SBA Communications Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • SBA reported Q1 GAAP site leasing revenues of $617.3 million (cash revenues $610.4 million), slightly above expectations, and raised its full-year 2023 guidance for most metrics.
  • Same-tower recurring cash leasing revenue grew 4.7% net (8.9% gross) versus Q1 2022, with domestic net growth of 5.1% and balanced bookings from the “Big Four” carriers.
  • Tower cash flow margins remained robust at 84.3% domestic and 69.9% international (91.8% ex pass-through), driving a Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin of 68.7% and AFFO of $341.7 million.
  • AFFO growth was hindered by rising interest rates, which are expected to impact cash flow growth throughout the year.
  • The board declared a Q2 cash dividend of $0.85 per share, up ~20% year-over-year and representing about 27% of projected AFFO, highlighting capital return strength.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
SBA Communications Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SBA First Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode and later we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mark DeRussy, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good evening and thank you for joining us for SBA's 1st Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Here with me today are Jeff Stukes, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Brendan Kavanaugh, our Chief Financial Officer. In today's press release and our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, May 1, and we have no obligation to update any forward looking statement that we may make. In addition, our comments will include non GAAP Financial measures and other key operating metrics.

Speaker 1

The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our Investor Relations website. With that, I will now turn it over to Brendan to discuss our Q1 results.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark. Good evening. We started the year off with a solid Q1. Our results were slightly ahead of our expectations and allowed us to increase our full year 2023 outlook for most metrics. Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the Q1 were $617,300,000 and cash site leasing revenues were $610,400,000 Foreign exchange rates represented a benefit of approximately $600,000 when compared with our previously forecasted FX rate estimates for the quarter and a headwind of $2,500,000 when compared to the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the Q1, which is calculated on a constant currency basis, was 4.7% net over the Q1 of 2022, including the impact of 4.2 percent of churn. On a gross basis, same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth was 8.9%. Domestic same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the Q1 of last year was 8.5% on a gross basis and 5.1% on a net basis, including 3.4% of churn. Domestic operational leasing activity Our bookings representing new revenue placed under contract during the Q1 remained steady and it was similar to the Q4. We again saw balanced contributions from each of our largest customers.

Speaker 2

During the Q1, amendment activity represented 51% Our domestic bookings and new leases represented 49%. The big four carriers of AT and T, T Mobile, Verizon and DISH represented approximately 95% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue signed up during the quarter. Domestically, churn was in line with our prior quarter projections and our full year churn expectations remain the same as we provided last quarter, including $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 of Sprint merger related churn. Internationally, on a constant currency basis, Same power cash leasing revenue growth was 2.5% net, including 7.8% of churn or 10.3% on a gross basis. International leasing activity was good again with similar results to our solid 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Inflation based escalators also continued to make healthy Our organic growth, although these inflationary rates have begun to decline from their 2022 highs. In Brazil, our largest international market, we had another good quarter, although the impact of the previously discussed TIM agreement weighed on our Q1 same tower organic growth. This growth rate in Brazil was 4.7% on a constant currency basis, including the impact of 5.9% of churn. International churn remains elevated, but in line with expectations and our previously provided outlook. Excluding Oi Consolidation related churn, we believe 2023 will be the high watermark for international churn.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, our 2023 outlook does not include any churn assumptions related to the Oi consolidation other than associated with the TIM agreement. But if during the year we were to enter into any further agreements with other carriers related to the Oi consolidation that have an impact on the current year, we would adjust our outlook accordingly at that time. During the Q1, 78% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was The majority of non U. S. Dollar denominated revenue was from Brazil, with Brazil representing 15.5 Consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 12.4 percent of cash site leasing revenue excluding revenues from pass through expenses.

Speaker 2

Tower cash flow for the Q1 was $491,000,000 Our tower cash flow margins remain very strong as well With the 1st quarter domestic tower cash flow margin of 84.3 percent and an international tower cash flow margin of 69.9% or 91.8 percent excluding the impact of pass through reimbursable expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $459,300,000 The adjusted EBITDA margin was 68.7% in the quarter. Excluding the impact of revenues from pass through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 74%. Approximately 97% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the Q1. During the Q1, our services business had another strong quarter with $58,200,000 in revenue and $14,100,000 of segment operating profit.

Speaker 2

Our carrier customers remained busy deploying new 5 gs related equipment during the quarter And our services backlogs also remain healthy at quarter end. Adjusted funds from operations or AFFO in the first quarter was $341,700,000 AFFO per share was 3 over the Q1 of 2022. AFFO growth was hindered by increased interest rates, which are anticipated to impact growth rates throughout the year. During the Q1, we continued to invest in our portfolio, acquiring 14 communication sites for total cash consideration of $8,600,000 During the quarter, we also built 52 new sites. Subsequent to quarter end, we have purchased or are under agreement to purchase 66 sites all in our existing markets for an aggregate price of $63,700,000 We anticipate closing on these sites under contract by the end of the year.

Speaker 2

In addition to new towers, we also continue to invest in the land under our sites. During the quarter, we spent an aggregate of $11,600,000 to buy land and easements and to extend growing expense. At the end of the quarter, we owned or controlled for more than 20 years Land underneath approximately 70% of our towers and the average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control is approximately 36 years. With that, I'll now turn things over to Mark, who will provide an update on our balance sheet.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the quarter with $12,900,000,000 of total debt And $12,700,000,000 of net debt. Our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 6.9 times, the low end of our target range. Our 1st quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense remains at a strong 4.7 times. During and subsequent to quarter end, we borrowed and repaid certain amounts under our revolving credit facility.

Speaker 1

And as of today, We have a $595,000,000 outstanding balance under our $1,500,000,000 revolver. The current weighted average interest rate of our total outstanding debt is 3.1% with a weighted average maturity of approximately 3.8 years. The current rate on our outstanding revolver balance is 6.5%. The interest rate on 93% of our current outstanding debt is fixed. Remaining under our $1,000,000,000 stock repurchase plan.

Speaker 1

The company's shares outstanding at March 31, 2023 were $108,300,000 In addition, during the quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of 93,900,000 for $0.85 per share. And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a second quarter dividend of $0.85 per share payable on June 21, 2023 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 26, 2023. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 20% over the dividend paid in the year ago period and only represents 27% of our projected

Speaker 2

With that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff. Thanks, Mark, and good evening, everyone. The Q1 represented a very good start to 2023. Our team continued to execute at a very high level and we produced solid year over year growth in Each of our largest U. S.

Speaker 2

Customers remain busy and they contributed relatively equally to our organic leasing activity during the quarter. The focus of their activity was a balanced mix of adding equipment to sites in support of 5 gs through the deployment of new spectrum bands and infill and coverage expansion through brand new co locations. While we believe domestic activity in 2023 will fall below the peak levels In 2022, we expect our carrier customers to stay relatively busy with additional network deployment over the next several years For a number of reasons, some of AT and T's and Verizon C band licenses will not be cleared until later this year. The C band and 3.45 gigahertz licenses won by T Mobile have been delayed due to the lapse of the FCC Spectrum Authority. Dual band radios that our customers are planning to use in their deployments supporting 3.45 gigahertz and C band frequencies have just been approved by the FCC and dual band radio supporting C band and CBRS are still pending approval.

Speaker 2

Addish will be moving forward with additional co locations to meet their 2025 coverage requirements. We believe all of these developments will drive Continued development activity. Also encouraging about the prospects for future network development activity is the letter sent last week From CTIA to the White House, imploring the President to free up 1500 megahertz of additional mid band spectrum currently held by the Department of Defense and other governmental agencies. The request is for the spectrum to be made available on a full power License basis, which obviously would have positive implications for additional macro site activity. The request CTIA demonstrates the industry believes that more network resources will be necessary to handle increasing demand for volume, quality and new applications and to stay competitive with the rest of the world.

Speaker 2

Just as the last 20 years has demonstrated the need for continuous network Investment, we believe the future will be the same. We believe this will provide a continued positive environment for SBA. Internationally, we also had a solid quarter with continued steady organic leasing activity. During the Q1, 42% of new international business Signed up in the quarter came from amendments to existing leases and 58% came through new leases with particularly strong Contributions from Tanzania and South Africa. Brazil also had a strong quarter ahead of our internal expectations with contributions from each of the big three carriers in that market as well as good sized contributions from CPI based escalators.

Speaker 2

The integration of the GTS assets has gone very smoothly and these assets are performing well thus far. And we have seen a stabilization in the currency exchange rate that has contributed to our increased full year outlook. We remain excited about our opportunities in Brazil over Coming years as we build on our strong customer relationships and expect meaningful 5 gs related investments and continued expansion of wireless services throughout the country. Moving on now to our balance sheet, we remain in a very strong position. As we have stated before, we continue to be a preferred issuer in the debt markets we currently participate in with extremely good access to capital.

Speaker 2

With respect to the current interest rate environment, fortunately, we do not have any debt maturities until October 2024. Thus, we do not need to issue incremental debt today unless we see a compelling use of capital that we expect to be additive to long term shareholder value. We finished the quarter with 93% of our debt fixed and thus we are only modestly exposed to significant Great fluctuations. Our exposure to floating rate debt is also expected to decline further as we anticipate further paying down Our outstanding revolver balance throughout the year absent other more compelling capital allocation. While our first choice for capital allocation continues to be portfolio growth, today the market is pretty slow globally and lacking attractive opportunities.

Speaker 2

That of course can change quickly and we will be ready when it does. We ended the quarter with a net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 6.9 times, below our target range and giving us flexibility if we see value enhancing investment opportunities. As a result of our strong financial position and our optimism about our future, today we announced our 2nd quarter dividend, consistent with our Q1 dividend, which represents a nearly 20% year over year increase. This dividend represents only approximately 27% of our projected AFFO in our 2023 outlook, leaving us substantial capital for additional investment in portfolio growth, stock repurchases and revolver payments. Our financial condition remains very strong.

Speaker 2

Last quarter, I mentioned the 4th quarter ratings upgrade we received from Standard and Poor's to just below investment grade. Since our last earnings release, we received another ratings increase, this time from Moody's. These upgrades are indicative of the comfort the rating agencies have and the strength and stability of our underlying business. The future of our business remains bright. Our customers continue to have significant network needs And we are committed to supporting them and efficiently and effectively meeting those needs.

Speaker 2

I want to thank our customers and I want to thank our team members for the significant effort Put in by all to the contribution to our shared success. We look forward to sharing with you our progress as we move throughout the balance of 2023. And with that, Eric, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

And first, we will hear from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hi. Thanks for taking my question, guys. It looks like you did about $20,000,000 or $21,000,000 in leasing in the Q1. Your guidance implies maybe $51,000,000 or so for the rest of the year. Should we think of the deceleration from here being fairly linear?

Speaker 1

Or is it going

Speaker 2

to have a bit of

Speaker 1

a different shape to it?

Speaker 2

It should be fairly linear, Nick. The $21,000,000 that you mentioned is about right for the Q1, and I would expect it to be kind of a gradual step down throughout the year.

Speaker 1

Okay, okay, good. And then With respect to newbuilds overseas, it looks like the pay stepped down quite a bit versus what you were doing in 2022. So I was just wondering if that's kind of normal noise or if there's something more substantive that we should be cognizant of?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it's just a little bit of a slow getting out of the gate for the year. I don't think it's any more than that, and we're not Making any material adjustments to what we think we're going to do this year.

Speaker 1

Okay. Which countries are you most focused on from a new build perspective?

Speaker 2

Really attracts our largest markets. So I would say outside the U. S, it would be Brazil, South Africa, Tanzania, but we're we will build towers, I believe, in every country in which we We're currently operating this year. One thing, Nick, is that in Brazil, a little bit of that slowdown is With the merger that took place among the carriers, there's some focus on that. So that's put a little bit of a The slowdown on the new builds temporarily, but we would expect over time that will obviously come back and pick up.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. Well, thank you both.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Jonathan Atkin with RBC.

Speaker 2

Thank you. So given the comment that you made, Jeff, about I think it was Jeff, you made the comment about lack of Relative lack of compelling portfolio growth opportunities, wondered why stock buybacks didn't kind

Speaker 3

of rank higher on the pecking order in terms of capital allocation. And then secondly, as you think about U. S. Leasing specifically, just wondering if you can maybe give us some of Puts and takes around any carriers that you might see even ramping on your portfolio, the activity level

Speaker 2

Yes. In terms of the stock repurchases, John, they are definitely high on our priority list as we've Demonstrated over the years and they will continue to be. We just feel like at this moment in time that we need to let the Fed do their thing and get to the point where we see that interest rates have stopped going up because the rate that they're Increasing has a direct impact on the cost of our revolving credit facility. So we think during this particular period of time and given the rate that we're paying on the revolver that that is absolutely the best use of our temporary capital allocations. But rest assured, we will be buying material amounts of stock back Over the coming years.

Speaker 2

In terms of the rate of changes of the carriers and We don't want to get into too much detail about who's exactly doing what. And I think it's been fairly well broadcast that Who was spending the most money last year and who was the most active? T Mobile and DISH Really, we're the 2 big ones last year for the industry. Verizon and AT and T were busy. And That really hasn't changed a whole lot this year other than the relative that the aggregate amounts when you add it all up, What we expect for this year in terms of the volume of activity is going to be a little bit off from last year.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Walter Piecyk with LightShed.

Speaker 5

Thanks. I guess a follow-up and sorry for not knowing this, but what is the size of that loan? Meaning that when how much more do you need to pay down? Obviously, given the rate environment, understood why you would allocate

Speaker 2

The revolver is $5.95 Wall and absent some other use of capital allocation that will be paid off by the end of this year.

Speaker 5

Got it. So, I mean, who knows? The rates have been so volatile, obviously. But there's can we assume there's just no reason to keep any of it, meaning that like we should just assume 0 share repurchase until that's Done. And then when it's done, you kind of unleash on the share repurchase or is there other elements in your cap structure that I'm not remembering that would impact the Timing of when the share repurchase would kick back in?

Speaker 2

I think your intuition is directionally correct. I mean, right now, we're using dollars to pay back 6.5% debt. When that's paid down, we won't be earning 6.5% on our cash. So, we'll be looking for other uses.

Speaker 5

Yes. And then Similar, I guess, question on the dividend, not that I'm ever complaining about steady dividend growth because obviously that helps to broaden the investor base. But

Operator

I guess I have to

Speaker 5

ask the question like why increase the dividend to that amount if at all if It makes more sense to maybe get rid of that element of your debt.

Speaker 2

We're very confident that the debt, unless we spend additional money on something that will be obviously better, We'll be gone this year. So we didn't want to get off of a long term dividend trend that we're trying to establish here Just for the sake of less than a year.

Speaker 5

Understood. And just one last question. I think the cable companies have been, this is my opinion, I'm not stating this as fact, but Maybe have been delayed in building infrastructure, maybe because of some vendor issues associated with Some of the spectrum that they have. And I'm just curious and it seems like that may be coming, that might be loosening up going forward. I'm just curious if you can kind of characterize any relationships with how you're going to describe them based on asking about the cable companies In terms of as their subscribers and usage ramp, do you see an appetite for starting to add more assets on your towers?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think they will for sure, but they rely very heavily on outsourcing to Verizon's network, at least the Charter and Comcast. With that in mind, it's kind of their built in default system. What they have to do Around their other spectrum that they can develop is more limited. We are getting some business from them, but of course, It pales in comparison to the 4 traditional wireless service providers.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from David Arden with Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Hey, guys. Thanks so much. I guess, two questions, if I could. I guess, maybe Brendan, this is for We're all kind of looking at DISH exposure and based on your commentary and others, it feels like We're going to get to the mid June build out requirements. It's not clear how much beyond that we're going to go At DISH, so I guess two questions would be number 1, if we take The 15,000 cell sites that they said that they were going to need to build this first stage of getting their licenses all locked down And we multiply that by your percentage of domestic towers and we assume that you've gotten roughly that percentage.

Speaker 6

It would seem like that would be roughly A $40,000,000 or so number, is your kind of run rate annualized exposure to DISH? If you could kind of Validate that or tell me where I'm wrong, that'd be helpful. And then second, with respect to kind of the second half of the year, given kind of where DISH's finances And what have you assumed in the guidance exit rate heading into 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, David, first on your estimate of approximately how much they represent on a run rate. That's in the right Ballpark today, we still continue to have activity though with them. They are still signing up new business, not at the same pace they were a year ago. And so we'll exit the year at something obviously greater than that would be our expectation given the fact that we're constantly signing up new business. And then really it's a question of as they turn their sights towards their 2025 obligations, how much More will be required, and we are pretty confident based on our conversations with them that there will be a good bit more required.

Speaker 2

We'll have to see. But I think for the balance of this year, a lot of it is focused on deployment of a lot of what they've already signed up and We'll see how much more variable returns to 2025 objectives by the time we get to the end of the year. Yes, I would just add that I think that's unknown at this point as to how much of the 2025 obligations Will actually be booked or signed up in 2023.

Speaker 6

Right. I think that yes, that's a good point. And if I could follow-up real quick, maybe Jeff, just on your comments regarding Brazil Or maybe this is also Brendan. You mentioned that if there is some sort of new agreement that evolves as a function of the Oi Situation that you would change your outlook, obviously. Should the market be expecting that that is a likelihood?

Speaker 6

Or should the market be expecting that that's unlikely to happen in 2023? Sorry. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. The market should expect that it is more likely than not, but the market should take comfort in that. It will fall well within our estimated churn for Brazil that we've been putting forth now for Quite some time.

Operator

Perfect. All right. Great. Thanks, Jeff. And our next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks and good afternoon.

Speaker 7

Two questions if I could. First, just curious for your current thoughts on sustaining SBA's a la carte leasing framework for the domestic business and if you have any new thoughts on the possibility of someday pivoting to a structure around comprehensive leases and comprehensive MLAs? And then just secondly, if you can unpack within the Q1 churn, the amount that specifically came from the Sprint merger Decommissioning. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. On the a la carte versus the what I think our most commonly called holistic MLAs, we're very open to Whatever makes the most sense for our customers and for us. We have not we've done MLAs. We've not done the Holistic MLAs that provide a customer with kind of all you can eat equipment rights up to a specified Amount in exchange for some kind of pricing benefit, although we almost did back in 2013, 2014, we came very close to doing that. So I think you should take all that, Michael, as Kind of our view that it continues our kind of opportunistic way of running the business and we will do What's right for us and our customers at that time and that you should not assume that you won't ever see that kind of agreement from us in the future.

Speaker 2

And Mike, on the Sprint churn question in the Q1, dollars 6,500,000 of the churn,

Operator

And next we'll hear from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Speaker 8

Great. Multi part question for you, Jeff. Can you talk about bookings activity in terms of unsigned lease applications and how that's trending this quarter from like a year over year Then you had mentioned a number of drivers in terms of why we should still be bullish on 5 gs investments, including Verizon, AT and T C band not being cleared, T Mobile licenses, dual band radios and DISH, which of these is the largest potential driver for leasing for you over the next couple of years? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the Well, the biggest drivers will be the ones that I believe are most likely. It's going to be the dual band equipment. And obviously, we need to get the T Mobile licenses that they won and paid for Freed up out of the FCC. So those will be drivers that really get And we know that the C band spectrum will be clear by the end of this year, which just Particularly in AT and T's case, we'll coincide with, when they'll see good availability of the dual band 3.45 and C band radios.

Speaker 2

So all of those things I think are going to be positively impactful Late 2023, certainly into 2024. And because I answered your second question first. Backlog. The backlog. Yes, the backlog is probably down a little bit from where it was a year ago, but It's been holding steady for the last quarter or 2.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. And one follow-up. When do you expect to see lease applications for some of these dual band radios? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I would say second half of the year and then pick it up as you move through the year, the end of the year. I mean, they just I believe it might have even been just last week that the FCC approved by waiver the 3.45 and the C band tool radio equipment from Ericsson. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody.

Speaker 2

Hey, Rick.

Speaker 9

Thanks. I want to follow-up on Walt's question about the dividend. You mentioned that the long term trend in the dividend, when do you think dividend payout ratio caps off? And does that kind of imply 20% growth is here for a good foreseeable future subject to Board approval?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would think it's not going to be a steady 20%. I would think it will, as it has since we started the dividend, It will decline a little bit each year or so over time, so we can but while still increasing at What may be the REIT industry's fastest growing dividend, still growing at a very fast cliff, while we maintain A relatively low relative to our peers AFFO payout ratio. That's been the strategy from the start, Rick. Right.

Speaker 9

You guys have been a very good allocator of capital. Is there a cap, I guess, obviously, you've got some international properties that are probably not covered by the REIT exclusion in the U. S. Just kind of where is this a cap out like at 70%, 80% then you think?

Speaker 2

It should be much less than that. I mean, maybe way out long term, I would say it's closer to 45%, 50%, because ultimately when we're Through our NOLs, it will obviously match our net income, our taxable net income. So At this stage, the relationship of the taxable net income to AFFO is somewhere in that 40% to 50% range.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then you mentioned to David's question on the oil churn. Can you just remind us of what the total oil churn is that's still left to be addressed possibly And how that factored into what your total for sale churn number was?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Related specifically to the Oi consolidation risk, I think you're asking. The total exposure we've ballparked in the $25,000,000 to $35,000,000 range. We've through the Tim deal, that represents about $10,000,000 of churn that we've locked in. That's in our 2023 Guidance, there's nothing in there for anybody else at this point.

Speaker 2

None of those leases are up. So if it were to be added to this year through an agreement, it would be Pulling some of that forward, but the total range we still think is a fair estimate over time of 25 to 35 of which 10 is already in.

Speaker 9

And following from the on the Sprint churn, follow-up on Mike's question, dollars 6,500,000 was in the first quarter And $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 Sprint churn is in 20 30. Remind us of what's left out there and kind of the timeframe is what you expect coming in maybe in 2024, 2025, 20 26, just so we have Those carrier consolidation events kind of make sure that the market's got those similar models?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's pretty much the same as it's been in the past. Our big years are 2025 and 26 where we would estimate somewhere about $45,000,000 to $50,000,000 in each of those years. Next year, as we sit here today, we think will be a little bit lower in the $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 range. And then as I said, dollars 45 to $50,000,000 to the following 2 years. And then there's some marginal amount after that, probably $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 that kind of dribbles out into the future.

Speaker 2

So that's the full exposure of what's left after this year.

Speaker 9

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you so much.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Batya Levi with UBS.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. To the extent that you move forward with holistic deals, could you talk about if that would change your view on Leverage targets. And getting pretty close with investment grade and 2025 seems to be a year where you have a bunch of issues coming in. Can we expect you to put that as a top priority in near term?

Speaker 10

And then another question on the Activity, Verizon suggests that lighting up more C band spectrum is not going to require new antennas. What's your view of more C band spectrum coming in? Do you think that, that would create more activity? Thank you.

Speaker 2

On the spectrum that the CTI wrote to the White House about? Brand new spectrum? Yes. I mean, there are some antenna efficiencies that may Allow that to happen depending on the spectrum, but there are no radio efficiencies. There has to be new radios that are frequency They could be dual band or multi band, but they're not in any of the equipment today for the spectrum that has not yet been auctioned.

Speaker 2

So that's a real opportunity should that spectrum become available. In terms of our leverage, One of the reasons that we there are several reasons, but one of the reasons that we're using our Free cash flow to pay down the revolver is exactly to your point, Batya, which is to see how the Fed How they do in their war against inflation. If they succeed, we believe rates will come down and we will kind of go back exactly to the way we have done business for 20 years. If it looks like it is more permanent that we're going to be in a higher rate environment and inflation doesn't come under Control, then we will take a much more serious look at turning investment grade, which We're actually positioned to do fairly well and over a manageable period of time if that's in fact what we choose to do. And I think the macro world will play itself out in the next year and we will be able to tell you with much more specificity Exactly, which of those paths we're going to take.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you very much. Jeff, you said the M and A market was pretty slow. I wonder if you could just expand on that. Is it that there's just not much available or not much available at attractive And then I was wondering if you could just also, just expand on the infill comment and we've heard a lot of Well, there's stuff from the telcos on FWA.

Speaker 11

And I was just wondering if you're having more conversations about if they wanted to add Capacity for that, what that might mean for their build programs over the medium term?

Speaker 2

Yes. In terms of M and A, it's a combination of Both of those things, Simon. There is just not a lot that's being offered for sale or shopped around. And That's a global comment relative to past times. I think it's a combination of The interest rate environment, and I think it's a combination and added to that would be the it's a closing gap, but there's still a gap So there's really and we keep pretty close tabs on all opportunities out there.

Speaker 2

And there's really not a lot and even fewer that we would find attractive as evidenced by the fact that we didn't announce anything this quarter.

Speaker 11

And are you mostly looking in your existing markets or would you be open to new markets?

Speaker 2

Yes, we'd be open for the right opportunity similar to our past practices. We would Obviously, be careful and thoughtful, but we're not foreclosing new markets.

Speaker 11

Great. And anything on infill you could share on if they do decide to add capacity to help

Speaker 2

fix it? Yes. Our customers have all been very and they haven't Anything different to us. I've all been very careful to describe fixed wireless as a Product that really is just for excess capacity on the 5 gs Network. And I don't know if that will change or not.

Speaker 2

I mean, they're all well, the ones that are offering it More intentionally, are doing very well. So, I mean, you could see at some point that there is specific capital allocation Purely justified off of the fixed wireless, but I cannot tell you today that any activity that we're seeing is predominantly there because of fixed wireless.

Speaker 11

Right. And perhaps your comments around the CTIA study that might That some of that spectrum might be good for fixed wireless as well?

Speaker 2

Yes, it absolutely would be.

Operator

But you're

Speaker 2

going to have to deploy at a minimum radios for that and in most cases probably new antennas too.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.

Speaker 2

Thanks, guys. So 2 different subjects, if I can. First, there's been a lot of discussion of DISH. Credit markets are concerned with what happens there. Can you remind us where at DISH your contracts lie and if DISH were to Stop building, what your sort of remaining security looks like?

Speaker 2

And then second, completely different, South Africa, there's been a lot of power issues and growing power issues. Any changes in how you address this on your towers Interest and involvement in supporting the country in power and your carriers. Thank you. I'll take the South Africa question. And Brendan, you could take the dish question if you know the answer.

Speaker 2

We know it's at the Spectrum Holding level, Phil. I mean, that's probably about as best as we could. We can get back to you with an exact Legal entity, if you'd like, but it's with the entity that has the spectrum. So on the South Africa question. Power is an issue and there is a movement afoot by some carriers, particularly, well, I'm not going to name them specifically, but to outsource power on the towers.

Speaker 2

And it is something that we're looking at. The bigger issue in South Africa and one that we're working on And hopefully, we'll have something meaningful for both us and our customers in the future is security. And really don't want to spend a lot of money on Power supply solving those issues until you have the site facilities secured. And that involves a wide range of potential solutions, Phil, which we've got a lot of folks looking at and studying. And I think we'll be able to share more with you on that over the coming year.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Two questions, if you don't mind. For many years now in the U. S, a lot of the new towers that have been constructed have been done by Privately funded operators who had keep access to capital or signing leases with their carrier tenants with terms that you just were never going to match. And as a result, we haven't You developed a lot of towers in the U.

Speaker 1

S. For a number of years now. I'm curious what the market for a new site development In U. S. Looks like it would seem that with the carriers using higher frequencies than they've ever used before, there'd be some need for identification of the actual infrastructure.

Speaker 1

But I really don't know, so I'm curious whether that could be an opportunity for you. And then a separate topic, American Tower sold their Mexican fiber business, I'm citing that it really just ended up being a more difficult business than they thought. You've been pretty selective in terms of where you've invested in fiber in your international markets. I'm curious How those businesses are performing and whether maybe you're considering any portfolio grooming there as well? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, other than some assets which are very de minimis to the operation of Our data center in Brazil or our towers internationally, we don't have any fiber businesses internationally, Brett. So nothing really to divest there. In terms of new builds, over time, There should continue to be a steady, although I don't know if it will be growing number of new build opportunities. The new build market in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Has slowed somewhat as carriers have Focused more on amending their existing sites to roll out most efficiently They're 5 gs. And I will also tell you that the cost of newbuilds have gone up tremendously in the last 5 years. They may have doubled over that period of time. So I think That's providing a bit of a damper on activities as well.

Speaker 1

Are you still seeing those same private operators out there bidding for what's available or is that cooled down to some degree?

Speaker 2

Yes, the same names are still out there, but the volumes are well down. Thank you. Mhmm.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brendan Lynch with Barclays.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Jeff, you mentioned the dual band radios. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on that and what you're expecting from the carriers. Have they been holding back in anticipation of this?

Speaker 12

Or what do you really expect them to change starting in the second half once you get those applications?

Speaker 2

Yes. I don't want to Speak for our customers, but I will tell you that the literature that's available on this topic From organizations like Reading, for example, really go into quite a bit of detail as to what our customers' plans are With respect to those dual band radios, including one of our customers It is said to not deploy any of certain amounts of spectrum that they already have until those dual band radios are available. So I mean that's what I know. And I don't want to really kind of talk more about specific customer discussions. But I think if you look at that literature, you will see a picture that is very clear that there has been a holdback In terms of what our customers would otherwise do pending the availability of That type of equipment.

Speaker 2

And in particular, right now, the deployment is A separate radio and antenna for C band at 3.45, it will be a more efficient form function when they're combined. And to the extent that they weren't doing that in 1 truck roll with the 2 different radios, they would have the The efficiencies of a single truck roll. So that's a long winded way of saying, yes, we think it's going to Be a positive development when that equipment is available.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And maybe one balance sheet question for Brendan. Accounts receivable was flat quarter to quarter around $183,000,000 but it's up quite a bit relative to the trailing 12 month average prior to that.

Speaker 12

Is there anything specific that is causing that to occur?

Speaker 2

Not really, because we obviously focus on aged Accounts receivable, which are not we're doing fine on collections. So a lot of that's really just timing around some of the services contracts, Generally services related in terms of fluctuation, not leasing.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for the color. Sure.

Operator

Next question comes from David Guerno with Green Street.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Jeff, I wanted to talk about that CTIA report you mentioned. What do you think would happen to U. S. Macro tower new leasing activity If the SEC was unsuccessful and they couldn't get access to new bidband spectrum, do you think we'd see growth trail off from this 5% freight Pretty significantly once the C band spectrum is installed?

Speaker 2

Well, I think you'd see a tremendous amount of increased densification because that would be the only way to satisfy demand in a spectrum The question is, it's the age old question, who's going to pay for that And our customers are going to find a good enough return on investment. But I mean, if there's no more spectrum, David, It has to be self splitting and densification.

Speaker 4

Okay. And I guess Maybe to dive in the densification side, there's ample opportunity within your portfolio for that to happen, right? It wouldn't be fair to say during the 4 gs build out, the majority of that already occurred?

Speaker 2

I would say that to densify within the existing spectrum And to have no additional spectrum introduced into the system, if you were going to truly build out to the max To achieve the MAX 5 gs capabilities, I would tell you we have a lot of opportunity and a lot of room on our towers that Would need to be filled for our customers to achieve that.

Speaker 4

Okay. Maybe stepping outside the U. S. Then, it's been I guess it's been over a year since you guys set up operations in the Philippines. Could you just maybe update us on how many sites you own in the country now?

Speaker 4

And then I know there was a lot of MNO Tower Asset Sales. Are there any rumors of that on the horizon of maybe the MNO is looking to sell some more assets?

Speaker 2

Yes. We've got about 130 or so sites right now, but a bunch more in construction. So We would expect to end the year in the high 100s somewhere. Yes. And the MNOs have followed up.

Speaker 2

I mean, There are 2 real MNOs. There's 3, but 2 that really own assets over there. And those Customers have continued to hive off chunks of their portfolios. I'm not sure that they've done it Too many times, but I know there have been follow ups, I think, from each of the 2 big ones there, with additional asset sales.

Speaker 4

There's nothing else on the horizon that you're aware of?

Speaker 2

Not that we're aware of.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Eric Liu chow with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just curious for the 2 large U. S. Carriers that are already deploying C band today.

Speaker 13

Any kind of rough estimates on how many of your sites have been upgraded just to give us a sense for how long The growth there will be in the next few years?

Speaker 2

Below 50%.

Speaker 13

Okay, helpful. And I guess, when you think about the dual band radios, is there any real difference in your ability to monetize Amendments, whether they are separate CDAN and 3.45 radio or if it's a dual band, is it relatively Equivalent in terms of your amendment revenue?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would say it's roughly equivalent, although the form factor It's going to be less from a weight perspective in the dual band unified Piece of equipment.

Speaker 13

Got it. Makes sense. And just last for me, I know you've made a couple of smaller data center investments kind of studying The edge compute market, I guess, have you had any learnings from those or anything to report that maybe could Give you some confidence to get bigger in that space over time either through new development or M and A?

Speaker 2

Well, where we continue to grow is in the edge and the fiber regeneration facilities. We're now up somewhere between 4050 of those. So what we found, Eric, is that there's high demand for Quality locations where you have power and permitting and fiber. What really has not happened yet To our knowledge anywhere in the globe is the direct tie in at the edge at the cell site to the wireless networks, which When that comes, that will unleash tremendous amount of demand at the sell side. But we're learning a lot along the way through primarily real estate Demand as opposed to demand for this computing to be tied in to the wireless networks.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

And next we'll hear from Greg Williams with TD Cowen.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. First one is on services. Your site development came in a bit stronger. Should we expect that Also to sort of come down a little bit linearly.

Speaker 1

And second question is just on the dual band radio opportunity on network services. So if T Mobile and AT and T start deploying that. Could we see an uptick in network services above and beyond your guidance? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Greg, we would think that services will be declining slightly into the second half of the year, but I think at a lesser pace. I mean, you can see what our outlook looks like and where the Q1 ended up. It's only slightly ahead of that full year pace. So Probably similar in the second quarter, maybe slightly less in the second half of the year, but relatively flat. Yes.

Speaker 2

And when Greg, certainly that's going to benefit our services business.

Speaker 1

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And we have no further questions at this time.

Speaker 2

Great. Well, we want to thank everyone for joining us this evening. We appreciate your participation and we'll talk to you in a quarter. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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