Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's first quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. TSMC is holding our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you're joining us through the conference call, your dial in lines are in listen only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang will summarize our operations in the first quarter twenty twenty five followed by our guidance for the second quarter twenty twenty five. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Doctor. C.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

C. Wei will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the line for questions and answers. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

And now, I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter twenty twenty five. After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter of twenty twenty five.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

First quarter revenue decreased 3.4% sequentially in NT dollar or 5.1% in U. S. Dollars as our business was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI related demand. In spite of the January twenty one earthquake and several aftershocks, we worked diligently to recover much of the lost production. Thus, our revenue in the first quarter was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Gross margin decreased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.8%, primarily due to the earthquake impact as well as the start of overseas dilution, partially offset by the cost improvement efforts. Total operating expenses accounted for 10.2% of net revenue. Operating margin decreased 0.5 percentage points sequentially to 48.5%. Overall, our first quarter EPS was dollars and ROE was 32.7%. Now let's move on to revenue by technology.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Three nanometer process technology contributed 22% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while five nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 3615% respectively. Advanced Technologies defined as seven nanometer and below accounted for 73% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 7% quarter over quarter to account for 59% of our first quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 22% to account for 28%.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

IoT decreased 9% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 14% and accounted for 5%. And DCE increased 8% to account for 1%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of NT2.7 trillion or US81 billion dollars On the liability side, current liabilities increased by billion dollars quarter over quarter, mainly due to the increase of NT111 billion dollars in accrued liabilities and others.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

The increase in accrued liabilities and others was mainly due to the accrual of income tax payables. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased one day to twenty eight days. Days of inventory increased three days to eighty three days, primarily due to the ramping of new overseas fabs. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the first quarter, we generated about NT626 billion in cash from operations, spent NT331 billion dollars in CapEx and distributed NT104 billion for second quarter twenty twenty four cash dividend. In addition, we raised NT16 billion dollars in cash from bond issuances.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Overall, our cash balance increased NT267 billion dollars to NT $2,400,000,000,000 at the end of the quarter. In U. S. Dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures totaled NT 10,060,000,000.00 I finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between $28.4 and $29,200,000,000 which represents a 13% sequential increase or a 38% year over year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of $1 to dollars gross margin is expected to be between 5759%, operating margin between 4749%. Also in the second quarter, we will need to accrue the tax on the undistributed earnings, retained earnings. As a result, our second quarter tax rate will be around 20%. The tax rate will then fall back to 14% to 15% level in the third and fourth quarter and the full year tax rate will be between 1617%.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

This concludes my financial presentation. Now, let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our first quarter twenty twenty five and second quarter of twenty twenty five profitability. Compared to fourth quarter, our first quarter gross margin slightly decreased by 20 basis points sequentially to 58.8%. This was primarily due to 60 basis points impact from the January and its aftershocks, as well as the start of dilution from our Kumamoto fab partially offset by cost improvement efforts.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We have just guided our second quarter gross margin to decrease by 80 basis points to 58% at the midpoint, primarily as the margin dilution impact from our Arizona fab starts to kick in. We expect the impact from overseas fab to grow more pronounced throughout the year as we ramp up further in Kumamoto and Arizona and forecast 2% to 3% margin dilution impact for the full year 2025. As we have said before, under today's fragmented globalization environment, overseas fabs costs are higher for everyone, including TSMC and all other semiconductor manufacturers. With our additional $100,000,000,000 investment plan in Arizona, we forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of our overseas fabs in the next five years to start from 2% to 3% every year in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We will also continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to manage the impact. Overall, with our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large scale production base, we expect TSMC to be the most efficient and cost effective manufacturer in the region that we operate. Thus, even considering our global manufacturing expansion plans, we believe a long term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable. Next, let me talk about our 2025 capital budget. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We reiterate our 2025 capital budget is expected to be between US38 billion and US42 billion dollars as we continue to invest to support customers' growth. About 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others. Our 2025 CapEx also includes a small amount related to our recently announced additional $100,000,000,000 investment plan to expand our capacity in Arizona. Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2025, We remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Now let me turn the microphone over to C. C.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near term demand outlook. But before that, I would like to mention the earthquake during Lunar New Year. On January 21, Taiwan experienced a 6.4 magnitude earthquake on the Richter scale, followed by several significant aftershocks.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Although a certain number of wafer in process were impacted and had to be scrapped, we worked tirelessly and were able to recover much of the lost production, demonstrating the resilience of our operation in Taiwan. I want to recognize and deeply thank all of our employees and our suppliers for their dedication and hard effort over the Lunar New Year holidays. I would also like to extend our great appreciation to our customers for their understanding and support during this time. Now let me talk about the first quarter's result. We conclude our fourth quarter with revenue of US25.5 billion dollars Our business in the fourth quarter was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI related demand.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Moving into second quarter twenty twenty five, we expect our business to be supported by strong growth of our three nanometer and five nanometer technologies. Looking at the full year of 2025, we expect Foundry two point zero industry growth to be supported by robust AI related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segment. In January, we had forecast Foundry two point zero industry to grow 10 points year over year in 2025, which is consistent with IDC's forecast of 11% year over year growth for Foundry two point zero. Now let me talk about the recent tariff. We understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

However, we have not seen any change in our customers' behavior so far. Therefore, we continue to expect our full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in U. S. Dollar term. We might get a better picture in the next few months and we will continue to closely monitor the potential impact to the end market demand and manage our business prudently.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Amidst uncertainties, we continue to focus on fundamentals of our business, which are technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust to further strengthen our competitive position. As such, we are confident TSMC can continue to outperform the Foundry two point zero industry growth in 2025. Now I will talk about our AI demand outlook. We continue to observe robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2025. We reaffirm our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

The AI accelerators we define as AI GPU, AI ASIC and the HBM controllers for AI training and inference in the data center. Based on our customers' strong demand, we are also working hard to double our cohorts capacity in 2025 to support their needs. Recent developments are also positive to AI's long term demand outlook. In our assessment, the imperilform AI reasoning models, including DeepSig, will drive greater efficiency and help lower the barrier to future AI development. This will lead to wider usage and greater adoption of AI models, which all require use of leading edge silicon.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thus, these developments only serve to strengthen our conviction in the long term growth opportunities from the industry megatrend of five gs, AI and HPC. To address the structural increase in the long term market demand profile, TSMC employed a disciplined and robust capacity planning system. This is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI related business. Externally, we work closely with our customers and our customers' customer to plan our capacity. Internally, our planning system involves multiple teams across several functions to assess and evaluate the market demand from both our top down and bottom up approach to determine the appropriate capacity build.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Based on our planning framework, we are confident that our revenue growth from AI accelerators will approach a mid-40s percentage CAGR for the next five years period starting from 2024. Next, let me talk about TSMC's additional US100 billion dollars investment plan to expand in Arizona. All our overseas decisions are based on our customers' need. They value some geographic flexibility and necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholders.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

With the strong collaboration and support from our leading U. S. Customers and The U. S. Federal, state and city governments, we recently announced our intention to invest an additional US100 billion dollars in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in The United States.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

This expansion includes plans for three additional wafer manufacturing fabs, two advanced packaging fabs and a major R and D center. Combined with our previously announced plan to build three advanced semiconductor manufacturing fab in Arizona, this brings our total investment in The U. S. To US165 billion to support the strong multiyear demand from our customers. Our first wave in Arizona has already successfully entered high volume production in 4Q twenty twenty four, utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our fab in Taiwan.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

The construction of our second fab, which will utilize a three nanometer process technology, is already complete, and we are working on speeding up the volume production schedule based on the strong AI related demand from our customers. Our third and fourth fab will utilize N2 and A16 process technologies and with the expectation of receiving all the necessary permits are scheduled to begin construction later this year. Our fifth and sixth fab will use even more advanced technologies. The construction and ramp schedule for this fab will be based on our customers' demand. We also plan to build two new advanced packaging facilities and establish an R and D center in Arizona to compete the AI supply chain.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Our expansion plan will enable TSMC to scale up to a Gigafab cluster to support the needs of our leading edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. With this additional U. S. 1,000,000,000 investment plan to expand our leading edge capacity in Arizona. I would also like to mention that TSMC is not engaged in any discussion with other companies regarding any joint venture technology licensing or technology transfer and sharing.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

After completion, around 30% of our two nanometer and more advanced capacity will be located in Arizona, creating an independent leading edge semiconductor manufacturing cluster in The U. S. It will also create greater economies of scale and help foster a more complete semiconductor supply chain ecosystem in The U. S. Thus TSMC Y continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success, while remaining a key partner and enabler of the strengths and leadership of The U.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

S. Semiconductor industry. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan Central Prefecture and local government, our first specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has already started volume production in late twenty twenty four with very good yield. The construction of our second special defect is scheduled to start later this year, subject to the readiness of the local infrastructure. In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission and the German federal state and city government.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We are on track with our plan to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany. In Taiwan, with support from the Taiwan government, we plan to build 11 wafer manufacturing fab and four advanced packaging facility over the next several years. Volume production of N2 is expected to start in second half twenty twenty five, and we are preparing for multiple phases of two nanometer fabs in both Shenzhou and the Kaohsiung Science Parks to support the strong structural demand from our customers. By expanding our global footprint while continuing investment in Taiwan, TSMC can continue to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the logic of the global logic IC industry for years to come, while delivering profitable growth for our shareholder. Finally, I'll talk about our N2 status and A16 introduction.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Two nanometer and A16 technology leads the industry in addressing the incessable need for energy efficient computing. And almost the innovators almost all the innovators are working with us. We expect the number of new tape out for two nanometer technology in first two years to be higher than both three nanometer five nanometer in their first two years, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications. N2W deliver four node performance and power benefits with 10% to 15% speed improvement at the same power or 20% to 30% power improvement at the same speed and more than 15% chip density increase as compared with N3E. N2 is well on track for volume production in second half of twenty twenty five as scheduled with a ramp profile similar to N3.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of N2 family. N2P features further performance and power benefits on top of N2 and volume production is scheduled for second half twenty twenty six. We also introduced A16 featuring superpower rail or SPR as a separate offering. Compared with the N2P, A16 provides a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain. A16 is best suited for specific HPC products with complex signal route and dense power delivery network.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Volume production is scheduled for second half twenty twenty six. We believe N2, N2P A16 and its derivatives will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunities well into the future. This concludes our key message and thank you for your attention.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thank you, Cici. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q and A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate to English before our management answers your question. For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star then one on your telephone keypad now.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Now let's begin the Q and A session. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?

Operator

The first one to ask question Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. And first of all, thanks for clearing the air on all those JV related news reports. Think a lot of people needed that. Thank you.

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

My first question is on AI demand. So, C. C, there has been a lot of talks about COBOS order adjustments and some concerns about AI demand. You did talk about COBOS capacity doubling. Could you talk a little bit about how you see demand versus supply?

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

I think last time we talked about this, you did indicate COWAS demand is still well above supply. Could you talk a little bit about how the situation is looking for COWAS demand versus supply this year? And maybe a little bit of early color on 2026 also as you plan for the capacity?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Thank you, Gokul. For everyone's benefit, let me try to summarize your first question. So again, Gokul's first question is on the AI related demand. He notes there's been a lot of noise around co ops and order cuts and such.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

So he would like to ask CC, what is the thinking or strategy for TSMC co ops still doubling this year? Is the demand still exceeding the supply? And how is the co op capacity and supply or supply and demand, I should say, look like going into 2026, if Cici is able to provide any color?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Goku. I know there's a lot of rumors about the cohorts. The last time when we talked about the cohorts, the demand is almost insane and much, much higher than we can prepare. And now it's a little bit better. I think still we need to build a lot of capacity to meet the demand.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

As I said, we have to double our cobas capacity, still fully loaded. And for 2026, I cannot say the number, but it's still a healthy momentum while we continued. Okay. Did that answer your question?

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

So do you still think 2026 is going to be supply limited still, that demand is still going to be much more than supply even in 2026? Is that your current expectation, you see?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

So Coco was asking, then do we still see demand exceeding supply for cobas in 2026?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Well, we will work very hard to make sure that we don't have this kind of demand is much, much higher than the capacity. We're working very hard. And I believe that it will be more balanced next year.

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Thank you. My second question is on The U. S. Investment and all this like persistent rumors about involvement in your competitors operations, etcetera. You have interacted with the U.

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

S. Government, the new administration for the last several months and CCU made the big announcement at the White House as well. Just wanted to understand what is TSMC's kind of impression in terms of what is required now that there is also the semiconductor tariff litigation going on. What is TSMC's impression of what is required over the next two, three years in terms of reassuring of capacity both from U. S.

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Administration perspective, also S. Customers perspective. And also I think Wendell also indicated that the margin dilution may be slightly bigger as we go along. So could you talk a little bit about how much of the value can you pass on to the customer as the expansion becomes a little bit more accelerated?

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Gokul's second question is a bit involved, but he's asking about again a lot of talk about our recent announcement for an additional $100,000,000,000 expansion in The U. S. Again, talk about this involving a competitor, CC has been speaking to the U. S.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Government. There's still potential semiconductor tariff. So his question is really from TSMC's point of view, what do we think is required for more on shoring in The U. S? Can we share the perspective from the U.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

S. Government or more directly what our customers are asking us to do in terms of reshoring. That's the first part. And the second part will maybe Wendell can address on the margin.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Really? Okay. I thought that's a very long, long question. Let me answer that. Yes, we indeed we have talked with U.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

S. Government Officials. And the reason we are spending in Arizona actually, let me say again, is all because of our customers' request. And that because of the very high, high demands. I announced it to in other occasions that very strong AI demand from U.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

S. Customers such as Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm and Qualcomm. And so that we need to expand our capacity in The U. S. And to support them.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We talked with the U. S. Government to ask for their help in getting the necessary permits so we can start the fab. And as a result, I would expect our two nanometers capacity around 30% will be in Arizona. And that will be also an independent leading edge semiconductor manufacturing cluster.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

And then Gokul, the second part of your question is related to then sorry, Wendell had mentioned that the margin may widen. So Gokul's second part of the question, I think, was related to pricing and what is our strategy or approach here as we expand overseas. Is that correct?

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Yes, that's right. Yes.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Gokul, you're asking about the pricing. As we always said, reflecting our value is a continuous and ongoing process for TSMC as we're in a very capital intensive business. So we need to have a very high gross margin to earn sustainable and healthy return. And that is why we set up our pricing strategy. Geographic manufacturing flexibility is an important part of our value proposition to the customers.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We are already discussing this with our major customers and the progress is so far so good.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Gokul?

Gokul Hariharan
Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Thank you. Operator, can we move on to the next participant please?

Operator

The next to ask question, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you for taking my question. I think the geopolitical risk, micro concerns is one of the major uncertainty nowadays. Last two days, we have like H20 being banned in China, blah, blah. So how does that impact to TSMC forecast and production planning?

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Do we have enough other customer and demand to keep our advanced node capacity fully utilized? Or how does that change our long term production planning moving forward?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Bruce, thank you. Your first question is related. He's talking about geopolitical risk or I guess some of the recent rules and announcements specifically the ban on H20. So his question is how does this impact TSMC's business? How does this impact our capacity planning and our strategies?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Bruce, let me answer this question. Of course, we do not comment on specific customers' product. But let me assure you that we have taken this into consideration when providing our full year's gross outlook. Did I answer the question?

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yes. But I want a little bit more about like I'm sure you guys did a lot of sensitivity analysis like what kind of impact it's going to be or can you show us like how much buffer we got you've assumed like how comfortable we have to maintain our current capacity planning moving forward or current utilization right now?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Bruce is asking for some more color in terms of what type of buffer or what type of room we have in making our decisions for the long term capacity planning.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Well, actually, we know a lot of people right now speculate a lot of things. But again, we certainly we are mindful of the potential impact from all the recent tariff announcement, especially the potential impact to the end market demand. We'll continue to watch it carefully. Having said that, we have not seen any change in our customers' behavior so far. And so we stick on our forecast.

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

I see. Thank you. Let me switch gear to a little bit for the non U. S. Capacity expansion.

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

I think as understand that the current capacity utilization for mature node is underutilized, Do we consider to slow down the capacity expansion in Japan or Europe or just relocate the current equipment from Taiwan to Japan or Europe instead of building the new We don't want why do we want to expand the capacity for the mature node, which management already mentioned that's an oversupply industry though. If we relocate them, we can squeeze more space, clean room in Taiwan for more advanced node.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Bruce's second question is around mature node and our expansion into Europe and Japan. His question really is given that the capacity of mature node and seven nanometer underutilized. Number one, are we concerning to slow down our expansions in these places? And then number two, would we consider using current relocate equipment from Taiwan to overseas rather than just the pure new expansion or greenfield expansion?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Bruce, let me answer the first part of the question. Are we considering slowing down? The answer is no. We are executing our plan as scheduled. The reason is very simple because of this kind of mature node is a specialty technologies that demand, which my competitor did not have a capacity or capability to support.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

So it's kind of a free form. You mentioned the underloading of the mature node. And so again,

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

I

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

would emphasize, no, we are not going to slow down our pain in Japan or in Germany? The second question is how to do it. You have a good idea about TSMC's confidential information. I'll let you know later.

Bruce Lu
Bruce Lu
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Thanks, Bruce. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator

Now the line is open to Charlie Zhang, Morgan Stanley.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good afternoon gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is really very specific on the semiconductor tariff on either Taiwan or TSMC's leading edge. So I'm wondering, first of all, does TSMC get involved in all those tariff negotiation between Taiwan government and the U. S.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Government? And secondly, do you believe that your commitment of billion dollars investments can get a spare on this semiconductor tariff? Because in your previous comment, you seem to only concern about the tariff impact on consumer tech demand. But I think global investors are also very concerned about additional tariffs on this semiconductor category. Can you give us some color?

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Let me summarize your question first question, Charlie. So Charlie's first question is on semiconductor tariffs. He wants to know what is our comment or view on potential tariffs on Taiwan, reciprocal tariffs or semiconductor specific tariffs. His question specifically is TSMC get involved in the negotiations between the Taiwan government and the U.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

S. Government.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Charlie, this kind of a tariff discussion is between countries. We are a private company. Certainly, no. We are not getting involved. What is the second

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

question?

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Yes. So actually, do you have any visibility that semiconductor specific tariffs can be exempt?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Charlie Sorry, Charlie, think your question was with our total investment of $165,000,000,000 in Arizona, do we believe does TSMC believe semiconductors will be exempt from these tariffs?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Charlie, all policy, especially this tariff decision, are governments have responsibility to decide. And as a private company, we are fully respectful of this, but we are not getting involved.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got you. I think you're too moderate, but let's move on to my second question. So based on your second quarter guidance, which is very strong, up 13% quarter on quarter, I can't help to think whether there are customers pulling given the tariffs or is there kind of re demand? And also based on your full year guidance so called mid-twenty percent, it seems like second half recovery will be very, very gradual or flattish.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So I'm wondering if you already bake in those kind of consumer tech demand impact. And if a tariff have some kind of turnaround, right, meaning some exemption on, for example, major smartphone brands, whether there's a chance for you to revise your full year revenue guidance? Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So, Charlie's second question is on the revenue outlook. His first part is on the second quarter. He notes second quarter '13 percent at the midpoint in U. S.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Dollar terms Q on Q is very strong. So he wonders, is this are we seeing already some tariff pulling impact or this part of that guidance? I'll stop here first.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes, Charlie. We have as we said in the prepared remarks, we haven't seen any changes in customers' behavior so far. Our second quarter growth is driven mainly by strong demand for the three nanometer and five nanometer technologies underpinned by the growth in our HPC platform. As I said, we haven't seen any observe any changes in customer behavior in terms of pooling or due to tariffs. It probably better to ask them directly.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

And the second part then Charlie is asking about what the second quarter guidance implies us limited half on half growth. So is that also because we are assuming something from a tariff impact to consumer demand or why is that?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Charlie, as we also said in the prepared remarks, there are uncertainties and potential risks from tariffs exist. So far, that's what we are able to share with you is we stick to the mid-twenty percent or close to mid-twenty percent year over year growth, no different from the previous quarter.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

I see. So, so I think that's really what I want, but I think your answer to focus the previous question on long term margin dilution was a little bit unclear because we thought that 2% to 3% margin dilution from overseas sales should remain to be the case, but it seems like these are widening. So I'm not sure if it is because you are further accelerating your U. S. Fab expansion or some cost item or pricing item are not in your stations versus maybe one or two months ago.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. I think so Charlie is asking basically how come the dilution in the latter period widens to 3% to 4%. What are the drivers or reasons behind it?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes. Charlie, the widening of dilution on the gross margin in the later part of the five year period is mainly from inflation in cost and also potential tariff related cost increases. Those are the reasons.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay.

Charlie Chen
Charlie Chen
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

I see. Okay. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Thank you, Charlie. Okay. Operator, let's move on to the next participant, please.

Operator

Next one, Charles Chi from Needham. Go ahead please.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe I'll ask a relatively higher level question. It's a two part question. Both are regarding your expansion plan in The United States. I think management, you know, another occasion that what TSMC wants the most is the fairness.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

Nothing monetary, nothing about tariffs, but fairness. Can management kind of elaborate a little bit what fairness means? Give us a little bit more specifics. But the other part of the question regarding The U. S.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

Expansion is about the R and D team center you announced. So we understand, yes, the TSMC's R and D in The U. S. Does need to start from somewhere, right? You said it's more about the production improvements related R and D on derivative notes.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

But since this seems to be something U. S. Really cares about that the R and D capability on The U. S. Soil on leading edge, is there any longer term plan to have The U.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

S. R And D Center to be involved, let's say, the primary R and D, let's say, brand new processes, the major nodes development? That's my two part question. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Thank you, Charles. So again, to summarize, both questions are related to the expansion in The U. S. So first part of the question is we, C.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

C. Has mentioned all we want is fair treatment. So what do we mean by fair or fairness?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Well, let me answer this question. What we mean the fair treatment? It's very simple. If anybody get the subsidy or get incentive, it should be everybody should get the same. Either we got all or we got zero, all right?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

So that's what we call it fair. So again, I would like to assure you that we are what be very competitive in either conditions.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. And then the second part of the question is regarding the R and D. Charles is saying, he understands the R and D needs to start from somewhere, but with our major R and D center in Arizona, what will be the purpose or the focus? And will it be involved at some point in ramping new technologies?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

As I said before, TSMC's fab never be stay stagnant. We always continue to improve it. And we need to establish a major R and D center in Arizona with about 1,000 engineer. That's a big amount. But the focus will be support our manufacturing cluster, improve its technology and allow it to operate independently.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Did I answer the question?

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

Maybe let me just really follow-up because there has been good amount of chatters about the U. S. R and D center more supporting manufacturing rather than doing major R and D on the brand new nodes. But looks like that's not the plan. Over the longer term, is there any thoughts of our management maybe they will get involved in branding those development one way or the other.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

I think that's a question people have been discussed about over the last quarter.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

So Charles is asking, will the R and D center over the mid to long term, can it also focus on things like new node development or pathfinding opportunities, long term research, these type of things?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Actually, the first purpose is to let Arizona's five can operate independently. But of course, we have done and we are doing it right now to some kind of pest funding, exploratory work and cooperate with university, blah, blah, blah. It actually a lot of activities. 1,000 engineer is not a small amount.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Of course, it's not comparable to TSMC's right now is 10,000 R and D people, but it's a beginning, okay? So we do a lot more.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Charles, do you have a second question? Yes.

Charles Shi
Managing Director - Senior Analyst at Needham & Company

No, I don't. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, great. Thank you. Operator, the next participant, please.

Operator

Next one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. So my first question is to follow-up on the Arizona expansions. So first part is on the timeline or the pace of your expansions. Now given the stronger demand for your U.

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

S. Capacities, to what extent could you pull in the rep of the original second and third phase? And for your fourth phase, you earlier mentioned that you will be constructing the facial data lacer. So will that really be possible that you start to wrap the fourth phase at the same time at the third phase?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Sunny's first question is regarding our Gigafab cluster in Arizona. She wants to understand the timeline of expansion, particularly given the strong AI related demand. Can we pull in the timing for both the second fab and the third fab? And also, can we at the same time start the production of the third and fourth fab simultaneously?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Well, Sunny, we are working very hard to speed it up of our production in the second fab and construction on the third fab. All I can say now is customers' demand is shrunk. We have to really to speed it up. And the following all the fab definitely will depend on our customers' demand, of course.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Sunny?

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

Well, so sorry, just to clarify. So the second phase originally is planning for production in 2028. So now should we assume it to be from maybe mid-twenty twenty seven or even first half of twenty twenty seven? And for the third phase, since you are building the effect show this year, so will the production start maybe one year ahead versus the original timeline of 02/1930?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Sunny specifically, so the second one we said we're speeding up, can we give some context of a timeframe? And then for the third fab, will we also speed it up? Could that also be moved forward?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Yes, we are speeding it up. How fast? The second fab, as you said, it should be pulling. And this one, we are working hard to pulling at least a couple of quarters.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

That's at least. On the third wave, actually, I did not speak the whole thing, is also being constrained by the labor shortage of Arizona and we need to get all the permits, everything, etcetera. So I cannot give you a very definite date yet, but we are going to update you probably in the next quarter or one quarter after that.

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

Got it. No problem. My second question is on the pricing and margin of the overseas expansions. And so now with the especially stronger demand for The U. S.

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

Capacities, would you be able to sell more value given the stronger onshoring requirements? And then for margin, earlier you mentioned the 2% to three percent margin dilution for the coming two, three years and then expanding to 3% to 4% maybe into 2029 to 02/1930. I just wonder what's the underlying weather price assumption for that gross margin dilution estimate. If you are able to raise the AZ pricing a bit, will the gross margin dilution could be less?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Sunny's question is on the overseas expansion in both pricing and margin. Given the strong demand in terms of pricing, can we reflect even greater value to our customers? And therefore and also her question is given that the dilution from overseas will widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages of the five year period. She wants to know what is our underlying wafer price assumption behind this?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Sunny, let me answer that. These two things are actually go together. As we said, reflecting our value is a continuous and ongoing process. And we because of our business nature, we need very high gross margin to earn a sustainable healthy return. Now, geographic manufacturing flexibility is an important part of our value proposition to the customers.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Therefore, we are already discussing this with our major customers and the progress is so far so good. Now, at the same time, the margin dilution from the overseas fabs, the additional dilutions come from the cost inflation as well as potential cost increases from the tariff policies. Of course, with that, we also want to reflect the value and therefore the discussion with the customers are in continuous.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Sunny?

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

Got it.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All

Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin
Analyst at UBS Group

All right. Very clear. Thank you very much.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thank you. Operator, can we move on to the next participant please?

Operator

Next one to ask questions Brett Simpson, Arete.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Yes, thanks very much. I have a two part question on this year's guidance for CC. First, CC, you mentioned that AI is still expected to double this year despite The U. S. Ban on AI GPUs into China.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

And I guess China was a meaningful portion of accelerated shipments well over 10% of volumes. So factoring this in, it would imply your AI outlook this year still doubling would mean that the AI orders have improved meaningfully outside of China in the last sort of three months. Is that how we should interpret your comment about you still expect the business to double? And then second, we're in a June where tariffs have been paused for ninety days. So to what extent does your above seasonal June guidance reflect customer pull ins ahead of potential tariffs being applied in the September?

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Brett, this question is on again the one part is on the AI demand that although there is a ban in China on certain AI chips or products that we reiterated our AI accelerated growth will double this year. So his assumption is that implies a strong non China AI related demand and wondering what is the mechanics or can we comment beyond that behind that?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Brett,

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

three months ago now I can tell you that three months ago, we are barely we just cannot supply enough wafer to our customer. And now it's a little bit balanced, but still the demand is very strong. And you are right, other than China, the demand is still very strong, especially in U. S. And so we are confident that we are going to double our AI's revenue this year.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes. And then very quickly, he was asking about the second quarter revenue guidance and do we see any tariff related pull in. I think Wendell answered this earlier.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes. I think we have as C. C. Said in his prepared remarks, we haven't seen any changes in customer behavior. The growth in second quarter was primarily due to the demand from our three nanometer and five nanometer technologies underpinned by the demand from the HPC platform.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Do you have a second question, Brad? Sorry.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Yes.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Thanks, Jeff. My second question was for Wendell and thanks for clarifying that Wendell. Follow-up is on shareholder returns. TSMC traditionally has always favored growing the dividends as the main policy, but many shareholders would argue that the dividend payouts are not having that much of an impact on the discounted multiple that TSMC trades at versus some of your U. S.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Big tech peers. So my question is why does TSMC management not adopt buyback framework, particularly with the strength of the cash position on balance sheet at the moment? Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Thank you, Brett. So Brett's second question is circulated on shareholder return. He notes TSMC's policy has always been a stable and steadily increasing cash dividend and focus on cash dividend payout. His question is why do we would we consider, why do we not consider adopting more of a buyback policy, share buyback policy?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Brett. We've done studies long time ago and we continue to revisit that. We also talked to investors. Our conclusion stays the same. The sustainable steadily increasing dividends is a better way of returning cash to the shareholders.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

So we're maintaining the policy.

Brett Simpson
Senior Analyst at Arete research

Okay. Thank you.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Operator, in the interest of time, can we take the questions from the last two participants please?

Operator

Yes. Now the line is open to Laura Chen, Citi.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Hello. Hi. Thank you very much for taking my question. Can you hear me clearly?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Yes. Thank you. My question is also about the AI and also The U. S. Expansion.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Siti, you just mentioned that the COVID supplydemand will be more balanced into 2026. Do you see any structural change in the future AI chip design when moving to N3 such as like a chip like that kind of a design? And also in that kind of new trend, what TSMC's view on the new technologies such as CPO or TLP panel base? Will that still start from Taiwan First? Or you would also consider to further invest the new like a back end technology in Arizona since Sisi you just mentioned that you would also start to build up the fab in advanced packaging in Arizona?

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

My first Thank first

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

question is a very broad question. But basically if I just try to distill, she wants to know do we see any changes in the chip design particularly moving to chiplets with N3? Do we see this more and more? What about the role of things like co package optics and panel level packaging? And I think the essence of a question, will we continue to use our leading sorry, advanced packaging technologies like COWAS or SOIC in Taiwan First?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Or is this also part of the plan for the expansion in Arizona?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

That's a long question. But Laura, yes. Our customers, they continue to using that TSMC's leading edge technology. And they also adopt the advanced packaging technologies more and more and also more advanced, right? This year is probably most of Cohuasi S and then next year Cohuasi Europe and etcetera.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

And we can see that customers start to picking up the SOIC and the more advanced packaging technologies. As for the what we call is panel levels packaging, we are aggressively developing it. And today, still is a feasibility study stage. Too early to say, it will be in Taiwan or in U. S, but most likely it will be in Taiwan First.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

We ramp it up and then bring it to U. S.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Okay. That's very clear. And also my second question is also about the capacity allocation between Taiwan and also Arizona. Siti, you just shared with us that for about like 30% of N2 capacity will be in Arizona. We know it will be starting from when or what kind of timeframe you are looking for.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Can we also assume that the same scale like 30% of your Arizona fab for the advanced node in the longer term?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So Laura's second question is about the capacity allocation between how do we allocate between Taiwan and The U. S. Maybe is it duplicative or extra capacity. And then very specific, Cece had mentioned that N2 and more advanced capacity 30%, around 30% will be in Arizona once we scale up to the cluster.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Will that be kind of the percentage for the leading node in the future?

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Well, we have right now we plan a six fab in Arizona. And in that six fab, the two nanometer will be a major node. And that's what I say 30% will be there. As time goes by, after the two nanometer will be 1.41 that has not been discussed yet.

Laura Chen
Research Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. That's very clear.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

All right. Thanks, Laura. Operator, can we take the last questions from the last participant, please?

Operator

The last one to ask question, Chris Asankar, Cowen. Go ahead, please.

Krish Sankar
Managing Director at Cowen and Company

Hi, thanks for taking my question. My first one is very impressive given uncertainty, you're still maintaining full year revenue guidance and also your N2 capacity plan for this year and next year. Kind of curious, what is your visibility on second half revenues and also N2 demand for wafers into next year? And then I have a follow-up.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. So, Krish's first question is sort of in the near term, what is our visibility into the second half business outlook? And then also how do we see the demand for N2 progressing this year and also next year?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Let me talk about the first one. We're only at second quarter. So, think it's too early to talk about the second half. We did mention that the uncertainties and risks from tariffs exist and we might get a better picture in the next few months.

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

So we can probably update you in the next earnings call.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

And then the second part of it is on the demand visibility of our two nanometer.

C.C. Wei
C.C. Wei
CEO at Taiwan Semiconductor

So far, actually, so far is very strong, as we said. All the new tape out customer is the number of the tape outs is exceeding that what we expected. And as we said, the number of the new tape outs is much higher than the three nanometer and five nanometer in the same period of time.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. And did you have a second question, Krish?

Krish Sankar
Managing Director at Cowen and Company

Got it. Very helpful. Yes. Jeff. Just one quick follow-up.

Krish Sankar
Managing Director at Cowen and Company

You spoke about the Japan fab. I'm curious what is the capacity installed in Japan today? And how to think about the revenue contribution this year from Japan?

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay. Krish's second question is related to our first specialty technology fab in Japan. He wants to know what is the capacity installment for this specialty technology fab and also the revenue contribution from JASM?

Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
CFO at Taiwan Semiconductor

Yes. The capacity for the fab will be 40,000 when it's ramp up. The revenue for this year compared to the whole company is really not significant at this moment.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Okay, Krish?

Krish Sankar
Managing Director at Cowen and Company

Got it. Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, Jeff.

Krish Sankar
Managing Director at Cowen and Company

Thank you very No

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

problem. Okay. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our question and answer session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will be accessible within thirty minutes from now.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

The transcript will become available twenty four hours from now and both will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. So thank you again for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well and hope to join you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye and have a good day. Take care.

Jeff Su
Jeff Su
Director, IR at Taiwan Semiconductor

Thank you.

Analysts

Key Takeaways

  • In Q1 2025, revenue fell 3.4% sequentially in NT$, or 5.1% in US$, to land slightly above guidance midpoint, while gross margin dipped to 58.8% due to earthquake recovery and start-up dilution from overseas fabs.
  • Q2 2025 guidance calls for revenue of US$28.4–29.2 billion (up 13% Q/Q, 38% Y/Y), gross margin of 57–59% and operating margin of 47–49%, with a tax rate temporarily around 20%.
  • Advanced technologies (7 nm & below) drove 73% of wafer sales in Q1 (3 nm: 22%, 5 nm: 36%), with HPC at 59% of revenue vs. smartphones at 28%; AI accelerator revenue is expected to double in 2025 alongside a plan to double capacity.
  • An additional US$100 billion investment in Arizona—bringing total U.S. investment to US$165 billion—will add three leading-edge wafer fabs, two advanced packaging sites and a 1,000-engineer R&D center, targeting ~30% of 2 nm+ capacity in the U.S.
  • TSMC’s 2025 CapEx is set at US$38–42 billion (≈70% for advanced processes), and management sees 2–3% gross-margin dilution early in the five-year overseas ramp (widening to 3–4% later) but believes a long-term gross margin above 53% remains achievable.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q1 2025
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