SBA Communications Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • SBA reported Q1 GAAP site leasing revenues of $617.3 million (cash revenues $610.4 million), slightly above expectations, and raised its full-year 2023 guidance for most metrics.
  • Same-tower recurring cash leasing revenue grew 4.7% net (8.9% gross) versus Q1 2022, with domestic net growth of 5.1% and balanced bookings from the “Big Four” carriers.
  • Tower cash flow margins remained robust at 84.3% domestic and 69.9% international (91.8% ex pass-through), driving a Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin of 68.7% and AFFO of $341.7 million.
  • AFFO growth was hindered by rising interest rates, which are expected to impact cash flow growth throughout the year.
  • The board declared a Q2 cash dividend of $0.85 per share, up ~20% year-over-year and representing about 27% of projected AFFO, highlighting capital return strength.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
SBA Communications Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SBA Q1 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star then zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mark DeRussy, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Good evening and thank you for joining us for SBA's Q1 2023 earnings conference call. Here with me today are Jeff Stoops, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Brendan Cavanagh, our Chief Financial Officer. Some of the information we'll discuss on this call is forward-looking, including, but not limited to, any guidance for 2023 and beyond. In today's press release, in our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, May 1st, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statement that we may make. In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our investor relations website. With that, I will now turn it over to Brendan to discuss our Q1 results.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Thank you, Mark. Good evening. We started the year off with a solid Q1. Our results were slightly ahead of our expectations and allowed us to increase our full year 2023 outlook for most metrics. Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the Q1 were $617.3 million, and cash site leasing revenues were $610.4 million. Foreign exchange rates represented a benefit of approximately $600,000 when compared with our previously forecasted FX rate estimates for the quarter, and a headwind of $2.5 million when compared to the Q1 of 2022.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the Q1, which is calculated on a constant currency basis, was 4.7% net over the Q1 of 2022, including the impact of 4.2% of churn. On a gross basis, same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth was 8.9%. Domestic same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the Q1 of last year was 8.5% on a gross basis and 5.1% on a net basis, including 3.4% of churn. Domestic operational leasing activity or bookings, representing new revenue placed under contract during the Q1, remained steady and was similar to the Q4. We again saw balanced contributions from each of our largest customers.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

During the Q1, amendment activity represented 51% of our domestic bookings and new leases represented 49%. The big four carriers of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and DISH represented approximately 95% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue signed up during the quarter. Domestically, churn was in line with our prior quarter projections, and our full year churn expectations remain the same as we provided last quarter, including $25 -$30 million of Sprint merger-related churn. Internationally, on a constant currency basis, same tower cash leasing revenue growth was 2.5% net, including 7.8% of churn or 10.3% on a gross basis. International leasing activity was good again with similar results to our solid Q4. Inflation-based escalators also continued to make healthy contributions to our organic growth.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Although these inflationary rates have begun to decline from their 2022 highs. In Brazil, our largest international market, we had another good quarter. Although the impact of the previously discussed TIM agreement weighed on our Q1 same tower organic growth. This growth rate in Brazil was 4.7% on a constant currency basis, including the impact of 5.9% of churn. International churn remains elevated, but in line with expectations and our previously provided outlook. Excluding Oi consolidation related churn, we believe 2023 will be the high watermark for international churn. As a reminder, our 2023 outlook does not include any churn assumptions related to the Oi consolidation other than associated with the TIM agreement.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

If during the year we were to enter into any further agreements with other carriers related to the Oi consolidation that have an impact on the current year, we would adjust our outlook accordingly at that time. During the Q1, 78% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was denominated in U.S. dollars. The majority of non-U.S. dollar-denominated revenue was from Brazil, with Brazil representing 15.5% of consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 12.4% of cash site leasing revenue excluding revenues from pass-through expenses. Tower cash flow for the Q1 was $491 million.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Our tower cash flow margins remained very strong as well, with a Q1 domestic tower cash flow margin of 84.3% and an international tower cash flow margin of 69.9% or 91.8% excluding the impact of pass-through reimbursable expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the Q1 was $459.3 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 68.7% in the quarter.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Excluding the impact of revenues from pass-through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 74%. Approximately 97% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the Q1. During the Q1, our services business had another strong quarter with $58.2 million in revenue and $14.1 million of segment operating profit. Our carrier customers remained busy deploying new 5G related equipment during the quarter, and our services backlogs also remained healthy at quarter end. Adjusted funds from operations, or AFFO in the Q1, was $341.7 million. AFFO per share was $3.13, an increase of 5.7% over the Q1 of 2022. AFFO growth was hindered by increased interest rates, which are anticipated to impact growth rates throughout the year.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

During the Q1, we continued to invest in our portfolio, acquiring 14 communication sites for total cash consideration of $8.6 million. During the quarter, we also built 52 new sites. Subsequent to quarter end, we have purchased or are under agreement to purchase 66 sites, all in our existing markets, for an aggregate price of $63.7 million. We anticipate closing on these sites under contract by the end of the year. In addition to new towers, we also continue to invest in the land under our sites. During the quarter, we spent an aggregate of $11.6 million to buy land and easements and to extend ground lease terms.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

At the end of the quarter, we owned or controlled for more than 20 years the land underneath approximately 70% of our towers, and the average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control, is approximately 36 years. With that, I'll now turn things over to Mark, who will provide an update on our balance sheet.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the quarter with $12.9 billion of total debt and $12.7 billion of net debt. Our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 6.9 times below the low end of our target range. Our Q1 net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense remains at a strong 4.7 times. During and subsequent to quarter end, we borrowed and repaid certain amounts under our revolving credit facility. As of today, we have a $595 million outstanding balance under our $1.5 billion revolver. The current weighted average interest rate of our total outstanding debt is 3.1%, with a weighted average maturity of approximately 3.8 years. The current rate on our outstanding revolver balance is 6.5%.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

The interest rate on 93% of our current outstanding debt is fixed. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares of our common stock, and we currently have $505 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The company shares outstanding at March 31, 2023, were 108.3 million. In addition, during the quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $93.9 million, or $0.85 per share. Today, we announced that our board of directors declared a Q2 dividend of $0.85 per share, payable on June 21, 2023, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 26, 2023.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

This dividend represents an increase of approximately 20% over the dividend paid in the year-ago period and only represents 27% of our projected full year AFFO. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Thanks, Mark DeRussy, and good evening, everyone. The Q1 represented a very good start to 2023. Our team continued to execute at a very high level, and we produced solid year-over-year growth in each of our key metrics. Each of our largest U.S. customers remained busy, and they contributed relatively equally to our organic leasing activity during the quarter. The focus of their activity was a balanced mix of adding equipment to sites in support of 5G through the deployment of new spectrum bands and infill and coverage expansion through brand-new co-locations. While we believe domestic activity in 2023 will fall below the peak levels of activity in 2022, we expect our carrier customers to stay relatively busy with additional network deployment over the next several years for a number of reasons. Some of AT&T and Verizon C-band licenses will not be cleared until later this year.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

The C-band and 3.45 GHz licenses won by T-Mobile have been delayed due to the lapse of the FCC spectrum authority. Dual-band radios that our customers are planning to use in their deployments supporting 3.45 GHz and C-band frequencies have just been approved by the FCC, and dual-band radios supporting C-band and CBRS are still pending approval. Dish will be moving forward with additional co-locations to meet their 2025 coverage requirements. We believe all of these developments will drive multiyear continued development activity. Also encouraging about the prospects for future network development activity is the letter sent last week from CTIA to the White House, imploring the President to free up 1,500 megahertz of additional mid-band spectrum currently held by the Department of Defense and other governmental agencies.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

The request is for the spectrum to be made available on a full power licensed basis, which obviously would have positive implications for additional macro site activity. The request from CTIA demonstrates the industry believes that more network resources will be necessary to handle increasing demand for volume, quality, and new applications, and to stay competitive with the rest of the world. Just as the last 20 years has demonstrated the need for continuous network investment, we believe the future will be the same. We believe this will provide a continued positive environment for SBA. Internationally, we also had a solid quarter with continued steady organic leasing activity. During the Q1, 42% of new international business signed up in the quarter came from amendments to existing leases, and 58% came through new leases, with particularly strong contributions from Tanzania and South Africa.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Brazil also had a strong quarter, ahead of our internal expectations with contributions from each of the big three carriers in that market, as well as good-sized contributions from CPI-based escalators. The integration of the GTS assets has gone very smoothly. These assets are performing well thus far. We have seen a stabilization in the currency exchange rate that has contributed to our increased full-year outlook. We remain excited about our opportunities in Brazil over the coming years as we build on our strong customer relationships and expect meaningful 5G-related investments and continued expansion of wireless services throughout the country. Moving on now to our balance sheet, we remain in a very strong position. We have stated before, we continue to be a preferred issuer in the debt markets we currently participate in with extremely good access to capital.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

With respect to the current interest rate environment, fortunately, we do not have any debt maturities until October 2024. We do not need to issue incremental debt today unless we see a compelling use of capital that we expect to be additive to long-term shareholder value. We finished the quarter with 93% of our debt fixed, and thus we are only modestly exposed to significant interest rate fluctuations. Our exposure to floating rate debt is also expected to decline further as we anticipate further paying down our outstanding revolver balance throughout the year, absent other more compelling capital allocation. While our first choice for capital allocation continues to be portfolio growth, today the market is pretty slow globally and lacking attractive opportunities. That, of course, can change quickly, and we will be ready when it does.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

We ended the quarter with a net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 6.9 times, below our target range and giving us flexibility if we see value-enhancing investment opportunities. As a result of our strong financial position and our optimism about our future, today we announced our Q2 dividend, consistent with our Q1 dividend, which represents a nearly 20% year-over-year increase. This dividend represents only approximately 27% of our projected AFFO in our 2023 outlook, leaving us substantial capital for additional investment in portfolio growth, stock repurchases, and revolver payments. Our financial condition remains very strong. Last quarter, I mentioned the Q4 ratings upgrade we received from Standard & Poor's to just below investment grade. Since our last earnings release, we received another ratings increase, this time from Moody's.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

These upgrades are indicative of the comfort the rating agencies have in the strength and stability of our underlying business. The future of our business remains bright. Our customers continue to have significant network needs, and we are committed to supporting them in efficiently and effectively meeting those needs. I wanna thank our customers, and I wanna thank our team members for the significant effort put in by all to the contribution to our shared success. We look forward to sharing with you our progress as we move throughout the balance of 2023. With that, Eric, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

If you would like to ask a question on today's call, please press one, then zero. You may remove yourself from queue at any time by pressing one, then zero again. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers. Once again, to ask a question, please press one, then zero. First, we will hear from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Hi. Thanks for taking my question, guys. You know, it looks like you did about $20 million or $21 million in leasing in the Q1. Your guidance implies maybe $51 or so for the rest of the year. Should we think of the deceleration from here being fairly linear, or is it gonna have a bit of a different shape to it?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

It should be fairly linear, Nick. The $21 million that you mentioned is about right for the Q1, and, I would expect it to be kind of a gradual step down throughout the year.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Okay, good. With respect to new builds overseas, looks like the pace stepped down quite a bit versus what you were doing in 2022. I'm just wondering if that's kind of normal noise or if there's something more substantive that we should be cognizant of.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, I think it's just a little bit of a slow getting out of the gate for the year. I don't think it's any more than that. We're not making any, you know, material adjustments to what we think we're gonna do this year.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Which countries are you most focused on from a new build perspective?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Really, it tracks our largest markets. I would say outside the U.S., it would be, you know, Brazil, South Africa, Tanzania. But we will build towers, I believe, in every country in which we're currently operating this year.

Operator

Yeah. One thing, Nick, is that in Brazil, a little bit of that slowdown is with the merger that took place among the carriers. There's some focus on that.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

That's put a little bit of a slowdown on the new builds temporarily, but we would expect over time that will obviously come back and pick up.

Operator

Okay, great. Well, thank you both. Next, we'll hear from Jonathan Atkin with RBC.

Jonathan Atkin
Jonathan Atkin
Managing Director and Global Head of Communications Infrastructure Investment Research at RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Given the comment that you made, Jeff, about, I think it was Jeff, you made the comment about lack of, relative lack of compelling portfolio growth opportunities. Wondered why stock buybacks didn't kind of rank higher on the pecking order, in terms of capital allocation. Secondly, as you think about U.S. leasing specifically, just wondering if you can maybe give us some of the puts and takes around, any carriers that you might see even ramping on your portfolio, the activity level, and then those that might be kind of tapering and, what kind of, rate of change should we expect? Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. In terms of the stock repurchases, John, they are definitely high on our priority list as we've, you know, demonstrated over the years, and they will continue to be. We just feel like at this moment in time that we need to let the Fed do their thing, and get to the point where we see that interest rates have stopped going up. The rate that they're increasing has a direct impact on the cost of our revolving credit facility. We think during this particular period of time, and given the rate that we're paying on the revolver, that that is absolutely the best use of our temporary capital allocations. You know, rest assured, we will be, you know, buying material amounts of stock back over the coming years.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

In terms of the rate of changes of the carriers and, you know, we don't wanna get into too much detail about who's exactly doing what. I think it's been fairly well broadcast that, you know, who was spending the most money last year and who was the most active. You know, T-Mobile and Dish really were the two big ones last year for the industry. Verizon and AT&T were busy. You know, that really hasn't changed a whole lot this year other than that the aggregate amounts, when you add it all up, what we expect for this year, in terms of the volume of activity, is gonna be a little bit off from last year.

Jonathan Atkin
Jonathan Atkin
Managing Director and Global Head of Communications Infrastructure Investment Research at RBC Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Walt Piecyk with LightShed.

Walt Piecyk
Partner and TMT Analyst at LightShed Partners

Thanks. I guess a follow-up, and sorry for not knowing this, but, what is the size of that loan? Meaning like how much more you need to pay down, obviously, given the rate environment, understood why you would allocate-

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

The revolver is the revolver is $595, Walt Piecyk, and absent some other use of capital allocation, that'll be paid off by the end of this year.

Walt Piecyk
Partner and TMT Analyst at LightShed Partners

Got it. I mean, The rates have been so volatile, obviously. You know, can we assume there's just no reason to keep any of it? Meaning that, like, we should just assume 0 share repurchase until that's done, and then when it's done, you kind of unleash on the share repurchase, or is there other elements in your capital structure that I'm not remembering, that would impact the timing of when the share repurchase would kick back in?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I think your intuition is directionally correct. I mean, right now, we're using dollars to pay back 6.5% debt. When that's paid down, we won't be earning 6.5% on our cash, so we'll be looking for other uses.

Walt Piecyk
Partner and TMT Analyst at LightShed Partners

Yep. Similar, I guess, question on the dividend, not that I'm ever complaining about steady dividend growth, because obviously, that helps to broaden the investor base. I guess I have to ask the question, like, why increase the dividend to that amount, if at all, if it makes more sense to, you know, maybe get rid of that element of your, of your debt?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

You know, we're very confident that the debt, unless we spend, you know, additional money on something that will be, you know, obviously better, will be gone this year. We didn't wanna get off of a long-term dividend trend that we're trying to establish here just for the sake of, you know, less than a year.

Walt Piecyk
Partner and TMT Analyst at LightShed Partners

Understood. Just one last question. You know, I think the cable companies have been, this is my opinion, I don't, you know, I'm not stating this as fact, but maybe have been delayed in building infrastructure, maybe because of some vendor issues associated with some of the spectrum that they have. I'm just curious, and it seems like that may be coming, or that might be loosening up going forward. I'm just curious if you can kind of characterize any relationships with, you know, however you wanna describe them, but basically, I'm asking about the cable companies in terms of as their subscribers and usage ramp, do you see an appetite for starting to add more assets on your, on your towers?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, you know, I think, I think they will for sure. You know, they rely very heavily on outsourcing to Verizon's network, at least the Charter and Comcast. You know, with that in mind as kind of their built-in default system, you know, what they have to do around their other spectrum that they can develop is more limited. We are getting some business from them, but of course it pales in comparison to the 4, you know, traditional wireless service providers.

Michael Rollins
Managing Director at Citi Research

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from David Barden with Bank of America.

David Barden
David Barden
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, guys. Thanks so much. I guess two questions if I could. I guess maybe, Brendan, this is for you. The, you know, we're all kind of looking at DISH exposure and, you know, we're based on your commentary and others, it feels like, you know, we're gonna get to the, to the mid-June build-out requirement. It's not clear how much beyond that we're gonna go at DISH.

David Barden
David Barden
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

I guess two questions would be, number one, if we take the 15,000 cell sites that they said that they were gonna need to build this first stage of getting their licenses all locked down, and we multiply that by your percentage of domestic towers, and we assume that you've gotten roughly that percentage, it would seem like that would be roughly a $40 million or so number. Is your kind of run rate annualized exposure to DISH, if you could kinda validate that or tell me where I'm wrong, it'd be helpful. Second, with respect to kind of the H2 of the year, given kinda where DISH's finances stand, what have you assumed in the guidance exit rate, heading into 2024? Thank you.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Yeah, David, first on your estimate of approximately how much they represent on a run rate. That's in the right ballpark today. We still continue to have activity though with them. They are still signing up new business, not at the same pace they were a year ago. You know, we'll exit the year at something obviously greater than that, would be our expectation, given the fact that we're constantly signing up new business.

David Barden
David Barden
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Got it.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Really it's a question of, as they turn their sights towards their 2025 obligation, you know, how much more will be required. We are pretty confident based on our conversations with them, that there will be a good bit more required. You know, we'll have to see. I think for the balance of this year, a lot of it is focused on deployment of a lot of what they've already signed up and, you know, we'll see how much more they're able to turn to the 2025 objectives by the time we get to the end of the year.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. I would just add that I think that's unknown at this point as to how much of the 2025 obligations will actually be booked or signed up in 2023.

David Barden
David Barden
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Right. I think that, yeah, that's a good point. If I could follow up real quick, maybe Jeff, just on your comments regarding Brazil, or maybe this was also Brendan. The, you mentioned that if there is a, some sort of new agreement that evolves as a function of the Oi situation, that you would, you know, change your outlook, obviously. Should the market be expecting that that is a likelihood, or should the market be expecting that that's unlikely to happen in 2023? Sorry. Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. The market should expect that it is, more likely than not, but the market should take comfort in that it's, it will fall well within our estimated churn for Brazil that we've been putting forth now for quite some time.

David Barden
David Barden
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Perfect. All right. Great. Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins
Managing Director at Citi Research

Thanks, and good afternoon. Two questions if I could. First, just curious for your current thoughts on sustaining SBA's à la carte leasing framework for the domestic business, and if you have any new thoughts on the possibility of someday pivoting to a structure around comprehensive leases and comprehensive MLAs. Then just secondly, if you can unpack within the Q1 churn, the amount that specifically came from the Sprint merger decommissioning. Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. On the à la carte versus the what I think are most commonly called holistic MLAs, you know, we're very open to whatever makes the most sense for our customers and for us. We've done MLAs. We've not done the holistic MLAs that provide a customer with kind of all you can eat equipment rights up to a specified amount in exchange for some kind of, you know, pricing benefit. Although we almost did, back in 2013, 2014, we came very close to doing that.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I think you should take all that, Michael, as kind of our view that it continues our kind of opportunistic way of running the business, and we will do what's right for us and our customers at that time, and that you should not assume that you won't ever see that kind of agreement from us in the future.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Mike, on the Sprint churn question in the Q1, six and a half million dollars of the churn, incremental churn to Q1, was related to Sprint.

Michael Rollins
Managing Director at Citi Research

Thanks.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Next, we'll hear from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Brandon Nispel
Brandon Nispel
Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Great. Multi-part question for you, Jeff. Can you talk about bookings activity in terms of unsigned lease applications and how that's trending this quarter from, like, a year-over-year perspective? You had mentioned a number of drivers in terms of why we should still be bullish on 5G investments, including Verizon, AT&T C-band not being cleared, T-Mobile licenses, dual-band radios, and DISH. Which of these is the largest potential driver for leasing for you over the next couple of years? Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, I think the. Well, the biggest drivers will be the ones that I believe are most likely. It's gonna be the dual band equipment and, you know, obviously, we need to get the T-Mobile licenses that they want and paid for, freed up out of the FCC. Those will be drivers that really get to. And we know that the C-band spectrum will be clear by the end of this year, which just, you know, particularly in AT&T's case, will coincide with when they'll see good availability of the dual band 3.45 and C-band radios. All of those things, I think, are gonna be positively impactful, you know, late 2023, certainly into 2024. Because I answered your second question first-

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Backlog.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Oh, the backlog. Yeah, the backlog is probably down a little bit from where it was a year ago, but it's been holding steady for the last quarter or two.

Brandon Nispel
Brandon Nispel
Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Great. Thanks. One follow-up. When do you expect to see lease applications for some of these dual-band radios? Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I would say H2 of the year, and then pick it up as you move through the year, the end of the year. I mean, they just I believe it might have even been just last week that the FCC approved by waiver the 3.45 and the C-band dual radio equipment from Ericsson.

Brandon Nispel
Brandon Nispel
Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Got it. Thank you.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Next, we'll hear from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James

Thanks, Jeff. Morning, everybody.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Hey, Ric.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James

Hey. I wanna follow up on Walt's question about the dividend. You mentioned that the long-term trend in the dividend. Where do you think dividend payout ratio caps off, and does that kind of imply 20% growth is here for a good foreseeable future, subject to board approval?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, I would think it's not gonna be a steady 20%. I would think it will, as it has since we started the dividend, it will decline a little bit each year or so over time, so while still increasing at what may be the REIT industry's fastest growing dividend, still growing at a very fast clip while we maintain a relatively low relative to our peers AFFO payout ratio. I mean, that's been the strategy from the start, Ric.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James

Right. You guys have been a very good allocator of capital. Is there a cap, I guess? Obviously, you've got some international properties that are probably not covered by the the REIT exclusion in the US then. Is there a cap out, like at 70%, 80% then, do you think?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

It should be much less than that. I mean, maybe way out long term, I would say it's closer to 45%-50%. You know, ultimately, when we're through our NOLs, it will obviously match our net income, our taxable net income. At this stage, the relationship of the taxable net income to AFFO is somewhere in that 40%-50% range.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James

Okay. Then you mentioned to David's question on the Oi churn. Can you just remind us of what the total Oi churn is that's still left to be addressed possibly, and how that factored into what your total Brazil churn number was?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Re-related specifically to the Oi consolidation risk, I think you're asking, the total exposure we've ballparked in the $25 -$35 million range. we've Through the TIM deal, that represents about $10 million of churn that we've locked in. That's in our 2023 guidance. There's nothing in there for anybody else. At this point, none of those leases are up, so if it were to be added to this year through an agreement, it would be pulling some of that forward. But the total range, we still think is a fair estimate over time of $25 -$35 million, of which $10 million is already in.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James

Right. A follow on from me on the Sprint churn, follow up on Mike's question. $6.5 million was in the Q1. $25-$30 million Sprint churn is in 2023. Remind us of what's left out there and kind of the timeframe as what you expect coming in maybe in 2024, 2025, 2026, just so we have those carrier consolidation events, kind of make sure that the market's got those similar models.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Yeah. It's pretty much the same as it's been in the past. Our big years are 2025 and 2026, where we would estimate somewhere about $45-$50 million in each of those years. Next year, as we sit here today, we think we'll be a little bit lower in the $15-$20 million range. Then as I said, $45 -$50 million to the following two years. Then there's some marginal amount after that, probably $10 -$20 million that kind of dribbles out into the future. So that's the full exposure of what's left after this year.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you, stay well.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Batya Levi with UBS.

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Great. Thank you. To the extent that you move forward with holistic deals, could you talk about if that would change your view on leverage targets? Getting pretty close with investment grade, and 25 seems to be a year where you have a bunch of issues coming in. Can we expect you to put that as a top priority in the near term? Another question on the activity. Verizon suggests that lighting up more C-band spectrum is not going to require new antennas. What's your view of more C-band spectrum coming in? Would you think that that would create more activity? Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

On the spectrum that the CTIA wrote to the White House about?

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Um-

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

A new, brand-new spectrum? Yeah, I mean, there's some antenna efficiencies that may allow that to happen depending on the spectrum, but there are no radio efficiencies. There has to be new radios that are frequency specific. They could be dual-band or multi-band, but they're not in any of the equipment today for the spectrum that has not yet been auctioned. That's a real opportunity should that spectrum become available. In terms of our leverage, you know, one of the reasons that there are several reasons, but one of the reasons that we're using our free cash flow to pay down the revolver is, you know, exactly to your point, Batya, which is to see how the Fed, you know, how they do in their war against inflation.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

If they succeed, we believe rates will come down, and we will kind of go back exactly to the way we have done business for 20 years. If it looks like it is more permanent that we're going to be in a higher rate environment and inflation doesn't come under control, then we, you know, we'll take a much more serious look at turning investment grade, which we're actually positioned to do, you know, fairly well, and over a manageable period of time, if that's in fact what we choose to do. I think the macro world will play itself out in the next year, and we will be able to tell you with much more specificity exactly which of those paths we're going to take.

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Got it. Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you very much. Jeff, you said the M&A market was pretty slow. I wonder if you could just expand on that. Is it that there's just not much available or not much available at attractive prices? I was wondering if you could just also just expand on the infill comment. We've heard a lot of bullish stuff from the telcos on FWA, and I was just wondering if you're having more conversations about if they wanted to add capacity for that, what that might mean for their build programs over the medium term.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. In terms of M&A, it's a combination of both of those things, Simon. There's just not a lot that's being, you know, offered for sale or shopped around. That's a global comment, you know, relative to past times. I think it's a combination of the interest rate environment, added to that would be the closing gap, but there's still a gap between, you know, buyer and seller expectations. You know, there's really, and we keep pretty close tabs on all opportunities out there's really not a lot, and even fewer that we would find attractive as evidenced by the fact that, you know, we didn't announce anything this quarter.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Are you mostly looking in your existing markets, or would you be open to new markets?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, we'd be open, you know, for the right opportunity, similar to our past practices. We would, you know, obviously be careful and thoughtful, but we're not foreclosing new markets.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Anything on infill you could share on, you know, if they do decide to add capacity to help their peers?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. The, you know, our customers have all been very, and they haven't said anything different to us, have all been very careful to describe fixed wireless as a product that really is just for excess capacity on the 5G network. I don't know if that'll change or not. I mean, they're all, you know. Well, the ones that are offering it, you know, more intentionally are doing very well. I mean, you could see at some point that there is specific capital allocation purely, you know, justified off of a fixed wireless. I cannot tell you today that any activity that we're seeing is predominantly there because of fixed wireless.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Right. Perhaps your comments around the CTIA study, that might, you know, be applied, that some of that spectrum might be good for fixed wireless as well.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Oh, yeah, it absolutely would be. You're gonna have to deploy at a minimum radios for that and in most cases, probably new antennas too.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Great. Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Cusick with J.P. Morgan.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Thanks, guys. Two different subjects, if I can. First, there's been a lot of discussion of DISH. Credit markets are concerned with what happens there. Can you remind us where at DISH your contracts lie? If DISH were to stop building, what your sort of remaining security looks like. Second, completely different. South Africa, there's been a lot of power issues and growing power issues. Any changes in how you address this on your towers interest and involvement in supporting the country and power and your carriers? Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I'll take the South Africa question. Brendan, you could take the DISH question if you know the answer. We know it's at the spectrum holding level, Phil. I mean, that's probably about as best as we could. We can get back to you with the exact legal entity, if you'd like. It's with the entity that has the spectrum. On the South Africa question, you know, power is an issue, and there is a movement afoot by some carriers, particularly, well, I'm not gonna name them specifically, but to outsource power on the towers. It is something that we're looking at.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

The bigger issue in South Africa and one that we're working on and hopefully will have something meaningful for both us and our customers in the future is security. You really don't wanna spend a lot of money on power supplies, solving those issues until you have the site facilities secured. That involves a wide range of potential solutions, Phil, which we've got a lot of folks looking at and studying. I think we'll be able to share more with you on that over the coming year.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Thanks. Two questions, if you don't mind. You know, for many years now in the U.S., a lot of the new towers that have been constructed have been done by privately funded operators who had cheap access to capital or signing leases with their carrier tenants with terms that you just were never gonna match. As a result, we just haven't seen you develop a lot of towers in the U.S. for a number of years now. I'm curious what the market for new site development in the U.S. looks like. It would seem that with the carriers using higher frequencies than they've ever used before, there'd be some need for densification of the actual infrastructure. But I really don't know. I'm curious whether that could be an opportunity for you.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

On a separate topic, American Tower sold their Mexican fiber business, citing that it really just ended up being a more difficult business than they thought. You've been pretty selective in terms of where you've invested in fiber in your international markets. I'm curious how those businesses are performing and whether maybe you're considering any portfolio trimming there as well. Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Other than some assets which are very de minimis to the operation of our data center in Brazil or our towers internationally, we don't have any fiber businesses internationally, Brett Feldman. Nothing, nothing really to divest there. In terms of new builds, you know, over time, there should continue to be a steady, although I don't know if it will be growing, number of new build opportunities. The new build market in the U.S. has slowed somewhat as carriers have, you know, focused more on amending their existing sites to roll out most efficiently their 5G. I will also tell you that the costs of new builds have gone up tremendously in the last five years. They, they may have doubled over that period of time.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I think that's providing a bit of a damper on activities as well.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Are you still seeing those same private operators out there bidding for what's available, or has that cooled down to some degree?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

You know, the same names are still out there, but the volumes are well down.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brendan Lynch with Barclays.

Mark DeRussy
Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA Communications

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Jeff, you mentioned the dual-band radios. I was wondering if you'd give us a little bit more color on that and what you're expecting from the carriers. Have they been holding back in anticipation of this, or what do you really expect them to change starting in the H2 once you get those applications?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. I don't want to speak for our customers, but I will tell you that the literature that's available on this topic from organizations like Light Reading, for example, really go into quite a bit of detail as to what our customers' plans are with respect to those dual-band radios, including one of our customers is said to, you know, not deploy any of certain amounts of spectrum that they already have until those dual-band radios are available. I mean, that's what I know. I don't wanna, you know, really kinda talk more about specific customer discussions.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I think if you look at that literature, you will see a picture that is very clear that there has been a holdback in terms of what our customers would otherwise do pending the availability of that type of equipment. And in particular, you know, right now, the deployment is a separate radio and antenna for C-band and 3.45. It'll be a more efficient form function when they're combined. And to the extent that, you know, they weren't doing that in one truck roll with the two different radios, they would have the efficiencies of, you know, a single truck roll. That's a long-winded way of saying, yeah, we think it's going to be a positive development when that equipment is available.

Brendan Lynch
Brendan Lynch
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. Maybe one balance sheet question for Brendan. Accounts receivable was flat quarter to quarter around $183 million, but it's up quite a bit relative to the trailing 12-month average prior to that. Is there anything specific that is causing that to occur?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

No, not really. 'Cause we obviously focus on aged accounts receivable, which we're doing fine on collections. A lot of that's really just timing around some of the services contracts, generally services related in terms of fluctuation, not leasing.

Brendan Lynch
Brendan Lynch
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Great. Thanks for the color.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

Next question comes from David Guarino with Green Street.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Thanks. Hey, Jeff, I wanna talk about that CTIA report you mentioned. What do you think would happen to U.S. macro tower new leasing activity if the FCC was unsuccessful and they couldn't get access to new mid-band spectrum? Do you think we'd see growth trail off from this 5% rate pace pretty significantly once the C-band spectrum is installed?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Well, I think you'd see a tremendous amount of increased densification because that would be the only way to satisfy demand in a spectrum-constrained environment. The question is, you know, it's the age-old question. You know, who's gonna pay for that? Are our customers going to find a good enough return on investment? I mean, if there's no more spectrum, David, it has to be cell splitting and densification.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Okay. I guess, maybe diving into the densification side, there's ample opportunity within your portfolio for that to happen, right? It wouldn't be fair to say during the 4G build-out, the majority of that already occurred?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

I would say that to densify within the existing spectrum, and to have no additional spectrum introduced into the system, if you were going to truly build out to the max to achieve the max 5G capabilities, I would tell you we have a lot of opportunity and a lot of room on our towers that would need to be filled for our customers to achieve that.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Maybe stepping outside the U.S. then. I guess it's been over a year since you guys set up operations in the Philippines. Could you just maybe update us on how many sites you own in the country now? I know there was a lot of MNO tower asset sales. Are there any rumors of that on the horizon of maybe the MNOs looking to sell some more assets?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Yeah. We've got about 130 or so sites right now, but a bunch more in construction. We would expect to end the year in the high 100s somewhere.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, the MNOs have followed up. I mean, there are two real MNOs there. There's three, but two that really own assets over there. Those customers have continued to hive off chunks of their portfolios. I'm not sure that they've done it too many times, but I know there have been follow-ups, I think, from each of the two big ones there, with additional asset sales.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

nothing else on the horizon that you're aware of?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Not that, not that we're aware of.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just curious for the 2 large U.S. carriers that are already deploying C-band today, any kind of rough estimates on how many of your sites have been upgraded, just to give us a sense for how long the growth scale will be in the next few years?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Below 50%.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. Helpful. I guess, when you think about the dual-band radios, is there any real difference in your ability to monetize amendments, whether, you know, they are a separate C-band and 3.45 radio or if it's a dual-band? Is it relatively equivalent in terms of your amendment revenue?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah, I would say it's roughly equivalent. Although the form factor, is going to be less from a weight perspective in the dual-band, unified, piece of equipment.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Got it. Makes sense. Just last for me, I know you've made a couple of smaller data center investments kind of studying the edge compute market, I guess. Have you had any learnings from those or anything to report that maybe could give you some confidence to get bigger in that space over time, just through new development or M&A?

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Where we've continued to grow is in the edge and the fiber regeneration facilities. We're now up to somewhere between 40 and 50 of those. What we've found, Eric, is that there's high demand for quality locations where you have power and permitting, and fiber. You know, what really has not happened yet, to our knowledge anywhere in the globe, is the direct tie-in at the edge, at the cell site to the wireless networks, which, you know, when that comes, that will unleash, you know, tremendous amount of demand at the cell site. We're learning a lot along the way through, you know, primarily real estate, demand as opposed to demand for this computing to be tied in to the wireless networks.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Greg Williams with TD Cowen.

Greg Williams
Greg Williams
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. First one's on services. You know, your site development came in a bit stronger. Should we expect that also to sort of come down a little bit linearly? Second question is just on the dual-band radio opportunity on network services. If, you know, T-Mobile and AT&T start deploying that, could we see an uptick in network services above and beyond your guidance? Thanks.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA Communications

Greg, we would think that services will be declining slightly into the H2 of the year, but I think at a lesser pace. I mean, you can see what our outlook looks like and where the Q1 ended up. It's only slightly ahead of that full-year pace. Probably similar in the Q2, maybe slightly less in the H2 of the year, but relatively flat.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Yeah. When, Greg, you know, certainly that's going to benefit our services business.

Greg Williams
Greg Williams
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time.

Jeff Stoops
Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA Communications

Great. Well, we wanna thank everyone for joining us this evening. We appreciate your participation, and we'll talk to you in a quarter. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
Analysts
    • Batya Levi
      Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS
    • Brandon Nispel
      Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets
    • Brendan Lynch
      Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • David Barden
      Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
    • David Guarino
      Managing Director at Green Street
    • Eric Luebchow
      Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
    • Greg Williams
      Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen
    • Jonathan Atkin
      Managing Director and Global Head of Communications Infrastructure Investment Research at RBC Capital Markets
    • Michael Rollins
      Managing Director at Citi Research
    • Nick Del Deo
      Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson
    • Ric Prentiss
      Managing Director and Head of Telecommunication Services and Media Equity Research at Raymond James
    • Simon Flannery
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley
    • Walt Piecyk
      Partner and TMT Analyst at LightShed Partners
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