Harley-Davidson Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 25, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley Davidson 20 24 Second Quarter Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Sean Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning. This is Sean Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley Davidson Investor Relations website. As you might expect, our comments will include forward looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different.

Speaker 1

Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC. Joining me for this morning's call are Harley Davidson Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz also Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root and we have LiveWire's Chief Executive Officer, Karim Denez. With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q2 2024 results. In Q2, consolidated revenue was up 12%, driven by revenue growth of 13% at HDMC and 10% at HDFS. Additionally, we saw a strong improvement in earnings per share to $1.63 for the quarter. Consolidated operating income in the Q2 was $241,000,000 up 9% from the prior year, driven largely by an increase of 21% at HDFS.

Speaker 2

In addition, HDMC operating income was up 2% and the operating loss of LIBORI was $4,000,000 less than a year ago. Through the quarter, we saw the continued impact of the high interest rate environment affecting our industry and in particular big ticket consumer discretionary sectors. That said, retail sales of new motorcycles in the U. S. Were still slightly positive versus prior year with a varying degree of performance from state to state.

Speaker 2

Turning to our global performance, it's important to note that we see a mixed picture also across our international markets. In EMEA, retail sales declined by 1% with certain markets in Central Europe underperforming while others over performed. And in Asia Pacific, Q2 retail sales declined by 16% driven by weakness primarily in China. North America including Canada was down 1% and Latin America was flat. Looking ahead, we are narrowing our retail and wholesale expectations to reflect the current environment.

Speaker 2

We continue to expect that retail units sold and wholesale unit shipments will be balanced by the end of 'twenty four. Dealer inventory should be at similar levels as at the end of last year. This implies a reduction in dealer inventory of approximately 30% versus current levels. This should allow our network to take advantage of opportunities in the market. Being mindful in supporting dealer health following the record levels of profitability in 2021 2022, we expect these shipment reductions to positively impact dealers' floorplan expenses.

Speaker 2

Our performance in the first half of the year continued to be aligned to our hardwired strategic pillar, profit focus with strong mix and notable growth in Turing, especially CVO models despite the challenging market environment in the overall industry. Building on our commitment to invest in our core categories, we've been extremely pleased with the strong response to our new era of touring motorcycles with our 24 in road light and CVO offerings. The product continues to receive a strong reception in the market from the industry, customers, dealers and media alike as it grows awareness globally. Additionally, in the U. S, we saw strong gains in share in the 601 plus cc market at the backdrop of an overall declining industry in Q2 and year to date, while Harley Davidson Touring being up 5.3 percentage points in share and over 11% in unit growth.

Speaker 2

As we look at our customer, our insights tell us that performance is an increasingly important part of being a Harley Davidson rider with 44% of riders considering performance to be the most important feature when purchasing, 73% of owners thinking it's important to own a performance related motorcycle and over 80% of owners seeing an increase in attention paid to performance. Through our involvement in the King of the Bag End Racing series with Harley Davidson riders holding the 1st and third place on the leadership for this season, we continue to celebrate and emphasize performance as a key differentiator for the Harley Davidson lineup. This performance angle has continued to be popular with riders as seen by the strong performance of our ST offering. In addition, we selectively focus on opportunities in segments that we believe have a path to in market success and profitability, capitalizing our brand strength and product capabilities and selectively complements with partnerships. Looking at our partnership with Hero, we continue to be pleased with the reception that the X440 has received since launch and we look forward to exploring further opportunities.

Speaker 2

LiveWire is pioneering the industry for EV motorcycles. However, we are realistic about the overall environment, especially in the U. S. As we detailed at the last quarter, we plan to continue to be improving our investments in driving cost productivity at LiveWire, as you'll hear from Karim. That said, we are also further committing to support LiveWire in lowering the breakeven point.

Speaker 2

We expect further cost reductions to adjust to the overall market environment and to reduce the cash burn of the business in the future. I also wanted to highlight the recent Department of Energy grant of $89,000,000 that Harley Davidson was awarded to invest in our facility in York, Pennsylvania to support its overall operations as well as the manufacture of EV motorcycles for LiveWire. This grant is specifically targeted to strengthen and help expand Harley Davidson manufacturing facility in York to incorporate new paints and assembly equipment, supporting the manufacturing of all of its motorcycles and training of our union workforce, all while providing meaningful community and workforce enhancements. We look forward to working with the Department of Energy to realize this investment into the York facility. Harley Davidson Financial Services or HDFS delivered a strong quarter with a meaningful 20 $3,000,000 or 10 percent revenue increase in Q2.

Speaker 2

This was primarily driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables as well as higher average yields as the portfolio continued to reset over time. Thanks to a growing penetration today, roughly 70 of new and used Harley Davidson motorcycles are being financed through HDFS in North America. But crucially HDFS allows us to understand our customers better through the unique insights and customer dynamics that we've access to. One of those insights that I'd like to call out today is our average age customer profile. As we look back to our HDFS data over the past, we are able to see that the average age of our customers purchasing a motorcycle used and new is about 45.

Speaker 2

This is a fact based metric that stands in contrast to the narrative that has been perpetuated by some commentators. As you can see in the slide that we provided as part of this presentation, the average IH has not moved significantly in the last 10 years and even much beyond. In addition, nearly 30% of HDFS loan originations in the past 5 years were made to customers 35 and younger with 75%, 54% or under. In the average MSRP and the segments we compete in, we continue to expect our customer to age into our product, while building brand awareness and desirability, starting at a much younger age, helped by all our efforts to build new and keep existing riders riding as part of our hardwire strategy. With that said, the hardwire puts customers at the forefront of Harley Davidson's products and experiences and defines customers as people who may dream of motorcycling or just learned to ride a Harley Davidson motorcycle all the way to riders who are deeply passionate about and invested in the Harley Davidson lifestyle and community.

Speaker 2

Within Harley Davidson experiences, we could recognize the important role that events play in bringing our community together. This is especially true with our Harley Owners Group. Earlier this year in Senegalia, Italy, we hosted the 30th European Hawk Rally. This exceeded all our expectations with an estimated 100,000 fans and Harley Owners Group members attending and over 20,000 motorcycles visiting from Europe and beyond. In addition to the many events happening in riding season around the world, we also had a significant presence at Laconia and Born Free, celebrating our customers that are typically younger than our average age.

Speaker 2

Today, CSES kick off our 2nd annual homecoming festival right here in our hometown. We're excited to welcome our community to Milwaukee. Events will be held across our footprint here in the city at our Museum, Product Development Center and Juno Avenue headquarters, including Davidson Park that the Harley Davidson Foundation formerly unveiled just recently. With headliners including Jelly Roll and the Red Hot Chili Peppers performing at Veterans Park, it's going to be a weekend to remember. Now before I turn it over to Karim, I'd like to comment briefly on our performance since initiation of the hardware and subsequent hardware 2.

Speaker 2

Despite the challenging environment, we are pleased with the progress we've continued to make in executing our strategy as we progress towards generating value for our shareholders over the long term. We continue to believe there's meaningful growth potential for the company and we remain focused on realizing that opportunity. We will continue to pursue delivery of our strategic pillars through clear focus with plans to drive significant productivity across the business in addition to evaluating and pursuing selective opportunities and continuous product innovation to drive growth and ridership. And through this process, we'll continue to evaluate our decisions when compared to the wider focus on returning surplus capital to our shareholders. With that in mind and consistent with our capital allocation decisions today, today we are announcing our plan to repurchase $1,000,000,000 in shares.

Speaker 2

Details were announced in our press release that went out earlier today. The dividend policy remains unchanged and the company continues to expect the dividend for the remaining quarters of 2024 to be in line with Q2 and Q1. And with that, I'll hand it over to Karim. Thank you, Yevan. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

We're happy to report that LiveWire continued to attract new riders with a triple digit increase in LiveWire branded unit sales compared to the Q2 of 2023. Retail sales outpaced wholesale again in the Q2, making LiveWire the number 1 on road electric motorcycle retailer in the U. S. For the first half of twenty twenty four. Our market presence continued to grow steadily, especially in Europe, with 2 models, LightWire 1 and Delmar now in market.

Speaker 2

In late June, we also launched basic electric balance bike in the EMEA market to broaden our product offerings and reach new customer segments. Additionally, LiveWire's operating loss improved by 12% compared to the Q2 of 2023, underscoring the company's approach in reducing costs while expanding its product line and market presence. Our cost cutting measures are not just about reducing expenses. They are about driving efficiency and ensuring that we allocate our resources to the areas that matter the most as we continue to work on offering the best value proposition to all our stakeholders considering the current market environment. In the second half of twenty twenty four, LiveWire remains committed to continuous improvement and innovation from our product development to our manufacturing processes.

Speaker 2

We are focused on finding smart and effective ways to operate while reinforcing growth, profitability and category leadership as priorities. And as mentioned by Johan, we are also planning for a significant reduction in cash burn next year with stronger business fundamentals in place and expenses aligned with market reality while continuing to drive awareness and demand. Thank you. And now I hand it over to Jonathan.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Karim, and good morning to all. I plan to start on Page 5 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the consolidated financial results for the Q2 of 2024 and subsequently I will go into further detail on each business segment. As Jochen already commented, consolidated revenue in the Q2 was up 12%, driven by HDMC revenue growth of 13% and HDFS revenue growth of 10%. Consolidated operating income in the Q2 was $241,000,000 up 9% from the prior year period, driven largely by an increase of 21% at HDFS. In addition, HDMC operating income was up 2% and the operating loss at the LiveWire segment was an improvement of $4,000,000 compared to a year ago.

Speaker 3

The consolidated margin in the 2nd quarter was 14.9%, which compares to 15.3% in the prior year period, where HDMC operating income margin was down 155 basis points year over year and HDFS operating margin was improved by 254 basis points. I plan to go into further detail on each business segment's profit and loss drivers in the next section. 2nd quarter earnings per share was $1.63 up 34% and compares to $1.22 last year. As we flip the page to first half results, total consolidated HDI revenue of $3,300,000,000 was up 4% compared to last year. The components of this were at HDMC, revenue increased by 3%, at HDFS, revenue increased by 11%, and at LiveWire, revenue declined by 25%.

Speaker 3

Total consolidated HDI operating income was $504,000,000 which was $87,000,000 lower than the prior year. The components of this were at HEFC operating income of $436,000,000 was 18% lower than prior year, reflecting an operating margin of 15.4 percent in the first half of the year. At HDFS, operating income of $125,000,000 increased by 7% in the first half of the year. And at LiveWire, an operating loss of $57,000,000 was in line with our expectations. Year to date earnings per share was $3.34 up 2% and compares to $3.27 last year.

Speaker 3

Let me turn to Slide 7 and I will aim to be brief here as Jochen earlier provided commentary on both Q2 retail performance by region and recent market share highlights. Dealer inventory at the end of Q2 is up from the levels at the end of Q2 2023 and just slightly down versus levels at the end of Q1, 2024. We believe current dealer inventory and product availability are in largely healthy positions overall as we are in the midst of the important summer riding season in North America and Europe. We continue to prioritize availability and inventory of touring, trike soft fill and CVO motorcycles and ensure our dealers have an appropriate supply. We will talk further about our expectations for both retail and wholesale motorcycles in just a few minutes.

Speaker 3

Looking at revenue, HDMC revenue increased by 13% in Q2, focusing on the key drivers for the quarter. 11 points of growth came from increased wholesale volume at HTMC, where motorcycle shipments in the quarter were ahead of last year by 16%, whereas Q2 2023 shipments were adversely impacted by an unplanned production suspension at our U. S. Manufacturing operations. Four points of decline came from pricing, which includes the impacts of the pricing surcharge elimination, other pricing actions on 2024 model year and sales incentives for only our model year 2023 motorcycles.

Speaker 3

Mix contributed 7 points of growth as we continued to prioritize our most profitable models and markets. And finally, one point of negative impact came from foreign exchange. In Q2, HDMC gross margin was 32.1%, which compares to 34.8% in the prior year. The decrease of approximately 2 70 basis points was driven by lower overall pricing inclusive of the impact of surcharge removal, higher manufacturing and other costs and adverse impacts from foreign exchange. This was partially offset by positive impacts from volume, improved mix and lower raw material prices.

Speaker 3

Let me provide some color on a few of the specific drivers. Pricing has the biggest adverse impact to margin where we priced the all new touring motorcycle strategically and we have additional incentive or promotional spend in Q2 centered on interest rate assistance to consumers on model year 2023 motorcycles only. Improved mix had the biggest positive impact on our margin, where we prioritize the shipment of Touring and CVO motorcycles. Lastly, foreign exchange exposure was unfavorable in Q2 with the largest impact seen in the Japanese yen and euro. In addition, we experienced around 2% of cost inflation on an annualized basis in Q2.

Speaker 3

On the operating expense side, expenses were $12,000,000 higher relative to prior year due to higher spend on regional marketing and warranty costs. In addition, we had some employee exit charges associated with recent select headcount reductions, primarily at the operating expense level. These moves were made in an effort to increase future OpEx productivity. HDNC operating margin came in at 14.7% in Q2 from 16.2% in the prior year. For the first half of the year at HDMC, gross margin was 31.7%, which compares to 35.4% in the prior year's period.

Speaker 3

Operating income was $436,000,000 which was $94,000,000 or 18% lower than prior year. HDMC operating margin of 15.4% through the first half was 3.8 points lower than prior year. The decrease was due to less favorable pricing, manufacturing and foreign exchange. These effects were partially offset by improved mix and a modest increase in volume. In addition, year to date lower margin reflects the deleverage we experienced in Q1 as a result of Q1 twenty twenty four wholesale product, which was produced in Q4 of 2023, where fixed cost per unit were higher due to lower production.

Speaker 3

Lastly, in the first half, operating expenses were $13,000,000 or 3% higher, in line with previous discussion. Before we turn to the next slide, let me give a brief update on our productivity cost program, one of the initiatives identified as part of the hardwire strategy, where we are driving improvement in productivity to eliminate the $400,000,000 of incremental supply chain costs incurred in 2020. To simplify and provide more transparency, we are now excluding leverage from productivity, while still holding our previously communicated multi year target of $400,000,000 which originally included a benefit from leverage of between $50,000,000 $70,000,000 Maintaining the $400,000,000 target without the positive impact of leverage is a testament to the confidence we have in our cost reduction programs. Excluding leverage, we delivered approximately $24,000,000 in 2022 $123,000,000 in 2023. In 2024, we've delivered $50,000,000 through Q2.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 11 now and the Financial Services segment. At Harley Davidson Financial Services, Q2 revenue increased by $23,000,000 or 10%, driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables as well as higher average yields as the portfolio continues to reset over time due to higher base rates caused by Fed rate expansion, which were driving higher interest income. HDFS operating income was $71,000,000 up $12,000,000 or up 21% compared to last year. The Q2 increase was driven by higher interest income and lower provision for credit losses, which were partially offset by increased borrowing costs and higher operating expenses. Total interest expense was up $8,000,000 or up 9% versus the prior year.

Speaker 3

The increase was driven by a higher cost of funds as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market rate debt. In Q2, HDFS's annualized retail credit loss ratio was 3.1%, which compares to an annualized retail credit loss ratio of 2.6% in Q2 2023. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macroeconomic environment and the related customer and industry dynamics. In addition, the retail allowance for credit losses for the Q2 came in at 5.4%, up from 5.3% a year ago and at the same level as the 5.4% at the end of Q1 twenty twenty four. This reflects our best estimate of the current and future retail lending environment.

Speaker 3

Total retail loan originations in Q2 were down 4%, while commercial financing activities were up 52% to $1,400,000,000 Total quarter end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and commercial financing was $8,000,000,000 which was up 7% versus prior year. Turning to Slide 12 and the first half results at HDFS. First half revenue increased by $49,000,000 or 11%. HDFS operating income was $125,000,000 up $8,000,000 or up 7% compared to last year. The first half increase was driven by higher interest income, which more than offset higher borrowing costs, higher provision for credit losses and higher operating expenses.

Speaker 3

For the LiveWire segment, as Karim mentioned, electric motorcycles revenue increased in the Q2 of 2024 compared to the prior year period due to higher unit sales of EV motorcycles in the quarter. At STASIC, the electric balance bike business, revenue was down compared to the prior year, which was expected due to a reduction in third party branded distributor volumes. Selling, engineering and administrative expenses were down $3,000,000 or down 9% in Q2 compared to the prior year. LiveWire operating loss of $28,000,000 $4,000,000 less than a year ago was in line with our expectations as LiveWire continued to invest in new motorcycle models and also actioned initiatives to reduce the overall cost of sales for EV motorcycles. For the first half results at the LiveWire segment, revenue was $11,000,000 down 25% from the prior year as a result of lower revenue at TASIK, the electric balanced bicycle business.

Speaker 3

For the first half of the year, LiveWire sold 2 75 electric motorcycles, which is a triple digit increase over the prior year period. For the period, LiveWire operating loss was $57,000,000 which was in line with our expectations. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley Davidson, Inc. Financial results, we delivered $578,000,000 of operating cash flow in the first half of twenty twenty four, which was up from $411,000,000 in the same period last year. The increase in operating cash flow was due primarily to positive changes in working capital during the first half of twenty twenty four compared to the first half of twenty twenty three, driven by a decrease in inventories during 2024.

Speaker 3

These positive impacts were partially offset by higher net cash outflows related to wholesale finance receivables. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1,800,000,000 which was $327,000,000 higher than at the end of Q2 prior year. This consolidated cash number includes $113,000,000 at LiveWire. Additionally, as part of our capital allocation strategy and in line with our commitment to return capital to our shareholders. In Q2, we bought back 2,900,000 shares of our stock at a cost of $102,000,000 This brings our total amount of shares bought back in the first half of twenty twenty four to 5,500,000 shares of Harley Davidson common stock at a total value of $200,000,000 This compares to 4,100,000 shares at a total value of $156,000,000 in the first half of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 3

We see 2024 not only as a year to balance retail sales and wholesale shipments, but also is a year to improve balance sheet efficiency. As it has become clearer that volume will be toward the lower end of our original expectations, planned production cuts in the back half of the year will be more aggressive than the reductions we envisioned for retail sales and wholesale shipments. This produces a gross margin headwind in Q3 and Q4 that is greater than we originally estimated, but we believe positions the company more appropriately for 2025, frees up additional cash and reduces obsolescence risk on an ongoing basis. We continue to expect that retail units sold and wholesale unit shipments will be balanced by the end of 2024 and we now expect retail and wholesale to be in the range of 163,000 to 168,000 units, retail to be in the range of flat to 3% for the full year, wholesale shipments to be in the range of down 7% to down 10% for the full year. As we look to guidance for the year, there are a number of elements that remain unchanged from the prior quarter, but there are some changes for HDMC and that is where I will begin.

Speaker 3

We now expect revenue to be down in the range of 5% to 9% and this has been narrowed from our previous flat to down 9%. Operating income margin is now projected to come in between 10.6% 11.6% rather than the 12.6% to 13.6% range that we had previously guided to. The downward revision is primarily due to production and wholesale reductions and the impact of leverage. At HDFS, guidance for the full year 2024 remains unchanged, where we expect operating income to be flat to up 5%. At LiveWire, guidance for full year 2024 remains unchanged, where we continue to expect to deliver between 1,000 and 1500 electric motorcycle units and an operating loss in the range of $105,000,000 to 115,000,000 dollars And we continue to expect capital investment in the range of $225,000,000 to $250,000,000 As we look at capital allocation in 2024, our priorities remain to fund profitable growth of the hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously, paying dividends and continuing to execute discretionary share repurchases.

Speaker 3

As Joakim touched on, and this can be seen from our press release earlier today, we are announcing a new plan to repurchase $1,000,000,000 in shares through 2026. We feel this highlights our operating discipline, overall cash flow generation and long term earnings power and is supported by our continued commitment to deliver a 15% operating income margin by the end of 2025. And with that, we'll open it up to Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We also ask that you limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for additional questions. Our first question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess it's a 2 parter. First, what does guidance assume for retail in 2024? And then secondly, bigger picture here, this was a big year for innovation for Harley Davidson and all the product reviews have been really exceptional, but just not seeing the volume flow through like you might have hoped.

Speaker 4

What's your bigger picture assessment of where your consumer is at given you've really offered a very good product

Speaker 3

and it hasn't moved the needle as much

Speaker 4

as maybe you would like?

Speaker 5

Yes, Craig, Jochen. I'll take the two questions. In terms of Retail guidance, we expect 0% to 3% full year guidance. In terms of Innovation, I think it has very much moved the needle if you look at how the market has developed. The overall industry has developed in the second half with most industry players being down high single to mid single digit declines.

Speaker 5

With us in the U. S. Being slightly positive, it certainly has moved the dial significantly. So the innovation is working. Just like with any new motorcycle, it takes time for customers to know about it.

Speaker 5

We think that about 30% of our engaged Harley Davidson owners are now very aware of our new product. But that leaves about 2 thirds of the owners that are not quite well aware of the new bikes yet. And so there's this product will help our business in years to come, which we're very pleased with. And as you said, the reception has been extraordinarily positive. And the product differentiates significantly from our previous touring bikes.

Speaker 5

And we also have a strong product portfolio innovation platform for the coming years as well. So as I think I've said many times before, these bikes that we introduced were initiated with the start of our hardwire Stage 2 strategy and they're at the beginning of more products to come over the coming years. But overall exceptional reception, which I think is showing up already considering the industry and how it's fared in the second quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Perry from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thanks for taking my question here. The HMC op margin came in nicely despite the gross margin pressure in the quarter. Can you just talk about sort of the second half gross margin assumptions? Should we continue to expect pressure from pricing and sales incentives?

Speaker 6

And then it looks like you managed the SG and A expense line quite well. Just maybe talk about what you're doing in the back half there and what we should expect there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

All right. Hi, Alex. So I'm happy to take that. So I think from an op margin perspective overall, we are certainly pleased in terms of where the company is performing, particularly in light of where we are from a production volume perspective. I think we've talked with you a little bit about that previously.

Speaker 3

As we think about some of the actions that we've taken as a company, we certainly are making sure that we're kind of moving through that P and L, looking at places that we can make sure that we are intelligent in taking costs out of the business in a way that doesn't do anything to harm the long term nature of the business and really allows us to maximize current results. We certainly have kind of instituted a little bit of belt tightening for 2024. You saw that through the employee related costs that we talked about. As we move through the back half of the year, You obviously see some of that benefit begin to unlock from an OpEx perspective. And then in addition, we have a number of investments that we've made in the manufacturing and cost of sales side in order to make sure that we are working collaboratively with suppliers to reduce and remove costs from motorcycles in a way that obviously is transparent from a consumer perspective.

Speaker 3

And so as we look at all of that, that's where we updated our overall guide from an OI perspective. And so you see that flow into the decision that we made and what we updated.

Speaker 6

Perfect. That's really helpful. Best of luck going forward.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Hardiman from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. So a couple of retail questions. How did that trend over the course of the quarter? I think we've seen across powersports, some sort of tipping point where consumers seem to be pushing back even more so than they were earlier in the year. And I guess in the context of your guidance, I think year to date your retail is down about 2%.

Speaker 7

And yet the full year guidance, I think you just said, Joakim, is flat to up 3%. So that seems to imply retail growth in the second half. Help us understand why you feel comfortable with that assumption, particularly as we get further away from the model year 2024 launch?

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning, James. I'll take the first question. The trend over the quarter was extraordinarily consistent if I look at the U. S.

Speaker 5

Market. We did not trend throughout the quarter in any month negative. So very consistent if you look at the 3 months of Q2.

Speaker 3

Sure. James, I can talk a little bit about kind of our back half view. So as we go through and we take a look at how 2023 developed and then kind of how that flows into 2024, From a year over year comp perspective, our toughest comp, as we've kind of looked back on last year was really around the way that we performed at retail in Q2. As we move into Q3 and Q4, we feel pretty confident in light of just refreshing our guidance and putting that out there. We're pretty pleased that the reaction that we've had from a CBO perspective, Certainly pleased with kind of consumer and dealer reaction to RoadGlide.

Speaker 3

We have good availability of inventory with trikes and things of that nature. So overall, we actually feel like we're pretty well positioned. If you recall about 12 months ago, we were talking through some challenge that we had from a production disruption standpoint. We're really pleased with the work that's being done within our manufacturing and supply chain team. We have a lot of consistency from a manufacturing perspective.

Speaker 3

That certainly wasn't the case a year ago. So the level of confidence that we have as we look at the comps and then as we look at the way that we're kind of running internally, you put all of that together and with the dealer network, we have a lot of confidence in the numbers that we put forward and what we think the back half of the year will produce.

Speaker 2

Got it. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Two questions related to retail. One is, it looks like your touring market share maybe was down sequentially in Q2 versus Q1. If you could give us a little color on what's going on competitively there that may have caused that shift? And then just a follow-up on your comments about retail in Q2, if it was sort of consistent.

Speaker 8

Given how much disruption there was for sort of the last 2 months of June like June of last year and June of the prior year, It seems like June should have had a much better performance year over year than maybe the other 2 months. So is does that concern you that you didn't see that in June? And what would have been probably one of the easiest comps of many months that Harley's had? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yes, Robin, thank you. Welcome. In terms of market share, our touring market share was very strong in the Q2. We had a significant increase as I had mentioned in our press statement and in my speech. So I'm talking globally.

Speaker 5

We have to consider that the touring the new touring motorcycles only started flowing into the international markets in May. So they had less time to settle in. And the Touring segment internationally is only 25% of the total, while in the U. S, it's significantly higher than that. In terms of the as Jonathan mentioned, our comps in Q2 were much tougher than in the back half because we had positive retail in the Q2 of last year.

Speaker 5

So we are comping a strong quarter. And the production disruption that we've seen pretty much materialized mostly in July of last year. So it's the effect of the closure of the manufacturing facility didn't really impact our shipments significantly in the Q2 or in June of last year. So we wouldn't have expected that to have materially impacted our comps versus the previous year. So overall, if you look at the entire quarter, it's you always hope for more, but considering where the industry is, we are very pleased and we've taken significant market share in the Touring segment.

Speaker 5

And I think that's a real positive.

Speaker 3

Yes. And Robin, the only piece that I would add too is that we are pretty pleased with what we're seeing in terms of total touring and total CDO volume. So from our perspective, we feel pretty confident in where we are for all of the elements that Joakim talked about, all the reasons that he talked about and the share gains that we're seeing.

Speaker 5

I think one interesting statistic that I'd be happy to throw out here, we talked about average age, right, the 45 with the slide that we provided in our deck. If you look at the HDFS data and the average income, we've actually seen a continuous growth in average income per Harley user. So that's a positive sign. And if you just look at new, not just new and used, the new customer sort of average income is actually 15% higher than 5 years ago with over $100,000 So we are seeing trending up in the overall average income of our customers, which we consider to be positive.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 9

So earlier you mentioned that you expect dealer inventory to come down. I think you said 30% in the second half and about flat with last year. When you talk to your dealers, would they like that number to come down even further? Because I'm sure that the dollar value of their inventory is higher than it was pre COVID, particularly on a per dealer basis And interest rates are obviously much higher. So I'm curious what you're hearing from dealers if they want that number to come down even further in

Speaker 2

2025? Well, most

Speaker 5

of our dealers are only starting to see the back the shipments that are starting to flow into the dealerships in the Q3. But I'd say overall, we've had minimal pushback. And if there was a pushback, we would reallocate that product elsewhere. The 30% is a global average. We actually expect the inventory in the U.

Speaker 5

S. To come down by approximately 35% versus year to date towards the end of the year. So the U. S. Dealers will actually see a further reduction.

Speaker 5

From our perspective, this is pretty significant. And I think the dealers will feel that also starting now that the shipments are actually going down significantly. That said, we wanted to be well prepared for our peak season in the coming couple of months and we are well prepared. We had no production issues significant production issues at all. And so the dealer is well stocked.

Speaker 5

Obviously, floor plan is a consideration given the higher interest rates and the higher dollar values, which thankfully HDFS is also able to finance. But overall, we think that the reductions that we are have implemented already and that are going to be visible to our dealers going forward is pretty significant with a 35% decline versus current stay.

Speaker 9

Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just a follow-up on that. The outlook for retail growth in the second half, maybe give us an idea of what you're seeing in July?

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean we've look I don't want to really comment on current trading. We're 3 weeks in months, although in the Q2 everything was pretty consistent. We also were lapping the production closed down in July of last year. Everything that we are seeing now has been factored into the into our full year guidance.

Speaker 5

And but I'd prefer from a year going forward not to really talk about current trading because it is overall always quite volatile. But rest assured that current trading has been incorporated in our full year guidance.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brandon Walley from D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, just on your dealer network, we picked up on some more dealership closures throughout the quarter. Can you talk about where you feel like your dealer network is right now and how these closures will impact overall future profitability for HDMC? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thank you, Brandon. So I'll start. And I think a dealer closure perspective, we certainly look to make sure that we are working to refine the dealer network, get locations set up in the right way and do that in a manner that really allows the surrounding dealers, all of our entrepreneurial partners to be profitable and really generate business return that makes sense for them. So as we look, I think a couple of things.

Speaker 3

One, from a Harley Davidson Motor Company Harley shareholder standpoint, we certainly are thoughtful in making sure that we have the right locations in place, that we're reaching the consumers that we need to and that we have a path toward ensuring that we're fulfilling the needs of our customers and our riders. And then we also look from a dealer lens and really think through from a dealer partner perspective. Are we building a network that's profitable, sustainable and there from a long term standpoint? And we feel pretty good about the way that we're partnering with the dealer network and the way that we're allowing them to generate returns over time. So overall, I think, yes, you'll continue to see us be opportunistic in finding the right path from an overall dealer network design standpoint.

Speaker 3

And we will make sure that we do that in a way that doesn't negatively harm Harley Davidson shareholders. So we are ensuring that we are really developing the optimal distribution footprint. And then we do that with our dealer partners in mind too to ensure that they are generating a return that makes sense for their investment.

Speaker 10

Great. And just one more question. We receive a lot of incoming questions about maybe your ability to keep innovating. Obviously, this was a big refresh this year within the touring lineup. But what gives you confidence or what can you leverage from what you've learned this year to continue innovating and providing new lineups that resonate with your core consumer?

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, we have a product portfolio plan that spans over many years, which we've initiated in 2021 with a hardwire strategy and that is going to flow into the market in the coming years. So we feel very good about it. Most importantly, this touring launch is significant. You know that the previous platform has not been updated for well over 10 years.

Speaker 5

And this product is distinctively different to anything out there. So it makes everything out there that is not our new touring bikes look dated. And we believe that that will help us in years to come. But that said, there's more innovation coming over the next few years. So we feel quite good about the pipeline that we have in place.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just first, on HDFS, how are you guys feeling about the

Speaker 3

health of the book?

Speaker 12

And

Speaker 11

then our annualized retail credit losses kind of where you expected them to be, right now. And then second, if you could just kind of touch on, maybe any market dynamics that you're seeing that differ overseas? I know APAC was a bit softer. I think some of the other regions were pretty similar to North America. So any color there would be helpful.

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Go ahead, Jochen. Sorry.

Speaker 5

No, that's fine. Sorry, I'm starting from the back. So market dynamics, I mentioned Asia, obviously, the one outlier there in terms of retail decline, significantly impacted by China. Asia was growing 6 quarters in a row. Now it's the 4th quarter down.

Speaker 5

Obviously, not pleased with that, but that's I can with certainty attribute to the overall difficult market environment in particular in China and in some Southeast Asian markets. So I think that's the if you look at the retail data, that's the one region overall that has had a much tougher time, but also had seen significant growth well before that decline happened.

Speaker 3

Okay. All right, Noah. And then on to the HDFS side of things. So from an overall HDFS health perspective, you've seen where we are from an overall allowance standpoint. You can compare that back to where we were at time of CECL and you can see that we're pretty we think that we're pretty thoughtful and in a good position from an overall reserve standpoint and well positioned on that front.

Speaker 3

As we think about what we're seeing on the delinquency and loss side of the equation, Overall consumer delinquency is a little bit higher than where we would optimally like it to be, but we feel that the HDFS team is doing a great job of really controlling delinquency and then working with customers. And from an and then as you kind of look at how that translates through to an overall loss perspective, losses are broadly in line with sort of a seasonality curve that we would often see, particularly in sort of this credit environment. When we go off and compare to auto lenders and do some benchmarking there, We actually feel pretty good about the way that the HDFS team is performing, the way that the portfolio is performing. The other piece that we always make sure that we take a look at from an HDFS standpoint is how are things like losses in reserve moving relative to revenue. And so overall, again, we remain pleased with how the HDFS business in total is performing.

Speaker 3

And you see that from our guidance where we've affirmed or confirmed our guidance that we started the year with. So broadly in line with where we thought the year would unfold.

Speaker 5

And I think Noah, just to add on to what I said earlier and to answer your question about what are we seeing in various markets. I mentioned in my speech that we there is no consistency across markets. We have if you take EMEA as a region, you have some markets that are particularly strong such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and you have some markets that are not doing so great such as Germany and France. And so there is not and then in the U. S, there's also varying degrees.

Speaker 5

Some markets are up significantly, other markets are down. So there's no consistency overall where every market sort of performs equally, which is quite interesting to see that. And much of that we believe also has its roots in the economic development in some of those markets and states as well.

Speaker 3

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas Martin from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Good morning. I was wondering, can you provide a breakdown of how much of your channel inventory is modeled your 24s versus 23s? And then I was also kind of wondering what promotional levers you have kind of for the rest of the year if you do need to provide a little juice to hit your inventory decline targets? Thanks.

Speaker 5

So as you have probably seen, we have not we are not promoting our 2023 model year with the exception of our 3.99 promotion, which is basically something we've had in market for quite some time. And so there are no more promotions. The reason for that is because there's minimal levels of inventories of 23s in the market that some dealers actually want to have bringing customers into their dealership, but we stopped promoting Model Year 23 for that reason. We are pretty much the only company out there that does not promote 2024s. I'm sure you've noticed that as well.

Speaker 5

We're not going to comment on what's going to happen in the second half. We're obviously watching things carefully, but at this point, there's no promotions active for model year 2024.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then if I could just kind of sneak 1 in there. The average age charge you posted, is that in line with where you want it to be? And kind of if we look out a couple of years, how do you think that's going to trend? Thanks.

Speaker 5

I think, yes, as an average, I think that's quite healthy considering that as we've always said or I've always said, you kind of age into the brand, right? I mean, when I was started riding at 16 or 18, I was dreaming of owning a Harley Davidson, but I couldn't afford it. And so it comes later in life. It's even if the profile in the U. S.

Speaker 5

Might be a little bit different and you come in a little bit earlier in the U. S. Market. But the consistency I think is fine. We're happy with that based on the data we have that makes us even younger than some other brands in the market, established brands in the market.

Speaker 5

And the fact that the average income has gone up is also positive. That said, 35% younger, that's 30% of our loan origination volume. That's considerable, 35% younger. And 75% of our customers are under 54%. So that is not the issue from our perspective.

Speaker 5

You always want to trend Yangon, but you also have to recognize we're premium motorcycle manufacturer with the highest MSRP in the market. And obviously, that has also an effect in terms of the face affordability and what someone can afford at what life stage and that's what automatically leads you to a higher average age also considering that our bikes are big bikes 601 plus cc. So this is not something you're necessarily right when you're 18 if you can afford it. So I think the consistency in itself and if I expanded that data beyond 10 years, it would actually that curve would stay pretty flat even well beyond the 10 year horizon. I think it's an important information for the market that we thought we would share with you.

Speaker 2

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our last question today will come from Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Good morning. I'm wondering if the updated operating margin guidance, if that is really just reflecting the deleverage from a production and a fixed cost absorption perspective or if you're actually earmarking or planning for some incremental dealer support costs. I know you've given some specific numbers earlier in the year for dealer support for noncurrents, but I'm wondering if the plan is that the updated margins could include some incremental promo from here too.

Speaker 3

Yes. Okay. So Fred, I'll take that one. And I think great question. Thank you for the question.

Speaker 3

As you go through and you look at the impact from an OI margin perspective, it is primarily due to the impacts of leverage. So as we think about where we are from an overall production perspective, as we talked about, we did make sure that we adjusted guidance for where we're going. We are also being extremely thoughtful in overall inventory levels that we're running. And so we're working hard to make sure that we're actually kind of moving through company inventory in a way that makes sense, thinking about where dealer inventory sits, ensuring that our dealers are well positioned to take advantage of retail. But we want to make sure that we are very thoughtful in the levels of inventory they have in light of Fed base rates.

Speaker 3

And so as you kind of take that all the way back to sort of the direct answer to your question, it really is production volume, the impact from leverage that really drives our OI performance. Again, as you heard us touch on 2, we actually feel very, very confident in our long term OI margin and where we're going. And so you saw our commitment to that from a long term standpoint too.

Speaker 12

Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 3

You're welcome. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Harley-Davidson Q2 2024
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