SPS Commerce Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 24, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Irmina Blaschik, Investor Relations for SPS Commerce. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Cole. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on SPS Commerce Q3 2024 Conference Call. We will make certain statements today, including with respect to our expected financial results, go to market strategy and efforts designed to increase our traction and penetration with retailers and other customers. These statements are forward looking and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please note that these forward looking statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Speaker 1

Please refer to our SEC filings, specifically our Form 10 ks, as well as our financial results press release for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. These documents are available at our website, spscommerce.com, and at the SEC's website, sec.gov. In addition, we are providing a historical data sheet for easy reference on the Investor Relations section of our website, spscommerce.com. During our call today, we will discuss adjusted EBITDA financial measures and non GAAP income per share. In our press release and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our website, you will find additional disclosures regarding these non GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

Speaker 1

And with that, I will turn the call over to Chad.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Irmina, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We delivered a strong Q3. Revenue grew 21 percent to $163,700,000 recurring revenue also grew 21%. It's been a year since I joined SPS Commerce.

Speaker 2

I've now come to fully appreciate the power of SPS' go to market strategy, network effect and unique ability to improve collaboration and data accuracy to optimize supply chain operations. As the retail industry continues to increase in complexity, naturally SPS's role in automating trading partner relationships continues to evolve. We are in the process of evaluating the expanded opportunity ahead of us and we look forward to sharing our updated view of our addressable markets. The acquisitions we have completed in the past year exemplify SPS's growing TAM and our commitment to delivering a comprehensive suite of solutions to help retailers and suppliers improve collaboration. Last month marked the 1 year anniversary of closing the Tye Kinetics acquisition.

Speaker 2

We are pleased with our progress of the post merger integration and remain enthusiastic about the long term potential. As a reminder, we acquired TIE Kinetics to add e invoicing capability to our product portfolio, establish a go to market beachhead in Europe for a fulfillment product and strengthen our position in the U. S. Market by adding the U. S.

Speaker 2

Portion of the Ti Kinetics business to our U. S. Operations. E invoicing capability is a frequent requirement for customers implementing fulfillment outside of the U. S.

Speaker 2

In countries where there is an e invoicing mandate. With this capability integrated into our fulfillment product, we can now address the needs of these customers. We appreciate the differences between North America and European retail markets, but with access to the experience and knowledge of the Ti Kinetics team, we are optimistic about the success and long term potential of our opportunity in Europe. This year, we continue to be acquisitive and in Q3, we acquired Supply Pike and expanded our portfolio with automated invoice deduction management and prevention. We're excited to welcome our new employees and customers to SPS Commerce.

Speaker 2

Much like the acquisition of Traverse Systems in May this year, we strive to offer our customers and the broader market the resources needed to reduce supply chain missteps and strengthen suppliers' relationships with retailers. We are pleased to see our customers benefiting from these offerings. For example, GNC is the world's largest global specialty health, wellness and performance retailer and one of SPS's longtime customers. They've worked with Traverse Systems over the years and leverage the platform to gain complete visibility into every part of the purchase order lifecycle. They were able to isolate the root causes of problematic shipments and worked with vendors to raise the advanced shipping notice compliance rate from 76% to 92%.

Speaker 2

This resulted in better visibility into inbound shipments, allowing GNC to improve time to value of its inventory. Bissell, a leading manufacturer of home cleaning solutions was challenged with significant invoice deductions in their order fulfillment process because the recovery process was too cumbersome and time consuming. Using Supply Pike's automated invoice deduction management and prevention solution to consolidate data from retailer portals into a single user friendly platform gave Bizzle the visibility they needed to save 1,000,000 in disputed deductions across multiple retailers. Having access to data on one platform also helped BISSELL gain actionable insights into deduction trends across retailers, identify areas for improvement and optimize deduction recovery strategies. Automation and optimization remains a priority across retail and distribution businesses.

Speaker 2

For example, Bunzl Retail Services offers a complete line of retail products and supplies for more than 83,000 SKUs and operates 7 distribution centers across U. S. And Canada and 6 more internationally. Bunzl recognized that in order to run the business more efficiently to support their growth, they had to optimize data by minimizing manual intervention and improve order visibility. To support their goal to digitize their supply chain, they recently partnered with SPS Commerce to automate ordering, receiving and invoicing processes with over a 1,000 vendors.

Speaker 2

The evolving dynamics of the retail industry continue to drive digital transformation. SPS has been trusted partner to thousands of retailers, suppliers, logistics providers and distributors over the years and we remain committed to our vision to be the world's retail network. Our customers continue to prioritize supply chain resilience and recognize the value we bring to the table as they strive for efficient collaboration with their trading partners. With that, I'll turn it over to Kim to discuss our financial results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chad. We had a great Q3 of 2024. Revenue was $163,700,000 a 21% increase over Q3 of last year. Recurring revenue also grew 21% year over year. The total number of recurring revenue customers increased 2% year over year to approximately 45,200 and wallet share increased 18% to approximately 13,700.

Speaker 4

As a reminder, in August, we closed the acquisition of Supply Pike, at which time we said we expect the acquisition to add approximately 200 customers

Speaker 3

to our network and increase wallet share by approximately 350. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew 19 percent to $48,400,000 compared to $40,500,000 in Q3 of last year. We ended the quarter with total cash and investments of $206,000,000 Now turning to guidance. For the Q4 of 2024, we expect revenue to be in the range of $168,500,000 to $169,500,000 which represents approximately 16% to 17% year over year growth. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $48,000,000 to $48,700,000 We expect fully diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.46 to $0.47 with fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 38,100,000 shares.

Speaker 3

We expect non GAAP diluted income per share to be in the range of $0.83 to $0.84 with stock based compensation expense of approximately $12,800,000 depreciation expense of approximately $5,100,000 amortization expense of approximately $7,200,000 For the full year 2024, we expect revenue to be in the range of $635,400,000 to $636,400,000 representing approximately 18% to 19% growth over 2023. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $185,000,000 to $185,700,000 representing growth of approximately 17% to 18% over 2023. We expect fully diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.03 to $2.04 with fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 37,900,000 shares. We expect non GAAP diluted income per share to be in the range of $3.41 to $3.42 with stock based compensation expense of approximately $55,100,000 depreciation expense of approximately $19,100,000 and amortization expense for the year of approximately $22,800,000 For the remainder of the year, on a quarterly basis, investors should model approximately a 30 percent effective tax rate calculated on GAAP pre tax net earnings. In terms of 2025 guidance, we will provide revenue, adjusted EBITDA and other measures on our Q4 earnings conference call.

Speaker 3

Long term, we maintain our annual revenue growth expectation of 15% or greater as we expand our network through community enablement campaigns and acquisitions and we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA dollar growth of 15% to 25% as we invest in the business to support current and future growth. Our target model for adjusted EBITDA margin remains 35%. In summary, SPS Commerce delivered strong 3rd quarter performance and the 95th consecutive quarter of revenue growth. We remain committed to a balanced growth approach as we continue to support our customers with a comprehensive product portfolio that positions them to successfully navigate evolving omni channel dynamics and overcome increasing supply chain complexity. And with that, I'd like to open the call to questions.

Operator

Thank you. And we will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 5

And

Operator

And our first question today will come from Scott Berg with Needham. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Chad and Kimberly, nice quarter here. Chad, I wanted to ask about the kind of demand environment that you're seeing out there and how the quarter progressed versus your expectations. I know this has been a big year of selling back in enabling existing customers with regards to some retailer needs out there. But how are you thinking about the net new business opportunity out there and how that will evolve maybe over the next couple of quarters as you start moving on from those kind of internally focused enablement items that you've been working on? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Scott. Yes, as you mentioned and as we discussed quite a bit in the last earnings call, although all year long we've seen a very healthy pipeline in terms of our community enablement programs, both in terms of the number of programs as well as the number of suppliers are in those programs. One dynamic that we did see in the programs in the first half of the year and we expected to see a little bit in the second half as well is that a higher proportion of those programs were areas where we expected to find existing customers, usually driven by a very healthy and strategic relationship with the retailer that just over time has led to a high penetration within those particular customers. As we look out now to the

Speaker 5

Q4,

Speaker 2

and we have some pipeline visibility even into a little bit of 2025, that trend of strong pipeline of community programs continues, both in terms of number of programs and suppliers in those programs. Maybe what we see a little less of is the higher concentration of existing customers within those programs. And that comment is probably a little bit more for the Q4. It gets a little hard for us as we look further out, not to see the health of the pipeline, but to know the specific contents in terms of existing customers, non existing customers as we get a couple of quarters out. So overall, I'd say the demand environment looks positive and we are of course a little subject to the mix of existing customers within those programs.

Speaker 2

But overall, I would say the health of the programs continues. And I would just add that growth has shown up this year more in the wallet share side. And I would expect that as the product portfolio grows and we have more and more to upsell and cross sell the customers that we will see a lot of the growth coming in on wallet share, which is just natural as the product portfolio expands and we have more to cross sell and upsell.

Speaker 4

Got it. Very helpful. And then, Kim, you mentioned, not giving 25 guidance until the Q4 call. Understand a lot of moving parts around some of the recent acquisitions and whatnot. But as you're starting to think about calendar 2025, should we think about any of your investments, whether it's in product or sales and marketing, in that cadence differing than maybe what we've seen over the last couple of years?

Speaker 4

Or would the philosophy there probably be relatively the same?

Speaker 3

Sure. So we're going to continue to invest in both the short term, medium term and long term as we see appropriate for our existing customers and the opportunity ahead of us. That being said, we have reiterated our view of EBITDA growth anywhere between sort of that 15% to 25%. What I would say is, the primary reason why we made that comment about 20%, 25% guidance providing it in our next earnings call Q4 is we do think that it actually is more comprehensive and better to investors when we can provide our information on revenue as well as EBITDA and the other metrics. Over the last few years, we've given purely an EBITDA number.

Speaker 3

And so our practice going forward is to be more comprehensive and provide the full spectrum of the guidance to investors, which naturally then leads to the Q4 earnings call.

Speaker 6

Got it. Helpful. Congrats on

Speaker 4

the good quarter. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

And our next question will come from George Caruszawa with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask about the recent acquisition Supply Pike and Traverse. I mean, thinking in particular about Traverse, it seems like maybe there's some opportunity to synergize with some of these other add ons. I think about scorecarding visibility, helping as kind of a carrot for analytics adoption or maybe helping identify underperforming suppliers you can then go help with something like a supply pipe for invoice deduction management. And maybe if you just talk about kind of the strategy as this you start to become like a true multiproduct platform, how you see some of these products playing with each other?

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely, George. So we're really excited about Traverse. 1, just in terms of the way we're executing on the integration of it into our business, but also the reception that we've had as we've had the opportunity to be with more Traverse customers and help them understand what we do to digitize their suppliers using our community enablement program and then also the inverse of that where, we've introduced the Traverse platform to some of our long term and strategic SPS retail customers. And I think here really what we're doing is really trying to help retailers and suppliers be more efficient overall in their supply chain. And a lot of times, the reasons for those inefficiencies are lack of visibility or lack of performance measurements.

Speaker 2

And that's really, what Traverse gets to in that you can pull a lot of supply chain data in and produce this scorecard for your suppliers and help improve that. And then that does lead obviously to more ways than we can work with suppliers than to help them with their performance. The key to a lot of this is having the digital connection between the retailer and the supplier and that's obviously our core offering that has been for years. But then when that supply chain performance isn't there, that can be come across in the form of a penalty or an invoice deduction, levied by the retailer. And we can then help with the technology we got from supply pipe help on the supplier side, those suppliers deal with those, either dispute them because they're incorrect or probably more important to this whole ecosystem, help those suppliers identify the root cause of those supply chain problems that led to the deduction in the 1st place and get those issues resolved so we can take overall friction out of this supply chain between the retailer and the supplier.

Speaker 6

It's super interesting. And then I did want to kind of as a follow-up to that with more of a multi product story of growing portfolio, any updated thoughts on pricing and packaging approach?

Speaker 2

Yes. We are still working through the details of that as we work through the post merger integration of these projects. But obviously, it's our objective to have a higher penetration of these products in our customers and to the extent that those customers can get that in a single package that's priced right, it makes it easy for them to adopt, we would of course implement those strategies.

Speaker 6

Got it. And then if I could sneak in one follow-up for Kim. You gave some target numbers for supply pipe and Traverse in terms of revenue and EBITDA. How did those come in, in the quarter and any change to the outlook for 2025?

Speaker 3

Sure. So when we announced both of those acquisitions at that point in time, we gave a view of what our expectations were for top line as well as bottom line for this year as well as next year. In the I'd say in the quarter, they performed a little bit better than expectations, but we stand by what we have as our expectations at the time we announce those acquisitions.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

And our next question will come from Dylan Becker with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, Chad. Hey, Tim. Nice job here. I guess maybe sticking with the idea of the enablement campaigns, when you guys and I understand the platform continues to evolve, expand and we'll have more to sell. But as you guys go in with a retailer with those initiatives, are the connections you're selling to suppliers, is that landing wall to wall?

Speaker 7

Or is there kind of incremental opportunities to go back with those retailers over time and sell more touch points? I guess the question is kind of how should we think about the durability of the expansion motion and the momentum we've seen even if we move more to that kind of balanced mix of net new and expansion if that makes sense?

Speaker 2

Yes. That's a good point, Dylan. It doesn't it is not a very binary activity. So when we work with the retailer to digitize their suppliers, that's really at a point in time and we're extremely effective at getting almost all their order volume digitally connected at that point in time. But as you know, in retail, the merchandise assortment is always changing, suppliers are always changing.

Speaker 2

And what typically happens with retailers is maybe the work we did got it to 98%, but then that assortment changes and the suppliers change and their internal vendor management capability isn't able to stay on top of that. And we will go back then and work with other retailers to sort of do a catch up and re catch up to make sure that that same high percentage of the order volume is digitally connected. So we have a couple of modes of doing that. We can do those catch up programs in some of the more strategic relationships we have. We're actually built into the vendor management and vendor onboarding process of the retailer and we kind of catch those new suppliers as they come in.

Speaker 2

But it is a pretty fluid environment as suppliers come and go. And think in the end that creates sort of a continuous flow of leads into our organization through those community programs that then we can go out and capture and establish those digital connections as those suppliers join our network.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. That makes sense. That's really helpful. Maybe as we think about to the network here, obviously, we've had a handful of kind of somewhat larger transactions, if you will. But thinking about kind of that network dynamic and how that plays into your buy and build effort, you obviously get a lot of access to data.

Speaker 7

You see a lot of incremental processes that I'm sure you'd like to expand the network off of. How do you think about kind of that road map from a buy versus build perspective in organic versus organic, etcetera? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So as we really kind of all as we look at product expansion opportunity starts with the customer and we're really working with that customer and understanding their business process. And then exactly like you mentioned, understanding where we could solve the problem with maybe data we have in the network, maybe we need to build a solution that leverages data in the network. Or even in the case of these recent product acquisitions, where we've decided that time to market was fastest and getting an installed customer base was beneficial. And so those made sense to be acquisitions.

Speaker 2

There's still quite a bit of benefit from the network data itself. So both with Traverse and Supply Pike as we integrate those products in, we're finding quite a bit of benefit by being able to feed those application platforms with data in the network and get that more integrated into the network. So the power of the data that we have in the network, we expect to be very applicable and additive to future acquisitions or new products that we launch as well.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks, Chad. Appreciate it.

Operator

And our next question will come from Lachlan Brown with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, Chad, Kim, Hamina. Thanks for taking my questions. Just interested in what you're seeing in terms of the channel sales funnel. I mean, obviously, the community enablement campaigns have been largely focused on the existing customer base. But what are the channel sales been seeing in terms of the sales environment for new logos?

Speaker 2

Yes, great question. And our channel sales program is a great contributor of leads for us. And these also do tend to be more kind of full replacement cycle. So typically when somebody is implementing a new ERP system, especially when they're going with the cloud based ERP system, it's a good time for them to change out the whole infrastructure they have for all their digital connections. And we've seen really healthy activity in this area.

Speaker 2

And with ERP change outs in volume. With more of that though, I would say coming more in more of the smaller side of this most of this happens for us in the SMB area. I'd say it's we've been really healthy in the small side, maybe at the kind of more mid market or the higher end of SMB, maybe a little bit slower just to see some of these ERP change outs. But when you put those two together, sort of total volume of leads coming from channels has been quite healthy for us this year.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks. That makes sense. I mean, it's interesting in terms of the smaller side of things. Given the channel sound the channel is focused on also medium to large enterprises, we've heard that there's been some level of difficulty getting availability with system integrators at the moment, given they're quite tied up with the SAP migration.

Speaker 5

Have you seen this play out at all?

Speaker 2

Yes. We have not seen that connection directly to SAP. A lot of the value added resellers that we're working with tend to focus on the SMB area. I would just say, maybe some of the uncertainty in the environment overall with interest rates, consumer spending, the election in the U. S.

Speaker 2

May have kind of slowed down a little bit of this ERP expenditure kind of at the higher end of the mid market. Now I know there's a lot of information out there that would lead people to believe that the there's going to be a big replacement cycle in say it's sort of the higher end of the enterprise. We would expect to get some benefit from that, but probably a little bit measured for us since we're more in the SMB side of the ERP market, which is a big lead channel driver for us.

Speaker 5

That's very clear. Thanks for your time.

Operator

And our next question will come from Parker Lane with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, Chad. Hey, Tim. Thanks for taking the questions here and congrats on the quarter. Chad, you mentioned it, but it's been about a year since the TY Kinetics deal. It'd be great to get your assessment of how the go to market landscape for you all has changed on the European market in particular.

Speaker 8

And other than having more of a physical presence there, what are some of the initiatives you put in place to promote better efficiencies there and drive better performance?

Speaker 2

Yes. So a couple of points, just to remind everybody about the Tie Kinetics acquisition, kind of three main things there. One, the e invoicing capability that Tie Kinetics had that we didn't have, we felt was going to be a key product capability that we needed for our international expansion. Then we wanted that we were selling our analytics product with an active go to market in Europe, but we didn't really have an active go to market for fulfillment in Europe. So we thought it could be a foundation for that.

Speaker 2

And then there was some U. S. Business as well, that we now integrated into our U. S. Operations.

Speaker 2

A couple of things that have as we work through the product strategy and the go to market strategy, One, e invoicing, we now bundled that in with our fulfillment product. So we no longer have that barrier. We do think that the right go to market is e invoicing coupled with fulfillment. And the e invoicing piece is definitely a requirement that we see in many of the countries in Europe to adopt fulfillment. The second piece would be a lot of the network itself and the network technology can be used in Europe and we've sort of proved that out with the product strategy.

Speaker 2

And then we have early signals that a lot of the go to market techniques that we've used quite well in North America, specifically the channel relationships and the community go to market should be applicable in Europe. Now all that said, I think we're early innings, if you will, on building out that go to market for Europe. And I think there are a few unique challenges in Europe around the regional nature of the way the business is done there. I think the power balance is a little bit different between the retailers and suppliers. You tend to have a lot of region specific or even country specific retailers, where in the U.

Speaker 2

S. You have country specific retailers, but it's a lot bigger market for them, so they control a lot more power over their suppliers. So those types of dynamics we'll need to work through. But we're pretty optimistic that some of these things from a product strategy standpoint as well as a go to market approach that have worked quite well for us in North America are transferable to Europe.

Speaker 8

Got it. Very helpful. And then you mentioned doing an evaluation to get an updated view on the addressable market. The messaging has been very stable on the addressable market in this business' history. Is that assessment purely a reflection of all the additional product you've bought to market recently?

Speaker 8

Or is there anything else we should read into there?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, I'd say the work where we've previously shared with you on addressable market is a bit dated at this point and the product portfolio as you mentioned has expanded. So, we are doing some work internally to just refresh that a bit to account for kind of the current look at the market as well as incorporate some of the product line expansions. And we're optimistic that we'll be able to share some of that in more detail here in 2025.

Speaker 8

Great. Congrats again on the quarter. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question will come from Joe Verwink with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Hi, everyone. Yes, I know you're still talking about a balanced growth algorithm, but just given the source of the growth year to date and the focus of recent acquisitions, do you think there could come a time in the near future where you find yourself maybe just updating your sense of how you grow going forward? And I certainly don't ask the question, meaning to say that logo count stops growing, but just given the size and magnitude of trading relationships you already helped manage, it does seem to be the case that just monetizing those relationships is a pretty credible path to growing for a long time? And does that just become more of your focus as opposed to kind of the balanced algo that you've been running up until this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. Joe, I think that's a good observation. I mean, we are confident that due to the way the market works with the suppliers, how much we're penetrated in that today that certainly new customers is going to be a continued element in our growth algorithm. Now that said, now that we have over 45,000 customers and a broader product portfolio and some things that most likely we will do over time in terms of expanding that product portfolio both organically and through M and A. I think it is logical to conclude that expanding the wallet share on those customers with a broader product portfolio will also be a lever.

Speaker 2

And I think it's a little difficult to predict. Historically, in the business, those have grown fairly linearly. I think as the product portfolio gets bigger and there's a bigger base of customers to cross sell, it might be logical to conclude that that wallet share might start growing at a little bit faster rate than the specific customer count.

Speaker 3

And that would be, I would say, on the revenue side that Chad's referring to. I think your question was on revenue, but I just want to clarify. When we also talk about balance, we talk about balance meaning we have the ability to grow the top line nicely. We also have the ability to drive the bottom line nicely as well as margin expansion over time. So that balanced approach between sort of top line and bottom line, we believe based on our business model, we have the opportunity to continue to deliver on that.

Speaker 3

That's on the overall financial picture. Specific on the revenue side, Chad certainly did answer that, but there's different sort of metrics that ultimately drive to that top line growth and those components in there as our product portfolio expands certainly gives reason of why that wallet share component may continue to be strong going forward. But I just wanted to clarify in the balance, there's also our view of sort of top line and bottom line.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks, Tim. That makes sense. Just on the customer trends and obviously it's been well covered what's been happening with the enablement campaigns. I guess I wanted to ask when you think about adding, I think it's 150 customers organically year to date.

Speaker 5

Do you self audit that result and come away with a view that ultimately it might be reflecting maybe a tougher retail macro or as you think about your customers, they've shifted their IT priorities. So it's maybe systems that could eventually lead to setting up the connection, but that follows maybe the area of focus that's happening for customers this year. Just trying to get a sense if that number stands out because certainly enablement campaigns, while they're a big theater of your customer growth, they're not the only theater of your customer

Speaker 2

growth? Yes. No, Joe, we don't hold that view that it's sort of driven by the macro environment or kind of a change in the need for our types of solutions. As we've really looked into this, it really does come down to the mix of types of community programs that we've run this year. The overall number of programs and the suppliers in those programs has been quite strong.

Speaker 2

As we mentioned earlier in the call, the pipeline going forward for that looks quite strong. It is really just the mix where we've run some campaigns this year with retailers. We have been quite successful historically and therefore finding a higher percentage of existing SPS customers within those campaigns.

Speaker 5

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question will come from Jeff Van Rhee with Craig Hallum. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Hey, guys. Thanks. Nice quarter. Just to follow on to the last question, kind of a variation of that because we think about the TAM.

Speaker 9

You've got 45,200 recurring customers, and I know you've talked about 200,000 in the TAM. And with a lot of the enablement campaigns being with people that are already with you, is there something do you consider with respect to the go to market that you pursue enablement campaigns potentially with retailers of a type that don't have supplier bases, suppliers that are already in your customer count? I mean, how would you get at the remaining 150,000 of 200,000 potential recurring customers?

Speaker 2

Yes, yes, Jeff, good question. And I've mentioned on previous calls, I believe that historically and even currently, our focus with that retail sales force is to get as many of these enablement programs with as many suppliers as we can sort of through the door. And that has worked quite well. And I would point out, even these campaigns that we have run and encountered a higher going to some other areas, maybe kind of hunting some other ground where there might be a lower penetration of existing SPS customers may be a tactic that we'll have to use in terms of pointing that retail sales force in some different directions. Historically, we have not had to be too discriminating in where we pointed that team and it's led to lots of success.

Speaker 2

But as things play out in the future, we may need to focus them and we certainly have an eye on that. And if that was what was required, we'd find ways to do that.

Speaker 9

Fair enough. Just one last for me. As you look at the Supply Pike customer base, obviously, we've got some nice overlap and obvious synergies there. In the Supply Pike base that is not using SPSC, any observations on who they were using and any surprises in that respect? I'm talking about for fulfillment.

Speaker 2

Yes. So the supply pipe customer base does tend to skew a little bit larger. So there is really good overlap and a very similar ideal customer profile. But I'd say the supply pipe customer tends to be kind of at the larger end of where the historic fulfillment customer is. And what we still do find in that larger end of consumer products companies is they invested in on premise software and their own staff to manage these types of digital connections way back before there were SaaS platforms to

Speaker 8

do this for them. And so that

Speaker 2

changeover cycle is typically comes as those, companies move to to kind of full on into the cloud and really want a cloud based approach, or as they come to some conclusion, that it really does make sense to go forward with pipe. It just the adoption may take some time.

Speaker 9

Sounds good. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

And our next question will come from Mark Chappell with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Thank you for taking my question. Chad, analytics growth appears to have settled in the mid single digit range over the past few quarters. Should we think of this as the new normal for analytics growth?

Operator

Or do you expect a solution to get back up to more of a low kind of double digit growth rate?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, we have had a couple quarters now of analytics growth coming in sort of right about 6%. We would expect for the year analytics growth to probably come in maybe not quite double digits, but certainly the high single digits. And say over the midterm, we would expect to get double digit growth out of the analytics product. I would just point out that the analytics product, a couple of things, it's not quite as addressable in our customer base as fulfillment.

Speaker 2

We do tend to do well in certain sort of sub segments of retail or product categories. We're much stronger in analytics, whereas fulfillment is very addressable across all of retail. And the other point I would make on analytics is unlike fulfillment where it's very sticky, very mission critical, the analytics can tend to be a little bit more discretionary. And so what we can see is, if a particular set of suppliers is feeling, maybe it's a little bit more cost pressure, a little easier for them to turn on or off the analytics piece versus the fulfillment piece. But overall, I know this quarter was a little bit lower growth.

Speaker 2

We do think that analytics can be a double digit grower for us.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Nehal Chokshi with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Yes, thank you.

Speaker 9

I know we've talked about this before, but I think it's worthwhile to refresh. Of the 200,000 target customers that make up their $5,000,000,000 opportunity, what percent

Speaker 2

do you guys believe that is North America base?

Speaker 3

So what I would say is when we initially put that information together and granted it's quite dated, which is why we're in the process of updating and we'll be in a position to provide that update at some point in 2025. But going back to when we initially put that together, that expectation was about, call it half U. S. And then half outside of the U. S.

Speaker 3

I would say since we put that together, we obviously have even stronger results in the United States than we probably envisioned we would have had at that point in time. So again, at that point in time, U. S. Was half, everything outside of U. S.

Speaker 3

Was the other half. But I would say we've seen more opportunity in the U. S. Probably than we thought when we initially put that together. Again, at some point in 2025, we expect to be able to provide a more comprehensive update to our view of TAM.

Speaker 2

Great. And then, Chad, you mentioned that go to

Speaker 9

market techniques in North America

Speaker 2

should be applicable in Europe. What are the risks that make you say should instead of will? Yes. I mean, we haven't done it yet. I mean, so I think we do need to prove that.

Speaker 2

And I think, there are certain things that make that a little easier in the U. S. One is retailers tend to have quite a bit of power over their suppliers. And so when we get the mandate for digital connections coming from the retailer in the U. S.

Speaker 2

That definitely catches the attention of their supplier and then they look to join our network. I think that balance of that power is a little bit different in Europe because the retailers tend to be a little smaller, a little bit more regional or country specific. The other dynamic is when we execute, say a community enablement program, we're doing all that, primarily with our sales team located here in Minneapolis and we can reach the whole world's largest economy all in one language, all from one location. There certainly would be regional differences that can add a little bit of complexity to running a program like that in Europe. So those would be the factors that I think we're optimistic that we can execute these programs there, but it may be a little bit more nuanced than how we've done it in the North American market.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

And this will conclude our question and answer session also concluding today's call. We'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation. And at this time, you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
SPS Commerce Q3 2024
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