Spotify Technology Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 6, 2024

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Spotify's 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. All participants are in a listen only mode. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Goldberg, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

All right. Thanks, operator, and welcome to Spotify's Q4 2023 earnings conference call. Joining us today will be Daniel We'll start with opening comments from Daniel and Paul, and afterwards, we'll be happy to answer your questions. Questions can be submitted by going to slido.com, slido If for some reason you don't have access to Slido, you can e mail investorrelations@irspotify.com, and we'll add in your question. Before we begin, let me quickly cover the Safe During this call, we'll be making certain forward looking statements, including projections or estimates about the future performance of the company.

Speaker 1

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed on today's call, in Form 6 ks. And with that, I'll turn it over to Daniel.

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks, Brian, and hey, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I hope you've had the opportunity To review our shareholder deck to get a sense of what an incredible year 2023 was for Spotify. Throughout the year, we notched some really significant milestones and set numerous and set numerous records. This included 113,000,000 net adds on the MEU side and premium net adds of 31,000,000, Both the biggest full year additions in our history.

Speaker 2

And our annual RAPT experience also toppled previous levels of engagement, surpassing 2022 numbers in just the first 31 hours of the campaign. We accomplished all of this And while I'm pleased with the level of growth we saw in 2023, perhaps what is even more gratifying is that it also marked a very year for Spotify, a true evolution in how we operate our company. A year where we started to prove that we're not just a company that has an amazing product, but one that also is building a great business. And there's no question that we had to make some difficult decisions to put us on track to achieve our goal of being a consistently profitable company, but by taking these steps, I'm super confident in where we're heading. So looking to 2024, you should expect on monetization and efficiency, which in turn drives profitability.

Speaker 2

And I know some of you may start to wonder if we're With scale, there will be even more opportunities to do so. Therefore, growth is still the most important thing we can deliver. However, equally true is that our hurdle rate for investment has increased. So, what gives? Well, as I've shared before, we have various levers to pull price increases.

Speaker 2

In 2023, we leveraged all 3 throughout the year at various times, but this won't always be the And looking ahead, I believe 2024 is going to be another year of solid progress led by an acceleration of revenue growth. That In some years, it's focusing on growing the top of the funnel, and in some years, it's about driving monetization of those users. The last few years have been Extraordinary from the top of the funnel perspective. Our aim is to continue this trend, but our focus in 2024 is more on how we monetize that growth. I also wanted to provide a quick update on our audiobooks business, which is performing well and we are very excited about its potential.

Speaker 2

It's Still early days, but the feedback from listeners and from the industry is extremely encouraging. Data shows that our entry behind Audible, which is notable given how entrenched the legacy players are. And this is exactly what we set out to do: Grow the pie for the publishing industry and expand the interest in audiobooks to an entirely new set of listeners. More to come as this takes this opportunity with all of you on the line to thank him and wish him well. Although Paul is sticking around for a couple more months, this will be his last earnings call.

Speaker 2

He's been a great partner and helped to solidify the position of the strength that we sit in today. So thank you, Paul, for these years. I also wanted to give you a quick update on our CFO search. We are well underway and I'm happy with the caliber of the candidates that I'm seeing. As we enter this next phase of focusing on having both a great product and building a great business, I'm confident we will find the right person.

Speaker 2

Someone who is passionate about driving the levels of efficiency and resourcefulness that are critical to our long term success. Paul, Thanks again and over to you.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks, Daniel, and thanks everyone for joining us. I'd like to add a bit more color on the quarter and then touch upon the broader performance of the business and our outlook. Q4 is a very strong quarter. MAU grew by 28,000,000 to And we added 10,000,000 net subscribers finishing at 236,000,000.

Speaker 3

Both MAU and subscriber growth continue be above our historical trend and outperformed forecast. Revenue grew 16% year over year to $3,700,000,000 during the quarter. Excluding the effects of unfavorable currency movements, revenue grew 20% year on year, representing an acceleration of 300 basis points versus the prior quarter's result due to the ongoing effects of the new subscription pricing. Turning to gross margin. Gross margin of 26.7 percent was above guidance by about basis points due primarily to favorability in our podcast business.

Speaker 3

We reported an operating loss of $75,000,000 which was better than guidance due mainly to lower than expected marketing spend and personnel and related costs. As we previously disclosed, our operating loss was impacted by about 100 43,000,000 of charges related to the efficiency actions we announced in December. Excluding the one time charges, we generated $8,000,000 of adjusted operating profit, which is more than double the Q3 as the business continued its early stage of inflection towards sustainable growth and profitability. Finally, free cash flow was positive $396,000,000 in Q4. While some of this strength was timing related, We remain confident that we've entered a new chapter in terms of expanding the business the business' cash generation potential.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead to the Q1 guidance, We are forecasting 618,000,000 MAU, an increase of 16,000,000 from Q4 and 230,000,000 subscribers, an increase of 3,000,000 over Q4. We're also forecasting a currency neutral revenue growth rate of 20% -plus year on year, pointing to $3,600,000,000 in total revenue. We also anticipate a gross margin of 26.4 percent and an operating profit of $180,000,000 While we no longer give full year guidance, we do expect healthy full year 2024 user growth that should be close to the average of the last few years, and we expect strong subscriber growth as well. Gross margin and operating margin are both expected to improve throughout the year to deliver meaningful full year expansion with podcasting expected to deliver positive gross profit For the year. We also expect our free cash flow generation to meaningfully exceed what we generated in 2023.

Speaker 3

And finally, as Brian mentioned, Ben Ben Kung, who has been a trusted partner of mine in finance, is also on the call and will be joining us for q and a. And additionally, I'd like to thank Daniel and all of my colleagues over the past

Speaker 1

slido.comspotifyearningsq42323. We're going to be reading the questions in the order they appear in the queue with respect to Podcasting. Have podcasts flipped into positive gross profit yet? And how do you think about inflection here through 'twenty four as you're rationalizing content spending?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll take this one, Doug. Yes. So I think just to level set with everyone, I think when we had our Investor Day last year, everyone was probably And obviously, as we outlined then, podcasting was a drag to the business, but something we were committed to turn around. And I'm pleased to say in Q4, we were Very close to breakeven on that business, which gives me a lot of confidence that as we get into 2024, we will achieved a full year profitability target on podcasting.

Speaker 2

And so when you think about them, what are the drivers for that to happen? Well, it's really 2 drivers. On the top line side, we're still seeing healthy growth on engagement. That engagement in turns means there'll be more opportunities for us to monetize Those engagement hours, and that's the top line. And then on the bottom line, we have doubled down on the deals that worked.

Speaker 2

And we've Really throughout 2023 gotten out of a lot of the deals that didn't work. And that's the result you're now seeing with the Close to breakeven and that then will lead to a positive podcasting business in 2024.

Speaker 1

All right. Our next question is going to come from Michael Morris on margins. What are the most impactful steps that will help you progress towards your long term music gross margin goal of 30% to 35%. And can you share more detail on the gross margin levers in 2024 and the relative impact you anticipate from each?

Speaker 4

In terms of the progress on the music margin goals, we see a lot of potential in the growth of our marketplace products as we continue to focus on driving adoption of those and adding value to our label partners and therefore sort of building upon the that we've already made to date in that area. In terms of 2024, I think you've called out some of the key levers with respect to your Comment on Q1. Really, the story of 2024, I think, can be broken into sort of these three parts. It's a continuation of Journey on profitability in podcasting, it's the continuation of marketplace growth, as I mentioned, and also just gaining greater efficiency and leverage in our other cost to revenue

Speaker 1

Okay. We've got a question now from Rich Greenfield on advertising. With advertising revenues still under 14% of your revenues. I'm surprised to see it's not growing faster than subscription revenue. How do you accelerate advertising growth to reach your goals of it becoming 20% plus of your Our revenues.

Speaker 1

Yes.

Speaker 3

I'd say a couple of things here. So first, I think we're very pleased with how advertising is growing. Obviously, the market in a Lot of ways continues to be choppy, but our FX neutral high teens growth on the advertising side, we think, is really strong and really strong relative to The industry overall, so we feel good about kind of the advertising growth. That's number 1. Number 2 is we've obviously seen on the subscriber side, it's faster growth on subscribers in General plus, we've had a price increase.

Speaker 3

And so just the overall growth on the premium side has probably been even faster than maybe we would have thought and others would have thought when you factor in both Outside subscriber growth and the price increase. And the last thing I'd also just remind you of, the advertising business does get impacted more significantly by FX than the premium business. And so when you're thinking about just reported numbers, that also has an impact on sort of the progression. But I think we feel really good about both sides of the businesses right now. Everything is progressing as planned.

Speaker 1

All right. We've got a follow-up from Rich Greenfield on podcasting. How should we think about the revenue

Speaker 2

Yeah, Rich. So I think to kind of up level and talk about it generally and remind people. So when we walked into The podcasting, we actually went in with multiple strategies at once. We did exclusives that you're referencing to, but we also did Our own and original programming and we also did licensed non exclusive deals too. And what we said At the time, I think many people mostly sort of made a reference to thinking that this was an all out exclusive effort similar to that of Netflix.

Speaker 2

But we said we're we take much more of an opportunity approach to the strategy. And we're going to try many different things. And for some shows, exclusives may matter. For some others, it don't. So I think the general story, just to be Candid here with all of you on the line is that what we've seen is that while exclusivities were net positive on the side, it's not driving as much as that we see on the ad side.

Speaker 2

And so by broadening distribution, we think we can accomplish a number of different goals. Most notable among them, we are going to be more aligned with the creator. The creator obviously wants to be on many different platforms and wants to Have as big of an audience as possible. So that's important. And then the second part is when you think about the growth story on advertising.

Speaker 2

We're very excited with what we've been seeing in early 2023 with these new types of deals that we've been structuring because We really become aligned with the creator. And long term, that is the reason why I started Spotify. We care We're not asking the creator to trade one for the other. And because advertising is in such a strong growth position for us, I feel I'm really excited about the opportunity we can bring both the creators, and to Spotify itself with that strategy.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question comes from Zach Morrissey on Marketplace. Can you provide an update on Marketplace How that performed in 2023? And how should we think about momentum into 'twenty four?

Speaker 3

Yes. Marketplace performed really well in 3, yes, the growth rate that basically the contribution to gross profit grew at similar rates to 2022, so really strong growth In 2023. And then just to reiterate what Ben said prior about overall gross margin, when you think about the improvements in gross margin moving to 20 24,

Speaker 1

Okay. We've got a follow-up from Zach. You saw strong subscriber growth and marketing Leverage in 2023, how are you thinking about marketing spend in 2024? And do you see more room for further efficiencies?

Speaker 2

Yes. And just as a reminder to everyone, this is something I talked about, I believe, during the Q1 earnings call in 2023 where I was positively surprised in some of the efficiencies we were seeing in still sort of healthy Top line growth. And that trend has been continuing for much of 2023. And the reality is we don't know how far that will go. I feel good about The efficiencies we're seeing so far, the big concern always when you're making these things is You may see some healthy positive responses intra quarter, but then long term, are you impacting the brand?

Speaker 2

So we're always going to modulate towards that. But But I think what we've been seeing so far has just been pure efficiencies and quite great ones. And I expect there's still some. But the question is, Still internally, we're still debating how much. The most important thing for us, as I said, is long term growth still for the company.

Speaker 2

So that's what we will optimize And I think you're going to see us modulate between the quarters. Some quarters we may spend a little bit more on, some less. The most important metric for all of you, though, is to think about The LTV to SAC, we referenced this before. It had been in 2022 and 2023 going down, the efficiency on some of our spend. Now you're going to see a higher hurdle rate.

Speaker 2

So we're going to be a lot more diligent as we're thinking about these marketing investments overall. But the spending quarter Per quarter may be more opportunistic, and you should think about it as such. But if you see a strong LTV to sack, why wouldn't you? And that's the approach we take.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Eric Sheridan on Accelerating the pathway to long term margin targets in the next few years and or optimizing internal efficiency on an annualized

Speaker 5

.:]

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll start and then Paul or Ben, if you want to chime in on that. Yes. I mean I really talked about it in my Introductory remarks, but it is a new way for us to operate as a company, one where we're consistently thinking about efficiency all the time top line. We started doing it in early 2023, and I think we are gradually becoming better quarter by quarter.

Speaker 2

And I think investors should expect The same much for 2024. We are going to continuously look at being more resourceful with the resources we have. That's just the new modus operandi that we have. But that said, that obviously leads To a concern then, okay, well, are we doing that to sacrifice at the expense of growth? And the answer should be, Of course not.

Speaker 2

That's not at all what we want to do. We still care about long term growth because we believe that's where we're Going to be able to solve real and meaningful problems for consumers and creators alike with scale. So that's our our real focus. But it's a constant balancing act. And I think what you're seeing us rather than sort of growth at all costs or growth, growth, growth, you're going to see us Quarter by quarter optimizing at various parts of that funnel.

Speaker 2

Sometimes it's top line growth. Sometimes it's bottom line. As a general trend, We had healthy top line growth in 2023. 2024 is about monetizing more of that top line growth. That's the general trend.

Speaker 2

But you'll see in various geographies, we may have just MU growth as the goal. And in some others, it may be more of Just Harpoo approach as an example.

Speaker 3

I would just add, I think, to everything Daniel said, if you think about, the free cash flow and the acceleration of free cash and the better profitability, it just gives the business so much more optionality in terms of what it can do moving forward. And I think you've seen that sort of inflection on the free cash flow side. You've now seen us on adjusted basis profitable for 2 quarters in a row with the forecast again for Q1 of And so all that just puts the business in a much better place, for the team to have the optionality to invest in areas that really makes sense for the long term.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Rich Greenfield on audiobooks. What surprises you most about the current state of the audiobook market?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Rich, I think it's, it's 2 parts of focus. So I think on our side, the Intriguing part is we are able to bring a whole new audience to audiobooks. So internally and externally, I think the biggest surprise In the type of titles that resonate with consumers, these are not the normal titles that traditionally As well, the Do Well on Spotify, and that's pleasing to see because that means we're we're bringing a whole new audience to Audiobooks, the format, which is great to see. And then I think, overall, I'm just happy to see that, the partners we have on the publisher And this is an industry that's so important, I think, to the world.

Speaker 2

And it's great to see that There's a hunger and willingness to innovate among all of our partners there. So that's definitely been a positive surprise. And It's amazing to see also how much value audiobooks is adding to our subscriber base. So I feel really good about

Speaker 1

Okay. Next question is from Benjamin Black on margins. Last quarter, you mentioned 20 24 gross margins should exceed those of 2023. Is that still the case? And if so, how should we be thinking about the trajectory gross margins throughout 2024.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Benjamin. Building on my earlier commentary, we feel very excited about the potential for We expect that we're going to continue focusing on what we did in 2023, which is building sequential growth in that gross margin. And it's about executing against those building blocks of

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Jareef Ehrlich on, the music business. Universal Music Group just pulled their music from TikTok. What are the implications to Spotify from a competitive standpoint? And how does this impact, If at all your negotiations with your recorded music partners.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Obviously, I'm not going to comment on on, any sort of Competitive dynamic. But what I can say is we feel really good about our relationship with our music partners. It's probably at the best it's been. I don't know, whatever.

Speaker 2

It's been better, to be honest. So I feel really good about where we are with our music partners. I feel great about, the value we're bringing to the music industry. And I think that's being widely recognized. And, yeah, I I don't think it has much of an implication, any other competitive dynamic.

Speaker 2

But we feel good about the partnership. We feel great about Opportunities to enhance the partnership to any extent that that creates opportunity. So, yeah, we're overall very excited.

Speaker 1

All right. Our next question is from Maria Ripps on audiobooks. Could you talk about what type of engagement you've seen with the free 15 hours of audiobooks listening? To what extent do you think the expanded value proposition is driving any of the subscriber momentum? And are you seeing any uplift to audiobooks purchases in the relevant markets?

Speaker 2

Strong, very positively surprised about the content mix it's driving as well, what type of titles Maybe some of the titles that traditionally doesn't do as well in in the book market, but also pleasing is very Seeing as very many, younger authors, newer authors as well, given the model where you can take a chance on A totally new book without sort of eating up the credits, which I think kind of drove you towards more safer bets. So, we're seeing a very, very interesting sort of trend around the content consumption, which is really great and I believe additive to the entire book industry, But, what we've seen generally speaking is the more engagement we have on our platform, the better the value is, of Of course. And then everyone knows that audiobooks is an expensive proposition where, you know, buying an audiobooks today, costs a lot of money. So it is another reason why we're offering a great value to our consumers. And that, of course, gives us

Speaker 1

Okay. Next question from Justin Patterson on revenue Investors now have confidence in your operating margin potential, and the redesigned app is resonating with users. As you look ahead, What should give investors confidence in your revenue growth achieving the 20% targets outlined at your Investor Day?

Speaker 2

I'll start with this one, Ben, and then maybe you can chime in. So I think, again, this is very much a continuation of the trend of 2023. And just to level set again, 2023, we walked into the year thinking that we will have healthy top line growth and focus on the bottom line on efficiencies. And that was pretty much the year. But we exceeded all of our expectations on the MEU side, which Then translated into exceeding all of our expectations on the subside.

Speaker 2

And then, when you topple that with price increases, that leads to a very healthy dynamic. And that top line growth has really been a continuation of that trend in all of 2023. So, I've said this before, but I'll say it again. MAU growth, sooner or later than translate into conversion to subscriber, that sooner or later than translate into Revenue growth that sooner or later then translates into bottom line. And so given 2023, I feel really good about our ability to have healthy revenue growth throughout the year.

Speaker 2

And with this smaller cost structure that we're having because of the focus on efficiency that we had really Throughout 2023, we talked about it on the podcasting side. We talked about it on the employee side. But also, as Ben mentioned, With cloud costs, all of the other things that we've been focusing on, that should give you confidence that 2024 will be a great year. I don't know if you have any addition, Ben.

Speaker 4

Yes. No, I think all that commentary is very much sort of the perspective going forward. The top funnel kind of of our user side and sub side looks very strong, and I think the focus is about sort of monetizing that, both from a premium subscription as well as focusing on making sure that our ads business continues to grow at a healthy clip going forward. So we feel very strong about Progressing towards the 20% targets.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Kannan Venkateshwar on Product. Given that pricing is a bigger part of the growth algorithm, have you considered models beyond the all you can eat framework used today?

Speaker 2

In in fact, we we actually already do have some other pricing mechanics throughout the world. It's easy to think that Spotify is a Single proposition for everyone in the world. It's far from today. So for instance, we have a day pass as just one product Scratch cards from on a weekly basis in order to top up their Spotify listening. So, we are very much adapting our pricing models in favor of what consumers want.

Speaker 2

And that's something that you should expect us to continue to do. Now with that said, To touch a little bit, one of the things, of course, why we are talking about the Apple case is Many things like, for instance, a la carte purchases, things like, super fan things, like purchasing of audiobooks, top up Things that could be quite meaningful for Spotify's revenues is a significant hindrance today because Apple insists on taking Taking a 30% cut, which in many cases exceeds even our own cuts that we're able to take inside of the app. So Some of these more innovative things that we would like to do, we're currently restricted in doing on the iOS ecosystem, which limits some of that more innovative things that we would like to do. So, yeah, all in all, we are Already doing it in other territories, we would like to do even more of it. But to do that, certainly in the Western world, which many of these markets being very heavily iOS influenced, We are precluded from from doing it at a way where which could be profitable and good for consumers and creators, because of Apple's stance.

Speaker 1

All right. That's a good segue into Michael Morris' question on the Digital Markets Act. You've posted twice about the DMA with the potential positives to your business and then also about your dissatisfaction with Apple's proposed changes. Do you expect the DMA to be implemented in a way that supports your vision? And if so, what do you expect the new functions to be available?

Speaker 1

And how may they impact the company financially?

Speaker 2

Yeah, Michael. I think the truth is we don't know yet. We outlined our response to how we would be Compliant with the DMA, but obviously that then very much depends on Apple's stance in allowing us to do so. And Apple then obviously subsequently responded with their stance, which is very much incongruent with our stance on the matter. And Frankly, I think it's a bit of a forest because it looks on the surface that they're complying with it.

Speaker 2

But behind the surface,

Speaker 1

they're doing pretty much everything to make this such

Speaker 2

an unattractive experience that thing to make this such an unattractive experience that no sane developer want to pick any of the new terms. Now the good news, I guess, From the investor standpoint, and I know that there initially was some questions about whether or not this would be a downside for Spotify. I don't think that's the case. So, you know, we still have the ability to be on the old terms and keep going as we're currently going. But there are Future upsides that could be quite significant.

Speaker 2

We talked a little bit about it with, you know, fan clubs, all these other things that we could do for creators That we would probably be barred from doing, because it simply would mean that all of Spotify would be unprofitable if we took these new terms. So, you know, no downside, but there would be quite a lot of upside if in fact we were going to be able to do what we wanted to do, not just for 7th. So obviously, my hope is still very much that the European Commission will take action and allow this to happen because it will Far greater for the ecosystem, both for consumers and creators alike.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question comes from Batya Levi on audiobooks. How should we think about the impact of audiobooks consumption cost On margins.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Batya. So as you know, we don't really break out the individual components like that. What I will say is While we're investing in audiobooks, we still see a nice improvement in gross margin through 2024, which Ben has talked about at length already on the call. So, we feel like we have a model for audiobooks and the progression of audiobooks over the next couple of years.

Speaker 3

It's going to be very additive. We've talked about it at the Investor Day where we believe the long term gross margin of the audiobooks business can get to, and so we're still really encouraged about that. And in general, we're very optimistic that you're going to continue to see gross margin progression throughout 2024.

Speaker 1

Okay. We've got another question From Kanan, this time on the music business. Has growth in international markets helped flip any major ones from fixed minimum payouts to variable payouts? And could we see some impact in

Speaker 4

The short version the short answer to this question is a yes. I would say that it's been a story of steady progress in sort of how We grow the user base and then begin to monetize them in these international markets. And there's really kind of 2 engines to this. It's about sort of driving subscriber growth And building upon sort of the subscription revenues in these markets, but also making sure that we start to light up the advertising side In these markets as well, both of which basically ultimately help us clear these hurdles in fixed minimum payouts. So I think the story is one of

Speaker 1

We've got another question from Doug Anmuth on podcasting. With most major podcast content renewals resolved, what are your key priorities for the podcast business in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Much more of a continuation of 2023 with the exception, obviously, So as you said, we've kind of transitioned the podcasting business from one structure to a different structure throughout 2023. That's mostly done. Now it's Back to innovation and growth again. What I'm most excited about is there are lots of things creators are asking us to do, that enables them to Testing growing in a healthy way on the platform.

Speaker 2

You've seen us add Q and A responses, which is quite phenomenal to see the comments that are showing up on Spotify, now, you've seen much more interactivity and more and more creators are starting to use those tools. But that's just the beginning. We have plenty of plans, on podcasting, which I think, will mean more content on the platform, which I also think means more engagement. So, you know, it's been a profitability story in 2023, and I think that's going to play out. But what we're focused on It's really all about now growing podcasting and increasing it.

Speaker 2

And we think it's a lot larger of a medium than most people really They give it credit for. So, that's not what we need to prove, but we're doing so from a profitable standpoint instead of one that's losing a lot of money for us.

Speaker 1

Okay. We've got a question from Rich Greenfield on User engagement. Daniel, you've talked about user interest in your hack day creation, Daylist, which feels like another AIML use case to drive engagement. How is it impacting overall usage and time spent? And by the way, my day list for today is sad tailspin Tuesday.

Speaker 1

All right.

Speaker 2

Well, hopefully, nothing we're saying on this call today gives you any reason to tailspin on a sad basis. But jokes aside, yes, I mean, this again is a story of innovation at Spotify. What's so cool is we have these crazy engineers and scientists inside of the company that dreams up these kind of weird and wonderful things which seems like very narrow use cases. But this is culture. And what they do is they test culture and they bring it out And then personalize culture to people.

Speaker 2

And it turns out that that people are just reacting in in this weird and wonderful way, and they want to express their own identity through music, Which in itself is not surprising. It's a very core thing for humanity and something that we've been doing. And the team keeps finding weird and wonderful ways for consumers to be able to do that. And I think I referenced this, but we saw You know, search has increased by over 2,000 percent on their list. So it's a widely sought after feature.

Speaker 2

People are Churning these types of things out, it's kind of our way of creating content. And I'm really proud of the team And the things that they're doing in this department, and it wouldn't surprise me if we see many more innovative things come out of it, Both on of course on the music side, but later on also reflecting that on the audiobook side and the podcasting side as well.

Speaker 1

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Benjamin Black on efficiency. What are some of the key learnings you've seen With the more streamlined cost structure and as we look ahead, what's your philosophy on headcount growth?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, the The key things are probably not the surprising things. It's always what happens, right? Initially, when you go through an exercise, everyone kind of says, well, we can't cut this Because then all of a sudden, everything will stop working. And it turns out that, as is true in so many cases, most things can tend to work anyway Even when you go through that exercise, it actually even killing things that sometimes sort of works is a healthy thing to refocus and reenergize people on the Things that really drive lots of value.

Speaker 2

So those are are some of the obvious lessons, which I think you guys have heard plenty of times before on these calls It's this notion of being relentlessly resourceful. For me, that means to think constantly about the resources we're having and not just think about Getting more of them, but thinking about how we reallocate constantly everything we're doing to the most, and highest impact use case. And there I don't think we are yet. So I think the good news is that there is still some ways for us to go on it. And I think the way you should think about headcount growth is We're not allergic to it.

Speaker 2

We're not saying, hey, we can never ever grow anything. We should grow things that obviously are working, but the hurdle rate For any new type of investments, we'll be much higher than what it has been. And more importantly, I think you're going to see us be more diligent in shutting down things that Perhaps have sort of worked, but may not work as well going forward into the future. And you're going to see that all across the company in a pretty big way. And I think the biggest takeaway I can give to you, that doesn't mean that the company's Any danger of any kind because sometimes that get interpreted by media and investors like, oh, if they're no longer Showing up in a big way to Event X.

Speaker 2

Maybe they're in dire straits and so on. That's not the case. We're just simply thinking about Are there better ways for us to do this? Are there better ways for us to achieve this efficiency? And try to think outside Out of the box, maybe it is not to throw the lavish party.

Speaker 2

Maybe it is to have a virtual party where we could have 10 times the audience come and show up. Maybe it is about Partnering with other brands in doing something in conjunction that where 1 plus 1 doesn't equal 2 but equals 3 or more. So you're going to see us, I think still have a lot to learn, but re question things that in the past have worked, but we need to Think about how we do them going forward.

Speaker 1

All right. We've got time for a few more questions. Our next one is going to come from Steven Cahall on margins. 1st quarter is typically the lower margin quarter of the year. Are there any onetime benefits in the Strong implied Q1 margin guidance?

Speaker 1

Or can we assume the same seasonality of sequentially improving margins for 2024?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Stephen. I think you have sort of the right themes in your question there. I think to reiterate, as Daniel said in 2023, we had a lot of focus areas between sort of growing our users and subs, Driving sort of monetization through price increases and the efficiency actions, all these have sort of taken our core business, I think, to to a new stair step. And I think Q1 is sort of where that new core business is shining through. And so I think that It implies sort of like a new starting point, I think, for where you can expect the margin to go.

Speaker 4

And as I said before, our focus is to continue building on that quarter on quarter into 2024. So we look forward to making progress in that department.

Speaker 1

Okay. We've got a question from Richard Kramer on execution. What's the message to the organization about new growth initiatives Following your recent headcount reduction, how do you mitigate the execution risk in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think implied in your Question, Richard, is obviously this. How do you do both? How do you, on the one end, save? And how do you tell people that You want to grow.

Speaker 2

And I think this is why, in my last response, I focus so much about the mindset of Being relentlessly resourceful and what it actually means. So I don't think it is eitheror. I think it's bothand. And so I think we need to become You talk about execution risk. I think it is exactly the right thing and right framing of it.

Speaker 2

It is about Execution. It isn't about strategy. It's about how do we by constraining the resources we have, how do we think about different ways To executing some of these newer growth initiatives. You know, if if the hurdle rates, is x, How can we more quickly prove out that something is working? Those are some of the questions that I, Ben, Paul and the rest of the team Teams are excited.

Speaker 2

They're excited to show that there's a different path to do this. They're excited because they also see the momentum in How it currently translates to the business, and that sort of momentum fuels, that mindset as well. I think it would have been honestly Harder to do so from a backdrop if we had to do some of these discussions if we had a year, year and a half of slog of just ever sort of Going through this, but we've actually gone through all the hard stuff this past year. And we have plenty of things to learn, of course, but I feel really good about now The optimism that the team has, never fun to do a riff, of course. And so, you know, we're happy to have this behind us.

Speaker 2

And We feel, obviously a huge sense of gratitude to everyone who has been part of the company and then had to Eve, but, I know the team is excited about where we are and where we're heading and how it's translate into a healthier Spotify.

Speaker 1

Is it reasonable to assume that Spotify is looking to structure most of its podcast deals in a similar fashion to what was reported in The Wall Street Journal regarding Joe Rogan. And how's the company thinking about the trade off between engagement and advertising revenue or profitability by deemphasizing exclusivity?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I think, Maria, I sort of already mentioned some of these things. But generally speaking, we had multiple strategies In podcasting, it wasn't just all about exclusivities, even if that got most of the sort of press headlines. And what we've been able to see here is As we've been learning over these past few years is that while some of these exclusivity deals worked, generally, it wasn't aligned with what the creator On it, the creator wants to have broader audience. And I feel like with these new deals that we've been making for most of 2023, We are in a position where we're actually better aligned with the creator.

Speaker 2

We can both deliver the growth rate and we are equally incentivized So, I think the team was able to innovate and create a much smarter structure. And that is the path we see going forward on more and more of our deals. And, I think even on the MU side, it will be on a on a healthy basis because we're in a very different position And then we were just a few years ago in podcasting, because today, Spotify is in many cases, the number one Casting player already. So exclusivity makes sense when you're the smaller player trying to gain scale. When you're the bigger player, The additional value of the exclusivity is far smaller than it is about being aligned.

Speaker 2

And It feels also that from a values point of view, this is better aligned with who we are at Spotify too.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Maria, and thanks, everyone, for your questions. That's going to conclude our question and answer session today. And I'd like to turn it back over to Daniel for some closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Thanks, Brian. The long term opportunity for Spotify is strong. Hopefully, you heard that now during the call and during the Q and A session. And we will continue to innovate in big and small ways to deliver for our listeners and the artists, creators and authors on our platform.

Speaker 2

And make no mistake that we will continue to make bold bets, invest and seize on the opportunities when they make sense. But Hopefully, it's clear now with much more disciplined approach going forward. Thanks everyone for joining us today.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. And that concludes today's call. A replay will be available on our website and also on the Spotify app under Spotify Earnings Call Replays. Thanks everyone for joining.

Operator

This concludes Spotify's Q4 2023 earnings call and webcast.

Powered by Quartr

Key Takeaways

  • Spotify delivered record user growth in 2023 with 113 million net MAU adds and 31 million premium net adds, closing Q4 at 618 million MAUs and 236 million subscribers, while Q4 revenue grew 16% year-over-year (20% fx-neutral) to $3.7 billion.
  • Cost efficiency actions drove an adjusted operating profit of $8 million in Q4 (vs. a $75 million operating loss including one-time charges) and free cash flow of $396 million, highlighting a shift toward sustainable profitability.
  • Q1 2024 guidance forecasts 618 million MAUs (+16 million), 230 million subscribers, >20% fx-neutral revenue growth to $3.6 billion, 26.4% gross margin and $180 million operating profit, with full-year goals to expand margins and free cash flow.
  • The podcast business reached near-breakeven in Q4 and is targeted to achieve full-year profitability in 2024 by rationalizing expensive exclusivity deals and accelerating ad monetization under creator-friendly licensing.
  • Early performance of the audiobooks segment is encouraging, as Spotify’s free listening hours and broader distribution are attracting a new listener base and positioning the business for long-term margin contribution.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Spotify Technology Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00