10x Genomics Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 15, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Jeannie, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome you to the 10x Genomics 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Thank you.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Cassie Cornell. You may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Earlier today, 10X Genomics released financial results for the Q4 and full year ended December 31, 2023. If you have not received this news release if you would like to be added to the company's distribution list, please send an e mail to investors10xgenomics.com. An archived webcast of this call will be available on the Investor tab of the company's website, 10xgenomics.com, for at least 45 days following this call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that management will make statements during this call that are forward looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws.

Speaker 1

These statements involve material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to materially differ from those anticipated, and you should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties and factors that could cause results to differ appears in the press release 10x Genomics issued today and in the documents and reports filed by 10x Genomics from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 10x Genomics disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any financial projections or forward looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. Joining the call today are Serge Saxonov, our CEO and Co Founder and Justin McNeer, our Chief Financial Officer. We will host a question and answer session after our prepared remarks.

Speaker 1

Last week, we were a silver sponsor of the 2024 Advances in Genome, Biology and Technology General Meeting, known as AGBT. During our workshop, Our team presented exciting science and details of our upcoming product launches. While Serge will highlight some of these today, We encourage you to check out the presentation replay on our website if you didn't see the news or if you would like more information. With that, I will now turn the call over to Serge.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Kathy, and good afternoon, everyone. During today's call, I'll start with a brief overview of our progress 2023 and why we have a great setup as we kick off the year. Next, I will highlight the strength of our innovation engine and our key priorities and focus areas in 2024. Then Justin will provide a more detailed look at our financial results, business trends and revenue guidance for the year. 2023 was another strong year for 10x Genomics With total revenue growing 20% to $619,000,000 as previously announced, We catalyze the field of single cell analysis.

Speaker 2

And in 2023, we came into our own in spatial biology as well, with spatial revenue exceeding $135,000,000 for the year. The big driver for this and the big story of 2023 was the launch of Xenium. It was an extraordinary launch year for the Xenium platform. We've driven remarkable adoption selling more than 2 50 instruments in the 1st year of launch. Even more importantly, customers have been incredibly enthusiastic about the platform as they rapidly move from install to insight from instrument delivery of powerful discoveries.

Speaker 2

To date, There have been more than 20 published papers, all preprints using Xenium. Among them are multiple independent benchmarking studies that validates Xenium as the best performing system for in situ analysis. These rigorous studies compared customer generated data from their own instruments in their own labs. The results demonstrate Xinyum delivers the best sensitivity, the best specificity, the best throughput and the best biological insights. Of course, none of it was accidental.

Speaker 2

We carefully engineered Xenium to be a premium instrument that delivers premium performance with an extremely easy to use workflow. We leveraged our operations and manufacturing scale to ramp capacity faster than anticipated. And we relied on the dedication and drive of our commercial team to ensure our customer success every step of the way. Xenia's exceptional launch year reinforces our belief in an enormous long term potential for the platform, which we believe will usher in a new era of genomic analysis. Xeam is just one of several accomplishments in 2023, validating our strategy to drive growth through innovation and reinforcing we're well positioned for long term success.

Speaker 2

In 2023, we reached nearly 6,000 cumulative instruments sold around the world, a 29% increase year over year. We also opened our new R and D manufacturing hub in Pleasanton to support new product development and production, including for Busium HD and Xenium. This cutting edge facility adds operational scale and capacity to enable multiples of growth. In addition, we achieved our goal of positive free cash flow in Q4 and excluding acquisitions delivered positive operating cash flow for the year, reflecting our commitment to maintaining cash discipline as we scale. Lastly, it was especially rewarding to see a massive increase in publications, which were up 58% year over year.

Speaker 2

We have now surpassed 7,000 peer reviewed papers citing 10x technologies. Seeing how our customers use our tools to push science forward is a huge source of inspiration, motivation and pride for our mission driven team. This is what 10x is all about. Before I discuss the very exciting developments leading into 2024, want to emphasize the key principles that anchor our approach. First, our fundamental thesis is unchanged.

Speaker 2

Biology needs to be understood and analyzed at single cell level with spatial context. Following this principle, we believe there are large opportunities ahead and our commitment to ongoing product innovation will allow us to capture those opportunities. 2nd, We have always built a company for scale and we will continue to do so. We have made significant investments over the past several years, building out a world class operations facility and scaling our research and development and commercial teams. At this point, We have additional capacities and as we grow our revenue, we expect to realize operating leverage as we drive toward profitability, while we continue to deliver breakthrough innovations.

Speaker 2

And 3rd, we're committed to maintaining cash discipline and driving a strong financial profile. We have already made investments to operate at scale. We have also put in place rigorous operational and cultural frameworks to prioritize incremental spending on highly targeted areas necessary to drive growth. It's been a busy and exciting start to the year. We kicked off 2024 with the launches of 2 catalytic new products, which demonstrate the enduring strength and velocity of our innovation engine and its impact and value for customers around the world.

Speaker 2

This year, we're planning to introduce franchise defining new products and capabilities that will extend our technology leadership, raised the bar for researchers and continue to set the standard for high performance single cell and spatial tools. Let me highlight a few of the game changers we're expecting to launch this year, starting with Vizim HD. Visum HD is a prime example of how we listen to our customers and take on the hardest development challenges that will have the biggest impact on scientific research. It has been the most requested product in our history. Vizium HD increases the resolution of the Vizium platform by over 3 orders of magnitude.

Speaker 2

Its development has entailed monumental technological leaps. And what this means is that researchers will be able to extract large scale molecular information from their tissues at single cell scale resolution. Vizium HD will run on existing Cytosys instruments with the same robust and easy to use workflow as standard Visium. Ahead of launch, we have sold more than 500 CytoSys instruments to customer labs around the world. We expect more researchers will adopt CytoSys to gain access to HD and take advantage of Visium's expanding spatial capabilities.

Speaker 2

Since we opened Vizium HD preorders in January, we've been encouraged with the initial response and early demand from customers. This product has been a long time coming, but we're confident customers will soon see the Vizium HD was well worth debate. Our ambition is to establish VizimHD as the platform for translational discovery. If one has a cohort of samples With phenotype information that needs to be correlated with molecular information for biomarker discovery or for anything else, we believe there's no better tool in existence than Vizim HD. New technology for our Chromium franchise.

Speaker 2

The first major overhaul to our Chromium architecture since 2019, GEMx features a completely reengineered microfluidic chip design with optimized reagents to enable superior performance at larger scale and lower cost. Later this quarter, we plan to launch the first two products on GEMX, Our highest volume assays Chromium Single Cell Gene Expression V4 and Chromium Single Cell Immune Profiling V3. These products, which are exclusively available on the Chromium X Series instruments, deliver higher performance across the board give customers important performance advantages that will immediately benefit their single cell research. Let me highlight a few. First, we designed GEM X to be even more robust than previous generations of chromium products, delivering more consistent performance even with more challenging samples.

Speaker 2

GeMx was substantially increased sensitivity detecting up to 2 times more genes compared to on market Chromium assays. The new architecture greatly improves capture efficiency recovering up to 80% of cells. GeMx is also built to scale, enabling a 2 fold increase in cells captured per channel with improved assay robustness faster and more efficient cell partitioning. And finally, and this is quite important, even with all of these performance advantages, The Gen X assays are also more cost effective than ever before, reducing per reaction costs and delivering a more than 2 fold reduction In cost per cell, we believe there is significant price elasticity in single cell research, particularly as more researchers are exposed to these methods and existing users move towards larger and larger experiments. In fact, we're seeing more customers use flex multiplexing to scale their experiments as chromium reaction growth outpaced revenue growth in 2023.

Speaker 2

We want to lean into this elasticity and make single cell analysis even more routine accessible. That's why our long term goal is to deliver high performance single cell research for $100 per sample. GEMx is one of multiple planned steps in this direction to drive prices lower to support researchers and expand opportunity for single cell analysis. We have a robust GeoMx roadmap ahead including a comprehensive menu of high performance assays and applications designed to deliver superior economics and drive broad adoption at large scale. In addition to GEMX, we announced a number of new capabilities on the Chromium platform In response to our customers' most frequent requests, we're adding more workflow flexibility, including protocols for both upstream fixation and whole blood processing.

Speaker 2

And we're opening up new applications of ChromiumPlex, including CRISPR screening and intracellular protein profiling. The investments we're making in the Chromium franchise to raise the bar and set a new standard for single cell analysis underscore our confidence in growth opportunity ahead. We believe the momentum of our new products along with the renewed commercial focus on Chromium will help invigorate the franchise and drive more robust performance in 2024 and beyond. While VizimHD and GEMAX have been the big news to start the year, we're also executing on an extensive multi year product roadmap for Xenium, including multimodal cell segmentation, a new add on kit compatible with existing Xenium assays to improve the determination of cell boundaries, which is expected to launch this quarter. We're planning to launch our 5,000 plex Gene Panel mid year, scaling up Plex by an order of magnitude while delivering the really high quality sensitivity, specificity and throughput customers have come to expect from Xenium.

Speaker 2

And later in the year, we expect to launch our integrated highplex Xenium protein profiling capability, enabling researchers to get a large scale RNA readout and up to 20 proteins on the exact same tissue section in a single run. These new products will continue to push the boundaries of science, yet this is only the beginning. What is really exciting about Xenium is the amount of technological headroom that this platform has ahead with tremendous runway for more applications, higher throughput and lower costs over the years. We can't wait to bring some of these capabilities to our customers. In each of our 3 platforms this year, we're introducing new franchise defining products, which will take our portfolio to the next level.

Speaker 2

We are confident that these are the right offerings to solidify our core platforms and drive growth for the long term. But we also recognize There may be near term headwinds while customers take time to trial and later transition to these new tools. This warrants some conservatism around the pace of new product adoption. Our commercial team is excited and engaged to help customers navigate these product launches deliver on the full promise of single cell and spatial biology. And while we're transitioning commercial leadership, I couldn't be more proud of how our team has stepped up and lean into the opportunity that comes with this change.

Speaker 2

We recently held our annual global commercial meeting and the team's energy and enthusiasm was profitable, Probably the highest I've ever seen at 10x. It's clear our team is ready to deliver on our priorities and evolve the organization for greater scale and impact. They understand we have work to do to get there and they're fully rallied around our vision of creating a premier commercial organization that delivers superior execution and superior results. With incredible new products in every franchise, The commercial team is primed to bring more balanced attention and focus across our portfolio as we continue to drive our mission and obsess over customer success. And part of our commitment to customer success is to ensure as many researchers as possible are aware of and have access to our leading portfolio of single cell and spatial tools.

Speaker 2

Our goal is to drive broader adoption by reducing prices and making our technologies more accessible. We strongly believe in elasticity of demand for our products. And that means driving down costs along multiple vectors, lower cost per cell, per tissue, per sample, per experiment, per project. GMX is one step in this direction with more to come across all of our platforms as part of our long term product roadmap. Let me wrap up by summarizing our priorities for 2024.

Speaker 2

1st, we're laser focused on ensuring the success of these new product launches. We believe we have set that bar high for their performance and capabilities and we want to make sure all researchers are aware and understand the potential of these. 2nd, we plan to drive Chromium to higher rates of growth. We believe single cell analysis is nowhere near fully penetrated there are significant opportunities ahead, which our new products will help us capture. And finally, as I mentioned, we intend to maintain a strong focus on cash discipline.

Speaker 2

And before I turn it over to Justin, I'd like to say that while we're excited about our new innovations and what's in front of us In 2024, there are considerations related to year over year comparisons and product introductions that will affect this year's financial growth as Justin will address in his section. We're focused on delivering in 2024 and are steadfast in maintaining a long term orientation that has served us well since the earliest days of the company. The scope of ambitions requires us to take the long view. That's how we make decisions. That's how we innovate.

Speaker 2

That's how we think about value creation. And with that, let me turn it over to Justin.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Serge. I'll start by reviewing our financial results for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023. Then I'll review our financial results for the full year 2023, And I'll finish by discussing our outlook for 2024. Total revenue for the quarter grew 18% year over year to $184,000,000 with no change from our previously announced preliminary results. Total consumables revenue was $140,300,000 an increase of 7% over the prior year period.

Speaker 3

Chromium consumables revenue was $118,100,000 down 2% year over year and spatial consumables revenue was $22,200,000 up 95% year over year. Total instrument revenue was $38,400,000 an increase of 72% over the prior year period. Chromium instrument revenue was $11,100,000 down 27% year over year. Spatial instrument revenue was $27,200,000 compared to $7,100,000 in the Q4 of 2022. Services revenue was $5,300,000 which increased 129% over the prior year period.

Speaker 3

Looking at our revenue by geography, Americas revenue was $103,800,000 growing 21% over the prior year period. EMEA revenue was $50,600,000 growing 18% over the prior year period. And revenue in APAC was $29,500,000 a 7% increase year over year. Turning to the rest of the income statement. Gross profit for the Q4 of 2023 was $115,800,000 compared to a gross profit of $119,400,000 for the prior year period.

Speaker 3

Gross margin for the Q4 was 63% compared to 76% for the Q4 of 2022. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to a higher mix of CEM instruments sold. Total operating expenses for the Q4 of 2023 $171,000,000 compared to $142,500,000 for the Q4 last year. The increase was primarily driven by $19,600,000 of non recurring in process research and development expense related to a technology acquisition. R and D expenses were $65,300,000 compared to $63,600,000 for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The increase was primarily driven by higher personnel expenses and higher cost to support operational expansion. SG and A expenses were $86,100,000 compared to $78,900,000 for the Q4 of 2022, primarily driven by increased outside legal expenses, including success fees. Operating loss for the Q4 of 2023 was $55,200,000 compared to a loss of $23,100,000 for the Q4 of 2022. This includes $38,900,000 of stock based compensation compared to $41,000,000 of stock based compensation for the corresponding prior year period. Net loss for the period was $49,000,000 compared to a net loss of $17,200,000 for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The increase in net loss includes and is primarily driven by $19,600,000 in non recurring expense related to a technology acquisition. I'll speak now to our full year results. Total revenue for the full year ended December 31, 2023 was $618,700,000 representing a 20% increase over full year 2022. Total consumables revenue for the year was $479,600,000 an increase of 10% over the prior year period. Chromium Consumables revenue was $420,300,000 up 5% year over year and spatial consumables revenue was $59,200,000 up 69% year over year.

Speaker 3

Total instrument revenue was $123,500,000 an increase of 71% over the prior year period. Chromium instrument revenue was $47,900,000 down 18% year over year. Spatial instrument revenue was $75,600,000 compared to $13,800,000 in 2022, which was driven by the incredibly strong traction we experienced with Xenium in its 1st full year. Services revenue was $15,700,000 an increase of 86% over the prior year. As of year end, we have sold a cumulative total of 5,966 instruments across all three platforms, comprising 5,180 Chromium instruments, 531 Visium instruments and 255 Xenium instruments.

Speaker 3

In 2023, we sold 13 36 total instruments, increasing 29% from the prior year. During 2023, our customers bought over 347,000 reactions worth of consumables products, up 9% from approximately 319,300 reactions in 2022. Broken out across our product platforms, customers bought approximately 312,500 Chromium reactions, up 7% year over year, 29,300 Visium reactions up 3% year over year and 5,200 Xenium reactions. As a reminder, a consumable reaction is the reagent setup needed to perform an experiment using one of our solutions. We believe it is an important metric because it represents the unit volumes we sell to our customers.

Speaker 3

Looking at our regional results for the full year 2023, Americas revenue was $373,200,000 growing 27% over the prior year period. EMEA revenue was $142,300,000 growing 22% over the prior year period And revenue in APAC was $103,300,000 a 2% decrease year over year. Gross profit for 2023 was $409,300,000 compared to a gross profit of $396,000,000 for 2022. Gross margin for 2023 was 66% compared to 77% for 2022. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to changes in product mix due to a higher number of XENIUM instruments sold.

Speaker 3

Total operating expenses for 2023 were $674,600,000 compared to $564,000,000 for 2022. The increase was primarily driven by $61,000,000 of in process research and development expense related to an agreement to acquire certain intangible and other assets earlier this year and higher personnel expenses, including stock based compensation expense. R and D expenses for 2023 were $270,300,000 compared to $265,700,000 2022. The increase was primarily attributable to increased personnel related costs and higher costs for Facilities and Information Technology. SG and A expenses for 2023 were $343,300,000 compared to $298,300,000 for the prior year.

Speaker 3

The increase was primarily driven by increased outside legal expenses, personnel related costs, including stock based compensation expenses and increased facilities and information technology costs. Operating loss for 2023 was $265,300,000 compared to a loss of $167,900,000 for 2022. Net loss for 2023 was $255,100,000 compared to a net loss of $166,000,000 for 2022. For 2023, operating loss and net loss both include $61,000,000 of non recurring expense related to the technology acquisition. We ended 2023 with $388,700,000 in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities.

Speaker 3

I'm proud to share that in Q4, we hit our goal of achieving free cash flow positive, meaning cash flows from operating activities exceeded capital expenditures. In Q4, we generated over $20,000,000 of free cash flow. For full year 2023, excluding acquisitions and net of restricted cash, we were cash breakeven. Net of restricted cash, our cash burn for 2023 was $41,300,000 and that included $41,300,000 cash payments related to the aforementioned technology acquisition. Our teamwork and diligence in controlling spend is paying off and we ended the year on strong financial footing.

Speaker 3

Turning to our outlook for 2024, we expect full year revenue to be in the range of $670,000,000 to $690,000,000 representing growth of 8% to 12% over full year 2023. With this outlook, there are a few key factors to consider. First is the impact of our new products, which we announced at the JPMorgan Conference earlier this year and at AGBT last week. Our new Chromium, GEMX technology and our Visium HD product are exciting innovations. That said, And generally expected for major product updates like these, we are anticipating some temporary headwinds while customers evaluate, test and train as part of the transition to these new products.

Speaker 3

Both of these transitions are expected to start this quarter we do not expect to see as large a customer stock up on either the legacy or newly introduced products at quarter end. Thus, the biggest impact should be in Q1. 2nd, with respect to Xenium, Q3 and Q4 of last year, We saw a large number of placements with nearly 180 placements over those two quarters. As a reminder, we took a price increase at the start of Q4. We believe that combined with the year end CapEx budget dynamics likely pulled forward about a quarter to a quarter and a quarter and a half of demand into 2023.

Speaker 3

And as a result, we expect to see a more pronounced step down in placements to start the year. Finally, and as I have explained before, Our guidance philosophy is to anchor on the midpoint of the range with balanced upsides and downsides. The midpoint of our guidance range incorporates the above factors and we'll need to see how these transitions play out over the next couple of quarters. For the rest of the year, we believe we have a number of potential upsides. First is the upside of balancing our commercial efforts across all three platforms with increased focus on driving Chromium growth.

Speaker 3

2nd is the upside in XENIUM instrument placements. While the sales cycle is longer than our other products, we have a large funnel of opportunities. 3rd is the upside related to VIZIOM HD, where there is potential for quicker adoption overall and the benefit of driving increased site assist placements. When looking out over the next 12 months, we are anticipating about $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 of total capital expenditures, down from almost $50,000,000 in 2023 $132,000,000 in 2022. As Serge mentioned earlier, we have now made many of the significant capital expenditures for this stage of growth.

Speaker 3

As I mentioned earlier, we hit our goal of achieving free cash flow positive in Q4. Given the seasonality of our business and a milestone payment related to Visium that was accrued in December and paid in January, we do not expect to achieve the same in Q1, but we will maintain discipline in 2024. Overall, we believe we have a great setup to drive positive cash flow for the year, while making targeted investments to continue driving growth. Our goal is to self fund our innovation and scale by investing cash generated back into our business. At this point, I'll turn it back to Serge.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Justin. We often talk about the enormous complexity of biology. This complexity is what makes it so challenging to understand biology and to advance human health. But the extent of the challenge also means that there are vast opportunities ahead of us. As our core, 10x is fundamentally about growth and impact.

Speaker 2

Our innovation engine has consistently delivered transformational technologies have enabled our customers to expand the frontiers of science and have a profound impact on society. In fact, A customer recently told us that our technologies aren't just unraveling biology. They are unearthing opportunities to create hope. We see this as a powerful responsibility and a guiding force for our team who work tirelessly every day to support science and scientists around the world. I am so grateful for our team's drive and determination as we remain bold, ambitious and disciplined in pursuit of our mission.

Speaker 2

With that, we will now open it up for questions. Operator?

Operator

And your first question comes from the line of Dan Brennan with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks guys. Congrats On the quarter, maybe just to level set the guide, could you give some more color on the components, namely single cell and spatial, If you want to give color on instruments and consumables, that'd be helpful as well. And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 3

Hey, Dan. Thanks for the question. As far as the guide goes, we're guiding to total revenue and we're not planning on breaking that out by product line. But I can give you some color as far as how we're thinking about instruments for the various platforms. For Chromium, We're built into the midpoint of our guidance range is chromium instruments being roughly flat year over year, but with higher weighting towards the IX, so a slight decline in revenue.

Speaker 3

For VIZIOM, we're expecting instruments to be slightly down year over year. And that's due to what we've done over the past year about messaging that The future of Visium is on the side assist with all the customers getting ready for HD. And on Xenium, Even though we have a healthy funnel, we talked about in the prepared remarks the pull forward of orders that we saw in Q3 and Q4. And I do expect the biggest impact of that will be in Q1 with some impact in Q2, but then ramping gradually from there. In the prepared remarks, we did I did talk about how we expected maybe a quarter to a quarter and a half of demand was pulled forward into Q3 and Q4.

Speaker 3

And so if you do the math on that, it would imply roughly an ongoing demand assumed at the midpoint of our guidance range of about 50 to 75 instruments per quarter. So we expect to start off the beginning of the year at the lower end of that range and then ramp to the high end in Q4.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you. And I know you're not going to give you gave some of the color on the single cell instruments. But just more broadly, given the way the year ended, I mean, that there's a lot of excitement obviously on spatial, but getting some visibility on how you're thinking about single cell would be really helpful more broadly. So just You guys grow 2% in 2023, even though instruments are light, like should you grow I assume you should grow faster this year.

Speaker 4

Could you just give any color about some of the initiatives to accelerate growth in single cell?

Speaker 3

Yes, Dan, I'll take the first part of that question and then we can turn up the search for more color. But as far as the guide goes, For Chromium, keep in mind that we're assuming this transition to Genex that has a 10% price decrease. And then also the impacts that I've talked about with the product transitions, particularly around the end of Q1, with how customers are transitioning from the legacy product to the new product. I gave you the color on instruments. But overall, even with the 10% price decrease on GEMEX, We are still assuming growth for chromium at the midpoint of our range overall.

Speaker 2

Yes, Jan. And I do to emphasize what we talked about in the prepared remarks and the message we've been putting out there for a number of years now, we have Strong conviction that ultimately every tissue sample will need to be analyzed with single cell context. Obviously, we're very far from that right now. So we have strong conviction that there is a long running opportunity in front of us of robust growth. And a big part of it is making our products easier to use, improving workflow, adding features, making the analysis easier, but also lowering the price to drive into the industrial demand to reach broader and broader markets.

Speaker 2

And this year, in particular, with introductions of new products, what we've been doing previously with Flex, we expect to really lean into this elasticity and drive broader adoption, which will set us up well for this year, but also importantly beyond as well.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Arias with Stifel. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

And guys, thanks for the questions. Justin on Xenium, the consumables contribution looked like it stepped nicely this quarter. What were the drivers there? I assume some of that was maybe related to stocking orders, but You also placed 80 systems last quarter and we didn't see any of the same type of move. So it seems like that's at least partly due to the way the usage is ramping, but we'd just love to hear your

Speaker 3

Hi, Dan. Thanks for the question. Really it's due to both. You've got the compounding effect quarter over quarter of that have been placed earlier in the year that are now getting to doing their reorder. But when you have a quarter like Q3 followed by a quarter like Q4, Between those two quarters was nearly 180 Xenium instruments sold in total.

Speaker 3

And so the bulk of that is coming from the stocking orders of orders that are going out with an instrument placement. But then Q4 is having some compounding effects from the previous quarters, where they're getting to the reorder point. Okay.

Speaker 5

And then maybe just on chromium consumables, when you look at the performance in the quarter the sequential step down in growth, as you've dug into that a little bit, I'm just curious if you have a sense for, is that Has that been due more to shorter term purchasing behavior around things like pricing changes and budgets versus something more structural? And then maybe relatedly, you threw this 7% gross number out for reactions. What should we do with that? I mean, how do we think about next year in context of reactions because it is a little bit of an abstract idea, especially when we're thinking about these new products that you have?

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me take on that question around sort of the quarter and the chromium consumables in the quarter. So there's sort of 2 main things that we saw happen on the Chromium side in Q4. 1 is sort of around seasonality, which incorporates budget pressures,

Operator

sort of

Speaker 2

budget flush dynamics and differences in price increases From year to year, last year or this year, our price increase on chromium is actually the smallest it has been in a number of years substantially smaller than was the year before. So there wasn't nearly as much of an incentive for people to kind of stock up on chromium reagents in Q4. The other big thing is like we talked about before, just generally commercial focus and execution. Our team Throughout last year, it was very much focused on spatial, especially on Xenium. And in terms of building out the funnels and in terms of customers where they're spending their time very much was there and somewhat to the expense of program.

Speaker 2

To a smaller extent, there also has been an increase in competitive offerings out there. More companies kind of going to our customers and offering sharply discounted products or products for free. And it's largely been a similar dynamic to what we have talked about before, where certainly our customers are always looking to try new technologies. And these trials do add some amount of friction to the sales process. And But by and large, customers have been coming back to us because our product due to the superiority of the products, much better data quality, much better workflow, much greater breadth of applications, much greater support, customer support, commercial support And that is really our goal.

Speaker 2

And as I mentioned earlier, is to keep investing in innovation, keep on driving forward to make sure that our customers are always seeing us as by far the most compelling choice for single cell analysis.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Schenkel with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good afternoon guys. First a question on the early part of this year and then I want to follow-up with a bigger picture question. So, in terms of what you're seeing in terms of customer behavior, customer response since the launch of GEMX And Visium HD, I know Genex is I think that may have only been last week. But I'm just wondering, are you seeing anything to suggest that These announcements are going to open up new accounts. Are they opening up different customer groups?

Speaker 6

Anything you could share in the early going would be, I think of interest to all of us.

Speaker 2

I think, Doug, it's too early to comment on It is right. Like the year started with like really exciting launches. We announced the preorders for Visium HD. And just last week, we announced to the world for the first time, the coming of Gen X. These products will first Very naturally, getting traction with our existing customer base.

Speaker 2

And we're certainly seeing that, both in terms of the reaction because those are the people that are we want to be most aware of them and both in terms of where our sales where our commercial team will naturally turn attention to. The reaction has been great. As I've talked about, BusyMFG is a huge advance over what came before. And Genex has a number of advances that are precisely along the lines what customers have been looking for, greater sensitivity, greater recovery efficiency, throughput cost and greater robustness. I would say that by virtue these advances as well.

Speaker 2

We do expect that ultimately more customers will enter the ecosystem because these products are more amenable to more sample types, to getting more information content customer samples, but it's way too early to talk to that now based on sort of empirical data and the initial customer reactions.

Speaker 6

Okay. That makes sense, Serge. So the bigger picture question, and then maybe I'm being unfair because I may be asking you to do our job for us a little bit here. But the stock closed at, I think, 8 to 9 times the midpoint of revenue guidance. In the current environment, that's pretty robust.

Speaker 6

10% growth year over year at the top line is solid, but Arguably, it's not a slam dunk to support the valuation or certainly upside from current levels. So if we kind of think back over the years and just normalize boom and bust cycles. You've always garnered a premium multiple based on your growth profile and related to that, your ability to keep opening up New markets, new opportunities based on your innovation. For those that might be waiving a bit, what can you share on guidance philosophy entering this year and also on the product pipeline, single cell spatial and I think importantly beyond that can help folks not waver and believe that Yes. The 10x of the future is still very much like the 10x of the past.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So let me start here and maybe Justin can touch a So fundamentally, as I said, as we've been saying, we do believe that ultimately all samples, Anything that starts with cells, anything that starts with tissues needs to be analyzed with single cell contacts with spatial resolution. And we have built the products, the platforms to enable that vision, to enable that future. Our Product Development Innovation Engine has been has demonstrated we've shown the ability to launch new platforms and new products. And in fact, I think sitting here right now, I can say with full confidence is as strong or stronger than it has ever been.

Speaker 2

And we have announced a number of products Just this last month, there's way more in the pipeline. There's a lot more capabilities, a lot more products that are coming. And that is to drive towards that long term vision. And we feel like the market the runway for the market is really, really long and really robust and we have every opportunity to take full advantage of these big opportunities in front of us. So I would say To the same extent that we have created these markets before through fundamental technology innovation, that story is still very much In plain fact, we feel strongly more strongly about it than ever in our past.

Speaker 3

And Doug, as far as our Guidance philosophy. What I'll say is that we call out what we're seeing today and we don't want to get too aggressive around things that we're not seeing yet. So in this case, we're anchored at the midpoint of our range. We've got a balanced view of upsides and downsides. But then we've also called out upsides that I spoke to earlier in the prepared remarks.

Speaker 3

And so those were the first was the results of balancing our commercial efforts across all three platforms with increased focus on driving Chromium growth. So that results The result of doing that is not built in. I would consider that an upside. And then the second one was the upside in Xenium instrument placements as we get through the 1st couple of quarters. And the third is the upside on Museum HD and then quicker adoption with the potential for that driving more sinus displacements yet or more sinus displacements in addition, but That's not built in yet.

Speaker 3

And so as the year progresses and we see how we've progressed towards these upsides, we'll update as appropriate if appropriate.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle Mixon with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, guys. Thanks for the questions. Just going back to The product transition dynamics to Vizium HD into Genex, could you just walk through that in more detail? Like is that just a like a tough switch or are customers going to Could it be hesitant to kind of stick with you guys and kind of evaluate other options in single cell or spatial profiling? And is there any risk that could kind of impact the Is there any contraction or momentum or those businesses just totally not they're just independent at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. So let me respond a little bit on this. So for both the BusyMD and GEMX, I think these are very natural upgrades and transitions for our customers. With HD, I want to emphasize that the workflow is very similar to what we have now established with SD and that workflow has is a much improved version relative to what we started years ago and it's something that has resonated with our customers. It runs on the same site assist instrument that our customers have.

Speaker 2

So we see it as a very natural progression for our customers. That said, there's always some amount of of friction in for turning all and deciding when to finish your projects, your existing projects on standard on the current products and when and which ones to pick up on BusyM HD. We also expect people to Before kind of jumping in at large scale with the imaging HD to order some reagents in smaller quantities to test it out to benchmark it. So we fully expect the customers will stay fully within the 10x ecosystem, but it will take some other time to kind of turn over and transition and decide when and when to transition on to the HT. Similar dynamic on the GemAd side.

Speaker 2

Again, it runs on existing Chromium IX series instruments. The workflow is similar to what they would be doing with the current assets, just better. The data similar, just better. Everything is just sort of better. So we do expect them to naturally transition to the Gen X architecture.

Speaker 2

But again, there's going to be the same amount of friction where people will first order these reagents to test them, to benchmark them for deciding which studies to transition when onto the new article.

Speaker 7

Okay. That was great Serge. Thanks.

Speaker 3

And just to add to that, the impact on revenue throughout the year, we do think the biggest Impact with the transition is going to be in Q1. I mean, these transitions are going to be executed throughout the year. But as far as seasonality goes, When you look at what we would expect Q1 to be in relation to the midpoint of our guidance range, I would expect somewhere in between 20% to 22% of the annual revenue would be in Q1 as a result of these transitions.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's interesting. Thanks, Justin. Thanks, Serge, a lot for that. Great answer.

Speaker 7

Going back to single cell EOSSD of demand. When NextGen was introduced in 2019, I think that was due to the IP litigation stuff. I'm not sure if that price reduction, if there was a price reduction associated with that, but chromium consumables have grown 20% CAGR since then, possibly catalyzed by that next gen release. Do you think that the Gen X introduction and the price decrease here could similarly kind of like reaccelerate chromium consumables because that's grown like single digits for the past 2 years?

Speaker 2

Yes. So that's something that actually Lower the price back when we launched it. As far as GEMEX price reductions are concerned, we do fully expect that over time it will lead to High demand, more reactions and ultimately more revenue for sure. We have Some evidence of that dynamic based on the progression of customer accounts with flex assays where as customers transition to higher levels of plexing, which entails results in lower price per sample, the total number of the actions and total revenue in those accounts goes up as more incremental projects get added.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Donnelly with Citi. Your line is

Speaker 3

open. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Justin, probably the first one for you, just in terms of some of these moving pieces, Both 1Q and the year, can you just talk about the margin progression? Obviously, those have been pressured quite a bit from The Zenium and maybe some of the consumable piece, the ramp coming soon and the consumables piece will obviously bring the margins up.

Speaker 3

But can you just Help us think about how that's going to progress this year on the gross margin piece and then any color on the expenses would be helpful as well. Yes, sure. First, let me talk about our philosophy for gross margin overall. We realized that that's a key strength of ours. We're committed to driving high gross margins long term and we believe that we have the ability over the long term to get back to higher gross margins.

Speaker 3

But we have been investing in the Xenium platform since launch. We've talked about the mix of But basically the strength of the xenium instrument placements being by far the largest driver on the change in margin as of late. We do think that as the xenium consumable streams ramp up, that will help to offset the margin of the instrument. And over time, this platform will have a margin overall that's comparable to our other product lines. The consumables themselves have gross margins that are similar to the other consumables that we sell.

Speaker 3

For Gen X, We do have a slightly higher cost for Gen X, but that is more of a transitory thing that will more impact Q2 and Q3, and that's given how our licenses are structured. There's going to be a very minimal impact beyond Q3. And so the gross margin may fluctuate in the 1st 3 quarters of 2024 just based upon The mix of Xenium Instruments and the mix of GEMEX. But like I said, beginning in Q4, those The royalty payments will normalize, and we would expect a very minimal impact after that. And I guess the other one to mention was just Visium HD, just coming up the manufacturing ramp of that with any new product.

Speaker 3

You start off with yields probably a little bit less than where you expect them to be longer term. And so we do expect Some impact on Vizium HD just due to the yields, but over time as we improve those, we expect to see the improvement as well. Okay. That's helpful. And Serge, there's obviously been a bunch of questions about single cell and kind of catalyzing it back to growth.

Speaker 3

Can you just talk about what you're doing internally? I know we chatted a little bit About about AGBT, but just in terms of incentivizing the sales force, I think you guys went all in on spatial and Xenium last year. How far do you swing the pendulum back to single cell this year? Maybe just talk about some of the strategy and how you think that could impact single cell? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, very good question. Yes, we did, as we've talked about before, last year in 2023, much of the company's focus was on spatial and especially on Xenium. We put extra incentives on the commercial team to put Xenium on the right trajectory and obviously it has borne fruit and has worked well. As we enter this We have been telling the team to bring a more balanced perspective, a more balanced allocation of attention across the portfolio. As we go into this year, we now have as part of our quarter, there is a number on Chromium is part of their incentive structure.

Speaker 2

We're watching this very carefully. It's a good question to see to make sure that there is appropriate balance. We do have now some other specialization on the team to drive to continue to drive spatial to drive Xenial, which is giving more room for our overall commercial team to be able to drive Chromium, which has a much as a franchise has a much wider footprint. And so we feel like we're putting the right measures of the right incentives in place, That's something that we are absolutely watching and we will be as we progress really here.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sabu Nambi with Guggenheim. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. For single cell, which application is most frequently used by customers, between, let's say, RNA expression, ATAC seed? The reason I ask is, I was wondering what percent customers will naturally upgrade to GEMEX until Flex is available in this architecture? And then I have one follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes. So, Prashanth, the largest applications that we have, Other ones that we've been able to on Gen X, which is 3 prime gene expression or 5 prime, which comprises includes immune profiling. Those are the biggest applications. They also represent more than 50% of the volume for Chromium.

Speaker 8

And what would Flex be, roughly 20% to 30% or More than that?

Speaker 2

So, we haven't talked about the precise percentages around the different applications around Flex. This point is a material fraction of the overall chromium portfolio, Larger fraction in terms of reactions, somewhat smaller in terms of revenue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tijat Savant with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey guys, thanks for the time here. Justin, just a couple of quick cleanups for you on the guide. First, I mean, get your point around anchoring to the midpoint of the upside downside sort of color you provided, very helpful. But can you just put a finer point on the degree to which you're anticipating a budget flush in 2024? And then what are you assuming in the guide for China?

Speaker 9

Is it essentially sort of 4Q trends continuing for 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, hey, Jeff, maybe starting with the last part of your question. We did consider what we saw at the end of Q4, as we thought about the beginning of this year and that was contemplated in our guide. As far as the guide overall, the biggest drivers are what I highlighted before, Just around the product transitions and the Xenium pull forward. As far as the year end On the budget dynamics, really it's taken more of an average view of the seasonality that we've seen in the past.

Speaker 3

And rather than trying to assume something binary like budget flush or no budget flush.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Ryskin with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. I actually want to follow-up on China real quick, but I want to expand on that a little bit. It's been one of the major headwinds to growth Over the last couple of years, obviously, and as a percent of revenues, it's dropped significantly. I mean, in the Q4, you were down to like 6% of revenue is coming from China and that used to be essentially 20%.

Speaker 10

So thinking from that perspective, I mean, essentially not a headwind anymore as you go into 2024, whereas if you strip it out, growth the last couple of years would have been much, much higher. So We talked about things from a Gen X, Vizium, Xenia perspective. Can we talk about it from a geography perspective? Feels like for 'twenty four guide to be 10% of the midpoint, of the other geographies have to decelerate significantly. So could you just reconcile those two approaches to think about the guide?

Speaker 10

And I do have a follow-up. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Hey, Mike, thanks for the question. For China, keep in mind that in 2023, things started to take a downturn in China beginning in Q2. 2. Q1 of 2023 was still roughly a solid quarter in China. So for Q1, We do have a more difficult compare considering that.

Speaker 3

And then it also impacts the year over year 2024 over 2023 compare as well. Going forward as far as what we assumed in 2024 for China, that's been more informed by what we've seen more recently around Q3 and Q4. And so overall, we aren't forecasting anything in China to get better right now. And so I would characterize it as flat roughly flat sequentially, but then year over year down when you consider the impact of Q1 2023.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Sykes with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for

Speaker 11

taking my questions. Maybe just following up on some of the color you gave to Patrick's questions on margins, more of a philosophical question for you, Justin. As you think about Given that 10x is now transitioned to multiproduct company, you've got different growth rates, different mixes, different margin profiles for each of these products. How do you think about the overall gross margin profile of the company? And is there sort of a line in the sand that you're willing to draw at 60%, 61%, 62% whatever the level is?

Speaker 11

And how do you manage that Given the commercial efforts balance between the different products, how much are you thinking about your margins and where you want them to maintain them in the near term when you're doing that? Yes.

Speaker 3

Hey, Matt, that's a great question. I think first, it's important to understand that we have a very long term view Of the business, we are definitely not focused on the near term. And so Margin plays into that, especially when we think about when you look at what we've done with the Zenium platform, where we know the instrument is lower margin, but that's really an investment in the future when you consider the consumable revenue streams. When we look at new product development, we have margin targets that we incorporate into the thinking and design there as far as the trade offs around the cost and the features and the volume. And so there is robust thinking that goes into that.

Speaker 3

We do have targets internally. I'd hesitate to put out a number publicly right now. But know that margin is very important to us that we recognize the strength that that's driven for us to be able to reinvest back into the business. But also keep in mind too that we do have a very long term orientation where we're focused on doing what's best for the business overall.

Operator

And your last question comes from the line of Mason Carrico with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. A lot has been asked here, but I just had one clean up real quick. So Justin, I think that you guys had talked about HD and the potential for it to accelerate CytoSys placements. And I may have heard this wrong, but in response to a prior question, I think that you said that You expected Cytusys instruments to be down year over year. So could you help me reconcile the 2 or maybe clarify what you said about Sidus displacements expectations this year?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure, Mason. I was talking to the assumptions that are in our guidance range right now. So at the midpoint, for Visium instruments, so CytoSys, that has an assumption of being slightly down year over year. And then there's an upside, if the adoption curve of Usium HD will help drive more side assist instruments. And just think about what we've done over the last year and since launching the CytoCyst roughly a year and a half ago where Our messaging has been focused on the CytoSys being the future of the Visium platform and that having a really strong adoption curve and a number of strong placement quarters with a good number of customers who we believe have not just bought it to use VIZIOM, but have also purchased it to be ready for Visium HD.

Speaker 3

And so I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves with an assumption in the guidance range because I think that there has been a lot of placements ahead of VIZIOM HD to be ready for it.

Speaker 2

And maybe just like a slight note to add. What I was referring to in my prepared remarks is that The sales of Cytosys this year will be some of them at least or a lot of them will be driven by a busy MHD. That is not to say that there is going to be an increase over what was the placements before because we certainly drove a lot of placements of Cytusys last year in anticipation of HT launch.

Operator

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
10x Genomics Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00