BP Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 5, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Strong operational performance with 96%+ reliability in upstream and the best first-half refining availability since 2006.
  • Positive Sentiment: Delivered $2.4 billion underlying net income and $6.3 billion operating cash flow, while raising the quarterly dividend by 4% and authorizing a $750 million share buyback.
  • Positive Sentiment: Achieved around $1.7 billion of structural cost reductions year to date, on track for a $4–5 billion target by 2027 through supply-chain and organizational efficiencies.
  • Positive Sentiment: Advanced portfolio reshaping with nearly $3 billion of divestment proceeds secured and progress on key upstream projects and exploration, including five project start-ups and 10 new discoveries.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Outlook for Q3 anticipates slightly lower upstream production and approximately $1 billion higher cash taxes due to instalment timing.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
BP Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Speaker 1

Hello everyone, and thank you for your interest in BP's second quarter 2025 results. Today's video presentation features Murray Auchincloss, Chief Executive Officer, and Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer. Before I hand over to Murray, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. In this presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement, and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website. Over to you, Murray.

Operator

Thanks, Craig. Before we begin, and following the announcement a fortnight ago, I'd like to extend my welcome to the incoming Chair, Albert Manifold. Albert will join the board on the 1st of September as a Non-Executive Director and Chair-elect before taking over as Chair on the 1st of October. I am really looking forward to working with him. Turning to today's presentation, we are now two quarters into our 12-quarter plan, and I'm encouraged by our results. Our operations are performing well, with continuing strong plant reliability in the upstream and the best first-half refining availability since 2006. We continue to invest to enhance our portfolio and have also made further progress on our divestment program, with expected proceeds from completed or signed agreements now close to $3 billion.

Operator

We have also made good progress on delivering our program to safely and sustainably reduce our costs as we grow the company. We have now delivered around $1.7 billion of structural cost reductions since the start of the program, with around three quarters from supply chain efficiencies and organizational transformation. We remain focused on driving reductions down to the bottom line, and Kate will provide more details on this shortly. Today, we have announced an increase to our resilient dividend for the second quarter and a further share buyback program for the third quarter. All of this is in service of delivering a compelling investor proposition and to sustainably grow long-term shareholder value. I'm pleased with progress, but of course, there is a lot more to do. We remain relentless in our aim to deliver improvements right across BP.

Operator

Turning to performance highlights year to date and for the quarter, we remain focused on safety, which is our number one priority. Process safety events have decreased by around 30% compared to the first six months last year. To date, upstream production is ahead of plan, increasing by around 3% quarter on quarter and averaging 2.3 million barrels a day for the first half of the year. Upstream plant reliability and refining availability were both above 96%. Focusing on the second quarter, the strong operational performance supported the delivery of $2.4 billion of underlying net income and $6.3 billion of operating cash flow, which included a $1.4 billion build in working capital. Consistent with our financial frame, we have announced a dividend per ordinary share of $0.8320, a 4% increase, and a further $750 million share buyback for the second quarter.

Operator

I'm also proud of the progress the team is making in executing our strategy, as can be seen in the progress we have made since the first quarter as we grow the upstream. Following the safe delivery of First Oil at Argo Southwest Extension in the Gulf of Mexico and First Gas at Mento in Trinidad, we have now delivered five of the ten major project startups planned through 2027. Additionally, the Azul joint venture announced a successful startup of the Agogo Integrated West Hub project in Angola, the first of a further seven projects planned for startup through 2027 across our joint ventures in Norway, Angola, and Argentina. In the U.S., BPX Energy started up Crossroads, the fourth and final central delivery facility in the Permian Basin, increasing takeaway capacity in the liquids-rich basin as we continue to grow production out to the end of the decade.

Operator

We've taken four final investment decisions this year, including the Shah Deniz Compression Project in Azerbaijan, the next major phase of development of the giant Shah Deniz gas field, the Atlantis Major Facility Expansion Project in the Gulf of Mexico, and an infill wells program at the KGD6 block in India. We've continued to deepen our hopper. In Azerbaijan, together with our partners, we entered into a series of agreements that will build and expand on our major oil and gas interests. In Libya, we signed an MOU with the National Oil Corporation to evaluate redevelopment opportunities in the Sirt Basin. Finally, our subsurface and drilling teams have continued their strong start to the year with ten exploration discoveries so far. Our best year in recent memory, including an exciting well in the Bumerangue block located in Brazil's Santos Basin, in which we hold 100% participation.

Operator

The discovery is about 400 kilometers from Rio de Janeiro in water depths of 2,400 meters. The well was drilled to a total depth of 5,850 meters, intersecting the reservoir about 500 meters below the crest of the structure and penetrating an estimated 500-meter gross hydrocarbon column in a high-quality pre-salt carbonate reservoir with an aerial extent of greater than 300 square kilometers. Rig site analysis indicates elevated levels of carbon dioxide. We'll now begin laboratory analysis to further characterize the reservoir and fluids discovered, followed by appraisal activities subject to regulatory approval. These five major project startups, four major project FIDs, ten exploration discoveries, and significant new access deals delivered so far in 2025 all underpin our confidence in the continued growth of the upstream. In downstream, the team is focused on driving improved competitiveness and reliability across our facilities.

Operator

Refining availability was 3% higher in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Importantly, we completed two significant refinery turnarounds in the quarter, including a major crude and coker turnaround at Cherry Point. Earnings in our customers' business were around 50% higher in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, supported by strong integrated performance across fuels and midstream and delivery against our structural cost program. We are addressing areas where results are not what we expect. For example, in travel centers, we are executing a program to protect near-term cash flow and improve profitability at the bottom of the cycle. In the U.S., we are working to optimize further the fuel's value chain. Meanwhile, we're reshaping our portfolio to focus on businesses and markets where we have advantaged and integrated positions.

Operator

We are progressing the strategic review of Castrol at pace. The business continues to perform very well, with earnings more than 20% higher in the first half of the year compared with the first half of 2024, and the second quarter marking the eighth consecutive quarter of improved year-on-year performance. Last month, we agreed to sell our mobility, convenience, and BP Pulse businesses in the Netherlands, and the sale processes for our Austrian retail business and Gelsenkirchen refinery continue. In transition, we're continuing to high-grade and decapitalize low-carbon energy. This includes agreeing the sale of our U.S. onshore wind business following a competitive bidding process. In offshore wind, we have completed the formation of the Jaron X BP, our 50/50 joint venture. Finally, our decisions to exit projects in the U.S. and Australia demonstrate the further focusing of our hydrogen and CCS portfolio.

Operator

In summary, strong operational performance this quarter and good strategic progress. Our focus is on maintaining this momentum as we look ahead to the second half of 2025 and beyond. With that, I'll hand over to Kate to talk through our second quarter financial results.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Murray, and hello everyone. I'll start with the segment financial performance. In the second quarter, the gas and low-carbon energy underlying financial result was $500 million higher than the previous quarter, reflecting an average gas marketing and trading result compared with a weak result in the first quarter and higher production volume, partly offset by lower realizations and a higher DD&A charge. In oil production and operations, the underlying result was $600 million lower compared to the previous quarter, reflecting lower realizations and a higher DD&A charge, partly offset by higher production. In customers and products, the underlying result was around $900 million higher than the previous quarter. Looking at the businesses, in customers, the underlying profit was around $400 million higher than the previous quarter, reflecting seasonally higher volumes and stronger fuels margins.

Speaker 2

This was the best Q2 for over a decade as we continue to build momentum across the business. In product, the underlying profit was around $500 million higher than the previous quarter, reflecting stronger realized refining margins and a strong oil trading contribution, partially offset by a significantly higher level of turnaround activity. I do want to recognize the trading organization for its performance this quarter during what was a period of challenging trading conditions. This is a demonstration of the organization's resilience and their continuing focus on creating value and delivering returns through the cycle. Below the operating segments, underlying finance costs were $1.1 billion, and non-controlling interest was $300 million, similar to the prior quarter, and expected to remain at this level for the next couple of quarters. The underlying effective tax rate decreased in the second quarter to 36%, reflecting changes in the geographical mix of profits.

Speaker 2

For the first half, our underlying tax rate was 43%, and we continue to expect the full year underlying effective tax rate to be around 40%. Taken together, we reported group underlying replacement cost profit of $2.4 billion. Net adverse adjusting items was $300 million, and the inventory holding losses after tax was $400 million. On an IFRS basis, our headline profit was $1.6 billion. Now, turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, operating cash flow was $6.3 billion, including a working capital build of $1.4 billion. Operating cash flow was $3.4 billion higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher earnings and a lower working capital build. We did see some of the first quarter working capital build reverse in the second quarter, but this was more than offset by the scheduled $1.1 billion Gulf of America settlement payment and other movements.

Speaker 2

Capital expenditure was $3.4 billion, bringing the first half CapEx to around $7 billion. Divestment proceeds received in the quarter were around $1.4 billion, bringing the first half to around $1.7 billion. As Murray said, expected proceeds from completed or signed agreements are now close to $3 billion, underpinning our continued confidence in delivering expected divestment proceeds for 2025 in the range of $3 to $4 billion. Together, our second quarter cash inflows, driven by higher operating cash flow and divestment and other proceeds, exceeded our cash outflows, resulting in a reduction in net debt to $26 billion. Turning to our financial frame, which remains unchanged, we remain committed to our net debt target of $14 to $18 billion. On shareholder distributions, firstly, our policy is to maintain a resilient dividend. For the second quarter, we have announced a dividend of $0.832 per ordinary share, an increase of 4%.

Speaker 2

We are committed to sharing excess cash through buybacks over time. This policy enables us to share the upside in cash generation when the price environment is stronger, while enabling the balance sheet to remain resilient in a lower price environment. Today, we announce $750 million of share buybacks to be executed by the 3Q results. Our guidance remains for total dividends and share buybacks to be in the range of 30% to 40% of operating cash flow over time. Looking ahead, we continue to expect to announce buyback decisions at the time of quarterly results. The board will, of course, be mindful of both short-term macro volatility and the medium-term outlook for prices across the basket of commodities that drive our cash flow. I'd now like to spend the next few minutes highlighting the progress we've made on two of our primary targets.

Speaker 2

Firstly, on our target to deliver 20% compound annual growth in adjusted free cash flow from 2024 to 2027, we're six months into our reset strategy and making good progress, delivering around 40% growth year-on-year on a price-adjusted basis, supported by interventions we've taken on CapEx and the benefit of lower cash taxes. As we continue to drive improvement in performance, we remain confident in delivering the underlying organic growth from across the businesses. Secondly, we're committed to delivering $4 to $5 billion of structural cost reductions against our 2023 baseline by the end of 2027 and to update you on our progress every six months. Delivering sustainable cost reductions safely is an important factor underpinning our adjusted free cash flow target. This is an area of relentless focus for us as a leadership team.

Speaker 2

Before looking at progress, let me remind you how we frame our $4 to $5 billion target, which represents around 20% of our 2023 underlying operating expenditures of $22.6 billion. As a reminder, underlying operating expenditures are reported across two income statement lines: production and manufacturing expenses, or P&M, and distribution and administration expenses, or D&A. Starting with our fourth quarter 2024 results, we introduced additional disclosures in our results announcements, which further break out the P&M and D&A costs into those that vary primarily by volume versus those that are in our underlying cost base. We believe the additional disclosures frame our underlying operating expenditure and structural cost reductions consistently with peers and improve comparability. As a reminder, potential reductions that would be associated with the outcome of the Castrol strategic review and Gelsenkirchen transaction are not included in this target.

Speaker 2

We have made strong progress in delivering these cost reductions since we started this program. In 2024, we delivered around $750 million of structural cost reductions. In the first half of 2025, we've continued to build positive momentum, delivering an additional $900 million in savings. That means since the start of our program, we have now delivered around $1.7 billion of structural cost reductions, more than offsetting over $1.2 billion of costs related to the growth of our business and environmental factors. This results in a reduction in absolute underlying operating expenditure of around $500 million. Now, looking at the first half of 2025 in more detail, around 50% of growth costs were organic. These relate to growing the upstream, with major project startups such as Mento and growth in BPX Energy production driving higher underlying operating expenditures.

Speaker 2

The other 50% of growth is inorganic, related to the full consolidation of Lightsource BP and BP Bioenergy, which means our underlying operating expenditures reflect removing costs associated with divestments and cost growth acquisitions. We've no other material inorganic additions in the plan. Our underlying operating expenditures are also influenced by environmental factors, and notably inflation of around $300 million. We continue to work to offset much of this through our procurement organization, including working closely with supplier alliances. Looking forward, we expect continued momentum in the pace of delivery into the second half of 2025. Progress in our structural cost reduction program reflects the significant changes we've made to the performance culture across the organization to further embed discipline and accountability. You can see on this slide the contribution from each of the business groups, with around 60% coming from the C&P segment since the start of 2024.

Speaker 2

We've also been heavily focused on reducing our corporate and overhead costs, and we've delivered over $400 million of reductions from these activities. The benefit of this shows up in the business group numbers, with a remaining $100 million in other businesses and corporate. Looking at the reductions by lever, across the supply chain, we've delivered around $900 million of savings. Over a third of our supply chain spend reductions seen so far reflect a reduction in contractors, significantly enabled by technology, which I'll elaborate on in a minute. We have already reduced our contractor numbers by 3,200, and we expect a further 1,200 contractors to exit by the end of 2025. Beyond that, we will continue to rigorously review the remaining contractor activity across our businesses and functions.

Speaker 2

In organizational transformation, we now expect 6,200 BP roles to be impacted by the end of 2025 out of an office-based workforce of 40,000 employees. With a majority of the exits anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect material incremental savings from the first quarter of 2026. As Murray mentioned, we're in action high-grading our portfolio. More than 50% of portfolio-related reductions to 2027 are now underpinned by announced divestments. Before I close with guidance, I just want to showcase how technology is helping to improve capital productivity and drive cost reductions right across the portfolio. Our total resource management program leverages an advanced analytics tool developed in collaboration with Palantir to systematically manage the contractor landscape across BP. This initiative has enabled us to achieve significant supply chain spend reductions, as I've previously mentioned.

Speaker 2

In organizational transformation, we're reducing the number of ERP systems that we use by 85%, democratizing data to allow work to be executed in lower-cost locations, and implementing AI-powered systems. Within the businesses at our offshore oil and gas facilities, digital tools enable us to optimize production through real-time surveillance and equipment monitoring, increasing overall BP-operated production by around 5%, in addition to protecting over 10% more from going offline. Planning a well is complex and can take months. In Azerbaijan, the engineers are now using generative AI to run thousands of scenarios in just a few days, helping to deliver a 90% reduction in the time required for well planning. In conjunction with Palantir, we're now taking the learning from a decade of digitizing the upstream across to our refining business, where we see multiple opportunities to remove costs, create efficiencies, and optimize our refinery portfolio.

Speaker 2

In convenience and mobility, we're utilizing AI and digital tools to drive efficiency in our marketing organization. For example, we're now producing point-of-sale marketing materials in around 50% of the time it used to take, thereby allowing greater speed to market and significantly reducing costs. Now, turning to guidance and looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect upstream production to be slightly lower compared to the second quarter. In customers, seasonally higher volumes compared to the second quarter and fuel margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. In products, a significantly lower level of planned refinery turnaround activity, which is partly offset by seasonal effects of environmental compliance costs. In terms of cash flow, we expect cash taxes paid to be around $1 billion higher than the second quarter due to the timing of installment payments.

Speaker 2

We have elected to redeem $1.2 billion of hybrid bonds in September. This represents the remaining amount callable in the June to September 2025 window, and this was pre-financed in November 2024. Regarding the full year 2025 guidance, in addition to the change in customers, I have a few things to highlight. In products, we're now no longer providing guidance on refining margins because we're now giving you a weekly refining indicator margin, which I will give you more detail on shortly. The OBNZ underlying quarterly charge is now expected to be in the range of $0.5 billion to $1 billion, subject to foreign exchange impacts. We now expect the depreciation, depletion, and amortization to be slightly higher than 2024. We continue to expect divestment and other proceeds to be around $3 billion to $4 billion, with the remaining proceeds weighted towards the fourth quarter of 2025.

Speaker 2

Before I hand back to Murray, and consistent with our continuing effort to improve guidance and enhance transparency, effective today, we are introducing a new BP refining indicator margin. This metric is more representative of BP's refining portfolio and realized refining margin per barrel. We believe this weekly disclosure enhances external understanding of our realized margin delivery and refining profitability. To support this, we've also updated our refining rule of thumb. As a consequence of this change, the BP refining market margin is retired. The price assumptions applicable to two of our primary targets have been rebased with the refining indicator margin, and importantly, there is no change to our targets. More details can be found in the appendix to this presentation and in our supplementary disclosures. Now, let me hand back to Murray.

Operator

Thanks, Kate. To summarize, in the first half of 2025, we have delivered strong operational performance with greater than 96% reliability, made further progress on delivering structural cost reductions, enhanced our portfolio, notably in the upstream, progressed our divestment program, announced a second quarter dividend increase of 4% per ordinary share, payable in the third quarter, and a second quarter share buyback of $750 million to be executed by the time of our third quarter results. We are two quarters into a 12-quarter plan and are laser-focused on delivery of our four key targets. While we should be encouraged by our early progress, we know there's much more to do.

Operator

In advance of Albert joining the board on the 1st of September, he and I have been in discussions and have agreed that we will conduct a thorough review of our portfolio of businesses to ensure we are maximizing shareholder value moving forward, allocating capital effectively. We are also initiating a further cost review, and while we will not compromise on safety, we are doing this with a view to being best in class in our industry. We reaffirm our commitment to ensure that there is an embedded process of continuous business improvement across our operations. This is all in service of accelerating the delivery of our strategy. BP can and will do better for its investors. Thank you for listening.

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