Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 26, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q2 2023 Analyst Conference Call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Zika Chopra, Deputy Head of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us for our Q2 2023 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website atdb.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our material.

Speaker 1

With that, let me hand over to Christian.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Silke, and a warm welcome also from my side. It's a pleasure to be discussing our 2nd quarter and first half results with you today. These results provide a vital perspective of the progress we are making towards our objectives. For me, a few key points stand out. First, we have strong growth momentum.

Speaker 2

Revenues in the first half year were up 8% to €15,100,000,000 putting the upper end of our guidance range of €28,000,000,000 to €29,000,000,000 within reach. We also captured net inflows of €28,000,000,000 across the Private Bank and Asset Management. We are reaping the benefits of a complementary and well balanced earnings mix. We are delivering strong growth in our Private Bank and corporate bank franchises and resilience in key areas of our investment bank. 2nd, we have proven our earnings power.

Speaker 2

We generated profit before tax of €3,300,000,000 in the 1st 6 months, up 2% over last year and the highest first half since twenty eleven after absorbing more than €1,000,000 in non operating costs, including restructuring related to operational efficiencies. Excluding these non operating costs, pretax profit would have been €4,000,000,000 21% higher than in the first half of twenty twenty two on a comparable basis. Our post tax RoTE was 6.8% and would have been above 9%, excluding non operating costs and with bank levies Apportioned equity across the year, very close to our 2025 target of above 10%. 3rd, our balance sheet and capital position are resilient. Our CET1 ratio has risen to 13.8%, driven by strong organic capital generation.

Speaker 2

We have sound liquidity and a solid deposit base, which we slightly increased in the 2nd quarter. 4th, we are delivering on our promise to distribute capital to shareholders. As announced yesterday evening, We have received supervisory approval to start share buybacks of up to €450,000,000 50% higher than last year. Together with the dividend we paid in respect of 2022, we aim to distribute more than €1,000,000,000 of capital to shareholders this year. This will bring total distributions across 20222023 to around €1,750,000,000 And of course, it is our clear aim to continue on that trajectory in 2024 as part of our €8,000,000,000 distribution promise.

Speaker 2

5th, we are accelerating the execution of our Global House Bank strategy. We are already making good progress in driving operational efficiency, boosting capital efficiency and outperforming our revenue growth target. Let me now discuss the franchise strengths across our businesses In the first half year on slide 2, starting with the Corporate Bank. We delivered 30% revenue growth with strong momentum across all business areas. With non interest expenses up 6%, Operating leverage in this business was 24% in the first half of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 2

That enabled us to deliver An RoTE of nearly 17%. In the Investment Bank, we demonstrated The stability of our financing business and resilience of our FICC franchise overall after the exceptionally strong levels of the same period of last year. And we are further diversifying our investment bank by strengthening our O and A business both organically and inorganically. We announced the acquisition of Numis and seized opportunities to add revenue generators through selective hiring. Turning to the Private Bank.

Speaker 2

We grew revenues by 10% In the first half of twenty twenty three, these are the best 6 months revenues since the formation of the private bank with double digit year on year growth in both the first and second quarters of the year. We also generated net inflows of €13,000,000,000 in the first half year. This helped us grow assets under management by €23,000,000,000 to €541,000,000,000 during the 1st 6 months of 2023. Finally, we also grew volumes in Asset Management. We captured net asset inflows of €15,000,000,000 or €19,000,000,000 ex cash driven by passive and alternatives both focus areas for us.

Speaker 2

That enabled us to grow assets under management by €38,000,000,000 to €859,000,000,000 in the first half year. And these businesses are strongly complementary, which drives sustained revenue growth as we show on Slide 3. Over the past 2 years, we have seen steady growth in first half revenues. We see ourselves well on track to deliver at the higher end of our full year guidance to of €28,000,000,000 to €29,000,000,000 We achieved this despite significant shifts In the operating environment over the past 24 months, as a strong post COVID recovery in 2021 gave way to inflationary headwinds and economic uncertainties driven by the war in Ukraine. We maintain Our growth trajectory in a changing environment, thanks in a good measure to a complementary business portfolio.

Speaker 2

As mentioned, we delivered strong revenue growth in our corporate and private banks, which took full advantage of rising interest rates and new client mandates. We expect that momentum to continue into the second half of twenty twenty three. This, together with the stable contribution From the Investment Bank's financing business more than offset normalizing conditions in our more market sensitive businesses. That reflects a well balanced revenue mix in line with our global house bank ambition. As we anticipate some normalization of interest rates, we aim to further complement our earnings mix.

Speaker 2

We are making investments in capital light businesses, including Origination and Advisory and Wealth Management, together with technology enabled high return businesses in the corporate bank. Finally, Across all business, we continue to make progress towards our sustainability targets. We added ESG financing and investment volumes of €1,000,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, bringing our cumulative total to €254,000,000,000 since January 2020. And our business growth has further increased our underlying earnings power as we set out on Slide 4. As I said earlier, our first half profit before tax of €3,300,000,000 was up 2% compared to the first half of 2022.

Speaker 2

And as you can see, pre provision profit was up 8% at €4,000,000,000 after absorbing significantly higher non operating costs than in the prior year. Non operating costs were €744,000,000 comprising litigation charges to settle mainly long standing matters and restructuring and severance as we realize operational efficiencies. Revenues were up 8%, while adjusted costs, which exclude non operating items, were up only 2%, below inflation despite continued investments in our platform. And with prorated bank levies, adjusted operating leverage was 5%. This earnings power is reflected in the progress we are making on our key target ratios.

Speaker 2

Post tax RoTE, Excluding non operating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally over the 4 quarters of the year would be over 9% in the first half of twenty twenty three, while our cost income ratio would be 67%. In other words, we are on a clear path towards achieving our 2025 targets. Before I hand over to James, a few words on the progress we are making to accelerate delivery of our Global House Bank strategy As we discussed with you in April on Slide 5, we aim to accelerate delivery on 3 dimensions: Operational efficiency, capital efficiency and revenue growth, where we aim to outperform our original targets. We have already made progress in all of these. Turning first to operational efficiencies.

Speaker 2

We raised our ambition for incremental efficiencies from €2,000,000,000 to €2,500,000,000 as we said. We have already delivered more than €600,000,000 through a range of measures such as branch closures in the private bank, Standardizing loan processing in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank and simplifying our technology infrastructure. We anticipate €300,000,000 of savings by 2025 from the successfully completed migration of €12,000,000 Postbank clients Onto the Deutsche Bank technology platform. And we expect more than €100,000,000 from the announced redundancies in senior non client facing roles As more than 80% of affected staff have either been informed or left the platform. In other words, a total of around €1,000,000,000 in savings are either already achieved or are expected from measures now implemented.

Speaker 2

We have a series of other measures in flight. For example, streamlining our mortgage business and further branch closures in the private bank, Reengineering more front to back processes in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank, further application decommissioning and additional workforce measures. These are some examples of a wider program of initiatives underway. Based on our progress on these and realized achievements so far, we reaffirm our €2,500,000,000 goal. In respect of capital efficiencies, as you know, our aim is to reduce risk weighted assets by €15,000,000,000 to €20,000,000,000 by 2025 relative to our baseline assumptions with the modest revenue impact.

Speaker 2

In the Q2, we accelerate securitization transactions, which delivered RWA relief of around €3,000,000,000 In addition, credit risk RWAs were reduced as part of the trade finance and lending optimization efforts. Overall, we proved our revenue strength with the business delivering revenue growth, while our FX adjusted RWAs decreased by €5,000,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter. We have further optimization measures in preparation for the 2nd half of twenty twenty three, including securitization of consumer finance loans and reductions in sub hurdle lending. All this gives us confidence that we will deliver on our capital optimization goals. Turning finally to revenue growth.

Speaker 2

We are fully on track to outperform on our revenue growth targets of 3.5% to 4.5% compound annual growth against 2021 levels. On a last 12 month basis, we delivered compound annual revenue growth versus 2021 of 7.5%, well ahead of their target with revenue growth of 8% in the first half of this year. We expect the interest rate environment to continue to drive sustainable performance in our stable businesses. We anticipate added momentum From our organic and inorganic investments, including the Numis acquisition or the new partnership with Lufthansa and Miles and More and from hiring of some 50 senior O and A bankers. This enables us to take advantage Of an expected pickup in corporate finance activity, we are already seeing signs of this in our backlog.

Speaker 2

We have also hired around 30 wealth managers. And we expect the growth in our assets under management and net asset inflows to drive fee income in future quarters. To sum up, we are delivering revenue and business growth of a strong franchise. Our well balanced Complementary business mix enables us to drive continued revenue momentum. We are increasing our earnings power year by year And we see a clear path to achieving our 2025 profitability targets, among others, an RoTE of larger than 10% in 2025.

Speaker 2

And we are delivering on 2 key promises: distributing €8,000,000,000 to shareholders and accelerating execution of our Global House Bank strategy. With that, let me hand over to James.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 7 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined a strong revenue momentum in our well balanced business mix, which resulted in revenue growth of well above 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target. The strong revenue growth combined with ongoing cost discipline led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost income ratio to 73% in the 1st 6 months Compared to 2022, despite significantly higher non operating expenses in the Q2, which we would not expect to repeat in the same magnitude in coming periods.

Speaker 3

Our capital position has remained strong and our CET1 ratio of 13.8 Our liquidity metrics remain strong. The LCR was 137%, above our target of around 130%. And in the Q2, the net stable funding ratio was 119%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets. With that, let me turn to the 2nd quarter highlights on Slide 8.

Speaker 3

Group revenues were €7,400,000,000 up 11% on the Q2 of 2022. Non interest expenses were €5,600,000,000 up 15% year on year. The increase was largely driven by the €655,000,000 of non operating expenses in the quarter compared to €102,000,000 in the prior year period. Non operating expenses this quarter included €260,000,000 of restructuring and severance provisions to accelerate the execution of our Global House Bank strategy, primarily through a reduction in non client facing roles and optimization of our mortgage platform. To settle a number of long standing litigation matters, we incurred litigation charges of €395,000,000 as in each case, the outcome was higher Adjusted costs increased year on year, which I will discuss in more detail shortly.

Speaker 3

Provision for credit losses was €401,000,000 or 33 basis points of average loans. We generated a profit before tax of €1,400,000,000 down 9% year on year, mainly due to the higher non operating items. Net profit of €900,000,000 was also impacted by the higher effective Average tangible shareholders' equity was 5.4 percent in the quarter. Excluding the aforementioned non operating expenses, the cost income ratio would have been 7% and post tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity close to 9%. Diluted earnings per share was $0.19 in the 2nd quarter and Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results starting with interest rate developments on Slide 9.

Speaker 3

Net interest margin in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank remained strong in the Q2 as deposit betas remained below our modeled assumptions in both divisions. We expect margins to begin to decline from this point, but expect that the tailwind from interest rates for 2023 will be larger than the €900,000,000 we had guided at the start of the year. Net interest margin at the group level increased to 1.5% As the accounting effects we noted in the Q1 partially reversed. As we noted at the time, these effects are held in C and O and are offset in non interest revenues in the businesses and do not affect the group's total revenues. Average interest earning assets declined compared to the 1st quarter, driven by lower average cash balances in the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 3

With that, let's turn to adjusted costs on Slide 10. Adjusted costs excluding bank levies were €4,900,000,000 and this is consistent with our guidance range of €1,600,000,000 to €1,650,000,000 per month. The increase of 4% was driven by inflationary pressures, ongoing investments and business growth, which are partially offset by our continued cost reduction efforts. Compensation and benefits and information technology costs were broadly flat to the prior year quarter. Higher professional service costs were driven by business consulting and legal fees.

Speaker 3

The variance in other costs includes higher expenses for banking services and outsource operations as well as movements in operational taxes. We also saw a normalization of marketing spend and talent recruitment to foster our growth trajectory. Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Provision for credit losses in the 2nd quarter was €401,000,000 equivalent to 33 basis points of average loans, slightly up compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the broader impact of the macro environment. Stages 12 provisions were €63,000,000 with the moderate sequential increase driven by portfolio and rating movements, especially in the Investment Bank.

Speaker 3

Quarter partly reflecting a non recurrence of provisions relating to a small number of idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank. Overall, there are currently no signs of a persistent deterioration in the environment. However, we observed softening in some German mid cap sectors, including automotive and continued weakness in commercial real estate. For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land within our guidance range of 25 points of average loans, albeit at the upper end of the range. Looking at the 1st 6 months, provisions were in line with our expectations if we include events in the International Private Bank we had in the Q1.

Speaker 3

And for the second half of the year, we expect the usual quarterly run rate of about €150,000,000 in the Private Bank, while provisions in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank are expected to overall remain in line with the first half of the year taken together. Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on Slide 17. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of the second quarter, 15 basis points above the prior period. Organic capital generation contributed 16 basis points to the increase, reflecting our strong net income, which was offset mainly by higher regulatory deductions for common equity dividend and AT1 coupons. Risk weighted assets remained broadly flat this quarter.

Speaker 3

In the second half of the year, we expect approximately 70 basis points of headwinds from various items we have discussed with you before, Notably impacts from model and methodology changes, share buybacks and the Numis acquisition. And our leverage ratio was 4.7% at the end of the second quarter, 4 basis points up versus the prior quarter based on our strong organic capital generation. Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, Starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 14. Corporate Bank revenues in the 2nd quarter were over €1,900,000,000 25% higher year on year, driven by an improved interest rate environment and continued pricing discipline with Fee growth in institutional client services and stabilized deposit volumes. As we highlighted at our first quarter results, We do expect a normalization of our interest revenues in the second half of the year as client pass through further accelerates.

Speaker 3

Deposits were €271,000,000,000 essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter and to the Q1 of 2023 as deposit levels stabilized despite increased interest rate competition and strong pricing discipline. Loan volume in the Corporate Bank was €116,000,000,000 down by €13,000,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter and €5,000,000,000 compared to the previous quarter. This reduction reflected overall lower demand and continued selective balance sheet deployment in our trade finance and lending business, as well as the negative impact from FX movements. We remain conservative in our underwriting at this point in the cycle and continue to apply strict lending standards in order to maintain the high quality of our loan portfolio. Provision for credit losses increased in the quarter, reflecting a weakening in certain subsectors.

Speaker 3

Non interest expenses were €1,200,000,000 an increase of 10% year on year, driven by increased non operating costs, predominantly litigation provisions, whereas adjusted costs remained stable. Profit before tax was €670,000,000 in the quarter, up by 52% year on year. The cost income ratio improved to 59% and post tax return on tangible equity was 14.8 percent despite higher non recurring costs. I'll now return to the Investment Bank on Slide 15. Revenues for the Q2 were 11% lower year on year.

Speaker 3

Fixed sales and trading decreased by 10% against what was an exceptional prior year quarter, And we're pleased with the underlying performance, which remains strong, with growth in structured activity helping to reduce the impact from a lower volatility environment. Financing revenues were higher year on year reflecting the proven stability of the franchise with net interest margin remaining robust and solid pipeline execution. Credit trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by improvements in the flow business and strong performance in distressed. Rates and foreign exchange revenues were significantly lower compared to a very strong prior year quarter and reflected a more normalized environment than the prior year period. Emerging Markets revenues were lower as expected with the prior year seeing heightened market activity linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and outperformance in the Asia region.

Speaker 3

Moving to Origination and Advisory, revenues were up 25%, driven by the non recurrence of material leverage lending markdowns in the prior year. Excluding these markdowns, the business underperformed in a challenging market with the global fee pool down approximately 20% year on year. Debt origination revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from the non repeat of the aforementioned markdowns, though performance also reflected a partial year on year recovery in LDCM market share. Investment grade revenues were slightly down year on year, but reflected market share gains in a lower fee pool environment. Advisory revenues were significantly lower, reflecting both lower fee pool and relative underperformance.

Speaker 3

With indications that deal activity is starting to recover, We expect our investments in the Investment Bank to result in a significant rebound in O and A performance into 2024. Non interest expenses and adjusted costs increased versus the prior year, reflecting investments in both our controls and the business to support future revenue growth. Loan balances were slightly higher year on year driven by higher origination across FIC with quarter on quarter balances essentially flat. Provision for credit losses was €141,000,000 or 54 basis points of average loans. The increase versus the prior year was driven by higher Stage 1 and 2 provisions due to rating migrations and portfolio movements, combined with higher Stage 3 impairments, primarily in the commercial real estate sector.

Speaker 3

Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 16. Reported revenues were €2,400,000,000 in the quarter, up 11% year on year, driven by higher deposit revenues. Revenues in the Private Bank Germany significantly increased by 16%, mainly due to higher deposit revenues, which more than compensated for changes in contractual and regulatory conditions affecting fee income. In addition, the prior year quarter benefited from higher valuation impacts. In the International Private Bank, revenues were up 4% or 6% if adjusted for foregone revenues from the sale of the Financial Advisory business in Italy.

Speaker 3

Growth was driven by deposit products, which also were the primary driver of the 11% growth in Premium Banking. In Wealth Management and Bank for Entrepreneurs, revenues were up 1% or 4% if adjusted for the aforementioned foregone revenues. Improved performance mainly in Europe was partially offset by continued slower business momentum in APAC. Turning to costs, non interest expenses were up 26%, mainly attributable to an increase in non operating expenses, reflecting whereas the prior year quarter benefited from net provision releases. Adjusted costs increased by 5%, mainly reflecting investments in infrastructure control improvements and strategic initiatives.

Speaker 3

Inflation impacts were largely mitigated by efficiency initiatives. Profits and key ratios in the quarter were impacted by a total of €254,000,000 of non operating expenses. Provisions for credit losses was €147,000,000 or 22 basis points of average loans in the quarter, which reflects the continued stability of our high quality loan book, especially in the retail businesses and continued risk discipline. Provision for credit losses in the prior year quarter benefited from releases and credit loss allowances following sales of nonperforming loans. Significant sequential decline reflects a non recurrence of certain idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank in the Q1.

Speaker 3

We saw solid net inflows and assets under management of €7,000,000,000 in the quarter with €4,000,000,000 in investment products and €3,000,000,000 in AUM deposits. Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 17. As you will have seen in their report, DWS reported stable revenues despite the effect of weaker markets in 2022 and slightly lower adjusted profit before tax compared to the prior year. My usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are part of the DWS standalone financials. Assets under management increased to €859,000,000,000 in the quarter, reflecting €11,000,000,000 of market appreciation and €9,000,000,000 of net inflows.

Speaker 3

Net inflows were primarily in passive and alternatives, notably in real estate. Closing cash products once again have been significant and very volatile throughout the quarter, ending with net outflows of €1,000,000,000 Revenues declined by 6% versus the prior year. This was predominantly driven by higher funding charges in the segment and a decline in management fees from In average assets under management, performance and transaction fees were significantly higher year on year, driven by the alternatives business. Other revenues declined due to higher funding charges and lower mark to market valuations of co investments, partly offset by net interest income on excess cash from rising interest rates. Non interest expenses were slightly higher with adjusted costs remaining essentially flat.

Speaker 3

Compensation costs were slightly higher, driven by variable retention costs and hiring to support transformation and business growth. General and administrative costs were also slightly higher, reflecting higher banking services costs and transformation implementation, mostly offset by a decline in group support costs. Non operating costs are significantly higher than the prior year from an increase in litigation costs. Profit before tax €103,000,000 in the quarter was down 34% compared to the prior year. The cost income ratio for the quarter was 76% and return on tangible equity was 12 Moving to Corporate and Other on Slide 18.

Speaker 3

Corporate and Other reported a pre tax loss of €115,000,000 this quarter, A substantial improvement versus the pre tax loss of €500,000,000 in the Q2 of 2022 on the same basis. This year on year improvement was driven to a large part by valuation and timing differences, which were positive €252,000,000 this quarter. As a reminder, valuation and timing differences arise on derivatives used to hedge the economic risk of the group's balance sheet. These are accounting impacts and the current period gains partially reflect reversals of prior period valuation losses as the underlying instruments approach maturity. The pre tax loss associated with our legacy portfolios was €170,000,000 versus negative €120,000,000 in the prior year quarter, driven by additional litigation provisions relating to Polish foreign currency mortgages.

Speaker 3

Expenses associated with shareholder activities as defined in the OECD transfer pricing guidelines were €138,000,000 in this quarter compared to €120,000,000 in the prior year quarter. Funding and liquidity impacts were negative €10,000,000 in the current quarter, compared to negative €126,000,000 in the prior year quarter. The reversal of non controlling interests in the operating businesses, primarily from DWS, was positive €51,000,000 broadly flat year on year. Other impacts reported in the segment aggregated to negative €100,000,000 Risk weighted assets stood at €41,000,000,000 at the end of the second quarter, down €2,000,000,000 since the Q1 of 2023. The RWA figure includes €19,000,000,000 of operational risk RWA.

Speaker 3

Turning to the group outlook for the full year on Slide 19. With first half revenues above €15,000,000,000 We believe that revenues above the midpoint of our guidance range of €28,000,000,000 to €29,000,000,000 for the full year 2023 are achievable. We continue to execute on our agenda to foster the bank's growth ambitions and to improve the bank's structural efficiency. As Christian outlined, we have a number of measures underway. Adjusted costs for the full year 2023 are still expected to be essentially flat compared to 2022, benefiting from strict cost management, Lower single resolution fund charges for the current year as well as a potential restitution payment from a national resolution fund.

Speaker 3

We now expect non interest expenses to be slightly higher compared to 2022. This reflects higher than anticipated litigation expenses we had in the 2nd quarter And an impact in relation to the Newman's transaction, which we expect to close in the Q4. Provision for credit losses is now expected at upper end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans, reflecting the current macro backdrop and lower loan balances than initially anticipated. Our capital guidance is unchanged. Our 2nd quarter CET1 ratio of 13.8% allows us to absorb roughly 70 basis points of headwinds in the second half, reflecting the impacts from model changes, share buybacks and the Numis acquisition.

Speaker 3

We remain committed to our capital objectives, most importantly, the distribution of €8,000,000,000 to shareholders in respect of the financial years 2021 to 2025 And moving up to a 50% payout ratio. And as Christian said, part of this plan is the next phase of our share buyback, which will commence next month and will be finalized in the second half of this year. So the performance and the growth opportunities we seized in the first half of this year

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 4

1st

Speaker 5

If you can just start with talking about the revenue outlook. Maybe firstly, big picture, I mean, the macro has been The weak growth is slowing confidence is low. House prices are declining. And in light of this environment, where do you actually see opportunities For your revenue growth, especially in the more stable businesses, where do you see the risks? And then secondly, more concrete in terms of the numbers, In terms of the numbers, the revenue guidance went up for the year, but still implies more like 6 €800,000,000 to €7,000,000,000 per quarter in the second half.

Speaker 5

And there's obviously seasonality, but and you over earned in the first half. So how should we think about the jump off from the second half into 2024? Can you actually grow revenues in 2024 versus 2024 versus 2023? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Anke, and Thank you very much for your question. Let me start and James will potentially add. First of all, on your description on the macro side, I agree, but I think it completely validates that what we have shared with you In the previous calls, we always said that 2023 will be based on a very weak economy on a kind of a no growth scenario. I even expect for the end of 'twenty three, a technical or a very mild recession In Germany, potentially also in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And that was always and exactly the foundation of our plan. And hence, Anke, there is no negative surprise In the macroeconomic outlook, when it comes to our plan or to the underlying drivers, be it revenues, be it also risk course. And that is also, I think, important that from a risk point of view, our credit forecast was always built exactly on that A description of the market you just shared with us and hence we also don't see any downside to our credit forecast, Which James just again reemphasized in his prepared remarks. When it comes to where do we see growth opportunities in Strang strategy, in particular in the stable business, is exactly the right answer. And that's what we feel Kind of on a day to day basis with our clients.

Speaker 2

Of course, we are benefiting from the NII and I'll get back to that in a second. But if you think about What kind of discussions mandates we win with our corporate banking clients around the world when it comes to reorganizing their networks, reorganizing their supply chains, Making sure that we obviously then follow-up with the cash management systems around the world as an answer to their reorganized network, Then this brings us a lot of new mandates, which honestly is even above our expectations. Of course, in this regard, also the most recent upgrades from rating agencies again help us because whenever we get this, obviously, It helps to increase revenues and new clients on boarding. In the private bank, there is a lot of ask and you See that also in our development in the assets under management on the investment side. I think there we are Seen not only in Germany, but if I look in particular in other European countries, in Spain and Italy, we are seen as the go to bank when it comes to investment advice and this is if you talk to the clients in this scenario where inflation is still above 5%, Where they think about how they secure their pensions, now with having Postbank fully integrated on our Deutsche Bank system, these people Think about how to secure the pensions and that is obviously our chance and opportunity and that's what we see in the daily business on the investment business.

Speaker 2

And in the IB, I know that a lot of people always think this is the more volatile business, but I think we shouldn't underestimate also in these days The stability of the financing business in the IB, again shown in Q2, also year over year. I think the future investments we are doing in the O and A business, they will pay off because we can see That actually the trough in this business has been passed and we see from the mandates we are discussing with the clients that there is clearly an uptick in this business And therefore, I expect rising revenues actually in that business also in Q3 and in the following quarters. And I also think that Q2 has again shown that also in the trading business, we have done quite well and also compared to our peers and that we are Actually maintaining or even growing our market share. So if I take all this, I think the positioning of the Global House With 70% of the revenues now coming from the Private Bank, Corporate Bank and the Asset Management, growing assets under management, I really do think we have the right answer, in particular for the environment we are experiencing right now.

Speaker 2

Now Coming to the concrete revenue question and not only for 2023 or 2024, let me give you some more guidance. A) the NII curve is holding up far stronger than we initially planned. And I do believe That with regard to our own existing plan, we see positive surprises also in the second half of twenty twenty three And I do also think in 2024. Let me give you one example. In the Private Bank business, we see a modest 3 digit million revenue increase potential in the second half alone versus our own plan, and that is mainly Coming from NII, but also from the growing assets under management.

Speaker 2

The assumptions which we had so far in the Corporate Bank when it comes to The decrease in NII, I would say were too conservative. And I would also predict that going forward, this will be Slower than anticipated. It will come down, but it is slower. The growth in investment and other fee income, as I just said, is encouraging. It's not only the assets under management, But you have seen the announcement of relationship business we are doing, for instance, with Lufthansa on Maalz and More.

Speaker 2

And to be honest, Anke, this is not the one off. This is actually coming more and more as additional mandates. In particular, if I think about How the corporate bank is thriving? These mandates are coming in more and more. And therefore, I really do believe we are building now to growth in non NII business with all the technology spend, which we did in the Corporate Bank, but also obviously in the other business.

Speaker 2

And therefore, we did all the investments in O and A and Wealth Management also in hiring the people because we see that this business will grow, That there is the increased discussions we have with clients, in particular, in O and A, and therefore, we stepped up for that. So looking at all of this and with the starting base of €15,000,000,000 of revenues, look, there is clearly up Site in the private bank versus our own plan in H in the second half. And to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar number in the Private Bank in the second half than what we have seen in the first half. I think very stable numbers in the Corporate Bank, Potentially slightly lower because of the NII curve. But again, we have been very conservative in the past, potentially too conservative.

Speaker 2

Stable asset management and very robust IB with growing O and A revenues. So all this gave us The confidence, James and I, that we clearly can hint to a higher revenue base than the midpoint of 28,000,000 to 29,000,000 I think we can focus on the €29,000,000,000 number. And if I then look at the businesses we are creating, again, in the non NII, But also actually what we always emphasized here that the real uptick in NII in the private bank is only coming in 2024 and 2025. Honestly, I'm very bullish on the revenue trajectory for 2024 and 2025. So I think we are exactly rightly placed from a revenue point of view, from

Operator

The next question is from the line of Nicolas Payan with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have 2, please. The first one would be on costs. And could you give us a bit of color regarding how you think about costs For the rest of the year and whether the €1,600,000,000 to €1,650,000,000 of monthly adjusted costs run rate still holds?

Speaker 6

And maybe also in light of the price pressure that we are seeing, how do you manage to strike a balance between cost discipline and investment for growth? And which areas are you prioritizing? And the second question will be on CLP, but it was the same question regarding the outlook for the rest of the year. And particularly after the increase in Q2, have you got any concern in any particular areas? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Nikolay. It's James. I'll take both of your questions and Christian may want to add. Look, we've talked about the run rate As we it gives you a sense of what management is focused on. And I think the Past three quarters, we've been able to adhere to the run rate and it's been an area of real focus given both the need to deliver on Cost savings measures in order to support that and manage the investments in a phasing that corresponds with the cost takeout that we're achieving.

Speaker 3

So if I think about priorities, look, our priorities On the cost measures are reasonably clear. We laid them out in March of last year and we're building on that. And they are focused on particularly technology, Distribution platform in private bank in particular, but not exclusively. And then infrastructure support, Can we make that infrastructure support more efficient? And so we are very focused on that and the delivery.

Speaker 3

In terms of priorities on the business growth side, leave aside control investments for a moment where I do think we're near or at the peak of what is required in order to finish that control remediation agenda. We've been we want to be really clear that our focus is on the capital light product areas in the firm and the ability to grow fee and commission income going forward that supports both the return potential of the company and the distribution profile in the future. And those areas, Christian has talked about wealth management being 1, origination advisory being a 2nd, in the Corporate Bank, the fee income sources in the Corporate Bank that go to technology Capabilities, but also just growing our client footprint in some areas where we're a leader. I have doc custody for as one example. So We've been focused on those types of investments, and I think we're making really good progress.

Speaker 3

Just going to the run rate, one thing, As much as we're focused on that range, we do see the pressures I outlined coming towards the end of the year. Numis, As an obvious example, it will give us about $50,000,000 per quarter of additional expense. And then the investment we make in Frontline bankers taking advantage of the opportunity in the marketplace maybe a little bit more. So if the exit rate Per month is perhaps $25,000,000 more constant FX, that would be a natural place. But I think we're In essence, we've started to run downhill in terms of the our ability to deliver on those cost savings Being derisked, if you like, and gaining momentum.

Speaker 3

The Unity project is one example that is Behind us and as we said in the prepared remarks, now it's about crystallizing the run rate benefits over time, but there are many more Similar initiatives that will have a cumulative impact, at which point our greater challenge is phasing Of growth investments rather than delivery of cost savings. I just want to say one other thing while we're on the costs. This non operating cost area for us, obviously, frustrating to have those exceed, especially those out of our control, our original planning. So I look to the second half, we would expect at around, say, dollars 100,000,000 per quarter, the remainder of the restructuring and severance Costs that we outlined for the year to come through. Always uncertain on litigation, but clearly, we would hope to do much better Going forward than in the most recent quarter.

Speaker 3

And then finally, one thing to just make you aware of, we alluded to a little bit in our disclosures, It's early to talk about specific purchase price adjustments and what have you in the numerous closing process, But our current expectation is that we would impair the goodwill attached to that immediately on closing, so in the 4th quarter, Producing about a $200,000,000 item there also that we would think of as non operating, so for your models to and awareness. On CLPs, I'll try to be shorter. Look, the guidance takes into account everything we know today. The environment on balance is in line with our expectations. And if I go all the way back to the beginning of the year, Maybe even a little better than our expectations.

Speaker 3

We did have the idiosyncratic items in the Q1 in IPB Come through and that sort of pushed us up in our range. But otherwise, at the call it 30 basis points, We think it captures our expectations about the second half and we see this as a Slightly elevated, but not a broad deterioration of the credit environment. So we're very comfortable with the guidance there.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Nicolas.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Adam Tarlach with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning all. Thank you for the questions. I've got one on capital and one on NII. On capital and capital return, good to see the €450,000,000 But I want to poke around a little bit beyond that. Your pro form a CET1 is 13.1% post your headwinds, your capital generative.

Speaker 7

So would it be possible for a buyback or another leg to come as soon as The full year results. And then you're clearly highlighting €8,000,000,000 of total capital return through the 2022 to 2025 plan, Of which you've only done €1,750,000,000 So just a sense of how quickly you need to accelerate capital return plans In order to get through that 8 that full €8,000,000,000 I think it would be really helpful to investors. The €450,000,000 is helpful, but people want to know what's coming beyond that. And then secondly, on NII, you're talking about the long dated NII tailwind within The Private Bank. This makes sense given that the nature of that business, but can you put some numbers to it?

Speaker 7

I think there's worries in the market around Peak NII, but a sense of what that recurring tailwind into 2024, 2025, 2026 and even beyond Would look like would give us a bit more confidence about your revenue trajectory beyond this year. So a bit more color around volume of hedges or Kind of the back book rate on those hedges would really give us a bit more some more to play with when we think about the longer term NII story.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you, Adam, for your questions. Let me start with your capital question, And then I hand over to James with regard to the NII question and some more details Beyond the comments I made before. Look, on the capital, first of all, thank you very much for the recognition of the 450,000,000 It's, I think, hugely important for management to deliver that, what we have promised. And so far, what we have promised, we delivered.

Speaker 2

And therefore, one thing is clear, the €8,000,000,000 absolutely stand. That is our target. And based how the company evolves, how actually the capital ratio looks like, if I think about the growth You just heard from James how committed we are on the cost line and hence to further increase the operating leverage. We have full confidence in delivering the €8,000,000,000 I think and we clearly understand that obviously this should be Now you will understand after we just We published our share buyback last night that we won't give you the details for next year because This also always requires a detailed planning. Our planning around starts in September.

Speaker 2

Then I think we have such a constructive relationship with our Our regulator, that warrants then the next discussion. But looking where we see the firm, it is our clear aim To continue this trajectory in 'twenty four, I think we have gone on a pretty nice journey with an annual increase of 50 When it comes to dividend, we did this not only on the dividend side, but also on the share buyback. And As we think this is exactly the right approach, one can potentially think that this is the management aim also to do that in 2024. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of way forward. But clearly, it's not back end loaded only in 2025.

Speaker 2

We know what we have to deliver in 2024. James?

Speaker 3

And Adam, thank you for the question. There's so much that goes into banks sort of rate hedging and profiles. It is hard to pull out. The hedging on the PB portfolio is longer than CB And more euro heavy. So that effect will be with us for several years after 'twenty four.

Speaker 3

It's been a while since I've looked at this in this way, but my memory is that that uplift is sort of between $200,000,000 300,000,000 Per year for a period of time. So that uplift is considerable Just on the rate side, if you've got volumes and sort of a spread dynamic, sort of more active hedging As well as capital benefits and improving unsecured spreads, Yes, there's a number of different features that can help support the NII of the group and the businesses over time. So Isolating that item, good story. There's sustainable growth that comes after 'twenty four And actually probably already in 'twenty four, especially in the second half, but it's one of a number of supportive items. Hopefully that helps give you some color on it.

Speaker 7

Yes, very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Kian Ibo Husain with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to come back to the costs. So if I understand this correctly, we should think more of a cost run rate per month of 1.675 that gets me to 20,100,000,000 annualized. Is there any other factors that you think we should consider rather than this constant adjustment of the cost base?

Speaker 8

Can you Share that with us. If there's anything else, any curve ball that we should think which could impact cost in 2024, 2025 going forward. And in that context on the stated cost basis, can you just clarify what we should think of As a run rate severance and litigation expenses, you mentioned numbers in the past, but they might have changed based on the experience of Q2. And then the second question I have is regarding the private bank. You're running at a clean cost income around 76, Still looks very high considering how the higher rates have helped you on the NII and I was thinking how we should think about Cost income development and in particular cost development absolute in the private bank?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 3

So thank you, Kian. Yes, now 1.675 is not a bad place to think of in terms of exit rate. We'd be pleased to run the company at there over the course of next year. There are Always curveballs in the expense world, but we and that's what I mean by running downhill. I think that our The tools that we have to manage those curveballs hopefully begin to expand.

Speaker 3

As we come out of a Shrinking, control remediation, repairing our technology estate world of the, call it, the past 5 years and move into a growth and accelerating benefit from initiatives underway world. Leave FX aside for a second because that will obviously change the run rate going forward. But otherwise, I'd say inflation is tough, especially on the technology side. So How much inflation flows through? Again, I want to be clear, Because we have so much coming on the expense initiative side, it would then give us The flexibility to phase and time some of the investments in a way that gives us control and allows us To manage that.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we'd like to make the investments and investments that are high return, Low marginal cost income ratio is the direction of travel, but that gives us sort of additional levers. Litigation, severance and restructuring, obviously, the second is in our control. We would probably tell you that A typical severance year, if nothing else is going on, is maybe $100,000,000 $150,000,000 per year, so not gigantic. But it and it really just depends on whether there are larger programs that we initiate and then put aside. But obviously, we'd like to get to the end of a period of time where major initiatives are necessary As part of the transformation of the company.

Speaker 3

And then on litigation, that's actually been hard to estimate. And in fairness, there have been Items that have taken us by surprise, both last year with the 3rd party messaging as an example and this most recent quarter with a number of items. One always has the view that as you get through items, they're behind you, you've taken out the risk. And then therefore, the forward List of matters begins to diminish, but it's and the run rate there, therefore, is hard to define Properly, but we'd love for that to be sub-four 100 in a year, let alone in a quarter. On Private Bank, Christian will want to add, but the operating leverage in Private Bank will be, we think, dramatic over the years ahead and That's really the story there.

Speaker 3

Yes. So, well,

Speaker 2

you took my words because, Kian, I think you are right. Obviously, we are not yet happy with the cost income ratio we have in the private bank. But if you see only on the cost side, what is still to come Just because of the finalization now of Unity, €300,000,000 of costs will fall away In 2025, we have branch closures further to come. I think in the last quarter In the last two quarters, we closed approximately 90 or 100 branches. That goes on.

Speaker 2

This is continuing. You have seen our announcement on the mortgage Saad, that we are actually reducing there also our people In that business as a consequence of our business mix and the capital allocation. So I think on the Cost side in the Private Bank, if I also look at all the key deliverables under Rebecca's wing, where she is now working with Claudio DeSanctis on, There is a clear cost takeout on itself, and I haven't even touched now on the revenue side. On the revenue side, actually, Clear upside. I just gave you a little bit of number for the second half of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 2

This is not extraordinary income. This is just better revenues that we initially That will continue also when I look at the plan in the year 2024 and 2025 also on the back of the NII comments James made earlier. And all that brings us actually into a cost income range for the private bank, which is in the low And that in 2025, that is our plan and we feel exactly on that trajectory. And I do also think with the announcements Claudio made On making the structure now after building up the private bank internationally and private in Germany Under card's leadership, now moving it together, there is additional costs which we actually take out. So therefore, I'm absolutely confident that we can achieve this low-60s cost income ratio than in 25.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Stuart Graham with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple, please. Geeky questions on your CRE exposures. So thank you for the extra information in the interim Paul, you now talk about non recourse loans of €40,000,000,000 but I think that's a different definition to the €33,000,000,000 you talked about at the Q1 stage.

Speaker 9

So my question is Why the change in definition? And what is the like for like figure to the €33,000,000,000 at Q1? And then secondly, you talk about an additional €800,000,000 of stress Bad debt provisions for CRE, but presumably some of that is already captured in your basic provisioning guidance given the current provisioning run rate of £100,000,000 a quarter for CRE. How much of that $800,000,000 is incremental stressed provisioning not captured in your current guidance, please? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the second question, yes, great question. Probably around 500 of the 8 Not in. So we and it depends by the way, Stuart, on the timeframe you choose. So over this year and next, We would expect another few $100,000,000 of total provisions to come in and therefore, I would say About $500,000,000 incremental.

Speaker 3

We had been working hard on that disclosure. And also to your question about definitions, what we were trying to clean up is this is 2 things. 1 is the NAICS code disclosure, which It's an industry definition, but to be fair not really how we think about risk managing the portfolio. And therefore, we wanted to bridge from the NACE at around $40,000,000,000 within the NACE definition, there is non recourse and recourse. Ironically, there's also some non recourse outside of the NACE definition in these numbers.

Speaker 3

So we're trying to give you sort of reconcile if you like to some of the existing external disclosures. What I think is important though is this kind of the 33 of the old Focus portfolio, the 34 of the new Focus What we're trying to give you is a sense of the size of the perimeter that is our focus from a risk management perspective, Where we think what is the portfolio that can produce losses based on its exposure to the current environment, That's a little bit different today than it was in the COVID time when we first created the Focus portfolio. And so hence, Also a shift to that, but not a meaningful difference in terms of total exposures. So that's hopefully some color, Stuart, to help you understand what we were trying to do for you in that disclosure.

Speaker 9

So I should basically forget the €33,000,000,000 and just focus on the new disclosure, yes?

Speaker 3

I would Look, the problem with the Pillar 3 is often that the industry disclosure in the Pillar 3 is really tough to draw meaningful conclusions from. So, yes, short answer is trust us that we're doing our very best to show you The portfolio that we are focused on risk managing in those disclosures.

Speaker 10

Yes.

Speaker 2

And Stuart, I cannot help myself as a former risk measure to comment on that because, a, the downside, which we now included with the €800,000,000 is obviously something which is over multiple years. It's not only this year and next year. So it's a real downside spread over multiple years. And Therefore, I don't want that this is now taken in any wrong context and you think this is a hidden way to increase our base Not at all, but we feel that transparency may even help you to see how strong this portfolio is.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. Thank you for the extra transparency. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Pleasure. Thank you, Stuart.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Jeremy Sigee with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. I've got a couple of questions on capital, please. The first one is, you mentioned that You've now got very friendly relations with ECB, and I think it's a nice positive surprise that you've got this approval So earlier than we were expecting, it didn't have to wait for you to print the 1H numbers, you've already got the approval. And I just wondered if you could talk about what's changed in that Regulatory relationship because obviously, you were in a tougher situation at the start of the year when you couldn't do the buybacks that you wanted. I just wondered what the main changes, whether it's sort of visibility on your headwinds or other factors.

Speaker 11

So sort of what has changed in that Regulatory contacts and these approvals being so forthcoming now. And then my second question also on capital. I just wondered if you had any perspectives on the U. S. Basel III finalization that's coming through and just how that might impact you either in your Does it impact your local U.

Speaker 11

S. Business? Or do you already have such a high CET1 ratio there that it's not particularly affected? Does it affect competitive position for the group in the U. S.

Speaker 11

Or elsewhere? Does it create pressure for Europe to tighten up its implementation of Basel III finalization, any views on that would be really interesting.

Speaker 2

Yes. Jeremy, let me start, and I hate to correct you, but I think I said very constructive. So I must be careful. I don't want to say Frankly, because that may be even taken wrong then. So we have a very constructive relationship with our regulator and that should be always the case.

Speaker 2

Look, what changed, and James may want to add to this, I think actually nothing really changed because we ourselves At the beginning of the year, as we always said, in November December, we said we want to wait how 'twenty three is Starting how the economy is actually developing, we would like to see how the Q1 is developing. And we as we now can say, we didn't actually apply for a share buyback at that point in time because we wanted to see What is going on in this world? The volatility was around. We have the geopolitical uncertainties. We had an inflation.

Speaker 2

The Economic forecasts were everything between a hard recession and actually a growth scenario. And therefore, I think rightly so also with all that what We could see, James, decided and with my full support that we, for the time being, hold off. And then we Started well into the year. We had a far better forecast, what is happening. We saw how stable the business is developing.

Speaker 2

And we saw we are making good progress and that was the right time then also with the forecast into 'twenty three and 'twenty four To apply for that. And in this regard, I think we had very constructive discussions. And this is my own assumption and The only interpretation. I do think that the regulator also actually recognized that we were on the cautious side at the end of 2022 When it came to the start of 'twenty three. And I think that also then obviously was at least not taken negatively.

Speaker 3

And Jeremy, just to add that the timing and magnitude of the reg changes is something that they and we had more visibility into as timing went on, as The model and methodology changes. So that was helpful in terms of giving us greater confidence in that capital plan. I think the step off now in Q2 helps to support that further. And of course, that was the progress during the year was visible to them through the year. On U.

Speaker 3

S. Basel III final framework, Obviously, very curious to see what's in it. I don't think it really impacts us in a meaningful way In terms of our business operations, potentially competitive positioning, given that in our view European banks have been at a capital disadvantage For some time. And then there's also at least the possibility that the timing of implementation could give us A bit more breathing room relative to the 1st January 25, but beyond that, not much Expected. I would not expect that the European legislator sort of reopens It's discussions based on whatever they read in the NPR, and I think that's appropriate where Europe should decide for itself what the appropriate legislation and implementation looks like.

Speaker 11

That's really helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jeremy.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Timur Domz with BZ Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes. Hi, good morning. I would like to address 2 strategic topics, please. So one is on PB and one on the Maison Moore deal. So starting with PB, I mean there has been a reshuffling Under the new leadership of Claudio DeSanctis taking over.

Speaker 12

So when do you plan to communicate further details? And Yes. If you could share any further details to some color there. And Would you also considering, for instance, streamlining the different brands that you are working with in PB? So that would be question number 1.

Speaker 12

And then on the Myles and Maude deal, congratulations on this one. So maybe you could outline the major drivers here, Why you have been chosen and what may have changed here in that respect compared with some years ago? And maybe Could you discuss also the general attractiveness of this co branded card business? I mean, some of your competitors, they Pulled away from this sort of business in the last 2 years. So thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, Timo. On the PB side, look, Claudio started 24, 5 days ago. And Let me start differently. First of all, I think Karl has done a wonderful job in actually making sure that The private banking business is becoming a profitable business. He has done a lot in order to make sure that we are on the trajectory To become a very profitable business, as we said also to Kian's question.

Speaker 2

So the trajectory, which Karl has laid, is exactly the right one. Now what we will see actually in the Private Banking business is actually that the international Private Banking Business and the German Private Banking Business is moving closer together from a product responsibility, from an investment Responsibility. Also from an infrastructure and servicing responsibility, so you will see a more leaner structure, which we now can do After we have done the necessary steps in Germany with Unity, we can now actually pull it under a more Combined and efficient leadership together, which obviously will bring certain cost benefits. On top of that, I do believe that Claudio will focus very much across the Private Banking business on the investment arm, on the capital light arm. You have seen that he has done that very successfully in the international private bank.

Speaker 2

And I do believe if I look at the long term challenges, in particular in Germany, If you really think about what the people are concerned about, it's about the pensions. It's about the state pensions which will come or not come in 10 or 15 years. And in this regard, there is in almost each and every client meeting, there is the question, how can I actually plan for my own retirement In that time period? And for that, you need a 1st class offering on the investment side. And that's exactly where you need the Private banking expertise, which we have with Claudio, which we have with a lot of other people.

Speaker 2

And that's, I think, where Claudio is very much focusing on. Secondly, he will make sure that also this offering in a digital way will make its way to 15,000,000 clients now all on the same IT platform. That is really a meaningful step forward. So I'm very proud what happened with Unity. So I do think the power which we can now bring, in particular in the investment business to Deutsche Bank clients, but in particular to 15,000,000 Post bank clients being now part of our technology is simply outstanding and Claudio will focus on that.

Speaker 2

On the Miles and More, look, I haven't seen, by the way, From the competition and also from the deal in itself that the competition was not interested anymore in such a deal, That was a real race. We are super proud that we were able to be selected by Marcellin Moore and by Lufthansa. What made the difference? At the end of the day, our client can far better talk about that. I will not talk about that.

Speaker 2

The client took a decision. But I do believe that our shift 4 years ago that the corporate bank, The day to day business, the combination, the client centricity which we have built between the private bank, the corporate bank, the way These two units worked together and worked in that pitch made a difference. We delivered 1 Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa. And 1 Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa is not only the best platform for miles and more and the best technology, Which by the way we started to invest already last year in order to be ready now to really do the migration. What we deliver to them is 15,000,000 additional potential clients and that nobody else has.

Speaker 2

And with the commitment of the full board That the private bank and the corporate bank is as much as the heart of the Deutsche Bank business as our focused investment bank, I think the clients get it, and they want them to work with us. And I think that is the advantage which we can deliver. And I can tell you that is only the start because with that mandate, We will, I think, have a big, big chance to win other card businesses in Germany and in Europe.

Speaker 12

Wonderful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Andrew Lim with Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got 3, if I may. So the first one On capital, could you update us on the impact you'll probably see from final Basel III rules? I think the Mercedes guidance was for risk weight inflation of about €30,000,000,000 But if I'm not mistaken, that Excludes the impact of the output floor, so maybe you could also give us additionally what that impact might be from the output floor.

Speaker 13

And then on Slide 9 of the presentation, on net interest margin, I see that your average interest earning assets I've been declining for a few quarters here. You've pointed to lower cash balances as a cause for Q2. But is there something A bit more persistent going on in terms of maybe high interest rates, denting demand for loans Or maybe also the contribution from the reduction in sub hurdle lending, maybe that has a larger impact here. So if you could talk about that in a bit more detail. And then the third question is a bit more technical.

Speaker 13

So you've got EPS of only €0.19 here. So I'm trying to reconcile the net profit that you've used to calculate This is only €402,000,000 which is a lot lower than the €763,000,000 So I'm trying to understand how you get to the €402,000,000 Both of these measures include the deduction of 81 coupons. So is there some other OCI impacts here To get to the $402,000,000 from the $763,000,000 Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

So Andrew, I just I'm not sure exactly what you were talking about in those last numbers, so we may need to clarify the area that you were at. On the capital impact, I'd say we would probably stick with the with our earlier commentary, which I think was 10%, but it's been a while since we've looked at that, incremental of the output floor then between 25% 30%. And in fairness, That's all pre mitigation, business model changes and all that good stuff. So it's There's no update on that, but that would be orders of magnitude. And I think important to emphasize the capital measures that we talked about in April, I mean, You can ask where they intended to support offsetting Basel III impact or to support the distribution same same.

Speaker 3

They're really, I think, valuable in both respects to and to shift the group to more capital light usage of the balance sheet. Goes a little bit to your NIM or interest earning assets question. I'd be surprised if the next number in the series were As big as a of a downward movement as the last 3, albeit loan growth has clearly slowed down and you're seeing The impact now of some of the decisions we announced in April around trade finance and lending as well as the mortgage book. So We would expect to see some impact in the loan balances as a consequence, but we think that that's the right decision economically in terms of supporting Both ROTE and NIM going forward. And maybe I just was I want to make sure I understand the reconciliation that you're Referring to in terms of the was it a forward on capital that you were after?

Speaker 3

Or I wasn't sure.

Speaker 13

Sorry, yes. Okay. If I could So on the supplementary disclosures on Page 21, so you give The net profit there of €402,000,000 to calculate your EPS of €0.19 So that $0.19 is obviously a lot lower than last quarter or $0.63 So I'm trying to understand how you get So that €402,000,000 because on Slide 15, you've got net profit of 763 So there's a big downshift here in the net profit, and I can't quite figure out how you get to that $402,000,000 There Doesn't seem to be any kind of disclosure there. So that's on the EPS side.

Speaker 3

I don't think there's a mystery. I think it's just that we've got about $2,000,000,000 and change shares outstanding. So it looks to me to be proportional To the number, but we can quadruple check and come back to you. Again, we obviously have to take In an EPS calculation, we take out all of the earnings, if you like, to go to other Capital providers, whether that's been to minority interests or AT1 holders.

Speaker 13

Yes. No, sure. Completely agree. I mean, it seems like those two lines are exactly the same, Except for Q2, where suddenly it's different. I mean, it seems like you're deducting everything, like 81 coupons, for example, and also minority interests.

Speaker 13

So, Pat, I can change it up with you.

Speaker 3

Yes, we can follow-up on that.

Speaker 13

Okay, great. And then sorry, No guidance on the output floor then. Is that something we have to wait for later on, I guess?

Speaker 3

That was the first part. It was a Ballpark of 10%, but over several years with a lot still to kind of to go in terms of how we shift The balance sheet in order to mitigate what we can in that output floor impact.

Speaker 13

The 10% increase in total RWAs? Exactly. Yes. Okay, great.

Speaker 3

And that was again a denominator that was closer to 300, Maybe $330,000,000 then to $350,000,000 or even $400,000,000 where we'll be by that time. So you have to go back several years To the point where we gave you a percentage there.

Speaker 13

That's great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Vishal Shah with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi, thank you so much for your presentation. I had two questions. First one was on capital returns. So clearly, with the new buyback announced, your distributions are now at €1,750,000,000 and then remaining is €6,200,000,000 to €5,000,000,000 to that €8,000,000,000 total target. So if I take your 50% payout policy, You would need to generate about €13,000,000,000 plus in net income over the next 2 years.

Speaker 14

And then this is much higher versus consensus at about €9,000,000,000 right now combined for 2024 and 2025. So I'm wondering how what are the key drivers you're looking at to bridge that gap? So that's one. And then the second one is on your Investment Banking business. So you have clearly hired a lot on the front office side there And in both Banking and Capital Markets, plus there's the DUMAS deal that is underway, too.

Speaker 14

So clearly, you're positioning for a potential rebound in Banking and Capital Markets activity. So I mean, what I wanted to check there is if you have a target market share in mind In terms of what you where you want to see your banking business versus the global peers? Or with the recent hiring and the Numis deal, do you think you are rightsized From a staffing perspective, at least for now, that's about it.

Speaker 3

So Vishal, yes, on the first item, you're probably just missing a year. So we It's a little bit complex the way we do it, but we've said in respect of the years 'twenty one to 'twenty five, Paid in the years 2022 and this was include a little bit of capital then returned in or a lot of capital returned in 2026. So we think our on the trajectory that we're on, which remember is sort of asymptotic, if you go 50% per year, the increase is quite steep. And we think Also prudent in light of our own view of the earnings growth potential of DB. On the IB item, and I'll focus now on Origination and Advisory, where the investments have been going, they'll be more visible perhaps.

Speaker 3

There have been investments into the FICC platform, which we think have performed very nicely in terms of our market share improvements from A low point in 2018 2019 to where we are today. We're very pleased with that progression. But in the corporate finance area where we've More recently, our market share has been bouncing around 2%. We do think there is a significant opportunity for us there. We don't have a specific target, but I don't think there's any reason why we shouldn't be able to double the market share in again with our In a disciplined way, inside our client footprint, inside our capital footprint, but by doing just much better in terms of closing Industry gaps in terms of building more of the chain, for example, with private equity sponsors, Both on the way in and the way out, there's a lot of potential that is, if you like, within our franchise perimeter That we really just haven't captured.

Speaker 3

So lots of upside for us there, I believe.

Speaker 14

Thank you so much.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Tom Hallett with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, Chuck. Just a quick one.

Speaker 2

I've noticed you both in

Speaker 15

recent weeks have Increased your confidence in the trading activity to pick up in the second half of the year. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate on that because Yes, the Q2 was actually pretty strong and last year prior periods were also very strong on a relative basis. So Yes. I would just like to know what gives you that confidence. Is it just a simple kind of maybe the credit side of things increasing a little bit more into the back end of the year?

Speaker 15

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So Tom, first of all, the comparative that we've got for the Q4 isn't very demanding. So I do think there's just in that there's a real opportunity to take The year on year revenue up significantly. I think we're in an interesting time. We've talked about the macro Weakening in lower volatility, and you've started to see that against a high base and one where we think we're executing well in terms of our client engagement.

Speaker 3

But in the language I've been using, the micro coming back, especially credit and financing businesses or and doing quite well. An interesting question, is there an environment in which the credit stays that continues to do well in the second half and going into 'twenty four? But because we find ourselves now on the other side of the cycle, increasing volatility As investors now begin to position for an uncertain path in terms of reducing policy rates And an uncertain path in terms of the length of time the policy rates stay at the terminal rate. So there's sort of an interesting environment that We see coming in the second half of the year. We'll see whether that when it comes to fruition or not, but what we're Ramnack and his team super focused on is just engaging with our clients so that we can participate both in the flow side of that activity as well as the structured.

Speaker 3

And I think they've done a fabulous job at that and the second quarter It's a good indication of how we can perform in that market or maybe a slightly better backdrop.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thanks, James.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Martin Yim with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hi. I have two questions, please. The first one is on capital. I was just wondering if you could give us a rundown of the moving parts on the CET1 ratio in the second half of the year.

Speaker 10

I know that you communicated a 70 basis points impact from Numis deal closing, The share buyback and some of the regulatory and regulatory changes. I think Christian mentioned securitization and reduction in software lending potential result So it's some part of the reduction. Could you perhaps quantify that? The second question is on the Corporate Bank. Obviously, the loan book declined about 4% quarter on quarter.

Speaker 10

I know some of that is intentional and it's clearly coming from Risk management and perhaps some impact on some current lending. But I'm just wondering to what extent do you see future demand? Is that entirely driven by you? And if so, when do you expect a turnaround on that front? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thank you, Matti. So briefly, the 70 basis points is we're still thinking 50 basis points of model methodology adjustments. There's a range around that. And then 9 basis points for Pneuma's, 12 basis points for the capital return.

Speaker 3

The other moving parts are organic capital generation and how much we use in terms of balance sheet growth. That should produce a year end ratio probably higher than our original guidance for the year. So we'd like to we'd probably be Closer to or further into the 13s, let's say, than just the 200 basis points margin to MDA, which would be 13.2. Within that, we do have embedded some assumptions about what additional support we can get from securitizations, Optimization and other of the capital measures. Look, we I think if we outperform those assumptions or Our own execution sort of path that puts us in an even better position going into 2024 Both for distributions and for the Basel III build.

Speaker 3

So those are some of the moving parts that we see.

Speaker 2

Yes. And on your second question, I think Your kind of differentiation is right, Juan. Some of the lower loan growth or even decline It's intentionally, by the way, not only from a risk management point of view, because we have actually a very conservative and long standing risk appetite. And therefore, we don't need to do so many adjustments in between. But of course, also we have sub hurdle relationships where And we said that in April, where we want to go for an even better and more focused Risk return strategy, and that's what we are doing.

Speaker 2

So that is one part. And secondly, yes, I think in particular in Europe, but also in Germany, you see that Mid Cap companies, family owned companies, that you see a softening in loan growth And the reduction in demand for the time being, in particular when it comes to long term investments. To be honest, I don't think that this is Something which is continuing for a very long period. But I would say that those companies would like to see where the next 6 to 12 months are going. So and therefore, I would say this Rather, soft loan growth is something which we will see in the second half of twenty twenty three, which is part of our planning And also which goes into the first half year of 'twenty four.

Speaker 2

Nevertheless, and therefore again, it is so important That we built the corporate bank on various engines and the other engines are the fee income, Our cash management mandates, the card business I was just talking about before. And that actually gives us all the confidence that even with Demand, which in my view is only temporary and will come back, we can actually compensate that with Fee business and that is the reason why we invested into that so much.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Last question is from the line of Amit Goel with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, thank you. Yes, two questions. One, just coming back on the asset quality. I think, obviously, that's the commentary about there's no sign of persistent deterioration, although there was some softening in German midcap Including Automotive. I'm just kind of curious what gives you the confidence that it's not Persistent deterioration and or are you changing any behavior or your credit that you provide Into that space?

Speaker 4

And then secondly, just I guess just But in terms of pass through rates, so for the NIM, what are the factors that are kind of driving The lower pass through rates. I appreciate maybe there's some conservative assumptions, but what are the things that you think will drive Changes or kind of increase in pass through as we kind of go through time. So just curious what are the factors that you think are influencing pass At the moment, it ends into the second half of the year. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you for your questions. Let me start on the asset quality Because I'm also in a lot of client contact actually also in Germany, obviously. A, I really do believe and I said it again and again, but the resilience of the family owned companies and the mid cap companies in Germany It's bigger than a lot of people think. If I think about how they actually improved from the 2,008 global financial crisis, if you think about how they actually increased capital, how they improved their working capital, their liquidity, This is a completely different picture than it was 15 years ago. And I'm saying it because they go with a different Buffer into the situation which we have right now.

Speaker 2

And that's also what we are seeing not only in our portfolio, But if you actually look at the overall statistics, there is no such thing like a material deterioration in the credit worthiness of the German mid cap companies. Now what is then specifically on us And I do believe if I even go further back to Deutsche Bank's history in 2,000 and 2,000 and 3, When we actually had too many credit losses in that area, we completely changed the way we are managing credit risk also For medium and family owned corporates, when it comes to concentration risk, when it comes to differentiating between, sort of, say, winners and potential Companies which are more challenged in certain industries, we have a clear industry view and not only the specific company view. And by that, I think our risk management to the individual review of corporates is simply a superior one. And I personally just went last week through, the for instance, the OEM suppliers in Germany. If I look at the portfolio, How diversified we are from a rating point of view, from a concentration risk point of view, I.

Speaker 2

E. That there are no big concentration risk. If we have larger risk, it's actually with investment grade companies Who are actually themselves diversified globally in their business, then I do believe that there may be A little bit of deterioration in that portfolio, but I can't see that we are coming into a situation Where I would see a material deterioration of our mid cap portfolio. So looking at their own resilience And the way we have risk managed that, I'm confident that obviously our portfolio is in good health. James?

Speaker 3

So on pass through, it's an interesting topic and in some ways it's going to be too early to tell. So we'll all sort of do the analysis of this Cycle once it's over. I think a few things. 1, I think the dollar it's different by currency. I think the dollar has started to converge, Perhaps not to model, but to a place that looks to us to potentially be where things settle out a little bit better than the models would have expected.

Speaker 3

The euro is still well behind. What's driving that? I think there's discipline, pricing discipline in the industry. I think there's I think there's an element of this cycle is different because of how sharp and how steep and how fast it was. I think there's an element that the banking industry had a long time of negative and is seeking to recover Some of that sort of lost structural profitability.

Speaker 3

And I think client behavior is also a piece of the puzzle Obviously, they're especially the more you go to wholesale money, they're smart enough to move their money to Places that it earns a higher yield and but then they also know they need to leave a certain amount of money with the banks and they understand That the remuneration of that for payments and operational purposes, and I understand that remuneration for that Money is doesn't follow the market because there are services attached to it. So I think that's an understanding of the business That's maybe better than it has been in the past. So lots of different drivers we'll need to unpack in time, but one that I think is overall a bullish Sign for the industry of the value that banks frankly are providing to their clients, not just in corporate and middle market, but also In the retail space.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thank you, both.

Speaker 12

So thank

Operator

you very much for your

Speaker 1

interest and questions. If there are any further questions you have, please reach out to the Investor Relations department, and have a good day. Bye.

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Key Takeaways

  • Revenues in H1 were up 8% to €15.1 bn with net inflows of €28 bn, positioning the bank to reach its full-year guidance of €28–29 bn.
  • H1 profit before tax hit €3.3 bn (highest since 2011) and, excluding non-operating costs, would have been €4 bn (+21% YoY), delivering a post-tax RoTE of 6.8% (9% excl costs).
  • The bank’s CET1 ratio rose to 13.8% on strong organic capital generation, supported by robust liquidity and a slightly increased deposit base in Q2.
  • It secured approval for a €450 m share buyback (+50% YoY) and, with dividends, aims to distribute over €1 bn in 2023—totaling €1.75 bn in 2022–23—toward its €8 bn distribution pledge.
  • Execution of the Global House Bank strategy is accelerating, with cost‐efficiency targets raised to €2.5 bn (over €600 m delivered), a €5 bn RWA reduction in Q2, and 7.5% compound annual revenue growth since 2021.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00