BP Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 7, 2023

There are 22 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's presentation. This morning, we're going to cover BP's 4th quarter and full year 'twenty two results. We'll also provide an update on strategic progress. Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our usual cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we'll make forward looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations.

Operator

Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to the factors we note on this slide and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website. On that, let me now hand over to Bernard.

Speaker 1

Well, thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. It's great To have those of you on the call join us, and obviously it's great to see people here in London this morning. Before we begin, after yesterday's terrible earthquakes in Turkiye and Syria, our thoughts Obviously go out to colleagues and everyone with friends and family in the region. All our colleagues are accounted for and we have a team set up to support them. But of course many, many more people were affected.

Speaker 1

1,000 of people have died. And we'll do what we can to support. There'll be operational matters to attend to in time, but in our in the first instance, our focus is obviously on People. I'm here today with Murray, who is standing ready to take over here in a few minutes, poised. And I'll be joined in a bit for Q and A by Carl Howell, Gordon Burrell, Emma Delaney and Anja Dotzenrath.

Speaker 1

The rest of the BP leadership team are also around Julia, Kierke, Kerry Dreibera, Eric Knitzer, Leanne Russell. So you'll get a chance to meet them as well. 3 years ago, we announced a Significant strategic change for BP pivoting from at that time 110 year history of being An international oil company or IOC to becoming an integrated energy company or IEC. I'm personally in awe of what the BP team has delivered since then And all during the most volatile and the most uncertain times that many of us I think have ever experienced. When we updated the market this time last year, I said to you all that our direction was set, our change was done, And we were now 100% focused on delivery.

Speaker 1

And that is exactly what we have been doing. With that backdrop, there are 3 things that you'll hear from us today. The first and important is that BP is performing. Our businesses are running well. Our costs are being controlled.

Speaker 1

We are reducing emissions. We are growing value. We feel and believe our strategy is working And we are more confident than ever that what we laid out in 2020 as a strategy is the right one. And as we've said and you're bored of it consistently that we are performing while we are transforming. 2nd, we are leaning further into our strategy.

Speaker 1

We're planning to invest more into our transition growth engines And not or and at the same time investing more into today's oil and gas system, a plan that we expect will materially Increase EBITDA by 25% and by 2,030. And 3rd, crucially, We are delivering for shareholders. In 2022, we have grown distributions through an increase in our resilient dividend And delivery of a material share buyback program. So let's start it off if it's okay with a little video That shows it's 2 to 3 minutes, so it won't be too long. That shows some of the delivery by the team at BP over the last 3 years.

Speaker 1

So we're going to play the video. This is a big moment in BP's history. Our strategy at its core speaks to performing while Transforming.

Speaker 2

This is really a moment where governments, investors and companies can come together to try and shape the future of tomorrow.

Speaker 3

The strategy that they've Payton is absolutely right. It's important that the company evolves as society evolves.

Speaker 1

Without safety, nothing else we do is possible. Safety comes first and Always will. We are reinventing BP to be leaner. We've strengthened the balance sheet. We're building Partnerships where we can create more together than we can on our own.

Speaker 1

Year 1, we set direction. Year 2, we restructured. Now it's about one thing, Delivery.

Speaker 4

We believe that our strategy and financial frame will deliver a compelling investor Proposition.

Speaker 1

By 2025, we will invest over 40%

Speaker 4

We have real momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company, and we remain focused on delivering long term value for

Speaker 1

We will continue to invest in today's energy system and not or we are investing to So thanks for it's as much for our own teams that we'll be showing them later today as anything else. But I might be a bit biased. I am probably a bit biased, but I think that's pretty brilliant. And I'm really proud of the people at BP For their part in delivering that. Turning now to focus on delivery in 2022.

Speaker 1

1st, Reflecting, as we said in the video, on safety. At BP, safety comes, 1st, it's core to the way that we live our purpose. We have seen our combined Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events continue to improve in 2022 compared to 2021. However, we do know from incidents during the year that there's always more that we can and must do. And we will do that.

Speaker 1

And safety remains and is foundational obviously to everything that we do. Turning secondly to our businesses, where our focus on operational reliability and cost performance underpinned strong financial delivery. Adjusted EBITDA for 2022 was €60,700,000,000 Operating cash flow was €40,900,000,000 including a working capital build of £6,900,000,000 Net debt reduced for the 11th quarter in a row to reach £21,400,000,000 the lowest level in almost a decade. And return on average capital employed was 30.5%. And third, we delivered for shareholders, Executing against our clear, consistent and disciplined financial framework and delivering what we believe are sector leading distributions.

Speaker 1

Today, we have announced a 10% increase in our dividend per ordinary share for the 4th quarter, underpinned by our strong underlying performance and supported by our plans to lean into our strategy and deliver further growth in EBITDA. Including this increase, our dividend per ordinary share for the Q4 is 21% higher than a year ago and very importantly, fully accommodated within our resilient $40 per barrel balance point. And since commencing the share buyback program in 2021, We have reduced our issued share capital by 11%. I'll say more about our plans to lean further into our strategy in a moment. But let me first hand over to Murray to run through our results in more detail.

Speaker 1

Murray?

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks, Bernard, and good morning, everyone. It's so nice to see you in the room and line. As usual, I'll start with the macro environment. During the Q4, Brent fell by 12% relative to the 3rd quarter to average $89 per barrel.

Speaker 4

This reflected increased uncertainty over the economic outlook and relatively high production from Russia and OPEC. In the Q1, we expect prices to remain supported by recovering Chinese demand, ongoing uncertainty around the level of Russian exports and low inventory levels. Turning to natural gas. During the Q4, We saw a sharp decline in both spot and futures prices. The quarter average TTF price fell by 51% As a warm start to winter allowed Europe to maintain inventory levels.

Speaker 4

In the U. S, Henry Hub declined as storage levels recovered towards seasonal norms. The outlook for the Q1 remains dependent on weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the pace of Chinese demand recovery. Moving to refining. Consistent with trends and seasonal demand, global margins decreased modestly to average 32.20 per barrel during the quarter.

Speaker 4

We expect industry refining margins to remain elevated in the Q1 due to sanctioning of Russian crude and product. Moving to our long term price assumptions. Last week, we presented the BP 2023 Energy outlook. And in line with our annual cycle, we reviewed our price assumptions used for investment appraisal and accounting. To summarize, the continuing impact of the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy shortages, Together with changes in the structure of energy markets post COVID means we now expect oil and gas prices and refining margins to remain higher throughout much of this decade.

Speaker 4

Further out, we continue to expect prices to fall as the energy transition gathers pace. The charts on this slide show our old and new assumptions for Brent Henry Hub and the refining marker margin. In addition, reflecting current market conditions, we've raised our international gas price assumptions through the gas price assumptions through the middle of the decade. In the second half of the decade, we assume that prices return towards historical levels. These changes have no impact on our cash balance point, a $40 Brent, dollars 11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub.

Speaker 4

Turning to results. In the 4th quarter, we reported a profit of $10,800,000,000 allowing for post Tax adjusting items of CAD 7,100,000,000 and an inventory holding loss of CAD 1,100,000,000 our underlying replacement cost profit was CAD 4,800,000,000 compared to $8,200,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. Turning to business group performance compared to the 3rd quarter. In Gas and Low Carbon Energy, the results reflects a below average gas marketing and trading performance compared to an exceptional result in the 3rd quarter, Lower gas realizations and lower production. In oil P and O production and operations, the result reflects lower liquids and gas realizations.

Speaker 4

And in customers and products, the products result reflects a higher level of turnaround and maintenance activity. The customers result reflects lower marketing margins and seasonably lower volumes. In the Q4, our underlying effective tax rate was 40%, bringing the rate for the full year to 34%. And finally, our trading business had an exceptional year and with consistent strong delivery has now contributed an average uplift of 4% to Groupe Parachie over the past 3 years. Moving to cash flow.

Speaker 4

Operating cash flow was 13 point $6,000,000,000 in the 4th quarter. This included a working capital release of $4,200,000,000 after adjusting for inventory holding losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items. Capital expenditure was $7,400,000,000 in the 4th quarter and $16,300,000,000 for the full year. For the Q4, inorganic expenditure was €3,500,000,000 including €3,000,000,000 for RK Energy, net of adjustments and $500,000,000 for the earlier than expected completion of the acquisition of ADF Energy Services. During the quarter BP repurchased $3,200,000,000 of shares.

Speaker 4

Reflecting strong cash generation, net debt fell for the 11th consecutive quarter to reach $21,400,000,000 And with surplus cash flow of €5,100,000,000 in the quarter, BP intends to execute a further €2,750,000,000 buyback prior to announcing Q1 2023 results. Turning to our disciplined financial frame. Our resilient dividend remains our first priority. As Bernard outlined, for the Q4, we have announced an increase in the dividend to CAD0.0661 per ordinary share. This is underpinned by strong underlying performance and supported by the confidence we have in delivering further growth in EBITDA as a result of our updated investment plans.

Speaker 4

2nd, our strong investment grade credit rating. During 2022, we reduced net debt by a further $9,200,000,000 3rd, disciplined investment allocation. Capital expenditure for the year was CAD 16,300,000,000 slightly higher than expected due to the phasing of our acquisition of EDF Energy Services. And finally, share buybacks, where in 2022, we announced $2,750,000,000 of buybacks from surplus cash flow. I'll now hand back to Bernard.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Murray, and thanks for your leadership over the last few years. Fantastic. So let me turn then if I may to the update on our strategy. The world's in a very different place today compared to when we began this journey just 3 years ago. The challenges and volatility we have seen make it clear, maybe Clearer than ever that the world wants and needs a better and a more balanced energy system, One that can deliver more secure, more affordable as well as lower carbon energy solutions, the so called energy Trilemma, to deliver that better energy system, action is needed.

Speaker 1

1, to accelerate the energy transition and 2, ensure an orderly transition from today's predominantly hydrocarbon based energy system with the emphasis being on orderly to maintain ongoing energy security and affordability. This means both increased investment in lower carbon solutions That can help society decarbonize faster and not or something you'll hear me say a lot and Not or at the same time, continued investment in hydrocarbons to keep energy flowing with energy security and affordability at a premium. At the same time, our track record of delivery over the last three years has given us increased confidence in the strategy that we laid out. An integrated energy company is, we believe, uniquely set up to help deliver energy security and energy affordability today as well as to help accelerate the energy transition. And crucially, we believe we can generate growth and attractive returns in doing so.

Speaker 1

And it is for these reasons that we see the opportunity to lean further in to our strategy and that is what I will now describe. We remain focused on transforming to an integrated energy company. Our 3 pillar strategy, which includes our 5 transition growth engines, is unchanged, as is the fact that the power of integration underpins and connects it all. So what does leaning in look like? Well, first, we plan to invest up to $8,000,000,000 more this decade in our Transition Growth Engines.

Speaker 1

On average, dollars 1,000,000,000 more each year, investing more into higher return bioenergy And convenience in EV charging where we have established businesses, strong capabilities and a proven track record. Alongside this, we are focusing our Hydrogen and Renewables and Power strategy. Anja Dotzenwerp here in the front row, who I introduced earlier. Anja joined us last year and has brought real clarity to that strategy, while at the same time building our organizational capability and a pipeline of value accretive growth options. And I will come back to this shortly.

Speaker 1

2nd, we plan to invest up to $8,000,000,000 more This decade, on average, about $1,000,000,000 more each year in today's energy system, which depends on oil and gas. Targeting shorter cycle, fast payback oil and gas projects and investing in certain oil and gas assets that we now expect to retain for longer. These are investments that we can deliver quickly over the next few years with minimal new infrastructure and that capture any price upside in the near to medium term. As we do both of these, we expect to materially accelerate growth in EBITDA through 2,030. In February last year, we laid out plans to generate group EBITDA between $39,000,000,000 $46,000,000,000 in 2,030 at $60 real in 2020 terms.

Speaker 1

With the plan we're announcing today, we now expect to deliver around $3,000,000,000 more EBITDA in 2020 rising to an aim of CAD5 1,000,000,000 to CAD6 1,000,000,000 more in 2,030. We expect our additional investment in Transition Growth Engines to contribute around $1,000,000,000 in EBITDA in 2025 and we aim for around $2,000,000,000 in 2,030. We expect our additional oil and gas investment to contribute around CAD 2,000,000,000 additional EBITDA in 2025, And we aim for around $3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 in 2,030. And as Murray previously mentioned, we have raised our price assumptions. Taken together, we now aim to generate group EBITDA of around of between $51,000,000,000 $56,000,000,000 in 2,030.

Speaker 1

Turning to some more detail on our plans for our transition growth engines. We expect to invest around 50% of our CapEx in 2,030 in these five engines. This includes both organic and inorganic investments. We will continue to allocate capital to transition opportunities with discipline, applying our balanced investment criteria and investing where we can meet our return hurdle rates. We expect this investment to accelerate earnings growth from our transition growth engines, Increasing EBITDA to $3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 in 2025 and $10,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 in 2,030, up from greater than $10,000,000,000 that we announced previously.

Speaker 1

We continue to expect to deliver returns in bioenergy, greater than 15% returns in convenience and EV charging combined. We also expect double digit returns in hydrogen and 6% to 8% unlevered returns in renewables. Now taking each transition growth engine then in turn. In Bioenergy, we are deepening our investment And now expect to deliver around $2,000,000,000 EBITDA in 2025 and aim to deliver more than $4,000,000,000 in 2,030. We have established global biogas and biofuels businesses that are positioned in an increasingly supportive environment of rapidly growing demand with attractive fiscal incentives.

Speaker 1

And our trading capabilities enable us to integrate supply volumes to capture enhanced value. We plan to increase biogas supply volumes by around 6x by 2,030 to around 70,000 barrels per day We completed the acquisition of Arkea in December and this is a real game changer for us, rapidly advancing our access to feedstock and scaling our upstream participation in the biogas value chain, which is a distinct source of competitive advantage. We're now focused on integrating Arkea into BP and building out the significant development pipeline. We have also identified opportunities to get renewable natural gas projects online faster, and we are looking at ways to improve landfill gas recovery. This is a business that we are very excited about and one that we believe can deliver a significant value faster than what we had thought.

Speaker 1

In biofuels, we aim to materially grow biofuel production volumes to around 100,000 barrels a day by 2,030. Focused on sustainable aviation fuel or SAF where we aim to be a sector leader. We already produce more than 7,000 barrels per day of biofuels through Co processing and we aim to triple this by 2,030. We also plan to deliver 5 biofuel projects focused on SAF at our Kwinana, Rotterdam, Castillon, Lingan and Cherry Point facilities. We expect these projects to produce around 50,000 barrels a day by 2,030.

Speaker 1

And the BP Bune Bioenergia joint venture in Brazil, one of the largest bioethanol producers in Brazil, aims to produce around 30,000 barrels per day by 2,030 net to BP. In Convenience and EV charging, we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than €1,500,000,000 in 2025, and we aim to deliver more than €4,000,000,000 in 2030. We're confident in delivering our strategy. It remains unchanged, and we have, I would say, even deeper conviction in it. 1st, in the growing convenience sector, our combination of local strategic partnerships and global reach enables us to deliver leading offers for our customers.

Speaker 1

2nd, we have a proven track record of delivering growth, and we have continued to grow convenience gross margin despite a challenging environment. 3rd, EV charging is moving at pace, and we see significant value through our focus on fast charging. With customers using our rapid and ultrafast charging points significantly more than the slower ones. And 4th, Major corporations are increasingly demanding decarbonization solutions, driving strong momentum in the Fleets business. We're excited about bringing our capabilities and our reach and convenience together with EV charging, enabling us over time to provide Customer focused, lower carbon transport solutions and our confidence is underpinned by strong strategic momentum in 2022.

Speaker 1

In Convenience, we now have 2,400 strategic convenience sites with 250 added in 2022. We grew our highly profitable loyalty customer base by more than 5% versus 'twenty one, and we are particularly excited about our progress in the United States. For example, Thornton's has integrated well and delivered a record convenience gross margin in 2022. In EV charging, we now have 22,000 charge points and almost all charge points that we roll out now are rapid or ultrafast. We sold 2.5x more electrons year on year, supported by increasing power utilization, which is now approaching double digits.

Speaker 1

And in fleets, we're building scale, recently announcing our nationwide collaboration plans with Hertz in the U. S. Moving to Hydrogen and Renewables and Power. This is about establishing this decade the foundations of a material business for the following decades to come. We expect to invest up to $30,000,000,000 by 2,030, while remaining flexible in our capital allocation as markets evolve and with a focus on returns.

Speaker 1

Through this, we aim to deliver EBITDA of $2,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 by 2,030, Ramping up thereafter in the 2030s and beyond. In Hydrogen, our ambition is to build a leading position globally. While the market is at an early stage of development, we see customer demand growing rapidly And regulatory support gaining momentum as evidenced by the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. We plan to use our refineries as demand anchors for hydrogen and to scale these up into regional hubs. These hubs will then provide low carbon energy solutions for customers, particularly in hard to abate sectors such as steel.

Speaker 1

In parallel, as markets evolve, we expect to invest to build global export hubs for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives. These are in advantaged geographies where we have an established presence. Across all of these focus areas, we will leverage again our distinctive trading and shipping capabilities. By 2,030, we aim to produce between 500,000 tonnes per annum of primarily green hydrogen, while selectively pursuing blue hydrogen opportunities where there is regulatory support and CCS access. Turning to Renewables and Power.

Speaker 1

Here we are focusing our investment in Renewables on opportunities where we can create integration value and enhance returns. We aim to participate in 2 ways. 1st, focused investment to build out a renewables portfolio in service of Green hydrogen, green and e fuels, EV charging and power trading, including low carbon flexible generation. As part of this, we are building a global position in offshore wind enabled by our capabilities in large scale complex offshore projects. 2nd, we continue to progress the solar development and cell model with LightSource BP, which is self funding and capable of delivering renewable power rapidly at scale.

Speaker 1

Taken together, we remain on track to deliver our 50 gigawatts Net developed to FID AIM by 2,030. Of this, we aim to have around 10 gigawatts net installed capacity, largely operated in offshore wind, solar and onshore wind. We also expect to have assets under construction and for LightSource BP to contribute materially. And finally, we have brought power trading into the renewables growth engine. This reflects our focus on creating value Through integration across our own portfolio as well as the opportunity to help customers decarbonize their power needs as grids and our own Supply decarbonizes.

Speaker 1

And we're in action. Looking back over the past 12 months, we have made significant progress in hydrogen and renewables. We now have a pipeline of hydrogen projects in concept development totaling 1,800,000 tonnes per annum net to BP, and we would expect to double that by the end of this year. We're also progressing customer acquisition and have an un risked customer hopper of around 10,000,000 tonnes per annum. Our Renewables pipeline increased by 14 gigawatts in 2022 to 37 gigawatts through offshore wind, LightSource BP and Hydrogen Linked Renewables in Australia.

Speaker 1

As this slide shows, our portfolio is global. It's focused in 4 regions with cost advantaged renewable resources, policy or government support where we have an established presence And where we can leverage again our distinctive trading and shipping and integration capabilities. To summarize, we are excited about the portfolio we are building. We have distinctive capabilities to succeed, we believe, and we see huge opportunity to enhance returns by integrating across renewables, Hydrogen, efuels and emobility. Turning now to Our Oil, Gas and Refining portfolio.

Speaker 1

Let me start with where our oil and gas production is today. It is around 40% lower versus 2019, including the decision by BP's Board to exit Russia. We remain actively engaged in marketing our Rosneft shareholding, and we will update the market as appropriate. But as you have heard me say before and Murray, our oil and gas strategy is about value, not only volume. And our focus remains And cash flow, reducing emissions and is underpinned by a deep and high quality resource base that allows us to choose the best investments.

Speaker 1

Our hopper of resource options enables us to allocate more capital, particularly to short cycle opportunities to maximize value, including investing more into BPX and more into the Gulf of Mexico. Having grown production in 2022, we plan to grow underlying Production to 2025 adding around 200,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of high margin production from 9 major project startups. By continuing to manage base decline to between 3% 5%, by increasing BPX production by 30% to 40 percent and retaining some assets for longer than previously planned. And our resource base has the potential to sustain underlying production broadly flat to 2,030 relative to 2022. A great example is in the Gulf of Mexico, where we expect production to increase to around 400,000 barrels a day by the middle of the decade and average 350,000 barrels per day through the end of the decade.

Speaker 1

In the second half of the decade, we also have options to progress new hub opportunities, including in offshore Canada, in Brazil, in Mauritania and Senegal, in Australia, the Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia. We also remain focused on high grading our portfolio and aim to divest around 200,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent of lower margin assets by 2,030, less than previously assumed given the strong progress we have made improving operational reliability and commerciality across our portfolio over the past few years. As a result, our 2,030 production aim is now around 2,000,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent after divestments. And to maximize value, We intend to maintain investment discipline with hurdle rates of 15% to 20% at CAD60 per barrel, Maintain a balanced portfolio with a broadly equal mix across oil and gas. Drive capital productivity through Strong execution capability across our subsurface wells and projects organization and sustained cost efficiency and reliability improvements in our operations.

Speaker 1

Our 2022 performance shows our focus on this, delivering our lowest unit production cost since 2,006 and our highest plant reliability on record. Turning to Refining. 3 things. 1st, Through our business improvement plans, we are continuing to drive greater competitiveness and value from our refineries. We are focused on improving process safety and operational emissions and delivering portfolio performance.

Speaker 1

2nd, as I mentioned earlier, our refineries are a foundation for 2 transition growth engines, namely bioenergy, specifically biofuels And hydrogen. We plan to grow biofuel co processing production and deliver 5 projects focused on sustainable aviation fuel. Our existing refining hydrogen demand will be an anchor to build scale through both green and blue hydrogen projects. And third, we will continue to invest to digitize and modernize the systems and back office of our refining business as we have in the Upstream over the past decade. This is expected to drive higher reliability, more efficient work and eliminate substantial waste in the system.

Speaker 1

The combination of an increasingly competitive refining portfolio and the opportunities we see to convert or consolidate refineries To deliver our biofuels and hydrogen strategies means that we plan to retain our current refining footprint and throughput at around current levels. So what does this mean in terms of our pathway to net 0? In short, our destination is unchanged with a triple net 0 ambition across operations, production and sales by 2,050 or sooner. Since we laid out our aims in 2020, we have enhanced Our net zero ambition. We have increased aim 1 to 50% in 2,030.

Speaker 1

We have increased aim 3 To 15% to 20% in 2,030 and net 0 by 2,050 as well as expanding the scope of AIM3 to include physically traded energy products. As we lean further into our strategy, we have updated our goals for AM5, now aligned with our transition growth engines for 2025 and 2030. We expect to invest more than 40% Our CAD6 billion to CAD8 billion of our capital expenditure in transition growth engines in 2025, up from 3% in 2019 and around 50% in 2,030 or about CAD7 billion to CAD9 billion. We have updated our pathway for AIM-two, Our net zero production aim, we are now targeting 10% to 15% reduction by 2025 and aiming for 20% to 30% reduction by 2,030. We continue to believe that our ambition and aims taken together are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Speaker 1

In summary, our transformation is gaining momentum, some of the key elements of which are on this slide. We're turning planning into delivery, turning data on PowerPoints into shovels In the ground, being the good farmer that I am. And that's what performing while transforming is all about. It's what people want To see they want to see delivery, delivery, delivery. We're making strong progress towards delivering our 2025 targets And our 2,030 aims and we're leaning in.

Speaker 1

And with that, importantly, Murray will now take you through our financial framework That underpins this. Murray?

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks, Bernard. Shovel is not PowerPoints. That one will live for a while, won't it?

Speaker 1

It's a good one.

Speaker 4

It's a good one. It's a good one. It's a good one.

Speaker 5

It's a good

Speaker 4

As you've heard, we see the potential to advance the delivery of our strategy and create additional value by investing an average up to $2,000,000,000 per annum, more than previously planned through 2,030. Compared to our previous plan, we expect to invest more in resilient hydrocarbons in oil and gas and bioenergy. We also expect to invest more in convenience and mobility, inconvenience in EV charging. And we're focusing our capital expenditure in hydrogen and renewables Power, planning to reallocate around $10,000,000,000 across the decade towards bioenergy and convenience and EV charging. In aggregate, we now expect annual capital investment including inorganics to be in the range of $14,000,000,000 to $18,000,000,000 through 2,030.

Speaker 4

For 2023, reflecting our expectation of a supportive price environment, we plan to invest between $16,000,000,000 $18,000,000,000 And we retain significant flexibility in our investment plans. In a lower price environment, we anticipate managing shorter cycle investment, particularly in hydrocarbons to maintain a resilient cash balance point of around $40 per barrel Brent, dollars 11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub. Turning to EBITDA. These changes to our capital investment plans underpin an uplift of €5,000,000,000 to €6,000,000,000 to our 2,030 EBITDA aim. As a result and together with our revised price assumptions, our 2025 EBITDA target increases to $46,000,000,000 to $49,000,000,000 and our 2,030 EBITDA aimed to $51,000,000,000 to $56,000,000,000 And as Bernard outlined, within this, we now expect our transition growth engines to contribute $10,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 of EBITDA in 2,030.

Speaker 4

Our $46,000,000,000 to $49,000,000,000 20.25 EBITDA target is underpinned by the strong and highly visible operational momentum we see ahead of us. In our transition growth engines by 2025, we expect An 80% increase in our biofuel volumes, a 30 and around a 30,000 barrel oil equivalent per day increase in biogas supply, a 25% increase in the number of strategic convenience sites and around a doubling of EV charge points. In oil and gas, by 2025, we expect an incremental 200,000 barrels per day of high margin production, An increase of 30% to 40% in production from BPX Energy and more than a 30% increase in LNG supply to around 25,000,000 tonnes per annum from Coral, Venture, Mauritania Senegal, Tangu and the return of Freeport. And this strong operational momentum is supported by our continuing focus on cost efficiency and digital. Having completed the largest reorganization in our history, we have delivered on our target of $3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 of pre tax cash cost savings By 2023 relative to 2019 around a year ahead of schedule.

Speaker 4

Looking ahead, we are working hard to extend the progress we've made deploying digital and standardization in the upstream to the broader group. This will take time, but we continue to see a substantial opportunity to drive savings, which absorb inflation and provide the space for us to profitably expand our transition growth engines. As we deliver our business We remain focused on the disciplined delivery of our financial frame. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend accommodated within a balance point of $40 per barrel Brent, 11 RMM and 3 Henry Hub, now defined on a point forward basis. We see capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% per annum at $60 per barrel subject to the Board's discretion.

Speaker 4

2nd, maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating. For 2023, we intend to continue to allocate 40% of surplus cash flow to further strengthen the balance sheet and now target further progress within an A grade credit rating. 3rd and 4th, we plan to invest with discipline in our transition growth engines and in our Oil, Gas and Refining businesses. And finally, share buybacks. We are committed to allocating 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow to buybacks and expect a buyback of $4,000,000,000 per annum at around $60 per barrel at the lower end of our capital range and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.

Speaker 4

Taken together, we believe this business plan and financial frame delivers for shareholders today. It offers 1st double digit per share growth. We now expect to deliver an EBITDA per share CAGR of over 12% between 2H19, 1H202025 at $70 per barrel 2021 real. 2nd, competitive returns. We have increased our ROCE target and now expect to achieve over 18% both in 2025 and 2,030 at $70 per barrel 2021 real.

Speaker 4

3rd, debt reduction through our intention to allocate a proportion of surplus cash flow to strengthening our balance sheet. And 4th, compelling shareholder distributions through our resilient and growing dividend and with leverage to higher prices through our share buyback commitment. Let me now hand back to Bernard to conclude today's presentation.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Murray. As we come to a close, at least in the presentation before we go to Q and A, what excites me maybe the most And gives me the confidence in our ability to deliver on our growth plans is what I think is the world class a world class BP Team, we're building capabilities and skills. We're leveraging deep experience within and we're attracting new talent from a broad range of sectors. We're becoming more diverse, making tangible progress on both female and minority representation across our organization.

Speaker 1

Our restructuring and our change is behind us. We only have one focus That's on delivery. And finally, and people ask me about this, our transformation is inspiring our people and others who want to join us. Pride in working for BP is at an all time high, and staff confidence in our future is at the highest point since we started surveying over a decade ago. So let me wrap up.

Speaker 1

First, I hope you will agree That our results show that BP is performing while transforming. 2nd, we have the right strategy. And today we're leaning further in, helping give society the energy it needs and materially growing EBITDA at the same time. And 3rd, crucially, we are delivering for our shareholders, executing against our disciplined financial frame, growing our resilient dividend and delivering a material share buyback program. This all comes together, as you can see on this slide, in what we believe is a compelling investor proposition to grow long term shareholder value.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much for your patience and for listening and for watching the video. Members of the Heem will now join me on stage and we'll be delighted. Guys, come on up, game time. We'll be delighted to take your questions, starting in the room probably, and then we'll go to On the line. So I think everybody knows everybody.

Speaker 1

Emma's here. So we got Anja, Emma, Gordon, Carol and Matt Murray. So let's get going. And we'll start off Here in the room, and we'll start with Lydia. Why don't we start with Lydia, and then we'll start making our way around.

Speaker 1

So Lydia, over to you, please. I'm looking for my notepad.

Speaker 3

Thanks, and good morning, and thank you for the video as well. It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. So Two questions, if I could. The first one is on the change around the upstream production side. Previously, those have been described as low margin barrels.

Speaker 3

Can you just talk us through what's happened to that margin now, why you want to keep them and whether that made you feel uncomfortable with around the scope to or the aim to And then the third one, and it's probably all for on you, Isabelle. Bernard described you as having brought clarity to the strategy in the Renewals part of the business or low carbon part of the business, can you talk through what you found, what you've changed? And then perhaps linked to that, just how you, Carol and Emma all work together In terms of some of that trading business being quite clear. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Fantastic. Great. Lydia, thank you. Gordon, why are you keeping these assets longer?

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you for the question, Lidia. I think over the last couple of years, there's really two things that Apartment just gives us huge confidence to keep these barrels. Number 1 is just the operational improvement. We've improved reliability on our assets.

Speaker 6

We continue to drive down unit costs. We continue to drive Capital productivity in our wells the wells area, we've deployed new technology. Ocean bottom seismic now is being deployed Widely across our portfolio, giving a better view of the barrels that remain. And then finally, I would say commerciality. If you look at what we've done, say, in Azul Energy, We brought together 2 very mature sets of assets with our friends at E and I, brought them together into a company now called Azul that's doing Over 200,000 barrels per day has 3 major projects coming towards it, has huge growth potential actually.

Speaker 6

So London Aker BP and London Energy would be another example of where we've added through commerciality, we've added value. So That gives us lots of confidence that staying inside our portfolio, we can continue to add value to these barrels.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gordon, and well done On the reliability for last year, even better than when I was in charge of the upstream. So but anyway, Anja or Anja, Isabelle,

Speaker 3

back to you.

Speaker 5

Anja is fine. Thanks for the question, Lydia. What I found is, 1st of all, a great foundation to start And I'll give you two examples. Light Source BP, it's a 1,000 colleague organization by now, in motion to deliver gigawatts At lowest cost possible, presence in 19 countries. So a very, very important capability for everything we want to do in hydrogen And also in Emma's business, etcetera, etcetera, because renewables' capability is absolutely key.

Speaker 5

Another example is our Entry in offshore wind, which I give, let's say, the BP team the credit for. So I inherited a great pipeline to build on. And so my focus really in the last 12 months was three things. I mean, being even clearer, what we want to do in low carbon, what to do and what not to do. So where do we want to In hydrogen, how do we want to play in hydrogen?

Speaker 5

And I think Bernard alluded to it. And one important question was also to clarify the role of Renewables MVP's portfolio, and I think we have a very, very clear answer to that. It's all about integration value. It's not about just gigawatts. It is about value.

Speaker 5

And this is a very, I think, unique proposition. The second thing I focused on was building the delivery muscle. We stood up 2 new operating Models organizations focused on hydrogen and on offshore wind, and we are fine tuning as we But up and running, and we brought external talent in. And the 3rd is really growing the pipeline. And I think you've seen the numbers Literally from very, very little to a very material pipeline in hydrogen and a very, very good pipeline in renewables and of course, Developing the projects, maturing the projects and then the steering model behind it because these businesses are distinctively different to oil and gas and that they need a different Steering model.

Speaker 5

So this was what I did in the last 12 months.

Speaker 1

Brilliant. It's fantastic having Anja here. And there was a question about how you and Emma and Karl works Together, Emma, Karl, any one of you want to say how you bring it all together?

Speaker 7

Seamlessly. Seamlessly.

Speaker 1

Good answer. We'll take it as a short answer. Lucas, Thank you, Lydia.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much, Bernard. It's Luca Simon at Exane BNP. A couple as well, if I might. And Perhaps the first ties in with one of Lydia's. So 15% to 20%, it's an obvious allocation question, 15% to 20% return in Hydrocarbons, greater than 15 percent biogas, greater than 15% electrification or EV, 10% or so in hydrogen and 6% to 8% unlevered in Renewable.

Speaker 8

So explain to me or just turn to me that the 6% to 8% In Renewable, in that there are electrons, there are commodity you can buy them in. So why allocate in that direction? That's the first question. And the second is to Murray, and it's just and maybe to Carol, and it's how do we think about The LNG Optimization Trading business in terms of pricing this year. And I asked simply because gas prices globally have clearly come back a long way, But you position a long way forward.

Speaker 8

So when I think about the profit delta that the price would imply for the year, What can you tell me to afford me comfort that what I see on the screen today, TTF, NBP, JKM, Relative to last year is not something I'd necessarily affect. Volume aside, Murray, for The Gas and Power or the Gas and Low Emission Business, hope that was clear.

Speaker 1

Possibly to people who And the market well, which is Carol. So Carol, I'm going to ask you to lead off on that. Murray can add if he wishes to. But Carol, go for it. And Anja will ask you to take The 68% question, please.

Speaker 1

Go ahead, Carol.

Speaker 9

So yes, we have seen, as you said, a reduction in prices since last year. But I think there are also when you look Fundamentals of the market, there's potentially still tightness going forward when you look at growing demand, China coming back in, for example, East unlocking, we did lose a lot of demand through winter, warm winter. That's something that we'll continue to watch going forward. So I think we're looking at the supply demand balances. We're looking at all of the factors.

Speaker 9

They're not all necessarily bearish, I'll just say, on that perspective. And we have a portfolio which we've created around optionality. So that's pricing centers, Demand centers, it's volume, it's flexibility and our job is to monetize that for BP. And I think the team have done a great job of doing that Couple years over multiple market conditions, but I'm sure Marie can give us the right nomenclature for the performance.

Speaker 4

You guys have performed tremendously. Just to add a new word in. Lucas, it's not about high price, low price, it's about volatility. And There's not an awful lot of supply out there right now. So that suggests volatility.

Speaker 4

So we look to Carrol's organization to manage that volatility. And I think there's continue to be well positioned to do that.

Speaker 1

And I think the a lot of the contracts and supply that we're bringing on in the coming years, importantly, were Deals that were signed many, many years ago, not in the last year in the middle of some of the biggest price spikes in history, but many, many years ago. So also a great place as Carole grows from 19 MTPA to 25 by 2025. So Anja, 6% to 8% returns in Renewables and Power. Why should we be an adviser in an attractive business for BP?

Speaker 5

And I would slightly disagree, if I may, to your statement. There's an abundance of green electrons around the world. Actually, that's not the case. We invest We allocate capital to own renewable assets if we believe this is a critical control point. So if you think about projects like RAA, for example, in Australia, This is largely off grid renewables, and it's 70% of the total CapEx of the project.

Speaker 5

So we need a leading edge capability To deliver the green electrons at the lowest cost of energy. This is absolutely crucial for the success of this business. If you think moving to Europe, if you think about how to scale a hydrogen business in Europe, it is all about scaling offshore wind because this is The only scalable technology in Europe which can deliver gigawatts of, let's say, green electricity in service of green hydrogen production. This is why we believe we need to play in offshore wind because there are regions around the world where this is the only scalable technology. And I think this is how we think about it.

Speaker 5

If there is if there are liquid markets, if there's an abundance of green electrons, and we can buy them in a way cheaply, Competitively, we will not deploy capital in renewables. But we believe definitely for this decade to come, we have to because it is absolutely crucial.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Anja. Thank you, Karl. OZ? Then we'll keep going.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. Just back on the returning average capital employed numbers. So I think 2020, we said to 2% was delivered over the last 20 years. The last 3 years, we've added 4%. As we look out to that 18% In 2025 and beyond, which is a big number, how much is the trading contribution in that place?

Speaker 10

And I'd love just to tie that perhaps, Carol, back to Anja and say, Do you believe that trading electrons, you can trade and add value here? I think coming from your old company And others, utilities tend to say it's not quite possible. So I'd love you to square that circle, please. And then secondly, sorry, you're Deepening or higher conviction on EV convenience to Emma. But can you help us a little bit more on pricing across Fleets, Hertz, Scottish Police Force, Uber London, I mean, how much of that is helping get to 15% returns in that business and even some of the trucking that you're doing in Germany.

Speaker 10

Is there an array of pricing here that's helping? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Oswald. Let's start off. Murray, 18%. How much includes trading? On your trading electrons, Do we make money?

Speaker 1

And Carol, if she wants to add together both of you guys and Emma. So Murray?

Speaker 4

Yes. I don't think I'll guide on what's trading as a component of the percent, Oz, that would be a little bit tricky for Carole moving forward. But I will say that Carole's had a stunning track record over the last 3 years, 4% on average ROCE for the group. So you can calculate the numbers now, I'm sure. And Carol has a growing portfolio ahead of her with Arkea and Biogas, with LNG expanding.

Speaker 4

And I think the profitability of trading will really depend on a few things. 1st, continuing volatility. Does continuing volatility happen as per Lucas' question? 2nd, can we continue to manage gross margin competition because it's a competitive space? And can we continue to do a good job?

Speaker 4

So far so good. And I think I'd put my confidence in Carol and her team. And then we have growing LNG. So as Lucas says, it's volume, not price, But again, it's volatility. So I think I'm not going to guide on it, but certainly we have a fabulous capability here in place.

Speaker 4

And I'm confident Carol And our organization will do just fine.

Speaker 1

Thank you. See if Anja and Carole will agree on Trading Electrons. Who wants to do

Speaker 5

that one? Want to kick it off?

Speaker 9

So I think so one of the questions previously was around integration, and we do work very closely across each other. We're looking at power value chain. Seamlessly, fabulously seamlessly. So we think about routes to market. We think about how we want to lock positions in.

Speaker 9

We think about whether it's corporate, industrial, self supply. We take trading positions around that. We look at greening of products. And We won't be giving numbers, but we did have a strong power trading delivery last year. And that is because we've built up this position Across assets, corporates, merchant and what we call virtual strategies.

Speaker 9

That's in the U. S. We're building that in the U. K. And Europe And we're also supporting around the Australian Renewable Energy Hub.

Speaker 5

Anything to add? Perfect answer as always.

Speaker 1

What's there to add? Murray, I like this idea of bringing these guys up on stage. I think we should

Speaker 4

Makes it easier for you and I.

Speaker 1

Yes, it does totally. Brilliant. And deepening EVs, Emma, Or deepening where are the returns coming from pricing and so on?

Speaker 7

Yes, great. Thanks for the question. So in our EV business, as you know, we have a very focused strategy. We're focused on fleets and we're focused on fast charging on the go. And just to give you a sense of the balance of that, we probably expect about 70% today as we look at our business, 70 To come from on the go fast charging, 30% from fleets.

Speaker 7

And we've really built capability over the last number of years now, more than 500 people really working on deploying into both of those core focus segments. And It's working. So power energy sales up 2.5x, utilization is up in every market where we operate. And it's clear that on the fast charging side, customers in the U. K, where you have a choice between fast and slow, customers choose fast 5 times more frequently than slow.

Speaker 7

So we're really seeing a play into this fast charging on the go. We're investing in this business today, of course, and it'll turn earnings Positive, some chunky earnings coming from that by 2025. So really looking forward to that. Fleets, in particular, what I like about Fleets is We have a really sizable fleet business today, 170,000 customers around the world. Those customers and corporates have made commitments to decarbonize.

Speaker 7

And the vectors, energy vectors they need to decarbonize will be multitude of energy vectors, all the way from biofuels, which is near term decarbonization, Through EV charging and EV charging in trucks, who would have thought 5 years ago that you'd have a 19 ton truck that can be run on electricity. And we're playing into that market with some specific investments, which we've made in Germany, where the truck EV trucks are already taking off. So I think fleets for us really offer an opportunity to play into a number of our areas, and we're really looking forward to seeing what this business brings in the next couple of years.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Emma. Let's go to Irene. And then after that, guys, we'll go to a couple of questions online. So, Irene?

Speaker 11

Thank you. Irene Himona, Societe Generale. My first question on the framework And congratulations on the numbers, first of all. And you have upgraded EBITDA targets very materially, partly because of The increase to your brand from 60% to 70%. But of course, you continue to guide on a 4% dividend increase based on $60 For consistency, how should we think around that 4%?

Speaker 11

What does it grow to in your new framework of $70 please? And my second question, back to convenience and mobility. Obviously, we focused on EV charging. Can you Give us some insight on the conventional part of that business. So for example, is Castrol Lubricants finally Delivering the longer weighted potential that we think it has.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Great. Irene, thank you. Murray, we'll kick off with you and then we'll go to Emma On the non EV charging part of the business?

Speaker 4

Yes. For consistency, we stuck with guidance at $60 Two guidance points, dollars 4,000,000,000 of buybacks at $60,000,000 and the capacity to grow the dividend at 4% per annum at $60,000,000 That's what we've chosen to do. If you'd like to figure out what it looks like at $70 we've got our rules of thumb. They work pretty well. They have worked pretty well over the past 3 years.

Speaker 4

So I'd just use the rules of thumb to Guide you towards $70 but I'm not giving specific guidance at different price decks. Too many things moving around to do that. So we'll just stick with our guidance at 60

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Marie. And Emma?

Speaker 7

Yes. Thanks, Irene. As I look at the fuels and Castrol Part of the business, so non EV, non convenience part of the business for 2022. A number of headwinds there that we've been working against, so particularly ForEx cost inflation, we saw during 2022. Nonetheless, some really bright spots.

Speaker 7

So Aviation record year. Americas did really well. But nonetheless, some of the volume numbers in 2022 are still 8% behind COVID. I think plenty of recovery still to come in the base there, and we're seeing some of that we've seen some of that recovery in some of the businesses, some of the regions come And I'll just point out convenience, which is inextricably linked actually to our fuels retail business because most of our convenience today exists on our existing retail network And some stellar performance there despite tricky trading conditions. So 9% gross margin increase over the last 3 years.

Speaker 7

And particularly in the Americas

Speaker 4

Per

Speaker 7

annum, yes. And particularly in the Americas, if I look at AMPM, 12 years of sales growth in that franchise, Thornton's 20% growth in Food For Now, which is a category high margin category. And Even in the U. K, increased sales. In Germany, we've been rolling out a partnership called Rava to go.

Speaker 7

We see sales there, 1.5x sales in the competitor sites. So I think a lot in the convenience side, which is inextricably linked to the fuel, still some recovery to come actually, which is all to play for as we really recover out of COVID. You mentioned Castrol. I think Castrol has seen, particularly in Castrol Business, unprecedented headwinds over the last 3 years. Base oil has affected them, in particular, additive shortages And ForEx, as I mentioned earlier.

Speaker 7

But nonetheless and we're not yet where we need to be and where we want to be in Castrol. But we do have a new CEO in place in Castrol And a clear plan to get after Castrol's recovery.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you very much, Emma. Let's go to the line and we'll go to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs, and then we'll go to Paul Scheng at Scotiabank. So Michele?

Speaker 12

Two questions, if I may. The first one on LNG. You have one of the best growths in the industry in terms of new supply coming on in 2023 2024. You took a major hedging position in Q3, which looking back looks very well timed. I was wondering if You could give us an idea of how much of the extra LNG supply has actually been locked in, in terms of pricing for the next 2 years.

Speaker 12

And related to that, you had a SEK 7,000,000,000 working capital build because of that in Q3. I was wondering how much Of that actually unwound already in Q4 and how much is still to be expected for the next 2 years? And then if I can have a second question, We had the major new ESG disclosure coming through in Europe this year, which is the EU green taxonomy. I was just wondering, out of what you call transition growth engines, which accounts for 25%, 30% of your CapEx now going

Speaker 4

to 50% by 2,030, how

Speaker 12

much of that would you say is taxonomy? 30, how much of that would you say is taxonomy aligned? Because I think that's going to be a major focus Out of ESG Investors in Europe this year. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Michele, thank you. Murray, working capital buildrelease. Carol, how much have you hedged and sold forward, all of that good stuff? And I'm going to ask Julia to comment on the taxonomy. We'll get her a microphone in the room.

Speaker 1

So Murray?

Speaker 4

Yes. So if you go back to 3Q guidance, what we told you is that we expected $7,000,000,000 of working capital release From the LNG book as cargoes were delivered starting in 3Q 2023 heavily weighted into 2024. That's what we talked about last quarter. This quarter, we've had a €4,000,000,000 release in working capital. Some of that did come from that LNG book given the size of the decrease.

Speaker 4

And so we had about €2,000,000,000 of that release in the quarter of our €4,000,000,000 release. So as you look out to Q3 2023 through the Q2 of 2024, We'd expect to see around $5,000,000,000 of release as those cargoes get delivered. We don't think it's tremendously price sensitive. But when you have a 50% fall on LNG, a lot happens with the I'm and VM that's sitting in that. That's why some of that money came back in the Q4.

Speaker 4

Carol, over to you.

Speaker 9

Unfortunately, a short answer. I can't give any guidance on how much we're hedging or the forward sales.

Speaker 4

Is

Speaker 1

that because you don't know?

Speaker 9

Okay. I know.

Speaker 4

Slightly sensitive. Slightly sensitive.

Speaker 9

Yes, slightly sensitive. But what I can say is the team has managed Folio very well. Through Q3, we did have below average performance in Q4. That main driver on that was actually Freeport performance risk, But don't see any reason why we can't continue to deliver from that portfolio based on the optionality that we have within it going forward. And I'll leave it at that.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks. And Giulia, quickly on EU taxonomy?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks. So thank you, Michele. I can't see Michele right now.

Speaker 1

We can't either.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Michele. Let me start by saying that we actually clearly support the efforts in terms of transparency in the EU taxonomy. We're looking to see what happens in terms of all the multiple taxonomies coming together, SEC, CSRB, the EU taxonomy. We will start disclosing along the EU taxonomy in 2025 based on 2024 data as required by the CSRB. Now if you look into how much of our investment is actually going to be aligned to the taxonomy, we'll be disclosing our investments into Transition growth engines until then.

Speaker 2

And you can assume that towards 2,030, a significant majority of that will be aligned to the taxonomy.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Julia. Excellent. Paul Sheng, Scotiabank, and then we'll come back to the room.

Speaker 13

Hi. Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 13

Two questions, please. What's the assumption I think this is for Murray. What's the assumption that behind the High end and the low end of your capital range, I mean, what is the parameter behind that? The second one is that Maybe that is for Bernard. If we're looking outside your Transitioning business on the conventional or legacy oil and gas, should Europe be part of your long term portfolio Given the political environment.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good, Paul. Thank you. So Murray, the question I think was what would guide you to

Speaker 4

in the U. S? I think 2023 is a good way to think about our guidance. Right now, the hydrocarbon prices are pretty strong. And as we've said, we expect them to continue to be elevated.

Speaker 4

Our organic CapEx in 2022, if you look at the 4th quarter, Started to tick up probably into the low 14s. If you multiply by 4, our quarterly run rate in 4Q. And of course, we've added the Arkea pipeline, which will increase organic CapEx. We're adding more rigs, which will add CapEx. So we're probably at an organic run rate now of $14,000,000,000 to €15,000,000,000 in 2023.

Speaker 4

What we've guided is €16,000,000,000 to €18,000,000,000 including inorganics. So given the high price environment, Given what we're seeing organically, that gives you a sense of what our organic, inorganic split is. And looking forward, we'll be guided by the price range out there in the market each year. As we think about that $14 to $18 range, if prices fall back to the $40 level, we'll obviously be at the lower end of the range as Prices remain high. We'll have the flexibility to stay at the upper end of the range.

Speaker 4

I think that's probably what I'd say, Birgit.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Murray. And Paul, on Europe, I mean, I won't Collapse and make kind of regional statements in general other than to say we're returns driven. Our investments have to make The returns that we've laid out, there are some great opportunities in Europe today. We have a strong Oil and Gas Business in the U.

Speaker 1

K. North Sea. We have a strong oil and gas business in Norway with Aker BP. We are, I think, the fastest charging the largest fast charging provider in Germany today. We're excited about that.

Speaker 1

We have a new partnership With Ignacio Galan and the Air Bedrola team that we're very excited about in Spain around hydrogen and the potential for that. So It's a case by case basis, Paul. We look at all countries. We look at ultimately, we have to be driven our investments are driven by our returns criteria. And there are great opportunities in countries around Europe just like there are great opportunities elsewhere in the world.

Speaker 1

So let me leave it at that and come back So the room to Chris Coupland, please, and then we'll there must be some people over here, but excellent. Great. Thank you. Chris, go ahead.

Speaker 14

Chris Koopman from Bank of America. 1, under the banner of CapEx discipline. Just wondered whether your hurdle rates in Upstream have changed alongside your 60 to 70 move on the real assumptions for pricing. And if you could, There's quite a big difference between 1,500,000 and 2,000,000 barrels per day in 2,030. So I just wonder whether you could maybe go and talk us through The additional projects that would make up either the stemming of decline or the much lower assumed disposals That are behind this new target.

Speaker 14

And maybe as a bonus question, what makes you so confident that with No reduction in your refining footprint and now a much higher oil and gas footprint upstream. Your Scope 1 and 2 targets can remain unchanged. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Very good. Excellent. I'll have Gordon take the Scope 1 and 2 question as well. We'll kick off with Murray first.

Speaker 4

On hurdle rates? No change to hurdle rates, Chris.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we go from that then to what are we keeping? You're not Well, I'll let you answer your question. Euros 1,500,000 to €2,000,000 And how are you going to deliver the Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which we have not changed, Chris, as you quite rightly pointed out. Over to you, Gordon.

Speaker 6

Yes. Great question, Chris. Thank you for that. So we have a hopper of opportunities of 18,000,000,000 barrels. That's under Pinzor planned to 2030.

Speaker 6

And I have to say the subsurface team under the leadership of Aerofloris have done a fantastic job of articulating these 18,000,000,000 barrels Numerically and quality wise, much better than I've seen in the past. So 18 we've got 18,000,000,000 barrels in there. As we bring forward the opportunities, they have to hit the hurdle rates. And as Murray said, no hurdle rates. We've got 5 so to create momentum through 2025, we've got 5 major projects coming on this year, a little bit back end loaded, but 5 major projects that we have Confidence, big projects, projects like Tortue Phase 1 in Mauritania Senegal, projects like Tangu Phase 3 In Indonesia, projects like Argos, Mad Dog 2 in the Gulf of Mexico, they're going to come on and they're going to bring high quality barrels with them.

Speaker 6

Through to 2025, we've got 9, a total of 9 major projects coming on stream. So again, creating that momentum Through to 2025. And then from 25,000,000 to 30,000,000, we have a rich opportunity set within that 18,000,000,000 barrels. So we can make choices That will continue to offset decline, allow us to sell the 200,000 barrels per day that was mentioned earlier To end up at 2,000,000 barrels per day by 2,030. So I'm very confident that the resources in the ground, we've got the teams in place to execute.

Speaker 6

We Keep driving capital productivity under Andy Krieger in Wells. I'll give you just one example, a fast paced tie back we're executing right now in the Gulf of Mexico. Thunder Horse expansion between Phase 1 of that expansion and Phase 2, we halved the cost safely, Half the cost of a deepwater well. That's just one example of how we're driving productivity. And all these things just give us confidence that the Clear Ridge team doing Similar great work subsurface wise, drilling wise to develop the giant field west of Shetland more productively, more efficiently.

Speaker 6

So I'm actually very confident that we've got the resources in the ground. We've got tremendous teams in place to execute, and all we need to do now is execute well through the balance of this decade.

Speaker 1

Great. And you've kept your Scope 1 and 2 target constant despite having a higher refining throughput and a higher production. How have you done that?

Speaker 6

It just makes it harder. That's as simple as that. I think the world, the company, our stakeholders require us to give confidence. And I think, look, we've got a track record of delivering 1,000,000 roughly, roughly 1,000,000 tonnes per annum of sustainable aviation reductions just through Improving the way we operate. We're now starting to fill the hopper with projects that are slightly longer wavelength, maybe require a better capital.

Speaker 6

So we've got lots of opportunities here to deliver on that Aim 1. It's never easy. You got to while you're operating, you got to look for emission reduction. But I think that aim 1 is deliverable. I'm confident it's deliverable and we'll continue to fill the hopper with opportunities through the balance of the decade.

Speaker 1

And the reality is it's what Society needs and quite frankly, Chris, it's what our people want to deliver. They don't want to see us going back on aim 1 and we control it and we're leaning into it and we'll find it's harder. Of course, it's gotten harder, but we're going to deliver it. So thanks for raising that point. We'll go here in the audience.

Speaker 15

Thank you. I'm Patrick Ho from UBS. Thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of follow-up questions. The first one On the Upstream and the change in the production outlook to 2,030, should we expect a major change in terms of allocation between oil and gas?

Speaker 15

Obviously, you raised Your oil price due to $70 So should we expect a big skew towards oil projects in the later part of this decade? Or you Still intend to keep that fairly balanced

Speaker 5

oil and gas?

Speaker 6

I think it will be fairly balanced oil and gas, Patri, good question. Fairly balanced oil and gas. And of course, Every one of these projects must go through our investment reach our investment hurdles. That will be the primary determinant of how we invest. But as we look forward to the 18,000,000,000 barrels, I can see more than a dozen major project FIDs coming towards us from that hopper and it's pretty balanced oil and gas.

Speaker 1

Returns driven at the end of

Speaker 6

the year. Returns driven at the end of the year.

Speaker 1

Second question before you were interrupted.

Speaker 15

Second question is a follow-up on previous question around the capital allocation and the increase of 1,000,000,000 per annum both upstream and On the transition, it sounded like it's all subject to the macro and the ability to generate the cash flow to finance that growth. So you basically have Line on sight of enough projects to actually go through all of these, is that fair?

Speaker 4

Yes, there's definitely not a lack of opportunities to spend CapEx, let me put it that way. For 2023, 2024 or 2025 short cycle paybacks, Gordon is already getting the rigs. They're already coming into the portfolio. The returns are super high on those. Likewise, on the transit.

Speaker 4

So I think that's something we'll do, and it's robust through pretty low prices. You see We're holding our resilient balance point. It's robust through pretty low prices. As you then look at the transition, we're committed to doing these transition investments. If you cycled around the team, Emma is doing a fabulous job on EV adoption.

Speaker 4

I wouldn't be surprised if she does better than she's talking about. Convenience is going very well. I think we're very excited in the biofuel space between the refineries and additional facilities we see. As Bernard said, the Arkea transaction is going to be faster, better. I think we'll see lots of opportunities there.

Speaker 4

So I'd probably count on the higher end of the capital range and that will drive towards that. All of this Delivers EBITDA, obviously. And an awful lot of the EBITDA that's coming from the transition growth engines isn't price sensitive. So we'll have our Higher earnings that aren't as sensitive to the low price environment. So I'd count on us being able to manage through this time period with a fairly high activity set.

Speaker 1

Great. And there is a big wrapper, Murray, isn't there, around this whole presentation, which is everything we do here has to meet our returns And our growth target has to meet. And that's the wrapper, the underpinner, the foundation of everything that we talk about today. And if the returns aren't there, the capital doesn't get spent. If the returns and growth are there, it will get spent.

Speaker 1

Christian?

Speaker 4

This is

Speaker 16

Mike from JPMorgan. Thanks for the presentation. So sort of one quite long question, if I may, which is 3 years ago, I asked the question, what if oil prices were higher, Bernard? And you said we'd be very focused on CapEx. We wouldn't increase CapEx.

Speaker 16

And you're increasing CapEx on oil through a higher oil price deck. And so it sort of begs the question in terms of I see How you have to frame the macro view, and you've got to take a view. I agree with it in some ways, particularly in the oil piece. But What I'm struggling with is the disaggregation of value created through your macro outlook versus what you're doing bottom up through the businesses And the proof of concept in terms of the cash flow generated in your renewables vis a vis the investment and the return you're making Against a price view. And it's not that clear what you're assuming in the renewables Segment as it is obviously in oil because you can just put a Brent forecast down.

Speaker 16

So how do you help us This aggregate that value creation from what is a macro call to actually creating value through the value chain in renewables, particularly when it's becoming increasingly commoditized This is sort of the part A of my question. Part B is in the spirit of changing CapEx relative to your macro view, What's stopping you from flipping it back again if you become more bearish in one of those segments? In other words, you don't think Renewables is going to generate the same returns, so you reduce CapEx. Mean, it sort of feels quite dynamic and fluid around CapEx versus the prevailing macro view, which can obviously change and, as you said, be very volatile. Thank you.

Speaker 1

So the so you're making an assumption, I think, that we're growing capital because we increased our price deck. That's not the case. We're growing capital because we want to grow BP. You asked for disaggregation. It's very clear.

Speaker 1

It's in the deck. We deliver $5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 of extra EBITDA by 2,030, Forget price from the investments that we've got, dollars 3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 in hydrocarbons, dollars 2,000,000,000 extra in our transition growth engines. So this is about Growth. This is about opportunities that we see to invest both in today's energy security And in the energy transition, all of which we believe are accretive. They drive earnings.

Speaker 1

It's why one of the reasons we've raised the dividend today It's because we are investing and we see more potential to grow. So this isn't about prices go up, CapEx goes up. It's very, very different to that. This is a very, very disciplined focused on growth Where we can meet the returns that we laid out. And I think within there, we're very clear, Murray, about where that extra EBITDA comes from how much is I think we're crystal clear actually in the deck on that.

Speaker 1

Murray, what have I missed?

Speaker 4

Where returns had all heard in returns driven, Slide 18 tells you our returns and our assumptions. I'm not really sure how I'd get much clearer on that. And this is about performance really. If you go back to 2020, our balance sheet wasn't as strong as it is now. So we've got a much stronger balance sheet.

Speaker 4

We We've improved our position with the ratings agencies. It gives us the capacity to invest more, to drive more returns for shareholders. So we It's much more about performance and where what the strength of the company is rather than an arbitrary view on price, which you're right, can change over time.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we'll invest more. We're going to grow the company. We're going to deliver the returns. And the shareholders are going to see increased value both through distributions like the Announcement today on the dividend.

Speaker 1

So but we can follow-up on it. Where do I go next? Here? In the back. Sorry, lots of interest.

Speaker 4

You forgot the left side.

Speaker 1

Sorry, this is a feedback rich Organization, just upward feedback is alive and well. Great. Go for it.

Speaker 17

Great to hear that. It's Amy Wong here from Credit Suisse. Love to take advantage of having Anja on the panel to ask a question on biogas. Clearly, you guys are making a pretty big statement with we have the Arkea Energy acquisition. But also just want to hear about how do you scale a business like that?

Speaker 17

Because I think what I really struggle and some of the investors struggle is to understand how biogas Business where you're going from landfill to landfill is a scalable business and can deliver the type of returns. And I think it was also mentioned on the panel that you're going to do archaea Better and faster. So what's driving some of those comments? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Amy, thank you. It's actually Carole's business, so we should give it To Carol. And we had Nick Stork here and his team a few weeks ago to founder. And we are particularly excited about business. Go for it.

Speaker 9

No, we are very excited about the business, and we do see great opportunity. So I think when you look at it, I mean, at the moment, of course, we're looking at integration, BP Arkea platform coming together. But as Bernard mentioned previously, there's a significant there's more than 80 projects in that pipeline. We've got the ability to do a modular scaling across each of these landfills, go in there, develop the gas And bring that out and then look at different transportation routes to market. So we can increase and accelerate production, we can increase recoveries And we can also look at accessing newer revenue streams as well.

Speaker 9

I mean in the future, we'll have hydrogen as an opportunity. But right now, we can do methanol, we can do CCS EV charging for Emma's business. We've got utilities interested in renewable natural gas Because it's lower CI. So it's transportation, it's utilities. We could take it into our refineries.

Speaker 9

There are so many opportunities around it, which Creates the optionality that we like in the portfolio, gives us an opportunity to build the best markets for that to gain premiums And also to trade around those positions. So it is certainly scalable and we see strong returns and we see To invest more and yes, hugely excited to be working with the team.

Speaker 1

And if I could back to Christian's point, Christian is a good Example, we're putting more money into Arkea than Arkea would have on their own. They could have probably done 20 sites a year of that 80. We'll Do more quickly because we have the balance sheet to be able to lean into that investment. What's the stat we'll get 30% of that CapEx back if we get them online by 2025. So these are decisions that with the balance sheet we can lean, got nothing to do with the price assumption on oil.

Speaker 1

This is an opportunity driven. We're going to speed up that pipeline and get those 80 sites online in the next couple of years. And the EBITDA from that's going to be material without question. So pretty exciting. Anyway, Amy, thank you.

Speaker 1

Where were you guys pointing to me? Biraj, sorry. How are we doing, Craig? Are we okay?

Operator

Doing excellent.

Speaker 1

Okay. All right. All right.

Speaker 18

Thanks for taking my question. It's Biraj from RBC. Two questions, please. First one in the Upstream. Could you just clarify whether or what role, if any, exploration success Has in your plans to 2025 2030?

Speaker 18

And so related to that, on the inorganic side, most of the inorganic activity, Acquisitions wise, it's been on low carbon last couple of years. I don't want to make Gordon's life even harder, but are you open to inorganic Bolt ons in the Upstream, and how are you thinking about that within the constraints of the framework? And the second question is going back to LNG. So last quarter, Marie, you highlighted the big working capital outflow because of the margining.

Speaker 6

But if I'm

Speaker 18

thinking about BP hedging through summer the 2023 price was actually way above the price cap, which was then implemented. So how does that price cap impact 2023, if at all, in the LNG business.

Speaker 1

Fantastic. Okay. Thank you, Biraj. Carol, I'll ask you to lead off on price caps Murray, as you guys debated, Karl Gopher on price caps and hedging. And then Gordon, is exploration success built into your plan?

Speaker 1

Do you need it? And are you going to come to Murray and I with a bunch of money to go and buy oil and gas assets when you've got 18,000,000,000 barrels of your own Clue. Go ahead, Carol.

Speaker 9

So talking about the European market correction mechanism. So We're working through that. I mean, there are a number of nuances around that in terms of it has to be over a certain number of days And then there also has to be a certain delta in terms of when that actual cap gets triggered. I think the whole market is working through that at the moment. Do we think in any way that it impacts our ability to manage our portfolio?

Speaker 9

No. We do have other opportunities. We've got opportunities directly, bilaterals. We've also got opportunities in terms of different structures that we can use. Our role is to make sure that we've got the optionality.

Speaker 9

We're being proactive around managing that risk. And with Murray's support and Treasury support, That is certainly what we did last year in terms of getting ahead of some of these changes in the market.

Speaker 6

Thank you, Karl. Gordon? Yes. On exploration, we The 2,030 outcome is influenced by exploration success by a very small wave. What do I mean by that?

Speaker 6

We have Success built into the 18,000,000,000 barrels, but on a risk basis, we take the exploration risk. And the reason we've done that is we have some pretty rich, What we call ILX, infrastructure led exploration opportunities, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea and in Egypt, Which, if they come in, will become part of the fast tieback opportunity set. But to emphasize and to answer the question, they're all risked Within the 18,000,000,000 barrels. So it has a very small impact on the outcome in 2030.

Speaker 1

Not reliant on it.

Speaker 6

Not reliant on it. It's a simple answer on that. And then Am I going to come and ask for money to buy in organics? The answer is a qualified yes. Where it's a natural fit on the portfolio?

Speaker 6

Are we going to go buy something away outside our current portfolio, away outside our heartlands that we have in our company? No, that doesn't make any sense. Other companies can go and do that. But where there's a natural bolt on and we could add more value having it in our portfolio than we think anyone else could and It meets the criteria of contributing to low carbon and low cost and security of supply, then of course, we would consider that.

Speaker 1

Very good. I mean, I think we used to call it smart M and A or commercial deals. Aker BP, instead of exiting Norway, we created Aker BP. Aker BP then went and bought Lundin. Aker BP is operated by other production from Johan Sverdrup alone is 2 50,000 barrels a day, it's a pretty extraordinary company now that was created.

Speaker 1

We could have exited Angola maybe, but we didn't. We wanted to stay. We wanted to grow. We've created Azul Energy. So think about it as I think you may see us doing some smart M and A, commercial deals, partnerships, things that make sense in that space.

Speaker 1

We'll go go ahead. Go for it. Craig, are you okay to run on a little bit here, 15 more minutes or not? You're the boss.

Operator

I'm not, but yes, we can go another 15 minutes. I

Speaker 1

think we should while we're going. So we'll go 15 more minutes and then we'll let you guys have a break and we'll have

Speaker 19

Peter Low from Redburn. So yes, the first question, you've announced an increase in spending today across the oil and gas And the Renewable and Low Carbon piece, I think it's probably fair to say you're seeing inflationary cost pressures in both. How are you managing that? And kind of what inflation assumptions are embedded within the CapEx budget? And then the second question was just on kind of the 2,030 renewable power target, So the 50 gigawatts and the 10 gigawatts, can you just explain the difference between those 2?

Speaker 19

A lot of it going to be under construction? Or will you be farming it down? Some color on that would be helpful.

Speaker 1

Fantastic. Murray, first of all, just general CapExinflation and then Anja.

Speaker 4

CapEx inflation is pretty continues to be pretty low for us. You'll remember, back in 2022, we had about 10% inflation inside the Lower 48, Gordon. Since then, for 2023, we've gone out and let longer term contracts and we've seen deflation as opposed to inflation. So it's not really Featuring is a material issue across the upstream. I think in low carbon, there's really no change from previous guidance around 5% inflation is What we saw in the offshore wind platform, there's more inside solar, but solar is self funding inside BP inside LightSource BP, so that doesn't impact the overall balance sheet.

Speaker 4

So despite the extraordinary environment we've been through the past couple of years, these guys have done a tremendous job working with supply chain to mitigate those supply chain effects, I wouldn't expect them to not continue to do that in the future.

Speaker 1

Great. Anja, 50 and 10?

Speaker 5

50 and 10, we said 50 gigawatts to FID. And As I said, we will be very selective in terms of where we allocate CapEx because it has to ultimately make sense, create integration value and as such a superior return and Derisks because you don't have access to green electrons everywhere around the planet. So, 50 to give 50 to FID, 10 will be in operations, hold it another 10 in construction and then the rest is farm downs. A lot of the 50 will come from Light Source BP, which is a develop and sell model, very, very attractive, very stable. But we will also farm down on, let's say, for example, offshore wind assets, etcetera, because ultimately what we want is access to the green electron and the high grading opportunity, and we don't need Necessarily control 100 percent of the asset.

Speaker 1

Excellent. Thank you, Anja. Alstern or not Alstern. Go, go, go, go. Martin, sorry.

Speaker 6

All right.

Speaker 1

Thanks. These photographs, guys, you need to update your photographs because I think, OZ, you're the only person who hasn't aged.

Speaker 20

All right. Wonderful. Well, So slightly conceptual, but I was wondering the $8,000,000,000 in oil and gas in sort of today's environment. It's not entirely sort of obvious. And sort of little technical questions have already been asked about it.

Speaker 20

But I was wondering how the internal sort of decision making process came about to sort of got you there. What the milestones or the signposts along the way were, where you think, yes, really, like we need to do this? Was it just simply about the oil and gas prices or European energy crisis or Whatever it might be. The second thing I wanted to ask you is about the assets that you now intend to retain a little bit longer. And I'm sure you're not going to spell those out for us, but I was wondering if you could perhaps talk about whether they have a sort of shared characteristic, as in the assets that you're now likely to retain longer.

Speaker 20

Is it oil? Is it gas? Is it offshore? Is it onshore Eastern Hemisphere, Western Hemisphere? I guess, is there some common denominator that we can sort of work with?

Speaker 20

And then finally, if I can throw in a third one. Given the way things going, I mean, could you stay in the building?

Speaker 1

Could we stay in the building?

Speaker 20

Yes, as in this building, because I thought it was you wouldn't move out, no? I was wondering if you could stay.

Speaker 1

Yes. Great. I'm fascinated how you connect that to the investment But it is a nice building. I like it. We can follow-up on that Martin.

Speaker 1

But Great. Gordon, we'll ask you to say about the assets you're keeping longer. I mean in terms of the production thing, It's really an output of the work that we've been doing. And I would say it's driven by 2 things. And in fact The whole strategy leaning in today is driven by 2 things, Martin.

Speaker 1

First is, we've been at this for 3 years. We have done a lot. The organization has done a lot. I think it's fair to say that we can all say there's A real track record of delivery. And that has brought with it our increased confidence in the business.

Speaker 1

And in doing that, the business has improved. I'm delighted that we've had the best operating reliability On record in BP, and the records go back 15 or 20 years. I'm delighted that we have the lowest production cost since 2,006. So Our ability to add value to the assets that we have have improved has improved over the last 3 years. That's a very important part.

Speaker 1

And then the external macro part isn't about prices. It's about it's what is needed. We must Solve the energy trilemma. Yes, we need lower carbon energy, but we also need secure energy and we need affordable energy. And that's what governments and society around the world are asking.

Speaker 1

And they're asking it publicly. They're asking it in the United States, invest in today's energy system. They're every country in Europe, but many countries in Europe going around the world searching for energy supplies. So we're being asked by governments and society. We have improved our business.

Speaker 1

We have more confidence. And we think in doing this, we can help solve the energy trilemma for society, which feels like a worthwhile thing to do. And we feel we can create shareholder value. And that's what we're trying to do. That's what we have to do.

Speaker 1

That's our job. So that's a little bit of the backdrop. Gordon?

Speaker 6

Yes. In terms of the assets that we now plan to keep, I'd say there's 3 characteristics. The first one is an improved view of the commerciality around these assets. And I gave the example of Azul and Aker BP, London Energy and there are others. So the commercial opportunity Around owning these assets, we've got an enhanced view of.

Speaker 6

The operating performance, and Bernard just mentioned it, that we have See an improvement and we can see more improvement going forward in these assets. And that all leads, of course, to the 3rd characteristic, which is returns. It's all returns driven. They meet our returns criteria and it fits with our how we look at returns going forward.

Speaker 1

And we are going to move from St. James' Square at some stage, but it will be another year or 2. So this young lady here, please. Thank you.

Speaker 21

Hi. It's Kim Feste from HSBC. On the incremental dollars going into hydrocarbons, I suppose you mentioned BPX and the U. S. Gulf of Mexico, but you did mention LNG.

Speaker 21

And when it comes to the energy security concerns that Bernard alluded to, you would have thought LNG would be front and center of those. So I just wondered if you had any plans to invest incremental CapEx into LNG or maybe use a more capital light strategy, such as, for example, contracting third party LNG from other companies. My second question is on the impact of the U. S. Inflation Reduction Act.

Speaker 21

I wondered if you could offer any thoughts on what that does to the economics Of your existing low carbon projects such as hydrogen and CCS and Bioenergy and whether as a result of the IRA, it might attract more of your own investment dollars Going forward into the U. S.

Speaker 1

Great, Kim. Thank you very much. I'll ask Anja to take on the impact on the IRA. Carol can add anything on biogas on the IRA if she wishes. And Carol LNG, I mean, just the growth that we have in LNG over the next 3 years, maybe just spell that out a little bit and how we think about it.

Speaker 9

Yes. No, absolutely. So 90,000,000 tonnes per annum 2022, grow to 25,000,000 in 2025, and 30,000,030. It's a mix of merchant and equity, but we will see the balance going to more merchant in the future. We have a contracting strategy we have done for a number of years.

Speaker 9

And as Bernard mentioned before, we've been able to time those purchases Well, in terms of actually avoiding buying in the peaks and selling in the troughs. So We've got a good process around that, and we'll continue to look for opportunities as they go forward. And then, of course, we've got on the Upstream gas side. We work very closely With Anya and the team there and with Gordon in terms of selling and trading the equity from BP's positions.

Speaker 1

Great. Okay. And anything On the equity side,

Speaker 4

I suppose we have some choices ahead of us. We've got some choices in Australia. We've got choices in West Africa, we've got choices in the Middle East to continue to think about expanding equity investments in LNG as well, and those are decisions that we'll be making over time.

Speaker 1

Great. IRA in the United States?

Speaker 5

Game changer, very, very clearly. That under Hence, really, a lot of the projects we have been working on, not only in my space, but equally so in Emma's space, I think. And as a consequence of IAA, we Clearly, have prioritized projects in the U. S. Versus other regions around the world.

Speaker 5

I think It's fair to say that Europe is catching up and some very good announcement or promising announcement last week. But it is The beauty of the RIA is the simplicity. And I think this is where I think Europe, let's say, needs to catch up a little bit with kind of you have to Kind of bid your projects into Ipce, etcetera, etcetera. So very clearly, strong focus on the U. S.

Speaker 5

As a consequence of RIA And then strong focus, as Bernard explained, on our refinery project because these are natural things for the hydrogen. So I think we feel comfortable about

Speaker 1

Good. Great. Anja, thank you. We'll take one more question in the room. I'm just going to take Jason Kenney from Santander.

Speaker 1

Jason, I think your second question has been addressed. Carol, good job on delivery by BP in 2022. That's from Jason, that's from me.

Speaker 9

Yes, we haven't had our performance appraisal yet, have we?

Speaker 1

No, later today. If trading has added see how you do on this If trading has added 4% to Rachi over the last 3 years, what should we expect in the next you can thank Murray. What should we expect in the next 3 years, I'm assuming, he is assuming, 2% through cycle, but how much is excessive volatility and how much is average conditions?

Speaker 9

So I know with my learned colleague on the left here, he would say no guidance. But what I can say is that we do have Strongly believe that we do have a differentiated trading platform, global scale experience, multiple markets, multiple commodities, multiple Customers. We have benefited from the inherent increase in volatility over the past few years, but we've also seen growth in that portfolio. We also see further growth going forward, whether that's across biogas, biofuels or LNG or even then into the newer commodities, Hydrogen and their derivatives. I believe we've got strong capability, risk management, trading, optimization analytics.

Speaker 9

We would like to say world class. Anne, I think subject to volatility and retaining our competitive advantage, as Marie had said, we would like to continue to deliver For BP going forward.

Speaker 1

Sounds good. Good job. Great. Last question in the room. Who wants to take the last question?

Speaker 1

We don't have any more questions. Lydia, go on, and then we'll let you and then I need to wrap.

Speaker 3

One last one for me. Just given the amount of cash flow and EBITDA that you now have, Where do you want net debt to actually go to, Murray, just in terms of to help us think about long term? Because I mean, if I look at the 2025 numbers, You're essentially trading on 2x CV EBITDA. So assuming you've got no debt at that point. So where do you want that to go to?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think, look, we give this guidance year by year is What we give you, we've firmed up the guidance a little bit this time. Instead of just strong investment grade credit rating, we've said further progress in the A range. So we'll be working with the rating agencies to try to achieve that. We think with the growth we're seeing That we should be able to progress through the A range with that continued debt reduction, but it's a little bit about how our interaction with the ratings agencies go.

Speaker 4

So Fingers crossed, but we provide this guidance 1 year at a time. We don't look at hope beyond that. The macro environment is just too volatile to do anything else for you. So 40% of surplus to debt reduction and continued focus on growing EBITDA so that we can get that cash flow from operations over expanded debt down.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you. And thanks for listening. I I hope you've got a bit of a sense of the business, the strategy and I hope importantly the team. We're sort of We're I think we're in our stride 3 years in now, and I hope you can See the confidence that we have in what we're trying to do.

Speaker 1

We have no more time for questions. For those of you in the room, Thank you for coming here. For those of you on the phone, thank you for joining us. It is an important day for us as we Transform ourselves. And I hope you've heard 3 clear points.

Speaker 1

They're short, don't worry. First, We're delivering. BP is delivering. We are performing while transforming. 2nd, we're leaning further in to the strategy, And we're doing that with increasing confidence.

Speaker 1

And 3rd, crucially, we remain focused on delivering for our owners, our shareholders. And I and the team look forward to seeing many of you this week when we're out on the road. We're headed to the U. K. Or we're in the U.

Speaker 1

K. We're headed to Europe. We're headed to the United States as well. And for those of you who made the journey here in person, we've got some refreshments outside, and the team will hang around to spend time and chat with you if you'd like. So thanks, everybody.

Speaker 1

Really appreciate it. Cheers.

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Earnings Conference Call
BP Q4 2022
00:00 / 00:00