HF Sinclair Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation and Holly Energy Partners Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. Hosting the call today is Tim Go, Chief Executive Officer of HF Sinclair. He is joined by Atanemas Atanisov, Chief Financial Officer Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial Valerie Pompeo, EVP of Operations and Matt Joyce, SVP of Lubricants and Specialties along with John Harrison, Chief Financial Officer of Holly Energy Partners. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. On your Please note that this conference is being recorded.

Operator

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Craig Berry, Vice President, Investor Relations. Craig, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Christa. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation and Holly Energy Partners' 3rd quarter 2023 earnings call. This morning, we issued press releases announcing results for the quarter ending September 30, 2023. If you would like a copy of the earnings press releases, you may find them on our website at hfsenclair.comandhollyenergy.com. Before we proceed with remarks, please note the Safe Harbor disclosure statement in today's press releases.

Speaker 1

In summary, it says statements made regarding management expectations, judgments or predictions are forward looking statements. These statements are intended to be covered under the Safe Harbor provisions of federal security laws. There are many factors that could cause results to differ from expectations, including those noted in our SEC filings. The call also may include discussion of non GAAP measures. Please see the earnings press releases for reconciliations to GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

Also please note any time sensitive information provided on today's call may no longer be accurate at the time of any webcast replay or rereading of the transcript. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim Go.

Speaker 2

Good morning. I am pleased to report strong third quarter results, driven by solid execution of safe and reliable operations across our refining, lubricants, HEP and marketing segments. We continue to progress our strategic initiatives of integrating and optimizing our portfolio, along with delivering strong cash return to shareholders. Today, we reported Q3 2023 net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $791,000,000 or $4.23 per diluted share. These results reflect special items that collectively increased net income by $31,000,000 Excluding these items, adjusted net income for the 3rd quarter was $760,000,000 or $4.06 per diluted share compared to adjusted net income of $983,000,000 or $4.58 per diluted share for the same period in 2022.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA for the Q3 was $1,200,000,000 a 20% decrease compared to the Q3 of 2022. In our Refining segment, 3rd quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA contributed $1,000,000,000 compared to $1,400,000,000 in the same period last year. This decrease was primarily driven by lower refining margins in both the West and Mid Con regions and lower refined product sales volumes due to higher maintenance activity. Operating expenses were $496,000,000 in the Q3 of 2023 versus the $475,000,000 recorded in the same period last year as lower natural gas costs were offset by higher maintenance costs. Crude oil charge averaged 602,000 barrels per day in the Q3 of 2023 compared to 646,000 barrels per day in the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 2

The decrease was primarily due to higher maintenance activity during the period. I'm pleased to report that the turnaround in the Q3 at our Casper refinery was completed on time and on budget. And at Tulsa, we are in the process of ramping up normal operations after the successful turnaround at that refinery. With all of our major turnarounds behind us for the year, we remain focused on executing our strategy to improve reliability and operating costs across our refining portfolio. In our Renewables segment, we reported adjusted EBITDA of positive $5,000,000 for the Q3 of 2023 compared to negative $14,000,000 for the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Total sales volumes were 55,000,000 gallons for the Q3 of 2023 as compared to 52,000,000 gallons for the Q3 of 2022. We continue to make progress towards our target of achieving normalized run rates by the end of 2023 through improved reliability and feedstock optimization. Our Marketing segment reported EBITDA of $21,000,000 for the Q3 of 2023 compared to $10,000,000 in the Q3 of 2022. And total branded fuel sales volumes set another quarterly record of 398,000,000 Gross margin per gallon was $0.07 in the 3rd quarter, supported by strong demand in our regions. During the quarter, we added 15 new branded sites, and we expect to continue to grow our branded sites by 5% or more per year.

Speaker 2

Our Lubricants and Specialty Products segment reported EBITDA of $118,000,000 for the Q3 of 2023 compared to EBITDA of $15,000,000 for the Q3 of 2022. This increase was largely driven by a $30,000,000 FIFO benefit from consumption of lower priced feedstock inventory for the Q3 of 2023 compared to a $44,000,000 charge in the Q3 of 2022. Despite weakening base oil prices during the period, continued efforts to improve sales mix optimization across our finished products portfolio resulted in strong earnings contribution from our lubricants business. HEP reported EBITDA of $94,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023 compared to $66,000,000 in the same period of last year. This increase was mainly driven by tariff increases that went into effect on July 1, 2023.

Speaker 2

On August 15, 2023, we entered into a definitive merger agreement with HEP, and we expect the proposed transaction to close in the Q4 of this year, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions. During the Q3, we announced and paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share to stockholders totaling $84,000,000 and spent $586,000,000 on share repurchases. Year to date, as of September 30, our total cash return, including dividends and share repurchases, is over $1,090,000,000 and we have reduced our share count by 8%. In closing, Our Q3 results highlight the diversification of our portfolio and quality of our assets. Our strong cash return during the period demonstrates our continued commitment to our long term cash return strategy and long term payout ratio, while maintaining an investment grade rating.

Speaker 2

Looking forward, we remain focused on executing our strategy of safe and reliable operations as we continue to integrate and optimize our assets across portfolio. With that, let me turn the call over to Adam.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin by reviewing H. S. Sinclair's financial highlights. Net cash flows provided by operations for the Q3 of 2023 totaled $1,400,000,000 which included $124,000,000 of turnaround spend in the quarter.

Speaker 3

HF Sinclair's standalone capital expenditures totaled $75,000,000 for the Q3 of 2023. As of September 30, 2023, HF Sinclair's standalone liquidity stood at approximately $3,850,000,000 comprised of a cash balance of $2,200,000,000 along with our undrawn $1,650,000,000 unsecured credit facility. As of September 30, 23, we have $1,700,000,000 of standalone debt outstanding with a debt to cap ratio of 15%. In October 2023, we repaid at maturity the $308,000,000 aggregate principal amount of our 2.625 percent senior notes. HEP distributions received by HF Sinclair during The Q3 of 'twenty three totaled $21,000,000 HF Sinclair owns 59,600,000 HEP limited partner units, which represents 47 percent of HEP's outstanding LP units at a market value $1,250,000,000 as of last night's close.

Speaker 3

Now let's go through some guidance items. With respect to capital spending, Last quarter, we lowered our full year 2023 guidance range to $900,000,000 to 1.60 on a consolidated basis. With the majority of our plant maintenance activity behind us, we expect to end up at the lower end of our capital spend range for 2023. For the Q4 of 2023, we expect to run between 590,000 to 6 100 20,000 barrels per day of crude oil in our refining segment, which reflects plant maintenance at our Tulsa refinery during the period. Let me now turn the call over to John for an update on HEP.

Speaker 3

John?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Adnanis. ACP's Q3 2023 net income attributable to Holly Energy Partners was $63,000,000 compared to $42,000,000 in the Q3 of 2022. Each period reflected non recurring expenses that decreased net income by $4,000,000 $20,000,000 respectively. Excluding these items, the year over year increase was primarily attributable to higher revenues associated with tariff increases that went into effect on July 1, 2023, which were partially offset by higher interest expense and higher and A expenses during the Q3 of 2023. HEP's Q3 of 2023 adjusted EBITDA was $119,000,000 compared to $110,000,000 in the same period last year.

Speaker 4

The reconciliation table reflecting these adjustments can be found in HEP's press release. For the Q3, HEP generated distributable cash flow of $78,000,000 and we announced a distribution of $0.35 per LP unit, which is payable on November 10, 2023 to unitholders of record as of October 30, 2023. Capital expenditures during the Q3 were approximately $9,000,000 comprised of $6,000,000 in maintenance, dollars 2,000,000 of reimbursable $1,000,000 of expansion CapEx. During the Q3, we repaid $27,000,000 of debt and ended the quarter with available liquidity of approximately $630,000,000 We are now ready to turn the call over to the operator for any questions.

Operator

The floor is now open for questions. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, we welcome you to rejoin the queue. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Manav Gupta from UBS.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Tim. My question is more broader. In the past, you have mentioned that you have 7 refineries, But there's a hidden refinery within your system and you can run 50,000 to 60,000 barrels higher. And we have seen Monarch Air competitors do it where they shut 2 assets and the throughput higher. And please help us understand some of the progress that you are making in that direction so you can uncover this hidden refinery within your refining system.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Manav. This is Tim. As you stated, reliability and integration and commercial optimization are our main priorities right now, and that is to try to unlock that Hidden Refinery, as you mentioned. Let me ask Valerie to talk a little bit about some of the reliability efforts that we have going on.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Yes, what we're doing is Assessing the reliability of all of our assets, looking at capacity and then stepping back and looking at equipment, We're we have completed a full assessment of all of our sites and then within that starting to work execution plans by site. Those will unlock availability within each of our individual assets, which is a process that's been around in industry for a really long time. We're coupling that with some innovation and some new tools that will help us improve our availability.

Speaker 2

Manav, the other thing that I'll mention in addition to what Val just talked about was On previous calls, we've talked about the importance of executing our turnarounds well. And with this year's heavy turnaround load, I know there was a lot of concern about whether we could execute our turnarounds well. Val and her team have really done a fantastic job this year executing those turnarounds on schedule, on budget. And not only does that help in the actual execution of the turnaround, but it helps us get to all of the planned work that we wanted to get done during the turnarounds to help us get that reliability improvement for the full cycle That's coming post the turnaround. And so that's kind of another benefit that we're getting from good clean execution of the turnarounds as we hope that will allow to again demonstrate better reliability through this cycle.

Speaker 5

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is on the lubes, even adjusting For that inventory, it was a much stronger quarter. Your vision was to make this business more on the specialty side. Help us understand how those plans are progressing and also help us understand some of the reasons you had such a strong quarter in 3Q in the lubes business? Yes.

Speaker 2

Let me ask Matt to comment on the strength of our lubes business.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Manav. Matt Joyce here. And I think where the Team's done a really nice job is getting after operational excellence and a focus on regional growth. We've been working on mixing The mix of our business and really looking to see where and how we can focus on higher value products And better understand the markets we serve where we have stickier solutions that are enabling our customers to be successful And therefore, allowing us to be a bit more successful. And hats off to our Petro Canada team In the U.

Speaker 7

S, in particular, they've done a nice job of expanding their footprint and getting into the U. S. Markets, which was part of our strategy. And that's got gained a lot of nice traction, and we're seeing some real positive signs of growth there from a regional perspective. Yes, Madhav, I would just say, Matt and

Speaker 2

his team have done a really nice job of continuing to integrate The base oil business with the finished lubes and specialties business, you can we've talked about this on past earnings calls, But you just continue to see the intercompany sales of base oils to those finished lubes and specialties businesses continue to increase, which is giving us more resiliency, more cushion for these falling base oil cracks that you're seeing in our reported HFS Index. As those base oil cracks come down, the more integrated we are gives us more insulation and allows us to continue to generate the strong margins that you're seeing. So that's a structural improvement that Matt and his team are doing.

Speaker 5

Congrats on a great quarter and great to see renewable diesel generate positive EBITDA. Thank you, Sai.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Manav.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Maybe I'll follow-up on Manav's shot out there for the R and D business. Congrats on The underlying margin improvement there. Throughput and sales remain relatively low utilization rate. Can you walk through where you are in the process of increasing utilization up to normalized levels, whether hydrogen sourcing is still a limiting factor, How are you making progress on the process of extending time between catalyst turnarounds, improving product yield, etcetera?

Speaker 8

So maybe just A little more granularity on where you are in the process of getting that where you want it to be?

Speaker 2

Yes, Ryan. We're pleased to show the renewable diesel business profitable this quarter. We think we've turned the corner here. Let me ask Steve Ledbetter, our commercial lead to talk about it.

Speaker 9

Hey, Ryan. Thanks for the question. We're also encouraged as you are by a positive quarter. There's a few things that helped us deliver The first was really looking at our feedstock and optimizing the low CI acquisition and putting that into our sites, taking advantage of our free treatment unit. We had improved yield performance throughout the quarter and then to be honest, selling out into the markets during the highest part of the margin cycle of the quarter as well as taking some OpEx levers and pulling those.

Speaker 9

Those are all part of the path forward. We were somewhat limited by hydrogen availability, but we have just finished coming out of a cat change at Artesia, and we took the opportunity to go improve our hydrogen availability at our large SMR there at Artesia. Let me hand it To bow on hydrogen availability and operational improvements.

Speaker 6

Yes. As we stated before, we continue to invest in our hydrogen systems at all of our plants, particularly in Artesia. We've just completed the SMR. We made upgrades in our turnaround in the CCR and we're starting to see the benefits from those in our renewables business as well as refining.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. And maybe Just shifting gears on the refining side to the West Coast, really strong margins and strong capture and profitability there in the quarter. Can you talk about what you're seeing out there in terms of market dynamics? And as you look forward to the start up of TMX next year, How will that, if at all, impact your ability to source advantaged crudes at the Puget Sound Refinery?

Speaker 9

Yes. This is again Steve. I think we enjoyed the cracks in the margin environment in Q3 on the West Coast. We see some softness coming in particularly in gas, but it's normal and seasonal through this next quarter and the Q1. But overall, we think that there is going to be a link in diesel, particularly with RD coming into the We think there will be a bit of short structure on both gas and jet, and we look to take advantage of that.

Speaker 9

As far as TMX coming When that happens, we think it will compress some of the differentials, particularly when they call for line fill temporarily. But as that line gets up and running reliably, we believe that it will put more barrels out on the water and actually give us a bit of an advantage for our refinery in the Pacific Northwest.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Ryan, let me just follow-up and say, We believe our refining portfolio continues to be a strategic advantage and competitive advantage for us just in terms of the markets we serve and the demographics that we serve in our markets. The West Coast, in particular, I would say, is a beneficiary of this integration effort that we've been focused on here over the last 6 to 12 months. We have a with the Sinclair and the legacy HollyFrontier assets in the West with the addition of Puget Sound. We really believe that that is a underappreciated portfolio that we're continuing to unlock the potential of and you're going to continue to see good results come out of the West.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks, Tim.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Clay on for Doug. So thanks very much for taking the question. My first question is on the Sinclair synergies. $100,000,000 was expected at the time of the deal, but now that you've got a few quarters under your belt, I'm wondering how that opportunity set has evolved.

Speaker 2

Yes. Kalei, this is Tim. We were very pleased to be able to just capture that 100,000,000 Pretty quickly. In fact, it exceeded our timing expectations in terms of the ability for us to capture that. We see, as we've talked about on previous calls, much, much more opportunity to continue to improve and optimize that those assets.

Speaker 2

But we broadened it now to really look across the entire portfolio, to look at Puget Sound in the mix, to look at our legacy assets in the mix. That's really when I say our priorities are reliability across our portfolio and then integration and optimization across our portfolio, That's really code for we're looking for more synergies, we're looking for more optimization across the entire asset. We haven't gone out and Said anything specific like we did with the $100,000,000 of synergies, but know that we're working that hard. Steve and his group have already talked a little bit about that. And what we're hoping you guys will be able to see is the results of that come out and not just our throughput, but also our capture for all the for both the West and the Mid Con regions.

Speaker 11

Thanks, Tim. I guess we'll keep watching with interest. My next question is more housekeeping. So on the quarter itself, CapEx looked a touch low, wondering if there is anything to highlight there. And working capital seems to be a touch high, while some of your other peers are reporting some tailwinds.

Speaker 11

So just wondering if you could address those two things?

Speaker 3

Sure. This is Atmos. With respect to our capital spending, we're very pleased with How our CapEx program has gone and this is just a function of completing our turnarounds on time and On budget, there's always some contingency built into our budget plans and this is we're just demonstrating our capital Discipline that manifests in the positive variance. With respect to working capital, we saw some working capital tailwinds This quarter as we're coming out of these turnarounds and working out inventory, Rising prices also had a beneficial impact on our working capital. So with that in mind, you could see the tailwinds to our cash flow from operations.

Speaker 2

Yes. And as mentioned in his prepared remarks, Kalei, that we anticipate coming in on the low end of the CapEx range now. And so that is a result of again better execution and solid performance on our turnarounds.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, Paul. I'm trying to see that if you can help me to bridge the gap. I think the company is expecting that on the longer term basis that you will be able to improve Your reliability, so that a reasonable crew unit 1 on an annual basis may get to about 6.40 And at that time that you can see the unit cost go down to about 6 to 6.50.

Speaker 10

And if we look at in the Q3, your unit cost in the Mid Con is around 650 and west is about 970. And you're running at 576,000 barrels per day. Just by improving it to 6.40, That's better than I predicted. That by yourself doesn't seem that we get you down to your target unit cost. So what are the The initiative on the core side that we should expect in order for us to maybe bridge the gap to go down to that level?

Speaker 10

That's the first question.

Speaker 2

Paul, good question. We believe reliability has 2 benefits at least as we continue to prioritize that. Not only does it get the denominator down, as you just kind of mentioned the math of Higher throughput will get your OpEx per barrel down, but it also reduces your maintenance costs, which will be in the numerator, which will also get your OpEx down. Yes, there's a lot of good effort going on in that area of reducing OpEx and improving reliability. And Val, do you have any color you want to provide on that?

Speaker 6

Yes. As we said earlier, we are very focused on each asset, putting forward reliability improvement plans. We're focused both on competitive spend, right dollars to buy down operating risk to improve Reliability and making sure our money is going in the right places and improving reliability, which will ultimately get our utilization up. We are more challenged in the West and those facilities are primary focus for our efforts, So in particular, Sinclair assets, along with Woods Cross and PSR are all working, improved Structure on cost. But again, our biggest opportunity is reliable assets, produce more barrels.

Speaker 6

They're safer and we get a better outcome in performance and execution.

Speaker 10

While we do that, do you guys have a number that you can share with that the West unit cost on the longer term basis that you are targeting at?

Speaker 2

Tom, we're not ready to give out any Specific numbers or guidance in that area. But we do believe there's plenty of opportunities in the West that we're going after.

Speaker 10

Okay. Second question is that, as you about to close HEP and roll it back up, Once that you have done that, is it just business as usual and then you simplify your corporate structure or that's going to see Real actual operating benefit, just want to see that whether we should expect some improvement or that is just, by reducing the public structure capacity? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Paul, this is Atmos. Thank you for your question. Your observation is correct. We're seeing opportunities for simplification and optimizing our portfolio. To give you just an example, what used to be at times Complicated negotiation on contracts, intercompany contracts now is going to be a more simplified process, which would really help is to focus on efficiencies and commercial opportunities.

Speaker 3

So the simplification part That benefit is going to be meaningful to us. And with respect to the corporate structure, you will get your run of the mill savings, essentially running 1 public company as opposed to having 2 public companies. And on top of that, we also see some synergies with respect to the debt As the gold gets rolled up at the Dyno level. So all good outcomes for us.

Speaker 10

Anastasia, is there a number you can share in terms of the operating synergies? Excluding, I mean, the debt we can understand, but also like the financial Lowering interest, I mean, the real operating benefit. Is there a number you can share?

Speaker 3

We will be in better position to shed more light on that after the close of the transaction.

Speaker 10

All right. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair from TPH. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Do you have any early thoughts On refining capture in the Q4, I think Q3 was around 60%. It seems like the Q4 would include some pretty considerable tailwinds from things like Wider WCS discounts, butane blending, lower RINs and then it looks like lower refinery maintenance.

Speaker 9

Yes, Matt, this is Steve. And I always appreciate the questions that always have the thesis included In terms of the answer, and that was one of those. So we do see also a cleaner quarter ahead in Q4. We do think that the DISS, WCS, in particular, TI Def will blow out and has already in the forward strip. And we have minimal planned maintenance.

Speaker 9

We're finishing up the Tulsa turnaround. So supportive structure and margin in terms of distillate diesel and jet, We'll be moving gas around and we're in max diesel and jet mode for Q4. So we think we have some opportunities to have a cleaner Quarter ahead, but we're not giving explicit guidance on what that number is, but we do see a good path ahead.

Speaker 2

We've got some good tailwinds, as you mentioned, Matt. But seasonally, the 4th quarter always tends to be a little lower on Capture II just Because margins compress. So that will be the offset to some of the tailwinds that we're seeing.

Speaker 4

Sounds good. And then I'm not sure if this has been addressed yet, but any thoughts on

Speaker 12

the potential for large scale refinery M and A From H. S. Sinclair here.

Speaker 2

No, that question hasn't been asked yet, Matt. What I would tell you is, We're focused first on closing HEP. It's been a transaction that we've started earlier in the year and that We're laser focused on completing. As Atmos mentioned earlier, we believe that we will be able to close here before the end of the year. Our priorities are internally focused.

Speaker 2

We've talked about that before. We're really looking to improve our internal reliability as well as our integration and optimization across our assets. So that's really where our main focus is. We don't think that the time right now is right to be looking at large M and A as you kind of described it, both from a market standpoint. We like to look countercyclically.

Speaker 2

Right now, I think we're finding valuations pretty high. But more importantly, From an internal perspective, we're really focused internally more than externally. Now I know there's some assets on the table that are starting to be marketed. We'll take a look just like everyone else is, but it's not a priority for us right now, Matt.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Roger Read from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of things to catch up on. 1, your comments about refining reliability getting that up. I'm just curious if you were to say over the last 12 to 24 months what your available uptime has been and then maybe what the target is for available uptime ex turnarounds and all that as we think about a marker for where you've been and a marker for where you're trying to go?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, Roger. We don't provide a lot of the internal measures that we use. We have a lot of internal measures that we're tracking both at the refinery level as well as at the regional levels. But we don't disclose that.

Speaker 2

We are making progress. We're feeling good about the progress that we're making. Val has talked about that. We are seeing progress. I think one of the biggest ways that we're seeing progress is in just the improved safety and environmental performance of our assets, which we always believe is a leading indicator of how our reliability is doing as well and the rest of our business is And I can tell you we're on pace to set another record safety year, both on a process safety standpoint and a personnel safety standpoint.

Speaker 2

So We feel good about the internal indicators. We're just not prepared to share any of those, Roger.

Speaker 13

Okay. Well, if not absolute numbers, I mean, Maybe a basis point improvement. I mean, we're looking at 200, 300, 500 something along those lines, if I can dig a little deeper.

Speaker 3

Yes. Roger, this is Atmos. I would just encourage you to stay tuned and you will see Graduated process progress along those lines and we're focused on improving reliability.

Speaker 13

Okay. Switching gears slightly back to the renewable diesel business. So you went through with one of the earlier questions All the things that help. But I was just curious if you thought year over year or quarter to quarter, Maybe how that broke down, market factors relative to things you were able to do about changing the mix, Keeping control of costs, stuff like that. So just what might have helped out on the lubes front?

Speaker 3

On the renew the question is on renewables, yes. Roger, this is Atmos. One of the first things that comes to mind is early on as we were getting this business up and running was working off high priced feedstock in a backwardated market. So the team has done a lot of good progress with respect to managing inventory and ensuring that we're focusing on using low sea feedstock. So that's number 1.

Speaker 3

Number 2 would be improvements around catalyst performance and optimization. Number 3, as a result of our turnarounds And the technical focus on the team is improving hydrogen availability. And So those are the kind of the three things that come to mind. And I could ask Steve or Val to add additional color.

Speaker 9

No, I think you're right. I mean, we're peeling this apart to make sure that we can make it the most profitable business it can be in our current configuration. We like to remind people that 2 of our facilities are co located. And so hydrogen availability is a keen focus. But beyond that, we've started to pull levers, As Atnus mentioned, in terms of advantaged low CI feedstock, as part of that driving pathways are very important to get that full value with that hyper We're focused on that, catalyst optimization, OpEx levers in terms of waste, and then really getting our molecules integrated across our value chain is another aspect that we see a lot of value coming forward.

Speaker 9

So we've demonstrated that in Q3, we can be profitable with not hitting our normalized run rate. We still see the path to getting there by the end of the year. And all of those focus areas we believe and Expect to have a profitable renewables business next year.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Roger, I would just draw an analogy to the lubes business. We spent a lot of resources and a lot of effort to turned that business around. I think over the last two and a half years, we've been at well above mid cycle performance for our lubes business. That same type of effort, that same type of focus is what we've got pouring into our renewable diesel business right now.

Speaker 2

And we believe that we will be successful in getting that business turned around and performing the way we want, just like we have our lubes business performing the way we want right now.

Speaker 13

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to first hit on the cap, the financial framework As you get close to the closing of the AGP transaction, it looks like on a consolidated basis, You're holding about $1,000,000,000 of net debt. Is that the right number for the company to hold on a consolidated basis? And then how do you think about buybacks as you're able to get back into the market following the HEP deal close?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you for your question. This is Atmos. The way we think with respect to our capital structure and debt in particular is in terms of net leverage. And the net leverage target that we have publicly stated has been one time And net leverage, as you can see, we're far below that right now and we're very pleased.

Speaker 3

Given where capital structure is today, our 1st and foremost priority is shareholder return, both in terms of buybacks and dividends. And we'll continue with that mindset. With respect to anything around the debt, I think we're very much we're very pleased with where our debt is And shareholder return is our priority.

Speaker 14

Got it. Great. And then my other question is just Looking at the indicators that you posted for October, it seems like the premiums in the West relative to Mid Con have come in after a pretty good run of pricing premiums. How much of that is seasonally driven? And is there any structural components as maybe, there were a couple of assets, I guess, in the Rockies, in particular, offline For the better part of the past couple of years and now they're back.

Speaker 14

If you could answer that, that'd be great. And just one more clarification. I don't actually think you provided the working capital number in terms of cash inflow. If you could provide that, that'd be great. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, let's start with the last part, this is the pressure. This is Atnus. In terms of working capital, we saw a tailwind to the tune of 500,000,000 For the Q3.

Speaker 9

Yes. And then just to answer the structure margin environment on the West Coast, we don't see anything Necessarily structurally other than a good portion of diesel, particularly R and D coming to those markets. And therefore, we think there'll be Of diesel and to be honest an opportunity in gas as well as jet. But we don't think there's anything materially structural. We that what you're seeing right now is seasonal normal patterns.

Speaker 2

Yes. I would just jump in, Jason. We typically see seasonal weakness as the tourism and the driving season kind of comes to a close. We're not seeing anything unusual at this point. What we are seeing is pretty strong jet premiums right now.

Speaker 2

And I would tell you for the Q3, We had record jet production and record jet sales that helped boost capture in both the Mid Con and in the West regions, And we're seeing that continue here in the Q4. So we'll continue to look for those types of opportunities to continue to just optimize our portfolio.

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Lache from Morgan Stanley. Please Go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, Tim. Good morning

Speaker 15

and thanks for taking my questions. So I just had a follow-up on RD. I was just hoping to get your outlook for R and D margins here. Just given the industry capacity coming online next year, we've seen RINs fall, we've also seen some of the feedstock cost decline as well as an offset. So just hoping to get your thoughts on the credit side as well as the feedstock side here, please?

Speaker 9

Yes. I think you hit it right. With the RVO release and the view of additional capacity coming on, There's been weakness in both RIN value and LCFS. We think that, that will adjust Sometime, there's been some announcements of some of the larger production coming on, some delays there. And so you've seen some of that changed the overall margin and pricing structure, but we think that's temporary.

Speaker 9

That has created a bit of reduction in terms of the feedstock pricing near term and we'll take advantage of that, but we think that will normal out. And ultimately, we think that the RVO will adjust. We don't know when, but we do think that when it does adjust, it will create additional support in terms of the RIN value. And we continue to try to Find other markets to take our products to and we think that there are opportunities not only in terms of the markets that have LCFS, We're also finding some opportunities where we can match proximity to our barrels and put them into those things Into those channels profitable. So longer term outlook, we're pretty comfortable with what we're doing and unlocking and untapping The complete value chain in

Speaker 2

our RD business. And you saw, Joe, that RD margins tightened here in the Q3 and yet our gross margin and net margins actually increased. And that's a testament to what the team is doing to try to improve our just our base business.

Speaker 15

Great. Thank you. I appreciate it. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator

We have no further questions in the queue at this time. I will turn the call back over to Tim for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Christa. Let me recap by saying that in the 3rd quarter, we executed our turnarounds on time and on budget. We delivered above mid cycle profits in our refining segment, lubricants and specialty segment and Marketing segment, and we returned $669,000,000 to our shareholders for a total of $1,200,000,000 of shareholder returns so far this year. These strong results are a testament to the competitive advantages of our business portfolio and the hard work of our employees to execute our strategies and deliver on these results. Our priorities remain the same, to improve our reliability, number 1 to integrate and optimize our new portfolio of assets, number 2 and to return excess cash to our shareholders, number 3.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining our call. Have a great day and go Rangers.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

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Key Takeaways

  • $791 million net income in Q3 2023, or $4.23 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year decrease amid lower refining margins.
  • Refining segment EBITDA fell to $1.0 billion from $1.4 billion a year ago due to weaker margins and higher maintenance, though the Casper and Tulsa turnarounds were completed on time and on budget.
  • Renewables turned profitable with $5 million of adjusted EBITDA versus a $14 million loss in Q3 2022, and Lubricants & Specialties delivered $118 million of EBITDA compared to $15 million last year thanks to sales-mix optimization and inventory benefits.
  • $669 million of Q3 cash returned to shareholders via dividends and repurchases (over $1.09 billion YTD), reducing share count by 8%, supported by $1.4 billion of operating cash flow and a liquidity position of $3.85 billion.
  • Definitive merger agreement with Holly Energy Partners expected to close in Q4 2023, aiming to simplify the corporate structure, capture synergies, and integrate logistics assets.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
HF Sinclair Q3 2023
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