Genius Sports Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Liz, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Chinese Sports Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Results Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Genius Boards. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning. Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility for updating forward looking statements. Any such statements should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements in our earnings release and risk factor discussions in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 20 F filed with the SEC on March 15, 2024. During the call, management will also discuss certain non GAAP measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating Genius' operating performance.

Speaker 1

These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for Genius' financial results prepared in accordance with U. S. GAAP. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable U. S.

Speaker 1

GAAP measures is available in our earnings press release and our earnings presentation, which can be found on our website at investors. Geniussports.com. With that, I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Lauch.

Speaker 2

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to continue our momentum through the first half of the year, and we remain optimistic for the second half of the year as we expect to step up our growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA and cash flow. On today's call, I'd like to clearly cover a few topics which have been top of mind, including data rights, our unique technology scale and our strong commercial position in the U. S. But first, I'd like to quickly highlight our results from the quarter with group revenue of $95,000,000 exceeding expectations and adjusted EBITDA of $21,000,000 representing a 33% year on year growth and nearly 400 basis points of margin expansion to 22% for the quarter, which is in line with our guidance.

Speaker 2

The momentum behind the business has never been stronger, and our growth has been driven by our expanding technology footprint and our ability to sell value enhancing products, services and content across the entire sports ecosystem. This also gives us the confidence to raise our group revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $510,000,000 $85,000,000 respectively. Next, we have officially extended our exclusive data partnership with the Football Data Co, the rights holder of UK football, including the English Premier League, which is one of the most bet on sports in the world. We have now secured these data rights exclusively for the next 5 years through 2029 on commercial terms that are well within our range of expectations. This cost visibility, combined with our strengthened positions in the sports betting supply chain, now gives us even greater confidence in our near and medium term outlook.

Speaker 2

It's also important to highlight that our Football Data Co extension perfectly demonstrates the success of our commercial strategy, which is led by our unique technology offering. Our next gen data, which can only be captured using our AI technology, provides the foundation for an unmatched level of game analysis, immersive experiences and infinite ways to reach and engage sports fans. UK football leagues rely on this technology to power several initiatives spanning betting, officiating, broadcast, fan engagement and more. As the most recent examples of this, we can today confirm that we have been selected by the English Premier League to deploy our semi automated offside tracking technology in a landmark partnership designed to enhance the match experience of players, officials and fans. This off-site technology is only available through Genius' complete unique computer vision and AI capabilities, which will be showcased in much greater detail as we get closer to the season.

Speaker 2

We have also launched the first ever EFL Fantasy Football game, giving the English Football League another tool to engage fans and gain further insights on its digital audience. Within one day, our EFL Fantasy app became the number one downloaded sports app in the U. K. IOS App Store and number 2 for all free apps. These technology led initiatives further embed Genius Sports across the digital ecosystem of UK football.

Speaker 2

Importantly, this also unlocks new revenue streams beyond sports betting alone. We will give specific 2025 guidance in due course, but as a base case, we want to be clear that this extended partnership now positions our business for continued margin expansion and cash flow growth on an annual basis through at least the end of the decade. As it relates to data rights moving forward, it is also worth noting that we are operating in an increasingly dual ballistic competitive environment. As we sit here today, all the major global data rights sit with only the 2 largest players for the balance of the decade. This was not the case a few years ago, where a more fragmented market led to greater competition with both rights holders as well as sportsbooks.

Speaker 2

We expect reduced competitive tension moving forward, which should support a more stable and predictable operating landscape. That said, technology is still a key reason why leagues and federations choose to work with Genius Sports, and this is how we successfully retain major rights agreements at improved prices over time. As the world of sports and fan engagement quickly shifts to the digital realm, we are empowering leagues to stay ahead of the technology curve. Our computer vision and AI technology, for example, enables new types of data which have never ever been collected, analyzed and distributed at the speed and scale at which we are capable of today. This next gen data has many use cases which are already being applied in the market.

Speaker 2

We are revolutionizing fan experiences, activating sponsorship opportunities, augmenting live broadcasts, creating new advertising inventory, innovating sports betting interfaces, unlocking new performance insights and so much more. This is exactly why leagues and federations choose to extend and often expand their partnerships with Genius Sports. We have proven this strategy with the 2 most important data rights in the world, the NFL and now with Football Data Co. Additionally, Genius Sports has become the trusted technology partner for top tier organizations such as FIBA, the WNBA and most recently UEFA, which will see our computer vision and AI technology installed in over 140 European football venues, creating the technical infrastructure, not just for UEFA, but for other European football clubs who also use these venues. With this, we are now turning a significant corner on the distribution of our technology, which categorically proves the wide scale adoption from the most well respected leagues and federations in the world.

Speaker 2

These deep technology integrations underpin the entire business model and set the foundation for continued monetization across the betting and media products I mentioned a moment ago. This brings me to the next topic, which is our U. S. Sports book partnerships. We understand investors have been focused on these contract renewals, so I would like to share my thoughts on this call.

Speaker 2

I will not get into specific details of individual contracts, some of which are signed, some of which are ongoing as expected, and a few that may be signed a few days into the NFL season as is typical. But let me remind you that we have a monumental commercial position in the U. S. Sports betting ecosystem, given the importance of our data to U. S.

Speaker 2

Sportsbooks. We have developed a strong suite of products to amplify the value of our data for the NFL, English Premier League, and the other events that we offer annually. Our ability to cross sell additional content and services, increase our utilization and gradually grow our share of wallet over time is exactly how we've sustained 20% plus revenue growth over the last years, which we expect will continue for the foreseeable future. So despite the increased investor focus on this topic, we will categorize this as business as usual, and we are happy with how these negotiations are progressing, and so far, nothing has surprised us. As always, our goal is to support the continued growth and success of our sportsbook partners, and we are now providing more tools to help them acquire customers, engage them on the platform for longer and offer more innovative products than ever before.

Speaker 2

We are fully committed to their success, and our revenue model is structured in a way that supports growth at least in line with U. S. GGR and our sports book partners, if not modestly outpacing that growth rate. So we have many reasons to feel confident about this process, not least of which is that we are completely aligned with the NFL, who own 8% of our business and who support us in the wide range of data driven and tech enabled products that we're offering. We suggest you keep this framework in mind as we progress through the renewal process with U.

Speaker 2

S. Sportsbooks. With that in mind, we feel confident in the outlook for the remainder of this year as the business is well positioned to continue benefiting from multiple structural growth drivers. Our increased 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $510,000,000 $85,000,000 respectively, represents an annual revenue growth rate of 23%, up from 21% last year and 400 basis points of margin expansion, bringing us a meaningful step closer to our long term margin target in excess of 30%. Additionally, we reiterate our expectation to be cash flow positive for the full year 2024.

Speaker 2

Before turning the call to Nick, I want to reiterate that we now have much greater visibility and confidence in our ability to continue expanding margins and generating significant free cash flow per share in the years ahead. We've solidified our most important rights deals through the end of the decade, strengthened our position in the sports betting supply chain and continued to lay the foundation for future technology driven products across the full sports ecosystem, thus reinforcing our long term competitive advantages. We are excited to continue this strong business momentum, which will support our financial flexibility for many years to come. I will now turn the call to Nick to discuss our quarterly results and guidance in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mark. As a reminder, Q2 is our most predictable quarter in the fiscal year. Given the quieter sporting calendar in the summer months, we earn a bit less from our U. S. Revenue share contracts on the betting products and we managed lower overall media spend since this is also somewhat dependent on live sports content.

Speaker 3

Therefore, most revenue in the quarter is derived from fixed fee contracts outside of the U. S, where we have much higher predictability. So our results were largely in line with our expectations for the quarter. With that in mind, our group revenue growth was primarily driven by our betting revenue, which represented 70% of our total revenue in the quarter and increased 18% year on year. Media revenue was largely unchanged year on year given the quieter sporting calendar and lower overall marketing spend relative to other courses throughout the year.

Speaker 3

Sports revenues were slightly lower year on year. And as we've mentioned in prior quarters, we view Sports Technology as an enabler for the rest of the business rather than a revenue driver on its own. Our suite of sports technology solutions helps us deepen our lead partnerships, spanning several tech enabled initiatives, which we then monetize as betting and media products. Moving on to our profitability. We delivered a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2, which represents our highest quarterly margin in 4 years.

Speaker 3

This was due to disciplined cost control and operating expenses, inclusive of cost of revenue that were held relatively in line compared to our revenue growth. This also demonstrates the consistent margin expansion in our business model as we have grown our margins from 9% in Q2 2021 to 12% in 2022 to 18% in 2023 and now 22% in 2024. Turning to guidance. Hopefully, you now have a better appreciation of the underlying strength in the business and the confidence we have for the remainder of the year. In fact, we believe the second half of twenty twenty four is a strong demonstration of our profitability growth and operating leverage.

Speaker 3

This is because H2 and Q4 specifically represents the peak sporting calendar. What this means is we realized the revenue benefit from a full sporting calendar, inclusive of NFL, UK Soccer and many others. We also incur the full annual increase in rights fees, which are recognized during the seasons and contractually increased by a predetermined amount in each year. As you can see, we have constantly demonstrated the operating leverage of the business model in Q3 and Q4 for each of the last two years and expect to continue this trajectory in 2024 as well. Look no further than our H2 guidance, which implies revenue growth of 29% compared to H2 of 2023 and our adjusted EBITDA nearly doubling over that same period.

Speaker 3

Importantly, we also expect meaningful cash flow in the second half of this year. Particularly in Q4, we expect to grow revenue by over 30% year on year and our adjusted EBITDA by 2.5x, resulting in nearly 900 bps of margin expansion. On an annual basis, we expect this to culminate in our 4th consecutive year exceeding 20% revenue growth. Based on the fundamental business momentum and overall industry growth, we expect to sustain this pace for the foreseeable future. To conclude, Q2 marks another quarter of consistent execution, both strategically and financially.

Speaker 3

We have secured our most important rights agreements for a long period of time, expanded our technology footprint and bolstered our product offerings across the ecosystem of sports, betting, media and broadcast. We remain confident and excited for the remainder of the year as we expect to benefit from multiple growth drivers, particularly in the U. S. And moving forward, our business is now better positioned than ever for continued revenue growth, margin expansion and cash flow generation. With that, we'll now conclude our prepared remarks and open the line to Q and A.

Speaker 4

Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good day guys. I want to start on the guidance question. I know you're not talking specifically on customer renewals, but directionally from an overall basis, it implies given the acceleration revenue growth in Q4 that pricing seems to be improving with those renewals or conversations. I guess, are you willing to comment on that? And then secondly, with BetVision, you had 4 customers last year.

Speaker 5

DraftKings said they're going to add Bet and Watch for the upcoming NFL season. I guess given the customer said it, are you willing to comment or talk about that

Speaker 6

So in customer renewals, I mean, bluntly, everything is going exactly as we expected. There's just no surprises here. We are progressing. Some are signed, some are in progress. As we've always said, some will probably be signed a little bit into the new NFL season.

Speaker 6

But we're not surprised at anything that's going on. On PetVision, look, the product last year, as we said, at the time, which our kind of 1.0 product. It was a trial. We've been doing a lot

Speaker 7

of work on it and there's

Speaker 6

a lot of improvements. We're rolling it out to a new set of customers over the next period. And there's also a lot of new exciting features. So tune in when you see it live on the site.

Speaker 5

And for my follow-up question, just curious if you can talk about TrendGenius and your partnership with X and how that maybe is starting? I know it's early, but with the Olympics and kind of where you see that product potentially going?

Speaker 7

Yes, sure. I mean,

Speaker 6

look, this is really just another way to monetize the data and another way to monetizing our platform. It You've

Speaker 5

heard

Speaker 6

me

Speaker 7

talk about

Speaker 6

it before. So it's really just the start of, the You've heard me talk about it before. So it's really just the start of a rollout of new customer work. I mean, it's quite interesting that over the last, I guess, couple of years, you guys have heard us and me especially talk about a lot of things, investment in technology, investment in new products. And really, what we're doing now is a result of our focus on execution over the last of years is rolling them out.

Speaker 6

You're seeing it here with the Avtex side. You're seeing it with the SOAP release, which I'm sure I'll get a question on in a minute. You're seeing it in the betting front. We've increased our betting tech revenue as a result of the launch of Edge. So really a lot of the investments we've been making in technology and a lot of the rollout are now coming to fruition, which is really sort of driving the business and again improving our investment and our thesis that we've so long talked about.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Mark. Nice job, guys.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Bernie MacTiernan with Needham and Company. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Both Mark and Nick, you guys both made comments just in terms of the outlook for revenue growth and maintaining these strong rates. That's if you're able to maintain 20% revenue growth even just next year, that's above our expectation. So could you maybe talk about what the major drivers are, whether it's the expected U.

Speaker 8

S. Renewals, whether what you guys are seeing internationally, just to help us wrap our heads around if this business can really sustain 20% plus growth?

Speaker 6

Yes. Good to hear from you. Look, we're really pleased with how things are going. And we're, obviously, as you can probably tell, super optimistic about the future. Really, where it's coming from is everywhere.

Speaker 6

All of the investments I just sort of talked about, it's starting to come through. Obviously, our renegotiations are going well. We're just really nicely positioned. And as I said, the focus that we've had over the last couple of years on execution is really looking to drive both revenue and margin growth over the coming period. So we're feeling good.

Speaker 8

Understood. And maybe at the risk of opening Pandora's Box again, but with the 2 largest deals now in place, any kind of parameters that you guys could provide in terms of what you expect rights cost to grow at through 'twenty eight?

Speaker 7

Yes. It's a really good question. I think, look,

Speaker 6

I'm going to be slightly done and just repeat what I've said probably dozens of times before on these calls is that we've really got everything we need. On the right we've got probably the 2 most important global rights locked up now for a really long period. And we've got another set of strategic rights that we feel very, very strong about, including things like CEVA on a very long term basis as well. So from the right space, as I look at it, we're not really compelled to do anything in terms of new rights deals or adding. So as far as I'm concerned, our main focus on is our main focus is on, sorry, driving cash flow, driving margin and really focusing on doing deals that make sense for the shareholders.

Speaker 6

And what that really means is that means doing deals that make sense. And make sense means that they're profitable, they're accretive and they really drive margin. So we're very we're in a very fortunate position now where we can be very, very picky and really be laser focused on shareholder value.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And your next question comes from

Speaker 7

the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. Two questions. One is, I saw in the filing this morning you've changed your functional currency. I'm just wondering how did that change the revenue and EBITDA guidance this morning, the impact from the change in your functional currency?

Speaker 4

And then my other question, just wanted to dig a little bit into EBITDA. Just looking at your net loss widens by $10,000,000 year over year, but your significantly year over year and I think about $10,000,000 more stock based comp line was up significantly year over year and I think about $10,000,000 more stock based comping added back than what you had kind of suggested would be the quarterly cadence. So just since some of your vendor expenses you pay with equity, giving equity and shares to vendors or equity instruments, I guess, as your footnote said. Can you just clarify how much of that stock based comp add back is employee stock based comp versus versus using it to pay vendors just to kind of think about why that line may have come in so much higher? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Robin, it's Nick. I'll kind of take this in reverse orders. First of all, there's no stock based comp prevent us at all. That's 0 in that number. You're right, the numbers is higher in Q2 this year than it was last year, and that's really substantially a timing issue.

Speaker 3

We've issued the LTIP management program in 2024. We actually issued that in Q2 this year. We issued it in April. When you compare it to 2023, we actually issued it in Q4. So you sort of said not quite comparing like with like.

Speaker 3

So what this means is that a lot of that Q2 increment has actually reversed in Q4. For example, I'm forecasting Q4 this year, stock based comp to be around about an $8,000,000 charge, where last year, it was a $16,000,000 charge. So you can see that reversing out. On the functional currency, so I will refrain from getting too accounting technical, but first of all, it has no impact on EBITDA or revenues at all in the numbers. All it really is, is as we become more of a dollar denominated business with our switch to U.

Speaker 3

S. Revenues continue to increase as do our cost base continues to increase in U. S. Dollars. It just means that how we actually build up our numbers.

Speaker 3

But the answer itself, when you get there, is the same whether you do it as a functional currency for stealing or dollars. So there's no difference at all to both actuals or indeed to our ongoing guide.

Speaker 6

And it's just Mark here. Just before anyone runs away with our U. Base increase in comment, what we've actually been doing is actively moving a lot of our staff base from the European side across to the U. S, which is one of the reasons you're seeing that switch.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks. And so just in your schedule of OpEx, you refer to equity classified awards to suppliers. Is that a dollar amount you can clarify that When I called it stock based comp to vendors, just to clarify to use your language, the equity classified awards to suppliers. Is that a dollar amount you can clarify?

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Hey, Robin. Just checking which you're talking about which line in there, Robin?

Speaker 4

It's the footnote where you it's this dollar amount of stock based comp that we were talking about increasing year over year. It includes in your filing, it says that what you add back as stock based comp includes some equity classified awards to suppliers. So just wondering how much of it is that versus employee stock based awards?

Speaker 3

Yes, yes, understood. That's referring to the prior year, not to the current year. So that's the last part of the NSL warrants that were pushed through in 2023. So the whole award for 2024 is all in relation to employee based.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender with Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Mark, you reiterated your 30% EBITDA margin target as attainable or even beyond that. But I'm just trying to I'm piecing some of the comments together that you made. Is it fair to assume that you have everything within the business today that you need and that you just need to grow in line with U.

Speaker 9

S. GGR to get to your 30 percent EBITDA margin target?

Speaker 6

Yes, great question. Look, growing in line with GGR is obviously one of the reasons that the business has incredibly good visibility going forward. But it's not only that. As I sort of kind of refer back to my slight monologue at the beginning of this call where I was talking about new product delivery and the finishing of a lot of version 1s of those products and getting that distribution, which is what we're doing at the moment, things like SOAP, the X deal, in play, all of those things are driving growth. So it's not just one thing, which is GGR.

Speaker 6

It's sort of the wider business. And again, we're feeling good about it.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you. And then I know the Q2 for the U. S. Is seasonally the slowest period.

Speaker 9

But from a year over year perspective, that was down, I guess, high single digits. Can you just kind of walk us through what happened or what's going on in the U. S. During the Q2?

Speaker 3

Hey, Jordan, it's Nick. Yes, you're right. I think it was $10,000,000 I think in total year on year. And that's really in relation to the media programmatic spend. And as you know, that relates to things like new states opening up and pace of spend in sportsbooks.

Speaker 3

Actually betting, I think, year on year slightly up when you look at the U. S. But you're right to call out that Q2 is the quietest quarter for us, both in terms of media and betting in the U. S. And then you can see by our guide that, that accelerates in Q3 and Q4.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Chad Kelly with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Great. Thanks for taking my question. Just going and looking at the increase in 4Q, can you kind of give us a little more color how much of that is being driven by pricing versus more maybe live betting engagement or benefiting from Florida being live? Can you just talk about what's going on there?

Speaker 9

Yes.

Speaker 3

Hi, Jed. It's Nick. First of all, the Q4 isn't just in relation to betting. I think the ones you just referred to betting, which by the way are all helpful, but it's also major increases. It's actually also Sports Tech.

Speaker 3

We've announced, as you can see in the last few weeks, a couple of Sports Tech deals that will feed into that growth. So it's you've heard me, Jed, talk before about all the different levers of growth and the tailwinds we have. And frankly, it's all of those adding in. So you name check Florida, TAM, pricing, in place sports betting, all of that plays into it as well as the same media and sports. So it's not one particular.

Speaker 3

It's for all the reasons why we're able to maintain this growth, all contributing.

Speaker 9

And then just on VetVision, I mean, this is going to be the 2nd full year. Can you just talk on some of the products you think we should be expecting that some of your sports providers might introduce that could create an uptick in live betting? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean, look, we're rolling out, as I said earlier, there are lots of new features on this, including a lot more personalization. Obviously, we've got a lot of the ad set technology across the business, which really helps to drive that side of it as well. So there's quite a lot of focus on making sure that the product is being driven as efficiently on a customer by customer basis, but I mean by I mean on a user by user base as possible. The necessity to really make it immersive and really sort of keep customers engaged is something that we've been focusing very heavily on.

Speaker 6

So that is about, obviously, the addition of new sports and new products. There's a lot going on in the business. And really, I mean, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to kind of follow the announcements that we've made on some of our rights deals around basketball, things like the NCAA and as well as UK football to work out what products we're just rolling out on VetVision and they're all key to the bookies. And as I said, it's about getting it right, and we're feeling like we've got a really good launch for that now.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Hickey with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, Mark, Nick, Charles, Brandon. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter. Just two topics for me. I guess, first on capital allocation, obviously some pretty volatile markets here, Mark, and no doubt you're confident here in your growth opportunity and driving cash flow.

Speaker 10

How are you thinking about maybe a buyback here given sort of the environment that we're in? And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean, yes, it's not I don't think markets are a lot of fun for anyone. So I'm trying

Speaker 7

to feel for you.

Speaker 6

Share buyback, I mean, really, I think we've got a cleaner opportunity to consider this now that APACs have sold their entire stake. I mean, that's actually a point I really wanted to make that there were some questions that we've heard about whether APACs have really sold out or not. And the answer is yes, they've sold their entire stake. So I think from a capital based position, we're in a really strong position and it definitely opens up the door for a cleaner transaction should we choose to do

Speaker 10

so. Nice. Thanks, Nick. I guess next topic on your media ad business. U.

Speaker 10

S. Operators are sort of pointing out a pretty big reduction in CAC and correspondingly most of them it looks like have also really increased their UA spend. Just curious how you see that dynamic impacting your your media segment. And I guess if you feel you're still as competitive on CAC as you used to be in sort of that ROI that you're baking in for operators? Thanks guys.

Speaker 6

Yes, we're pretty relaxed about it. We've got our ad product, remember, is about more than just customer acquisition. One of the I think the things people don't talk about often is once you've got the customers, you've got to keep And the way that you keep them is you keep them with products and with good retention and making sure you're advertising to those customers. And actually, fundamentally, that's where a lot of this technology originally came from in the European markets. We were really about retention and making sure that people were engaging and using their customers better.

Speaker 6

So we're pretty relaxed. The product sets works both ways. And again, we expect to see strong rollout of that product across our customer base on top of a lot of the additional functionality that we've introduced.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Mark, I wanted to ask about the NFL just expanding. It seems like every year internationally, I know this year there's more games in Brazil and Germany and London. So what does this mean for your business?

Speaker 11

I guess firstly as viewers in these markets continue to just appreciate the NFL? And then I guess secondly, in markets where gambling could be legal like Brazil, what does this do to kind of set you up for future success? Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes. So the first thing I was going to say is Brazil is obviously very exciting from a betting opportunity. We've been incredibly well positioned there and have been for a long time. I think if you recall on I think my call

Speaker 7

2 quarters ago, there was a lot

Speaker 6

of buzz about Brazil. And I said, I wouldn't hold your breath. I think it would probably be towards the end of the year, and I think that's proving to be the case. So we do expect Brazil to be a very good and interesting market for us and the NFL being present there is obviously enormously beneficial.

Speaker 7

And yes, from a European point

Speaker 6

of view, the NFL is doing a great job, great guns. I mean, the games in Germany, the games in London are absolutely packed. There's a lot of buzz around about it. And we're very heavily involved in the technology to help them facilitate that expansion. It's a really big focus of the commissioner and many of his senior team, and therefore it's a very big focus for us.

Speaker 6

So we're excited about the opportunities there and it's a really good base to be starting from.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks. And then with Apex exiting their position, does this change, I guess, anything strategically, anything kind of how you look at the equity? I know you're always looking at small M and A deals, but anything change kind of within the organization? How you're thinking about the business over the next several years?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 6

No, look, APACs are a great partner and certainly when it came to the execution of the business, they were incredibly supportive of everything that we wanted to do. And so it doesn't really impact our strategy in any way, shape or form. We're just carrying on just doing what we were doing before. I think from a position of Etsy, I think it materially improves the technical base of the stock. And I think that's a really good position for us to be in, especially with people looking to take longer positions.

Speaker 6

And certainly, the APAC sell down was very oversubscribed. And I think that's a really positive thing. On top of that, the capital base that we have combined with that sort of, I guess, removal of that somewhat glass ceiling, I think, was there the APAC sold, gives us a lot of flexibility to really make decisions as I previously mentioned about things like share buybacks, but also interesting M and A as and when. But again, just to reiterate, we don't need to

Speaker 9

buy anything. We're in a

Speaker 6

really good position and we feel really good about the business.

Speaker 11

Appreciate it. Best of luck. Thanks.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Eric Martinuzzi with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes. I had a question regarding the upside on the revenue and the carry through down to the adjusted EBITDA. I would have expected to relatively small beat versus what you were expecting on the top line, but I didn't see the flow through. Was there anything to point to in your expense structure in Q2 that was unanticipated?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Eric, it's Nick. Yes. No, nothing unexpected. I think we beat by 1 in terms of the guidance and that we were directly in line in EBITDA.

Speaker 3

So no, nothing unexpected. And indeed, if you look at the flow through over the guide for Q3 and Q4, they both look pretty strong. I think I'm right thinking that Q3 is about 40% drop through and Q4 is a 41% drop through in the guide, which we said at the start of the year is kind of where we'd want to be on a sustainable basis.

Speaker 12

Got it. And then as far as the congratulations on the UEFA player tracking agreement there. How does that translate into revenue for the business? Is there going to be a cost offset by the stadiums or by UEFA? Is there just how does that monetize, I guess, is my question?

Speaker 3

Yes. We will gain revenues initially as part of this specific deal from UEFA. And you'll see that there's a smaller level of CapEx that has gone through the numbers in Q2, which is essentially putting those cameras in those grounds. The reality is this is a very exciting and strategic deal for us, not because of those revenues from Wafer, which is great in terms of player tracking, but actually it's the ability then to have all those cameras across multiple countries, multiple stadiums and therefore, as you know, the various multiple user revenue opportunities that, that brings us, whether that is from media or whether that's broadcast or whether that's from the clubs or the teams or the leagues or it's an association level. It's a very important strategic deal.

Speaker 3

It's what Mark said earlier. We've been talking about Dragon Technology and putting Dragon Technology into major sports stadium and leagues and federation for 18 months. This is just a great demonstration of executing on that strategy.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Clark Lambton with BTIG. Please go

Speaker 6

ahead. Thanks.

Speaker 9

Good morning, everybody. I have 2. Mark, I wanted to follow-up, I guess, on as we think about sort of the 20% medium term top line CAGR for the business and renewals contributing to that. Have you seen so far through the negotiations, I guess, to date that your clients or your partners, I guess, are willing to pay you or looking to pay you differently, meaning ad commitments have been higher as opposed to your partners meeting or exceeding your minimum threshold solely off of a share of GGR? And then Nick, I guess secondarily as we think about I guess what that sort of 20% plus top line CAGR translates to from a free cash basis.

Speaker 9

Is there a CAGR that we should think about or just 20% translate to something higher on a free cash basis because of working cap and other dynamics? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean, I don't have a massive amount of extra to say about the time in schools but renewals. The bookmaker, we've got must have products, must have relationships, and I think the bookmakers need to continue providing it. So it's our job to work as good partners with those clients to make sure that we're doing the right deals and we've got the interest of both them and the shareholders of genius at the heart of what we're doing. Yes.

Speaker 3

And Clive, just on your second one. I mean, first of all, as you know, our cost base is pretty predictable and certainly hugely visible, particularly now having done the UK soccer deal as we had anticipated all the way up to the end of the decade. And naturally, as our EBITDA margin continues to improve, and you've seen that again in this announcement with the guidance for 2024, cash flows naturally follow. I mean, if you look at the operating cash flow of the business in the 1st 6 months of this year, it's actually flat this year compared to, I think, a $23,000,000 loss of operating cash flow in the first half of twenty twenty three. So you're seeing that, that cash improvement is real, and we've reiterated being cash positive in 2024 again today.

Speaker 3

So therefore, I would anticipate that the revenue increases would naturally flow through to a free cash flow basis.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Brett Knopfelow with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi, guys. This is Thomas on. Thanks for taking my question. I guess just one for me. Considering the macro pressures, inflation and even potential recession with the current jobs numbers, Do you anticipate any impact on betting activity coming into the EPL and NFL seasons?

Speaker 6

I think that we sort of we've been through the cycle before and often it's kind of cyclical, but it's we're pretty conservative with the way that we forecast. And we're not expecting anything particularly unusual, to be honest with you. The overall TAM is growing. The macros are growing. States have been coming online in a better way.

Speaker 6

And by that, I mean, not only the new states, it's the improvement in the quality of the products within the states that have gone online. So all of the tailwinds for the industry are really strong hold, should improve over time as the products improve, as the quality of trading improves, as the quality of the data improves, as the quality of the advertising improves. And you should see bookmakers operating in more efficient, more rational market in the same way that frankly, we are as our industry becomes much more dual holistic.

Speaker 1

Awesome. Thanks.

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Earnings Conference Call
Genius Sports Q2 2024
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