Conifex Timber Q1 2024 Earnings Report

Conifex Timber EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -C$0.11
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Conifex Timber Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $40.70 million
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Conifex Timber Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2024
• Date: 5/9/2024
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, May 9, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Conifex Timber (TSE:CFF) Inc is a Canada based forestry company. It operates through two segments: Lumber and Bioenergy. The main activities of the lumbar segment include timber harvesting, reforestation, forest management, sawmilling logs into lumber and wood chips, and value-added lumber finishing. The firm's primary activities of the bioenergy segment are the generation of electrical power and the development of other opportunities in bioenergy and bioproducts which are complementary to the company's harvesting and manufacturing operations. The firm's main activities areas are the United States, Chinese, Canadian and Japanese markets. Most of the revenues are generated from the lumber in the United States of America.

Conifex Timber Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Reported Q1 negative EBITDA of US$0.1 million and a net loss of US$4.5 million (CAD 0.11 per share), though improved from Q4’s US$3.5 million loss.
• As of March 31, book value per share stood at CAD 2.75 (about four times trading price), and potentially refundable export duties of ~US$35 million translate into CAD 1.18 per share, highlighting significant undervalued assets.
• Removal of the beetle-salvage sourcing requirement and a new annual allowable cut (AAC) of 2.39 million m³—three times Conifex’s 0.8 million m³ needs—ensures ample fiber supply and positions the complex on a lower industry cost curve.
• The company’s top Q2 priority is to refinance its lumber business debt, fully repay Wells Fargo facilities, and has engaged Raymond James, with market feedback so far described as encouraging.
• A US$100 million power generation investment has stabilized cash flow and a successful data center trial was halted by a BC Hydro interconnection moratorium, prompting an ongoing legal appeal.

Presentation

[Operator]

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Ken Shields, the CEO and chairman of the company. Please go ahead.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Well, thank you, Michael, and welcome everyone to this call covering our first quarter 2024 results. Andrew McLellan and I, our President and Chief Operating Officer, and Trevor, our Chief Financial Officer, had travel commitments and a work schedule over the past few days that necessitated that I would be the lead-off speaker at this call. But I can assure you they're around to respond to questions and comments that you have.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Let's quickly deal with a housekeeping item. We will be making forward-looking statements and references to non-IFRS measures, and therefore call your attention to the warning statements set out on pages 1 and 2 of our MD&A, which we expect will be released very shortly along with our financial statements.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Turning to our Q1 results, in the first quarter, you'll note from the press release that we reported negative EBITDA of CAD 0.5 million and a net loss of CAD 4.5 million or CAD 0.11 for Conifex share. As of March 31, our book value per share was CAD 2.75, which of course is roughly 4 times our recent stock trading price.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

After depositing CAD 1.37 million in lumber export duties, our potentially refundable duties now exceed $35 million, which is equivalent to around CAD 47 million. Before any provisions for potential holdbacks or income taxes, this translates into a value of CAD 1.18 per Conifex share, which is about exactly double our recent share trading price.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Our Q1 results were consistent with the guidance we provided you on the previous call when we indicated that we expected to record a lower EBITDA loss in Q1 than the CAD 3.5 million we reported for Q4 of 2023. Our first quarter results were impacted by three unusual items. First, we recognized CAD 3 million in insurance proceeds. This benefit was partially offset by increased professional services expenses we incurred, mainly related to our debt restructuring and capital raising initiatives.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

The insurance proceeds benefit was also offset by shift cancellations at our sawmill complex due to extremely cold weather in January. Later in the quarter, the unusually mild weather we had later adversely impacted log deliveries, and Q2 sawmill production will be held back a few days by log supply shortages.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

In total, however, we're very pleased with our Q1 achievements at the complex in terms of safety, environmental compliance, and harvest sustainability. Turning to fiber supply considerations, on our call with you exactly one year ago, we announced the May 2023 release by BC's chief forester of a new harvest level determination for the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area (TSA). Prior to that year, our EBITDA was held back by a decision the chief forester made back in 2014, mandating tenure holders in the Mackenzie TSA source 55% of their saw log supply from dead-and-dying beetle-killed stands.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

We are pleased to report that the requirement to focus on salvage stands was removed on May 4th last year, and following a transition period, our current harvest is now primarily sourced from green, commercially viable stands. The chief forester set the new annual allowable cut, or AAC, at 2.39 million cubic meters.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

We operate the only sawmill complex in Mackenzie, and our annual fiber requirements amount to about 800,000 cubic meters. It follows that the new AAC is roughly three times our present requirement, and these figures confirm that we do not face fiber supply constraints that are impacting other sawmilling operations in BC. In fact, the Mackenzie timber supply area has a degree of saw log self-sufficiency that is unparalleled at any other TSA in the interior region of BC.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

The Ministry of Forests very recently advised us to expect some new announcements in the next two or three months about additional steps it intends to take to further strengthen the economic sustainability of saw log supply in the Mackenzie TSA.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Summing up to this point, the chief forester's 2023 decision and upcoming ministry announcements have enabled our Mackenzie site to migrate to a lower and more enviable ranking on the North American lumber industry cost curve. Going forward, the EBITDA per 1,000 board feet of lumber produced that Conifex expects to report will be in better alignment with the EBITDA reported by the other major public lumber companies. Turning now to our debt situation, most of you would be aware that our lumber and power generation businesses are separately financed.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Our number one priority for Q2 of 2024 is to successfully conclude the process that's been launched to refinance our lumber business. We plan to repay in full the credit facilities we presently have in place for Wells Fargo. We've engaged Raymond James Ltd. to advise and assist us to achieve this outcome.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

We're encouraged by the response we've had to date from lenders in the market and are working on a priority basis to conclude agreements associated with the replacement funding. On previous calls with you, we've mentioned how the CAD 100 million we invested in power generation at Mackenzie materially enhances and stabilizes cash flow generation and furthers our objective to own and operate the most economically viable and environmentally sustainable sawmill processing site in the interior region of BC.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Over the past few years, we've been exploring opportunities to leverage the expertise we have in the power business to find other ways to boost our sustainable cash flow.In furtherance of this objective, we've hosted a data center facility on a trial basis for the past couple of years. The results from the trial have been encouraging, and last year, for example, the facility operated at full capacity with minimal downtime.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

But the strong EBITDA that we generated over the past 12 months relative to the investment we made in the facility confirmed the financial attractiveness of the new business we intend to develop. Our plans to scale this new business were halted in December of 2022 when the provincial cabinet instructed BC Hydro to suspend its obligation to provide electric-electric connection services for a period of 18 months.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Work was therefore halted at two sites BC Hydro had identified for us in northern BC as potential locations with power available to support high-performance computing data centers that we wished to own and operate. Consequently, in April of 2023, we filed a petition with the Supreme Court of BC seeking to set aside the action the provincial cabinet took.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

The Supreme Court judge agreed with us that the provincial cabinet did not have the power to impose a permanent moratorium on interconnection services but agreed with the province that a temporary moratorium could be applied. We disagree with the judge's decision and are therefore appealing it. In conclusion, the improving demand for our products, our differentiated fiber supply, and the attractive opportunities we have to broaden our power business provide us the foundation we require to develop a profitable, growing business.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

With these promising attributes, speaking to you as both the CEO and as the largest individual shareholder in Conifex, my conviction in our ability to overcome the unprecedented degree of undervaluation of our stock price has never been greater. Thank you for your interest in Conifex.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Andrew, Trevor, and I look forward to responding to any questions analysts and shareholders may have, so we'll turn the meeting back over to Michael.

[Operator]

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, you can register by dialing star 1 on your device keypad. There will be a brief pause while participants register. Once again, if you have a question, please dial star 1 on your device keypad. There are no questions at the moment, sir.

[Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex]

Okay. Well, that's possibly understandable because of the slight interruption we had in releasing certain of our shareholder materials, Michael. We'll call it a day, and thank you very much for servicing our call.

[Operator]

Certainly, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, your conference has now ended. All callers are asked to disconnect their lines at this time, and thank you for joining today's call.

Participants

Analysts

• Kenneth Shields, CEO and Chairman at Conifex