Safehold Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 13, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Safehold's 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the conference over to Pierce Hoffman, Senior Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Safehold's earnings call. On the call, we have Jay Sugarman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Brett Asness, Chief Financial Officer and Tim Dougherty, Chief Investment Officer. This morning, we plan to walk through a presentation that details our Q4 fiscal year 2023 results. The presentation can be found on our website at safeholdinc.com by clicking on the Investors link.

Speaker 2

There will be a replay of this conference call beginning 2 p. M. Eastern Time today. The dial in for the replay is 877-481 In order to accommodate all those who want to ask questions, we ask that participants limit themselves to 2 questions during Q and A. Before I turn the call over to Jay, I'd like to remind everyone that Statements in this earnings call, which are not historical facts, may be forward looking.

Speaker 2

Our actual results may differ materially from these forward looking statements, And the risk factors that could cause these differences are detailed in our SEC reports. Safehold disclaims any intent or obligation to update these forward looking statements except as expressly required by law. Now with that, I'd like to turn it over to Chairman and CEO, Jay Sugarman. Jay?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Pierce, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. It's a new year and we want to make it a good one with a clear focus the expectation of a more favorable interest rate backdrop. If the consensus is correct and rates begin to finally fall this year, We're optimistic that we can return to solid growth in EPS, restart the deal in capital market engines and recapture the interest that was building in Carat. As most of you know and experienced with us, 2023 was a frustrating year. We reached a lot of key milestones and added important long term positives for the company, But rapidly rising interest rates overshadowed these positives, slowing deal flow and hurting our share price.

Speaker 3

But as you'll see in today's presentation, 2023's achievements have set the table for us going forward. As we wait for the headwinds we have been dealing with to begin to turn into tailwinds. Now let's have Brett take you through the Q4 and the year.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 3. 2023 was an important year for Safehold. While the overall operating environment was challenged by rate uncertainty and volatility, both of which weighed on transaction activity and our stock price, We are able to achieve a number of positive outcomes that we believe have the company positioned for success as stability and growth return. Internalizing management simplified our corporate architecture, improved ownership dynamics, brought all competitive advantages in house, meaningfully improved governance and put a cost structure in place that we believe should achieve long term synergies as we scale the business.

Speaker 4

On the investor front, we were pleased to add MSD Partners as a large investor in the business. Not only did they invest $100,000,000 into our common stock when the internalization closed, but they also let our 2nd carat investment round at a $2,000,000,000 valuation. On the credit side, both Moody's and Fitch appreciated the cleaner corporate structure and consistency in our strategy, which led to positive action from both. Fitch changed our outlook to positive and Moody's upgraded us to A3, which elevates our credit profile and is expected to result in improved cost and access capital over the long term. On the capital raising front, we raised $152,000,000 through the issuance of common equity to a diverse investor base again led by MSD Partners who participated at their pro rata ownership level.

Speaker 4

We accessed the bank market early in 2023 increasing the size of our revolving credit facilities to $1,850,000,000 adding a new bank partner and underscoring our deep relationships with our banking group. We also put in place a $500,000,000 joint venture with a sovereign wealth fund partner that adds liquidity and flexibility to pursue new ground lease opportunities. At year end, the total portfolio was $6,400,000,000 UCA was estimated at $9,800,000,000 GLTV was 44% and rent coverage was 3.6 times. We ended the year with $752,000,000 of liquidity, which is further enhanced by the unused capacity in our joint venture. Slide 4 provides a snapshot of our portfolio growth.

Speaker 4

During the Q4, we originated 3 new multifamily ground leases for $56,000,000 All three originations were fully funded at closing. 2 of the originations are wholly owned, one was done in the joint venture. The credit metrics associated with these deals are in line with our portfolio targets. GLTV of 39%, rent coverage of 2.8 times and an economic yield of 7.4%. In the Q4, we funded a total of $122,000,000 across 3 categories.

Speaker 4

Dollars 46,000,000 of Q4 new originations earning a 7 point 4% economic yield. That figure is net of our partners $10,000,000 JV interest in one deal, $68,000,000 of ground lease fundings on pre existing commitments that have a 6.3% economic yield And lastly, dollars 8,000,000 related to our 53% share of the leasehold loan fund, which earned interest at a weighted average spread of SOFR plus 6.04 for the quarter. For the full year, we closed on 7 multifamily ground leases for a gross commitment of 204,000,000 Safehold's share is $177,000,000 of which $63,000,000 remains unfunded. The credit metrics associated with these deals are consistent with our portfolio targets with a weighted average GLTV of 34%, rent coverage of 2.7 times an economic yield of 7.4%. For the full year, we funded a total of $529,000,000 across 5 categories.

Speaker 4

$114,000,000 of new ground lease originations earning a 7.4 percent economic yield, dollars 227,000,000 of ground lease fundings on pre existing commitments that have a 5.6 percent economic yield, dollars 43,000,000 related to our 53% share of the leasehold loan fund, which earned interest at a weighted average spread of SOFR plus 5.08 for the year, dollars 29,000,000 related to our 53% share of the ground lease plus fund, which earns a 7.2 percent economic yield and the $115,000,000 Star Holdings term loan earning 8%. Our ground lease portfolio now has 137 assets and the portfolio has grown 19 times since IPO. While the estimated unrealized capital appreciation sitting above our ground leases has grown 22 times. In total, the UCA portfolio is comprised of approximately 35,000,000 square feet of institutional quality commercial real estate consisting of approximately 18,000 units of multifamily, 12,500,000 square feet of office, over 5,000 hotel keys and 2,000,000 square feet of life science and other property types. Continuing on Slide 5, let me detail our quarterly and annual earnings results.

Speaker 4

For the Q4, GAAP revenue was $103,000,000 net income was $41,200,000 and earnings per share was $0.58 For the full year, GAAP revenues was $352,600,000 net income was negative $55,000,000 and earnings per share was negative $0.82 2023 was a noisy year for the P and L with several non recurring items, primarily merger related, obscuring true run rate earnings. After backing out one time items, net income for the 4th quarter was 25,500,000 and earnings per share was $0.36 Making the same adjustments for the full year along with backing out merger and carrier related costs, which weren't incurred in Q4, net income was $96,800,000 and earnings per share was 1.45 I won't spend time on adjustments from Q3 that were discussed on previous calls, but did want to highlight one notable non recurring item in the 4th quarter. During the quarter, we realized a $15,200,000 hedge gain through other income in our GAAP financials. We employed hedge accounting to reduce P and L volatility because it allows us to attach specific hedges to debt instruments and therefore recognize any gains or losses over the life of the debt rather than on a mark to market basis each quarter.

Speaker 4

In order to qualify for this accounting, we are required to attach the hedge to debt to a defined forecast date. In this case, we allowed a hedge forecast date to expire without attaching debt and we're required to recognize the value of the gain on that hedge all at once. I'll provide more detail on our overall hedging shortly, but I want to be clear that this is strictly an accounting requirement and we remain economically hedged at an appropriate level. This gain has been excluded from our previously mentioned adjusted earnings. Moving to Q4 and full year EPS, Excluding non recurring items of $0.36 $1.45 I will highlight a few reasons for the year over year decreases.

Speaker 4

First, total G and A net of the Star Holdings management fee was approximately $800,000 higher in the Q4 2023 and approximately $4,400,000 higher for the full year 2023 than the same respective periods in 2022. This increase was expected and has been communicated to the market prior to and when we internalized. Over time, we expect our cost to provide meaningful savings versus the previous growing and uncapped external management structure. I will return to G and A after highlighting 2 more variances. Next, as we mentioned on the last quarter's earnings call, in the Q3 we recognized a $1,900,000 GAAP loss related to terminating an option purchase a $215,000,000 ground lease beneath a spec office development in the Greater Seattle area.

Speaker 4

Lastly, interest expense for the Q4 and full year 2023 was higher due to elevated SOFR and a larger average drawn balance. Over the last 18 months, we have mitigated the impact of higher rates by putting in place $500,000,000 floating to fix swaps, fixing sulfur at approximately 3% as well as legging into $400,000,000 of long term hedges for permanent debt that are meaningfully in the money, but not yet flowing through the P and L. With that, let me now return to our cost structure and provide color on where we stand relative to initial projections. We initially messaged at the time of internalization that target G and A would be approximately $50,000,000 per year net of SDHL management fees. That cost structure was intended to support growth and benefit from strong operating leverage given the lack of variable costs required to manage a ground lease portfolio.

Speaker 4

Over the course of 2023, costs trended better than projections. Post internalization results indicated that net G and A was approximately 10% lower than expectations. Due to a pullback in overall real estate transaction activity, We have seen our origination volume slow accordingly. While we believe that this is a temporary slowdown, we are beholden to stakeholders want to be responsive in how we manage items in our control, including taking a critical view of costs. As such, we made certain headcount reductions during the Q4 in areas that we believe we have grown to be more efficient in.

Speaker 4

We expect additional savings from these changes. We're expecting net G and A in 2024 to be reduced by approximately 5% from what we incurred in 2023. While we are forecasting a lower cost structure and will be emphasizing efficiency, this in no way alters our growth ambitions. We will continue to invest in developing talent and growing productivity. Our goal remains to be the best in this large and underserved market We have a fantastic team in place to get us there.

Speaker 4

On Slide 6, we detail our portfolio's yields. Our ground leases have 2 different components of value. The first is a rent stream of compounding cash flows, which is akin to a high grade bond except our leases have additional inflation protection on top of that bonds do not provide. The second value component is the future ownership rights in the building at lease expiration. As we discussed in-depth last quarter, there is a significant disconnect what we recognize for GAAP versus what we underwrite and expect to earn economically.

Speaker 4

On our $6,300,000,000 portfolio, This yield delta equates to real earnings power and we will continue to speak about this difference and highlight the value components within our business that are less apparent in the financials. Portfolio currently earns a 3.5% cash yield and a 5.2% annualized yield for GAAP earnings. That GAAP annualized yield is punitive for certain legacy style ground leases that we acquired that have a variable rent component such as fair market value resets, percentage rent or CPI based escalators. For GAAP, we're required to assume 0 go forward growth and 0 go forward inflation for these components over the term of the lease. As such, we have a number of assets earning unrealistic or atypically low yields relative to our underwriting.

Speaker 4

To put a finer point on it, approximately 17% of our portfolio earns a 3.0% For GAAP annualized yields, although we expect to earn 5.8% under a standard 2% CPI or growth assumption. The second box utilizes basic bond or IRR math and applies conservative underwriting and standard growth expectations of 2%. That approach generates an expected 5.7 percent economic yield on the portfolio, which is in line with how we have underwritten these assets. The 50 basis point delta between the 5.2 percent GAAP yield versus the 5.7 percent economic yield On a $6,300,000,000 portfolio is a meaningful value component over time. Our yields have further upside when you layer in our periodic CPI look backs.

Speaker 4

Under the Federal Reserve's current long term breakeven rate of 2.24%, our 5.7 economic yield increases to a 5.8% inflation adjusted yield. The second component of value in the portfolio is our future ownership rights, which is the unrealized capital appreciation we track quarterly. Carrot is a subsidiary that owns UCA and Safe shareholders own 82% of Carat. Carat adjusted yield uses the inflation adjusted yield as a starting point and enumerates the estimated yield benefit from Safehold's 82% interest in carat at its latest $2,000,000,000 valuation. This adjustment produces a 7.4% carat adjusted yield, which is an illustrative metric intended to highlight this important value component that remains largely unrecognized by the market today.

Speaker 4

Turning to Slide 7, we show a geographic breakdown of our portfolio. The slide highlights the portfolio's diversification by location and underlying property type. Our top 10 markets by GBV are highlighted on the right representing approximately 70% of the portfolio. We include key metrics such as rent coverage and GLTV for each of these markets We have additional detail at the bottom of the page separating the portfolio by region and property type. It is clear that office as an asset class is going through a period of structural change and revaluation.

Speaker 4

And as a result, we are not surprised to see our office GLTVs increase. Based on the natural timing lag from the appraisal process, we would expect these figures to continue to increase over the coming quarters even after certain assets reach their cyclical bottom. Conversely, when certain assets begin to see more capital flows and better valuation prospects, We would expect a delay in recognizing that benefit. We continue to believe that investing in well located institutional quality ground leases in the top 30 markets that have attractive risk adjusted returns will benefit the company and its stakeholders over long periods of time. Lastly, on Slide 8, we provide an overview on our capital structure.

Speaker 4

At the end of the 4th quarter, we had approximately $4,400,000,000 of debt comprised of $1,500,000,000 of unsecured notes, dollars 1,500,000,000 of non recourse secured debt, dollars 1,100,000,000 drawn on our unsecured revolver $272,000,000 of our pro rata share of debt on ground leases, which we own in joint ventures. Our weighted average debt maturity is approximately 22.2 years we had no corporate maturities due until 2026, which was our revolving credit facility. At quarter end, we had approximately $752,000,000 of cash in facility availability. We look to manage interest rate risk on floating rate borrowings appropriately and have put a number of hedges in place to do so. Of the approximately $1,100,000,000 revolver balance outstanding, dollars 500,000,000 is swapped to fixed sulfur at 3%.

Speaker 4

This is a 5 year swap that we have protection on through April 2028. We currently receive swap payments on a current cash basis each month and at today's rates produces cash interest savings of approximately $3,000,000 per quarter that is currently flowing through the P and L. Of the remaining approximately $600,000,000 drawn, we have $400,000,000 of long term treasury locks at a weighted average rate of approximately 3.6%. Today, our long term hedges are approximately $55,000,000 in the money. The outstanding hedges are mark to market, so no cash changes hands each month.

Speaker 4

While we do recognize these gains on our balance sheet and AOCI, they are not yet recognized in the P and L. While these hedges can be utilized through the end of 2025, they can be unwound for cash at any point prior. As we look to turn out revolver borrowings with long term debt, we may unwind the hedges and attach the gain to the debt, lowering the effective economic rate we pay while amortizing the gain over a long period of time. The remaining unhedged exposure is largely offset by our higher yielding investments connected with the internalization, including the floating rate income we receive on our leasehold loan fund interest. The weighted average credit spread we earn on those loans exceeds what we pay on our line by 405 basis points.

Speaker 4

We are levered 1.9 times on a total debt to book equity basis. The effective interest rate on permanent debt is 3.9%, which is 138 basis point spread to the 5.2 percent GAAP annualized yield on the portfolio. The portfolio's cash interest rate on permanent debt is 3.3%, which is an 18 basis point spread to the 3.5% annualized cash yield. On the credit ratings front, we have previously discussed the Moody's A3 upgrade, which was a strong outcome at a difficult time underscores the fundamental credit strengths of the business and we believe it should have long term benefits for the company. Subsequent to quarter end, Fitch, who had put us on positive outlook in the beginning of 2023, recently affirmed our positive outlook.

Speaker 4

While we have accomplished numerous key drivers for an upgrade and the credit has improved in many important facets, we will continue to work with their team to accomplish our goal of reaching an A- rating. So to conclude, 2023 was a busy year that brought its fair share of challenges, We took a number of important steps to solidify the business and position ourselves for success as markets begin to stabilize and inevitably rebound. We remain focused on delivering value to our customers through our attractive capital solution and look forward to what 2024 has to offer. And with that, let me turn it back to Jay.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brent. As Brent mentioned, organizationally we've tightened the ship have been working to run leaner and more efficiently. We will of course add talent as growth justifies it, but feel very good with the team we have in place today. Ultimately, serving our customers and seeking to generate strong risk adjusted returns for investors is the path forward. So we will focus on these dual missions to help get the value of our business more appropriately recognized in the marketplace.

Speaker 3

And with that operator, let's open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is coming from Nais Crossett with BNP. Your line is live.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Two questions. First, Jay, maybe you can just speak to The pipeline right now, have you closed anything so far in Q1? When do you think we should maybe More activity to ramp this year. And then question 2 for Brett.

Speaker 5

You gave a lot of commentary on the balance sheet. On the revolver specifically, how should we be thinking about when you may look to term that out? And what would maybe pricing look like?

Speaker 3

Hey, Nick. Good morning. Yes, I would say on the pipeline, I like what I'm starting to see, Not likely to see an impact until the Q2, but definitely feels like a better Foundation to work from than maybe the last couple of quarters of last year where I think the rate uncertainty was really hitting The pipeline, we had a lot of deals, almost get to the finish line, but one way or the other didn't get there. So like the level of activity we're seeing, but It's going to take some time to build and turn those into real deals. So Q1 is definitely going to suffer and Q2, I think we're going to start to see the benefits of all the work our guys are putting in.

Speaker 4

Yes. As far as hey, Hanyan, it's Brett. Far as the balance sheet and the revolver, as I mentioned, we're drawn $1,100,000,000 We are appropriately hedged. So The current mark to market in the money gains that we have are roughly $55,000,000 So it feels like from a margin standpoint that we're locked in, but we certainly want to be able to term out some of those borrowings. The market obviously has been much more constructive to start the year versus when we on our last earnings call a few months ago when the 30 year and the 10 year were both above 5%.

Speaker 4

So now we're sitting at a much better level, but we're going to be opportunistic and think about what the right pocket is, think about what the right structure is. We have different options when it comes to tenure. So we really need to be thoughtful about either a public or a private execution. But we're hedged and we have ample liquidity off our revolver as well as the joint venture. So feel pretty good about our capital position as well as our hedging.

Speaker 5

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan. Your line is live.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you. Good morning. My first question is, I was wondering if you can maybe give us Either an example or some color around what a ground lease structure looks like for a multifamily sponsor today and What kind of leasehold proceeds they would get on GSE debt versus them just keeping fee, simple interest in their property? Just trying to understand sort of the value proposition that you all have been providing there?

Speaker 6

Hey, it's Tim Dougherty. Yes, so on the proposition for I guess you use multifamily as the example, Our success there in terms of 70 plus multifamily transaction I think shows what we're able to provide there. With some of these deals now that are being recapitalized, that's predominantly where the volumes coming in multifamily side, Coming to us with our cost of capital, so we're typically in that 65 over the 30 year treasuries or somewhere Depending on where treasuries are that day, in that period of time is somewhere around 5%. And then they're going to the capital markets and getting that capitalized On the debt side, getting similar debt yield dynamics on the leasehold and cash flow. And so the difference in capital on a traditional deal Fee Simple is somewhere in the 55% to 60% leverage.

Speaker 6

And then with the ground lease providing approximately 30 ish percent of the capital stack, Leasehold debt coming in, getting to roughly around the low 60s capitalization at a lower blended cost of capital. So that's the value proposition for our clients that we're talking to.

Speaker 1

Okay. So 5, if I caught all that right, about 5 to 10 points of extra proceeds going the ground lease route, slightly less maybe blended cash and then obviously have the growth in the ground lease payments over time. That's the sort of picture? Is that did I catch that all?

Speaker 6

Correct. Yes, correct. And on the so on the fee simple side, you're seeing the agencies are In the high 100s to 200 spread, is where their pricing, so their capital today is in the mid-6s versus our capital closer to 5 and that's the you can get to the blend there.

Speaker 1

Okay, thanks. And then second question, You commented about just the ground lease value to total kind of creeping up a little in office. But in general, Do you are there any of your leaseholders where the equity is in default? Or can you talk about just the monitoring process in terms of the underlying, what's happening, where there's debt on the leasehold and what's happening with the sponsors there?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think obviously, take a step back, I think all office markets are definitely in a recession. The supply and demand Still somewhat out of whack, Anthony. And so leasing has not really recovered in many gateway cities And that won't really change until we see demand pick back up. We have seen a few green shoots, particularly in New York City.

Speaker 3

You think about the best buildings and the best locations, we recently shopped the market, definitely have seen tightening. It's not just also the very best buildings, it's location driven. I would say anecdotally, we're in a 50 year old building with Low ceilings, no amenities, and we've seen rates actually jumping much higher. So it is going to be a market by market situation, but we haven't seen that in the other gateway cities. So our customers are obviously dependent on Leasing activity, that's their driver.

Speaker 3

Reminds me a little bit of the hotels in the COVID cycle is We kind of had to watch the whole sector when a sector gets under pressure and under That kind of stress, we're watching everything and definitely expect some of our customers to have a difficult time here. That means they're going to have conversations with their capital providers and we are here to be thoughtful and helpful If somebody needs to do something and reposition an asset, but 1st and foremost, it's their responsibility and any other capital providers to them. So we're watching that dynamic and certainly think in 2024, we're going to see a lot of Office come under that kind of stress, so something we didn't need to watch.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question

Speaker 7

A follow-up on Nate's question. I think Jay, you mentioned in your remarks, some deals are getting close to the finish line, but just We're quite getting over. Can you talk about what those where those deals get hung up or what the discussion points are? Is it an uncertain outlook? Is it something at the property level from a valuation standpoint?

Speaker 7

Kind of what's preventing more deals from getting over the finish line?

Speaker 3

Yes. I would tell you this interest rate environment is as volatile as I've ever seen. So we help craft a capital stack with the leasehold lender, with the equity. Sometimes they've got either mezz or preferred in that stack. Everybody's kind of tracking along and rates move 50 basis points and it just throws everything out of kilter.

Speaker 3

Some of those deals come back. We're definitely working on deals that we put our pens down on and rates have, at least early in the year, started to look a little more favorable and those have come back. So Tim's got a whole bunch of transactions that are going to be rate sensitive. So we're watching The information come through, and I know this morning is a step back. But Long term, we definitely see the trend turning more favorably.

Speaker 3

Customers are definitely trying to activate more than they were last year. But get a deal across the finish line, all those pieces need to line up. So a little bit of help from the macro environment would certainly be a positive.

Speaker 6

Thanks. And then as

Speaker 7

a follow-up on around the new investment side, all multifamily deals, can you talk about what markets Were they previous borrowers coming back for additional loans on new assets So the new borrowers that you haven't worked with before, can you give us a little more color on those three deals from Q4 and then kind of what the building pipeline looks like, any markets that appear more active than others?

Speaker 6

Sure. Hey, Tim. The 3 deals we closed We're in the student housing space and one was in, was a multifamily affordable deal. So the and then there's a good mix was existing clients as well as new clients. And I would say, look, on the student housing side, we're always focused on Top tier university systems and top schools within those systems, those were in the Sunbelt that fit that bill.

Speaker 6

And then the multifamily deal is in the affordable space, was out in California, super high barrier to entry market, new client. So that was of the existing. In terms of the pipeline and where it's building, it's predominantly in the multifamily space, both conventional, Student housing, age and income restricted is where we're seeing the most volume and also I would say is most actionable deals. So back to your Question on the where the markets go in. Look, the capital markets are going to drive the recovery in transaction volume and you're seeing Desire for especially like in the CMBS space is a good example or the agencies in the multifamily space.

Speaker 6

That's where liquidity is. And so that's driving volume there. And that's our focus is to go into areas that we see that are actionable and we actually can close on transactions that there's not Multiple speed bumps were, you're dependent on other market factors other than just, the capital market side. So we're paying attention to all the other product types. Per Jay's comments, you always have to keep an eye on them, understand where Recoveries or lack thereof are occurring, but again, the pipeline I would say is predominantly on the multifamily side.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, Tim. Appreciate the comments this morning.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Mitch Germain with Citizens JMP. Your line is live.

Speaker 8

Thanks a lot guys. So it seems like rent coverage for new originations dipped a little relative to the overall portfolio. What's driving that factor?

Speaker 6

Hi, this is Tim again. Predominantly, I mean, rates impact the deals, also our underwriting standards in terms of how we factor in coverage when we close transaction. I think Brett has alluded to Those factors that what coverage is based on our underwriting versus actual performance on the development side in particular. But look, these are high quality transactions that some of them are going through stabilization. So that's where you see some of these on think some of the coverage is in particular on the new

Speaker 8

investments. So coverage will likely improve over time as the asset stabilizes is what you're implying?

Speaker 6

Yes. I think the other factor you're seeing too is on the multifamily transactions tend to be tighter coverages than the other asset classes. It's a market that has a lot of stability, embedded growth in terms of the macro Economics of those transactions in the markets we play in versus other product types. So I think you're seeing a natural tightening with our portfolio Leaning heavier into multifamily space as well.

Speaker 8

And does the slowdown in overall development activity potentially reduce an area where you guys have had some success in the past?

Speaker 6

Sorry, repeat the question again.

Speaker 8

Just talking about development activity, volumes declining and it seems like that was an area where you guys had some after obviously replacing the capital stack as deals were completed. So is that an area where you're not seeing as much activity these days?

Speaker 6

Development pipelines are down across the country. It's hard to make those transactions work when there hasn't been enough volume on the sales side to see where people should transact. So again, as the transaction side in terms of investment sales picks up, Those transactions that could work are being picked up on the development side. You're seeing a trickle of those come back in high quality markets where People aren't seeing transactions like in the multifamily space, see trade at wide cap rates. They're still tight in a lot of good high quality markets.

Speaker 6

You're seeing People pick up their pens on the development deals there. So you're seeing some transactions. In terms of our pipeline, look, we're looking across the board from development to existing value add transactions, different product types. So, sure, we've done some development transactions in the past when we feel That's the right place to be and that's where there's again actionable transactions. So there's some development deals, but as you can see from our The deals we closed, it's a solid mix.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Harsh Hananani from Green Street. Your line is live.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Thinking through the pipeline on the pricing side, A lot of the deals in the Q4 were priced, I want to say, early in October. How good do you feel about achieving yields in the mid-7s going forward thinking through 2024?

Speaker 3

Hey, Harsh. Yes, look, we think anything in the high 6s, nominally speaking, is a very attractive yield. You just look back historically and that's where you'd like to play. I think we got a little bit of a benefit in the 4th quarter caught some timing just right, as I said. These deals take time to put together.

Speaker 3

So by the Between where you start and where you finish, there's a lot of moving parts. So I would always guide us right now to kind of what Tim said, T+65 over the 30 year with the bump structures and the inflation kickers is still a sweet spot. So high 4s feels good nominally and sort of relatively. I don't think sort of the mid-7s is a target range where rates are today.

Speaker 10

Okay, fair. Thanks for that. And then I noticed there was a small gain on sale of an asset, about $500,000 Was the ground lease asset sold this quarter? And then if so, could you provide the aggregate value of the sale, any sort of yield that you were able to receive on the sale and if there was any carrot implication associated with the sale?

Speaker 3

Yes, a small situation that started to take up more time than it was worth. So it wasn't really a strategic move. It was A dual ground lease with 2 separate assets. We just decided it was more complicated than it need to be and Let one of those go so we could focus on the more stable of the assets. So not a big deal in terms of dollars, but it was taken up too much time and made a small profit and just moved on from that one.

Speaker 3

Do you have any other color, Brad?

Speaker 4

Yes. As Dave said, this is a small ground lease from years ago. So again, the size of the trade was pretty immaterial, I would say.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Rich Anderson with Wedbush. Your line is live.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning. On the topic of G and A, maybe you can and I know you had to tough decisions in the Q4 and you're trending lower than you had originally expected. What is the cadence of G and A? If you could remind us, for this year, I believe the fees from Star Holdings come down.

Speaker 11

Is it in April from 25% to 15%, I might have that wrong. But if you could give sort of like the sort of the quarter by quarter, sort of movement of G and A in 2024 as you see it now?

Speaker 4

Hey, Rich, it's Brett. So You're right. G and A has come down from last year to what we expect to occur this coming year. I think the quarter to quarter fluctuations are will be a result of what you mentioned, which is the Star Holdings management fee that we received. So we received that after internalization from Q2 last year through Q1 of 2024 and then it will continue to step down.

Speaker 4

The year 1 through year 4 of $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 is somewhat different For GAAP accrual, it's based on timesheets and spent and time spent. So That amount could fluctuate quarter to quarter, but also concurrently as part of the internalization, the LTIP will also be coming down. So it's somewhat of an offset. So quarter to quarter over the course of the year, it should continue to decline. We should see some of the efficiencies gained in the 4th quarter from that reduced headcount flow through in Q1 and thereafter.

Speaker 4

But as I said in my remarks, it certainly feels like the opportunity to take 2024's G and A down another 5% from this past year is an achievable target for the year.

Speaker 11

But the 5% down isn't relative to 2023 because you didn't the net number Is there a lower fee component? Or are you saying the LTIP more than offsets that, so that ultimately Is down 5% from 2023?

Speaker 4

It actually less than offsets it, right, because the Star Holdings management fee comes down at a faster clip than that LTIP accrual. So we're actually picking up and benefiting even more from the reductions because the LTIP is slower than the management fee decline.

Speaker 11

All right. Okay. Thanks. In terms of the carrot, What happens with Marcos' Carrot ownership? And how does that change?

Speaker 11

I know you said Safe sold 82%, but Will that number change slightly with his departure?

Speaker 3

Yes. Just Mark was forfeited by contract, approximately a quarter of his units. So those go back to the company. So the 82% that say fold downs will go up by the units coming back into the pot. Our long term goal, Rich, is obviously to target long term investors and put those in hands that can demonstrate the value.

Speaker 3

I think SAFE's goal here really is to get that value realized and so they have a little bit more flexibility now just in terms of those units coming back.

Speaker 11

Understood. So does the 82 go to it's just a nominal increase or is it Can you share what that change of

Speaker 3

Call it a percent. Call it a percent.

Speaker 11

Fair enough. Okay, great. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Kelly Kounath with Morgan Stanley. Your line is

Speaker 12

Thank you. I just wanted to dig back into the G and A quickly. Is all of that 5% structural and ongoing savings? Or is there a portion of that, that needs to turn back on as origination volumes start to ramp back up?

Speaker 3

Yes. As I said in my remarks, we will definitely want to add some talent as we grow. We think this opportunity is going to be very, very large, but we feel great about the team as it is today. So we've got the resources we need, but I wouldn't tell you this is a static number.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Kenneth Lee with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker 13

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just one around capital in leverage. Wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about how you expect leverage to trend over the near term? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Hey, Ken. So from a leverage standpoint, we've always said that 2 times debt to equity on our ground lease position is how we want to be able to fund this business 2 thirds debt, 1 third equity. Right now, we're creeping closer to that 2 times. We've always said there may be moments here and there where That could creep a touch above 2 times. When you think about our capital position both on existing commitments as well as having the joint venture On new deals that we do, ones that will go through that joint venture, we fund 55% of those dollars.

Speaker 4

So when you start thinking about the available Capital we have in addition to the pipeline that Tim and Jabil spoke about, we still feel like that's the appropriate leverage target. I it's also an important one that we're always monitoring when we think about ratings actions. As I mentioned in my remarks, Fitch recently affirmed our positive outlook. They'd like to see us continue to maintain leverage around that 2 times level. So we're cognizant of that, but we certainly have enough capital tools in the toolkit to be able to continue to deploy capital here over the coming quarters.

Speaker 4

So we'll monitor accordingly and think about how and when to term out some of those borrowings on the revolver.

Speaker 13

Great. That's all I had. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Matt Howlett with B. Riley. Your line is live.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. With the rally in your bond, Did I maybe you talked about it, but are you looking at a 30 year public or private? On the term deal, what are you kind of looking at given the recent rally?

Speaker 4

Yes. The start of the year here has been much more constructive than where we were a few months ago. It feels like the options that we have today are exactly what you point to, which is it could be somewhere between 10 to 30 years. We could execute in the public markets, the private markets. You've seen us do everything from flat fixed rate debt to our stepped coupons.

Speaker 4

So we're continuing to monitor those options and certainly we'll look at the appropriate time to term out some of those borrowings. As I mentioned earlier too, we are hedged. We think that's a significant savings from what the headline cost will be when you start to factor in those mark to market gains and we unwind those hedges. So To your point, we're going to actively look to those markets and see what the best execution is for both the short, medium and long term.

Speaker 9

And that was my question. To recognize that cash, it's over $50,000,000 that would be is that going to be timed around the bond deal or when the Fed starts cutting? Just It's significant just that cash coming in. Can you give us any more color on when that may be?

Speaker 4

Yes. It's hung up right now as mark to market on our balance sheet. And when we execute long term debt, we would look to unwind the hedges At the same time simultaneously, just to give you an example, if we lock in 10 year or 30 year debt At a specific coupon and we unwind those hedges, today that could be 75 to 100 basis point savings versus the headline cost. That's material, right? That's significant for our business, both from a cash flow standpoint.

Speaker 4

We could use that cash to pay down the revolver from the headline cost versus the effective cost we're paying. And then also we get to take those gains and amortize them over the life of the debt, which helps earnings going forward as well.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. And then just one follow-up bigger picture question. We got a lot of Off balance sheet items that aren't the GAAP doesn't recognize, I mean, obviously, the carat, the fair market value leases. I mean, what I mean, Going is there anything you can do big picture strategically?

Speaker 9

Do you have any I mean of the purchase ground leases, do you have anything coming due like the next 10 years you could kind of demonstrate to the market The value underneath it, selling some of these ground leases that Gap doesn't give you full credit for. Just strategically, how can you get the market, maybe as Jay, a bigger picture to recognize the off balance sheet value, the non GAAP value in the company today? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, it's a great question. We're always looking to chip away at sort of What we think is a little bit of a misperception or misunderstanding of the value in the balance sheet that the biggest catalyst Obviously, it's Carrot in our minds. It's a multibillion dollar asset that doesn't show up on our balance sheet. We think the best way to demonstrate that is to have Smart third party capital validate its intrinsic worth. But there's also a lot of little things like you point out some assets that we think from a GAAP accounting probably don't show as well As we feel like economically, they really are.

Speaker 3

Hate to sell stuff just to make A point, but sometimes that is the right decision. So we'll look at a couple of things where we think that opportunity to really unlock value is worth it and there's a fair economic deal to do. I think you're right. Every one of those just helps to tell the story a little bit better. And clearly, we need to sharpen the story on some of those assets.

Speaker 3

I think Brett's done a great job sort of putting out every quarter what we think the real underlying economic values are and yields are, but obviously doing something in the real world is always helpful.

Speaker 9

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Hoffman, we have no further questions at this time.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. If you should have more questions, please feel free to reach out to me directly. Ale, could you please give me replay instructions once more?

Speaker 1

4814010

Operator

with the confirmation code of 4,98,138.

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Earnings Conference Call
Safehold Q4 2023
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