ZTO Express (Cayman) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 19, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Negative Sentiment: Despite higher revenue and volume, ZTO reported margin pressure in Q3 — adjusted net income was RMB 2.51 billion (up 5%) while gross profit fell 11.4% and gross margin dropped ~6.3pp, driven by higher costs from non‑ecommerce mix and increased incentives.
  • Negative Sentiment: The company lowered its 2025 volume outlook to 38.2–38.7 billion parcels (up 12.3%–13.8% YoY) and plans RMB 5.5–6.0 billion of full‑year CapEx, signaling more modest near‑term scale leverage and continued investment needs.
  • Positive Sentiment: ZTO says the government’s anti‑involution policy is stabilizing industry pricing and curbing destructive low‑price competition, which management frames as a tailwind for quality‑focused market leaders and long‑term pricing recovery.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management emphasizes a quality‑first strategy — prioritizing last‑mile capability upgrades, digitization and end‑to‑end cost efficiencies (sorting + line‑haul unit cost down ~RMB0.05) and expanding into integrated logistics (LTL, cold‑chain, warehousing) to diversify revenue and improve resilience.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
ZTO Express (Cayman) Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections

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Operator

Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sophie Li, Secretary for the Company. Please go ahead.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Thank you, Operator. Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The Company's results and the investor relations presentation were released earlier today and are available on the Company's IR website at irz.zto.com. On the call today from ZTO are Mr. Mason Lai, Chairman and the Chief Executive Officer, and Ms. Huiping Yan, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Lai will give a brief overview of the Company's business operations and highlights, followed by Ms. Yan, who will go through the financials and guidance. They will both be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. I remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Such statements are based on management's current expectations and current market and operating conditions, and relate to events that involve known or unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict, and many of which are beyond the Company's control, which may cause the Company's actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Further information regarding this and other risks, uncertainties, and factors is included in the Company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required under law. It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Mason Lai. Mr. Lai will read through his prepared remarks in their entirety in Chinese before I translate for him in English. [Foreign language]再重听。

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 大家好，感谢各位参加今天的电话会议。2025年三季度，快递行业增速稳健，总统保持行业领先的服务水平，完成业务量95.7亿件，同比增长9.8%。调整后净利润比去年同期提升5%，达到25.1亿元。三季度，政府提倡反内卷和基础民生保障，引导有序竞争，遏制不合理的低价行为。快递业整体的价格水平持稳回升，总统坚持以服务质量为先的平产发展战略。这些响应国家对标杆企业的严格要求，进一步完善和落实高数量和高质量协同发展的方针，激励网络合作伙伴降本增收，提升末单缆派能力，成为最后一公里的优选。总统三季度散件业务量同比增速接近50%，非电商件量的增长保持了高速增长的态势。我们通过优化缆件模式和精细化管理，提升了服务质量和成本效益。在卷运效益方面，总统持续推进数字化卷型升级，应用标准化成本管控机制，实施更加精准的资源调配和绩效管理，单票制运加分拣成本，实现了0.05元的同比下降。进入四季度，行业整体业务量增长有所放缓，尽管宏观经济的复苏存在不确定性和短期的挑战，快递和物流行业的长期发展前景依然是广阔的。我们将持续专注于自身产品和服务能力的建设，下阶段重点推进的工作有以下五个方面：一、坚守服务质量生命线，健全单到单质量管理体系，将平台指数融入绩效考核，实现质量到岗、考核到人，确保服务持续领先；二、深化末单能力建设，推进站点分拣能力升级，深化质量直送与本地商业部署，降低派件成本，提升散件占比与末单收益；三、优化网络政策与激励机制，在保障业务量稳健增长的同时，增强政策透明度与公平性，精准制定激励机制，激发网络内生动力；四、推进全链路降本增效，依托前沿技术和数字化工具，优化路由规划，精准配置运力，提升设备投入的科学性和使用效率，加强平台运营各个环节的协同性、赋能网点，持续挖掘运营效益，降低末单缆派成本，提升收益；五、维护网络公平性和基层权益，完善沟通与治理机制，及时解决实际问题，保障网点与业务员的自身权益，维护品牌信任度和网络信心。当前，行业正经历着有高数量向量子并举的战略性变迁，宏观经济之下低价包裹占比的提升，给总统这样的头部企业带来了特殊的新课题。面对这一机构性变化，总统坚定选择以质、质量、以效取胜的发展路径。我们通过持续的产品升级与精细化管理，在复杂的市场竞争中坚守高质量服务标准，并在合理盈利区间持续拓展业务规模。与此同时，我们的加盟合作伙伴也在经历着白热化价格竞争的锤炼，正积极通过末单能力建设与模式创新，开拓多元化收入来源，持续优化经营效益，进一步增强总统网络的发展韧性与经营信心。竞争是绝大多数行业必然经历的一个过程。面向未来，我们坚信依托中国经济的深厚基础和蓬勃发展的潜力，总统能够继续传承我们独特的企业文化，借助坚实的网络基础、良好的经营能力和稳健的财务实力，在快递和物流行业持续发展中赢得先机，与各方合作伙伴共创价值，用优质的产品与服务造就更多人的幸福。接下来我们请严总给大家介绍财务基础和预期。谢谢大家。

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Hello everyone, thank you for joining today's conference call. China's express delivery industry experienced steady growth during the third quarter of 2025. While maintaining its industry-leading service quality, ZTO grew its parcel volume by 9.8% year-over-year to reach 9.57 billion parcels. Our adjusted net income was RMB 2.51 billion, which rose 5% over the same period last year. During the quarter, government advocated for grassroots interests against involution and promoted more orderly competition by curbing unreasonable low-price practices. As a result, the overall pricing level across the express delivery industry stabilized and began to recover. Adhering to our balanced approach to quality-first growth strategy, ZTO rose up to the higher standards for model enterprises and reinforced the principal design to achieve coordinated development with both high volume and high quality.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

We encourage our network partners to reduce costs and increase income by strengthening last-mile pickup and delivery capabilities to become the preferred choice of last-mile market. ZTO's retail parcel volume maintained strong growth momentum and grew close to 50% year-on-year. Through optimizing the pickup model and the refined lean process management, we enhanced both service quality and cost efficiency. For transit efficiency, ZTO continued to advance the application of smart technology in transforming standardized cost control mechanisms, implementing more effective resource allocation and performance matrix. The combined unit cost of transportation and sorting decreased by RMB 0.05 year-on-year. Entering the fourth quarter, overall industry volume growth exhibited some moderation, where uncertainties and short-term challenges in the microeconomic recovery still exist. The long-term prospects for the express delivery and logistic industry remain positive. We will stay focused on enhancing our products and service capabilities.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

In the next phase, we will prioritize the following five areas of work. First, uphold service quality as our lifeline. Establish a comprehensive end-to-end quality management service system with integrated platform service indicators for performance evaluations. Assign clear responsibilities and accountabilities, ensuring continued service leadership. Second, deepen last-mile capability build-out. Expand upgrades of sorting capabilities at outlets. Further implement direct linkage and incorporate local commercial opportunities. Hence, reduce delivery costs and enhance last-mile profitability through a higher retail parcel mix. Third, optimize network policies and incentivize mechanisms. While ensuring steady volume growth, enhance policy transparency and fairness. Implement relevant incentive mechanisms to cultivate intrinsic motivation. Fourth, advance end-to-end cost efficiency and synergy. Leverage cutting-edge technologies and digitization tools to optimize route planning with appropriate match to transit capacity. More scientifically plan for capital investment and utilization, and improve coordination across all stages of operations.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Help network partners to continuously improve their operational efficiency, reduce last-mile pickup and delivery costs, and achieve higher earnings. Fifth, safeguard fairness and grassroots interests. Improve communication and governance. Promptly address genuine concern and resolve real issues. Protect legitimate rights and interests of outlets and carriers, and maintain trust and confidence in our brand. The express delivery industry is currently undergoing a strategic shift from prioritizing high volume towards development in both quantity and quality. Against today's microeconomic backdrop, the increasing proportion of low-priced parcel presents unique new challenges for top-tier enterprises like ZTO. Facing this structural change, ZTO stayed course in prioritizing quality of services and winning through efficiency. Through continuous product upgrades and refined process management, we navigated a complex market environment, upheld high quality of service standards, and scaled up within reasonable earnings parameters.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

In the meantime, our network partners baptized by fierce price competition are actively innovating and forging last-mile capability and business model with more diverse revenue, better operational efficiency. With higher confidence in the success of operations, the franchising network is becoming even more resilient. Competition is an inevitable growth phase for the majority of industries. Looking ahead, we firmly believe that by leveraging the vast potential of solid growth foundation and vibrancy of China's economy, ZTO can perpetuate our unique culture, rely on our robust infrastructure, and with our strong operational capabilities and sound financial strength, we are able to seize opportunities in the ongoing development of the express delivery and logistic industry. Together with all our partners, we can create greater value and bring happiness to more people through our products and services. Next, let's invite Ms. Yan to present the financial results and guidance.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Thank you, Chiamalai, and thank you, Sophie. Hello to everyone on the call. As I go through our financials, please note that, as I specifically mentioned, all numbers quoted are in RMB, and percentage changes refer to year-over-year comparisons. Detailed financial and performance information, unit economics, and cash flow are posted on our website, and I'll go through some of the highlights here. In the third quarter, in alignment with government's appeal against involution, we reaffirmed our focus on quality, enhancing our core competencies to advance high-quality development. Our parcel volume reached 9.6 billion, which grew 9.8%. Adjusted net income increased 5% to RMB 2.5 billion. ASP for core express delivery business increased 1.7% or RMB 0.02, and the breakdown are the following: RMB 0.18 positive contribution from increase in KA volume, mainly comprised of headquarter contracted reverse logistics products and services.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

This growth was partially offset by a RMB 0.02 decrease due to lower average weight per parcel and a RMB 0.14 reduction from higher volume incentives. Total revenue increased 11.1% to RMB 11.9 billion as a combined result of volume and price increase. Total cost of revenue was RMB 8.9 billion, which increased 21.4% as a blended result of significant increase in costs associated with non-e-commerce volume relative to the rate of decrease in cost for e-commerce volume. From the overall unit cost perspective, core express delivery business increased RMB 0.09-RMB 0.91. Combined unit cost of sorting and transportation decreased 7.7% or RMB 0.05 for the quarter, benefiting from economies of scale and various productivity initiatives. Specifically, unit cost for line haul transportation decreased 11.5% to RMB 0.34, thanks to enhanced route planning in conjunction with optimizing fleet operations.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Unit sorting costs remained stable at RMB 0.25 due to improved labor efficiency through automation, offset by higher cost from new facilities that commenced operations in the quarter. Unit KA cost increased RMB 0.14, which is in line with KA volume growth. Gross profit decreased 11.4% to RMB 3 billion, and gross margin rate dropped 6.3 percentage points to 24.9%. SG&A excluding SBC grew 16.2% to RMB 633 million. SG&A expenses excluding SBC, as a percentage of revenue, slightly climbed to 5.3% compared to 5% in the same quarter last year, primarily due to higher depreciation and amortization expenses. Income from operations decreased 15.4% to RMB 2.4 billion, and associated margin dropped 6.3 percentage points to 20.3%. Operating cash flow was RMB 3.2 billion for the quarter, representing a 3.2% increase. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 4.2% to RMB 3.6 billion.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Capital expenditure for Q3 totaled RMB 1.2 billion, and we anticipate our annual CapEx expenses in 2025 to be RMB 5.5 billion-RMB 6 billion. Now, moving on to our guidance. With visibility into the final quarter of the year, we are adjusting down the annual volume guidance to be in the range of 38.2 billion-38.7 billion parcels, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.3%-13.8%. Volume is critical to a scale-leveraged business, and partner network stability is the foundation for sustainable long-term growth of our company. As macro environment continues to evolve and industry dynamics shifts towards more orderly competition, we are confident in our ability to execute the overall corporate strategy as well as tackling challenges in the near term. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been addressed and you'd like to remove yourself from queue, please press star then two. Once again, that is star then one if you have a question. Our first question today comes from Ronald Keung with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Ronald Keung
Ronald Keung
Managing Director at Goldman Sachs

[Foreign language] 谢谢来到来到Sophie，对，那想问两个提问。第一就我们看到这个三季度大家的各个玩家的这个增速大概也有点converge啊，那大家增速差不多啊，现在这个价格也开始稳定下来。那我们应该怎么想这个行业的格局和明年的这个展望，尤其是这个大家的这个如果市占开始稳定下来，那我们怎么看长期整个快递行业的这个行业格局，对啊。第二就想问这个，我们说我们叫叫叫变成一个overall logistics holistic service provider，就这个整个整个物流的这个更加integrated的这个服务。那想听一下我们除了快递以外，其他的物流服务，高端的这个快递和和和和全全站的这个物流服务，这边我们还还有什么新的一些战略，对，那我翻译一下。 Thank you, management. Two questions. One is about the industry structure and outlook, given that we've seen growth convergence and pricing have stabilized temporarily, but how should we think of the year ahead and the long-term market structure as we are still in a relatively fragmented industry landscape. Second is about integrated logistics opportunities besides the express delivery, what are we doing on the higher end or overall supply chain logistics offering to provide a more integrated service to your customers. Thank you.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 你好，这个你第一个问题就是还有一个绝对问题，这个还有一个绝对一定是你既有规模，防护质量好啊，这个效益明显，成本有优势，那肯定会啊，这个占据更大的市场份额。也就是说这个肯定是个体，肯定是做好自己的事情，然后强者肯定是更强。那第二个这个战略综合物流，中通一则啊，这个遵循这个看未来做现在的事情，那我们第一呢要做好我们自己的主业，就把快递主业做强做大啊，这个质量优先啊，这个规模啊也要上去，这个做好这个质量、数量跟利润的平衡，就总部的三大指标。第二呢就是处理好中心站点和业务员的利益分配，那快递这是物流的一部分，这个中国其实物流的市场更大，所以我们快递主要是突突C啊，这个服务广大的消费群体和电商。那更主要的是哈，我们要在大物流大物流方面发力，那我们现在呢中通除了有快递以外啊，那我们生态圈里还有快运冷链仓啊，包括我们的突使，就是啊，我们相信的未来的竞争一定是综合物流的竞争啊，是全方位的竞争。所以啊，我们不仅仅啊服务电商，还更要服务制造业啊，服务现代农业商业，这是第二条曲线。第三条曲线呢就是这个产品优势的发挥，比如说末端产品优势，如何从运送包裹到制造包裹，对中通来讲呢要把握好啊，末从领先优势到生态优势，再到啊这个产品优势的新机遇。谢谢。

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Thank you very much for your question. The very first question is really related to the competitive and industry dynamics and where it's going. We believe that the scale and better services as well as higher efficiency, cost effectiveness will lead to greater opportunities. We have continuously focused on becoming the best of ourselves because the future belongs to the stronger ones. Looking into the future, we again will continue to focus on now as we look forward. There are several things that we are continuously focusing on. The first one is to strengthen the competitive advantage of our core businesses, and there are three perspectives or three areas that we will be paying attention to. The first one is to strengthen the connectivity or relationship between the outlets, the couriers with our sortation center.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

It's mainly for allocation of interest, allocation of roles and responsibility as well as rewards across these all three points with better equity and equality. The second part is express delivery is mainly serving the to see consumers. We leveraging the installed base will have an opportunity to solve bring solutions for greater logistic market. Currently, we have express delivery, we have LTL business, cold chain in warehouse cloud operation, as well as last mile outlets. We believe the competitive landscape will shift towards comprehensive capability focused. We will not only serve to see, we will also serve modern manufacturing, agriculture, as well as more specific scenarios such as bringing products and services from factory directly to consumers, bringing agriculture products out of the field directly onto people's dinner table.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

For all these specific scenarios, we will participate with higher quality, higher efficiency, and this will lead to a differentiated competitive advantage in the future for us.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 谢谢来到来走。

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Qianlei Fan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Qianlei Fan
Qianlei Fan
Executive Director in Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Thank you. [Foreign language] 谢谢赖总严总送给给我提问的机会。那我有两个小问题啊，第一个小问题是想提问一下这个反内卷政策的一些后续的影响以及对后面市场价格的一个预期。那尤其是我们观察到其实公司四季度建量的指引的这个增长范围还是比较的宽，然后想提问一下就是说在这个比较宽的这个范围的指引背后是怎么样的考虑，基于怎么样的市场的动态以及刚刚严总有提到说也考虑了一些challenges in the near term的这些near term的challenges到底有没有什么具体的细节可以分享，这第一个小问题。那第二个小问题也是最近市场比较关心的，在几周以前有一个来自监管的一个公告说跟中通也是有一个约谈，那想请教一下这个约谈的主要的情况以及会不会有什么后续的影响，那让我翻译一下我的问题。 Thank you management for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first one is about the anti-involution. Do you have any comments on the anti-involution's potential impacts specifically on the outlook for market pricing? We have noticed that the company's guidance on volume for the first quarter of this year implies a quite wide range of growth outlook. What's the consideration behind this outlook? Specifically as Yan just mentioned there are some considerations of like near-term challenges. What are these near-term challenges and what's the outlook for next year? My same question is about a recent news talking about that regulators had a conversation with ZTO's management on its network management. Is there any details that could be shared and is there any potential impacts we should be expecting? Thank you.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 谢谢你的提问。你第一个提问是反内卷，是今年8月份起快递行业推行的反内卷政策已逐步在全国大部分地区落实，推动价格理性回归。这个完结的年初以来因过度价格竞争导致的行业压力，有效引导行业回归健康有序的高质量发展轨道，预计这一趋势啊也有持续性。这随着反内卷持续政策政策的持续发力，行业竞争正从高数量发展转向高质量发展，更加注重服务品质和持续可持续增长。预计观察之后市场价格将维持在成本线以上，竞争趋于良性。我们预计监管机构将继续鼓励优质发展，规范市场行为的思路。一方面政策会继续鼓励职业通过技术管理和服务创新来提升核心核心竞争力，另一方面对于可能损害用户权益影响末端稳定的行为，监管也会保持高度关注并适时介入，以保障整个行业的长期健康发展。这位中通这位头部企业深刻理解并积极响应这一监管导向，我们视之为重要的发展机遇，将主动承担更多示范移民责任，一是持持续加大在自动化数字化等领域的投入，做强自身硬实力，二是在经营中更加关注基层网点和快递员的权益与反馈，确保网络的稳定与健康，三是将合规经营提升到战略高度，致力于成立行业高质量发展的标杆。这个第二个问题，这个也感谢大家对中通的关心关注，就是我们10月28号啊由监管部门约谈中通。那监管约谈和相关独立个个案核心都指向了同一个行业趋势，中国快递行业正在从高速增长全面转向啊高质量发展。这要求行业所有的参与者，尤其是龙头企业，必须在追求业务规模的同时将服务品质合规经营与网络健康放在更优先的位置。这些事件在短期内对我们管理精细度的一次重要提醒和压力之死，公司高度重视这些反馈，并以时与将其转化为内部优化升级的机制。我们正在全面审视并进一步强化在服务质量、末端稳定及合作伙伴支持等方面的体系建设。长期来看，我们相信主动适应并引领这一高质量转型不仅符合监管与市场的期望，更能构筑起中通更持久更健康的竞争优势。这有助于我们吸引更优质的客户与合作伙伴，实现长期的可持续发展。谢谢。

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Thank you very much for your question. The sustainability of the anti-excessive competitive competition policy, I think it was related to your first question. Since August of this year, the anti-involution policy has been progressively rolled out across most regions nationwide, aiming at rational recovery in pricing. This policy directly addressed the pressure caused by excessive price competition since earlier this year, and it caused for the industry to turn towards orderly competition and healthy development. We expect this trend to continue, and the effort will also continue to take effect. As the anti-involution guidance continues to take effect, industry overall attention is shifting from high volume growth focused to combined effort in high quality development as well as high volume, with greater emphasis on service quality and sustainable long-term viability.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Once the assessment period concludes, we think market rates are expected to stabilize above at least the cost levels, promoting healthier competition. We also believe that the regulatory focus will continue to advocate high quality development and disciplined market practice. On one hand, policies will continue to encourage companies to build competitive advantages through innovation, technology, effective managerial skills, and services. On the other hand, regulators will remain vigilant and intervene as needed to seize practices that could harm grassroots interests or disrupt social stability, protecting sustainable long-term growth. As an industry leader, ZTO's quality-first and balanced development strategy is fully aligned, and we are engaged with the regulatory guidance. We view it as a growth opportunity and will take proactive steps to provide model effect for the sector. First, we will continue with investments in automation and digitization to strengthen our operational capabilities.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Second, we will pay close attention to constructive feedback from outlets and couriers to strengthen network stability. Third, we will pay strategic focus to benchmark to provide benchmark effect for higher quality development for the industry. As to the recent consultation by relevant government agencies, we believe that the recent regulation consultation is consistent with the anti-involution policies as well as our intention. It also is related to certain isolated cases arose from the network complaints. The express delivery industry is shifting from high volume growth to high quality development at the same time, and this is the overall guidance with anti-involution policy as well as this specific consultation. It requires all participants, especially ZTO, as a leading player in this industry to provide exemplified model effect.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

In the short term, we think that these consultation events serve as an important reminder for us, as well as we believe stress tests for our managerial attention and capabilities. We have taken the feedback constructively and seriously and are treating it as a catalyst for further improvements internally. We have thoroughly reviewed our system and feedback as well as providing greater visibility and timely feedback in addressing specific issues. In the long run, we believe that proactively embracing and leading this high quality transformation not only is consistent with our regulatory and market expectations, but also builds.

Operator

Good evening, everybody. This is the conference operator. It appears the speaker line has disconnected. We're going to put the music back on here. We will restart here in just one moment when they dial back in. Thank you, everybody.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Thank you.

Operator

Pardon me, everyone. This is the operator. We've reconnected the speaker location. Please proceed with your answer.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Thank you. I'll rewind just slightly where we got cut off. In the longer term, we believe that proactively embracing and leading the high quality transformation will not only be consistent with the regulatory intention and the market expectations, but also build a more robust and sustainable collaborative model for us to work with all constituents in our industry and in our end-to-end businesses. This will help us attract higher quality customers and partners, ensuring longer and sustainable growth. Thank you for your question.

Operator

Thank you. Yes, ma'am. Our next question today comes from Aaron Luo with UBS. Please go ahead.

Aaron Luo
Aaron Luo
Equity Analyst at UBS

Thank you, Ms. Lai, Ms. Yan, and Sophie for taking my question. My question is more about volume. As we know, as we noticed that the industry has experienced the, more or less notable like volume slowdown recently. Just curious about the underlying drivers, perhaps is that more related to the pricing recovers recently. Also, how should we think about the volume growth for next year? Also, any potential changes in competitive landscape or competition dynamics and/or a volume slowdown going forward? Thank you so much.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 谢谢你的提问啊。你这三个问题，一个是增速放缓，第二个是明年的增速，呃，还有一个是格局发生变化。呃，近期确实啊，这个我们10月份刚刚官方公布啊，我们的增长，呃，个位数，这个是行业增长个位数，这个是啊，没很长时间没看到这个情况。这行业增速放缓，我认为主要在这个价格的推动之上啊，这个反内卷的政策推动下，价格有所上涨。这一变化对部分价格高度敏感的低价电商造成了一定影响。行业低价券占比下降，那这个是主要影响。就是你包邮几块钱包邮的，本来赚了稍微有一点点利润的，因为你的快递费涨上来了，所以这部分钱在减少。整体来看，行业质量机构正逐步向更健康的方向调整，具备优质和成熟产品体系的快递龙头企业将更具备竞争优势。就这个放缓，其实啊，对原来这个低价券占比低的这个快递企业，其实它的份额会占比会提升。明年我们预计业务量将维持健康的增长水平。就是啊，这个肯定这个20左右啊，15、16这个大概率不太可能啊。我我预计总是啊，10左右啊。行业将告别单纯以量为导向的发展阶段，逐步转向高质量发展。市场资源将更多流向注重服务与效率的事情。这个趋势啊，这个格局呢，行业格局的未来分化将在监管持续引导与实业自力规范运营下共同推进，迈向健康竞争的新阶段。谢谢。

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Yes, indeed. Thank you for your question. We have noticed a long absent decline or deceleration in the industry. The recent announced October average growth of the industry is low single digit, and that's been not seen for a long period of time. We think that the recent deceleration in the industry growth is primarily due to the price increase driven by the evolution, anti-involution policy. This adjustment where overall logistic price has increased and has a greater impact on low margin and highly price-sensitive e-commerce merchants, resulting in a decline in that segment of the parcel. Overall, the sector's parcel volume mix is shifted again towards a better structure with higher economics. Leading express delivery companies with stronger service capabilities and well-established product portfolios are poised to regain their competitive position.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

In other words, for those that typically gained volume from lower priced packages will be impacted greater negatively. Looking ahead to next year, we expect the industry volume growth to perhaps stabilize and most likely to stay around 10%. The sector is shifting away from a singular focus on volume growth towards higher quality as well as quantity development, with market resources increasingly gravitating towards service quality and operational efficiency. The future reshaping of the competitive landscape will be driven by ongoing regulatory influence alongside corporate self-discipline and standardized operations, paving the way for a healthier competitive landscape and sustainable long-term growth.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 谢谢赖总，杨总，非常清楚。

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from [Wu Jinlin with Citic Securities]. Please go ahead.

Operator

[Foreign language] 好的，那个赖总、袁总、Sophie总，各位领导上午好。我是中信证券交易物流护士名团队的林木锦啊，那么也非常感谢管理层给我这个提问的机会啊。那我这边可能还是主要想请教两个小问题啊。第一个是关于这个成本端的，那我们能看到其实2025年，我们各家快递公司布置的这个产能是相对来说比较正常的啊。那正如刚刚赖总也提到，其实行业竞争也正在从高数量向高质量去演绎。那如果明年反内卷持续在金价格相对高的一个位置下，可能会导致就是建量可能增速没有我们之前预期的，或者说年初的预期高啊。那这样会不会带来一个成本的这个压力？那作为结果端来看，我们怎么去展望2026年的成本端更合适啊？然后第二个问题是这个关于局部地区的价格竞争的，那我们也关注到，其实产量区在设置这个底价之后，金条件的这个量和占比可能会下降。那是否会导致我们说价格竞争的重心向更高公斤段去进行转移啊？那接下来请让我翻译一下我的问题啊。 First of all, thank you for taking my questions, and I guess my first question would go with the cost reduction. If the anti-involution policy continues into 2026, I'm concerned that the industry CapEx of 2025 would be actually set for a higher growth rate in expectation. Would this possibly bring any challenges in our cost reduction if a lower parcel growth is shown in 2026? As a result, could we be shed more sunlight on the cost improvement in 2026? The second question would be regarding the competition structure. As we can see that after setting price for some parcels in the major markets, for example, like in Guangdong, and other primates, would this lead to some more shift of the focus on the price competition from the lower kilogram range to the higher one?

Operator

I guess that's my question. Thank you.

Meisong Lai
Chairman and CEO at ZTO

[Foreign language] 谢谢你的提问。这个成本其实一直是我们中通啊，非常注重的一方面。我们过去在这个产能投入方面，就是第一阶段，我们中通呢，在转运的成本优势在整个行业是非常明显的。随着这几年哈，这个各家公司在几艘产能建设上的投入，其实这个设备车辆大家都差不多，用的都是水挂车，所所以转运的成本会更加接近啊。我们会在我自己预计呢，就是明年啊，它总的成本还是会下降，就转运单，但是会收窄。但总的成本它是分四个方面的，除了转运以外还有收派。所以全链路的路的这个成本啊，我们中通都在这个今年，包括网点的3+1工作啊，成效都是非常明显的。所以对中通来讲，就是啊，我们会继续啊，加强数字化能力建设，智能化的投入，以及合理的啊，这个分配好各个段的啊，周转运派，每个段的这个成本的优化啊，这个空间还是有的。我们有信心呢，继续在成本方面在行业啊，保持领先。第二个啊，你讲的是竞争的问题，那确实啊，是你说的一样，就是随着反内卷的推进，价格的回升，这个轻小件、低客单价件啊，这个占比在减少。那我们会根据各个地方的产能啊，配置相应的资源，比如说中西部地区啊，我们会根据仓位的调配啊，我们会适当的就是在公斤蛋上面啊，做一些调整。总体来讲呢，我们有信心就是啊，在成本单，在啊，各个环节，就是我们还是会平衡好这个份额、质量跟啊，利润的三大平台。谢谢。在这个竞争优势，我们相信我们还是啊，这个还是要把握领先优势，到这个更加突出的领先优势，这样迈进。谢谢。

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

Thank you very much for your question. Yes, ZTO has always been focusing on our cost efficiency. In the first development of our company, because of our attention in capacity and infrastructure development, our competitive cost advantage is very apparent. As the industry progressed, you saw that various other peers have also invested in facilities, equipment, as well as transportation capabilities. You saw that our competitive cost advantages across the industry are becoming more close to each other. We think that the focus now is not just in transit and line haul, because out of the four segments of the end-to-end services, we have collection as well as delivery.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

For the total end-to-end cost reduction or cost efficiencies, we have initiated work in, for example, the three plus one effort, so as to continue to improve the cost equation across the whole process. We have invested in technology, invested in higher efficiency in matching the capacity as well as the demand for capacity. We have helped our network partners to improve their automation capabilities as well, to improve their efficiency, allowing, for example, the couriers to have more time in focusing on their delivery work, at the same time reducing the outlet's overall last mile cost. We do believe that with the existing market operational layout, the cost advantage will eventually be diminishing.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

However, with increasing attention to the end-to-end all segments coordination and integration in reducing cost, improve efficiency, not only the transit and sortation segment of our business will continue to lead in cost as well, cost efficiency, as well as our network partners will gain advantage in becoming the lowest cost in the last mile as well as the pickup. We so hence have high confidence in maintaining our cost leadership going forward. The second part of your question relates to what we will, what we have observed going forward in the smaller packages becoming lesser component of the total volume. What we do, we will, based on the capacity layout of our whole network, appropriately allocate and matching the resources. For example, in the middle and the western part of our network, we should be able to gravitate more towards some policies for higher weight.

Huiping Yan
CFO at ZTO

From an overall perspective, we believe we do have high confidence in managing the policy in addressing this shift in the mix of our volume. We again will continue to focus on our balanced approach in developing volume, scale, and the reasonable profit level, all under the premises of high quality of product and services going forward.

Operator

Thank you. Apologies. Please proceed.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Yeah, we believe this will conclude our call for today. Again, thank you everybody for joining us, and we look forward to have further discussions with you offline.

Sophie Li
Capital Markets Director at ZTO

Thank you. This is the end of today's conference call. We thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

Analysts
    • Qianlei Fan
      Executive Director in Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
    • Huiping Yan
      CFO at ZTO
    • Ronald Keung
      Managing Director at Goldman Sachs
    • Meisong Lai
      Chairman and CEO at ZTO
    • Sophie Li
      Capital Markets Director at ZTO
    • Analyst
    • Aaron Luo
      Equity Analyst at UBS
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