American Public Education Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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August 8, 2023

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Sheryl, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Public Education, Inc. Report Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

Operator

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Ryan Koren, AVP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to American Public Education's conference call to discuss to the Q2 2023 financial and operating results. Joining me on the call today are Angela Seldin, President and Chief Executive Officer Rick Sunderland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Steve Summers, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer. Materials for the call today are available under the Events and Presentations section of the APEI website. Statements made during this conference call and any accompanying presentation Regarding APEI and its subsidiaries that are not historical facts may be forward looking statements based on current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections.

Speaker 2

Forward looking

Speaker 1

statements may sometimes be identified by words like anticipate, believe, seek, could, estimate, Expect, can, may, plan, should, will, would and similar or opposite words. Forward looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding for registrations and enrollments, revenue, earnings and EBITDA and other earnings guidance, initiatives to improve NCLEX pass rates and reposition Rasmussen University for growth and other company initiatives, including with respect to leadership changes, future competition and demand and our cost savings efforts. Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such to the Q and A. These include, among others, our dependence on the effectiveness of our ability to attract students who persist and are likely to succeed, Our inability to effectively market our programs or expand into new markets the reduction, elimination, suspension or disruption of tuition assistance Changing market demands, economic and market conditions, our inability to meet regulatory and creditor requirements and the impacts thereof, Challenges with acquisitions, our inability to meet our cost savings goals, risks related to our debt and preferred stock and risks described in our presentation, today's press release, our Form 10 ks for 2022, our Form 10 Q filed today and other SEC filings.

Speaker 1

The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward looking statement for any reason unless required by law. This presentation contains references to non GAAP financial information. Reconciliation between the non GAAP financial measures we use and the most directly comparable GAAP measures is located in the appendix to our presentation and in our earnings release. Management believes that our presentation of non GAAP financial information provides useful supplemental information to investors regarding our results of operations And should only be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or superior to any measure of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Angela Seldon.

Speaker 1

Angie, please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Ryan. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our call to to our Q2 2023 results for American Public Education. APEI continues to deliver on the financial guidance provided during our 2023 earnings calls. In this Q2 of 2023, we delivered revenue of 147 point to $2,000,000 which is at the top of the guidance range and adjusted EBITDA of $8,800,000 which is 38% above the high end of the guidance range. This is the result of strong continued enrollment growth at American Public University System, Hondros College of Nursing, Rasmussen University Online and Graduate School USA.

Speaker 3

These trends are continuing into the Q3, and we are confident in our ability throughout the remainder of 2023 to drive year over year revenue and EBITDA growth as well as margin expansion across these 3 education units and Rasmussen Online. We acknowledge that the acquisition of Rasmussen has not met our expectations. We believe we have isolated the overall causes of the challenges, including post COVID market and operational headwinds in pre licensure ADN Nursing and simultaneously experiencing a significant exit of its senior leadership team. Despite these setbacks, we continue to believe that there is considerable value in the Rasmus in the business. With new leadership in place since mid April, we see Rasmussen improvement initiatives gaining traction.

Speaker 3

However, as that new team evaluated the near term business momentum, they made adjustments to the timing and velocity of Rasmussen's recovery, which contributed to a non cash impairment charge, which Rick Sunderland will discuss in more detail. Not including the impact of these non cash charges, Net income available to common and diluted earnings per share was better than the high end of our guidance range. Here are some of the highlights from Rasmussen's improvement initiatives. Rasmussen online enrollments are up year over year for the 4th consecutive quarter, while non nursing enrollments posted their 1st positive growth quarter since 1Q 2019. For the 15 Rasmussen campuses with ADN programs, where we received quarterly NCLEX results, 14 posted meaningful improvements in 2Q 'twenty three.

Speaker 3

In addition, Rasmus and campuses have continued to diversify from their historical reliance on the ADN RN program for the majority of student enrollments, and particularly in the markets where enrollments are capped. By enrolling students in other approved nursing in Allied Health Programs. 3Q 2023 enrollment resulted in a 14% increase in new students in those programs as compared to the prior year period. In August, to better align with the current revenue profile of the business. We started rightsizing the cost structure of both Rasmussen and the entire APEI enterprise.

Speaker 3

These actions are expected to reduce run rate expenses by $12,400,000 per year and will result in approximately $2,800,000 of pretax cash expenses associated with employee severance costs in Q3 and an in year 2023 benefit of $2,100,000 net of the severance. Additionally, beginning in the Q3, we plan to reduce certain non labor costs by approximately $800,000 to $1,100,000 on an annualized basis. In connection with these cost savings initiatives, our APEI Board of Directors Is also taking certain steps to reduce our overall governance structure costs, including making no changes to the APEI Board compensation structure for 2023, which is the 3rd consecutive year of no change, and taking steps to reduce the size of our Board. 2 of our longest standing Board members, Jean Halley and Doctor. Barbara Kirshan are not going to stand for reelection at our next annual meeting, And our Board intends to reduce the size of the Board at that time rather than filling the vacancies.

Speaker 3

Finally, our liquidity and capital position remains strong as we continue to generate free cash flow, which has enhanced our liquidity position to $113,000,000 of unrestricted cash at the end of 2Q 'twenty 3 and a $0 net debt position. Now I'd like to provide more details regarding our education units, starting with APUS. Our APUS team is driving net course registration growth and overall margin expansion due to a modest price increase and improved marketing efficiencies. Overall, net course registrations were up 5.7% during 2Q 2023 compared to the prior year period, including up 8% in active duty military and nearly 10% in the veterans channel. The APUS team is focused on continuing to grow to the Veterans channel, while also executing on plans to grow in the non military channel.

Speaker 3

As previously mentioned, APUS instituted tuition and fee increases for its non military and veteran students in April of 2023. Even with these tuition fee increases, we believe that APUS' tuition and fees remain lower than the average in state to cost at public universities and our programs offer exceptional return on higher education investment for our students. The modest select increases in tuition combined with the tighter focus on marketing spend and other costs Allowed APUS to increase its EBITDA margin by 600 basis points to 28% from 22% just a year ago And up from 25% in the Q1 of 2023. We expect continued year over year margin expansion at APUS for the balance of to 2023. Going forward, we expect APUS net course registrations to be in the range of +6 percent to +8 percent in 3Q 'twenty three compared to the prior year period.

Speaker 3

Turning to Hondros, 2Q 'twenty three enrollment With approximately 3,000 students, an increase of more than 22% compared to the prior year period. 65% of Hondros enrollment is in its PN program as Hondros offers a laddered PN to ADN curriculum in Ohio and Hondros is currently licensed to offer only PN in our Indianapolis and Detroit campuses. Our expansion into Michigan continues to be a huge success with over 100 new starts in the summer of 2023, which brings the total number of enrolled students to over 275 as of the Q3. This growth and demand are almost entirely grassroots driven, resulting in low marketing costs through the 1st 3 quarters of 2023. We expect in future quarters for those costs to normalize as the market matures.

Speaker 3

Similar to progress on the NCLEX RN results at Rasmussen, I'm also pleased to share that we have seen meaningful improvements in the first time NCLEX pass rates for our ADN RN program at Hondros on a year over year basis. Our PN programs continue to surpass the necessary benchmarks in Ohio and our 2023 pass rates exceed the benchmarks in Indiana. As of yet, there are no graduates in Detroit, so no scores yet to share. Strong continued enrollment growth has Also allowed an expansion of margin from minus 10% to positive 1% and slightly positive EBITDA in 2Q 'twenty three. Hondros' 3Q 'twenty three enrollment is 2,800 students, an increase of 17% compared to the prior year period and does reflect some disruptive effects of the move of the Dayton campus.

Speaker 3

This represents 14 consecutive quarters of year over year enrollment growth. And with a focus on reducing operating costs, we expect continued revenue growth and year over year margin expansion to the end of the year at Hondros. At Graduate School, It continues to deliver improvements to both the top and bottom line. Revenue increased 70% from the prior year period to $7,500,000 while EBITDA increased almost $2,500,000 to positive $1,000,000 in the quarter compared with the prior year period. Graduate school is highly seasonal with the 2nd and third quarters performing the strongest.

Speaker 3

We expect solid revenue growth and margin expansion on a full year basis in 2023. Turning again to Rasmussen. With the hiring of permanent leadership during the first half of twenty twenty three, initiatives to return RASMUSSEN to growth and profitability are gaining traction. As a reminder, at the end of 2022, we reorganized the business into 2 divisions, to Rasmussen Online and Rasmussen Campuses. This was done to provide more visibility to the sustainable growth and profitability for the fully online programs and the campus based nursing and allied health programs.

Speaker 3

It was also done to dedicate more resources to improving student educational experiences, specifically for the campus based nursing programs to our Center For Educational Readiness to improve student mastery and increase NCLEX first time pass rates. And finally, We did the reorganization into 2 divisions to reduce operating costs. In 3Q 'twenty three, Total new student starts are positive year over year at Rasmussen, driven by improved marketing to increased enrollment. RASSS and online student enrollment has increased on a year over year basis for the 4th consecutive quarter. And additionally, Rasmussen saw a 14% increase in new student starts in Q3 'twenty three in campus based non ADN Nursing and Allied Health Programs.

Speaker 3

Due to tightened admissions policies across all campuses and enrollment caps in Illinois and the Twin Cities, We are still experiencing declining enrollment for Rasmussen's campus based ADN Nursing programs. Next, as I shared a few minutes ago, NCLEX scores meaningfully improved in 2Q 'twenty three. Starting first with Minnesota, all 4 Twin Cities ADN campuses improved on a year over year basis And the remaining 3 out state programs surpass the state thresholds. Our 2 Kansas campuses Have also seen strong NCLEX results for both the ADN and BSN programs, both exceeding the state standards. In Florida, 3 of 5 campuses met the state standard.

Speaker 3

And in Illinois, while the campuses fell short of the state benchmark, we saw significant improvement. We continue to provide all students with the resources both on campus and remotely to properly prepare their respective NCLEX exam to our Center For Nursing Excellence. Before turning the call over to Rick Sunderland to review our 2nd quarter results and Q3 outlook in more detail. I'd like to comment more broadly on our outlook regarding Rasmussen, specifically and nursing education generally. We continue to believe both based on strong secular trends and Hondros enrollment momentum that pre licensure nursing education remains a promising long term market for enrollment growth.

Speaker 3

Those secular trends for nursing education include a projected chronic shortage of nurses in the United States with close to 250,000 annual openings over the next decade. This shortage was exacerbated by the stresses placed on the nursing to the pandemic, which has precipitated more exits and early retirements from the nursing field. With 22 campuses focused on educating new nurses, we believe Rasmussen remains positioned to help address to this chronic need and educate more new nurses to join the workforce. We are optimistic about Rasmussen's role in the Nursing and Allied Health Ecosystem, and we remain committed to its mission to students, faculty and staff. With that, let me hand the call over to our CFO, Rick Sunderland.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Angie. Looking at Q2 2023 financial results. Total revenue for the Q2 was 147,200,000 Down 2% from the prior year period due to an $11,900,000 or 19% decline in revenue at Rasmussen, partially offset by increases in revenue at each of the 3 other education units. At APUS, Revenue was approximately $74,000,000 for the 2nd quarter, up $3,700,000 or 5.2% compared to the prior year, Due primarily to continued growth in net course registrations for military students utilizing TA and the impact of our tuition increase for non military students. This registration growth was achieved on a lower advertising spend.

Speaker 2

Advertising spend for the quarter was approximately $1,100,000 lower than the prior year. Year to date advertising spend is approximately to $2,700,000 lower than the prior year period. APUS EBITDA for the quarter was $20,200,000 compared to $15,200,000 in the prior year, An increase of $5,000,000 or 33 percent. EBITDA margin for the quarter was 28% compared to 22% in the prior year. In the Q2, RAS Boston revenue was approximately $52,000,000 a decrease of $11,900,000 or 19%.

Speaker 2

This decline was primarily due to a 12% decrease in total enrollment and the continued change in student mix to more online students, Which generally pay lower tuition than Rasmussen's on ground nursing students, partially offset by tuition increases in certain programs, Which took effect in January 2023 to help offset increased costs. Excluding the impairment in both periods, Rasmussen EBITDA for the quarter was an EBITDA loss of $7,100,000 compared to positive EBITDA of $4,500,000 in the prior year quarter, A decrease of $11,600,000 EBITDA margin for the quarter was negative 14% compared to positive 7% in the prior year. The reduction in EBITDA and EBITDA margin is due to the high fixed cost structure of Rasmus' campus based operations, Coupled with the decline in enrollment and revenue. In addition to the labor cost reduction initiatives described by Angie, At API, we plan additional non labor related cost reductions of approximately $800,000 to $1,100,000 for the remainder of the year and remain focused on improving profitability at Rasmussen in the coming quarters. At Hondros, Q2 2023 revenue was approximately $14,000,000 an increase of $2,800,000 or 24% compared to the prior year period, driven by higher total enrollment at higher tuition levels.

Speaker 2

Similar to Rasmussen, Hondros implemented a 5% increase in tuition and fees, which took effect in the Q2 to help offset increased costs. With this increased revenue and improving scale, Hondros was able to deliver positive EBITDA for the 2nd quarter, an improvement over the EBITDA loss in the Q2 2022. Graduate school revenue included in corporate and other with $7,300,000 for the Q2 2023, up $3,100,000 or 72% compared to the prior year. Overall, on a consolidated basis, 8PEI adjusted EBITDA was $8,800,000 for the quarter compared to $14,500,000 in the prior year period. The current quarter results represent an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6% compared to 10% in the prior year quarter.

Speaker 2

Net loss per diluted share for the current quarter was a loss of $2.93 compared to a loss per diluted share of $5.82 in the prior year period. 2nd quarter costs and expenses include a non cash impairment charge of $64,000,000 to reduce the carrying value of RU segment goodwill in intangible assets and to reflect the corresponding tax impact. This compares to a 145,000,000 non cash impairment charge in the prior year period. Given the calculation's consideration of the time value of money and RAS performance this year, The impairment reflects the delayed recovery and return to profitability at Rasmussen. Importantly, our model recognizes the essential work Now underway to expand the programs offered at campuses and to deliver cost containment initiatives to right size the institution.

Speaker 2

When adjusting for the impact of these non cash charges at Rasmussen, net loss per diluted share for the current quarter was approximately a loss of $0.25 per diluted share, which was better than the high end of our guidance range. Total cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2023 $139,000,000 an increase of $9,900,000 from year end 2022. Restricted cash at June 30 was approximately $27,000,000 And continues to be almost entirely comprised of a restricted certificate of deposit that secures a letter of credit for Rasmussen with the Department of Education. The increase in cash was due primarily to payments from Army received during the 1st 6 months, which totaled approximately $42,000,000 Of which $20,900,000 related to periods prior to 2023, offset partially by the use of cash at Rasmus and Andros and to other changes in working capital. API's remaining principal on the term loan is approximately $99,000,000 at June 30.

Speaker 2

With unrestricted cash of approximately $113,000,000 net debt remains at 0. Additionally, there are no borrowings under API's $20,000,000 to revolving credit facility, which remains fully available at this time. Turning now to the Q3 2023 outlook. API's outlook for the Q3 of 2023 is as follows. APUS total net course registrations are expected to be in the range of plus 6% to plus 8% or a registration range of 90,500 registrations to 92,500 registrations.

Speaker 2

At Rasmussen and Hondros, 3rd quarter student enrollments are actual because of the quarterly starts at these schools. At Rasmussen, 3rd quarter total non nursing enrollment increased 5% to approximately 7,700 students, While total nursing student enrollment decreased 25% year over year to approximately 5,700 students for an aggregate Rasmussen enrollment decline of approximately 10% year over year to approximately 13,500 students. At Hondros, 3rd quarter total student enrollment increased by 17% year over year to approximately 2,800 students. In the Q3 of 2023, consolidated revenue is expected to be between 148,300,000 to $150,300,000 The company expects the net loss to common shareholders to be between a loss of $5,700,000 and a loss of $4,300,000 and the loss per diluted share of a loss of $0.32 to a loss of $0.24 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $8,400,000 and $10,400,000 for the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

With that operator, we would like to open the line for questions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Jasper Bibb with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to follow-up on the impairment charge. So I think earlier you mentioned that the new Rasmussen leadership Might be thinking that the recovery there is going to be longer than previously anticipated. How should investors think about, I guess, your updated timeline, the return for Rasmussen to enrollment growth and profitability?

Speaker 2

We see positive momentum in enrollment, particularly at Rasmus and online, moving the overall enrollment trend to positive.

Speaker 4

Okay. And that but as a whole, including the nursing business, do you have any kind of Timeline for when the decline there might start to level off or because I think that's probably the main contributor as far as an operating leverage perspective.

Speaker 3

Well, Jasper, it's Angie. Thanks for the question. We, as You probably saw in the PowerPoint materials, have seen a quarter over quarter sequential improvement in the enrollment as a percentage of the prior year period. And so we while we can't say one data point Makes a trend. We do believe that there is stabilization in the Rasmussen business.

Speaker 3

As Rick mentioned, we have seen not only a 4th quarter now of our online enrollment growth being positive, but also a 14% increase in the non ADN Nursing to start. And that is really a deliberate strategy on the Rasmussen team's part to direct marketing dollars towards campus based programs that, are available to enroll students in and, allow us to continue to fill the campuses and drive profitability from the campuses without having to exclusively rely on the ADN RN program as was the case in the past. So we can't yet put a pin on when we see the nursing enrollment at Rasmussen Flatten out and become positive, but we do see really important signals, enrollment momentum across those other categories and really importantly, the improvement in our NCLEX first time pass rates, which will also signal to prospective students the strength of the Rapaceon, both ADN as well as LPN and BSN nursing programs.

Speaker 4

Okay. Yes. Thanks for that. And then just on the Q3 guidance, like how should we think about the underlying margin assumptions for the main portfolio schools there? You cited the really strong margins in APUS this quarter.

Speaker 4

Is that going to be the primary driver of, I guess, the upside outlook there?

Speaker 2

Yes, that's exactly right, Jasper.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then just one more on Rasmussen. On the note in the 10 Q about the Bloomington accreditation review, How should we think about the timeline there to resolve that and what that could mean for the Rasmuson segment?

Speaker 3

Specifically, the RASM and leadership team is engaging with those different regulatory and licensing bodies in the state of Minnesota. And We believe that we will be able to continue the dialogue with to those different governing bodies to be able to come to a resolution that we believe will allow us not only to continue to grow the BSN program, which has really tremendous NCLEX pass rates, But also to continue to moderate the enrollment in the Twin Cities to campuses around the ADN program, which has been the primary focus of the of those governing bodies' attention to the results from our ADN program. So it's limited to the 4 Twin Cities campuses, Which already have quarterly enrollment caps, that we have already seen a really meaningful part of enrollment decline taking place because of the enrollment caps that we've imposed on those campuses over the last 4 quarters.

Speaker 4

Right. That makes sense. Last question for me. Any update on AATIS and compliance with the revised ninety-ten threshold there for this fiscal year?

Speaker 2

Yes, Jasper, it's Rick. Yes, we've talked about this over several calls and everyone's aware that the change in the rule in January adding, TA and VA moved APUS closer to the 90% threshold. We continue to work the initiatives that we've previously discussed, B2B, Employer reimbursement, I don't know if we've talked about international as a particular initiative, but we have Some beginnings in that arena also, all designed to improve the 10 ratio.

Speaker 4

Okay. Appreciate the detail there. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Paris with Barrington Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I have a couple, but sort of in reverse order. In your response to the 9010 question just asked, I haven't looked at your Q yet, but What was the 9010 of APUS in 2022 Under the previous methodology, I think you probably disclosed that in the 10 Q, right?

Speaker 2

It was in the 10 ks, Alex, you're talking about the prior year? Yes. Yes. On a different basis, it was at 38%.

Speaker 5

Okay. And roughly what percentage of students at APUS are military or veteran?

Speaker 2

Well, you can look at the concentration note in the financials. Of course, that's on an accrual basis And the ninety-ten calculation is done on a cash basis. I think, Alex, we routinely say that For new students, they self identify as active duty military at something like 65%.

Speaker 5

And what's your so under the new methodology, That will be for fiscal years completed in 2023. So next year's 10 ks will have a different basis for calculating that. Are you comfortable given your exposure, given your initiatives that you'll come in underneath those targets?

Speaker 2

We have a good team at Apis, Alex, who know how to work the various channels, including the Channels that deliver on the 10th side of the equation.

Speaker 5

Great. And is there any value to like Bringing in Graduate School USA underneath APUS to give you more TEN revenue For that calculation, is that something you could do or would consider doing?

Speaker 2

Alex, we certainly looked at that. Graduate School It's a training company, adult learning company that provides courses to the federal workforce. And so those most typically end up being federal dollars. And when you look at the new rules, The definitions are very broad as to what constitutes a federal dollar thus placing those dollars in the $90 side of the calculation.

Speaker 5

Got you. All right. That's a good answer. Thanks for that. Moving to my primary question, though, I want to congratulate you on improving NCLEX scores, Particularly in the Twin Cities in Illinois, where the issue was most profound.

Speaker 5

What have you done there to improve NCLEX scores over the year to date period or over the last 12 months?

Speaker 3

Alex, it's Angie. I'll start and then happy to open it up to others. As we discussed 2 calls ago, we launched 2 specific initiatives. 1, what we call the Center For Educational Readiness, And that was really making sure that the necessary faculty and clinicals were available at the time the students needed them to complete their hands on learning experience. And then the second was to operationalize our and purpose builds learning experiences, either remediation tools or remediation coursework, to 1 on one tutoring, whatever it takes to help those students be able to overcome those shortcomings in their learning experience.

Speaker 3

And so we think having focused on both the overall learning environment and experience, creating a better to the learning environment through more predictable clinicals and at the same time tailoring the remediation experiences the students has led to those improvements.

Speaker 5

Great. That's helpful. I guess that's the only those are my questions for now. Thank you very much and I'll get back in the queue.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thanks, Alex.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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American Public Education Q2 2023
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