First Merchants Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 25, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to First Merchants Corporation's 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, management would like to remind you that today's call contains forward looking statements with respect to the future performance and financial condition of First Merchants Corporation that involves risks and uncertainties. Further information is contained within the press release, which we encourage you to review. Additionally, management would refer to non GAAP measurements, which are intended to supplement, but not substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains financial and or other quantitative information to be discussed today as well as reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP measures.

Operator

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now turn the conference over to Mr. Mark Hardwick, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Hardwick, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to the First Merchants Full Year 2023 Conference Call. Thanks for the introduction and for covering the forward looking statement on Page 2. We released our earnings today at approximately 8 am Eastern, And you can access today's slides by following the link on the 3rd page of our earnings release. On Page 3 of our slides, you will see today's presenters in our bios To include our President, Mike Stewart Chief of Credit Officer, John Martin and Chief Financial Officer, Michelle Kebiezki. On Page 4, We have a few highlights of the year to include final total assets of $18,300,000,000 $12,500,000,000 of total loans, $14,800,000,000 of total deposits and $7,300,000,000 of assets under advisement.

Speaker 1

On Slide 5, if you look at the bullet points under our 4th quarter results, we grew loans during the quarter by 6.6% annualized with a new and renewed loan yield of 8.01%. We also increased deposits by 4.8% during the same period and we reported Q4 2023 EPS of $0.71 per share or $0.81 or $0.87 when adjusted for several one time expense items incurred during the quarter. Those items include $12,700,000 in one time charges that include the FDIC special assessment due to several bank failures in March of 'twenty three, Severance expense related to a voluntary early retirement incentive plan that we offered to employees in the Q4 of 2023 and the write off of a lease agreement due to our Indianapolis regional headquarter move. Moving down to the bottom half of the page, you will see year to date bullet points. We've delivered net income of $221,900,000 and produced $3.73 of earnings per share for the year.

Speaker 1

When adjusted for the same one time expenditures, That EPS totaled $3.89 During a year where safety and soundness became the highest priority of stakeholders, we effectively repositioned our balance sheet to prioritize cash, liquidity and capital. The company's liquidity position improved by $585,000,000 as cash increased $300,000,000 and borrowings declined 285,000,000 Our tangible common equity increased by $222,000,000 during the year, driving our TCE ratio up from 7.37 percent 1 year ago to 8.44 percent at year end. We maintain strong credit quality and top decile allowance for loan losses totaling 1.64%. I'm proud of our team of driven collaborative and high character employees for rising to the call to deliver an enhanced and resilient balance sheet, while also adding high quality risk aware loans at a clip of just over 5% and for delivering net deposit growth of 3% for the year. Before handing over the presentation, I would just like to thank our 2,000 plus colleagues for tackling a turbulent 2023 head on and for delivering top quartile results that we can all be proud of.

Speaker 2

Mike? Yes. Thank you, Mark, and good morning to all. Our business strategy that is outlined on slide 6 remains unchanged and is a reminder that the financial results we deliver represent The durability of our business model within the primary markets of Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, we serve diverse locations in both stable rural markets and in growing metro markets. We are a commercially focused organization across all these business segments And collectively, the First Merchants team is actively engaged in all of our communities delivering the solutions listed on this page.

Speaker 2

Throughout 2023, We have remained committed to our business strategy of organic growth of loans, deposits and fee income, attracting, retaining and building our team investing in technology platforms that enhance the client experience and delivering top tier financial metrics. Let's turn to Slide 7. This slide validates Our ability to deliver organic growth of both loans and deposits. The annualized total loan growth for the 4th quarter was 6 0.6%, highlighted

Speaker 3

by the

Speaker 2

8% growth in commercial portfolio. During our last quarter call, I noted the strong commercial pipeline And that pipeline did materialize from our C and I focused regional bankers and from our investment real estate team. John has more detail to share around the portfolio mix and his detailed analysis show that nearly 70% of our total Loan growth of 2023 comes from the commercial segment, which is consistent with our global portfolio mix of 75% commercial and the rest consumer. Within the consumer portfolio, we have residential mortgage, HELOC, installment and private banking relationships. And during the Q4, that portfolio grew at a 2.7% annualized rate.

Speaker 2

So again, for 2023, the total loan portfolio grew at 5.1%. Mid to high single digit loan growth is the expectation moving forward in 2024. While the commercial loan pipeline ended the year lower than the Q3, the current pipeline is sufficient to achieve our expected organic growth goals. As you know, loan growth can be choppy throughout any given period. The quarterly commercial loan growth trends have gained momentum since April, Post the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, we were purposeful on how we navigated our bank through those uncertain times and a loan portfolio sale and liquidity management are some examples, but the commercial loan growth improved each quarter since March with the Q4 at its high watermark for the year.

Speaker 2

The overall economic environment in

Operator

the Midwest

Speaker 2

inclusive of the competitive landscape affirms my expectation of mid high single digit loan growth with improving loan yields. Mark highlighted that our new loan yields exceeded 8% during the quarter, which is an increase of 13 basis points from the prior. And Michelle has more detail to share on the positive trends in loan yields and loan types. The quarter saw total deposits growing 4.8 percent annualized and 3.1% for the full year 2023. The consumer deposit portfolio showed continued strong growth at over 11% annualized.

Speaker 2

This growth is inclusive of both the branch network and our private banking team. The consumer team continues to deliver consistent low cost Depository base. The commercial deposit growth during the quarter was also strong. This was the only quarter throughout 2023 that commercial deposits grew. Both teams are focused on relationship banking and building market share.

Speaker 2

And again, this page demonstrates that the 4th quarter delivered balance sheet growth. As Mark stated in the press release, our bank's liquidity improved throughout 2023. We have a strong capital position. Our team built a resilient balance sheet. So we enter 2024 positioned for continued growth.

Speaker 2

Our team is positioned for that growth and our underwriting remains supportive, consistent and disciplined. So I'll turn the call over to Michelle to review in more detail the composition of our balance sheet and the drivers of our income statement. Michelle?

Speaker 4

On Slide 8, here's our 4th quarter results. On line 1, you will see regrew assets by $313,000,000 during the quarter, representing a very productive quarter for the company. $203,000,000 was from loans, which Mike just covered and $98,000,000 was an increase in investments, reflecting an increase in value of available for sale securities. Deposits on Line 4 grew $175,000,000 leading to strong equity growth of $155,000,000 which you can see on Line 5. Pretax pre provision earnings when adjusted for the one time charges Mark described of $12,700,000 totaled $61,100,000 for the quarter.

Speaker 4

Adjusted pre tax pre provision return on assets was 1.33% and adjusted pre tax Pre provision return on equity was 11.47%, all of which continue to reflect strong profitability metrics. Tangible book value per share increased 11.7 percent from last quarter, totaling $25.06@yearend. Slide 9 shows the year to date results. The variances on balance sheet lines 1 through 5 display the work the team has done and shifting the earning asset mix through the year, which resulted in a robust increase in yield on earning assets of 1.46% year over year. Year to date pre tax pre provision earnings excluding the one time charges I mentioned previously totaled 275,400,000 Adjusted pretaxpreprovision return on assets was 1.51% and adjusted pretaxpreprovision return on equity with 12.95 percent.

Speaker 4

Tangible book value per share increased 3.61 or 17% over prior year reflecting strong year to date earnings. Excluding the noise from mark to market adjustments on the securities, The company has experienced tangible book value growth every year for the last 10 years and we are pleased to deliver another year of growth in 2023. A graph of this is included on Slide 23. Details of our investment portfolio are disclosed on Slide 10. We sold $43,000,000 in bonds this quarter resulting in a loss of $2,300,000 We have sold nearly $400,000,000 in bonds throughout the year.

Speaker 4

Total cash flow generated from the bond portfolio in 2023 including sales, principal pay downs and interest Totaled approximately $660,000,000 creating liquidity to put to work in a loan portfolio, pay down higher rate wholesale funding and to ensure we have a solid Cash position. Expected cash flows from scheduled principal and interest payments and bond maturities in 2024 totals $282,000,000 Slide 11 shows some details on our loan portfolio. The total loan portfolio yield continues to increase climbing 13 basis points to 6.71% from 6.58% last quarter. You will see the delineation of our portfolio between fixed versus variable on the bottom right. 2 thirds of our loan portfolio is variable rate and half of the portfolio re prices within 3 months.

Speaker 4

That structure has allowed us to increase our interest income very quickly in response to the rising rate environment over the last 2 years and build capital. As I mentioned last quarter, we have $900,000 of fixed rate loans repricing during 2024 with the weighted average maturity rate of approximately 4.7%, which will provide some incremental interest income given new loans are repricing at 8.01% currently. The allowance for credit losses on Slide 12 declined just slightly from 1.67% to 1.64% of total loans due to net charge offs incurred during the quarter of $3,100,000 which John will provide details on in his remarks. We recorded $2,300,000 of provision for credit losses on loans, which was offset by a reduction of reserves for unfunded commitments of 800,000 due to the decline in unfunded commitment balances. The result was net provision expense of $1,500,000 recognized in the income statement.

Speaker 4

Note that we have $23,200,000 of remaining fair value marks on acquired loans. Our coverage ratio, including those marks is 1.82%, which it provides exceptional coverage if credit losses were to materialize. Slide 13 shows details of our deposit portfolio. We continue to have a strong core deposit base with 39% of deposits yielding 5 basis points or less with a low uninsured deposit percentage and a low average account balance reflecting a diverse deposit franchise. Our non interest bearing deposits were 16.9 percent of total deposits at the end of the quarter, which is down very modestly from 17 point percent in the prior quarter.

Speaker 4

Our total cost of deposits increased 26 basis points to 2.58% this quarter, showing signs of slowing compared to last quarter. Although we expect the cost of deposits to continue to increase somewhat over the next quarter or 2, We expect the pace will be even slower than what we've experienced this quarter. We were pleased to be able to grow deposits during the year by 3.1% given deposits across the industry declined meaningfully in 2023. That growth was achieved while improving funding mix. We reduced brokered deposits and wholesale funding during the year and grew consumer and commercial deposits through customer acquisition and gaining a larger share of wallet.

Speaker 4

On Slide 14, net interest income on a fully tax equivalent basis of $135,900,000 declined $3,400,000 from prior quarter. Earning asset yields increased 9 basis points this quarter as shown on line 5 and was offset by the increase in funding costs on Line 6, reflecting stated net interest margin on Line 7 of 3.16 percent, a decline of 13 basis points from prior quarter. Next, Slide 15 shows the details of non interest income. Overall, non interest income decreased by $1,400,000 on a linked quarter basis. As noted on the highlights On the slide, there were some non customer related items impacting non interest income this quarter, which included a $1,500,000 BOLI gain, A $2,300,000 loss on available for sale securities and a $1,000,000 write down of CRA Investments.

Speaker 4

Customer related items declined a modest $800,000 which reflected a $1,400,000 decline on the sale of mortgage loans offset by an increase in fiduciary and wealth management fees. Moving to Slide 16, non interest expense for the quarter totaled $108,100,000 and as previously mentioned included $12,700,000 in one time charges. Core non interest expense was in line with expectations and totaled $95,400,000 an increase of $1,600,000 over last quarter, driven primarily by seasonal incentive accruals. Our adjusted core efficiency ratio shown at the top right continues to be low coming in at 55.56 percent for the quarter and 53.31 percent year to date. Slide 17 shows our capital ratios.

Speaker 4

Our strong earnings this quarter drove capital expansion in all ratios. The significant growth you see on the top chart in the tangible common equity ratio reflects solid earnings and recapture of unrealized losses in AOCI. We are very pleased with the strength of our balance sheet and strong earnings reflecting a successful year amid real disruption in the industry. That concludes my remarks, and I will now turn it over to Chief Credit Officer, John Martin to discuss asset quality.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Michelle, and good morning. My remarks start on Slide 18. I'll highlight the loan portfolio, touch on the updated Insight slide, review asset quality and the non performing asset roll forward before turning the call back over to Mark. Turning to Slide 18 on line 2, where I highlight the various portfolio segments. Commercial and industrial loans originated by our regional market banking teams grew the portfolio by $214,000,000 We came off a strong backlog in the 3rd quarter, as Mike mentioned, with good pull through.

Speaker 5

Investment real estate on Line 5 also had good movement in the quarter from both new originations and with properties moving out the construction portfolio and to Mini Perm. As the sponsor portfolio seasons, we continue to see exits have driven additional capital investment into platform companies in order to meet our underwriting and stress criteria. Turning to Slide 19, I've updated the portfolio insights slide to provide additional transparency In the commercial space, the C and I classification includes sponsor finance as well as owner occupied CRE associated with the business. Our C and I portfolio has a 20% concentration in manufacturing. Our current line utilization has remained fairly at around 41% with line commitments increasing roughly $89,000,000 for the quarter.

Speaker 5

We participate in roughly Beyond the credit exposure. In the sponsor finance portfolio, I've highlighted key credit portfolio metrics. There are 86 platform companies with 53 active sponsors in an assortment of industries, Roughly 65% have a fixed charge coverage ratio of 1.5 times based on September information. This portfolio consists of single bank deals for platform companies and private equity firms as opposed to large widely syndicated leverage loans. We review the individual relationships quarterly for changes in borrower condition, including leverage and cash flow coverage.

Speaker 5

Turning to Slide 20. We continue to provide the breakout of our non owner occupied commercial real estate portfolio with additional detail around our office exposure. Office exposure is broken out on the bottom half of the chart and represents 2% of total loans slightly down from last quarter with the highest concentration outside of general office in medical. I've added a chart to the bottom right with office portfolio maturities. Refinance risk appears to be low with $18,000,000 or 7% of total office loans maturing within the next year.

Speaker 5

The office portfolio is well diversified by tenant type and geographic mix. We continue to periodically review our larger Office exposure and view the exposure is reasonably mitigated through a combination of loan to value, guarantors, tenant mix and other considerations. On Slide 21, I've highlighted our asset quality trends and current position. NPAs in 90 days past due loans decreased $1,100,000 to 47 basis points of loans and ORE. We continue to experience consistent portfolio performance despite higher rates with relatively consistent levels of classifieds at 1 point 94% of loans.

Speaker 5

We moved past last quarter's last charge offs with $3,100,000 of net charge offs or 10 basis points of average annualized or of annualized average loans for the quarter. Then moving on to slide 22, where I've again rolled forward the migration of non performing loans, charge offs, ORE and 90 days past due. For the quarter, we added non accrual loans on line 2 of $10,300,000 a reduction from payoffs or changes in accrual status of $6,100,000 on Line 3 and a rejection from gross charge offs of 3,700,000 Dropping down to line 9, we wrote down ORE by $1,100,000 which resulted in NPAs plus 90 days past due ending at $58,600,000 for the quarter. So to summarize, asset quality remains good. Net charge offs for the quarter were 10 basis points and for the year 21 basis points and for the quarter the portfolio grew at a 6.6 percent annualized growth rate and both criticized and classified loans remain in check with stable delinquency.

Speaker 5

I appreciate your attention and I'll now turn the call back over to Mark Hardwick.

Speaker 1

Turning to Slide 23, I'm going to review a few of my favorite charts as I take a more long term perspective look at our performance. On the top right, our 10 year earnings per share CAGR totaled 10.2%. And looking at both the growth in tangible book value per share and dividends paid during 2023, total book value return equaled 23%. Or if you prefer to look at tangible book value per share excluding AOCI, our total book value Excluding AOCI return for the year equaled just over 15%. Slide 24 represents our total asset CAGR of 12.9% during the last 10 years and highlights meaningful acquisitions that have materially added to our demographic footprint that fuels our growth.

Speaker 1

Slide 25, I've made a few edits to include replacing The word digital transformation with continued investment in. During the last 3 years, we have delivered a new online account origination platform, enhancements to our commercial loan automation system and we're just days and months away from completing 4 big enhancements. This week, we completed the rollout of our personal and branch account opening process, which reduces account opening times from an average of 45 minutes to less than 10 minutes, while eliminating error rates by nearly 75%. It's also connected with our online account opening process that can be delivered seamlessly through either channel or both channels. We're also live or in beta with our new online and mobile platform for consumer customers and plan to be fully live with 160,000 customers by the end of February.

Speaker 1

The first half of twenty twenty four also includes the completion of our new wire platform, our new online platform for commercial or management customers and upgrading the private wealth platform. I should also remind all of you that we have a handful of one time expenses related to temporarily overlapping systems and customer service center augmentation to handle these upgrades. We expect a 1st quarter charge of approximately $3,000,000 and a second quarter charge of approximately $2,000,000 Through these projects, we have truly streamlined and simplified the client experience and we will continue to focus on modest relevant enhancements in the future. Thanks for your attention and your investment in First Merchants. And at this time, we're happy to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe Michelle just first on the margin and the NII outlook. I appreciate all the detail you gave on the funding side as well as the asset side repricing. And I apologize if I missed it, but did you have kind of a baseline assumption for how the NIM trends through 2024 and what NII might look like?

Speaker 4

Sure. Good morning. So for Q1, we do expect to see a bit more compression in 2024. Our December margin was 312. So that can give you a bit of a data point.

Speaker 4

And then I would also remind you that because we're so commercially oriented, margin is always seasonally low In Q1, simply due to day count. So, just another item. But assuming a flat rate environment, we are expecting margin to stabilize in the quarters thereafter. Now if there are rate cuts, our model tells us that for each 25 basis point rate cut margin declines about 4 basis points. We're taking a very proactive approach in managing our deposit costs down in anticipation of the rate cuts, which could perhaps lessen that impact.

Speaker 4

And a couple of other items will be paying down about $40,000,000 of sub debt at the end of this month They had a rate near 10%, which will offer some meaningful savings. We continue to sell bonds, which create some spread when we put that cash back to work and loans and higher cost funding. And the other thing that I'd mentioned too is typically in a declining rate environment, we tend to see an opportunity for higher mortgage loan gain sales. So, although we think that there are Some headwinds when we have a declining rate environment, we think that there's some tailwinds as well.

Speaker 6

I appreciate all that detail. Is there kind of an all in NII outlook? You obviously have an expectation for continued strong loan growth in the year. Just curious how you think NII might end up for the year?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think in Q1, we will see some compression in net interest income, but then we're expecting stability and growth thereafter, particularly in the second half due to our expected growth.

Speaker 6

Okay, terrific. And then lastly, just following up on your comment on mortgage banking. You've maybe not bottomed as low as some other banks, doing Quite well actually last year. Just curious where you think that number could end up once rates start coming down. I mean, you're Thank you.

Speaker 6

You were doing about $20,000,000 a year during some pretty good times in 2020 2021. Do you think you'll be able to get above that given the investments you've made?

Speaker 1

Daniel, it's Mark Hardwick. That's a good question. We're really pleased by the enhancements we've made with the team post level 1. So we kind of doubled the size of the business before the downturn in rates. And when I say doubled, our portfolio Our First Merchants originations were almost identical to level 1.

Speaker 1

And so by putting the 2 organizations together, We feel like we've materially strengthened the outlook. As you think it has a lot to do with rates, but I'm confident that we had potential and capacity in the core First Merchants franchise based on this change that we've had in our strategy around mortgage. So Yes, I mean, I'm confident that if we have a decline in rates that we should be able to exceed our historical performance when you look at the 2 on a combined basis.

Speaker 6

Terrific. Thanks for all the color. I'll step back.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Danny.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte with KBW. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning everyone. Hope you're all doing well today. Just wanted to start off with some questions on expenses. Michelle, looking for a little bit more guidance here as we go into 2024. Obviously, there are some one time items this quarter, But kind of what are you thinking about for a good core run rate?

Speaker 4

Yes. Good morning, Damon. So this quarter, our core expense total when you back out those one time costs was $95,400,000 So on a core basis, we expect the quarterly expense run rate to be flat to maybe up 2% on the high side in 2024 compared to this quarter. As Mark mentioned, we will incur some one time charges on top of core expense run rate in Q1 and Q2 due to the online banking conversion and our private wealth platform conversion of a few $1,000,000 each quarter, but we will disclose that impact and make sure that that's transparent to you. But like I said, I think we're very focused on good expense management for 2024 and feel that strongly that we can achieve that.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then on the fee income side, you had called out a few items. If you kind of net Those three items together, you're probably closer to like a $28,000,000 operating non interest income result this quarter.

Speaker 7

I know there's some volatility around potential for mortgage banking income that we just spoke about. But as you look at your other Drivers of fee income, how should we kind of look at the quarterly level going forward?

Speaker 4

Yes. This quarter, I think is the total is a little light for a run rate in 2024. We're expecting that probably to average more around the $30,000,000 to $31,000,000 per quarter next year.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. And then just lastly, obviously, it's some good recapture on the AOCI, which boosted tangible book value and intangible common equity. I think the TC ratio ended around 8.5%. Just kind of wondering what your thoughts are on capital management and a buyback in particular?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Damon. Yes, we were really thrilled to see the return to that TC ratio over 8%. And it was the catalyst to paying down $40,000,000 of our sub debt. We decided to tackle it first.

Speaker 1

We've got $25,000,000 which we're likely to pay down next quarter. And just feel good about Managing the bank based on a TCE and total risk based capital level primarily off of common equity. So thinking about that first, there may be a time assuming that we have stabilization in rates where We have the as we continue to add capital through earnings, we have the capacity to be active in the market. But these prices, I'm Inclined to do that, but we have not started that process.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. That's all that I had. Thanks a lot. Appreciate the color and commentary.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Damon.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy From Stephens, your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Terry.

Speaker 9

Hi, the $214,000,000 of C and I regional banking loans caught my eye and I think there was some mention for prepared remarks about pipelines being healthy kind of starting the quarter. Any specific industries, markets that contributed to the outside growth last quarter? And are your outlooks kind of specifically for the C and I business, which is a big part of the portfolio?

Speaker 2

Yes, good question, Terry. It's Mike Stewart. The muted growth that we saw

Speaker 1

in the prior quarter was simply because a lot of

Speaker 2

the C and I transactions really hadn't closed at that point. So we ended the quarter with a really strong high pipeline that didn't materialize. I think John even pointed that out. And it really was through that whole region bank model, which is traditionally the commercial industrial space. And that's the space that I think that we still have good outlooks as we turn the year, the 2024, Fully staffed in our marketplace, taking advantage of competitive disruption, strong economic factors.

Speaker 2

When you think about Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, So that's what's driving a stable pipeline of that. We saw some nice growth in the investment real estate portfolio, Solid transactions, some of it could be growth underneath construction draw, but more of it's just the origination has been good in the asset classes that we look to play in, in addition to some fully funded term loans that we were focused on. So just a nice balanced mix across the Midwest here.

Speaker 5

And Terry, I might just add in terms of industry, it's pretty much across the board. I mean, we're a Midwest C and I Bank or Commercial Bank and when we pick up C and I, it's just what's in our footprint. It's not a vertical that we're in any particular area. It comes in kind of a broad basis to what it happens to be.

Speaker 9

Thanks for that. And Michelle, do you have the level of index deposits as we all attempt to potentially model out lower rates and how that could impact your funding costs?

Speaker 4

Yes, we have $2,500,000,000 of deposits that are tied to an index that we'll be able to reprice along with rate cuts if those occur.

Speaker 9

And then just a last question is, kind of the expenses, early retirement Severance lease, are those connected to kind of broader expense management actions to manage expenses in 2024 and I'm trying to think of the real numbers and how do you think about the earn back on the call it $8,400,000

Speaker 1

Yes, our back is quick. It's less than a year. So we're Really pleased with the way the voluntary retirement played out. And as much as anything, just excited about That it creates for hungry employees that are ready for the next stage of their career.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks again for taking my questions. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you, Steve. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Yes. Hi, everyone. Good afternoon. Appreciate taking the call. I jumped on a little late, but I think I heard kind of a mid to high single digit loan growth outlook for this year.

Speaker 8

And just curious how you guys are thinking about the opportunities to grow the core deposit franchise in 2024. Obviously, it was a difficult year to grow core deposits in 2023. So just curious how you guys are thinking about those opportunities, particularly in light of some of the improvements or enhancements on the technology side of things?

Speaker 1

Yes, I would just say that we feel great about our liquidity position, which is You saw us lead with that in the press release and early in the call, we talked about that $585,000,000 change, $300,000,000 of new cash, a reduction of borrowings of $285,000,000 And so I think it allows us to be smart around our deposit pricing, maybe a little more conservative than what we were in 2023. But I still think, and Our expectations are always mid to low single digit deposit growth. So if you think about 3%, 4% Is our target kind of year after year? If you think about normal environment, it's obviously COVID And all the stimulus kind of changed those things, but it does feel like we're starting to settle in to a banking environment that feels more like it used to.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And just thinking about the size of securities portfolio going forward, I appreciate the disclosure around how much cash flow you have coming off this year. Is the expectation that just the portfolio shrinks by that amount or And you are able to just redeploy that cash flow and incremental deposit growth into new loans or do you guys see a need to maybe grow the securities book to some extent?

Speaker 4

We're not planning to grow the securities book. We are planning to use that liquidity for loan growth.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And then just one last question on credit, maybe for John. I think in the past we've talked about a Normalized charge off range between 15 to 20 basis points. Is there anything that you're seeing on the horizon that would cause you to deviate from that kind of historical trajectory into this year and next. Obviously, nice improvement in most credit metrics here in the 4th quarter, but Just any thoughts on that kind of historical range as we can enter a still somewhat uncertain environment this year?

Speaker 5

Yes. Well, no, I don't. Actually, I wait for the question of what the run rate on charge offs, What I think it would be and I think of it really between that 10 to 20 basis point range, absent any individual name that might pop up and You go through and you continue your portfolio reviews and your analysis of individual credits and That still seems like it's reasonable to me given the level of classifieds, the level of criticized

Speaker 1

to pencil in. Okay,

Speaker 8

great. And obviously, you guys are still operating with a very healthy reserve as a percentage of loans and then NPLs for that matter. Any thoughts on just kind of where the reserve maybe bottoms over the next year or 2 as a percentage of loans in terms of kind of how you guys need to provide for kind of that mid to high single digit loan growth outlook?

Speaker 4

Well, I mean, it'll be likely that we'll take some provision to cover at least our loan growth during the year. We'll have to look at the changes in the economic scenarios. Obviously, that'll play Pardon that determination. It might still tick down a little bit. We're at 164 for a coverage ratio now.

Speaker 4

We'll just have to kind of see how the year plays out with whether we get a soft landing or we get a recession. I think that's going to make a big difference.

Speaker 8

Got it. Makes sense. And then just one last housekeeping question. Does the tax rate go back up to around 15% for the Q1 of next year or 24%, excuse me.

Speaker 4

Yes. Yes, typically our effective tax rate is around 15% to 15.5%. So I think that's what you should expect in 2024.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. I appreciate you guys answering the questions and all the color.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thank you, Nate.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Martin with Janney. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning everyone and thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just one for John or 2. Just I joined Lakeside. Just John, did you talk about what the special mentioned credits did in the quarter? Just I know that you got the classifieds in the deck.

Speaker 3

Just curious what the leading indicator there looks like. It sounds like Everything is just very strong on the credit front. Just trying to look a little bit deeper at that number.

Speaker 5

Yes. We don't have a slide. Sorry, Brian.

Speaker 7

Yes.

Speaker 5

Is that my had my voice my Speaker muted, getting waved down here. So I don't have my we don't disclose our criticized assets within on the slides, But they've kind of trended with the classifieds and were from a commitment standpoint pretty much flat for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Okay. Okay. Yes, that's helpful. I just wanted direction just kind of how it's looking. It sounds pretty good.

Speaker 3

Just wanted to kind of confirm that. Yes. And then Maybe just one for Michelle on the deposit repricing. Michelle, that $2,500,000,000 is that pretty immediate on the deposit Pricing, I guess, I don't know what that was tied to index wise, but assume it's pretty immediate?

Speaker 4

It is, yes.

Speaker 3

Okay. I got you in that front. Okay. And then maybe just last 2, just on the growth outlook, it still sounds very strong. And obviously, The focus is on the organic side.

Speaker 3

I mean, do you guys view or see opportunities out there on the M and A side? I mean, there's a lot on your plate listening to the call and everything going on, but just trying to understand what the opportunities may be on the M and A side, I guess, in 2024 and beyond?

Speaker 1

Yes, we continue to have communication with a handful of banks that we think would be great fits as part of our franchise, but I'm not sure the environment has really changed to make M and A really attractive yet. A reduction of interest rates helped some return of stock price has been helpful and we're just going to continue to have conversations And when sellers are ready and looking for partners, hopefully it fits with all of the other initiatives that we have happening. Really pleased to get some of these tech projects behind us by mid year or by June 30. And when we're in the middle of that kind of activity, there's just no way to really even think about M and A. So But the conversations are continuous and we continue to build relationships.

Speaker 3

Yes. It makes sense. Organic focus is where you guys have been and it's been doing a great job. And like you said, all these initiatives, I want to drop the ball on those and get those done. So and timing is Not perfect just yet.

Speaker 3

So okay. And then maybe last one for me, maybe for John or whomever, but just as you kind of look at the loan repricing this year, the renewals in the rate increases. I guess, have you taken a look at that portfolio? I guess, sir, can you just give any commentary about how much risk you in those loans repricing is from a credit risk, the new the renewals getting absorbing the stress of the higher rates or you've done any type of color on that?

Speaker 1

I missed the kind of the

Speaker 5

first part. You talked about investment real estate specifically?

Speaker 3

No, just in general in the loan book to repricing this year And the credit just being able to absorb the impact of higher rates as they reprice and just as you if you kind of look at that maybe on a chunkier credits?

Speaker 5

So far, what I've seen across the portfolio is that customers have been able to either increase their prices previously and they've been able to absorb the changes in interest rates pretty well quite frankly. You do see it in some in cases where the higher interest rates have led to slightly higher debt service or higher debt service. But there's been a series of maneuvers either through increase of prices or reduction in expenses or something else in the income statement they've been able to compensate for. So, yes, I mean, you see it, you see it, but you've got good business owners there figuring it out.

Speaker 1

Yes. And Michelle mentioned we have $900,000,000 at a rate of 4.7% that are fixed rates that will mature in 'twenty four. And when we look through those, we're optimistic about how that helps earnings versus feeling like somehow you move into a credit issue.

Speaker 3

Yes, I got you. Okay. Well, thanks for taking the questions and nice finish to the year guys.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Mark Hardwick for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Norma. Yes, thanks everyone for your participation. We're again really pleased with the year that we had, Especially in light of some of the challenges that occurred throughout the industry, what people are referring to it as March Madness. And Just it helped to validate the strengths and the safety and soundness of our institution. And I think we end the year with a balance sheet that really is in an Incredibly strong position, that sets us up for success in the future.

Speaker 1

So again, we appreciate your investment. We thank you for your time and have a good

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Earnings Conference Call
First Merchants Q4 2023
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