UBS Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the UBS Third Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackie, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors filed with our group results today together with additional disclosures in our SEC filings. On Slide 2, You can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Sergio Amotti, Group CEO.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. During the Q3 and as we speak, We continue to see an evolution of the macroeconomic outlook with opinions, forecast and market changing at very rapid pace. In addition, we witnessed an even further deterioration of the geopolitical landscape as a result of tragic events in the Middle East. Our thoughts are with those who are suffering and have been impacted by this violence as well as our affected employees. While we have been very busy executing on our integration plans, our top priority is always to stay close to clients, helping them protect their assets and position their portfolios and businesses for future opportunities.

Speaker 2

Our Wealth Management clients remain cautious and defensively positioned. And while some of our clients are taking advantage of short term opportunities, many still remain on the sidelines. Our consistent dedication continues to be rewarded by their confidence and trust in UBS. This was demonstrated by another quarter of strong flows across GWM and P and C. In the Q3, the 1st full quarter since the acquisition, We made strong progress and delivered underlying profitability.

Speaker 2

With respect to the integration of Credit Suisse, we In terms of the lessons learned from the events in March, we welcome the recent reports issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the Financial Stability Board and the Swiss Expert Group on Banking Stability. Their findings confirmed our view that the crisis was not a result of insufficient capital or liquidity requirements. Rather, The reports emphasize sustainable business models, risk adjusted profitability and importantly, the critical role of robust risk management cultures and effective governance. We take comfort in these conclusions as they have been and remain Core Principles of UBS. Today, we are positioning UBS to be an even stronger and SAFER Global Financial Institution.

Speaker 2

It is for this reason that we remain confident the acquisition will allow us to deliver Significant value for all our stakeholders, notwithstanding potential macroeconomic or geopolitical challenges. Briefly summarizing our results this quarter. Our strong underlying performance was driven by Positive operating leverage at the group level. GWM, P&C and Asset Management all delivered underlying PBT growth. IB performance was impacted by market conditions that were unfavorable to our business model and investments we expect to be accretive in future quarters.

Speaker 2

Our capital position remains strong with a CET1 ratio of 14.4% and total lost absorbing capacity of nearly EUR 200,000,000,000. We achieved these results while incurring €2,000,000,000 in integration related expenses and making good progress running down non core assets. Despite our reported loss in the quarter, we incurred over $500,000,000 in tax expense and paid over $200,000,000 in cash taxes in Switzerland. Our confidence in the ability to successfully integrate Credit Suisse and create substantial long term value is supported by the strong progress we made in the Q3. We have now stabilized Credit Suisse and continue to grow our franchise through new client acquisition and share of wallet gains.

Speaker 2

In addition, our client retention and win back strategy is working. Net new money in GWM was $22,000,000,000 and our strong deposit momentum continued through the quarter. The $33,000,000,000 in net new deposits across GWM and P and C also supported our ability to reduce quarterly funding costs by $450,000,000 through the repayments of the public liquidity backstop and the Ayla plus that we announced in August. We are pleased to see strong demand for UBS debt in the wholesale market with transactions priced at similar levels to where UBS Paper stood before the rescue of Credit Suisse. We have finalized the perimeter of non core and legacy and our efforts to actively unwind positions resulted in a capital release of around $1,000,000,000 Lastly, we continue to execute our plans to reduce costs in non core and legacy, restructured Credit Suisse's Investment Bank and removed up duplications across our operations.

Speaker 2

We have already delivered around $3,000,000,000 in annualized exit rate gross cost savings. We expect to make further progress in the 4th quarter. Slide 6 summarizes well how quickly we have stabilized Credit Suisse and the confidence of clients in UBS. Credit Suisse Wealth Management's quarterly net new money has now turned positive for the first time in a year and a half with EUR 3,000,000,000 in the Q3. UBS Wealth Management, dollars 18,000,000,000 in net new money is the 2nd highest third quarter results in over a decade.

Speaker 2

In addition, it was satisfying to see that our efforts to win back client's assets resulted in Following our decisions to integrate Credit Suisse Weitz, we reached out to our clients to reassure them that we remain committed to delivering the best capabilities of both institutions. In addition, we reiterated that their credit limits across both banks will remain in place. To date, client retentions have been broadly constructive and reaction, sorry. Client reaction has been broadly constructive and net new deposits in P and C were positive in both Personal and Corporate Banking Client segments. We are particularly pleased that this was also the case in September, the month following our decision to integrate both franchises.

Speaker 2

In non core and legacy, we also made a strong progress this quarter. 80% of the sequential reduction in NCL's credit and Risk weighted assets was driven by actively running down positions executed above marks. Non operational risk weighted assets has now been reduced by nearly 1 third since Q1 2023 and we expected and the expected natural runoff profile has improved by 3,000,000,000 While we have some credit risk exposure in certain local emerging markets and other more complicated bilateral positions that resulted in CLEs this quarter, the key risks across the portfolio are well understood, actively managed and in most cases well hedged. The majority of our credit risk exposure is with high quality borrowers. Over 75% of the exposure is rated investment grade.

Speaker 2

This provide us with the comfort to continue to pursue our strategy to accelerate the disposal of these assets in a way that optimizes value for our shareholders, while also protecting our clients and counterparties. The finalized perimeter of non core and legacy contains €30,000,000,000 in operational risk weighted assets. As a function of the natural decay across the portfolio, we expect a reduction of around 50% by the end of 2026. Todd will take you through this in more detail. Returning to the integration, let me reiterate that the complexity is not just from managing 2 GCFIs Banks.

Speaker 2

Our immediate priorities since the transaction was announced and closed had to be on stabilizing and restructuring Credit Suisse. This will continue to be the case until the early part of 2024. At the same time, we are executing on our integration plans at pace. And on the left side of Slide 8, you can see a selection of our recent achievements. Notably, we have established management responsibilities and operating models across business divisions and legal entities, including our in our Swiss franchise.

Speaker 2

You can also see some of our key priorities through the end of this year and beyond. This includes the merger of our significant legal entities, client migrations across All of our business divisions and executing on our technology decommissioning plans. Last but not least, we are also working towards finalizing our 3 year strategic plan, which we will present in early February. As we continue to progress our plan, the main focus has been on delivering synergies for the combined group. We remain confident that the 2020 Six goals that we presented last quarter are achievable.

Speaker 2

But as I say then, it will not be a straight line journey. We are pleased that the first phase of gross cost savings has already been executed in 2023. But I'm sure we all appreciate the significant cost associated with running and combining to G SIFIs, one of which is still structurally unprofitable. From an operational standpoint of view, It is clear that 2024 will be a pivotal year. Completing the merger of our Significant legal entities before the end of next year is a critical step to enable us to unlock the next phase of our cost, Capital and funding synergies, which we expect to realize in 20252026.

Speaker 2

Our enhanced scale, leading client franchises and increased Future earnings power will position us for growth. Disciplined execution will continue to be an important driver for our performance and we are on track to deliver on our plans. We are optimistic about our future as we build an even stronger and safer version of the UBS that was called upon to stabilize the financial system in March and one that all of our key stakeholders can be proud of. With that, I hand over to Todd.

Speaker 3

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As Sergio highlighted, we are executing on our plans at pace. In our 1st full quarter since the Credit Suisse acquisition, we've delivered underlying profitability and maintained strong client momentum with impressive net new money inflows in Global Wealth Management and net new deposit growth in our Swiss franchise. We also made Before I move on to discussing details of our financial performance, let me describe the reporting changes we implemented this quarter and the ones we expect to introduce soon. Today, for the first time, we're presenting the results of our performance segments on a combined basis, reflecting the way we're managing our businesses and engaging with clients.

Speaker 3

In addition to Global Wealth Management, Personal and Corporate Banking, Asset Management and the Investment Bank, we are now separately reporting non core and legacy as well as group items, all of which reflect the combined performance of UBS and Credit Suisse under IFRS and in U. S. Dollars. As I said during the Q2 earnings call, our aim is to be clear and forthcoming and explaining the financial reporting of this complex transaction. Therefore, we've introduced underlying performance metrics that primarily strip out the PPA related pull to par effects from revenues in our core businesses and adjust for integration related expenses across all performance segments.

Speaker 3

Regarding the pull to par effects in NCL, In the quarter, we reclassified most of the positions that Credit Suisse's Investment Bank and Capital Release Unit historically accounted for on an accrual basis to fair value through P and L as those positions in NCL are now held for sale. As a reminder, those positions gave rise to the $3,100,000,000 in future NCL pull to par revenues that we flagged last quarter. Given that NCL generates revenues in various ways, whether from early unwinds of positions and other disposals, mark to market on its fair value book or from pull to par effects, we don't distinguish among the various accounting classification types. Accordingly, in the quarter and going forward, all sources of NCL income, gain or loss will be treated as part of its underlying performance. As last quarter's disclosed IFRS results reflect only 1 month of Credit Suisse's operating performance, To improve comparability, we've prepared estimated underlying results that reflect all 3 months of the Q2.

Speaker 3

As I go through my remarks, unless otherwise stated, I will compare our underlying Q3 results sequentially to this estimated performance in the prior quarter. We'll focus on sequential developments until the Q3 of 2024 when we'll resume year over year commentary. Now on to our plan changes. In the Q4, we will expand our Global Wealth Management and enhanced comparability with U. S.

Speaker 3

Peers. We will report net new money plus dividends and interest as well as disclose net new fee generating assets for the combined franchise. We intend to introduce a growth target for net new money plus dividends and interest when we present our integration KPIs and targets as part of our Q4 results early next year. Additionally, starting from the Q1 of 2024, we expect to push out to our business divisions Substantially all balance sheet and P and L items that were previously retained centrally in group items. The only exceptions will be for group items that are not directly attributable to divisional activities, including deferred tax assets, cash flow hedges, own credit and their associated P and L effects.

Speaker 3

Our business division equity attribution framework will also reflect these changes, whereby the average levels of equity across the business divisions will more closely align to our current proved capital targets. Moving on to our financial performance on Slide 12. The quarterly profit before tax was 844,000,000 A $1,400,000,000 increase from the 2nd quarter as we delivered strong positive operating leverage with $600,000,000 higher revenues and $500,000,000 lower operating expenses. Additional, CLE declined by $400,000,000 sequentially to $300,000,000 which mainly related to Credit Suisse loans within P&C and NCL, which I cover later in more detail. By comparison, CLE in the Q2 of $700,000,000 included more than $500,000,000 of charges, primarily related to the take on recognition of BCL allowances on Credit Suisse's lending portfolios.

Speaker 3

On a reported basis, the 3rd quarter net loss was $785,000,000 as $526,000,000 in tax expense arising Profitable entities could not be offset by tax benefits from losses primarily generated by certain Credit Suisse subsidiaries. We expect our effective tax rate to remain elevated until we merge and restructure our most significant legal entities. After that time, the effective tax rate should gradually return to a level below 25% absent the effects of any remeasurement of deferred tax assets. Moving to Slide 13. Revenues increased by 6% this quarter to $10,700,000,000 driven by lower funding costs within group items and gains in non core and legacy as the team accelerated the unwind of certain positions at attractive prices relative to book values.

Speaker 3

Revenues in group items increased sequentially, primarily due to the reduction of around $450,000,000 and centrally held funding costs from the Credit Suisse related liquidity measures that were repaid and returned in the middle of the third quarter. For the Q4, we expect an additional $100,000,000 benefit from these actions. It is worth noting that the cost of replacement funding is being absorbed by the core businesses and is reflected in their sequential NII performance and guidance this quarter. Total revenues reached $11,700,000,000 including $958,000,000 that we've stripped out of underlying revenues. This amount consisted of $764,000,000 in pull to par effects as well as $194,000,000 of NII in our core businesses, benefiting from the merger date elimination of the unrealized loss balance associated with Credit Suisse's cash flow hedge program.

Speaker 3

On Slide 14, we show the details of Poltepar and similar effects that we expect to recognize in future quarters. The pull to par starting balance as the transaction closed was $9,300,000,000 excluding the $3,100,000,000 and NCL that I described earlier. Considering the pull to par accretion of $1,100,000,000 recognized since the merger date, Including $800,000,000 this quarter, the remaining balance that will accrete into income over future quarters is expected to be around $8,200,000,000 We expect the majority of this balance to accrete into income by the end of 2026, barring the impact of any early unwinds, with $500,000,000 expected next quarter. We also expect to recognize around $900,000,000 of additional NII in GWM and P and C relating to the eliminated cash flow hedge item I mentioned a few moments ago with $150,000,000 expected in 4Q. As a reminder, these effects are stripped out of our underlying revenues with about half being CET1 capital accretive.

Speaker 3

I would also point out that we continue to expect total Poltopar revenues, including the reclassified NCL and post 2026 recognized portions to broadly offset the cost to achieve the greater than $10,000,000,000 in gross savings we described last quarter. Having said this, like in the Q3, we expect there will be timing mismatches in the recognition of these reported revenues and expenses, resulting in headwinds to our reported results, particularly in the Q4 and throughout 2024. Moving to Slide 15. Operating expenses for the group decreased to $9,600,000,000 down 5% as our cost savings initiatives take effect, partially offset by reinvestments to help grow our core businesses. Progress on our restructuring actions led to $2,000,000,000 in integration related expenses.

Speaker 3

Roughly half of these expenses was related to personnel costs, including severance payments, salaries of employees fully dedicated to integration matters and the cost of retaining key personnel. The other half was related to non personnel matters, including real estate impairments and depreciation, onerous contract charges and consulting and legal fees. For the Q4, we expect integration related expenses in excess of $1,000,000,000 although certain additional costs to achieve may arise if we see opportunities to accelerate savings. While we manage our integration to achieve overall cost reductions without specific headcount targets, I would note that our combined workforce fell by over 4,000 in the quarter, bringing year to date reductions to 13,000 were down 9% versus the workforce of both banks as of the end of 2022. Across our cost savings initiatives, We've achieved around $3,000,000,000 to date in gross run rate cost saves with further progress expected in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 16. In the quarter, we maintained a strong capital position with around $200,000,000,000 of TLAC and a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4 percent mainly as we reduced RWA from the active rundown in our NCL portfolio, which offset reductions in our CET1 capital in the quarter. Our CET1 leverage ratio increased to 4.9% at the end of the quarter. As we previously guided, we expect to maintain a CET1 capital ratio of around 14% throughout the integration timeline, even if our reported performance over the coming quarters remains affected by the cost of winding down the NCL unit and the work needed to achieve cost synergies in our core businesses. During the quarter, we issued US4.5 billion dollars TLAC attracting very strong demand and pricing at pre acquisition spreads in a clear sign of fixed income investor confidence in our name.

Speaker 3

To further diversify our sources of funding, we successfully placed $3,000,000,000 in SEC registered OpCo and just after the quarter CHF820 1,000,000 in UBS's inaugural Swiss covered bond issue, both attractively priced. Regarding liquidity, we maintain a prudent profile in the quarter with an LCR of nearly 200% supported by $33,000,000,000 in total deposit inflows. I would note that these strong deposit inflows across Global Wealth Management and Personal and Corporate Banking increased our overall deposit coverage ratio. Going forward, we expect to continue to operate with a prudent LCR to comply with the revisions to the Swiss liquidity ordinance that will come into effect on January 1, 2024. Regarding the Swiss National Bank's recently announced changes to its minimum reserve requirements and site deposit remuneration policies that take effect next month, we expect an annualized reduction of around CHF 80,000,000 to our NII, of which 2 thirds will impact P and C and 1 third GWM.

Speaker 3

Turning to the performance in our businesses, beginning on Slide 17. In Global Wealth Management, we continued strong momentum with $22,000,000,000 in net new money inflows across all regions. We saw particularly strong inflows in both APAC and EMEA with $13,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 in net new money respectively. Importantly, our Credit Suisse Wealth Management business attracted quarterly net inflows for the first time since the beginning of 2022. In the quarter, we also attracted $25,000,000,000 of net new deposits, including $17,000,000,000 from the Credit Suisse Wealthside.

Speaker 3

These impressive flows are a true testament to the trust our clients continue to place in us. They also reflect the success of our clear and decisive win back, retention and client acquisition actions, as well as intensified client engagement levels since the deal's completion. We expect to further build on this momentum as the value proposition of the combined firm becomes more tangible to our clients. For instance, all of our clients now have access the UBS house view from our CIO and our wealth management product and solution offerings are being unified and aligned across the platforms. As mentioned, from next quarter, we will report net new money plus dividends and interest as well as net new fee generating assets for the combined franchise.

Speaker 3

In the Q3 inflows based on this new definition were $39,000,000,000 and net new fee generating assets in solely the UBS portion of our wealth business were $21,000,000,000 with positive flows across all regions. Moving on to GWM's P and L. Profit before tax was $1,100,000,000 over 40% higher sequentially, driven by a reduction in costs and credit loss expenses with roughly flat revenues. Excluding the impact of CLE, which included a significant acquisition related ECL charge last quarter, underlying profit before tax increased by around 20%, supported by lower underlying operating expenses. This quarter, GWM revenues of $5,500,000,000 were broadly flat as increases in recurring fees were offset by a decline in NII.

Speaker 3

Combined net interest income was down 3% on an underlying basis and excluding FX, reflecting continued deposit mix effects due to rotation into higher yielding deposits and ongoing deleveraging. This was partially offset by sequentially higher deposit balances that served to close the funding gap in the business and strengthen the structural profile of our balance sheet. For the Q4, we expect a mid single digit percentage decline in NII, mainly from continuing deposit mix shifts. Credit loss expenses in the quarter across GWM were 2,000,000 Operating expenses declined $200,000,000 to $4,400,000,000 mainly driven by lower personnel expenses as reduced headcount levels, which we expect to continue sequentially began to benefit our underlying earnings. Although it's early days in terms of synergy realization in GWM, we are already seeing progress from our integration efforts.

Speaker 3

The division's underlying cost income ratio in the 3rd quarter dropped by around 3 percentage points to 80%. Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on Slide 18. Profit before tax increased by CHF 700,000,000 to CHF773 1,000,000 mainly driven by a decrease in credit loss expenses. Excluding CLE, P and C's PBT was up slightly quarter on quarter. Revenues increased to 2,200,000,000 With the announcement of the Swiss integration at the end of August, the business is highly focused on client engagement and deposit win back.

Speaker 3

Early indications are encouraging as evidenced by the stability of the revenue line, the resilience of business volume and the commencement of deposit returns. Net interest income decreased by 4% despite the narrowing funding gap from net new deposit inflows, which mainly came from our corporate clients. A primary driver of the sequential decline this quarter was the additional cost of restoring the structural funding profile of the combined business to UBS's NSFR standards. For the Q4, we expect a low single digit percentage decline in NII, mainly due to rotation to higher yielding deposits. Credit loss expense in the quarter was CHF154 1,000,000 almost exclusively from Two factors related to Credit Suisse's Swiss Bank.

Speaker 3

First, we recognized CLE on loans, mainly the corporate counterparties that were already impaired on the merger date and deteriorated further this quarter as well as newly defaulted positions. 2nd, we moved to Stage 2 and provisioned in line with UBS' coverage ratio standards all loans, including those as of the merger date on Credit Suisse's watch list as well as those Lenny exposures that experienced a significant increase in credit risk during the Q3. Underlying operating expenses were roughly unchanged at $1,200,000,000 on lower personnel and litigation expenses with the underlying cost income ratio down quarter on quarter to 57%. Moving to Slide 19. In Asset Management, the underlying profit before tax increased to $156,000,000 on higher revenues and lower costs.

Speaker 3

Revenues were slightly higher at $755,000,000 with increases in net management fees driven by market performance and FX and higher performance fees from our hedge fund businesses. Operating expenses decreased to $599,000,000 mainly due to lower personnel expenses. Net new money in the quarter was negative $1,000,000,000 driven by Credit Suisse outflows, which continue to taper since the acquisition with inflows expected to gradually return from proactive client engagement. It's worth noting that the UBS side of the business attracted net new money inflows this quarter in a challenging environment for asset managers. We saw away from China, equities and hedge funds in the current market dynamic.

Speaker 3

Net new money excluding Money Markets and Associates was negative $8,300,000,000 Turning to the Investment Bank performance on Slide 20. Since the UBS IB has taken on only select parts of Credit Suisse's Investment Bank and the latter saw little activity in the 2nd quarter, We compare the results of the combined IB with standalone performance in the prior year's Q3. We will continue to offer year over year comparisons to standalone UBS IB performance in the quarters ahead, while also providing commentary on sequential developments until the Q3 of 2024 as with the other business divisions. The operating loss of $116,000,000 was a result of additional costs related to the retained portion of Credit Suisse's Investment Bank, which was only partially offset by standalone profit before tax in UBS IB as market conditions remain challenging for our business model. Underlying revenues, which exclude $251,000,000 of Poltepar accretion and other effects, declined 6% year over year to $1,900,000,000 amid muted client activity due to ongoing concerns around terminal interest rates and geopolitical events.

Speaker 3

Volatility across asset classes declined significantly from a year ago and global fee pools remain depressed. Against this backdrop, Global Banking revenues increased 36% with particular strength in Leveraged Capital Markets and strong performance in EMEA. Advisory outperformed the global fee pool and was further supported by revenues from the Heritage Credit Suisse franchise. Global Markets revenues declined 15% from a very strong 3rd quarter, reflecting lower revenues across macro products and equity derivatives. This was partly offset by growth in financing, supported by increased client balances.

Speaker 3

Overall, revenues generated from the retained portion of Credit Suisse's Investment Bank were $113,000,000 this quarter, primarily in advisory as well as derivatives and solutions. Operating expenses rose 27%, predominantly from additional personnel costs related to the retained portions of Credit Suisse's Investment Bank as well as higher technology costs and FX. As we manage the Investment Bank integration, we remain disciplined in our resource management. RWAs at 23% of the group's resources excluding NCL were roughly unchanged sequentially. Looking ahead, as the majority of the onboarding of our colleagues and positions to UBS IB Systems is planned for completion by the end of the year, We expect revenues to ramp up over the course of 2024.

Speaker 3

Given this timing, in addition to current market conditions and seasonality, We expect continued pressure on our underlying profitability in the 4th quarter. Moving to non core and legacy on Slide 21. Excluding integration related expenses, NCL generated an underlying operating loss of 1,000,000,000 Quarterly revenues of $350,000,000 consisted mainly of gains from the early unwind of loan commitments, while the portion of the NCL portfolio that remains on the accrual method of accounting was left broadly unchanged this quarter given recovery expectations on the underlying lending positions. Credit loss expense was $125,000,000 Additional provisions of $71,000,000 reflect application of the same extended credit watch list approach I described earlier in the context of P and C. We also saw $54,000,000 of charges from Stage 3 and purchased credit impaired loans that deteriorated further in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Underlying operating expenses reached $1,200,000,000 split roughly equally between personnel and non personnel costs. Integration related expenses of 918,000,000 consisted of onerous contract charges, real estate related expenses and personnel costs linked to headcount reductions and retention. For the Q4, we expect the underlying cost base in non core and legacy to decrease further from additional staff reductions whose costs are directly housed within or allocated to NCL. As Sergio mentioned, In the quarter, we took decisive actions to reduce RWAs. 5 of the total $6,000,000,000 reduction resulted from active derisking of exposures across the array of NCL portfolios.

Speaker 3

LRD was reduced by $52,000,000,000 including $15,000,000,000 resulting from lower HQLA requirements and $12,000,000,000 from the accounting reclassification of loan commitments from accrual to fair value. During the quarter, we completed the initial impact assessment on our operational risk RWA from the final Basel III standard, which comes into effect on January 1, 2025. Based on this initial study, we expect group op risk RWA to remain broadly unchanged at the current level of $145,000,000,000 We also determined on the basis of our impact assessment initial levels of RWA to a portion to each of our business divisions, including NCL. The $30,000,000,000 of operational risk RWA assigned to NCL this quarter is expected to diminish over time as a function of 2 considerations, the rundown of the NCL portfolio and the removal of certain legacy litigation matters given the lapse of time. On the basis of natural roll off In both contexts, we expect operational risk RWA and NCL to decrease to around $14,000,000,000 by the end of 2026.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, we continue to expect a roughly 5% increase from day 1 effects in 2025 from other final Basel III considerations, mainly FRTB. As we look ahead to the Q4, we expect many of the drivers of underlying profitability to continue to progress. In particular, we expect underlying operating expenses to decline sequentially as our core businesses realize incremental synergies and NCL remains focused on actively running down its portfolio to release capital and accelerate cost saves. In addition to the NII expectations that I described earlier, transactional activity may be affected by seasonal factors as well as client sentiment in response to the geopolitical landscape. Despite these elements, We are executing on our integration plans at pace and remain on track to achieve our goals of around a 15% return on CET1 Capital and a cost income ratio of less than 70% by the end of 2026.

Speaker 3

With that, let's open for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session for analysts and investors. The first question is from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have two questions and they may be linked. The first regarding outstanding SMB funding. I don't think there's any update in the disclosure material on where the number has moved to.

Speaker 4

I think the last disclosed number was CHF 38,000,000 at the end of August. Could you provide an update here? And possibly related to this, It looks to me looking at SMB data that there has not been a lot further reduction of SMB funding after August in September. Is that a good interpretation of the data? And is there any connection here between your management of the SMB funding and the new liquidity ordinance That has come into play that will come into place in January.

Speaker 4

And is it possible for you to give us a guidance On how your liquidity ratios will look like on the 1st January under this new liquidity ordinance in Switzerland, please? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hi, Stefan. Thanks for your questions. So in terms of the outstanding S and B funding, No, it's we still have the that funding levels are still unchanged at this stage. We are working through our business plans and as well as our funding plans And we'll consider the ability to repay some or all of that over the course of the coming months, but your read was correct. In connection with that funding and the Lick Ordinance, no.

Speaker 3

I'd say there's no specific Connection with that and we're not maintaining that funding, particularly in respect of satisfying The liquidity ordinance per se. That said, the LCR guidance that you're looking for, as we say, will remain prudent. So you can expect it to remain at levels not terribly far away from where we finished 3Q at.

Speaker 5

Great. That was very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Giulia Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, hi, good morning. Two questions from me. The first one on capital distribution. I know it's very early. I know I guess you will comment on Q4.

Speaker 6

But what are the stepping stones that we should look out for before you can resume a buyback? That's my first question. And then the second question is with respect to costs. In the quarter, there was an excellent delivery on costs and the €3,000,000,000 target by year end has already been achieved. So basically, where do we go from here?

Speaker 6

Can we assume that this steady path of cost saves can continue? Or Will there kind of be a pause until there is the legal merger because you have already basically extracted as much as you could of the low hanging fruit? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you. So in respect of the capital Distribution plan or capital return plans, as you pointed out, you're going to have to be patient. For the time being, I just can't reiterate that We are still looking to have a progressive cash dividend policy See, that will be implemented. And for the rest, you need to have what you need to see is the visibility with the plan.

Speaker 2

I just want to reiterate, I still believe at this stage, although the plan is not finished, that capital returns and share buybacks It's not a matter of years. In my point of view, it could be a matter of quarters. But without having the final plan, it's difficult To really make a final statement, but that will be addressed in February. And somehow it's linked to Your second question, because of course, I'm not so sure I would define the progress we've made so far as low hanging fruit. That's I think that it takes efforts and time to go through this.

Speaker 2

I do believe that we still have Costs that can be taken out during 2024 regardless of what you are pointing out being the critical issue is The merger, the legal entity merger is the triggering point that allow us to go to the next level of Cost reduction and synergy realizations from an operational standpoint of view, but also from an IT standpoint of view. So 2024, as Todd mentioned, is the and I also remark is a pivotal year. It's probably the one Time in which we're going to incur the most cost in order to achieve the synergies that we'll achieve in 20252026. So you see how the two questions are somehow linked.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Combs from Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Two questions from me, please. Firstly, on the GWM Net interest income trajectory, thank you for the commentary in your pre prepared remarks. I think you said after a 3% decline In Q3, you expect a mid single digit percentage decline in Q4 and that was an ongoing deposit mix shift. So that seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating.

Speaker 7

So can you give us any indication of how much longer you think that trend could continue for? Do you think now that we're at peak rates, is there anything that should slow as we go into 2024? And also if There's any implications from your broader deposit pricing that's also influencing that sequential NII decline? That's the first question. Second question, there's been quite a lot of media commentary over the past week ahead of the Too Big TO Fell Review coming out in spring next year, I think there's been some explicit discussion around potentially introducing more exit fees Or more notice periods around deposits.

Speaker 7

Is there anything you could say with regards to that? And also what that means for your competitive

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. On the first in terms of GWM NII trajectory, I think you captured it right in terms of guidance around the mid single digit decline, owing to deposit mix shifts And whether that seems like an acceleration, I'd comment that, I think what we're seeing is a bit of a broadening of that dynamic More across the globe. We saw in most of 2023 that dynamic being Very significantly driven by moves from sweep deposits into higher yielding deposits in the U. S.

Speaker 3

And we saw less of that in Europe and APAC, as well as in Switzerland. And so while we're seeing the U. S. Taper Now, both in the current quarter and as we look ahead, we're seeing a bit of an expansion of that dynamic in other parts of the globe and that's what's sort of driving that. As I look out into 2024, we're doing that work now.

Speaker 3

We'll come back with a view during February with a view on full year 20 I would just conclude on the point saying, no, I don't see pricing having an impact. I mean, this is just a response to the current rate environment as clients are undergoing cash sorting across Our client

Speaker 2

base. So in respect of what you mentioned in changes in the lower or Regulations around liquidity, I think I can only say that it's pretty difficult to track all the rumors, speculations And ideas that are coming up almost daily on the Swiss media. I think that I can always tell you That at this stage, what stands is that even the Finance Minister took an official stance on the matter. I mean, deserves Speculation, I don't believe this is going to be part of the package. I think that's I'm convinced that Switzerland will Keep its standards in terms of allowing responding to The crisis in March, not only the one in Switzerland, but broadly speaking with a following recommendation that will be set by the FSB and other bodies.

Speaker 2

And in that sense, I don't see us being particularly disadvantaged compared to any other jurisdictions in terms of liquidity ordinance. So I guess We will follow-up and I think it's going to still take months months before the full analysis of what happened will translate into concrete actions.

Operator

The next question is from Adam Terlak from Mediobanca. Ed?

Speaker 8

Good morning. Thank you for the questions. I had one big picture question on revenues and then a follow-up on the operational risk RWA. Big picture, your revenues at the minute are annualizing to low €40,000,000,000 or so. Clearly, your target has a number which is probably €50,000,000,000 plus.

Speaker 8

So I just want to understand how you see the revenue bridge from here 3 to 2027 and what the key moving parts should be, particularly in the context of some of your GWM trends, which At the minute, it seemed to be down before we go back up. And then secondly, on operational risk, I just want to understand some of the assumptions that are That are going into your Basel IV guidance there. Clearly, there's some uncertainty around ILM. There's a bit of uncertainty about what losses to use in that Standardized calculation, so what losses from the Credit Suisse business are you having to carry forward? And how does that impact your operational risk RWA.

Speaker 8

And then finally, can I just clarify on the Basel 3.1 finalization guidance, is that 5% ex any moves in operational risk?

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you, Adam. So in terms of revenues, I'm not So sure, we have indicated that we have a €50,000,000,000 plus revenue. I don't know where this figure is coming from. What I remember Saying back in August is that our targets, our ambitions for 2026 Not based on blue sky scenarios on revenues.

Speaker 2

So if anything, I guided to the contrary of that. So we are definitely focused on costs and we are definitely also focusing on the denominator. So we need to basically focus on managing and utilizing in a better way the resources and the risk weighted assets that we have right now. I have to go back to the critical point. The mission number 1 we have had in the last 6 months And in the foreseeable future is to restructure Credit Suisse, okay?

Speaker 2

And then we're going to talk about synergies and then we're going to talk about growth. But before we talk about growth of the top line, we need to restructure and reset the basis. And in that sense, Believe me, we are not counting on blue sky scenarios and that figure is not really our figures.

Speaker 8

Can I ask for a better landing point then?

Speaker 2

Well, the landing point you will see it in February.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Adam, on your second question in terms of op risk, RWA and modeling, as I mentioned, we did an initial impact assessment. It was quite dynamic. We've had only initial discussions with our regulator at this point in time, naturally Ahead of the formal introduction of Basel III Final for op risk RWA, there will be Much more extensive interactions with the regulator to agree on the particulars around the ILM. As you say, we made certain modeled assumptions As well as the loss history, we made certain assumptions about the loss history and the roll off of certain legacy matters. So it was a thoughtful analysis, a good initial view, but it's going to be one that requires More work and more engagement with our regulator over the coming months.

Speaker 3

On the 5%, Actually, no, it's not ex op risk, it's inclusive. But given that op risk we're saying, as I said in my remarks, We see that as broadly unchanged for now. The maths are the same either way.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Ross.

Operator

Next question is from Flora Boca Hutt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes. Good morning. I'd like to talk about the net new money, especially at CES this quarter because If I look at extrapolating the quarterly changes in net new money at TS that we've seen over the past two quarters, Seems to point to a run rate where you gain $20,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 of net new money per quarter. But then if I try and reconcile just the month of September from what you had disclosed with Q2, it looks like there's been a slowdown actually in net new money at yes with just EUR 2,000,000,000 in Wealth this month. So what should I consider as a more normalized level from here?

Speaker 9

Is it going to be Still the pace we saw over a quarterly basis or there is a slowdown because the environment is tougher? You probably have visibility there with what happened on October? And the second question is actually following up on this. I know you are going to provide us with the strategic update at the full year. But any hint as to what kind of assumptions you've made in your ROCE T1 target to up 26% regarding the AUM level, especially considering the fact that the market effect is turning for the more negative now?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hey, Flora. Thanks for the question. So on the Net new money for Credit Suisse Wealth. I appreciate you're doing a fair bit of the extrapolation math, but A long time in this business tells me that extrapolating net new money trends is probably not necessarily The way to go, certainly not from a month or so. The point we've made is that we've stabilized the business.

Speaker 3

We're seeing inflows after massive outflows. And that for us, as Sergio highlighted, was really objective number 1 was to stabilize the business that we've achieved. Look, going forward in any case,

Speaker 2

We're going to be

Speaker 3

reporting these metrics on a combined basis. We're just giving an indication because we talked about that. In the Q2, we gave an indication even up to the late publication date towards the end of August. So Serge and I wanted to follow through on that and offer that perspective. But the expectation going forward in any case is that wealth management, which is how we manage the business.

Speaker 3

We'll be providing a combined net new money plus dividend and interest figure going forward. And in terms of the ROCE T1 assumptions in terms of AUM levels, we're doing that Work now naturally when we develop the landing zone targets that we articulated in the second quarter, We had a view on growth, but now we're validating that in our business planning process and We'll come back and offer specificity around that in February.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Jeremy Siggy from BNP. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Thank you. I'd like to ask 2 questions about non core, if I could. The first one on the RWA outlook. You had a great start already reducing That balanced down quite effectively.

Speaker 10

The runoff you show in the slide is effectively the natural runoff with no action, but clearly you are taking action. So is it reasonable for us to expect that rather than being down 50%, it could be down 75% or 100% Percent within that sort of 3 year time frame. It seems that you're on a more aggressive trajectory than that passive runoff that you're showing in the slide. And then the second question is also about non core about the P and L. So you're annualizing in this quarter around €1,000,000,000 positive revenues and $5,000,000,000 of costs.

Speaker 10

I just wonder is that a representative starting point for us to sort of model non core going forward? And linked to that, how much could that change in 2024? Could we see will we still see positive revenues in 2024 in non core? And how much could we expect the costs to reduce in 2024 in non core?

Speaker 2

I think it's Todd. I mean, let me start with taking The one on the we are giving as we mentioned last time, we just give you a flavor for The natural decay in order for you to understand it, what would be the leftover in case we do nothing. And as you pointed out, we have been Pretty active. Having said that, I don't think it's reasonable to assume that we're going to take down 100% or 75% to 100% Percent per se, because it all depends on at what terms we will do it. The very critical topic here is that we have to do it in a way that creates value and not just headlines.

Speaker 2

So we can get rid of probably of many of those positions, but destroying a lot of value. And this will be in conflict with capital accretion and the ability for us to return capital to shareholders. So I think that It's very clear what is the framework we are using. And I think objective number 1 around encore It's not necessarily just to accelerate the wind down of assets, but it's to take down cost. That's the more much more critical element of freeing up capacity and resources.

Speaker 3

And Jeremy, on the P and L question, for sure, on the revenue side, I would not annualize The current quarter's revenues, the revenues are a function of The market through which we would exit these positions, it depends on the nature of Positions we're talking about, it depends on market conditions, we'll be opportunistic and everything Sergio just said that actually informs the dynamic About the speed, the timing, the intensity of when we get out of positions is of course What governs in that respect? So I would put no sort of target or certain extrapolation, certainly no extrapolation to The current quarter's revenues in NCL is saying, well, that's a run rate. On the cost side, that's I would argue that's different because There you're looking at on the underlying OpEx, you're looking at this point the run rate cost to support The rundown of the business. So as that business runs down, you would expect that the costs associated, the underlying OpEx supporting The portfolio will also run down. Now that may not be linear and I wouldn't expect it to be linear, but it ought to be In some way, shape or form correlated with the size of the balance sheet as it starts to diminish over time.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So just turning to tax. Obviously, we saw Some nice RWA reduction, but it was negated by the high tax charge. But at the same time, you're talking about mergers of the divisional structure to enable you to reduce the effective tax rate.

Speaker 11

I was wondering if you could give us More specificity on when we can expect that to happen. And would that be a gradual process For the reduction in the tax effective tax rate or would that be actually a step down change there? And then my second question is, you've done a good job on costs, well done there. The exit run rates for the end of the year, I was wondering if you could update us on

Speaker 3

that? Thanks, Andrew. So on the tax question, in terms of timing, as I mentioned in my remarks, Certainly, the elevated tax rate is a function of the fact that the expenses that are weighing on our pretax At the moment, in particular, the integration related expenses are being incurred in jurisdictions where we're not able to offset even within the jurisdictions necessarily offset profits And losses in different entities just given where they fall out. So there could be expenses or losses in one entity that's not tax group with an entity that is generating taxable profits and that's indeed what's happening really across the globe because The Credit Suisse entities in particular, as you'll appreciate under Credit Suisse AG, which is not yet merged with UBS AG, those are separate chains of entities. So therefore, anything happening on the CSAG side that you would otherwise ideally shelter with Profits of the UBS side isn't happening until we start the mergers.

Speaker 3

Now once we do that, your question was, is it a step or it's gradual? We'll see both. I mean, certainly, we'll see some immediate benefits by bringing together certain entities. Others are going to be harder work and harder planning to unlock some additional tax value and get the rate to a lower level. So you'll see Once the mergers take place over the course of 2024, you'll see some step down, but you'll also, as I said, gradually see the rate come back in.

Speaker 3

In terms of the update for year end, we did say that as of the Q3, we see the run rate saves In excess of $3,000,000,000 and expect to make further progress, we're undertaking actions at present. We haven't quantified that, but you can expect that there will be further progress in the Q4 before we exit 2023.

Speaker 11

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Amit Goel from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi, thank you. Two questions for me. So the first is, I mean, so clearly, the legal entity mergers are pretty important in terms of the kind of the cost and the tax and so forth. So do you mind just reminding us exactly the main pieces in terms and in terms of the timing? So Would you be expecting some of that to happen within the first half of the year?

Speaker 12

Or is that kind of second half? And just things that we can monitor to check the progress there. And then secondly, just in terms of the revenue Picture just into Q4, obviously, there's the commentary on the transactional Income and NII, just thinking, are you thinking the underlying revenues Q4 ex NCL are likely to be in line with what we've seen in Q3 or slightly better or due to seasonality slightly worse? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the questions, Amit. So on the legal entities terms of the main pieces and the timing, the big obviously the big groups to address are the parent banks That will take place, the 2 Swiss banks and then the U. S. IHCs and the subsidiaries below, I mean, I'd say those are and in the UK as well. And those are going to be the biggest chunks, of course, across the globe.

Speaker 3

There Also a lot of undertaking in Europe and in Asia, but the big I highlighted the big pieces because that's what you were looking for. We are working hard on developing plans for all of those. I think it's fair to say over the course of 2024, I won't at this stage speculate on exact timing, but we'll provide more updates as we go. And as we enter the year and as We go through the year, we'll give you more specificity around timelines. In terms of the revenue picture in the Q4, I mean, As you mentioned, repeating back that I offered some NII guidance for Our core businesses in terms of underlying NII, we do see the potential for transactional activities.

Speaker 3

I The market for transactional activities is a bit clouded at the moment. We are seeing some risk off even though earlier this month, certainly some of the less hawkish sentiment Coupled with further rate hike pauses and seeing bonds and equities rally more recently, That would suggest perhaps more risk on, but I think that's all counterbalanced as well in our clients' minds also about what's happening in the Middle East. And so we do see the potential for TRx in our asset gathering As well as transactional activity in our IB to potentially be affected by that. And as you mentioned, seasonality will for sure In any event, it will be a factor. So I'd say the revenue picture is a bit clouded, but I at this point wouldn't necessarily expect it to Increase quarter on quarter significantly at this stage.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thanks. And just on the legal entity piece. So just sorry, from my understanding, it's like getting the legal work done and getting the regulators to kind of sign off and Just in terms of the main things that obviously have to get done to do the mergers.

Speaker 3

Is that right? That's correct. There is a lot of planning to be done. The planning manuals are incredibly extensive and of course It needs to be approved by the regulators. And when you think about the parent bank and how many jurisdictions they operate in, you're talking about regulators Across the world.

Speaker 3

So these are not simple transactions by any stretch of the imagination.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Benjamin Goyal from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Two questions, please. The first, if you could maybe speak about the profitability of the recovery of funds and assets of Corie Suisse and how that's going the discussion with clients there? And the second is, it looks like in particular noncore significantly outperformed your Expectations you said in Q2 in Q3. So just wondering what does it mean for the budget, so to say, you have to on accelerated rundown in Q4 and beyond?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

I mean, in terms of the non core, I don't think that's extrapolating a quarter is meaningful. I do, As Todd mentioned before, we need to look at In some cases, we were able to dispose that assets above marks in orders we will need to make an assessment about what we It's the value of those positions, but I would pay attention to not to use the 3rd quarter numbers and extrapolate and call it that it's better than what we expected because we didn't really give any guidance on that. So I mean, I think that we are confident that the quality broadly speaking of the assets is there. They are non core assets per se. The vast majority is not problematic and therefore, I'm not overly concerned about the revenue or the cost to exit.

Speaker 2

As I mentioned before, it's more of a matter of addressing the cost to sustain those assets than it is about managing out and the answer themselves. In terms of recovery of the funds, we see The win back strategy is still in place. We have been we are is very focused and what I probably what I can offer As a comment is, as time goes by, we saw it already in the Q2 of the year After the announcement of the transaction and definitely has been confirmed in the Q3, basically the Q3 is a year after you started to See departure of assets and client advisor from Credit Suisse. Despite the massive outflows that you saw, The amount of assets that were able to be moved by the people that were serving those assets has been Within what we expected, on average, no more than 20%. So the first big issue is to say that we have been able to keep The vast majority of the assets, so it's very difficult for people that moves out to be able to bring the assets with them.

Speaker 2

So If you look at the numbers, it's quite I can give you maybe a little bit of anecdotal evidence. I mean, we lost around 5 or Credit Suisse in the last 12 months lost around 500 client advisors. They moved so far €20,000,000,000 of assets. So And let's say that we're going to lose further assets because some of those people just left more recently and we're going to see some outflows later on. But we are totally convinced that it's not going to be a multiple of that EUR 20,000,000,000 the future outflows.

Speaker 2

So and we are working hard to recapture some of it. So I think that our strategy now is more focused on regaining The clients that left because of fears of the instability of the system And in that sense, we maintain our ambitions. As we say, most likely we're going to formulate these ambitions, as Todd mentioned, as a combined wealth management business going forward. Because I mean, it's not really an issue any longer Credit Suisse versus UBS. It's one team.

Speaker 2

We are working on maximizing the outcome. And so we're going to just outline our net new money growth So ambitions in our 3 year plan in a way that reflects windbags and organic growth.

Operator

The next question is from Christopher Hallum from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Just 2 for me. So on profitability, clearly better than expected Previously, you'd guided for positive underlying PBT and H2 and breakeven in the Q3. So given the 3rd quarter is already Quite positive.

Speaker 13

Does that change how we should think about Q4? I guess the old guidance implied a sequential improvement in the Q4 in terms of PBT. So just wondering whether that's Still the right way to think about that? And then second, and I appreciate it's a bit of a follow-up to some of the earlier questions on CS net new money. You've given the I just wanted to check whether the combined regional picture sort of Asia strong, EMEA strong, Switzerland more balanced.

Speaker 13

Is that consistent across both the CS and UBS Wealth franchises?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Christopher. Yes, on the second question, it is consistent, obviously ex the U. S. Given CS doesn't have a wealth presence there, but across it is. I would say the APAC and EMEA Proportionality holds obviously on the smaller base that we were talking about terms of the net inflows this quarter compared to the UBS side.

Speaker 3

But yes, that dynamic does hold. In terms of profitability in the Q4, I would say that we certainly accelerated a bit of what We were forecasting back in August in terms of 3Q, 4Q, where we said roughly breakeven in 3Q and further progress 4Q, I think we've seen the progress that we've been able to accelerate. So really undertaking and executing integration at pace and you see the results of that. I'd say 4Q in a way standing alone relative to how we saw it Back in August, it's still around the same. So I would look meaning, I would say we expect 4Q to come in Better than breakeven, which is what we said was the case back in August.

Speaker 3

And I would say balancing The execution on the cost side, but also considering some of how we're guiding on the revenue side, I think that number You have an idea of where we at this stage expect that number to come in.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Todd. Helpful. Okay. This was the last question. Let me thank you for dialing in.

Speaker 2

And by just quickly reiterating, as you can see, we are in full Execution mode, but also at the same time, we are planning for the future and The next milestones other than the operational one, I just or we just described is to prepare the 3 year plan that we will present in February. In the meantime, we are very focused really on, as I said, on execution. And I'm totally convinced That's we are in a good place. And of course, we In our mission is to really create some things that will not only be a huge restructuring story, but also something that I set the base for future growth and ambitions that we have. I'm we look forward to present you the 3 year plan in February.

Speaker 2

And I'm sure in the meantime, we're going to be in touch either directly or through my colleagues for the follow ups of this call. Thank you for calling in and enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q and A session for analysts and investors is over. You may disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with the media Q and A session at 10:45 CET.

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Earnings Conference Call
UBS Group Q3 2023
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