Albany International Q4 2024 Earnings Report

Albany International EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.58
• Consensus EPS: $0.63
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Albany International Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $286.91 million
• Expected Revenue: $299.52 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$12.61 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Albany International Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2024
• Date: 2/26/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, February 27, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Albany International (NYSE:AIN), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the machine clothing and engineered composites businesses. The company operates in two segments, Machine Clothing (MC) and Albany Engineered Composites (AEC). The MC segment designs, manufactures, and markets paper machine clothing for use in the manufacturing of papers, paperboards, tissues, towels, pulps, nonwovens, building products, tannery, and textiles, as well as fiber cement and several other industrial applications. This segment offers paper machine clothing forming, pressing, and drying fabrics, as well as engineered processing belts; and engineered fabrics. The AEC segment 3D-woven and injected composite components for aircraft engines composite airframe and engine components for military and commercial aircraft. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, France, Brazil, China, Mexico, Germany, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1895 and is headquartered in Rochester, New Hampshire.

Albany International Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Desiree, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Albany International Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

[Operator]

I would now like to turn the conference over to JC Chatnani, VPIR and Treasurer. You may begin.

[JC Chetnani, VP - Investor Relations & Treasurer at Albany International]

Thank you, Desiree, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Albany International's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings conference call. As a reminder, for those listening on the call, please refer to our press release issued last night detailing our quarterly financial results. Contained in the text of the release is a notice regarding our forward looking statements and the use of certain non GAAP financial measures and their reconciliation to GAAP. For the purposes of this conference call, those same statements apply to our verbal remarks this morning.

[JC Chetnani, VP - Investor Relations & Treasurer at Albany International]

Today, we will make statements that are forward looking and contain a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. For a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to both our earnings release of 02/26/2025, as well as our SEC filings, including our 10 K. Now, I will turn the call over to Gunnar Cleveland, our President and CEO, who will provide opening remarks. Gunnar?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Thank you, JC. Good morning and welcome everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings call. I'll provide an overview of our business performance and Rob will later discuss our financial results in detail and then the outlook for 2025. We continue to perform well in both our businesses as evidenced by strong results at Machine Clothing and ongoing operational progress, thereby new leadership at Engineered Composites.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

While we recognize additional EAC adjustments at AEC, the overall business fundamentals are strong and we expect higher revenues and improving profitability over the next several years. For the full year, we reported record revenues of nearly $1,250,000,000 driven by organic growth at AEC AEC and the Heimbach acquisition. With our focus on working capital and cash flow, we generated free cash flow of $59,000,000 in the fourth quarter and $137,000,000 for the full year underlying the strength of the combined business. Our balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape, giving us the ability to execute our growth strategy. With the current and projected cash flow and strong balance sheet, we are able to return value to the shareholder as part of our capital allocation strategy.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

We have initiated our share repurchase program. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we repurchased $15,000,000 of shares. The Board has also authorized a new share repurchase program, which supersedes our turn program and is now up to $250,000,000 Turning to our businesses. Machine Clothing revenues in the fourth quarter were slightly below same quarter last year due to a strong comparative period. Our focus in the second half of twenty twenty four was to consolidate our operations and discontinue on profitable product lines, primarily at the Heimark business.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

This is part of the integration plan and while it leads to lower top line growth, in the short term, it improves our bottom line performance. In terms of grades, packaging and publication were down year over year in the fourth quarter, again driven by strong comparisons to the prior year, but the long term trends remain positive, especially for packaging, our MC product's largest end market. Tissue and pulp remained stable and we grew our sales in engineered fabrics, partially offset by publications. In terms of geographies, North America continues to be a strong contributor, while South America remains stable with slightly improving trends. Europe was generally flat year over year and we'll be looking for some growth into 2025.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Asia was also generally flat year over year with slight weakness in China. Our global MC backlog is stable. There is some consolidation in our paper customer base and we're working with our customers through the transition as they move product to optimize their footprint. At Heimach, our integration plan is on track. We have consolidated operations and streamlined our footprint.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

The business is a complement to the legacy Albany company in both geography and technology and we continue to sell the product using the Heimbach brand. Our cross functional integration process is progressing and we have made considerable improvement in Heimbach's working capital levels significantly contributing to our consolidated free cash flow results. Our exit run rate on synergies is strong and we're on track to meet our financial goals. Overall, Paper Machine Clothing delivers excellent financial results and going forward, we forecast low single digit revenue growth prospects. In our Engineered Composites segment, we recorded revenues of $99,000,000 impacted by additional EAC adjustments in the fourth quarter and lower LEAP revenues.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

These EAC adjustments were driven by the CH-fifty three ks and the Gulfstream programs. We continue to make progress on the CH-fifty three ks program, but needed further adjustments to our EAC due to learning curve and material challenges. Our new leadership team in Salt Lake City is establishing robust processes and has invested in training and the frontline leadership enabling growth and learning curve improvements. The CH-fifty two ks is a large program and our operating plan is aligned with our customer and their projected growth rate. This will be a significant and profitable program for us well into the middle of next decade.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

After LEAP, CH-fifty three ks will be our largest program in terms of revenue. For Gulfstream, we're also making progress on manufacturing the parts and have a reduced volume exposure coming into 2025. We're growing more confident about space as an additional source of long term revenue. In the quarter, we signed an LTA with a customer and anticipate solid growth from this and other customers in the medium and long term. In 2025 and the next several years, we also project growth in advanced air mobility with both traditional composite structures as well as our proprietary three d woven technology.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

On LEAP, we continue to monitor the situation at Boeing and are taking a conservative approach and projecting lower volumes both at LEAP and our other Boeing programs. As a result, we're projecting LEAP revenues of approximately $150,000,000 for 2025. We remain ready with ample capacity to ramp up our production quickly as demand recovers. We work closely with Safran and monitor Airbus and Boeing recovery and are encouraged by some of the news from both Boeing and Airbus. Our defense business is positioned to grow with JASM and Lurasim generally stable and with significant growth potential in the medium term.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Hypersonics is developing with multiple opportunities and we have invested internal funds supplemented by customer funding in this technology. With our near net shape part approach and investment in capability and capacity, hypersonic parts will be a significant growth engine in the medium and long term. During the quarter, we were awarded long term contracts for both existing and new customers of $138,000,000 As these awards translate into purchase orders, they will be added to our existing AEC backlog, which at year end was $1,400,000,000 This is backlog that does not include LEAP volumes beyond the current year and only relates to our other AEC platforms. This does provide us visibility and confidence into our business opportunities and performance beyond 2025. Overall, 2024 was a year of integration and optimization at Machine Clothing, while at AAC we did a reset and took several actions to stabilize and improve operations to enable future growth and improving profitability.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

With all the opportunities for growth at AEC, this is a necessary and critical action that will pay major dividends for our growth ahead. We exited 2024 with one of our best years on record for cash generation with a stronger operational structure and have returned cash to shareholders through our share repurchase program and dividends. In 2025, we will strengthen our foundation to deliver future growth. Material science is a foundation of our businesses and our ability to continuously develop around our materials and weaving technologies give us an enviable position in our markets. We will continue to focus on cash, capital deployment and strong business performance.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

At MC, the integration of Heimach remains center stage. We recently announced that we are consolidating two facilities and we are also divesting a non core business in Italy. At AEC, the team is taking major steps to improve the operations as well as adding additional top talent in operations, planning and supply chain management, enabling improvements in systems, processes and workforce. All this realignment and effort sets us up for much healthier and successful next growth spurt. As we grow and strengthen the business, this year we will also consolidate all headquarter employees in the new office in Portsmouth, New Hampshire to get the benefit of having the team together as well as improved access to talent for key corporate roles.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

We've been moving mid year twenty twenty five and will close down our Albany, New York office while making the current Rochester office available to AEC. The transition will take approximately one year. Additionally, we are overhauling our executive compensation program. Last year, we included cash performance in the short term incentive compensation. For 2025, we will change the long term incentive compensation from 100% EBITDA to one third total shareholder return, one third return on invested capital and one third EBITDA.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

We believe these actions will further align incentive compensation with long term value creation. Looking forward, we are in excellent financial position with strong cash flow and a supportive balance sheet to drive shareholder value and achieve our long term objectives. While discrete items have impacted our short term run rate and outlook, we have completed the vast majority of the hard work to address the issues. Our Heimark integration is well underway with key actions announced and we have rebalanced our program outlook at AEC to better reflect our current conditions. These actions combined with enhancements we have made to our leadership team over the past twelve months, position us to focus on our long term plan.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

In the coming months, we will share more details with specific targets, but we are focused on these three primary goals. First, with much of the integration activities behind us, we're focused on growth in the Machine Clothing segment over the next five years. We believe there is opportunity for growth with our technology, product and manufacturing leadership. Second, we are fortunate to have won a wide range of programs at AEC across structures, engine and with our proprietary material science advantage. Taken together with the refinements we have made to key programs in 2024, this positions us for robust segment growth on the top line with compelling contribution margins over the long term.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

And third, to a disciplined capital allocation program, we can enhance our overall growth rate through additional R and D investments and inorganic initiatives. We have $1,000,000,000 in dry powder and will take advantage of both organic and inorganic opportunities. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank our investors for the support through 2024, as well as our employees for their hard work and dedication. With that, I'll now hand it over to Rob to provide more details on the quarter. Rob?

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Thank you, Gunnar, and good morning, everyone. I will review our fourth quarter results and then provide our outlook for 2025. Before reviewing our fourth quarter results, I wanted to discuss an important change that we made in the fourth quarter regarding how we report our Global Information costs. Previously, our Global Information System costs or GIS were shown in aggregate as part of corporate SG and A expenses, and we are now reporting those costs at the segment level. It is our view that this better reflects the performance of the individual segments and is how we will review segment performance on a go forward basis.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Our consolidated EPS remains unchanged and and the individual gross margins for the individual segments remain the same, but our adjusted EBITDA margins for the individual segments will be impacted by this allocation. For Q4, we will discuss margins with and without the allocation for comparison purposes, But starting in 2025, our conversation will focus on the margins, including GIS costs. Consolidated net sales came in at $287,000,000 down from three twenty four million dollars in the fourth quarter last year, primarily driven by lower revenue at AEC, which we will discuss further. Machine Clothing net sales of $188,000,000 decreased 1.9% versus the fourth quarter of the prior year, primarily driven by a comparison to a strong fourth quarter in 2023 in the packaging and publication grades in North America, offset with increased sales in engineered fabrics. AEC net sales of $99,000,000 were lower versus the $132,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three on a GAAP basis, primarily due to a $14,000,000 negative top line impact from the EAC adjustments in the quarter, coupled with lower LEAP revenues of $10,000,000 and lower seven eighty seven volumes of $2,000,000 However, we continue to experience growth in our space and advanced air mobility platforms.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Of the $15,000,000 in negative EAC adjustments recognized in the quarter, $9,000,000 related to the CA-fifty three program and $3,000,000 related to Gulfstream with the remaining amount across a number of programs. Consolidated gross profit was $90,000,000 down from $120,000,000 in the prior year, driven by the EAC cumulative catch up adjustment of $15,000,000 and $10,000,000 at machine clothing due to lower gross margins at Heimbach. Machine clothing gross margin decreased from 48.8 percent in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three to 44.4% in 2024, largely due to lower gross margins at Heimach. AEC gross margins decreased from 20% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three to 6.8%, primarily driven by EAC adjustments that were detailed previously. Net R and D expenses remained relatively flat in the fourth quarter versus the prior year and were at 4% of revenue.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Consolidated SG and A expenses as a percentage of revenue for the quarter were down from 20.9 in the prior year to 16.9% due to reduced wages and benefits, lower incentive compensation and foreign exchange impacts. Corporate expenses adjusted for GIS expenses allocated to the divisions were at $10,000,000 or 3.4% of revenue versus $7,000,000 or 2.3% of revenue in the prior year. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 28% versus 22.6% in the prior year, mainly due to a shift in taxable income to higher rate jurisdictions, as well as due to less favorable discrete tax adjustments as compared to the prior year. GAAP net income attributable to the company for the quarter was $18,000,000 compared to $30,000,000 last year, the reduction largely due to the EAC adjustments. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.56 per share in this quarter versus $0.97 in the same period last year.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

After adjustments primarily related to Heimach acquisition and other restructuring activities as detailed in our non GAAP reconciliation, the adjusted diluted EPS was $0.58 versus $1.22 in the same period last year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $50,000,000 for the fourth quarter versus $75,000,000 in the prior year period. Machine Clothing adjusted EBITDA, including GIS costs, was $54,000,000 a decrease of $8,600,000 versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 28.5% versus 30.6% in the prior year. Excluding GIS costs, machine clothing adjusted EBITDA margins were 30.3% for the current fourth quarter as compared to 32.1% in the prior year.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

AEC adjusted EBITDA including GIS cost was $6,000,000 as compared to $24,000,000 in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margins at AEC were 6.1% of sales versus 18% in the prior year. Excluding GIS cost, AEC adjusted margins were 9.3% for the fourth quarter as compared to 20.5% in the prior year. During the quarter, free cash flow was $59,000,000 with positive operating cash flow of $78,000,000 offset by capital expenditures of $19,000,000 This brings our year to date free cash flow to $137,000,000 versus $64,000,000 in the prior year. Our balance sheet remains strong with a cash balance of over $115,000,000 and $482,000,000 of borrowing capacity under our committed credit facility.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Before discussing our outlook for 2025, I want to highlight that our outlook does not reflect the costs associated with our headquarter consolidation, which are currently estimated to be between $6,000,000 and $8,000,000 The low end of our guidance reflects weaker than expected economic conditions, most notably in Europe, combined with challenges in our key AEC programs. The high end of our guide reflects better than expected recovery in our European and Asian markets for machine clothing. At AEC, upside to the midpoint of our guide represents higher LEAP volumes and accelerated growth in our advanced air mobility platforms. In 2025, we expect machine closings top line to decline by approximately 3%, largely due to foreign exchange headwinds and our decision to divest non core assets. Adjusting for those two items, sales on a comparable basis is forecast to grow by approximately 2% as compared to a decline in the prior year.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Our continued focus on delivering Heimach synergies and operational efficiencies is forecast to result in an approximate 150 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year. AEC's top line will show modest growth led by CH-fifty three ks and Avance Air Mobility, largely offset by LEAP. In 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins of slightly more than 13% at the midpoint of our range. Again, as a reminder, our adjusted EBITDA margins for both our segments now include GIS costs and are not strictly comparable to the prior years. The impact is approximately 3% for AEC margins and approximately 2% for machine clothing margins.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

In total, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow by approximately 8% in spite of FX headwinds and our investment in new business ventures, reflecting improved underlying performance at machine clothing combined with recovery at AEC. We are however facing certain EPS headwinds below the line. Our interest expense is forecasted to increase as our prior interest rate swaps, which were placed back in 2021, expired in the fourth quarter of last year. We have partially offset this by significantly reducing our debt balance, utilizing euro debt to take advantage of natural hedge opportunities and placing new hedges. This has all helped to offset the overall impact of the interest cost increase.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Our interest cost is projected to increase by approximately $5,000,000 in 2025. The second headwind we face is with respect to our tax rate that is expected to increase to 31% in 2025. This is due to a shift in taxable income to higher rate jurisdictions. Please note that our 2024 effective rate of 24.8% benefited from a number of discrete items that are not forecasted to repeat in 2025. All of this translates to an EPS range for 2025 between $3 and $3.4 with the midpoint of our guide at $3.2 In terms of net earnings cadence, we expect 60% of our net earnings to be recorded in the second half of twenty twenty five and project Q2 results to be stronger than Q1.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

This is due to the expected rapid AEC combined with the acceleration of Heimbach synergies. Now I'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer And our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

[Chigusa Katoku, Vice President, Equity Research at JP Morgan Chase & Co]

Hi. This is Chigusa Kotoku on for Steve. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on AAC. You provided an update on CH-53K and Gulfstream where you've been seeing some challenges, but what's embedded in your 25% outlook as to how these progress through the year?

[Chigusa Katoku, Vice President, Equity Research at JP Morgan Chase & Co]

And then on the AEC margins, it's implied in like the 13.5% range for 2025% versus the 4Q exit rate of 6%. But how do you kind of expect the margin to ramp through the year? You probably can't get back to the 20% because of the cost reallocation. But can you get back to like the 17% range adjusting for the 3% impact that you mentioned maybe in the back half?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Also, the plan for 2025 is with the current projection of performance at AUC. We believe that over time we can and with the adjustment from GIS, we can be in the mid to high teens performance. And it will take us going through 2025, but our plan now with our current projection is as stated, Chigusa.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Yes. Chigusa, I just if I may, the way to think about it is these EAC adjustments that we've taken through the fourth quarter reflect our best estimate of the go forward margins, which are reflected in our outlook at 13.5%. To Ganar's point, we have a number of actions in place to do better than that over time. But I think just important to remember that the guide reflects an EAC that is our current best estimate as to how the program is going to perform going forward.

[Chigusa Katoku, Vice President, Equity Research at JP Morgan Chase & Co]

Okay, thanks. And then as a follow-up on the free cash flow, you did well over 100% this year, which is great, but how should we think about that for 2025 and then maybe on a go forward basis as some of these ramp issues are resolved? Thanks.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Yes. No, no, it's a good question. We expect cash flow to range between, let's call it, $90,000,000 and about $120,000,000 this year. Our internal targets are to return net cash flow above 90% of net income in terms of our conversion. That's really what we target.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

And the team has done a phenomenal job at really attacking the working capital balances. So what you saw this year is probably a slight level of over performance in terms of taking down the working capital. But going forward, and as Gunnar mentioned with our new incentive comp structures, right, people are aligned to focus on cash and balance sheet efficiency.

[Chigusa Katoku, Vice President, Equity Research at JP Morgan Chase & Co]

Okay, great. Thank you.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Thank you, Chigusa.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co]

Yes. Good morning, Gunnar and Rob. Gunnar, could you hey, Rob. Gunnar, could you maybe talk a little bit about you mentioned a more conservative kind of view on Boeing's production rates. I'm just trying to square that with obviously we're seeing higher potential rate breaks.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co]

Is it more of an inventory issue or just cautiousness just given the history that we've seen with Boeing in the last couple of years?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

That's a good question, Peter. And I there is a function of inventory that we're working through, but we are being cautious. And as I talk to others in the industry, I think we're not alone about being cautious about the recovery. It is like I said, it is it has some positive signs on what the delivery is, but I am cautious to see the actual move rate at Boeing before we make adjustments. And also on LEAP specifically, we're working with Safran.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

We're aligned on our build plan there and we are continuously this is a month by month. I am beginning to be hopeful that there could be a ramp up towards the end of the year because there is light at the end of the tunnel and next year is going to be a strong year, I firmly believe. So the wrap up there is what we're preparing for right now.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

And Peter, just one other thing there. Based on our manufacturing footprint and our experience with the program, we have the ability to ramp very quickly. So we have the flexibility to adjust to market conditions as they evolve.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co]

Okay. So potentially cadence, potentially higher in the back half of the year if need be. So Gunnar, just also on the CH-53K, obviously, you've replaced the team there last year, you're feeling confident about that team. Just how do you kind of talk about just kind of some of the challenges that you worked through this past quarter and how do we think about that, the improvement for that program as we go into 2025?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Yes. I would say in fourth quarter, a lot of the actions there were with Chris Stone at the helm. He got in there, worked with our frontline leadership development, with our training of our employees, with the processes. The two areas of focus outside the factory were supply chain. The supply chain is quite extensive on this program with our internal supply chain is much easier to balance than the external supply chain and then the planning.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

So supply chain planning, training and frontline leadership have been the key areas of improvements. And we've also made in first quarter this year, we've made a or added talent in those areas. So we have operational leadership that has strong background in assembly of complex aircraft. We have planning talent that has strong background in aircraft assembly and we have a new supply chain leader for AEC that also has strong background in complex supply chain. So with the focus on the improvements as well as adding the talent in there, that's what gives me the confidence about the path forward.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co]

I appreciate the color. And then just lastly, Rob, just around working capital, how do we think about that or cadence wise for this year?

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Yes. We're going to continue to focus on working capital. I think what you're going to see is we're going to continue to make some headway on our working capital balance this year. We expect our net earnings clearly to be higher, minus all these adjustments. So once again, the team has just done a phenomenal job.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

And this

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

is

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

also whether it's supply chain, working with our vendors and our customers, right, everyone's kind of chipping in to continue to work at it. Because I think in particular as we integrate Heimbach, we're finding opportunities of machine clothing as well to take down the working capital balances.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co]

Got it. I appreciate the color. I'll jump back in queue. Thanks guys.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Thank you, Peter.

[Operator]

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Suri Securities. Your line is open.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director - Aerospace & Defense Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Hey, morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess just back to LEAP, thinking about where planned production is of LEAP volumes this year, I guess, up 15% to 20%, I think, I don't know if the math is exactly accurate, Maybe you guys are down 10% to 12%. So presumably all destocking and is that how we should think about the inventory in the channel?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

There is some destocking across the whole channel and I would say that's first half, Michael. And then we're ready for what happens in the second half depending on how the recovery and the ability of Airbus frankly to grow. Remember, Airbus is a major part of the LEAP program and so we're monitoring that as well.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Yes. And Mike, I mean, I'm sorry you know, right, last year, both Safran and GE had started the year in 24% with 20% to 25% growth expectations for the lead deliveries. And that ratcheted down to where we ended, I think down probably 10% or 15%. So when Gennaro mentioned that we're being a little bit conservative, that is really what we're trying to do is not get too far ahead and partnering with Safran, right? They see the same thing.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

So and we have the ability to flex.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director - Aerospace & Defense Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Got it. That makes sense. And then just on the new comp structure, Rob, maybe I guess two questions. I mean, I think you said total shareholder return was one of the bogies there. But if I think about kind of the EACs you've taken it, I don't know if you can share if your AUC margins have been sort of structurally pressured here and why are EBITDA margins I guess I interpret that as absolute EBITDA dollars being part of the bogey, but is it more challenging to think about EBITDA margins on a go forward basis given some of the execution and even maybe other new start programs that we might not be aware of?

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Yes. So if I think about your question, the long term comp, right, as Gunnar mentioned, has an adjusted EBITDA component to it. And that level is set in conjunction with work with the Board on our long term plan based on which is going to reflect kind of the go forward margin expectation for the businesses. And as you can appreciate, the plan is definitely success oriented. I mean, it's definitely a target that is not easy to achieve, right?

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

The Board wants us on our front foot. And then the shareholder return, I mean, that is something that's new. I mean, I would say we did a lot of work with our outside compensation consultant to design a structure that should drive long term shareholder creation, especially with the addition of ROIC. That is something in terms of capital efficiency on the balance sheet that we are very focused on as we deploy capital. So that is something that we feel really good about where that long term comp structure is headed.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

And we really believe that diversifying the metrics will result in long term shareholder value creation.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

So if I may add, the EBITDA is dollar and we have it in both the short term and the long term. So returns in the short term and long term remains important to us. We added the cash into short term because we wanted to focus there on working capital and making sure that we converted our earnings to cash so that we could use it for all the other things that we're trying to do. But then in the long term, the relative total shareholder return is an important metric for us as well as the return on invested capital. So I think it is a much healthier setup for the long term incentive.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

But we're both interested in how we spend our capital as well as the earnings that we make.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director - Aerospace & Defense Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Got it. Fair. All right. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back in the queue.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Thanks,

[Operator]

And we have a question coming from the line of Jordan Leone with Bank of America. Your line is open.

[Jordan Lyonnais, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Hey, good morning.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Good morning.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Good morning, Jordan.

[Jordan Lyonnais, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Could you guys talk through how you're thinking about tariff risk and increased pressure just with trade for China and is it contemplated in your guide and if it is to what degree?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Yes. I mean, it I would say that uncertainty is high and we're not making any reactions to the uncertainty right now. We're doing a lot of analysis on potential impacts and our reaction once a decision is made. The impact with China is de minimis. So we've done all of the staff, the hard staff work to be ready for this.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Where it will end up, I cannot predict, Jordan.

[Jordan Lyonnais, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

No, that's fair. I just wanted to see how you guys are thinking about it. And then two, on the new defense programs that you guys have coming up that you're ramping on, are you concerned at all with the new administration's focus on driving costs down? You'll see that pressure from the primes on those contracts?

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Yes, I think there might be some pressure on certain programs, which programs will be targeted is uncertain. Our position on those targets or on our programs are because we do have an increased focus on long term contracts. I feel fairly certain about our stability in the long term there. The volumes could change. And I would say they could change in both directions depending on which program you're on.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

So we're watching that diligently. And again, there's a lot of uncertainty. Nobody likes the uncertainty, but we are working through scenarios where we think that there might be exposure, right. So this is taking a lot of our time, Jordan.

[Jordan Lyonnais, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Thank you. Appreciate the time.

[Robert Starr, EVP & CFO at Albany International]

Thank you.

[Operator]

That concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Gunnar Cleveland for closing remarks.

[Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO at Albany International]

Thank you, and thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your continued interest in Albany International. Thank you, and have a good day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• JC Chetnani, VP - Investor Relations & Treasurer
• Gunnar Kleveland, President & CEO
• Robert Starr, EVP & CFO

Analysts

• Chigusa Katoku, Vice President, Equity Research at JP Morgan Chase & Co
• Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co
• Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director - Aerospace & Defense Equity Research at Truist Securities
• Jordan Lyonnais, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America