UBS Group Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 31, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the UBS Second Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackie, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors filed with our group results today together with additional disclosures in our SEC filings. On Slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Sergio Amotti, Group CEO.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. I hope you had a relaxing summer break. For us, the past 8 weeks were intense as we were busy writing the next chapter of UBS's history. This is the first ever acquisition involving 2 global Systemically important banks. It was announced only 5 months ago and we closed it less than 100 days ago.

Speaker 2

This would not have been possible without extraordinary effort and dedication from my colleagues across both organizations. It also required extensive cooperation from the Swiss government and regulators in Switzerland and around the world. We are swiftly executing on our integration plans, already achieving a number of important milestones. We established a target operating model, created a dedicated integration office and rolled out responsibilities with management appointments up to 3 levels below the Group Executive Board, just to name a few. We are also making progress on our cost savings and derisking plans and resolving some legacy matters for both firms.

Speaker 2

Following a detailed analysis, we terminated and handed back all Swiss government support a few weeks ago. Lastly, we decided to fully integrate the Swiss business of Credit Suisse after a thorough strategic review. The thing I'm proudest about is that clients have rewarded our unwavering commitment with extended trust. Thanks to their restored belief in the combined firm, we were able to swiftly stabilize the Credit Suisse core, its wealth, asset management and Swiss bank franchises. We are happy to see markets recognizing our ongoing work.

Speaker 2

Our strategy is unchanged and the Credit Suisse acquisition will act as an accelerant to our plans. We will strengthen our position as the only truly global wealth manager and as the leading Swiss universal bank with scaled up asset management and a focused investment bank. With a highly complementary footprint, we will reinforce our position in key growth markets, including the Americas and APAC and built on our leadership in Switzerland and in EMEA. We will relentlessly focus on clients and continuously improve and expand our services and products. With $5,500,000,000 in assets across the combined firm, the transaction adds scale that will lead to increase efficiencies.

Speaker 2

This will allow us to better focus our resources and target investments that provides superior level of client service. We will achieve our strategy while remaining discipline in our resource management across the entire firm. EIB consuming no more than 25% of the group's risk weighted assets and the rundown of the non core and legacy portfolio are just 2 of the more visible examples of our approach. In essence, We will repeat what this bank successfully accomplished during the last decade. Before I discuss the Swiss Bank decision, let me give you a brief overview of our assessment of Credit Suisse as of March 19.

Speaker 2

Since then, and especially after we closed the acquisition in June, we conducted an in-depth analysis that has only confirmed the necessity of the decisive actions taken over that weekend. It was not just a matter of liquidity drying up. Credit Suisse's business model and business mix was deeply flawed and its reputation severely damaged. With its structural lack of underlying profitability, unsustainable capital allocation and negative revenue and cost prospects, the bank was no longer in a position to continue on its own. This is clearly visible from the year to date losses Credit Suisse reported today a culmination of the bank's 2 loss making years.

Speaker 2

Thanks to our financial and balance sheet strength, UBS was in a position to answer a rescue call from the Swiss government, helping to stabilize the financial system. Importantly, the transaction preserves The best of Credit Suisse's excellent client relationships, people and industry leading products that in other plausible scenarios would have been weakened or lost. Unlocking Credit Suisse's strength as part of UBS will allow us to build something of a more enduring value for all stakeholders. This combination will reinforce our status as a premier global franchise, one that our own market, Switzerland, can be proud of. We are humbled by this task and the responsibility entrusted to us.

Speaker 2

But let me make one thing absolutely clear. Our ability to stabilize Credit Suisse and return the government guarantees in a timely fashion should not take away from the gravity of the situation we inherited, nor should it diminish the scope and scale of the task ahead. So that being said, let me walk you through how we come to our decision on the future of Credit Suisse slides. As I promised when I returned as a CEO a Few months ago, the decision would be driven by facts, not emotions and mindful of the extraordinary circumstances of the transaction. We conducted an extremely thorough review involving teams comprised of some of the best people across both firms with support from external experts where needed.

Speaker 2

Our analysis focused on 4 key aspects that for us would determine the long term viability of the business. We examined what the decision would entail for our clients, shareholders and employees, and we gave special consideration to financial and funding sustainability. We started with a broad spectrum of possibilities ranging from IPO sale, partial or full integration to a spin off and even a dual brand strategy. Eventually, based on our criteria, we narrowed down our selection to the 2 best options, a full integration or a spin off of a focus perimeter, which would exclude segments requiring global capabilities. The final outcome was crystal clear.

Speaker 2

Full integration is by far the best choice. It is not just that the financial merits of integration are greater. It is also the best way forward for our clients for whom the industry leading offering will improve and broaden as we combine products and capabilities from both firms. The alternative would have been a bleak one, considering the current situation, combined with the necessity to carve out most of its global capabilities. Even a more focused spin off of British Swiss White would fail to meet the needs of many of its corporate clients as well as the entrepreneurs it considers core.

Speaker 2

At the same time, Separation from the group would entail a costly, risky and lengthy carve out of technology platforms, causing uncertainty for clients and employees for years to come. Moreover, our analysis revealed a substantial dependency of the Swiss subsidiary on financial resources and operational support from the parent. As a result, it would have existed as a fragile entity struggling to close its funding gap, unable to compete effectively and failing to deliver sustainable returns. We believe this would not have been an acceptable proposition for clients, employees and very likely, regulators. By contrast, being A part of UBS ensure it will have continuous banking from 1 of the most stable and trusted global financial institutions.

Speaker 2

The strength of UBS will underpin the franchise and provide access to efficient funding as demonstrated by our ability to return all extraordinary government and central bank facilities. We take our social responsibilities very seriously. This is why I have repeatedly emphasized the fact that employment related consideration must be a key decision making factor in our evaluation. We have analyzed their impact in both absolute terms and in relation to the Swiss job market. Every last job is painful for us.

Speaker 2

Unfortunately, in this situation, cuts were unavoidable regardless of the selected scenario. We are committed to minimizing the impact on employees by treating them fairly, providing them with financial support, outplacement services and retraining opportunities. Our aim here is to enable those affected to take advantage of a quite healthy Swiss job market, where more open positions in finance are available than there are job seekers. Let me emphasize the vast majority of the cost reduction will come from natural attrition, Retirement and Internal Mobility. Around 1,000 redundancies will result from the integration of Credit Suisse Schweiz.

Speaker 2

This will be spread over a couple of years starting in late 2024. Importantly, the alternative spin off scenario In the alternative spin off scenario, restructuring would also have been necessary and resulted in about 600 redundancies. In addition, the necessity to profoundly restructure other parts of Credit Suisse is expected to lead to about 2,000 additional redundancies in Switzerland over the next couple of years. After weighting all the above factors, we come to the view that a full integration is the best way forward. Our decision reinforces our commitment to clients, employees and the Swiss economy.

Speaker 2

Our goal is to make the integration and the transition for clients as smooth as possible. The 2 Swiss ring fenced entities will operate separately until their planned legal integration in 2024. Credit Suisse brand and operation will remain separate during that time. We will gradually migrate clients onto our system and expect to finish this process in 2025. Given this, nothing will change for clients in the foreseeable future and they do not have to take any immediate action.

Speaker 2

We will continue to provide the premier levels of service that they have come to expect. And with the time, they will begin to see the further benefits of the combined franchise. As we progress in the integration, we remain fully committed to our personal, private, institutional and corporate clients. In terms of lending, thanks to our even stronger capital base, Our intention is to keep the combined exposure unchanged. We are sensitive to the important role both firms play in the lives of our employees and their communities.

Speaker 2

We want to remain an employer of choice in Switzerland, offering attractive career opportunities. Last but not least, as we combine, we will honor all agreed sponsorships of civic, Sporting and cultural activities in Switzerland at least until the end of 2025. I have made it abundantly clear to our colleagues that they must not be distracted by the integration. We cannot take our eyes off our vision and must remain focused on client needs. After all, competition in the Swiss market remains robust.

Speaker 2

The Cantonal Banks in aggregate will continue to have the highest market shares in all relevant personal and commercial banking products. And our branch network, even after the merger, is the 3rd biggest. We welcome the challenge. Competition is what makes all of us better and what makes the Swiss financial system stronger. Now given the events leading up to the acquisition, stabilizing The Credit Suisse client franchises globally has been our most immediate priority.

Speaker 2

Since closing in June, we have won't back client confidence as evidenced by the positive asset flows and strong engagement across Wealth Management and the Swiss business. We saw formidable momentum in deposits with $23,000,000,000 in inflows for the quarter, EUR 18,000,000,000 of which come into Credit Suisse's Wealth Management and Swiss Bank. Meanwhile, UBS Wealth Management has delivered the highest second quarter net new money performance in over a decade. We are pleased to share that this positive trend has carried on into July August. While the quarter is not over yet, so far we have attracted net new assets of EUR 8,000,000,000 for the combined Wealth Management businesses.

Speaker 2

It is encouraging and rewarding to see the franchise stabilize so quickly, Winning back the more than $200,000,000,000 of client assets that left Credit Suisse over the past year won't be easy, but recapturing as much as we can is one of our top priorities. Let's move to assets that have been designated as non core. First, let me briefly touch on the EUR 9,000,000,000 risk through a disciplined process designed to enhance our global banking and derivatives operations. The transfer businesses are expected to be accretive from next year. They will help drive economies of scale while adding only 13% to the Investment Bank's current non op risk weighted assets.

Speaker 2

The remaining EUR 17,000,000,000 of Credit Suisse's Investment Bank, as you can see from the chart, will be transferred to the newly formed non core and legacy unit. This will also include Credit Suisse's entire capital release unit as well as selected assets from the combined Wealth and Asset Management businesses that are not aligned with our risk appetite or strategy. Overall, the non core legacy will comprise of $224,000,000,000 in LRD with a significant portion of high quality and liquid assets and $55,000,000,000 in risk weighted assets including excluding op risk risk weighted assets. With the perimeter largely defined, We are already executing on our strategy to exit these assets in a timely and efficient manner. We made a good start in the Q2, reducing positions representing a total of EUR 9,000,000,000 in risk weighted assets.

Speaker 2

Around half of those come from sales that we actively pursued. As I mentioned before, this is not the first time our organization has managed a successful rundown of non core assets. Our previous experience is a big part of why we are confident in our ultimate success. A clear priority for us is to take out a substantial part of the operating cost associated with this unit. I will touch on that in a minute.

Speaker 2

Thanks to our Strong capital position and markdowns we took as part of the PPA adjustments, we have substantial flexibility in order to optimize The outcome. These are not distressed assets, so we can maintain positions if they preserve value. Our decisions whether to do so will be based on economic profitability, taking into account funding, operating and capital costs of the portfolio. On those positions we do decide to exit, we will move at pace, acting fairly and protecting our clients and counterparties. The national runoff profile is a steep one.

Speaker 2

As you can see from the chart, we will have a 50% or $27,000,000,000 reduction in non op risk risk weighted assets by 2026 and a similar reduction in LRD. But let me assure you that our proactive approach to accelerate the wind down will continue. Now let's turn to cost reductions, A key element of returning to profitability and creating sustainable value across the combined firm. First, as we speak, we are actively addressing the need for deep restructuring at Credit Suisse. This is an acceleration and expansion of the work that the firm itself saw as necessary to put a stop to losing money.

Speaker 2

Secondly, additional efforts are required to generate synergies across the combined businesses. We aim to take out over $10,000,000,000 in gross expenses from the combined franchise based on full year 2022 cost base. Around half of that will come from restructuring the Investment Bank and running down non core assets. The other half will come from actions across the rest of our operations. There is meaningful duplication and can be removed.

Speaker 2

Thousands of application and IT platforms to be decommissioned and hundreds of legal entities to be merged or closed to make us more efficient and effective. Let me give you an example Of previous leases current 3,000 plus IT application, only around 300 will be integrated into UBS infrastructure, contributing to our combined future business model. Importantly, we will continue investing to make our platforms and processes more resilient and support our existing and future growth ambitions. We will also absorb some further inflation. All told, we aim to bring the group's underlying Cost income ratio exit rate below 70% in 2026.

Speaker 2

We are 2.5 months into one of the biggest and most complex bank mergers in history. We are executing our plans at pace and wasting no time in delivering value for all our stakeholders, including shareholders. In the next 4 to 6 months, our focus will be on restoring underlying profitability, while progressing on other areas, including business transformation, client migration and simplification of our combined legal entity structure. On the latter, a key milestone will be the merger of our parent operating entities, UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG. This step planned for 2024 will allow us to simplify our structure and operating model, optimize capital and liquidity within the group and will support achieving our cost savings ambitions.

Speaker 2

We expect to substantially complete our integration program by 2026. A key pillar of our strategy is to maintain a balance sheet for all seasons, one that supports our capital generative business and allows us to offer attractive capital returns. We expect to operate at around 14% CET1 capital ratio over the medium term. And as we exit 2026, we aim to achieve an underlying return on CET1 of around 15%. As you know, we have suspended share repurchases for the time being,

Speaker 3

but we remain committed to growing our dividend and returning excess capital to shareholders through buybacks. We will update you on our plans in this regard with the 4th quarter results. With that, let me hand over to Todd. Thank you, Sergio. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 3

It is a privilege to be with you today as Group CFO, especially at this watershed moment for UBS. Since my appointment, my focus has been on the financial consolidation of the 2 firms, progressing the work done on transaction adjustments, optimizing our liquidity and funding position, firming up our cost savings and enhancing financial reporting controls for the expanded group. Regardless of whether staff come from Credit Suisse or UBS, I've been extremely impressed with the dedication of the finance team. I'm proud of what we as a unit have already been able to accomplish and we like the entire firm continued to execute at pace. We recognize that this is a complex deal, but our aim is to be clear and forthcoming and explaining the financial implications of our actions during this critical period and beyond.

Speaker 3

Today, I'll cover our Q2 operating performance, the impact of the merger on our balance sheet and capital as of day 1, and finally, our integration plan and outlook. Let's start with the quarter on Slide 17. I'll refer to UBS Group AG's consolidated results, which this quarter include 1 month of Credit Suisse's operating performance presented under IFRS and in U. S. Dollars.

Speaker 3

On a reported basis, the 2nd quarter profit was 29,000,000,000 both pre and post tax. These results were largely driven by the net impact from items related to the acquisition, principally negative goodwill of $28,900,000,000 and integration related expenses and acquisition costs. Excluding these items, the group pretax profit was $1,100,000,000 of which $2,000,000,000 from the UBS subgroup and negative $800,000,000 from the Credit Suisse subgroup. Turning to Slide 18. The negative goodwill of $28,900,000,000 is calculated as the difference between the consideration UBS paid and the fair value of the acquired net assets after taking into account the various PPA adjustments of negative $25,000,000,000 The roughly $6,000,000,000 difference between the negative goodwill reported today and the amount included in the Form F-four registration statement just prior to closing is principally explained by 2 factors.

Speaker 3

First, Credit Suisse generated operating losses over the 1st 5 months of 2023 that were not captured in the F-four, which was prepared as if the transaction occurred on December 31, 2022. 2nd, we applied additional net negative PPA adjustments to Credit Suisse's financial assets and liabilities, reflecting a more detailed fair value assessment post closing. The total net PPA adjustments of negative 25,000,000,000 consists primarily of marks of negative $14,700,000,000 in connection with financial assets and liabilities. This includes negative $12,400,000,000 on mainly fixed rate accrual assets and liabilities, of which around $8,500,000,000 relates to our core businesses and around $4,000,000,000 to non core and legacy. In addition, we made negative $2,300,000,000 of further necessary adjustments to fair value positions, mostly related to non core and legacy.

Speaker 3

The negative $8,500,000,000 of marks on core business accrual financial instruments include for example, PPA adjustments on the Swiss mortgage book, which were almost entirely interest rate driven. The majority of the accrual basis positions are expected to mature within the next 3 to 4 years and if held to maturity, will pull to par. Of the total marks on accrual positions, dollars 6,000,000,000 pretax or CAD5 1,000,000,000 net of tax are CET1 capital neutral as FINMA has granted us transitional relief, which mainly applies to Swiss Mortgages. The transitional treatment is subject to linear amortization concluding by June 30, 2027. The negative marks of 2,300,000,000 on fair value assets and liabilities that I mentioned earlier reflect UBS's assessment of the complexity, liquidity and model risk uncertainties in the book, as well as the relevant markets for potential strategic exits.

Speaker 3

We also made PPA adjustments of negative $4,500,000,000 to capture UBS's determination of Credit Suisse's provisions and contingent liabilities related to litigation, regulatory and similar matters. This includes $1,500,000,000 of incremental provisions Credit Suisse took in the 2nd quarter. Other net PPA adjustments totaling to negative $5,500,000,000 largely relate to GAAP differences associated with pension accounting, but also goodwill and intangibles and fair value marks on non financial assets and liabilities, including software and real estate. Of the total negative $25,000,000,000 of PPA adjustments, Negative $17,000,000,000 is CET1 capital relevant. With the balance relating to the $5,000,000,000 regulatory waiver I mentioned earlier and other items that are filtered out of CET1 Capital such as pension accounting differences, goodwill and intangibles.

Speaker 3

Overall, we believe the negative goodwill, including the PPA adjustments therein, In addition to underpinning almost $240,000,000,000 of acquired RWA, provides us with sufficient capacity to absorb The cost to achieve our 2 key savings objectives: 1st, an efficient wind down of the non core businesses and associated overhead we acquired and second, positive operating leverage and synergies in our core franchises, all while remaining capital generative over the integration timeline. We are highly confident that we can successfully integrate Credit Suisse, enhancing our business model and operating metrics, while continuing to ensure we maintain world class capital ratios and a balance sheet for all seasons. On Page 19, we illustrate how the transaction strengthens key financial measures from day 1, offering us a highly attractive starting point as we commence this journey. Since the acquisition, our capital position is even stronger with almost $200,000,000,000 total loss absorbing capacity and a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4%. Additionally, our tangible book value per share is up 49% quarter on quarter and today We manage over $5,500,000,000,000 of invested assets with a unique and meaningful presence in all the major markets across the globe.

Speaker 3

Remaining on capital on Slide 20. The strength of our balance sheet is the foundation of our success and the reason why we were able to restore financial stability and client trust in such a short amount of time. As of the end of June, as just mentioned, our CET1 capital ratio was 14.4% and our CET1 leverage ratio was 4.8%. Included in our capital ratio this quarter are the impacts from the closing of the Credit Suisse acquisition, including a $10,000,000,000 operational risk RWA reduction from diversification benefits and a combined lower forward looking risk profile. Looking through to the end of the year, Improvements in our underlying profitability, mainly from cost saves and CET1 capital relevant Pull to par effects from the PPA adjustments are expected to largely, but not fully, offset integration related expenses.

Speaker 3

We also expect to maintain a CET1 capital ratio of around 14% and a CET1 leverage ratio of more than 4% over the medium term. You have often heard us referring to our balance sheet for all seasons and our capital generative operating model that allows us to service clients and invest in the business through the cycle. It's how we've operated over the last decade and it's how we intend to continue to operate going forward. So rest assured, Maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons will remain among our very top priorities. On liquidity and funding on Slide 21, we closed the quarter with an average liquidity coverage ratio of 175%, well above our prior quarter level and a net stable funding ratio of 118%.

Speaker 3

The liquidity coverage ratio increase largely reflects the elevated HQLA levels of Credit Suisse, including the effect of the usage of the Swiss National Bank facilities. As Sergio highlighted, positive net new deposits in the past few months enabled us to repay Ella Plus and terminate the public liquidity backstop facility as announced earlier this month. We expect to continue attracting net new deposits. And as of this week, we've already seen in the Q3 $13,000,000,000 of positive net new deposit flows in our combined Wealth Management and Swiss franchises. While this will help us narrow the inherited funding gap and continue to manage our liquidity coverage ratio at prudent levels, We expect to resume execution of our funding plans shortly.

Speaker 3

In addition to maintaining significant liquidity and funding buffers on a consolidated basis, we're actively managing the allocation of financial resources among our significant legal entities, which also have standalone funding requirements and will continue to operate while we progress towards our target legal entity structure. We're working towards merging Credit Suisse AG into UBS AG in 2024 as this is a critical step to removing resource allocation bottlenecks and enabling the realization of business and operational efficiencies. Now on to Slide 22. Excluding Credit Suisse's performance in June, The effects of the acquisition I mentioned earlier and a gain on sale of $848,000,000 in asset management last year, UBS' pretax profit in the quarter was $2,000,000,000 up 12% year over year. Before turning to the UBS subgroup business division starting on Page 23, let me first point out that for the 2nd quarter, The negative goodwill as well as a substantial portion of integration related expenses have been retained and reported in group functions.

Speaker 3

Starting with the Q3, we intend to consolidate the reporting of our business divisions across the UBS and Credit Suisse subgroups and we'll report integration related expenses in the respective combined segments. All references to figures are in U. S. Dollars and comparisons are year over year unless stated otherwise. In Global Wealth Management, we delivered net new money of $16,000,000,000 the strongest second quarter in over a decade with inflows across Switzerland, EMEA and APAC and despite $5,000,000,000 in seasonal tax payments in the U.

Speaker 3

S. We also delivered net new fee generating assets of $13,000,000,000 or an annualized growth rate of 4% with positive flows across all regions, as well as net new deposits of $5,000,000,000 These strong inflows across net new money, Fee generating assets and deposits demonstrate our continuous focus on active client engagement and the trust This was especially important during a quarter where the macro backdrop and developments with Credit Suisse placed a premium on our investment advice and the stability of our GWM franchise. Profit before tax was $1,100,000,000 down 4% despite strong growth in EMEA and Switzerland of 15% 9%, respectively. Positive top line contributions from all regions outside of Americas supported a 1% revenue increase, which was more than offset by higher expenses. In the Americas, revenues were down 4%, mainly as net interest income reflected continued rotation into higher yielding deposits and investments from transactional and sweep deposit accounts.

Speaker 3

Although we expect NII in the Americas to continue to tick down sequentially from ongoing cash sorting and deleveraging in the current rates environment, we nevertheless continue to see the U. S. Market as a strategic priority for us, and hence we continue to invest in the business for future growth. As a result, we expect our pre tax margin in the Americas to be low double digit to mid teens over the near term. Onto total GWM revenues.

Speaker 3

Net interest income was up 14% year over year and down 3% sequentially, the latter reflecting mix shifts and lower deposit and loan balances, partly offset by higher deposit margins. Recurring net fee income decreased 3% due to negative market performance, while positive inflows were offset by clients' continued repositioning into lower margin solutions. As a reminder, we bill based on daily balances in the Americas and on month end balances everywhere else. As such, 2nd quarter revenues did not fully reflect June's market rally, which we're seeing benefit the 3rd quarter. Transaction based income decreased 6% impacted by investor uncertainty, particularly in Americas and APAC.

Speaker 3

However, towards the end of the second quarter and into the third, we're seeing a pickup in both client sentiment and transactional momentum, especially in APAC. Operating expenses ex litigation, integration related expenses and FX were up 3%, driven by increases in technology and personnel expenses. Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on Slide 24. We delivered another record quarter excluding past one off gains. Profit before tax was up 54 percent to CHF612 1,000,000.

Speaker 3

Revenues increased 24% with increases across all revenue lines, highlighting continued momentum in the business. Net interest income increased by 45% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter. Sequentially, we continued to see loan growth, while the deposit base remained roughly stable. Costs were up 9%, driven by continued tech investments and higher personnel expenses. The cost to income ratio was 51%, a 7 percentage point improvement year on year, demonstrating strong positive operating leverage.

Speaker 3

We saw strong momentum with 10% annualized growth in net new investment products and almost 6,000 net new clients, reflecting the trust our clients continue to place in us. Moving to Slide 25. In Asset Management, the profit before tax was $90,000,000 Excluding last year's gain on sale, total revenues decreased 5% with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds, asset mix, as well as lower performance fees. These headwinds were partially offset by 1% lower costs. Net new money in the quarter was strong at 17,000,000,000 a 6% annualized growth rate.

Speaker 3

Net new money excluding money markets and associates was $19,500,000,000 with positive momentum in SMAs and alternatives. Turning to Slide 26. In the Investment Bank, the profit before tax was $139,000,000 The operating environment for the Investment Bank's trading businesses was defined by significant lower equity volatility levels compared to the prior year period. Within Global Markets, this resulted in a meaningful decline in client activity levels across both equities and FRC, where revenues of $1,500,000,000 were down 11%, broadly consistent with our peer group. Our financing business continued to deliver strong results, reporting its best second quarter and best first half on record.

Speaker 3

This demonstrates the resilience of our balanced portfolio of risk efficient businesses as we continue to invest in capabilities that are critical to our clients. Global Banking revenues of $371,000,000 were down 2% as the 2nd quarter saw the global fee pool at its lowest quarterly level since 2012. In the Q2, we significantly outperformed the fee pool in EMEA and gained share in global M and A. Operating expenses were up 2%, predominantly on higher tech investments, offsetting lower provisions for litigation, regulatory and similar matters. On Slide 27, I now turn to Credit Suisse AG's full 2nd quarter results, which were separately published earlier today.

Speaker 3

Credit Suisse AG's reported pretax loss for the 2nd quarter was CHF 8,900,000,000. This result includes several large items, including CHF 2,200,000,000 in adjustments to fair value marks, $1,800,000,000 in software write downs, dollars 1,300,000,000 in additional litigation provisions and $1,000,000,000 for a goodwill impairment. Stripping out these and other items that are not representative of Credit Suisse AG's underlying performance in the quarter, the adjusted operating loss was CHF2.1 billion. Not included in this figure are the results of a few legal entities that fall outside of Credit Suisse AG's consolidation scope. Including those entities, the Credit Suisse subgroup's Pro form a second quarter adjusted operating loss was CHF2 1,000,000,000.

Speaker 3

In discussing the Credit Suisse subgroup performance in the 2nd quarter, I'll focus on this CHF 2,000,000,000 adjusted loss as it better informs the starting point for the group in combination with UBS's quarterly underlying performance. On Slide 28, Credit Suisse's quarterly adjusted pre tax loss was largely driven by operating losses in the Credit Suisse Investment Bank and the Capital Release Unit, as well as elevated funding costs in Credit Suisse's Corporate Center. Sequentially, revenues declined by 38%, driven by Credit Suisse's Investment Bank, down 78%, where the sharp drop in revenues was due to little to no new activity in the context of expected exits following the acquisition. 2nd quarter revenues also reflected elevated funding costs, primarily from the Swiss National Bank facilities. Going forward, we'll focus on 2 key priorities in relation to Credit Suisse's Investment Bank and Capital Release Unit.

Speaker 3

First, rebuild activity and profitability levels of the businesses we decided to retain as part of our core investment bank. 2nd, actively manage the wind down of businesses and positions that are not aligned to our strategy. These include those already in the Credit Suisse Capital Release Unit and Investment Bank not retained as core and will be managed and reported within our non core and legacy segment beginning in the Q3. Moreover, as the wind down is executed, we'll decisively take out all costs in relation to resources, technology and real estate that are not needed to support either what is retained in our core investment bank or what is strictly required to efficiently wind down businesses and positions managed by our non core and legacy team. In contrast to Credit Suisse's Investment Bank and Capital Release Unit, we saw relative stability across Credit Suisse's Wealth Management, Swiss Bank and Asset Management segments.

Speaker 3

In Credit Suisse Wealth Management, we've seen a stabilization of net new assets, trending from substantial outflows in April to net inflows in June, with $14,000,000,000 of net new deposits in the quarter. We remain focused on introducing Credit Suisse's clients to the unrivaled value proposition of the combined firm to counterbalance any headwinds to our flows from lag effects stemming from past or future attrition of Credit Suisse relationship managers. In addition to clear and decisive actions to retain client assets, We also implemented client advisor incentive programs with the clear objective to win back and sustainably retain client assets. Quarter to date, these actions have helped us to attract net new deposits of $10,000,000,000 and positive net new assets in the Credit Suisse Wealth Management franchise. Credit Suisse's adjusted operating expenses were down 10% sequentially, reflecting actions initiated before and after the merger announcement, as well as voluntary attrition of employees.

Speaker 3

As of the end of the second quarter, Headcount was down by over 8,000 compared to the end of 2022, split roughly equally between internal and external staff. I now turn to Slide 29. On an illustrative and underlying basis, The sum of the UBS subgroup pre tax profit of $2,000,000,000 and the Credit Suisse subgroup pre tax loss of 2,200,000,000 after translation to U. S. Dollars equals a combined pro form a group operating loss of around negative $300,000,000 You can consider this indicative level as a useful starting point to contextualize the trajectory of our underlying profitability going forward and assess the steps we are taking to achieve our ambitions.

Speaker 3

1st and foremost, we're executing on our cost reduction plans at pace, and we expect positive combined Underlying profits in the second half of twenty twenty three. We expect to deliver underlying exit rate cost savings of over $3,000,000,000 by the end of the year, which will benefit our 2024 results and to incur a broadly similar amount of integration related expenses in 2H23. While neutral to our underlying performance, I would note that such integration related expenses will be partly offset by pull to par effects of over $1,500,000,000 2nd, Asset and deposit retention and win back initiatives will continue to support the positive momentum across our Wealth Management businesses. In particular, we expect to see positive underlying contribution from the Credit Suisse Wealth Management franchise by the first half of twenty twenty four. We will apply the same systematic approach to client and asset retention and win back across all of our core franchises, especially following today's announcement in connection with the Swiss businesses.

Speaker 3

3rd, our Q2 2023 pro form a results include $550,000,000 of funding costs related to the Swiss National Bank facilities that Credit Suisse reported in its corporate center. The repayment of these facilities will lead to materially lower funding costs in 3rd quarter and further benefits in the 4th quarter for the combined group. Continuing on the NII topic, Sequentially for 3Q 2023, we expect a low single digit percentage decline in our combined Wealth Management businesses with positive contribution from the Credit Suisse franchise and a mid single digit percentage decline in our Swiss businesses. This excludes the Poltopar effects I mentioned earlier. These elements in combination with disciplined resource management and a focused execution mindset across the leadership team give us confidence in our ability to deliver a successful integration, starting with approaching breakeven in the 3rd quarter and returning to positive underlying profitability before the end of the year.

Speaker 3

With that, I'll hand back to Sergio for his closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Todd. As we speak, the geopolitical and macroeconomic outlook remains volatile and difficult to predict, but of course, Major developments on this front will impact our business in the short term. As always, our first priority To stay close to clients and help them manage the challenges and opportunities presented by this uncertain environment. For us, this is business as usual, and we remain focused on this priority. At the same time, we are we will also execute on our integration plans with determination and pace that will unlock significant economies of scale allowing us to fund future investments as we continue to pursue growth opportunities.

Speaker 2

We are well aware of the additional trust and responsibility that accompany this transaction. We will not betray that trust, remaining faithful to our strong culture and conservative risk management. I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead of us. I strongly believe UBS will emerge as a stronger global financial institution, one of even greater value to its clients, while remaining safe and delivering superior returns. With that, let's get started with questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session for analysts and investors. First question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Morning. Thank you very much for all the information. There's a lot to get through and a lot of questions. I'll just ask 2 things. One is, could you talk about the SWISS integration, which obviously takes time?

Speaker 4

And I think you said it's going to legally close in 2024 and then physically integrate in 2025. I just wondered What determines that time frame and how you manage, how you intend to keep the businesses stable whilst they're in that slight sort of limbo period? So that's my first question. And the second question is about sort of capital stack. The 14% CET1 target, I imagine it implies that you're going to reissue AT1 and rebuild the AT1 part of your capital Zack, and I saw a headline the other day that you might even do that this autumn.

Speaker 4

I just wondered if you can't comment on that aspect, your intentions in terms of issuing AT1? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jeremy. So Well, first of all, on the integration, of course, now that we go through, as I mentioned, it's very important to understand The sequence of how we're going to go through the merger of the different legal entities. As I mentioned before, our intention is to merge The 2 parent company, UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG. And as a follow through, different entities underneath will go through the same process. So we need to optimize the timing from a different aspects.

Speaker 2

And last but not least, also the one of Regulatory approvals. So we are starting now the process to do that in terms of the Swiss business. The way we will manage that is by, as I mentioned, 1st of all, assuring that all people employed In the Swiss businesses, at UBS, Anchor de Suisse will not be subject to any redundancies until the end of 2024. So what's the most important message is to clients that nothing changes for them. And our view is to make it Very smooth for clients to go through the transition.

Speaker 2

And so once we go through this Kind of legal process and regulatory process of merging the 2 entity, we did at the same time, we are also tackling The IT migration, the operational migration, and this is something that will only be completed early on in 2025. So what we the message here is to is a balance between showing The way forward to our people, to clients, but without rush and in a stable manner, so that people Our clients continue to be served in the way they expect to be served. In terms of the CET1 target, Well, of course, 81 continues to be an important element of our capital stack and strategy. I will not comment on speculations of this. We are watching the market carefully.

Speaker 2

We will assess the timing and the need of tapping the markets when appropriate. But yes, of course, we are looking at the 81 markets and we will make our

Operator

The next question is from Alastair Ryan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you. It's Hyster at Bove. Sergio, good morning. Great to

Speaker 2

have clarity

Speaker 5

on the strategy. And obviously, the market's Delighted as you are that the flows have come back. Just then on operating costs, very clear ambitions. And it looks like You're bringing forward a little 27% to 26% when you've landed everything. But just given the size of the operating costs in the old Credit Suisse Investment Bank and Non Core.

Speaker 5

Can you give us any sense about how quickly you can go there? So Quite a large restructuring charge integration charge in the second half, but does that cost number move out quickly so that you Normalized profitability or is there still quite a long tail to the cost in that part of the business? It's just IB Classic, the revenues have gone, the costs are still lingering how

Speaker 2

I'll pass it to Todd.

Speaker 3

Hi, Alistair. Yes, in terms of the speed at which we expect to take out costs, as Serge and I said, We've been operating at pace in terms of the cost takeout, which is among our top priorities in terms of, in Particular restructuring the parts of Credit Suisse that need immediate attention and restructuring. And so you see how we're making Very strong progress out of the gate in terms of the cost takeout through the second half of twenty twenty three and the cost to achieve those cost takeout as well. We've obviously modeled to get to the The targets that or the landing zones that we described earlier in terms of returns and a costincome ratio at the end of 2026. But as you say, that the costs do have a long tail in some cases, and that's because The operation that we have to unpack because you have significant infrastructure and technology, you have A very large array of legal entities, over 1,000 legal entities that have to be addressed.

Speaker 3

And Just back one proof point on the software components. There are 3,000 applications And the work that our team has done suggests that we will only integrate 300 into UBS. That takes time. And so yes, there is a long tail, but you can count on us to operate quickly. The last thing I would say is in terms of clarity on A sense of as those things hit through because we give a degree of clarity through the second half of the year and we give sort of our landing zone, We will come back with further clarity once we do the business planning process in the second half of the year and that will be with our Q4 earnings in early February.

Speaker 2

And I would probably complement Todd's observation because it's very important that The fact that the vast majority of the assets in non core and legacy are supported by the Credit Suisse IB platform. So as we progress in winding down, call it, the core day to day operation from the front office standpoint of view, Whatever is left is going to be legacy infrastructure, IB infrastructure that is only there for non core. And so you can see how then this will be a very important element in determining how quickly we get rid of non core assets. Because as a consequence of that, we accelerate the winding down of this operation. So but I think that It's exactly what we are working on and we will give you more detail in early on next year when we present our Q4 results and our 3 year plan.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Hallum from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my questions. Just 2 from me. First, In Wealth Management, you've talked about now essentially being at scale in every growth market globally. But in tangible terms, what does that enhanced scale enable you 2 that perhaps you weren't able to do previously.

Speaker 6

And have you seen any proactive response from competitors in reaction to that enhanced Scale, that's my first question. And then second, looking at the banking business in Switzerland, now the dust has settled, does all the volatility we saw earlier in the year change at all how you think The combined Swiss bank, be it in terms of capital, funding, liquidity, etcetera. I guess just sort of simply has your risk appetite changed in Switzerland?

Speaker 2

Thank you. So well, I mean, look, in terms of scale, of course, there is an economic Economy of scale, so being able to leverage UBS' IT platform as we onboard all the assets, It's a huge advantage because we have, call it, marginal cost effects. But also When you look at the geographic footprint of the 2 operations, they are extremely complementary In some areas by relationships, but also in geographic terms, I. E, for example, in Brazil, right? So we had a lot of operation, Credit Suisse is much stronger.

Speaker 2

We now create a very important player. In Asia, we really reinforce our Position and both in North Asia and Southeast Asia, I think that in Switzerland it's quite clear and also across Europe where there are different markets where Ideally, it's a very fragmented market in general, Wealth Management, in particularly in Europe. So there, We create economy of skills and things that we would have not been able to fund from our organic standpoint of view. So it's very important. As I mentioned before, also Credit Suisse across the board in Asset Management and Wealth Management brings capabilities and excellent products that can be then leveraged into our into the UBS client franchise.

Speaker 2

Have we seen competitors? Yes, I mean, the reaction of competitors, of course, they start to take advantage of the fragile situation of Credit Suisse already during 2022, late 2022, of course, at the beginning of the year. And it's a pretty normal situation. So now having said that, I think that as you saw from the flows, clients are Now comfortable and they understand the value added of the franchise. We are able to retain and actually re attract back clients.

Speaker 2

So now It's our turn to be proactive and we will not spare any effort to regain back Any lost assets? So in terms of the Swiss, As anything is anything changing, I mean, it's very important to reiterate that nothing changes in the way we run our Swiss businesses until they are fully integrated, right? So from a client standpoint of view and then service and then risk And capital allocation, nothing changes. And even after we merge it, our commitment, as I said in my remarks, is that we will continue to sustain the combined lending book. Of course, there are Exceptional risky situations, but our principle is very clear.

Speaker 2

1 and 1 makes 2. We want to keep our market share in Switzerland. Switzerland is strategic, absolutely strategic for the group. And we will not want to lose any of the market share we have today.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Kiana Boesen from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes, good morning, Stuart, Bill and Todd. Thanks for taking my questions. First question is on risk weighted assets. You have around 557,000,000,000, dollars 145,000,000,000 operational risk weighted assets. And I'm just wondering How we should think about the exit run rate in 2026 in terms of total risk weighted assets As well as in terms of operational risk weighted assets, if I may?

Speaker 7

And then Second question is related to the non core. Could you talk a little bit about the P and L effect of the non core ex any proactive write downs or sales, so to say, leading to potential write downs. I just try to understand the P and L in terms of run rate of the non core legacy bank, if I may. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hi, Keene. In terms of the op risk RWA, We will come back next quarter after doing a fair bit of additional modeling in terms of The op risk RWA of the combined bank, we've started to have initial Views on that and initial discussions with our regulators and that informed the $10,000,000,000 reduction that I spoke about in my comments. And then in terms of the trajectory and how we think about the 557 towards 2026, You'll have more color on that in term after we complete the business planning process and our 3 YSP and come back early next year as mentioned. In terms of the you asked about the P and L and the run rate in non core. So what I would say on that is So first off, it's the thing that's most important is to take costs out and to focus very significantly on the cost takeout because there's Significant level of overhead and costs that aren't associated with the wind down of the portfolio.

Speaker 3

So the way to think about it is that We have emphasized so far today that we have to take costs out and effectively the costs that sit in Parts of Credit Suisse that don't work. And so those costs, Whether they be personnel costs or whether they be technology costs or real estate costs, they move into non core and legacy if they don't support The core businesses and they have to be run down extremely quickly. And so I would say 1st and foremost, it's a cost The way to think about it is the cost rundown over the integration timeline. Then there's the asset rundown, and we talked about the trajectory from a natural rundown perspective. And of course, as Sergio mentioned that we'll be strategically and actively looking at that.

Speaker 3

And of course, We from that perspective, we have taken some PPA adjustments In excess of $5,000,000,000 relating to non core and legacy, I think that's a useful way to think about too the fact that some of that pulls And some of that will be fair value positions. And we will manage that book on the most capital Efficient way that we can and dispose of positions as appropriate. And also keeping and yes, Just considering funding costs and the costs of operations, technology, people, etcetera.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. If I may just very briefly on the risk weighted assets, if I just take a very simplistic view and I just assume, Yes, I know the runoff. I can make some assumption about Basel IV. And then OpWisk, Clearly very difficult to predict.

Speaker 7

If I want to be conservative, one should assume that ultimately the risk weighted assets Conservatively should not grow, if at all, could materially decline.

Speaker 2

Kian, it's we can't really comment right now. We are modeling. We are really going through the details of the plan. We need to really Also go through the exercise, I'm sure you appreciate when we put together legal entities, the optimization of all that, it's a fairly Complex operation, so it's I wouldn't go into a territory of projecting risk weighted assets going forward because one, There are 2 elements well, 3 elements. The starting point is a good starting point.

Speaker 2

We know that we can make some adjustments in the next 3 to 4 months, operator was one of the subject. But then you need to go through, 1st of all, what are the efficiencies we take out As we run down assets, yes. What are the efficiency on optimizing legal entity operations? And then what is the growth? Because remember, we are going to grow as well and we have to attach also that prospect into the equation.

Speaker 2

I wouldn't go into too much of a risk weighted asset projection until you see what we tell you in Q3 3 and Q4 for the Q4 results.

Speaker 7

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Flora Boca Hote from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to go back actually to some of the elements you have on this call already, especially the NCL. Maybe trying to help us understand how much of the ROCE in Q1 improvement towards 26 is going to be driven by this unit considering on new the natural runoff here, trying to help us assess already at this stage what how loss making it is today and how loss making it would end up being in If you only consider the natural runoff. And then the other question I wanted to raise is on the cost saves.

Speaker 8

Just to make sure I understand correctly, so you basically have already a target of EUR 3,000,000,000 cost saves on an annualized run rate at the end of this year, but this is compared to the end of 2022, I think. So how much of the annualized EUR 3,000,000,000 Do you kind of already have in the Q2 accounts, please? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Flora. So in terms of take the just to maybe address the second point first. In terms of the cost saves in the in terms of what we're projecting by the end of the year at $3,000,000,000 in terms of what we see already in the Q2, we haven't disclosed that specific number, But I think from just a headcount reductions that I mentioned in my remarks, you could probably consider that there's somewhere More than around half has already started to hit through and what we're already seeing in our underlying results. In terms of the ROCE T1 and how to think about NCL as we go through The process, I mean, for sure, NCL is going to be something that weighs down on our RCT1 Naturally, just given the fact that we have significant at least over the 2020 4 to 2026 period, if you just look

Speaker 9

at the

Speaker 3

natural profile rundown, which is effectively a basis for how we started thinking about the ROCE T1, not the only way we started to model it, but for sure One of the ways that we were thinking about it, there's a drag by definition in the sense that by the end of 'twenty six, you could see in the slide, The natural profile has roughly half going away. Now we can model different scenarios as can you, but we're not going to discuss how we're thinking about it and obviously some of that is still very much unknown. In terms of the cost takeout, we would expect to be taking out The lion's share of the costs in non core and legacy by the time the integration is materially complete by definition, We would do that. There will be we expect some residual carry that we'll have to Take on or continue to run down beyond 2026. So there is some, if you will, negative burn that is

Speaker 8

Okay. This is helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning, and thank you very much for the presentation. I have two numbers questions, please. So the first one is on capitalized software. You have taken these roughly EUR 1,800,000,000 of software impairments in the PPA. Can you give us a rough sense of how much of the remaining amount of capitalized Software remains in your group account as it relates to CS.

Speaker 10

And is there a risk of further impairments given that you want to retain only about 10% of these systems? And the second question relates to your capital requirement. So you show it's still at 10.6 percent CET1 over risk weighted assets. If we were to apply the Current capital metrics that is outlined in Swiss Banking Law, what would be the capital requirement if there was no Fin, transitional forbearance, please. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Okay. Hey, Stefan. In terms of the capitalized software, as you say, $1,800,000,000 was the amount that was in the Credit Suisse AG reported number today, I think In the PPA number overall, in total, there was slightly more about $2,000,000,000 You can look at the CS balance sheet from year end or Q1 or year end and see There was capitalized software in the neighborhood of $3,000,000,000 So effectively what we have done is taken 2 thirds down and have 1 third left on a shorter economic useful life that aligns with how we think about, A, the time it's going to take just to fully decommission everything and B, Leaving what we think we still get value from at the end. So all that has been sort of factored into the PPA. So I don't see necessarily further impairments, but because we now have just what's left about $1,000,000,000 that will have a shorter economic useful life that aligns How we're thinking about the restructuring?

Speaker 2

Yes. Stefan, on CET1, I think when you look at the fully implemented regime in Switzerland, which is not applicable to us Until 2027, it would be around 12.5%, 12.plus. And that's the reason why we raised our CET1 ratio was both to reflect A buffer there to accommodate for the restructuring, but also is a clear, Call it small front running of what we expect to come as a consequence of that and Our and the finalization of Basel III, which is partially already in our books. So You can count on this number to be calibrated with a pretty medium term medium to long term expectation of the current interpretation of all regulatory regimes worldwide, including Switzerland.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Anke Rangan from RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first is on revenue dis synergies. I mean, listening to your comments and especially that you think you can keep this with market share unchanged. Is it something you really think maybe people That's overly concerned and you don't see quite that risk of a revenue dis synergies even if you potentially have to contact Some of this needs more attractive rates or incentivizing your advisers.

Speaker 11

And then secondly, on Slide 15, where you show us The return path and there's this blog about the funding cost efficiencies. And it's something you I guess apart from the dropout of the higher expenses funding and credits was, is there other areas where you see the material benefits from Lowering funding costs and overall group benefits because I guess block us the same size as the cost by sizing. Obviously, you can maybe elaborate a bit more on

Speaker 2

Okay, Anke. Let me take the first question. First of all, I haven't said that we will keep our market share. I think that our ambition is to keep the market share. Now having said that, it's Credit Suisse lost market share and business in the last 12 months or so.

Speaker 2

So what we count on is the fact that We will be able to recapture and regain some of the market share and what you saw lately in the last Couple of months is a good sign of that. But of course, we are not we are realistic and we are also factoring in that we may lose Some market shares because some clients may or may not feel that they want a certain concentration risk. So there is no danger of us Budgeting or planning blue sky scenarios on that one. We are realistic, but that should not be confused with our desire to keep as much as we can.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 3

And then on the second actually, yes, the second question, in terms of Material benefits we see, you obviously highlighted the most significant one, which will be just the takeout of the significant Costs that we were wearing in connection with the PLB and the Ella Plus facilities. But I would say and as I remarked earlier that we expect a positive contribution from the Credit Suisse Wealth Management franchise in our NII in 3Q, and that comes principally from having stabilized the business and net new deposits that are also helping on NII. I would say that's another factor that is helping on the underlying profitability.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, hi. Good morning. Two questions from my side. The first, to play devil's advocate, are there more outflows to come where you kind of already had outflows from clients, but Maybe some longer term structures, partnerships or anything like that take time to see the outflows. And then secondly, For the first time in a while, your CET1 capital is higher than your tangible book value are almost the same.

Speaker 12

So is there now the 15% return on CET1? 1, should they also be broadly similar to ROTE going forward? Or should we expect more moving parts towards, yes, 2026? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Let me take the first questions. I guess, as I mentioned before now, we are on the Wealth Management broader perimeter, I think that what's of course, we may still have a client advisor that's resigned over the last 3, 4 months or that's as they move into a new organization, they may be able to bring Some assets with them. What we see right now is clear that the ability of the people that left a while ago To really move assets is fairly limited. And this is nothing new compared to what UBS went through 10 years ago or more than 10 years ago in recognizing that there is a lot of institutional loyalty of the client base.

Speaker 2

And now that we have stabilized the franchises, of course, we are even stronger in retaining assets. And as I mentioned before, our desire is to re bring back assets. So look, the movements, the gross movements are going to be very To predict, but the net outcome we feel pretty comfortable will be positive.

Speaker 3

And Benjamin, in terms of The return on CET1 versus Rota impact, I'd say there are 2 factors that do Argue in favor of moving in that direction, just not yet, but for sure, on the first one, the denominator effect were bigger. And so that's obviously going to make the difference between the historic Rota versus ROCE T1 smaller by definition. So that denominator effect is now in play and it is helpful as You suggest probably as well contributing to what you observe. The other one though, which has been our historic delta that really has given us pause to move off what we think is a more meaningful return measure for our DTAs. But there, of course, as they amortize down, because these generally, although not exclusively, but generally relate Very old losses that we're now continuing to just chip away at as that balance comes down, Then that's yet another factor that would argue in favor of moving to the other measure.

Speaker 2

Well, by the way, for the foreseeable future and from a the other angle of measuring our capital return flexibility, the CET1 ratio is a better proxy because this is the true binding constraint.

Speaker 12

Enough and very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Hamid Goel from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, thank you. And thanks for a lot of good information. The first question was, I appreciate there's a lot of moving parts. We're going to spend a bit of time trying to kind of update estimates and all that kind of stuff. But in terms of the path for the ROCE T1 to get to that kind of 15% 2026 exit rates.

Speaker 9

Are you able to give Any color in terms of expectation for 2024, 2025 or how you'd like it to trend? And then secondly, just on the costs, it would be great if we get a bit more color on the savings. So I'm just kind of curious things like €10,000,000,000 of growth, but how much net saving or how much reinvestment of that do you expect to do where you found the incremental €2,000,000,000 versus the €8,000,000,000 And also how you're spending the €12,000,000,000 restructuring because it does seem like quite a big number. So just wondering if there could be benefits there as well. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Amit, so as mentioned in terms of color, further color on the trajectory as So we get end of 'twenty three to end of 'twenty six. We'll come back on that, provide update in 3Q as to where we are, but then a much More fulsome perspective after our business planning process is complete by the end of the year into early next year. In terms of the cost savings, Sergio also made a remark in his comments, The gross number is greater than $10,000,000,000 as you highlight, but we will be making Investments, we're going to grow our business, we're going to invest in technology, we're going to also deal with inflationary factors if need be. So, we that's all in the thinking around it.

Speaker 3

Around half of the gross cost saves relate to effectively restructuring the Credit Suisse IB and CRU units and the other half gross relates to The synergies we expect to realize, but then that will be there'll be investments back into the technology and the people to grow the core franchises.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and thanks for all the detail. So firstly, on the fair value markdowns that you've taken there. Related to that, could you give an idea of the maturity remaining on this financial assets and then how we should think about the reversal of those markdowns. So you've highlighted More than $1,500,000,000 for the second half of this year.

Speaker 13

Is that the kind of run rate that we should be expecting going forward? And then secondly, on the NCL, perhaps I can ask it a different way. Do you have a better idea now of what the ultimate cumulative losses might be from the NCL? Would they be less than the €5,000,000,000 maybe that you might have been exposed to under the LPA agreement? That's my question there.

Speaker 13

And then thirdly, might I quickly ask On the domestic side, certainly for some businesses, you have a significant market share. And I wonder If there's any maybe regulatory risk that market share might be looked at and you'd be forced to bring it down to a level which is more palatable to the regulators? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, because you asked 3 questions instead of 2, I'll take the last one. On the market share one, as you know, we got regulatory approvals to basically not be subject to any competitive And that was done just to secure and be able to communicate and to be able to place. Although it was already crystal clear, as it is today, that there is no market share topics for the combined unit in Switzerland. I mean, if you go across the board, Cantonal Banks are larger on any dimensions of relevant personal and commercial banking business in Switzerland. When you measure in terms of branches, we are combined the 3rd largest player.

Speaker 2

So now this is very relevant, but because some people may argue, well, these Cantonal Banks are combined versus you being 1 unit. Well, the fact, the true of the matter is that we compete in those cantons with the local cantonal banks. It's extremely relevant to make that difference. Therefore, we will, of course, contribute, watch what the competitive Authorities have to say about it and put our views into the sheet, but I don't really expect that on a fact based discussions, We will be subject to any limitation or meaningful limitations in respect of our activities going forward.

Speaker 3

Angela, let me just unpack your first and second. I think they're related. So on the first, As we highlighted earlier, we took around $15,000,000,000 of fair value marks on financial assets and liabilities, dollars 12,500,000,000 were We indicated would pull to par because they relate to accrual accounted positions, another roughly $2,500,000,000 relate to fair value positions where we had marks further markdown in light of sort of liquidity model risk other type issues. On the piece that pulls to par, just keep in mind that $4,000,000,000 of that $12,500,000,000 relates to Non core and legacy, so that's important to know and about $8,500,000,000 more in our core businesses. On the core business piece, Generally speaking, we see 3 to 4 years that we should unwind between 70% 80%.

Speaker 3

There'll be a longer tail, especially on some Fixed rate loans that will go longer than that. So we'll see pull to par effects that extend beyond the 3 to 4 year timeframe, but Most of it will accrete to income over the shorter timeframe, as I mentioned. To the NCL point though, Since we have roughly $4,000,000,000 of the pull to par in NCL and roughly $2,000,000,000 in the fair value marks. So you have $5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 of fair value adjustments in NCL. And I think to go to your second question, That's important to understand just given that we think that the positions are appropriately marked and from here, We will continue to consider all of our optionality in terms of running down the portfolio, as Sergio mentioned earlier, in the most capital and cost efficient way, but we think the positions are being carried at appropriate levels presently.

Speaker 13

That's great. That's really helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question is from Adam Terlak from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Good morning. Thank you for the questions. I want to get under the hood a little bit more in Wealth Management. Firstly, on the CS business acquired, clearly, there are some business exits to worry about From that you see non core in kind of the Wealth Management unit. Can you give us a sense of what the revenue attached to that might look like?

Speaker 14

But also any detail on AT1 cost savings that's come through the NII in that division as well? And then secondly, the competitive environment. I noticed in your GWM business, UBS stand alone costs are up on lower revenues. I just want to know kind of what the cost is to retain management at this point, whether you're seeing By the competitive landscape on the RM side or the adviser side, but also in your deposit side, What sort of campaigns have you been running to reattract deposits? And how easy or difficult has that been in the current rate and deposit environment.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Adam. On the second one, Would just say in terms of GWM costs, so there's a very significant positive operating leverage outside of the U. S. So that's important to note. This is in the GWM sorry, in the UBS subgroup GWM, Very significant positive operating leverage.

Speaker 3

We're investing for growth in that business, but that business as well has Saw a strong NII performance and had Strong PBT growth as I highlighted in my comments earlier. As I also highlighted, it's more on the GWM overall side, just the fact that We've seen a lot of cash sorting and rotation on NII in the Americas and that sort of pulled The Americas revenue down reasonably significantly, say quarter on quarter, year on year. And as a result, We see that negative operating leverage, but we're continuing to invest in that business across the board. And so some of that as well contributes to the higher costs. On your deposit Campaign question, but I would say that like any bank, we are value deposits.

Speaker 3

We value deposits in the win back context In Wealth Management, we also just value deposits to fund our business, loan growth, etcetera. So There's nothing I've seen that I would call out there in terms of deposit beaters that have moved in a direction I would consider to be anything other than what we see across peers. In terms of the acquired, you were asking business exits and the revenue attached. At this point, we have in terms of what's being expected To move into non core and legacy that was highlighted on one of the earlier slides, the revenue attached with that business is less than $100,000,000 on an annualized basis in terms of net revenues, in terms of what's moving across and that's of course not risk adjusted for and so that needs to be considered. In terms of AT1 cost savings that hit through the business from what had been, I'd say anything there has really just been captured in the Credit Suisse corporate center as an offset potentially to the inflated costs.

Speaker 3

So I would expect that that will normalize Now as the businesses come together.

Speaker 14

So funding issues are set in the corporate center and not undervalued?

Speaker 2

Can you repeat? It wasn't clear, sorry.

Speaker 14

Is there any funding noise AT1 versus liquidity Facility results in the corporate center rather than anywhere else.

Speaker 6

Yes. That

Speaker 3

was our understanding from Credit Suisse's practice pre acquisition, yes.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank

Speaker 2

you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Coon from Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good morning. It's Andrew Coon from Citi. Thanks for taking my questions. 2, if I may. Firstly, I wanted to come back to follow-up on the PPA pool to par effect But in relationship to the restructuring charges, you made comment that out of the period at the end 26, I think restructuring charges will be largely but not wholly offset by the PPA porta pota effect.

Speaker 10

And then in your later comments, you talked about $12,500,000,000 of pull to par effect, of which $4,500,000,000 would be non core And that most of that will be recognized in the 3 to 4 year timeframe. So can we assume restructuring charges Of the magnitude of 12.5 percent? And can you give us a feel for the timing of those relative to the PPA pull to par? And then the second question is on Slide 29. You provide a useful quarterly trajectory Going minus 0.3 in Q2, and you talk about breakeven in Q3.

Speaker 10

But you also flagged EUR 750,000,000 of savings, $550,000,000 of funding cost savings. There's a $650,000,000 arguably one off ECL charge On the non credit impaired CS portfolio this quarter, so just trying to understand that going from minus 0 point 0 even with all of those additional benefits Q on Q, what's the offset? I guess there'll be some seasonality on revenues, a bit of a decline in NII, Any more color there?

Speaker 3

So hi, Andrew. In terms of the Yes. In terms of I'll take the second point first. In terms of the story on the underlying profitability, yes, I mean, Just to be very clear that the cost saves that we expect to see by the end of 2023 of $3,000,000,000 which we think you can price into 2024. Some of that has been realized, but as I would the way I would think about it is there is work It's ongoing and we expect that the greater than $3,000,000,000 number is something that we'll see at the end of the year Hitting through, I would continue to reemphasize the funding cost point that was in 2Q that will benefit 3Q and fully in 4Q that helps and then the stabilization of as flows and all that will sort of hit through as we go on an underlying basis.

Speaker 3

And as I said, we expect to breakeven in the Q3 coming out of roughly 300,000,000 plus improvement and then to be positive in 4Q for the reasons that I mentioned. In terms of the restructuring, you asked about, we'll come back in further details In terms of how much restructuring specifically there'll be, we're giving a perspective that we expect the number to be broadly offset by the pull to par effects. But at this point in time, we're going to need to detail that out through

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Operator

The last question is from Vishal Shah from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi. Thank you so much for your questions. My first one is on Wealth Management, just wanted to get a sense on how you are assessing the business overlap In that segment or you've had further chance to sort of look at Different regions and how to respond to all the ongoing competitive pressures and in terms of relationship managers And then sort of bankers in that segment. So if you could give a bit of an update on that side. And then the second one is on The Investment Bank, the CS non core perimeter of $55,000,000,000 I know in one of your slides you provided a natural runoff rate, But I was just trying to get a sense if you could provide any sort of color in terms of what is your sort of ambition on Actively winding down this perimeter in terms of time line, I.

Speaker 15

E, could we expect the next 2 years basically by 2025, Broadly most of this rundown to be done, is that a fair assumption or are you looking at it in a bit of a different way? Thank you so

Speaker 3

much. Hey, Vishal. I mean, I think on this on that second question, we've addressed that in the sense that We offer the natural rundown just given, of course, we have to take care and ensure that we're protecting our counterparties and we're doing things in the best interests of the firm. And so on these positions that we will look strategically to exit them as quickly As possible, but at this point, I would say we'll come back and give you progress as we've done already in 2Q in terms of The actual RWA reduction relative to the natural runoff profile, we'll continue to do that. And to the extent we can give more color Through any through our planning process, we will.

Speaker 3

But again, these are positions where we think naturally there'll be Strategic exits and opportunities that arise and not something we'll be disclosing. In terms of your first Question on wealth management and assessing business overlaps. I mean, in general, the way we approached integration is to look at Credit Suisse as adding value In a lot of the areas in which we already operate, but also as Sergio mentioned, areas where We have less of a presence. Brazil was mentioned. There are important parts of the Middle East where that's the case, important parts of Southeast Asia, Also much bigger in Europe overall.

Speaker 3

So in terms of assessing the overlaps, I mean, in the end of the day, Relationship managers have their client relationships and we want to retain them all. And of course, we're looking at how to Manage the business in the most efficient and effective way. I would make one additional comment, which is very important, which is that Iqbal had announced the area market heads on a combined basis. Now it's a very important just in the last several weeks So it was in a comment Sergio made as well, because when we start integrating how we Approach the market and so we're in the market on an integrated basis, which of course just took time just Even though we've moved quickly in the 2.5 months since we've closed, to be in the market on an integrated basis having market heads that have now been decided across Wealth Management on a combined and integrated basis is quite a step that helps us to manage some of the business overlaps and competitive pressures that you were asking about.

Operator

Okay.

Speaker 7

Thank you

Speaker 2

so much. This was the last answer Certain questions and we I'm sure we're going to have a chance to Stay in touch between now and November 7 when we announce the Q3 results. For the time being, thank you for dialing in. Thanks for your questions. And well, as I said, looking forward to staying in touch.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q and A session for analysts and investors is over. You may disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with the media Q and A session at 10:45 CET. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
UBS Group Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00