look forward to provide you more color in the next quarter at the end of the year. Have a good day. Thank you.

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