Steel Dynamics Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 18, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics Second Quarter 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After management's remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised this call is being recorded today, July 18, 2024, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Matt. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' 2nd quarter 2024 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics Teresa Wagner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.

Speaker 1

Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risk and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annually filed SEC Form 10 ks under the headings Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov and, if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10 Q. You'll also find any referenced non GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports 2nd Quarter 2024 Results.

Speaker 1

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate you being with us on our Q2 2024 earnings call. As you likely read, our teams achieved a solid second quarter financial and operational performance. I think most gratifying was achieving another great quarter for safety.

Speaker 2

Teams have been commissioning and ramping up 4 new value add flat roll steel coating lines at a record rapid pace, which is adding 1,100,000 tons of higher margin product diversification. Though experiencing some challenges in the Q2, the Cinthon team continues to make progress gaining full access to their melting capacity this past week. Fuel shipments for the quarter were 3,200,000 tons, revenues were $4,600,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA $686,000,000 Cash flow from operations was $383,000,000 I remain incredibly proud of the Steel Dynamics team. They are family. It's an honor and a pleasure to be honest to be part of the team that looks out for one another and that strives for excellence each and every day.

Speaker 2

And that's why we're so focused on providing the very best for their health, their safety and their welfare. We're actively engaged in safety at all times and at every level, keeping it top of mind in an active conversation each and every day. A significant impact, the team continues to be deeply focused on our tick controller safety program, resulting an even better safety culture. But as I always say, there's more to do and we will not rest until we consistently achieve our goal of 0 injuries. So with that said, Teresa, would you like to add some color to the quarter?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us and thanks to teams for another solid Our Q2 2024 net income was $428,000,000 or $2.72 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $686,000,000 2nd quarter 2004 revenue of 4 point $6,000,000 was slightly below sequential first quarter results due to lower realized steel pricing. Our 2nd quarter operating income of $559,000,000 was 26% lower than 1st quarter results driven by steel metal spread contraction as pricing declined more than scrap raw material costs. Our steel operations generated operating income of $442,000,000 34% lower sequentially due to average realized pricing declining $63 to $11.38 per tonne, while total shipments were generally steady.

Speaker 3

Uniquely, all of our steel mills except for Roanoke had planned maintenance outages in the 2nd quarter, which impacted utilization and related conversion costs for the quarter. Additionally, our Sinton, Texas flat rolled steel division operated close to 60% of capacity for the quarter compared to almost 70% in the Q1 due to required outages to implement needed changes, which Barry will describe in a moment. Operating income from our mills recycling operations was $32,000,000 significantly higher than sequential first quarter results despite lower realized pricing as volumes increased and the team continues to gain operating efficiencies. As many of you already know, we're the largest North American metals recycler processing and consuming ferrous scrap and non ferrous aluminum, copper and other metals. The team continues to effectively lever the strength of our circular manufacturing model, benefiting both our steel and metals recycling operations and shortly also our aluminum flat rolled operations.

Speaker 3

Our steel fabrication team achieved strong operating income of $181,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, slightly higher than 1st quarter sequential results. Earnings were supported with an 11% increase in shipments, more than compensating for a 5% reduction in realized pricing. Our joists and debt backlog extends to the Q4 of 2024. Infrastructure Inflation Reduction Act, DOE Decarbonization Support and Manufacturing On Shoring are expected to increase domestic fixed asset investment and in turn related to flat and long product steel consumption and joist and deck consumption later this year and in the coming years. A reminder, as we construct the aluminum facilities, non capitalizable expenses are required to flow through SG and A until start up.

Speaker 3

So you'll see increased costs in this line item until we start operations mid-twenty 25. This amount was $19,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. Our supplemental schedule provides visibility as a separate aluminum segment. We estimate that average similar costs approximately $25,000,000 per quarter will occur through the first half of twenty twenty five. We have expectations to be EBITDA positive in the second half of twenty twenty five for our aluminum investments, with plans to initially ramp with industrial type products as we qualify our can sheet and automotive products.

Speaker 3

We expect to be operating the rolling mill at approximately 75% of its capability for the full year 2026 and full thereafter. Mark is going to provide more details related to our ramp and product mix expectations for aluminum investments later on the call as well as our differentiated cost expectations. The construction of the aluminum rolling mill and the San Luis Potosi recycled slab center is going extremely well. We want to reaffirm the total project cost at $2,700,000,000 of which $1,500,000,000 has already been invested through June of 2024. For the remainder of 2024, we expect to invest another $900,000,000 in the aluminum investments.

Speaker 3

And finally, in 2025, the remaining $250,000,000 Our cash generation continues to be strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable cost structure. During the Q2 of 2024, we generated cash flow from operations of $383,000,000 Inventories were moderately higher in the quarter as we increased product ahead of our new value added flat roll coating lines. Additionally, estimated tax payments were $273,000,000 in the quarter, representing a 23% cash tax rate for the first half of the year. We ended the quarter with strong liquidity of $2,700,000,000 comprised of cash and short term investments of $1,500,000,000 and our fully available unsecured revolver of $1,200,000,000 For 2024, we believe total capital investments will be in the range of $2,000,000,000 of which we've already funded $793,000,000 this year. In February, we increased our quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.46 per common share, continuing our positive dividend profile as through cycle cash flow grows.

Speaker 3

We also repurchased $607,000,000 of our common stock in 2024, representing 3% of our outstanding shares. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high return strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment grade credit designation. Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years from an annual average of $540,000,000 to currently $2,900,000,000 excluding our large strategic Stentan and Aluminum Investments. In July, we successfully issued $600,000,000 of 5.375 percent investment grade notes with a 10 year tenure. The proceeds will be used for general purposes and anticipation of repaying our $400,000,000 notes due December 2024.

Speaker 3

We're very pleased with the transaction. We thank those who invested. Lastly, sustainability is a significant part of our long term value creation strategy. In that regard, we remain excited about our joint venture with Amium, a leading producer of renewable biocarbon products. We believe our 1st joint venture facility, which we plan to start commissioning late in Q4, could decrease our SteelScope 1 greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 35 percent.

Speaker 3

We uniquely have an actionable path toward carbon neutrality that is more manageable and we believe considerably less expensive than may lay ahead for many of our industry peers. Our sustainability and carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. Finally, for those of you on the call that track categories of our flat rolled steel shipments, In the Q2, we shipped hot rolled and P and O of 1,004,000 tons, cold rolled products of 124,000 tons and coated products of 1,245,000 tons. Jerry?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Teresa. Our steel fabrication operations performed well in the 2nd quarter, achieving strong earnings and steady volume aligned with Q1 results. The market segments that we participate in influence the mix of joists and deck that we engineer for each job. Our team's ability to engineer and manufacture the best solution for each segment remains a core strength. Our steel fabrication order backlog remains at a healthy level, now extending through the end of the year.

Speaker 4

We continue to have high expectations for the business, continued on shoring and manufacturing, continued with infrastructure spending and fixed asset investment related to the IRA programs should provide momentum for additional construction spending later this year and through 2025. Our steel fabrication platform provides meaningful volume support for our steel operations, critical in softer demand environments, allowing for higher through cycle utilization compared to our peers. It also helps mitigate the financial risk of lower steel prices. Our metals recycling operations improved earnings in the Q2 as increased demand from North American steel producers supported higher ferrous scrap volume more than compensating for the challenging price environment. We believe ferrous scrap prices have stabilized and should remain relatively stable to the rest of the year subject to seasonal moves.

Speaker 4

The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers. In particular, our Mexican recycling locations competitively advantage our Columbus and Sinton raw material positions. They also strategically support increased procurement of aluminum scrap for our future flat rolled aluminum operations. Our metals recycling team is partnering even more closely with both our steel and aluminum teams to expand scrap separation capabilities through both process and technology solutions. This will help mitigate potential prime ferrous scrap supply issues in the future.

Speaker 4

It will also provide us with a significant advantage to materially increase the recycle content in our aluminum flat roll products and increase our earnings potentials. Steel team has a solid quarter achieving shipments of 3,200,000 tons. During the Q2 of 2024, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 78%, while our steel mills operated at a rate of 81%. We consistently operate at higher utilization rates due to our value added steel product diversification, our differentiated customer supply chain solutions and the support of our internal manufacturing businesses. The higher through cycle utilization of our steel mills is a key competitive advantage, supporting our strong and growing cash generation capability and best in class financial metrics.

Speaker 4

Our realized steel pricing declined across product portfolios as prices weakened throughout the Q2. However, value added flat rolled steel pricing spreads remained very resilient during the same timeframe, supporting our earnings as we already are the largest producer of these products in North America. And we are growing with the new addition of 4 coating lines with 1,100,000 tons of additional capacity. Underlying demand remains steady, but customers remain hesitant to place orders due to the continuing decline of scrap prices throughout the quarter. Additionally, a surge in steel imports put pressure on the supply dynamics.

Speaker 4

However, order activity has increased over the last month, especially within the last several weeks, stabilizing our lead times. We believe this is the bottom range for pricing with positive moves in the future. The Sinton Steel team continues to make improvements in operating efficiency and consistency. We are planning for Sinton to see additional improvements in production and profitability as the team took 2 different 4 day outages during the Q2 to, among other things, resolve the transformer limitations we have previously discussed. The outages were necessary to install the necessary additional safety circuits and restore our electrical capacity, which will now allow us to access 100% of our melting capacity versus the previous 80%.

Speaker 4

Also, the additional 2 new value line coating lines it's in were successfully commissioned and commenced operations with great success, improving the mills value added product mix and improving the operating efficiency of the facility. The additional lines will support increased volume and margins as we head through this year. Regarding the steel market environment, North America automotive production estimates for 2024 released recently revised with strong 16,000,000 units with continued growth expected in 2025 and 2026. This forecast is based on demand resilience and stronger production results as supply chain constraints continue to dissipate. Automotive dealer inventories also continue to remain below historical norms despite the recent cyber disruptions.

Speaker 4

Non residential construction remains stable with slowdowns across some building types due to hesitancy around higher interest rates. Additionally, on shoring and infrastructure spending should provide further meaningful support to fixed asset investment and related construction oriented projects in the coming years. As for the energy market, the solar industry continues to grow. It keeps oil and gas activity steady. However, increasing OTCG and line pipe imports created a challenging 2nd quarter environment for the domestic producers.

Speaker 4

Looking forward, we are optimistic regarding steel demand and pricing dynamics for 2024. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, Theresa. Thank you, Barry. I appreciate that. But looking toward our continued growth, our consistently strong through cycle operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies. The 4 value added flat roll steel coating lines are increasing volume and have performed extremely well.

Speaker 2

These types of high return investments are key to our value added product and supply chain differentiation strategies. Regarding CINA's progress, Barry will provide some more information, but the team completed a key task this week. And as we look forward to the rest of the year, we have confidence in increased volume and profitability from them. Our aluminum growth strategy, I believe, is especially compelling. We're achieving fast paced progress on the construction of our aluminum flat rolled investments.

Speaker 2

There continues to be strong commercial support for a new and innovative supply chain solution from Steel Dynamics, where the aluminum industry has come to consider a well known and highly regarded metals producer today. Responses from existing and new customers across the markets still remain incredible. As a quick overview of the project, it's a 650,000 metric ton aluminum flat roll facility in Columbus, Mississippi. So it's a state of the art plant and with an optimized target mix of 300,000 tons of can stock, 1,000 tons of industrial and construction products. On-site melting and casting slab capacity is 600,000 metric tons and be supported by 2 satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers located in UBC scrap rich regions.

Speaker 2

We expanded the project scope to include additional scrap processing and segregation technologies to maximize our aluminum recycle content. Start up plans right now for the rolling mill to start up in mid-twenty 25, the Mexico Slab Center in the Q1 of 20 25 with the U. S. Slab Center coming in online in the second half of twenty twenty five. From an investment premise perspective, I think the market environment today in aluminum is similar to the domestic steel industry when we started SDI 30 years ago.

Speaker 2

It has older assets, it has heavy legacy costs, the mills are somewhat inefficient and high cost operations. As an industry that has difficulty or has had difficulty in earning cost of capital and hence has little investment in facilities and new technologies over time. Different though than the steel environment 30 years ago is that there's an absolute supply deficit, which exists in the market in North America, and that deficit is likely to grow. It's aligned with our business. We can leverage our core competencies of our construction and operational know how, and we can drive performance through our culture, which in turn will drive high efficiency and low cost operation.

Speaker 2

It also levers our Omni recycling footprint. Today, Omni is the largest North American aluminum scrap recycler and has developed some very unique and innovative separation technologies that will considerate the different aluminum supply streams coming to them. So very, very cost effective and a high return growth opportunity for us. The team plans to begin production of slabs in San Luis Potosi, Mexico, as I said in the Q1 of 'twenty five, followed by the commissioning of the rolling mill mid 'twenty five, and those are both on schedule for those days. In 2025, we plan to begin production with a mix heavier weighted to industrial and construction product sectors as we qualify our can sheet and automotive products.

Speaker 2

We believe volumes for the second half of twenty twenty five will be at 50% of capacity, growing to 75% in 2026. Through the 1st 24 months, we will continue to transition the product mix to more can sheet in automotive, targeting the 40 week, 45 percent can sheet, 30%, 35% automotive in probably 2027. We have some key can and auto customers that are keen in helping us achieve the highest quality in a shorter time as possible. And I know our team is up to it. The total project cost, including the recycled slab centers, is $2,700,000,000 and we are confident in the budget.

Speaker 2

Virtually all equipment and construction contracts are complete. And we also expect to add about $650,000,000 to $700,000,000 of through cycle annual EBITDA, plus an additional $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 for the Omni recycling platform. And we are confident in our operating cost assumptions. And some of you have asked us to try and quantify these areas of savings as we've outlined them in the past and help you differentiate our project to the rest of the industry. The most significant savings are in 4 key areas: labor, recycled content, yield and logistics.

Speaker 2

The labor, which makes up in our mind about 35% of the differential, we will have a reduced workforce. We would anticipate somewhere around 7.50 people versus over 1200 or more for a competitive plant today. That comes from an optimized plant layout and material flow. We also have a central automated storage system. So when there'll be no sort of human touch to the product from slab to truck, eliminating a massive amount of material handling and a huge number of folks.

Speaker 2

We'll drive productivity through our culture and our performance based incentives. We obviously will not have the high legacy costs that some, again, existing competitors have today. And I would suggest that there should be no doubt that we can achieve these sorts of things, the productivity levels, etcetera, as we have done in steel over the years. The second differential would be recycled content and that's probably 25% of the differential. We I believe can do that through levering the Omnisource platform.

Speaker 2

Again, they're the largest non ferrous recycler in North America today. And we already have a secondary aluminum operation that we can also lean on. The satellite facilities will also help being close to UBC rich areas. Again, I think the innovative segregation technologies that we've developed actually in house will also allow us to increase the recycled content compared to our competitors. The 3rd area would be yield.

Speaker 2

And I think we're being a little conservative here, but that would be about 20% of the differential. Firstly, obviously, we're going to have just a brand new state of the art facility, which will help for sure. The sculpting technology is an innovative state of the art. It doesn't just rely on just shaving off 0.5 inches or 3 quarters of an inch or whatever off a slab. It measures the profile of the slab, measures the quality of the slab, and we will only take off what is absolutely needed.

Speaker 2

We will also be utilizing through the mill sort of supersized coils. So the less front end tails, etcetera of Utah Square. So I think we're comfortable with a substantial improvement in yield. And then logistics are probably 10% of that. And again, locating the slab satellite slab centers next to or within UBC rich areas, allowing us to melt and cast that material and ship big, heavy, solid slab versus less dense UVC bales and then taking the year loss there is a considerable freight advantage to that.

Speaker 2

But we're excited. And I think that excitement is palpable within our company as our younger generations want to emulate our steel history and revolutionize the North American aluminum market. More generally, we're impassioned by our current and future growth plans as they will continue to drive the high return growth momentum we've consistently demonstrated over the years. Our disciplined intentional organic and acquisition strategy focused on differentiated value added supply chain solutions is providing sustainable cash generation. Near term, the continued Cintana ramp up for new coating lines closely followed by our aluminum strategy, will significantly increase that through cycle cash flow generation.

Speaker 2

And I'm excited looking forward. I believe that market dynamics are in place to support long term demand growth across all our operating platforms. As Teresa mentioned, North America will benefit from continued on shoring of manufacturing businesses and the U. S. Will benefit from the allocation of public monies from infrastructure program, Inflation Act and other public programs.

Speaker 2

Steel Dynamics is lever to benefit from those programs through increased steel joist and deck demand, flat and long product steel demand and the associated higher demand for recycled scrap and aluminum. Furthermore, and I don't believe it should be understated, we were blessed with a best in class carbon footprint. Our integrated peers, both domestic and global, will be spending substantial CapEx to bring their carbon footprint down. Those that are including hydrogen based DRI will also incur additional operating expense of some $200 per ton. This will materially steepen the global cost curve and will support higher product pricing in the future.

Speaker 2

And we, SDI, being at the bottom of the cost curve will effectively expand our long term metal spread through the cycle. In closing, our teams, as I've always said, are our foundation. I thank each of them for their passion and their dedication. We are committed to them and I'll remind them those listening today that safety for yourselves, your families and each other is the highest priority. Our culture and our business model continue to positively differentiate our performance, leading to best in class financial metrics.

Speaker 2

And we are no longer a pure steel company, but an integrated metals business providing enhanced supply chain solutions to the industry, in turn mitigating volatility and cash flow generation through all market cycles. We're competitively positioned and continue to focus on providing superior value for our company, our customers, team members and shareholders alike. We look forward to creating new opportunities for all of us today and in the years ahead. That being said, Matt, would love to listen to or hear and comment on the questions.

Operator

Thank you. Your first question is coming from Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Mark and Theresa. Just wanted to ask you, Mark, can you remind us what is the recycle content that you expect to have in the aluminum project and how that may evolve over

Speaker 2

time? Obviously, well, of course, it depends, to be honest, on the product from a and over time, it will improve, obviously. Our target for the UBC is around about 90% to 95%. Sorry, can sheet, yes, UVC raw material, but for the can sheet, it will be 90%, 95% with a surname of 95%. And I think that to some degree is reliant is achievable because of the segregation technologies that we've developed to get differentiate the 5,000 series from other product.

Speaker 2

The automotive would be lower than that, And I think our aim would be around about 70%.

Speaker 5

All right. So overall, this probably is going to be something closer to 80%, 85%

Speaker 2

then? I've not done the math, but in my head intuitively that sounds right.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners. Your line is live.

Speaker 6

Hello, good morning everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning. For

Speaker 3

blue

Speaker 6

copper shredded scrap, can you provide an update on the processing capacity within the internal network and any ongoing growth initiatives there and where you think that capability might be entering next year?

Speaker 2

I think the question was low carbon trend. Yes, we'll continue to expand that to all our shredding operations. As far as the absolute volume,

Speaker 4

I would just say we in addition to the technologies to segregate the scrap, the ferrous scrap, get the copper residuals out. It requires quite a bit of know how in the melt shop to fully utilize that. So we've been expanding that growth down to our Mississippi mill and also in Descedon. So right now, we have a very healthy mix at our Columbus flat roll or Butler flat roll mill, where we have the requirements we need. So the investments that Omni is making takes that product even further down into the South, where we can get better utilization at the other flat rolled mills.

Speaker 4

So we're very excited about the opportunity and also how to deploy it once it gets to the mills. That's as probably half the problem is how to get it usefully into your mix in the mills and we're making great progress on that as well.

Speaker 6

Are you putting the technology in at the shredding facilities or are you co locating it at the mills?

Speaker 4

To this point, it's at the Schrodinger facilities and it is a series of equipment to pull the value streams out along the way. So not only does it reduce the copper in the actual scrap shred we're sending to the mills, but it also allows us to obtain better recoveries in the other elements coming out of the scrap stream, the Zorba, the Twitch, so forth. So at the facility is the best place to put those. And then right now, that's where our focus is our efforts have been focused.

Speaker 6

Okay. And no current estimates as to how much your capability is for processing that today?

Speaker 2

Can't give you the actual number, but we're confident that we will be able to create a volume that matches our productivity of our machine mills.

Speaker 6

Okay. Appreciate the color there. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane. Your line is live.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on Cintun. I think back in April, you mentioned that you had that maintenance and that the transformer issue kind of was about to be sold.

Speaker 7

But now it seems this issue lasted for longer as you only mentioned that you only got full capability back last week. So if you can explain a little bit of what happened and why it took longer essentially? And also was Sensen EBITDA positive in Q2? And do you expect a significant step up in profitability into Q3? Or is that going to be a much more gradual process given the market conditions?

Speaker 4

On the outage front down in Sinton, the work we had to do took place in the high voltage switchyard. So we bring in transmission voltage in Texas. We're the only facility in the state of Texas that actually brings in 345,000 volts. So in the early April outages, we put the concrete down. It's necessary to support the equipment and made bus modifications.

Speaker 4

And as the equipment arrived, there's this protocol of both testing the equipment, pressurizing it, safely bringing it to a position where you're ready to turn it on. And during that process, required us to have the high voltage also shut off. So as we actually got the equipment fully on-site, fully installed and now turned on the equipment that there's a series of outage that comes along with that. And we kind of identified the kind of the route, the key steps in the process. So we did have a slight delay with the hurricane situation in South Texas.

Speaker 4

And, just out of prudence, we decided to make sure we weren't in the process of messing with our high voltage system when we had hurricane winds. So we're in a much better place now. We're very comfortable that we've addressed the root cause. We put in some new safety gear that works in the electrical world and I that's as deep as I can go and do it myself, a mechanical guy. But we're confident that we're positioned now to really fully utilize the power in the furnace.

Speaker 4

And the teams are practice wise are up to speed. So we do see this as a big key step in getting even more productivity out of the plant.

Speaker 2

If I could add and perhaps further. And we took a little bit of a low blow in an analyst report last night about our performance there at Centum. But I think there needs to be recognition that we're developing the next generation technology down there. It is an absolutely phenomenal technology and it's what the world is going to be using going forward. And the important things such as the product qualities that we wanted to achieve, the improved surface quality, the tougher, higher strength qualities produced through thermal mechanical rolling.

Speaker 2

But the productivity, the design capability from a productivity standpoint is totally proven. We can produce over 5,000 tons a shift down there. So the technology is absolutely there. All we have to do is simply increase the utilization of that facility.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's very clear. And so I guess, Syntyma was not EBITDA positive in Q2, and that means there could be a significant step up in profitability into Q3?

Speaker 3

Tristan, you're correct. So for the Q2, we were basically breakeven from an EBITDA perspective. And so there's very high expectations for the second half of the year as it relates to Cintin.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's very clear. And maybe a quick follow-up on that. On the supply outlook as you bring more volume from Simpson, I mean, if we look at U. S.

Speaker 7

HSE prices, they're down 40 percent from peak and margin on the spot basis. They haven't been that low for a long period of time. So I guess, why do you think that the market can absorb higher volume from Simpson? And have you contemplated instead reducing production or capacity at this time? And lastly, in that type of environment where some of your peers are probably in much more difficult conditions, have you been able to gain market share?

Speaker 4

We're very confident that the products that we offer out of Sytten, as Mark spoke, we had to get new technology to be able to respond to the customer base in that region. We're selling quite a bit of tons into Mexico. And a lot of these tons are heavier, higher strength steels where we find more value. And there are also products that the market needs in that region. So we've been welcomed across the different market segments with the abilities that we brought to the table there.

Speaker 4

So we do see the market being receptive to having a regional supplier. As you know, the import action in that area is particularly different. It's heightened versus the rest of the country. So to have a local supply chain of high value products is welcomed right now for the customer base. And when I say regional, that's Mexico.

Speaker 4

We're a few short hours truck ride into Monterrey. So we continue to see good response, good results down there. And we're being very judicious with our time. We know we will develop new products in the future. But right now, we have a very good offering.

Speaker 4

And with the new value lines, both painted and the galvanized capability, We're able to really penetrate further into the markets where there wasn't local providers before. So we remain real bullish on what the capability in the market is to absorb high value tons from a regional source.

Speaker 2

And to be honest, today, we can sell every time we can produce it. It's not a market restricted shipment number. And I think you also have to look at the incredible growth that will take place in demand growth that will take place in Mexico over the shoring, reshoring, trans shoring, however you want to look at it, the growth then in Mexico, you've got to be there to witness it and experience it is absolutely phenomenal. So the market is going to continue to grow as we anticipated back in, I think 2018, 2019 when we came up with the project in the 1st place.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is

Speaker 8

live. Great. Thank you very much and good morning. I wanted to just one quick follow-up on different take on Stenten. Trying to understand why it's still at 75% guided in your release into second half and not full out?

Speaker 8

And then also, is there an opportunity to boost exports given that Lazarcarnas has been down for, I think, almost 2 months, 1.5 months? Or is there any issue with the trade protections against Mexico? Does that change the dynamic any? Thanks.

Speaker 4

We don't see the trade dynamics changing with Mexico in the short term. There is an effort, of course, to stop the surge, and there's been recent activity on the 232. We anticipate that the products that we're currently moving into Mexico will continue to move that way. There is a shortage in the Mexican market because of other outages that are in Mexico. So we'll continue to take advantage of opportunities where it makes sense.

Speaker 4

And as we look at the total capacity, we like most things in the steel plant, it's not a light switch we just turn on. So as we look towards growing to the second half of the year, we believe as we look at the second half, we're going to achieve those utilization rates.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Katja Janssick from BMO. Your line is live.

Speaker 9

Hi. Maybe going back to the aluminum rolling mill for a bit. I think you mentioned that initially the mix is going to be more tilted to industrial products. Can you talk a little bit is there a margin difference between industrial products, the can sheet and auto market products?

Speaker 2

Yes. The I guess the thinner margins tend to be in Cam Street, if you were to just stack them, again, because of the just the volume of that product. The industrial products, only and particularly if we were to put them through our paint lines are going to be as valuable as any of the outputs.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Andrew Keches from Barclays. Your line is live.

Speaker 10

Yes, morning. Thanks for taking my question. Question for Theresa. Look, you've refinanced the 2024 notes or maybe even some of the 25s. You generally just seem to be in a pretty favorable balance sheet position right now.

Speaker 10

But you've been upgraded by 2 of the agencies in the past year, you got another positive, you threw a lot of the aluminum spending, leverage is still pretty low, and you'll get the cash flow benefit from that probably by the end of 2025 or 2020 6 it sounds like. So I guess just taking a step back, can you just give us an update in terms of what the direction of the balance sheet is from here? Do you see the capacity to carry more leverage, knowing how leverage has been relatively conservative at low pricing points? Or do you want to preserve some optionality for future opportunities? I guess that's a hidden second question on what the pipeline might look like for you.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Thanks for the question. So yes, the balance sheet does have extra capacity for leverage. As you know, ahead of large projects, organic projects specifically like Cinton at just under $2,000,000,000 and now the aluminum investments at $2,700,000,000 we like to be a little more conservative with the balance sheet and build cash, in advance of those investments so that we can make sure that we still have optionality for growth if there would be a downturn, because we like to have that optionality. We tend to get that better value and better valuations and return in a weaker demand environment.

Speaker 3

So there stay consistent and grow the shareholder distributions during these high growth periods, which is very important to us and we think very beneficial to the shareholders as well. So, you will likely see us continue well, you will see us continue with our strong shareholder distributions. There are other opportunities for growth. There are some organic opportunities that the teams are talking about. They're not nearly at the size or scope of aluminum or absent, but they are absolutely beneficial differentiating, high return, etcetera.

Speaker 3

In addition to that, we do believe that there could be some optionality in transactions. We're very particular. We're very disciplined as it relates to acquisitions, ensuring that there is an appropriate valuation and return for Steel Dynamics. So you do see us being more disciplined than some others in the industry. But that being said, we think that there will be some opportunities along those lines as well.

Speaker 3

So I would just say more of the same, yet at the same time, we understand that the balance sheet is there to use.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Your line is live.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, good morning and

Speaker 11

thanks for taking the question. Thanks for the color on the aluminum business. I guess the question is, when do you expect to lock in long term contracts for the rolling mill maybe across the markets? As well as can you qualification timeline for packaging and automotive, those markets? How long will it take to kind of get qualified in those markets?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 2

As we say said earlier, the initial material for qualification of the can sheet and auto will start in 2025. As you can recognize, the consumer base is not necessarily going to dedicate long, long, long contracts at that moment in time. But come the end of 'twenty six, I will expect the longer term contracts, which in those markets are 3, 4 years duration would be in 2026.

Speaker 3

I would just add to that that we have a there's a very extensive both demand draw and plan in place for 20252026 purposely with the numerous number a it's a very robust commercial dialogue that we're having and we feel very confident in having the ability to market those materials in the interim.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Alex Hacking from Citi Investment Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thanks, Mark and Theresa. Just a clarification on the aluminum mill. When you talk about 50% utilization in 25% 75% in 2026, is that the average or that's the exit rate?

Speaker 3

No. For the 2026, Alex, that's not the exit rate. That's for the full year. The exit rate would be close to full capacity in 2026.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from John Tumazos from Variety Independent Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 13

Well, thank you very much. Concerning the total steel market, last year indirect steel imports rose another 3,000,000 tons. And in April May, total steel imports including slabs were 30% share. I didn't get it right. I thought with all the new beautiful new electric furnace steel capacity coming online, Domestic shipments would rise and imports would fall.

Speaker 13

Do you think there's a customer preference for BOSS Furnace Metal? Or do you think domestic pricing in hindsight was just too aggressive, too high? It amazes me when the customers want the foreign steel because the delivery window isn't precise and they have to carry much more inventory and have much more steel price risk, etcetera?

Speaker 2

Well, I think, John, as we see it, the imports, I think, generally for the year, year to date, they're up like 10% or thereabouts. And that the licenses are mitigating a little. The propensity is in coated products. They were up 60% year to date. And obviously, the spread, the hot band, the coated spread is still above $200 or thereabouts.

Speaker 2

And our dear friends, dear fellow are taking advantage of that to some degree.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.

Speaker 5

Thank you. I appreciate the follow-up. I just want to see if you can comment on the pricing for the backlog in the fabrication business. If I heard correctly, the backlog extends into the Q4. Any color that you can offer on the pricing for that material?

Speaker 3

Carlos, we can't be specific about that. I would tell you that from historical basis, it's very strong on a go forward basis. And there has been stabilization in pricing and specifically around the joist products and the decking products as well. So that's all the color we can give you. I apologize.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Chris Lefebena from Jefferies. Your line is live.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. Thanks for my question. Most of my questions have been answered, but I just had one on the cash flow in the Q2 and in particular on the working capital build. How should we think about the reversal of that through the second half of the year? And what portion of that working capital build is a function of the aluminum mill and since it's still ramping up, is some of that going to kind of linger into 2025

Speaker 11

and 2026? Thank you.

Speaker 3

You're welcome. None of it related to really, the aluminum mill at this point in time because we're still constructing. And as it relates to the San Luis Potosi slab center, they're just getting ready to kind of start maybe building some scrap reserves in anticipation of slab production in the Q1 of 2025. As it relates to the build, there was a structural increase in inventories related to the 4 value added lines as we are putting substrate in front of those lines in anticipation of ramping them up during this period of time. And so there will still be some increase as Stenten ramps up the second half of the year structurally, but there is also availability of inventory reduction at the long product steel mills and some of the other areas.

Speaker 3

So I would expect to see working capital not be a significant draw in the second half of the year, but rather potentially be either net neutral or a funding source. The biggest part of the move in cash flow was really our estimated tax payments in the quarter.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks for taking my quick follow-up. I was also asking about cash flows. If we think about the $1,200,000,000 remaining CapEx in the second half, the $400,000,000 debt pay down. I'm just trying to think about if you want to keep the buyback steady as you have over the last several quarters or if there's any shifts that you might make to your capital allocation policy given those big uses of cash? Thanks.

Speaker 3

No, we're very comfortable with our cash flow generation capability. At this point in time, given what we can see, there's no expectation of changing our capital allocation policy for the remainder of the year.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Alex Hacking from Citi Investment Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thanks for taking my follow-up. I'm just curious in your perspective or are you concerned about some of the rhetoric around Mexico and the steel trade with Mexico? The U. S.

Speaker 12

Is a net exporter of flat steel to Mexico, right? Cintin is targeting Mexico for offtake. Are you concerned that some of the rhetoric that's sprung up recently could lead to more tariffs, retaliatory tariffs? And is that a potential risk that you're considering? Or how do you think about that?

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Well, I guess from my

Speaker 2

perspective, there's certainly some noise and perhaps short term aggravations going back and forth. But longer term, as I said earlier, the growth the steel demand growth within Mexico is going to continue to be considerable. They're going to continue to be still short. They're going to need our products. In particular, they're going to need our coated and downstream products, perhaps more a little more so than the hot band.

Speaker 2

But they're going to be still short. And in the big picture, I don't see a material problem there.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Again, thank you, everyone. I just want to close and say, I think STI, it's an incredible company doing incredible things. We couldn't do it without our inspirational teams and their families. We can do it without the support of our loyal customers. We will continue to work with you to create innovative value creating opportunities for you, both of things you need today and what you may not even know you need tomorrow.

Speaker 2

And again, we need the support of our service providers that you folks are integral with everything we do. And for those that are shareholders, thank you for your faith in us. We treat your investment as our own, and we'll continue to grow our company wisely. Thank you. Have a great day.

Speaker 2

Be safe.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and have a great and safe day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Steel Dynamics Q2 2024
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