National CineMedia Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
March 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Q4 financial results: NCM reported revenue of $86.3 M and adjusted OIBDA of $35 M, both exceeding guidance, driven by strong scatter market participation (51% of national on-screen revenue).
  • Box office momentum: The overall industry saw a 26% year-over-year lift in Q4 box office to $2.4 B and a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend ($420 M), underpinning NCM’s 4th quarter attendance of 101 M.
  • Engaged young audiences: Gen Z and millennials accounted for 69% of viewership (median age 30), giving NCM unique reach compared to sports programming and attracting 25 new advertisers in Q4.
  • Data-driven advertising: Nearly half of NCM’s ad revenue now stems from its NCMX intelligence platform, which delivered a 47% average lift in retail foot traffic for major retail clients in Q4.
  • Positive outlook: While Q1 2025 is expected to be softer (revenue $34–36 M, adj OIBDA –$9.5 to –$7.5 M), an improved film slate, strong Q2 pacing and strategic investments in programmatic, self-serve and sales expansion support confidence for the full year.
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Earnings Conference Call
National CineMedia Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good day, and welcome to the National CineMedia Inc. Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chan Park, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

Chan Park
Chan Park
VP of Finance at National CineMedia Inc

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Lesinski, and our Chief Financial Officer, Ronnie Ng. I would like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, and section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. All statements other than statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures.

Chan Park
Chan Park
VP of Finance at National CineMedia Inc

In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release or on the investor relations page of our website at ncm.com. Today, we will be discussing NCM LLC's operating results as they relate to the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, which are largely similar to NCM Inc.'s results. We're reporting NCM LLC's operating results to provide an accurate comparison to the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, when we also reported NCM LLC's results given fiscal year 2023 results were unconsolidated. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Thank you, Chan, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. Before we begin, I want to take a moment to address the devastating wildfires that have swept through Southern California. Our hearts go out to all those impacted by this tragedy: families who have lost their homes, communities facing unimaginable hardship, and the brave first responders who risked their lives to protect others. For many of us, including myself, this is not just a news story; it is personal. Southern California is my home and home to many of our employees, partners, friends, and loved ones. We stand in solidarity with everyone affected, and we are committed to supporting recovery efforts in every way we can. While the fires have been contained, we know the road to recovery will be long.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Our thoughts remain with those who are grieving, rebuilding, and finding the strength to move forward. We are here with you today and for the journey ahead. Moving on to our earnings. We're excited to share the highlights of what has been another landmark year for NCM and the cinema industry as a whole. This year's performance demonstrated the resilience of cinema advertising and the ongoing appeal of theatrical experiences for moviegoers. Let's dive into the details. The fourth quarter of 2024 was a great success for the box office, exceeding most industry expectations. The total box office for the quarter generated approximately $2.4 billion, marking a 26% increase year- over-year. This success was driven by a diverse slate of films, from massive tentpole releases to breakout hits. Wicked: Part One generated $433 million in the quarter and shattered records for a November release.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Disney's Moana 2 followed closely behind with $404 million and cemented itself as a key player in the studio's animated film library, appealing to audiences both young and old. Other highlights included Gladiator 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Mufasa: The Lion King, which brought in nearly $450 million combined. Thanksgiving weekend 2024 was an especially historic moment for the domestic box office. The industry brought in $420 million over the Thanksgiving weekend, breaking the previous all-time record of $315 million set in 2018. December 2024 was also exceptionally strong, featuring a wave of highly anticipated films, driving the fifth highest grossing month since 2019. Looking at the year as a whole, the total domestic box office for 2024 reached $8.6 billion, driven by a robust second half.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

While the first half of 2024 was impacted by the residual effects of the 2023 industry strikes, the second half recovery underscored moviegoers' enduring passion for the cinema, culminating in the fourth quarter. Notably, approximately 80 additional movies were released that drew meaningful attendance on top of the planned slate, keeping theaters buzzing with a diverse range of content. Inside Out 2 was the highest-grossing movie of 2024, marking the first time that an animated movie has been crowned the highest-grossing film of the year since Finding Dory became the highest-grossing movie of 2016. Additionally, Deadpool & Wolverine, the second highest-grossing film of 2024, had the sixth biggest domestic opening of all time among any film and broke the record for the highest-grossing R-rated film domestically. The strength of our core audience, which is predominantly made of Gen Z and Millennials, continues to be a key driver of our success.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

These groups accounted for 69% of our total viewership in the fourth quarter, cumulatively reaching over 43 million moviegoers. Gen Z, in particular, represents 38% of our audience, maintaining a strong 6.6 weekly rating throughout the quarter. Our reach with this young, highly sought-after audience compares favorably to sports programming. For example, the recent Super Bowl drew an audience with a median age of 48, with Gen Z comprising just 12% of viewers. Meanwhile, NCM's audience has a median age of 30, and among the coveted 18-year old-34-year-old demographic, 57 million individuals attended NCM theaters, averaging a 6.1 weekly rating in the fourth quarter. This demographic remains critical for advertisers, and we're proud to have captured such a significant share of their attention. In fact, seven of the top 10 event programs among 18-34-year-olds in 2024 were theatrical releases within the NCM network.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

The other three were NFL football games. As we've discussed in prior quarters, we see a continued shift in how advertisers allocate their spending. Increasingly, brands are moving away from saturated streaming and video platforms and turning to cinema, which offers broader reach and greater engagement. Advertisers realize that platforms like NCM deliver a unique and powerful opportunity to connect with audiences. In the fourth quarter, we welcomed 25 new advertisers who launched major cinema campaigns for the first time since the pandemic. These brands are drawn to NCM for our ability to deliver unmatched audience engagement tied to culturally relevant content and for our proven track record of driving measurable results, including in-store traffic and online sales. Now onto our results. The fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter where our results surpassed our expectations, reflecting our strategic focus on advertising growth as the box office continues its momentum.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

For the fourth quarter of 2024, NCM reported revenue of $86.3 million, which slightly exceeded our revenue guide of $82 million-$86 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $35 million, well surpassing our guidance range of $28 million-$30 million. Approximately 51% of the fourth quarter's national on-screen revenue was attributed to the scatter market as advertisers continued to demonstrate interest in closer-to-campaign real-time solutions. During the fourth quarter, NCM partnered with 84 unique advertisers, with retail emerging as the top advertising category for the quarter. We also saw significant growth from wireless and insurance advertisers, as well as strong performance in the travel and leisure sectors. Our fourth quarter attendance of 101 million attendees was buoyed by new titles in the movie slate, led by Wicked: Part One, Moana 2, and The Wild Robot. For the full year, NCM results were approximately in line with the domestic box office.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Specifically, NCM reported full year 2024 revenue of $240.8 million compared to $259.8 million in 2023, and adjusted EBITDA of $45.7 million compared to $52.7 million. Despite the industry-wide headwinds in the first half of the year, our total 2024 attendance was 390.7 million, primarily driven by the open performance of key titles, including Inside Out 2, Wicked: Part One, and Deadpool & Wolverine. Our Platinum advertising product continues to be a key growth driver for NCM. Sales have increased significantly for this top-tier inventory, with revenue more than doubling year-over-year. This growth was driven primarily by strength across the government, wireless, entertainment, and dining categories. Fourth quarter Platinum revenue was up 28% over the prior year period, and we are encouraged by continued demand for this premium offering by category-leading advertisers. Additionally, our standout attention ratings enable brands to push the boundaries of traditional advertising.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

NCM brought Xfinity's campaign for Universal's Wicked: Part One to life in the first-ever U.S. 4DX ad, running via Platinum, combining dynamic on-screen visuals with synchronized movie seats and hyper-realistic environmental effects. We ran another unique campaign with US Cellular, who was looking for an out-of-the-box opportunity to help increase local awareness and sales. NCM set up US Cellular branded activation in select theaters, connecting the brand with current and prospective customers on a one-on-one basis. These campaigns highlight how advertisers can creatively engage NCM's audience through immersive and experiential solutions. Our industry-leading data intelligence platform, NCMX, is playing an increasing role in our success. We continue to leverage NCMX to create measurable impact and value for our advertising partners, offering strategic audience insights, performance attribution, continued engagement, and cross-channel reach.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

In the fourth quarter, NCM successfully delivered on key performance indicators for major retail advertisers, driving thousands of incremental visits to brands featured on our screens. On average, these brands saw a 47% lift in retail foot traffic, thanks to the power of NCM moviegoers. Nearly half of our sales revenue is now supported by NCMX initiatives, as advertisers continue to leverage these advanced measurement tools to optimize their campaigns and maximize ROI. As we look to 2025 as a whole, we're encouraged by the continuation of the momentum we saw in the fourth quarter, both within our business and across the cinema industry. This said, we expect some near-term variability in the first half of 2025. For the first quarter, we're expecting softer performance compared with the prior year, driven by a weaker slate, and consequently, a slight decline in attendance year-over-year.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

While the advertising market is seasonally slower in the fourth quarter, we are also seeing headwinds from reductions in government spending and ongoing tariff uncertainty, leading advertisers in certain categories to delay spending to later in the year. Ronnie will provide further detail on these factors. Despite these near-term headwinds, we are encouraged by the strong sales pacing we're already seeing for the second quarter, signaling positive momentum for the remainder of the year. Our focus remains on innovation and growth as we continue to invest in our client solutions, including programmatic and self-serve, which we expect to continue to grow in revenue in the coming years. With that, I will turn the call over to Ronnie to provide you with more details on our operating results and future outlook.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Thank you, Tom, and good afternoon, everyone.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

As Tom noted, the fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter where the company's results surpassed our expectations, with both revenue and adjusted OIBDA exceeding our guidance. Despite a challenging advertising climate due to an unfavorable mix of harder-to-monetize G and PG-rated movies and anticipated additions to the film slate, we continue to demonstrate strong execution as we focus on the monetization of our inventory and disciplined management of our business. NCM LLC's total revenue for the fourth quarter was $86.3 million, which exceeded our revenue guidance of $82 million-$86 million and is compared to the prior year's revenue of $90.9 million. National advertising revenue decreased to $69.2 million compared to $71.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by a 22% decrease in utilization, while pricing remained flat.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Local and regional advertising revenue was $13.5 million compared to $16.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, largely driven by reduced contract sizes across regional and local businesses. Total revenue for the quarter decreased 5% year-over-year, primarily due to the dynamics we explained when we provided guidance last quarter. The unusually high mix of harder-to-monetize G and PG-rated movies was especially impactful in December, when advertising demand is typically the highest. Additionally, the prior year's success of Taylor Swift's The Eras Tour concert film in October 2023 presented a challenging year-over-year comparison, and the window between Thanksgiving and Christmas, a period that is particularly popular for advertisers, was one of the shortest we've seen. The shortened holiday season, coupled with the election, which caused advertisers to delay ad spend decisions, ultimately impacted our top line.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Importantly, we see these trends as temporary, with audience mix expected to normalize and a strong film slate expected in 2025. Additionally, we are pleased with our revenue performance this quarter, especially given the sluggish start to the quarter due to the box office's underperformance in October. In particular, our team continued to expand our scatter participation, which increased to 45% of the mix versus the same quarter last year of 29%, mitigating the soft upfront market. Turning to our expenses, the fourth quarter operating expenses were $66.3 million compared to $70.4 million in the prior year, primarily driven by one-time expenses related to our Chapter 11 restructuring. Additionally, increased attendance in the fourth quarter resulted in higher exhibitor fees, which were fully offset by lower personnel and overhead expenses from cost savings initiatives.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Excluding one-time items, depreciation, amortization, and non-cash share-based compensation, our adjusted operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $51.3 million, which was in line with the same period last year. Fourth quarter adjusted OIBDA, excluding non-cash charges and one-time items, was $35 million compared to $39.8 million in the prior year. The variation in year-over-year results was primarily driven by the unfavorable impact from harder-to-monetize G and PG-rated movies and the absence of Taylor Swift's concert film from last year, as previously mentioned. That said, our adjusted OIBDA result well exceeded our guidance range of $28 million-$30 million. The outperformance was driven by lower-than-expected theater access fees and our successful cost savings initiatives. Total free cash flow for the quarter, as defined by cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, was $28.1 million, which represented an adjusted OIBDA to free cash flow conversion rate of 80%.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Turning to the full year, in 2024, NCM generated $240.8 million in total revenue compared to $259.8 million in 2023. These results were largely driven by lower attendance during the year, which ultimately resulted in higher revenue per attendee, up 4% versus the prior year. National advertising revenue was $188 million for the year, compared to $198.1 million in 2023, driven primarily by a weaker movie slate in the first half of 2024 due to the writer and actor strikes in the second half of 2023. Local and regional advertising was $39.1 million in 2024 compared to $51.1 million in 2023, driven by a decrease in contract activity from small businesses, which adopted a more cautious approach to advertising stemming from rising costs.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Including beverage revenue, total advertising revenue was $227.1 million, which was down 6% compared to the same period the previous year, while attendance declined 11% year-over-year. Beverage revenue derived from the ESA party's beverage agreement decreased from $18.6 million in the prior year to $13.7 million. The decrease was due to the termination of the Rego ESA in July of 2023 and the coinciding discontinuation of their beverage revenue, combined with a decrease in the remaining ESA Parties' attendance. Turning to our expenses, for full year 2024, operating expenses were $260.3 million, down from $440.7 million in the prior year, driven by the absence of one-time expenses related to our Chapter 11 restructuring. Including one-time items, depreciation, amortization, and non-cash share-based compensation, our adjusted operating expenses for 2024 were $195.1 million, down 6% year-over-year from $207.1 million.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

The reduction in adjusted operating expenses was primarily due to a decrease in exhibitor fees attributable to an 11% decrease in network attendance, coupled with decreases in SG&A expenses. Full year 2024 adjusted OIBDA, excluding non-cash charges and one-time items, was $45.7 million compared to $52.7 million in 2023, driven by the attendance loss and partially mitigated by strong scatter market performance and lower operating costs. Additionally, total free cash flow for the year of $54.5 million significantly outperformed full year 2023 levels of negative $48.8 million due to the absence of restructuring expenses. Turning to our consolidated balance sheet, at the end of the fourth quarter, the company had $78.2 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities, and total debt of $10 million, which was flat year-over-year. Notably, on January 24, 2025, we closed on a new revolving facility with U.S. Bank.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

The revolving facility reduced the cost of debt by over 200 basis points and our annual interest expense by $1 million. Importantly, the facility is a cash flow-based credit facility versus an asset-based facility, indicating the credit market's confidence in our business and our ability to generate consistent cash flows. Upon closing of the new facility with U.S. Bank, we repaid the entirety of our outstanding debt with CIT, meaning that, as of today, we have no outstanding long-term debt. To provide an update of our $100 million share repurchase program, as of December 26, 2024, we have repurchased 2.5 million shares for $13.4 million at an average share price of $5.28, as we continue to focus on returning value to our shareholders.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

While we plan to continue to opportunistically repurchase shares at prevailing market prices through April of 2027, we are also focused on strategically investing capital in growing our advertising network through new innovations such as programmatic and self-serve. Turning to our outlook, as we shared earlier, we are excited about the slate for 2025 and look forward to the continued box office momentum. While the first quarter slate is expected to be slightly softer than the same period last year, leading to a slight year-over-year decline in attendance, we see this as a temporary dynamic and what we expect to shape up to be a strong year overall. With this in mind, we expect first quarter revenue, which falls within a seasonally slower advertising period, to be between $34 million and $36 million.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

This not only reflects the expected reduction in impressions but also recent policy shifts relating to federal government spending and tariffs that have, in certain cases, delayed advertising spend to subsequent quarters within the year. As a result, we expect adjusted OIBDA for the first quarter of 2025 to be between -$9.5 million and -$7.5 million. In addition to the revenue impacts already discussed, the guidance reflects planned investment in sales and operations coupled with one-time expenses that were not incurred last year. That said, we do not see first quarter revenue and adjusted OIBDA being indicative of our full year results. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by the strength of our second quarter pipeline, which is currently pacing well ahead of last year.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

With an improving content lineup, growing advertising demand, and the continued expansion of our client solutions, we are confident in our ability to drive strong results as the year progresses. With that said, I would like to provide some additional context on our expectations for 2025. As we continue to position NCM for long-term success, we expect our annual SG&A expenses to increase by a high single-digit percentage in 2025. This increase reflects a deliberate and strategic investment in key areas that we expect will drive sustained growth, primarily expanding our sales team, enhancing targeted marketing efforts, and strengthening our operational infrastructure to support future revenue generation.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Additionally, we plan to increase our annual capital expenditures by $2 million-$3 million, which will mostly be one-time, with a majority of that related to delayed investment originally planned in 2024 and the remainder focused on upgrading our IT systems, sales technology, and research tools. These investments are highly targeted to enhance efficiency, improve scalability, and ensure we remain well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities. Importantly, we are making these investments with discipline and confidence, ensuring they generate meaningful value for both advertisers and our shareholders. Overall, we continue to expect 2025 to be another robust year for cinema. There are many films to be excited about as we look forward to 2025, both sequels and original content, such as Avatar: Fire & Ash, Wicked: Part Two, Snow White, Minecraft, The New Mission: Impossible, Superman, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and How to Train Your Dragon.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

NCM holds a distinctive advantage with its strong connection to highly valuable audiences, and we are confident that advertisers will continue to rely on NCM and the premium audiences we deliver as the box office gains momentum in 2025 and beyond. We will be providing more detail on what we expect for 2025 at our upcoming Investor Day in March. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question will come from Patrick Scholl with Barrington Research.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
CFO at National CineMedia Inc

Please go ahead.

Patrick Scholl
Patrick Scholl
Research Analyst at Barrington Research

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on what you expect, on how sort of temporary you expect you see these advertising headwinds as being. Specifically, if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the second half of the year, especially since that was kind of the stronger period for box office.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Hey, Patrick. It's Tom. I think what I would say is that the pacing in the second quarter is very encouraging compared to last year. First quarter is always kind of an odd quarter to forecast. I think some of the exogenous things out there, like the tariffs and policy shifts, affected some of the commitments.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

As I look at Q2, which is an important quarter and typically significantly larger than Q1, I'm looking at the pacing for Q2, which looks very good compared to the prior year. I can't really get into the second half yet, really, at this point, but we're very encouraged by what's going on in Q2 right now.

Patrick Scholl
Patrick Scholl
Research Analyst at Barrington Research

Okay. You had talked about some of the KPI-based ad sales. I was just wondering how that has supported advertiser retention, realizing it's earlier in that process, but both advertiser retention and efforts to increase the client base.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

What I can say in general is within our NCMX team that supports a lot of the outcome-based advertising commitments, basically half of our business is supported through NCMX, whether it's through a KPI or some other measurement. It's pretty much a significant piece of what we're doing every day.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

We're really encouraged by that, and we've put a lot of money and effort into it. We're really happy with the attention we're getting from our clients.

Patrick Scholl
Patrick Scholl
Research Analyst at Barrington Research

Okay. I guess the last question I had, you talked about bringing back more of the advertisers that hadn't been spending since COVID. I was kind of curious what sort of share of your national advertisers are maybe still on the sidelines on cinema advertising.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Can you say what % of them?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

What was the question again? I'm sorry.

Patrick Scholl
Patrick Scholl
Research Analyst at Barrington Research

The number of advertisers you had pre-pandemic, how many of them have yet to sort of return?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think we need to calculate that for you. I don't have that off the top of our head, but we can get it to you in short order.

Patrick Scholl
Patrick Scholl
Research Analyst at Barrington Research

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press star, then one.

Operator

Our next question will come from Mike Hickey with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Hey, Tom, Ronnie. Thanks for taking our questions here. And congratulations on a better-than-expected Q4 and 2024, especially with the headwinds on attendance. I guess that segues, Tom, it looks like 2025 and 2026, film volume is going higher. Obviously, the expectation here is we should continue to see a strong recovery in attendance. I guess the question is, what are your expectations for attendance growth in 2025, 2026? Is that sort of in line with what the market is thinking? And is higher attendance sort of the primary driver of your revenue growth, or do you see more of an opportunity today in better monetizing your existing ad inventory?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I would say attendance is always the number one driver.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think the quality of the attendance is probably the second driver in terms of the demographic mix. The more it's geared towards PG-13, the more we can monetize it. I think as I look at all of the forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and they're actually relatively uniform across the whole base of forecasters, I'm feeling pretty much in sync with most of the big analysts and most of the big forecasters in terms of how 2025 and particularly 2026 looks. I think, truthfully, this is an important year for the industry. It's the first real year without a strike and post-COVID. We're anxious to see how the movies perform and how many releases come out this year and next year. We have a very focused sales team talking about the year all the way out through the end of this year.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

The response we've gotten from advertisers in looking at the slate and looking at all the data around it is encouraging.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Yeah, it makes sense. I mean, I guess how is advertiser sentiment for your medium, Tom, sort of compared to prior year? Obviously, we knew there was some lack of product given the Hollywood strikes, and I think there was box office better than we thought. We thought it was going to be down 10%, did better than we thought, but obviously, we weren't expecting growth. We're expecting growth this year. Slate's improving. The demo you have is obviously very attractive, I would think, for media buyers. The attribution work you're doing is certainly something you never had before. It looks like you're getting good feedback. On the product side, programmatic, self-serve, obviously, those are sort of industry standards, and you're in the right direction there.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

I guess how is sentiment today, given all the improvements in the macro and in your business, and when do you think that'll sort of translate into the higher media buyers?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think the sentiment's really good right now. When you think about all the negative sentiment we had to deal with for the past several years, even in the first half of last year, I think we're finally in a state where there shouldn't be any surprises from an industry point of view. I think the advertising side of the story is actually looking really good. For the first time, we can really communicate with them looking at a schedule that's unencumbered by any of the crazy things that have impacted our industry.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think we're really lined up nicely with all of the capabilities that we've built over the last couple of years, particularly on the data side. We're really encouraged. Every now and again, you're going to have situations where a certain industry, in the case of government spending, creates a little bit of a hiccup on our forecasting, but I don't think anyone could have predicted that in Q1. As we look to Q2 and beyond, we're really optimistic about how the industry is going to be performing against the box office.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Is that higher advertiser sentiment, Tom, does that sort of put you in a better position this year in terms of driving maybe some growth in the upfront season? I know last year that was certainly not the case. Scatter was a larger factor. It seemed like that was more secular.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Given all the improvement in the market and your business, do you think you have a better shot at driving higher upfront?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think we'll do as well proportionally in the upfronts, given that our industry is doing really well compared to linear television and broadcast television. I think the question is, how are people buying versus how they used to buy? I do think we'll have a better upfront than we had last year. I think as you look at it, there's still an unusual mix between scatter and upfront where people are buying closer and closer to the actual broadcast date. Remember, you're right. Last year, when we were doing the upfront, there was still some uncertainty in the theatrical business. We were still coming off the strike. This next upfront should be probably the cleanest upfront we've had since 2019.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Nice.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

I know premium obviously has been a very hot area of the box office. I think you've been sort of trying to corner that market a little bit, Tom, through maybe IMAX and PLS. Just sort of what are you seeing in terms of advertiser demand to get on the premium screens? How big of a factor can that be for you in 2025 as we see?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Everybody wants to be on those premiums. Everyone wants to be on those premium screens. It is always a topic of discussion. As that is married to our Platinum inventory in particular, it is where the biggest advertisers want to go first. Whenever we are working either with a new advertiser or someone that is a particularly interesting piece of creative, they are always focused on Platinum and on these large-screen formats.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

I think as that trend continues, which it seems to be at all the major exhibitors in terms of their investment plans and their growth, that's only going to benefit us and help us from an advertiser interest point of view.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Last question from us, Tom. On the moving away from national, looking at the local regional piece of your business, obviously, pre-pandemic, it had pretty good scale. I think you've gone through here a restructuring process. Just what are you seeing, I guess, from your local and regional teams, the excitement there to sort of scale and grow the business in 2025 and 2026?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Historically, local pre-COVID was a really significant part of our business.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

During the COVID period and during even the recovery period, as we cut back on cost, local, I think, was impacted pretty significantly given what an individual sales sort of kind of business that is. We've reinvested in our sales team locally and allocated more resources to them. So we're really optimistic that local is going to have a nice comeback in 2025 and 2026.

Mike Hickey
Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Thank you, guys. Good luck.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

You're welcome.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Tom Lesinski for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Okay. Thank you for your questions, everyone, and your support of National CineMedia. With our unmatched scale, NCM has maintained its position as a top player in this premium video advertising space.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

This past year has proven that movies are thriving once again, and NCM is consistently connected to advertisers with high-value audiences, attracting both new and loyal brands to our platform every quarter. Further, we believe NCM is well-positioned for the future with strong growth catalysts, a fortified balance sheet, positive cash flow, and an opportunistic share repurchase program. As we look forward to 2025, we are energized by our momentum and eagerly anticipate the opportunities that wait us in this year ahead. As a final reminder, NCM will be hosting its 2025 Investor Day in New York City, Thursday, March 13th at 3:00 P.M. Excited for you to hear more about our strategy, innovation, and performance from myself, Ronnie, and other members of our talent management team. Finally, I want to thank our NCM team, as always, for their hard work and dedication.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
CEO at National CineMedia Inc

Thank you to our shareholders for their support as well. See you at the movies.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Ronnie Ng
      Ronnie Ng
      CFO
    • Chan Park
      Chan Park
      VP of Finance
    • Tom Lesinski
      Tom Lesinski
      CEO
Analysts
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