Honeywell International Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 1, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meacham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jamila. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's 4th quarter 2023 earnings and 2024 outlook conference On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapoor and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward looking statements that based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings.

Speaker 1

This morning, we review our financial results for the Q4 and full year 'twenty three, discuss our outlook for the year and share our guidance for the Q1 and full year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Hidmilk Kapoor.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to acknowledge some important leadership changes announced this morning. First, Honeywell's Board of Director has elected me to take on additional role of Chairman when our current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk retires from the Board in June. Additionally, Bill Ayer has been elected to succeed Scott Davis as Independent Lead Director of the Board effective this May. First, I want to thank Darius for his innumerable contribution to Honeywell as well as his mentorship over the past 2 years in particular.

Speaker 2

I would also like to thank Scott for his insights over the past 4 years as Independent Director and leadership throughout the CEO succession process. Congratulations to Bill for his appointment as our new Lead Director. I look forward to partnering with him in achieving Honeywell's strategic growth initiatives. Lastly, I would like to thank Darius and the Board for their support in naming me Chairman. I'm humbled and honored to lead this great company and wake up every day energized to take on worst toughest challenges along with our 100,000 future shapers.

Speaker 2

Now let's turn to the main topic of today and discussion on Slide 3. We had a solid finish to another challenging year, Delivering on our 2023 commitments, Honeywell's world class accelerator operating system and differentiated portfolio of technology enabled us to achieve our initial full year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow and surpassed the high end of original guidance for segment margin expansion. Full year's organic growth of 4% year on year was a strong demonstration of resiliency by our long cycle aerospace and energy oriented businesses, while we await acceleration in some of our short cycle businesses as markets continue to normalize. Before we get into a more detailed discussion on 2023 results and 2024 outlook expectations, Let me take a minute to revisit my priorities for Honeywell. First, our aim is to deliver the upper end of our long term organic sales growth target range of 4% to 7%.

Speaker 2

In order to achieve that, we are enhancing our innovation playbook, accelerating our offering in sustainability and software, monetizing our installed base and leveraging our leadership position in high growth regions. 2nd, over the last 6 years, the effort of the great integration have transformed Honeywell into an integrated operating company that deploys world class capability at scale and multiple growth enablers that benefit the entire enterprise. We are evolving Honeywell Accelerator version 3.0 operating system to drive further value through standardization by business model based on our contemporary digital backbone. In addition to making this organization simple and more efficient to operate, Accelerator is a powerful source of profitable growth, all of our businesses and potential addition to our portfolio. 3rd, we continue to evaluate and undertake actions to optimize our portfolio.

Speaker 2

We'll do so by executing on strategic bolt on acquisitions while divesting non core lines of business to consistently operate the quality of the portfolio and accelerate value creation. This is a powerful combination, which delivers profitable growth and strong cash generation, creating a compelling long term value proposition for our share owners. Now let's turn to Slide 4 to discuss our progress on portfolio shaping goals. In the Q4, we announced the acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solution Business for nearly $5,000,000,000 enabling Honeywell to become a leader in security solution for the digital age. This transaction, which is clearly in line with our strategic bolt on M and A framework, further enhances are equipment agnostic, high margin product business mix within building automation.

Speaker 2

Honeywell's overall security portfolio will be more than $1,000,000,000 in sales, 1 the deed closes this year, growing at a creative rate to support Honeywell long term growth framework. In addition, Earlier in January, Quantinuum announced its first equity raise since the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solution and Cambridge Quantum Computing in late 2021, securing $300,000,000 at a pre money valuation of $5,000,000,000 demonstrating Quantinium's leading position on fault tolerant quantum computing. The round was anchored by Quantium's strategic partner, JPMorgan Chase, with additional participation from Mitsui and Company, Amgen and Honeywell. This investment brings the total capital raised by Continuum since inception to approximately $625,000,000 Quantum Computing is a key enabler for AI to reach its scale potential and Continuum is a pioneering key breakthrough and expanding use cases across number of industries. Honeywell remains the majority owner with over 50% equity ownership and we are committed to demonstrating a path to monetization of our stake within the next 18 months.

Speaker 2

With the recent portfolio announcement, We are on a track to accelerate capital deployment and exceed our commitment to deploy at least $25,000,000,000 of capital in 2023 through 2025 with a bias towards high value accretive M and A. Our balance sheet spend continues to give us meaningful capacity For both opportunistic share repurchases and M and A and the ongoing activity ongoing relatively favorable deal environment in 2024 will support the execution of our M and A strategy on a consistent basis. Before I hand over to Greg, let me turn to Slide 5 to review some of our recent Siding wins. Let me briefly highlight some of our recent commercial proof points. These wins demonstrate innovation across our portfolio and support Honeywell's recently announced plans to align its portfolio to 3 compelling megatrends: Automation, future of aviation and energy transition, all underpinned by robust digitalization capability and solution.

Speaker 2

In aero, we secured over $1,000,000,000 in new avionics and mechanical wins directly with airlines carriers in 2023 representing over 2,500 aircrafts. With a strong start to 2024, United chose Honeywell to provide a wide range of advanced avionics for close to 350 aircraft that will enter into service over the next decade. This win is another encouraging demand and demonstrate the strength of our offering in the marketplace. In the energy space, our battery energy storage solution will be deployed to 6 solar parks in U. S.

Speaker 2

Virgin Islands. When completed, our automation solution will boost the island's decarbonization effort by fulfilling 30% of the energy need through renewable sources, lowering both emission and consumer energy cost. We remain excited about our sustainable solutions portfolio and Honeywell's position at the forefront of world's ongoing energy transition. Finally, we'll be incorporating our hydrogen purification and carbon capture technologies into a multi $1,000,000,000 low carbon ammonia projects. Through this, Up to 97% of the plant's carbon dioxide emission can be sequestered and the project could remove up to 7,000,000 tons of CO2 pollution over per year.

Speaker 2

This project is yet another example of Honeywell's ability to help solve our customers' tougher challenges and sign of what's to come for our energy and sustainability solutions business. Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 6 to discuss our Q4 and full year 2023 results in more detail and also provide guidance for 2024.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 6. As a reminder, We're reporting 4th quarter and full year 2023 results under our legacy segment breakdown and providing our 2024 outlook using the new segment structure which went into effect in January. With that, let's turn to the results. We had a strong finish to another challenging year delivering on our 2023 commitments.

Speaker 3

Despite a dynamic macro backdrop, Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enabled us to deliver on our year organic sales, segment margin, earnings and free cash flow commitments. Full year organic sales were up 4% year over year, achieving the low end of our long term financial growth algorithm and beating the midpoint of our initial guidance despite a 5% drag from lower Safety and Productivity Solutions sales. Segment profit grew 8% year over year with segment margin expansion of 100 basis points to 22.7%, above our long term annual expansion target of 40 to 60 basis points and 10 basis points above the high end of our initial guidance. Adjusted earnings per share grew 5% or 11% when excluding the impact of lower non cash pension income year over year. We generated free cash flow of $4,300,000,000 at the high end of our guidance range or $5,300,000,000 excluding the after tax impact of one time settlements.

Speaker 3

We deployed $8,300,000,000 of capital, including $3,700,000,000 to share repurchases, $1,000,000,000 to CapEx, dollars 700,000,000 to M and A and $2,900,000,000 to dividend payouts, which we increased for the 14th time in the past 13 years. 4th quarter organic sales were up 2%, Led by the 11th consecutive quarter of double digit growth in our Commercial Aerospace business. Segment margin expanded by 60 basis points to 23.5%, driven by expansion in Performance Materials and Technologies and Aerospace. Earnings per share for the Q4 was $1.91 up 26% year over year and adjusted earnings per share was $2.60 up 3% year over year. An adjustment to our estimated future Bendix liability at the end of the year and our annual pension mark to market adjustment drove the difference between earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share.

Speaker 3

Excluding a $0.13 non cash pension income headwind, Adjusted earnings per share was up 8%. Bridges for adjusted EPS from both 4Q 'twenty two to 4Q 'twenty three and FY 'twenty two to FY 'twenty three can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Free cash flow was $2,600,000,000 With free cash flow margin of 27.4 percent versus 23.1 percent in 4Q as working capital was a greater source of cash compared to the prior year. We deployed $2,600,000,000 of cash flow to share repurchases, dividends, high return CapEx and M and A. The 4th quarter was another strong win for our backlog, which grew to a new record of $31,800,000,000 up 8% year over year and 1% sequentially due to strength in aero, PMT and HBT.

Speaker 3

Orders were up 1% in the quarter led by growth in commercial aero, PMT and HBT, including orders growth in building products. This setup gives us confidence in our 2024 outlook,

Speaker 4

which I will discuss in a few minutes.

Speaker 3

As always, we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework, which is underpinned by our accelerator operating system. I'm confident in the strength of our backlog, the tailwinds we're seeing across our long cycle end markets and our ability to navigate a dynamic operating environment, which we have demonstrated year after year. Now let's spend a few minutes on the 4th quarter performance by business. Aerospace for the Q4 was up 15% organically year over year with 20% growth in Commercial Aviation. Our commercial original equipment business grew over 20% on increased deliveries to both Air Transport and Business and General Aviation customers.

Speaker 3

Commercial Aftermarket had another double digit growth quarter led by the strength in air transport market as increased flight hours continue to drive demand. Defense and Space sales grew again in the 4th quarter as the ongoing global focus on national security continues to drive robust demand, while we continue to work through supply chain challenges which govern that growth. Aerospace book to bill of around 1 in the 4th quarter is more evidence that demand continues to outpace supply, an encouraging sign that as the supply chain unlocks, We're well situated to capitalize on our advantageous position in the market. Segment margin expanded 20 basis points to 28% as a result of commercial excellence and volume leverage, which were partially offset by cost inflation and mix pressure in our original equipment business. Performance Material and Technology sales grew 4% organically in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

Advanced Materials was up 6%, Returning to growth in the quarter driven primarily by a double digit increase in flooring products. In HPS sales were up 4% organically As we saw continued strength in Lifecycle Solutions and Services and Smart Energy, UOP sales grew 1% organically as a result of robust seasonal demand in petrochemical cattle shipments, partially offset by lower volumes in gas processing. Our Sustainable Technology Solutions business finished the year with over 30% sales and orders growth in the 4th quarter. Orders for P&T grew across all three businesses. Segment margin expanded 200 basis points to 24% as a result of productivity actions, favorable business mix and commercial excellence net of inflation.

Speaker 3

Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 24% organically in the quarter, primarily as a result of lower volumes and warehouse and workflow solutions and productivity solutions and services. The projects portion of our Intelligrated business remains around trough levels as investments warehouse automation continue to be subdued. However, our pipeline of new projects is robust and we are committed to delivering Innovative solutions to a widening array of customers in this market, positioning Honeywell to win in an eventual recovery. In our Productivity Solutions and Service business, we continue to work through the effects of distributor destocking, but over 30% orders growth in the quarter provides some confidence that we are near the end of that cycle. Sensing and Safety Solutions remains relatively resilient despite short cycle challenges in a few end markets.

Speaker 3

Segment margin in SPS contracted 2 90 basis points to 17.3%, driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. Building Technologies sales were down 1% organically as growth in our long cycle building solutions business was offset by modest declines in short cycle building products. Solutions grew 6% in the quarter, led by high single digit growth in building services, driven by strong execution and past due backlog burn down. Orders were strong across the board in the 4th quarter as every business grew year over year. Segment margin contracted 90 basis year over year to 23.9 percent due to cost inflation and mix headwinds, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence.

Speaker 3

Growth across our portfolio was supported by another quarter of double digit sales growth in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, which remains accretive to overall Honeywell. Our offerings in connected industrial, cyber, connected buildings, Life Sciences and Connected Aircraft all grew by more than 20% year over year in the quarter. For the full year, HCE sales and profit Both grew by double digits, which is an indicator of the power of our strong software franchise. With 2023 now in the rear view, we're excited about Honeywell's favorable setup to accelerate growth in 2024. Let's turn to Slide 7 to talk about our outlook for the year.

Speaker 3

We expect the environment to remain dynamic, but the power of our accelerator operating system enables us to move quickly and decisively to drive growth, protect margins, ensure liquidity and position ourselves well to deliver on our commitments. I'm confident we'll do that again in 2024. Our end market exposures across Aerospace, Automation and Energy remain favorable With continued commercial aviation fleet growth, higher defense investment, heightened focus on automation due to labor scarcity, intensifying energy demands and decarbonization goals and increased infrastructure spending. These compelling vertical tailwinds are underpinned by the ongoing demand for digitalization and our record level backlog, which will support robust organic growth for the business. This outlook is somewhat tempered by the uncertain timing of an eventual recovery in the short cycle as markets return to normalcy, which we see as the swing factor to our sales outcome for the year.

Speaker 3

But we're excited by the prospects of this reacceleration in the coming quarters. Overall, we have a strong setup that will drive growth within our long term financial framework for sales, margin, earnings and cash in 2024. Our robust balance sheet and strong cash generation will support accretive capital deployment. And while we're happy with our recently announced transaction, We will continue to build on our accretive M and A pipeline as we optimize the portfolio. Now let's turn to Slide 8 to discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2020 guidance.

Speaker 3

Given the backdrop, in total for 2024, we expect sales of $38,100,000,000 to $38,900,000,000 which represents an overall organic sales growth range of 4% to 6% for the year with a greater balance between volume and price. Our guide anticipates some short cycle recovery to begin in the second half of the year, albeit likely at different rates for our various end markets, creating a somewhat back half weighted outlook. Additionally, we remain keenly focused on new product innovation, maintaining our leadership position in high growth regions, monetizing our vast installed base and strengthening our software franchise, which we expect to provide resiliency to the year. We also expect the aero supply chain to continue to improve gradually sequentially throughout the year as it did in 2023. For the Q1, we anticipate sales in the range of $8,900,000,000 to $9,200,000,000 flat to up 3% organically.

Speaker 3

We expect our overall segment margin to expand 30 to 60 basis points next year, supported by improving business mix, continued price cost discipline and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw material costs. Similar to last year, we expect building automation margins to expand the most as we benefit from productivity actions and build on continued commercial excellence, followed by industrial automation and energy and sustainability solutions. For Aerospace, volume leverage will cover continued investment in our innovation platforms and in the supply chain to unlock volume, keeping our margin rate within a tight band of our recent levels, while enabling us to deliver robust year over year profit growth. For the Q1, we expect overall segment margin in the range of 21.9% to 22.2%, down 10 to up 20 basis points year over year. Importantly, our guidance for both the first quarter and the full year for 2024 does not consider the planned acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business.

Speaker 3

We anticipate the closing of the deal by the end of the third quarter and we'll update our guidance accordingly at that time. Now let's spend a few minutes on our outlook by business. In Aerospace Technologies, we expect that robust demand will remain throughout 2024 as our record level backlog provides a catalyst for growth. In Commercial Original Equipment, build rates continue to trend upwards, driving increase in ships at deliveries primarily in air transport. On the commercial aftermarket side, we expect to see volume strength as flight hours continue to improve, particularly in wide body as international travel normalizes further.

Speaker 3

In Defense and Space, supply chain constraints, not demand, will be the limiting factor on volume growth. However, our output growth of 18% in 2023 across Arrow gives us confidence in our ability to execute and we anticipate modest sequential improvement throughout the year. For overall Aerospace, we expect organic growth in the low double digit range of 2024. While we again expect Arrow to be our fastest top line grower, margins will likely remain at comparable levels to 2022 and 2023 as higher sales of lower margin products are mostly offset by increased volume leverage. In the Q1, we expect to see low teens organic growth Year over year, as the progress we made on supply chain throughout 2023 covered with our record backlog will drive continued meaningful year over year output growth.

Speaker 3

For Industrial Automation, the timing of short cycle recovery will play a key factor in 2024 results and will likely lead to a back half weighted year. In Process Solutions, we expect to further build on the success we in 'twenty three with another strong year of growth, particularly in our projects and aftermarket services business. Our Sensing and Safety Technologies and Productivity Solutions and Service businesses will benefit as the effects of distributor destocking fade throughout the year. In Warehouse and Workflow Solutions, we expect to move through the trough of the warehouse automation spending cycle, capitalizing on our robust pipeline and easier year over year comps as the year goes on. As a result of these dynamics, we expect IA sales to be flattish in 2024.

Speaker 3

Segment margin should expand particularly in the second half as short cycle recovery leads to volume leverage benefits. In the Q1, IA will remain sequentially stable, while challenging comparisons in warehouse automation demand that is still near trough levels will weigh on year over year growth, leading to high single digit to low double digit sales declines year over year. Turning to building automation, we see it we expect to see our long cycle businesses again outpace our short cycle portfolio, particularly early in 2024. Overall, the timing of the short cycle recovery will be one of the key drivers of performance in the year and likely lead to stronger results in the second half. Both projects and services will grow on the strength of existing backlog and tailwinds from aftermarket services.

Speaker 3

We are seeing encouraging signs in our core verticals both in as institutional investment in developing regions will be an engine for growth in BA. We anticipate our short cycle products businesses will benefit inventory levels normalize. For Building Automation, we forecast full year sales growth to be low single digit year on year. Despite this, we anticipate BA will be the segment with the largest margin expansion, primarily driven by productivity actions and commercial excellence net of inflation. In the Q1, we expect sales growth to be similar to the Q4 as destocking reaches its late stages.

Speaker 3

In Energy and Sustainability Solutions, the macro environment will provide both puts and takes in 2024. UOP growth will be led by strength in our Catalysts and Services businesses, while our Process Technologies business, Modular Equipment growth will likely be offset by volume headwinds from challenging comps in LNG equipment. In solutions, robust demand will lead to another record year of growth. In Advanced Materials, strength in the broader Flooring Products business, particularly in our Solsys portfolio will be offset by expected volume declines in our legacy stationary products due to well telegraphed quota reductions in the U. S.

Speaker 3

Within the rest of Advanced Materials, improving short cycle demand over the course of 2024, particularly from semiconductor fab will support the top line. Overall, we expect ESS sales to be flat up low single digits for the year compared to 2023. Margins should improve in 2024, though not as much as in our other segments, Thanks to both commercial excellence and productivity actions. In the Q1, we expect sales to be down mid to high single digits year over year as we work through challenging comps, particularly in our gas processing business and prepare for higher activity levels as the year progresses. Moving on to other key guidance metrics.

Speaker 3

Pension income will be roughly flat to 2023 at approximately $550,000,000 which is modestly more positive than compared to our outlook comments from the Q3 earnings call as the interest rate environment became slightly more favorable towards the year end. As a reminder, pension income is a non cash item given our overfunded pension status will ensure no incremental contributions are needed. This is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current and our shareholders. Net below the line impact to be between negative $550,000,000 negative $700,000,000 for the full year and between negative $140,000,000 negative $190,000,000 in the Q1. This guidance includes a slight improvement in year over year repositioning spend, which will be between $200,000,000 $300,000,000 for the full year and between $60,000,000 $100,000,000 in the first quarter, as we continue to invest in high return projects to support our future growth and productivity.

Speaker 3

We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 21% for the full year and around 22% for the Q1 due to timing of discrete payments. We anticipate average share count to be around 656,000,000 shares for the full year as we execute on our commitment to reduce share count by at least 1% per year through opportunistic buybacks. As a result of these inputs, we anticipate full year adjusted earnings per share be between $9.80 $10.10 up 7% to 10% year on year. We expect 1st quarter earnings per share to be between $2.12 $2.22 up 2% to 7% year over year. Included in the appendix is a bridge that walks the elements of 2024 adjusted earnings per share from 2023.

Speaker 3

You'll see the primary year over year drivers are higher volumes and increased productivity with lower share count offsetting below the line changes, which are primarily from higher net interest expense. On free cash flow, we expect to grow in line with earnings, excluding the after tax impact of last year's one time settlement from derisking our balance sheet. We will begin the multi year unwind of working capital where our digitalization capabilities through Accelerator are improving demand planning and optimizing production and materials management. In addition, we see several compelling growth oriented capital investment opportunities and expect to fund high return projects focused on creating uniquely innovative differentiated technologies. As a result, We expect free cash flow to be in the $5,600,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 range, up 6% to 13%, excluding the impact of prior year settlements.

Speaker 3

A 2024 free cash flow bridge is in the appendix and summarizes the drivers of year over year growth with net income growth being the largest factor followed by working capital improvements, partially offset by modestly higher growth CapEx spend. Regarding capital deployment, while we're focused on executing our robust M and A pipeline, opportunistic share repurchase at highly attractive valuations, which you saw in the second half of twenty twenty three as we accelerated our buyback in 3Q and again in 4Q remains an important part of our framework, A vote of confidence in Honeywell's performance and that will continue to be true in 2024. So in summary, while we're cautious on the macroeconomic backdrop, our leverage to the key macro trends of aerospace, automation and the energy transition underpinned by digitalization, will be complemented by a record backlog and accelerated operating system, give us confidence in delivering another strong year in 2024. So with that, let me turn it back to Vimal on Slide 9.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Greg. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the near term dynamics and talk about how our Last May, we unveiled our updated long term financial growth algorithm. One of the strengths of that framework is that we have demonstrated that we can balance between the levers we have to deliver what matters, Consistent, compelling EPS growth. Let me unpack this for a moment. Our annual 4% to 7% organic sales growth and 40 basis point of margin expansion alone will deliver 6% to 10% of organic EPS growth.

Speaker 2

Some years, one or other of these elements move, but As you've seen, 6% to 10% delivery has been consistent hallmark of Honeywell. When coupled with 1% to 2% of EPS accretion from both share buyback and consistent M and A execution, we are confident we'll deliver double digit adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint on a through cycle basis. The strength of our dividend currently yielding about 2% also adds further value to our shareholder returns. Although there has been some noise in our results mostly related to below the line, we have delivered 8% segment profit growth and 2% adjusted EPS from the share repurchases on an average during the past 3 years in line with the long term financial framework. Now we are ramping up M and A lever which should drive incremental benefits.

Speaker 2

With that, let's go to the next page to discuss our recent progress on this long term growth algorithm. As you can see on Slide 10, our 2023 results represent another year of strong financial performance consistent with our framework following meaningful progress since 20 seen in organic growth, gross margin, segment margin expansion and free cash flow reacceleration. Similarly, our 2024 expectation for organic growth, gross margin, segment margin and free cash flow margins solidly in line with our long term commitment as we continue to make steady consistent improvement in quality of Honeywell's financial profile. We are reorienting the organization to prioritize organic growth, deploying the operational power of Accelerator 3.0 and executing on a robust portfolio optimization strategy, which will enable us to achieve our long term targets. I look forward to the next phase of transformation and remain optimistic about the tremendous opportunities we are uncovering to capture value, drive incremental sales growth, expand margins and generate more cash.

Speaker 2

We'll continue to track our progression closely and update you as these efforts increasingly translated into our enhanced financial performance. Now let's turn to Slide 11 for closing thoughts before we move to Q and A session. We delivered on all of our 2023 commitments. We are confident in our ability to better the dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop with operating rigor you have come to expect of Honeywell. Recent record backlog levels, Ongoing strength in our biggest end markets, aerospace and energy, as well as impending recovery in our short cycle business will support strong results as we progress through 2024.

Speaker 2

I remain optimistic about the future of Honeywell and believe the company is well positioned to drive the innovation needed to solve some of the world's most challenging problems. The future is really what we make it. With that, Sean, let's move to Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question and one related follow-up. Camilla, please open the line for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, Steve. Good morning, Steve.

Speaker 5

Can you just talk about the sequential progression in EPS as we move through the year off of the Q1 base here?

Speaker 3

Just talking about for the full year. Yes.

Speaker 5

I mean the Q1 is a little bit light as a Percentage of the year. So just trying to understand how things build for the next three quarters to get to the midpoint of guide?

Speaker 3

Sure. Sure. I mean, if you look at the guide we're giving for Q1, it's actually not that different from 2023. As we progress through the year, we're going to expect to see the short cycle revenue inflection More likely between 2 and 3Q than 1 and 2Q in terms of the level of that acceleration. And so I think the EPS will follow along with that.

Speaker 3

I mean, the last 2 years, Our EPS has been more back end weighted in 3rd Q4 than our prior history. I think it's going to look fairly similar this year.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then just one on the buildings business. What are you guys seeing there and what are you assuming for The products business in the next few quarters, obviously a lot of noise in the channel there and also just from an end market demand Maybe touch on regionally as well in the buildings business?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, Sathip, so we had a quarter 4 finish in which our buildings orders were grew up across all segment, both in building products and in building solutions. So that puts us in a good setup for 2024. To your specific question, The setup we have is allows us to see sequential progress in the short cycle as the year progresses. And the front end of the year will see more strength in our solution side of the business.

Speaker 2

Europe remains challenged as it was over the last several quarters. And in U. S, we are in the late innings of destocking of the distributor inventories. So that's the overall I think the what excites me about the business is the work we have done on new products that's going to position us well. Our strength in high growth regions, which is performing exceedingly well.

Speaker 2

So net net, we remain pretty confident on growth in building solutions, building automation business in 2024, specifically margin expansion and a continent of delivering strong results there.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to try and think about the progress through the year from a segment margin standpoint. So I guess you've had 7 So you're exiting the year in Q4 maybe with margins up 100 bps plus. So just trying to understand starting Q1 at 0 Q4 up 100. Where does kind of the sharpest improvement come on a segment basis as you go through the year?

Speaker 6

And do we think about that margin year on year improvement firm wide as just being pretty steady as we go through 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Julian. Again, I would tell you the a lot of the guidance fundamentals are tied pretty closely to the short cycle recovery. And what I mean by that is, we don't expect a big inflection in the first half. And so therefore, our segment profit improvement in the first half versus the second half is going to be a bit lower.

Speaker 3

And as those short cycle businesses recover, Remember, those are some of the highest margin businesses in the portfolio. So that volume leverage is going to be pretty powerful as we go through the year. And that will be true in each of those non aero related businesses.

Speaker 2

What I'll add, Julian, is if I look at the full year picture for the margin expansion, what we have committed 30 to 60 basis points, there are 3 broad drivers. The pricing will remain of the order of 3%. Our price cost will not be a headwind. We remain very confident on our pricing execution. 2nd, we will see good productivity in 2024.

Speaker 2

Material productivity remains strong in Q4 and we expect that to roll up on a full year basis in 2024. We also have made good progress in executing AI in our operation and that will be also a source of productivity in 2024. And finally, the short cycle recovery point, which Greg made as that unpacks itself, the margin accretion we have on that is pretty substantial. So when you put it all together, we remain extremely confident on our margin expansion algorithm.

Speaker 6

That's helpful. Thank you. And just My quick follow-up, if we look at, say, Slide 15, trying to understand sort of the shape of that Sales recovery, you've got those 2 units at the bottom, Productivity Solutions and Service and Warehouse and Workflow. If you're thinking about those 2 businesses, one exited the year, just finished down 25% and the other exited down 50%. What's the exit rate from 24 for those 2 that's embedded in the sales guide, please?

Speaker 3

Yes. Again, we don't guide that specifically, but you should expect that this exit rate diminishes As the year progresses and as we get into the back half of the year, that turns to be something that is likely positive on productivity solutions and services and will be flattish on warehouse and workflow solutions and perhaps up, we'll see how the year progresses on the project side. An important thing to keep in mind is inside of the warehouse business in particular, We've got actually a very rich mix now on the aftermarket services business. So while the projects orders will really the thing that will govern the top line progression overall, we see double digit growth continuing in the aftermarket bit, which of course is where we capture the value from the installed base. So we feel very good about the progression of that as we go through the year.

Speaker 2

Maybe to add to Greg's point on Warehouse Solutions business, the top line has been challenging, But I see that this as not a headwind for EPS in 2024. We have taken action that Greg spoke about aftermarket. Aftermarket continues to be strong and will be a factor of growth in 2024. We have taken meaningful action in our cost base, specifically on supply chain. And when we put those actions together, which is in our control, we see margin expansion in this business.

Speaker 2

And in spite of top line pressure, It will not be a source of EPS solution. It will be a source of EPS accretion.

Speaker 1

And Julien, this is Sean. If I could add just one more thing there. From a modeling perspective, keep in mind, it's not just a dynamic embedded in our model for 'twenty four, second half likely stronger than first half. It's also that second half 'twenty three was weaker than first half 'twenty three. So both those have influenced the year over year growth rate as talking about exiting 'twenty three versus exiting 'twenty four.

Speaker 6

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, Bill Mullen, Greg and Sean.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Guys,

Speaker 9

we

Speaker 7

Can we take an opportunity to take a step backwards at least and just walk around the world a little bit on what you're assuming? I assume, Vimal, you probably have pretty good read on what's going on in China. It's been a tough region for a lot of your peers. But You don't need to really focus on aerospace because it's a different dynamic. But for the other businesses perhaps just a little bit of color on what you're expecting.

Speaker 7

Any differences in 'twenty four geographically versus 'twenty 23% that would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Scott. So specific talking about Let me start with China. We grew about 7% in 2023. I don't expect a material shift between 2024 to 2023, we have weathered a tough year in 2023 China's economic cycle.

Speaker 2

And I expect 2024 to be a shade better, But it's no more going to be a source of high growth what it used to be 5 or 7 years back. Speaking more broadly of high growth regions, which represents almost 25% of the Honeywell revenue now. We had very good performance in Middle East and India in particular and we expect those to continue in 2024. India grew for us high double digits. In 2023, we have very meaningful revenue there, Similar good performance in Mid Lease.

Speaker 2

So we expect those regions to perform well. All in all, I expect high growth regions to grow double digit, which will be a source of organic growth about 1% and overall Honeywell algorithm of organic growth. Europe remains challenging. No, we have seen headwinds in some portions of our businesses and tailwinds on some other portions. So net net, it's more neutral to negative.

Speaker 2

And U. S, of course, we are like everybody else waiting for interest rate environment to settle and that will determine the performance of our business specifically on the short cycle. So that's kind of my broad overview of how we see different geographies.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. And then a little bit of a nuance here. Would you classify the Carrier deal as a bolt on? It seems Like a little larger than a bolt on by my definition, but kind of curious how you think about it because clearly in your slides you mentioned bolt on deals being the focus.

Speaker 7

And If we were to expect other kind of $5,000,000,000

Speaker 9

ish I

Speaker 2

would call it because my argument is that Bolt on to me is which is adding to our core portfolio and propels the growth of organic growth of the business itself. So that's what this business is. To see our Buildings Products business, our strategy is to have products which are specified, which are critical for the building. We had a moderate position in security with the addition of this portfolio makes us a meaningful player. And therefore, I call it a bolt on because it's a continuum of our strategy.

Speaker 2

We are not finding a new adjacency. We're not exploring some new idea. It's something we understand extremely well. And therefore, our confidence to add shareholder value here is extremely strong.

Speaker 3

And keep in mind, it's at $5,000,000,000 it's something like 4% of our So reasonably,

Speaker 1

it's not

Speaker 3

a huge bet as it relates to that as well. Obviously, very different world than when our market cap was half that 10 years ago.

Speaker 7

Sure. Understood. Thank you, guys. I will pass it on. Good luck this year.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Stuart.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Yes, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Andrew.

Speaker 8

Hey, just looking at UOP, was a little bit surprised by the growth in the quarter. I would have thought with SDS being strong And I know you sort of gave us, I think was it gas products, but can you just tell us what kind of visibility do you have on this business accelerating into 2024 because it is sort of I guess that's what you're guiding to, but just a little bit more granularity there. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure, Andrew. So 23 revenue look is 1% growth. It's primarily driven by equipment revenue we had in the year, we had large equipment based projects in our volume, LNG projects. So on a year on year comp basis, don't repeat itself. But if you see the core UOP business on Catalyst remains pretty strong.

Speaker 2

Your specific question on Sustainability Technologies, as we mentioned during our earnings earlier, remain very confident on its performance. We crossed the benchmark of 50 licenses of sustainable aviation fuel just few weeks back. Now we are seeing activity in carbon capture projects, Early innings on hydrogen projects. So our plans to have sustainable technology business of $1,000,000,000 in next few years haven't and my confidence of that absolutely has only grown higher over the last few months.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I would also just zoom out. I mean, we talk about Some of the variability in this business and PMT has always got some of the highest variability with UOP being a big part of that. Keep in mind, we grew sales in UOP for the year something like 8%, very, very healthy. And we've also grown orders somewhere in that same neighborhood, I think 2% for the year, but with 13% in the catalyst business.

Speaker 3

So we've got we've come off some big comps with the large LNG projects. Overall, this is a very healthy business with a very healthy So and as you said, the STS business provides a really nice catalyst on that new aspect of it, But we feel very good about where UOP is at this stage.

Speaker 8

Excellent. And just to follow-up on Advanced Materials. I guess same question. The business has returned to growth. Just what are you seeing maybe in a little bit more detail driving positive outlook for 'twenty four, I think Chemours is constructive there as well.

Speaker 8

And maybe you can throw in a lot of questions on semis. I guess that's part of it as well, just if you expand on that. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, we do see recovery in semis modestly increasing every month is becoming modestly better. So that's part of our forecast for 2024. We also saw in Q4, recovery in some segments of chemicals in short cycle and we expect that to roll over in 2024.

Speaker 2

So the short cycle recovery on a broader Huntville portfolio is not a one event. So it's going to happen in So chemicals happened late Q4 and we expect that to continue. So all in all, Advanced Materials should have better year in 2024 compared to what we had in 2023.

Speaker 8

Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. And a bit more congrats on the Chairman role. So lots of more than questions.

Speaker 9

So here's a few more. Couple more. Pricing, I'm not sure if you've caught up price, but maybe if you just talk about where you've been better for price in your revenue build. But Seems that we're entering the year with 2 of the segments down pretty heavily. Maybe just talk about how you see that Break back the growth for IA and ESS, is that in the second quarter, is it more second half loaded?

Speaker 9

And perhaps maybe talk about what you've seen in the order rates to maybe support the view that we are at the bottom in some of these markets?

Speaker 2

Yes. So For IA and ESS, I would say IA broadly as we said will be flattish on a year on year basis. The strength we see there is in Process Solutions in particular that's it had a strong 2023. We another strong 2024 from Process Solution. Rest of IA is a short cycle recovery.

Speaker 2

We saw pockets of that happening in Q4 in our scanning and mobility business. Now other portions have to also recover during course of the year. I talked about our warehouse automation business and how we expect that to perform during course of the year, specifically on the margin side. So that's definitely is part of our forecast. On ESS, we briefly talked in earlier question.

Speaker 2

UOP is carrying a pretty strong booking and backlog. So we expect a good year from UOP in 2020 And then I talked about Advanced Materials a bit earlier there. On orders rate, The Q4 orders were up 1%, which helped us to further bolster our backlog now to record high level. Specifically on orders, there were highlights on short cycle, early green shoots in building products, In scanning and mobility business and parts of chemicals business, which is a good sign because if couple have shown, I remain confident this will grow more broadly across the portfolio, long cycle strong bookings in Commercial Aerospace, in UOP, in Process Solutions. There were some lumpiness in orders in Warehouse Automation and Defense and Space, which I talked earlier.

Speaker 2

So net net, our long cycle orders performed extremely well on an annualized basis in 2023 and short cycle is showing early cycle of recovery, which gives me confidence for 2024.

Speaker 3

Yes. And maybe just as the last point on pricing, we talked about 4% for 2023, that's exactly where it came in. And the more balanced view of price versus volume in our model for 2024 is really 3% pricing. So And that's going to be, to Dimel's point, I think price cost neutral to maybe slightly positive for the year. So we feel very good about our ability to deliver on that.

Speaker 3

We've talked about that at length in the past. I think our capabilities in that area have been very strong and we continue to be confident going into next

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful, Greg. And quick follow-up on the cash flow. Nice to see the pickup year over year. I'm guessing the tax benefits potential tax benefits from R and D kind of rollback, I'm seeing that's not in your guide, but just curious about does pass the Senate, what kind of benefit you might see for 2024 free cash flow?

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, first of all, there's It's not nearly home as I'm sure you can appreciate. So, we're not sitting here counting any chickens. To be honest, Nigel, I think we need to wait and see exactly how all the rules first whether it happens and how they set the rules. As you can appreciate, all of the specifics matter a lot in this area.

Speaker 3

So no, we're not guiding anything special about that. We'll wait and see exactly what happens and interpret that and integrate it into our view when it becomes a real thing.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Good morning, guys, and thank you. Hi, Sheila. Maybe I'll start off with Aerospace, if that's okay. You talked about it growing low double digits. How do we think about the OE growth there?

Speaker 10

What build rates are you embedding into that on the commercial aerospace side? And any color you could give on aftermarket and defense growth?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, Sheila, we expect the overall low digit guide includes continued high growth rate of OE. As we saw in 2023, that will repeat itself in 2024. Also expect double digit growth in aftermarket. Defense, we the biggest handle there.

Speaker 2

And as we make progress, we expect it to perform in that range in 2024 also. So but the biggest unlock for us is supply chain. We have demonstrated a strong performance in 2023. We expect Good start of the year and we'll unpack the year as the things progress.

Speaker 3

Yes. So to be clear, I mean, no new signals from the They're continuing to place the same level of demand on us that they have been. And so That's what we're committed to try to deliver.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. And then if I could ask one more, you've been asked every angle in terms of revenue growth acceleration. Outside of Era, what do you need to see in the other three segments to hit the high end of guidance? Is it just all based on short cycle recovery and the timing of that? Or is it some additional price capture?

Speaker 10

If you can maybe talk

Operator

about that?

Speaker 2

Yes. The biggest variable is the short cycle recovery and the pace of it, which remains variable. I mean, you look at 2024 set up for Honeywell in 3 buckets. Our backlog is up 8% and we convert backlog at a pretty predictable rate. So that's something which is highly deterministic.

Speaker 2

Number 2, the self help actions we are driving to drive growth. The self help action includes price, That includes new products. I talked about high growth regions, aftermarket services, all that is going to help us to drive growth regardless of the market. And then the 3rd variable is short cycle. If it returns quicker, we'll have an upper end of the growth or we can beat it if it surprises everybody and the vice versa.

Speaker 2

If it doesn't perform well during the course of the year, then we are at the lower end of the guide.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi. Your line is now open. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 11

Vilma, I just wanted to follow-up on the commentary that you're on track to exceed the $25,000,000,000 of capital deployment guidance from $23,000,000 to $25,000,000 Obviously, you announced the Carrier deal, but does that commentary suggest continued more aggressive capital deployment? Does your M and A pipeline support that? And then could you update us on the progress divesting the 10% of the sales you talked about previously?

Speaker 2

Yes. So I would say that Our capital deployment strategy would be balanced, which maximizes shareholder return. That's what we are really targeting for. It will be the balance. As Greg mentioned earlier, expect both M and A and share repurchases to be part of that element for 2024 years to come.

Speaker 2

The pipeline is adequate at this point of time and activity remains strong. So we are constantly looking at The deals which work in our algorithm, it has to be bolt on. It has to help to drive our overall organic growth and generally meet our financial algorithm, which we have earlier talked about. On The part of the portfolio which doesn't fit in well, we are going to drive action starting 2024. Of course, we are not going to rush through that because we need to capture shareholder value, but you can anticipate some initial actions on that during 2024.

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe just to put numbers on it, Andy, As we showed in that slide, I mean, we've been doing $8 ish billion per year. The simple math for 2024 says just with carrier, that number is 10, going in with just enough share repurchase to buy back the CREEP. We're going to be sitting at 18 through 2 years towards the 25 plus number. So the high confidence that we're going to be above that level just with the math.

Speaker 11

And then just a quick follow-up. You managed to grow aero margin by 20 basis points in Q4 Even with OE mix being against you and you talked about supply chain improving in 2024. I know you're saying it'll marginal stay in a tight range, but if Splicing does continue to improve. Is there an opportunity there with all of your productivity projects in that segment?

Speaker 2

Look, I mean, there is a volume growth there, which will continue and the volume leverage gets offset by the OE mix, which I talked earlier, the OE mix remains strong. But we are also Andy investing into Aerospace. The volume growth is not coming accidentally. We have invested into our supply chain operations, supplier recovery, which is demonstrating the continuous volume growth occurred in 2023 2024. When you put those facts together that really drives the margin forecast for Arrow at this point.

Speaker 11

Helpful, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Yes, thanks. Good morning, Vimal, Greg. Hi, good morning. Hey, Greg. Just a quick one.

Speaker 4

You mentioned in just kind of the legacy Segment SBS, you were talking about warehouse, that the pipeline of kind of in the projects business that there was There were some signs that there was some at least some improvement there. Maybe if you could just give us a little color there just because it's obviously, it's been That particular area has had a big downturn here.

Speaker 9

I can

Speaker 2

start there and Greg can join. Look the pipeline if I compare simple facts, our pipeline in Jan of 2024 compared to Jan of 2023 for our warehouse automation projects, It's up nearly 30%. So what it tells us is that the basic value proposition and the long term trend of warehouse automation are intact, but customers' willingness to invest in this very tight market or uncertain market is what is holding them back for making capital decisions. So we remain absolutely convicted on this business And the foundational actions we have taken on continue to grow our aftermarket, they are really paying off. I mean, our aftermarket businesses crossed $500,000,000 mark in 2023.

Speaker 2

We expect double digit growth in aftermarket in 2024. And you can expect the business almost cupping half projects and half aftermarket in this year. So as the market confidence returns, we'll see the growth back And that's supported by the pipeline we have and activity in the market.

Speaker 4

Very helpful color. Thanks. I'll leave it at one.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Dan.

Speaker 12

Maybe circling back to Nigel's question on pricing, the three points that's embedded into your Is that disproportionately coming from aero or how do I just kind of think about pricing across the segments?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, Aero is probably on the mid to lower end of that just given all the contract nature of their business and the other businesses, the other three segments are going to be a bit higher than that overall. So that's really without being too specific, that's sort of directionally or notionally, how you should think about it.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. Thanks, Greg. And then the quick follow-up, just circling I'm trying to Square, the commentary on HBT and the destocking that you're seeing in the products business with obviously you're Excited about the security acquisition and the growth profile of that business appears to be different. I'm just trying to square those comments And maybe you can kind of help me with what you're seeing within your own security business today?

Speaker 2

No, as I mentioned before, we expect the trend of the year growth to be more driven by solutions side of the business, we are carrying forward meaningful backlog both in projects and services. And as the year progresses, we expect short cycle recovery to be the key factor for growth in the as the year passes along. And net net, we expect low single digit growth in Building Technologies, but strong margin expansion. Our commercial excellence actions are in place And we remain confident that we're going to have a meaningful progress in the year both on growth and margin expansion.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I would just say, Joe, Zoom out for a minute and we're coming at towards the end of a 3 year period where again COVID then followed by big supply chain constraints followed by massive inflation and that's why you hear everyone talking about what's going on inventory stocks all over. And yes, as that thing normalizes, that's going to make things clear across many of our products businesses, including HBT. But more broadly, again, zooming out, We love the we love where this business is going and also creating that sizable position in Security with a very attractive asset that we're bringing on from Carrier, yes, we're very excited about that opportunity because we think that's going to be accretive growth across the portfolio for us. So it's just a matter of, I would say, differentiating between the here and now and the medium to longer term with those comments.

Speaker 12

Helpful. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 3

Got it.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO, Vimal Kapoor for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I want to thank all our shareholders for your ongoing support and our Honeywell colleagues who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment. Our future is bright and we look forward to updating you on our progress as we execute on our commitments. Thank you very much for listening and please stay safe and healthy.

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Earnings Conference Call
Honeywell International Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00