Casey's General Stores Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
December 12, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Casey's General Stores Second Quarter Fiscal Year 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Thank you for joining us to discuss the results from our Q2 ended October 31, 2023. I am Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Business Development. With me today are Dan Rebelles, Board Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer and Steve Bramlage, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'll remind you that certain statements made by us during this investor call may constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward looking statements include any statements relating to expectations for future periods, Possible or assumed future results of operations, financial conditions, liquidity and related sources or needs, The company's supply chain, business and integration strategies, plans and synergies, growth opportunities and performance at our stores.

Speaker 1

There are a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by those Forward looking statements, including but not limited to the integration of the recent acquisitions, our ability to execute on our strategic plan or to realize benefits from the strategic plan, The impact and duration of the conflict in Ukraine and related governmental actions as well as other risks, uncertainties and factors that are described and our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q as filed with the SEC and available on our website. Any forward looking statements made during this call reflect our current views as of today with respect to future events and Casey's disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A reconciliation of non GAAP to GAAP financial measures referenced in this call as well as a detailed breakdown of the operating expense increase for the 2nd quarter can be found on our website at www.caseys.com under the Investor Relations link. With that said, I'd now like to turn the call over to Darren to discuss our Q2 results.

Speaker 1

Darren?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. We'll discuss the excellent second quarter results in a moment. First, I want to thank our team, including the new team members in our 17th State of Texas, for their dedication and hard work. We're excited to welcome the great state of Texas to the Casey's community. I know I speak for our entire team I'd like to say we're extremely humbled by the response from our caring guests and dedicated team members to our annual Veterans Giving campaign in November.

Speaker 2

This year's campaign resulted in over $1,200,000 just an outstanding outcome and for 2 great causes, Hope for the Warriors and children of fallen patriots. We are so grateful to our communities and guests for their generous act of rounding up their purchase. As a veteran myself, I know the great sacrifices these families have made and the challenges they face. Thank you to our partners at PepsiCo who contribute to this campaign, our Casey's team members and especially to our guests who truly do good when they shop in Casey's. Now let's discuss the results from the quarter.

Speaker 2

Diluted earnings per share finished at $4.24 per share, a 16% increase from the prior year. Insight sales remained strong, driving Insight gross profit dollars up 10% to $553,000,000 The company generated $159,000,000 in net income, an increase of 15% and $306,000,000 in EBITDA, an increase of 13% from the prior year. Inside the store, same store sales were up despite lapping a very strong Q2 last year, While margins improved both sequentially and year over year as ingredient costs improved. On the fuel side of the business, We continue to strike the right balance between volume and margin. Similar to the Q1, there are no significant macro events that impacted wholesale fuel costs.

Speaker 2

With each passing quarter, it becomes more evident that higher industry fuel margins are here to stay. With another strong quarter, which led to our highest EBITDA in the 1st 6 months in the company's history, the strength of our unique business model was again on full display. The team continues to do an excellent job operating the business efficiently and effectively, both inside and outside the store, As evidenced by same store labor hours being down 2%, while our overall guest satisfaction score was up over 400 basis points over the prior year. I would now like to go over our results and share some of the details in each of the categories. Inside same store sales were up 2.9% from the 2nd quarter or 11% on a 2 year stack basis with an average margin of 41.1%.

Speaker 2

We saw notably strong performance in whole pizza pies, bakery and dispensed beverage. We're also very pleased with the continued inside margin expansion this quarter. Same store prepared food and dispensed beverage Sales were up 6.1% or 17.2% on a 2 year stack basis with an average margin of 59%, up approximately 230 basis points from the prior year. Whole Pies performed well in the quarter and we also saw strong performance with appetizers and sides. Margin was favorably impacted by softening in commodities, notably cheese during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Same store grocery and general merchandise sales were up 1.7% or 8.7% on a 2 year stack basis with an average margin of 34%, an increase of approximately 70 basis points from the prior year. We saw positive momentum in the category, Notably in alcoholic beverages and our private label program continues to be a great value option with bottled water and cases shipped performing well in the quarter. For fuel, same store gallons sold were flat with a fuel margin of $0.423 per gallon. Our fuel team is striking the right balance between volume growth and margin and the results continue to show it. This quarter marks the 10th quarter in a row with fuel margins about $0.345 per gallon and 5 in the last 6 quarters have been over $0.40 per gallon.

Speaker 2

Our volume continues to outperform our geographic market as well, as Opus fuel gallons sold data shows the Mid Continent region down approximately 5% in the quarter. I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve to discuss the financial results from the Q2. Steve?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Darren, and good morning. Our performance was excellent in the Q2 as we saw great results inside and with fuel, while we continue to operate the stores efficiently. This was despite a challenging comparison from the Q2 last year, and that's a testament to the resiliency of our business model and our team's execution. Total revenue for the quarter was $4,100,000,000 an increase of $86,000,000 or 2% from the prior year, due primarily to higher inside revenues. Total inside sales for the quarter were $1,300,000,000 and that's an increase of $78,000,000 or 6% from prior year.

Speaker 3

For the quarter, grocery and general merchandise sales increased by $47,000,000 to 964,000,000 an increase of 5.2%. Prepared food and Spence beverage sales rose by $31,000,000 to 382,000,000 an increase of 80 an increase of 8.9%. Results were also favorably impacted by operating more stores on a year over year basis. Retail fuel sales were up $11,000,000 in the 2nd quarter as a 4% increase in gallons sold to $730,000,000 was partially offset by a 3.5% decrease in the average retail price per gallon. Net average retail price of fuel during the period was $3.62 a gallon compared to $3.75 a year ago.

Speaker 3

We define gross profit as revenue less cost of goods sold, but excluding depreciation and amortization. Casey's had gross profit of $886,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, an increase of $75,000,000 or 9.2 percent from the prior year. This was driven by both higher in site gross profit of $48,800,000 or 9.7 percent and higher fuel gross profit of $24,400,000 or 8.6%. Inside gross profit margin was 41.1 percent and that's up 130 basis points from a year ago. The grocery and general merchandise margin was 34%, an increase of 70 basis points from prior year.

Speaker 3

The increase was due primarily to favorable vendor funded promotions and volume discounts, a lower LIFO charge than in the prior year as well as private label increasing its share of our mix. Prepared food and dispensed beverage margin was 59%, up 2 30 basis points from prior year. The category margin benefited from lower commodity costs, specifically cheese, which was $2.12 a pound for the quarter compared to $2.24 a pound last year, a decrease of about 5%. Margin also benefited from a lower LIFO charge The prior year as generally input costs softened. Fuel margin for the quarter was $0.423 per gallon, up $0.018 per gallon from the prior year.

Speaker 3

Fuel gross profit benefited by $8,400,000 from the sale of RINs, down $2,700,000 from the same quarter in the prior year. Total operating expenses were up 7.5% or $40,500,000 in the 2nd quarter. Over 3% of the total OpEx increase is due to unit growth as we operated 129 more stores year over year. Same store employee expense accounted for another 1% of the increase as increases in wage rates were partially offset by the reduction in same store hours Darren previously mentioned. The company also incurred higher variable incentive compensation, repair, maintenance and insurance expense that composed 2% of the total increase.

Speaker 3

Depreciation in the quarter was $85,600,000 and that's up $7,500,000 versus prior year, primarily due to operating more stores. Net interest expense was $12,300,000 in the quarter, down $1,200,000 versus the prior year aided by rising interest rates on our cash balances. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 23.6%, consistent with the prior year. Net income was up versus prior year to $158,800,000 an increase of 15.4 percent And EBITDA for the quarter was $305,900,000 compared to $271,700,000 a year ago, an increase of 12.6%. Our balance sheet remains in excellent condition and we have ample financial flexibility on October 31.

Speaker 3

We had total available liquidity of $1,300,000,000 Furthermore, we have no significant maturities coming due until fiscal 2026. Our leverage ratio calculated in accordance with our senior notes is now 1.6 times. For the quarter, net cash generated by operating activities of $253,000,000 was purchases of property and equipment of 107,000,000 The company generating $146,000,000 in free cash flow. This compares to generating $115,000,000 in the prior year. At the December meeting, the Board of Directors voted to maintain the quarterly dividend at $0.43 per share.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we also repurchased approximately $30,000,000 of stock and have $340,000,000 remaining on our existing share repurchase authorization. Investing in EBITDA and ROIC accretive growth investments remains our primary capital allocation priority. But as we mentioned at our Investor Day, our balance sheet affords us the opportunity to be more opportunistic than in the recent past with regards to share repurchase. Our M and A pipeline remains strong and our integration capabilities continue to expand. The transaction with EG Group mentioned last quarter has closed and that transaction as well as the other announced deals are being funded with cash on hand.

Speaker 3

The majority of these payments either occurred in the Q2 or they will occur in the Q3. And this includes the transaction of 22 stores in our 17th state of Texas, which closed on November 16. As a result of the strong financial performance and unit growth year to date, We are updating our fiscal 2024 outlook as follows: fiscal 2024 EBITDA growth is expected to be in line with the long term strategic plan's goal of 8% to 10%. The company also expects to repurchase at least $100,000,000 in shares throughout the fiscal year. Same store inside sales are now expected to increase 3.5% to 5%.

Speaker 3

Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $53,000,000 and the tax rate is now expected to be approximately 23% to 25% for the year. As discussed in the Q1, the company expects to add at least 150 stores in fiscal 2024, that's more than the originally 110. As a result of this, total operating expenses are now expected to increase approximately 6% to 8%, Though same store operating expenses excluding credit card fees are expected to only increase approximately 3% for the year. Depreciation and amortization are now expected to be approximately $350,000,000 for the year. The company is not updating its outlook for the following metrics.

Speaker 3

We expect inside margin to be approximately 40% to 41%. The company expects same store fuel gallons sold to be between negative 1% and positive 1% And the purchase of property and equipment is expected to be $500,000,000 to $550,000,000 Our results for the current quarter are as follows: 1st, November inside same store sales are consistent with the updated range of Annual outlook. Fuel gallons are near the midpoint of the annual outlook and CPG is nearly $0.40 per gallon. Current cheese costs are modestly favorable versus the prior year. And now on a final note, as a reminder, in the Q3 Fiscal 'twenty three, we had a one time operating expense benefit of approximately $15,000,000 due to the favorable resolution of a legal matter.

Speaker 3

This benefit will not recur, thus total 3rd quarter operating expenses will be up near the low teens in percentage terms, And that's primarily due to lapping the one time benefit as well as store growth and several $1,000,000 of one time integration costs. If we were not lapping this one time benefit from the prior year, total OpEx would be up approximately 8% to 9% in 3rd quarter. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Darren.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Steve. I'd like to thank the entire Katzys team for another quarter of outstanding results. We know that it's a challenging time for consumers everywhere. We're so proud of the ability of our team members and stores to serve those guests with high quality products. Our private label program continues to shine and we saw positive growth in units and gross profit dollars during the quarter and continue to see a favorable impact on inside margin.

Speaker 2

And our guests are gravitating towards Casey Rewards as we have over 7,300,000 members today. On the prepared food and dispense beverage side, thin crust pizza continues to do well and has achieved a 13% share of whole pies throughout the quarter. The innovation team also moved to the breakfast day part for the launch of the ultimate waffle breakfast sandwich, which is coming out of the gate strong. Our continuous improvement team deserves praise for all it has done to operate the stores efficiently and effectively, while maintaining or improving guests and team member satisfaction. The team was able to take out another 2% same store labor hours in the quarter.

Speaker 2

We continue to expand our store count with complementary geographic growth. Recent acquisitions have strengthened our Eastern footprint in Kentucky and Tennessee, while we've also ventured into Texas, which we think is a hand in glove fit in our Southwest footprint. All of the stores are within our existing distribution radius It fits the Casey's playbook of rural and suburban geographies. On the fuel side of the business, we had another strong quarter, both in fuel margin and gallons. With each passing quarter, we are becoming more confident that our industry has, as a necessity due to higher operating expenses, reset to a higher fuel margin environment.

Speaker 2

And with our team and the capabilities that we've stood up, we're focused on continuing to maximize gross profit dollars. As we look ahead to the second half of fiscal twenty twenty four and beyond, I'm excited about Casey's and our ability to execute our strategic plan. Our balance sheet affords us the ability to be disciplined, but opportunistic with our store growth and our capabilities throughout the organization will allow for that growth to be efficient and innovative. We'll now take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Please wait for your name to be announced. Again, we ask that you please limit your questions to 1 and one follow-up until all have had a chance to ask a question, after which we will answer any additional questions from you as time permits. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. One moment for our first question.

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Ben Bienvenu with Stephens, your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hi, thanks. Good morning, guys. Good morning, Matt. Good morning. Steve, I want to follow-up on the commentary you gave on quarter to date.

Speaker 4

You noted that the inside same store sales Results in the month of, I guess, November, and I don't know if that includes the stub period of December, but it's within the range of the annual guidance. Does the composition of the same store sales growth look similar to 2Q and that prepared foods is outpacing grocery? And any color that you can offer on kind of that divergence, grocery moderating in the second quarter while Same store sales and prepared food remains very strong would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Sure, Ben. I'll answer the first part of that and let Darren talk a little bit about The experience in the second quarter. The commentary is meant to be quarter to date, so it includes a little bit of a stub period Into December and yes, generally, we're within the annual range for total inside and prepared food Quarter to date is running a little bit stronger than groceries similar to what we experienced in the second Darren, you want to make a couple of comments on that Q2 experience?

Speaker 2

Yes. In the Q2, Ben, We saw a little bit of softness on the grocery and general merchandise side. That was primarily in the tobacco category, specifically cigarettes. And I think you've seen that throughout the industry that cigarette volume was significantly softer in the Q2 and so that offset Strength in some of the other categories. We also encountered a little bit of weather anomalies, which I don't typically like to talk about, but it does impact the beverage business To a certain degree and we saw some of that in October as well.

Speaker 2

But I didn't see anything trend wise outside of the cigarettes. It was very concerning and I think What was encouraging to us is that our prepared food growth actually accelerated from the Q1 into the second. And so Very strong 2 year comps plus 17%. And so we're seeing the overall business perform very well.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. My second question is related to your operating expense growth guidance. You raised that. You noted that 3Q growth year over year will be elevated and implied in kind of the updated guidance that you've given in the 3Q commentary that you've given is Pretty substantial step down in growth from 3Q to 4Q. Is it just a function of comparisons or what else is going on there?

Speaker 4

You made nice progress on the period

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll start with that, Ben. I would expect year over year Total OpEx growth to be the highest in the Q3 and that's purely a function of lapping the benefit we had last year and then you're combining that with the fact that now all of these year to date acquisitions, all of which have closed Relatively recently, certainly the EG and the Texas transactions will have several $1,000,000 of integration related Activity and almost all of that will hit us in the Q3. And so I would expect that we would be back to you can call those back into the number Mechanically in the Q4, but we would be back into a more normalized run rate in the 4th quarter, albeit with a higher number of units coming into the system. But that 3% number we gave for Same store OpEx excluding credit cards, that number should be very consistent quarter in and quarter out, just and that's a testament How well the mothership is managing OpEx at the stores right now.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Bonadio with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats on the nice quarter. So I just wanted to ask about fuel margins In the context of the new guidance, I'm getting something in the mid $0.30 per gallon, maybe a little higher implied in the back half Can you just talk about why that's the right number and then just different puts and takes around that?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Anthony. With respect to the fuel margin, we tend to prefer to be a little bit conservative on those forecasts because as you well know, it's Pretty volatile category. That being said, we've seen 5 out of the last 6 quarters It'll be in that $0.40 range. So, we're not we don't see anything specifically that would cause a pullback in fuel margin, But we're just being conservative on that front. And so that's really about it in terms of the modeling.

Speaker 5

Okay, got it. And then just on inside margins, obviously another very strong quarter there. I know you guys have kind of talked about being comfortable around that 40 It seems like the current environment of the things like mix as well as a lot of the things you guys are doing internally So it remains favorable. I guess, can you just talk about the sustainability of what we're seeing today and just how you're thinking about the trade off between sort of flowing that through versus investing in value?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, We think the margins are sustainable for a couple of reasons. When you look at how the mix is evolving, With the tobacco category being one of the lower margin categories in the assortment and That the size of that category shrinking as a percentage of the total business, that's favorable to a margin rate As that mix becomes more heavily reliant on the higher margin categories, the second piece of that is our Prepared Food business. Our Prepared Food business continues to grow and you saw the margin expansion in that business. And so when you combine those 2, that's a more sustainable Margin mix.

Speaker 2

And the third thing I would say is our private label continues to grow inside the portfolio, which also blends up the margin. So those three things are all working for us. Now with respect to investing in value, We do invest in value to a certain extent today primarily through our private brand. And so with our private label products, even though They represent a significant value to the guests. Those are highly margin accretive to us.

Speaker 2

So that works out well. And more recently, what we're seeing from a consumer standpoint is that at the lower end of the Economic spectrum, you're starting to see consumers shift heavier over to prepared foods as opposed to grocery and general merch. I think that's just a function of the relative value that our prepared food represents versus Some of the other snack products and packaged good products you see on the other side. So all of that is constructive to margins. So that's why we think that's sustainable and we don't need to engage in extreme value offerings to Maintain and drive the traffic.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. I had a question on your Grotian general merchandise. First, your same store sales were a bit soft.

Speaker 6

So Hoping for a little bit more color on the drivers of this and more color on SIG sales in the quarter, Darren. I know you called that out, but just Curious to hear if your cig business decelerated versus Q1 and wondering if you're making any changes To your nicotine category or possibly pricing on cigs to mitigate some of these pressures?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure Bonnie. I I think on the cig category itself, just combustible cigarettes were down about 4% in the quarter. And Typically what we've been able to do is pass on price and have that price flow through and The unit decline offset and still stay relatively positive on the Dollars in the category, that was not the case in this last quarter. I think to a large extent that's a reflection of where the consumer is right now. As you know, the cigarette consumer tends to be a lower income consumer generally.

Speaker 2

And so what we've seen is a bit of trade down from that consumer into either not buying cigarettes as frequently or trading down to lower tier brands. And so, our team is assessing where to go from here on the cigarette category, but That's not as significant a category for us as it is for others. So we don't feel the need to knee jerk react. I mean, we still Had a strong quarter. We were still constructive on margin.

Speaker 2

Our gross profit dollars are growing at an accelerated rate relative to our peers. And so we don't feel any sort of undue pressure to do something different. We'll have to see how Things play out with that category over time.

Speaker 6

Yes, that makes sense. And then curious to hear your Color on the consumer and maybe how things have changed in the last few months and maybe your outlook. And also just in the context of that, color on your dayparts, maybe where stronger or weaker than expected, especially the morning daypart? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I guess if I step back and I look at our consumer base, I'd just remind everybody that About 3 quarters of our consumers make over $50,000 a year and given our geographic footprint, We are in a very low cost of living geography. In fact, the most expensive state we operate in is ranked 27th and cost of living. So that $50,000 go a long way. So with that cohort of gas, 75% or so, We're really not seeing any change in consumption behavior.

Speaker 2

The changes we're seeing is on the other 25%, which are lower income consumers. And so We've seen a couple of things there. They're gravitating more towards our private label. Their cigarette purchases have been impacted both in Univilocity and in just what they are buying when they do buy, like we were just mentioning. They're pulling back on premium fuels and opting more towards ethanol blended fuels.

Speaker 2

But Generally speaking, that's for that cohort of guests. So as we look forward, we still feel really good about The value proposition that we offer, 80% of our guests believe that we offer a good value for the money and our traffic was flat over the quarter inside the store and our gallons were flat outside the store. And We're not suffering from a lack of traffic and we're seeing people gravitate more towards the prepared foods as a relative value proposition. So We think as we look forward to the balance of the year, we still feel really good about the resilience of the consumers in our geography.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Good morning, buddy. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Good morning.

Speaker 2

I guess the first

Speaker 7

question for me is, Is it possible for you to size what the tobacco drag was on the grocery segment just so we can get a little bit of a better flavor of how kind of the business performed ex tobacco?

Speaker 3

Yes, Bobby. We would have been about 100 basis points higher top line growth ex Tobacco and grocery.

Speaker 7

Perfect. That's very helpful. And then I guess secondly for me is just on the labor hours reduction and other great performance this quarter. Is the team finding new task and opportunities inside the store and those are kind of the reduction? Or is this a function of kind of the Lower overtime that we've discussed in the past given that turnover continues to move in the right direction as well?

Speaker 7

Or is it a combo of both, I guess?

Speaker 2

Yes, Bobby, I'd say it's a combination of both. Really, it's primarily driven though by That continuous improvement team identifying non value added work that we can take out of the stores. That would be the primary The impact, so that's a 2% reduction in labor hours. The overtime in training year over year is actually flattened out in terms of dollars, But we're using less hours when you factor in the wage rate. So if you think about flat dollars, but Our average wage year over year is up about 3.5%.

Speaker 2

So that over time came down a bit, training was about flat. So we think it is a combination, not as dramatic as it was last year when we were really taking big swaths of Over time and training out, with the reduced turnover. The turnover continues to reduce, It's just not at the same rate as it was last year.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Silkelsky with Northcoast. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Good morning, everyone. Great quarter. I've got another question about the labor hours. What are you still able to do around the fine tuning the store hours and The number of stores that are doing pizza delivery and the number of days they're doing pizza delivery, how much of that is still available to help The store labor hour calculation.

Speaker 2

Yes, Chuck. I would say that There's probably limited upside on that front as we sit here today. Our team constantly evaluates Operating hours overall to determine whether we need to make adjustments there. But I would say that, that process is pretty dialed in at this point. So It'd be just fine tuning here and there.

Speaker 2

In terms of labor relative to delivery, We have a small number of stores that are still doing delivery. I think it's a couple of 100. It's up 40% of our stores we deliver. So, about 10%, so call it 2 50 stores. They're delivering ourselves and the rest of it is through 3rd party.

Speaker 2

So, That's not a labor impact for us. It is a margin impact when we have that delivery. But because that We only pay per delivery. We don't have a delivery driver at the store waiting for another delivery order to come in. It's a far more efficient way for us to do delivery.

Speaker 2

So that's probably run its course as well. Okay.

Speaker 8

And then in private label products, where are you at on number of SKUs and where is your goal on that?

Speaker 2

Yes. We've got 310 SKUs in the assortment right now and That's a result of adding a number of SKUs in the last quarter and then taking some out that just weren't performing as well as we expected them to. So still it's the highest SKU count that we've had on private label since we've started. There's still plenty of runway there. The team's got a pipeline of products that we'll be introducing over the next several quarters.

Speaker 2

And then we're also starting to evaluate Different tiers of private label, so think of premium products that would still be A significant value versus national brand, but of elevated quality and uniqueness. So still a lot of way to go there.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Kelly Bania with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. This is Ben Wood on Kelly, thank you for taking our questions. So for the past three quarters, you've had flat gallons, which Seems to be outpacing public peers down low single digit and outpacing the broader industry where you compete in, where your commentary seems to be pointing towards down mid single digit for that period implying pretty solid market share gains. So first, can you provide any color on what you guys think is driving those market share gains? Is it loyalty or the value proposition inside the store?

Speaker 9

Are you investing some fuel margin to get the bargain hunting customer? And then second, just more generally, if the industry and your competitors Are losing gallons at a mid single digit pace, is that sustainable longer term or at some point are the independents and small chain operators going to have to Change strategy to try to drive some more gallons through their stores?

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me take the first part first, the flat gallons and how we're driving. If I step back, Our stated strategy, which has not changed since I've been here and four and a half years I've been here, for our fuel Team is to drive gross profit dollars in fuel and to maximize gross profit dollars in fuel. That's going to be a combination of balancing Gallon growth and fuel margin. And so we don't look at a fuel margin number and try to achieve that number in any given quarter.

Speaker 2

Our goal is to balance those 2 to maximize gross profit dollars. And so I think this was a great example in this quarter of doing that. We maintained flat gallons and like you said over the last Several quarters, we maintained those flat gallons and we were north of $0.40 a gallon on March. Now, If you were to look at the OPUS numbers, I think this is reflective of what's going on in the industry right now. OPUS would Say that fuel margin in our geography was about $0.48 a gallon.

Speaker 2

So that was higher than where we were clearly. It also said that gallons were down 5.2% in the quarter, significantly below where we are. To your second question, that is not sustainable for them. It clearly isn't. But what it is, is it's a reflection of the challenges that Smaller and midsized operators are facing with inflation and in particular the impact that the tobacco category has And if you look at what their mix is, their mix is probably 40% to 50% cigarettes.

Speaker 2

And so when that category underperforms like it has the last Quarter or 2, that's going to have a material impact on their P and L. They don't have a choice. They're operating in survival mode right now. And so they're taking that higher margin and willing to sacrifice those gallons to get it. And that's in the short term that can work If you're trying to survive in the long term, it's not sustainable.

Speaker 2

For us, we're not in that position. We're not as exposed to the tobacco category as the others. And We benefit from keeping that traffic in the store because we have high margin prepared foods to sell people and high margin private label to sell people A lot of those others don't have. So it's important for us to keep that balance, to keep that traffic. And you can see in the EBITDA results where most are going backwards in EBITDA, We had double digit growth in EBITDA.

Speaker 2

So that is not just one metric or the other, it's a combination of all of these things working together that really makes our algorithm work for us.

Speaker 3

Yes. Ben, maybe I would add one thing there is it just it also continues to drive smaller operators out of the industry In the long run, it's just more and more difficult for small independent operators to compete, not just against us, But just anybody with any reasonable amount of scale, and so part of the we believe part of the Long line of consolidation opportunities that exist today in the industry is a function of it's just getting harder and harder for The smaller operators do business and we just don't see that trend changing anytime in the near term, partially because of all the dynamics we just discussed.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then, I know so I know we're only 2 quarters in, but with the guidance update, you're now expecting EBITDA growth within the long term plan compared to kind of originally pointing us towards flat. And one of the discussion points at your Analyst Day was that your original plan seemed to imply an acceleration in EBITDA growth. We calculated kind of the 12% to 15% range in year 2 year 3. Have expectations for the cadence changed or is some acceleration EBITDA growth and eventually getting above that 8% to 10% long term plan still the right way to think about it?

Speaker 3

I'll take a crack at that. I would not divine anything into our updating here midstream in the 1st year around what we're saying In the out years of year 23, we're committed to 8% to 10% CAGR over that 3 year period of time. The reality is that the year has clearly started off stronger than we anticipated, that it would be and some of that's Clearly, fuel margin related and some of that's just really good performance across the operations. And so, we'll take a stronger start than we anticipated every day of the week and we still feel equally good about all of our longer medium and long term prospects driving growth as we did when we had the Investor Day.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christina Catay with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. So on private label, which has been very successful for you, I was just Curious to get an update on how your joint planning is going for the new calendar year with your national brand partners. Are they noticing or potentially Responding to KC taking unit share in grocery and anything you can share on expectations around pricing starting in January on and if you think that there's any possibility that maybe prices are going to start to roll back?

Speaker 2

Yes. Christina, I guess on joint planning, we are in the process of wrapping that up as we speak. And I think the planning sessions have gone really well so far. We've had good success over the last couple of years working with Our primary CPG partners and growing their business and ours together. And so We enter into all of these discussions with App Spirit and I think we have some really good plans doing the final stages of development working right now.

Speaker 2

With respect to the private label, it really kind of depends on the category and the manufacturer we're talking Our goal always and we communicate this with our partners is not to Steel share from a national, I guess, to grow the overall category and growing the category both with national branded products as well as Private label products, and I've used chips as an example. In the last quarter, we had a really strong Quarter in chips, the Nashville brands grew 10% and 2% positive unit growth. That's good result in the quarter. Our private label chips grew 38% 33% units in the quarter. So it is possible to do both and to have the success in both.

Speaker 2

And so That's what we're striving for with all of this is to achieve that. In some cases, our national brand manufacturers are also the manufacturers of their with respect to private label products. So, we have varying degrees of integration on that front. In terms of pricing, not really prepared to talk about pricing. Those conversations are still underway, but we would anticipate Some low single digit inflation probably being passed through somewhere around the beginning of the year calendar year.

Speaker 10

Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up on some of your comments around the low end consumer trading down. Do you think that you're attracting a new customer in your prepared food business, as part of the trade down or is the acceleration that you saw and the Q2 all organic. So how do you think about opportunities for customer acquisition in this environment and essentially locking them into your loyalty program to make sure that they stay with you? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. I like our opportunity here in this sort of economic environment. Our prepared foods business really does represent A tremendous value for consumers. You can get a whole pie and two sides for far less money Then it would cost to take the family out to a QSR as an example. And so we have the opportunity to attract new guests To our stores based on the fact that it's just at our normal pricing, it's a strong value.

Speaker 2

And then again, Like I said, what we're starting to see on the with our lower income consumers is that they're making a choice about what food to buy and they're gravitating more towards prepared foods as opposed to packaged foods because the prepared foods offer But incremental value there. So we see the ability to grow that business on both sides, which is great for us because it's the highest margin category that we operate.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our final question. Our final question comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So could you dig in a little on some of the ingredient cost tailwinds in Prepared Foods? And what are your expectations for the second half of the year for ingredient cost? Looks like you're tracking at the top end of your guidance range for inside margin and you made some adjustments to guidance, but you didn't adjust that one.

Speaker 11

So should we assume that margin may come in a little in Tuition? Just anything there on what looks like maybe a conservative second half guide on the Inside Margin? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, John. Good morning. This is Steve. I'll start with that.

Speaker 3

Specific cheese is let's start with cheese. That's obviously the biggest Simba cost the one that gets the most attention. We're about 80%, eight-zero percent hedged We're locked, I should say, for the second half of the year on cheese costs. And so, I would expect that to be Modestly favorable at current spot prices year over year, similar to what it was in the 2nd quarter, so somewhere between 5% 10% Favorable based on the current strip for Cheese for the rest of the year. Most of the other input costs on The prepared food business are not contractual, a lot of commodities with proteins, etcetera.

Speaker 3

And so right now, We don't have a reason to believe that protein cost experience for the second half will be significantly different than what it was in the first half, which is just a modest slow improvement on a year over year basis. I think that would be Somewhat similar, you've seen that really in the LIFO charge experience we've had in the first half of the year, Specifically in Prepared Food, right, we still have LIFO expense, but we have less year over year and That's really just a function broadly of what kind of inflation pressure we're having in that business.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you. And then my next question is on the buyback guide, dollars 100,000,000 on the year. You used the word But putting out a guide for the year, I think, suggests that maybe it's becoming a little more entrenched maybe in your capital allocation framework. Can you just talk about how we should think about the buyback as part of the framework going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. Listen, I think your point is a point well taken. We obviously have not been active in share repurchase for the last couple of years. We tried to message to folks at the Investor Day that As the company grows and continues to generate more operating cash flow and that cash flow outstrips in the short term, Our ability to allocate it back into growth, which is always going to be the first stop on the bus for us if we can grow EBITDA and ROIC, Do it accretively, that's where we'll put the money. It just gives us more flexibility around capital allocation.

Speaker 3

And so as the leverage level Continues to slowly tick down. I'm not sure that necessarily serves us well, letting that continue to get lower. It's driving up the cost of capital. We've got ample flexibility now and so share repurchase just becomes We've been pretty disciplined on how we pay the dividend around 15% to 20% payout ratio And trying to match EBITDA growth over the medium term, we're not going to walk away from that. We've raised the dividend, I think, for 24 years in a row at this point, and so we're proud of that.

Speaker 3

But We simply have more available cash and share repurchase feels like an appropriate Part of the capital allocation when you put all of the pieces of the balance sheet and just cash flow generation together. And so It's not going to be nearly as significant as what we're reinvesting into growth. I would not want to set that expectation, but the reality is, I do think it has a part to play more so than it has over the last couple of years.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darren Rebelez for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

All right. Thank you and thanks for taking the time today to join us on Call, before we sign off, I want to thank our team members for all their hard work this quarter and wish everyone a happy holiday season and a new year.

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Earnings Conference Call
Casey's General Stores Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00