Enterprise Products Partners Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners LP's First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press 11 again.

Operator

I would now like to hand the call over to Libby Strait, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Libby Strait
Libby Strait
VP - IR at Enterprise Products Partners

Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss first quarter twenty twenty five earnings. Our speakers today will be Co Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today. During this call, we will make forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct.

Libby Strait
Libby Strait
VP - IR at Enterprise Products Partners

Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements made during this call. And with that, I will turn it over to Jim.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Thank you, Libby. We got a special guest with us today. Sam Holly, our Vice President of Wholesale Propane is with us. And we wanted to publicly acknowledge his contributions to the company. Sam has been in the industry over thirty years with Enterprise over twenty years and I can say I've never known anyone with more passion for our company, for his business and for his people.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

You will be missed my friend. With that, I want to cover a few highlights in the first quarter and summarize the things we look forward to. We had adjusted EBITDA of $2,400,000,000 DCF, 1.7 times coverage, $842,000,000 of retained DCF, two financial records and five operational records. In total, we moved 13,200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day and 2,000,000 barrels a day of liquid hydrocarbon exports. Relative to our PDH facilities, our PDH one facility was down for sixty three days during the first quarter of twenty twenty five for unplanned maintenance.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

As of last week, both our PDH plants are online and no debt major downtime is planned at either plant for the remainder of the year. If both PDH plants had been up and running during the first quarter, we would have easily exceeded $2,500,000,000 We continue to benefit from growing production in the Permian and consistent domestic and international energy demand pull across our systems. For the remainder of 2025, we look forward to bringing on two gas processing plants in the third quarter in the Permian, 1 each in the Delaware and Midland Basin, the Bahia NGL pipeline in the fourth quarter, Frac '14 at our Mont Belvieu Complex in the third quarter, the first phase of NGL exports on the Neches River in the fourth quarter and enhancements of our ethane and ethylene terminal at Morgans Point also in the fourth quarter. I'm sure Tony or Natalie would discuss our Permian outlook in more detail during Q and A, but there is a large backlog of wells expected to be connected to our gathering and processing systems between now and the end of the year that will feed our downstream NGL value chain. On the other side of the equation exports, I've never seen U.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

S. Hydrocarbons get this much attention worldwide. For now it appears China is going to exclude ethane and ethylene from their tariffs to protect their petrochemical business. Currently LPG has not been excluded from the Chinese tariffs, but admittedly the situation is fluid. Regardless, the market has already gone to work rerouting barrels between the world's biggest LPG suppliers, The US and The Middle East, and the biggest importing countries being China and India.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

It's important to note that even before the tariff pause, nominations at our docks from May indicated that our customers' behavior was virtually unchanged from prior months. The bottom line is the world needs U. S. Oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids to provide for their people and to grow their economies. Relative to all the chaos, the beauty of free markets is price always works.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Price creates supply, price creates demand in the right places and for the most part in a timely manner. I can't help myself but to end today with comments on Washington. Stating the obvious, a lot is going on that is causing nothing short of chaos around the world. Energy is not excluded. No one can tell how all the pieces land so I think we must fall back on what we think we know.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

President Trump was extremely pro oil and gas in his first term and ran and won his second term on a pro oil and gas platform stressing that we must unleash and expand our domestic energy production and exports. There is also no doubt that the Trump administration understands the importance of US hydrocarbons to our economy, global markets, and our balance of trade. Amid all this uncertainty, have the core belief when the dust settles, the end game of this administration's policies, laws and regulations is intended to promote US energy and not just for the next four years but for decades. Enterprise is one of the largest exporter of hydrocarbons and is significantly increasing our capacity to gather, process, transport, upgrade, distribute and export hydrocarbons. We feel great about our assets and the investments we're making and what they mean to our future.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

With that, I'll turn it to Randy. Okay.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Thank you, Jim, and good morning to everyone. I'll start off with the income statement. Net income attributable to common unitholders for the first quarter of twenty twenty five was 1,400,000,000 or $0.64 per common unit on a fully diluted basis, which compares to $0.66 per common unit for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital, was $2,100,000,000 for both the first quarters of twenty twenty five and 2024. We declared a distribution of $0.05 $35 per common unit for the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

This is a 3.9% increase over the distribution declared for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. This distribution will be paid May 14 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on April 30. In the first quarter, the Partnership purchased approximately 1,800,000 common units off the open market for $60,000,000 Total repurchases for the twelve months ending 03/31/2025 were $239,000,000 or approximately 8,000,000 EPD common units bringing total purchases under our buyback program to approximately 1,200,000,000.0 In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 6,000,000 common units on the open market for $181,000,000 during the last twelve months. This includes 1,100,000 common units on the open market for $35,000,000 during the first quarter of twenty twenty five. For the twelve months ending 03/31/2025, Enterprise paid out approximately $4,600,000,000 in distributions to our limited partners.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Combined with $239,000,000 of common unit repurchases over that same period, Enterprise's total capital return was $4,900,000,000 resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56%. Since our IPO in 1998, we have returned $58,000,000,000 to unitholders in the form of distributions and buybacks. Total capital investments in the first quarter of twenty twenty five were $1,100,000,000 which included $964,000,000 of growth capital cost for growth capital projects and $102,000,000 of sustaining capital expenditures. Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged. For 2025, this is 4,000,000,000 to $4,500,000,000 And for 2026, it's $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 We continue to expect 2025 sustaining capital expenditures to be approximately $525,000,000 which includes a planned turnaround at our Octane enhancement plant later this year.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $31,900,000,000 as of 03/31/2025. Assuming the final maturity date of our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio was approximately eighteen years. Our weighted average cost of debt was 4.7% and approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate. Our consolidated liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $3,600,000,000 including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. Our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $2,400,000,000 and for the last twelve months was $9,900,000,000 As of 03/31/2025, our consolidated leverage ratio was 3.1 times on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the Partnership's unrestricted cash on hand.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Our leverage target remains 3.0x plus or minus 0.25x. With that, Libby, we can open it up for questions.

Libby Strait
Libby Strait
VP - IR at Enterprise Products Partners

Thank you, Randy. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press 11 again. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up or two questions to allow everyone the opportunity to participate. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury of Bank of America.

Operator

Please go ahead, Jean Ann.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Hi. Good morning. You're a major Can you tell us you touched on this in your comments, but can you tell us what you're seeing real time today? Is all U.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

S. LPG currently being rerouted away from China? And as my follow-up, more broadly, can you talk about how you see the competitive landscape for LPG exports here in light of the tariffs and significant capacity being built by you and others? Thank you.

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Hi, Jean Ann, this is Tug. So on the first part of your question, we are currently seeing the trade flows work the balance. We have not seen a disruption on any of our exports on ethane or LPG. We have limited direct exposure on LPG and ethane to China. We don't have a single contract with a Chinese entity.

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Our counterparties are typically international companies who know how to navigate international volatility. Now what our customers export to China is approximately 32% on LPG and 40% to 50% on ethane. On the second prong of your question about the competitive landscape, the capital for our brownfield expansion of the Houston Ship Channel is around $400,000,000 and we get 300,000 barrels a day of capacity for that investment. So compared to the other announced projects and their respective capital, our expansion is the most capital efficient on a per unit basis of export capacity. We expect this significant capital advantage to translate into the most competitive terminal fees in the market for our customers.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Great. That's helpful. I will leave it there.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis of Citi. Please go ahead, Spiro.

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. Jim, wanted to go back to some of the projects you had sort of listed off coming online later this year. I think in total, something like $6,000,000,000 of projects starting up in 2025, which at a sort of basic midstream multiple gets you about $800,000,000 of incremental EBITDA. So curious, how much of that would you say is sort of hardwired?

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

It doesn't really rely on a lot of incremental growth here. And how should we think about that EBITDA ramp and cadence? It sounds like more of a '26 item, but curious how to think about that.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

I'm having a hard time understanding you.

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

So you get $6,000,000,000 of projects, and that's about $800,000,000 of EBITDA if you put a pretty standard multiple on it. I guess I'm just curious how you're thinking about the ramp up and the cadence of that $800,000,000 of EBITDA coming online. Is that all a 26 item? Is that gonna take years to kinda come to fruition?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

What's the ramp on your ground processing plants, Natalie?

Natalie Gayden
Natalie Gayden
Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets at Enterprise Products Partners

Our processing plant on when they come online here in the next couple of months will be close to full, in Midland and let's call it 60%, seventy five % full in the Delaware. So pretty fast for us.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Okay. Zach, where will you be on your five fourteen?

Zach Strait
Zach Strait
Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGLs at Enterprise Products Partners

I don't think we've ever shown that we haven't brought up a frack not full.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Doug or Justin exports.

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, I

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

mean, the exports were 85% to 90% contracted on LPG. I think I mentioned that last earnings call and we're now towards the upper band of that. So as those projects come online, they're contracted.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

We have, I think it's Spiro 12 projects that we list. Eight of those projects are supply projects and the remainder are market projects. And we're pretty confident that they're going to be fairly full when they come up.

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

Great. Good to hear, Jim. Thanks for that. Second question, maybe over to you, Tony. Obviously, you put out your fundamental update a little less than a month ago.

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

Obviously, a lot has happened since then and in around that time. So just curious maybe how you're thinking about some of the assumptions that went into that initial forecast, if anything sort of changed in the last month or so? I realize that it's still, to some degree, early days here. And to the extent you're seeing any sort of producer reaction based on some of this OPEC supply returning to the market?

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

Yes, Spiro. Let's first talk about what we show what our numbers show happened in 2024. I think that's a good place to start. For the Permian Basin, I'll focus on the Permian Basin. We show that black oil production grew about 325,000 barrels in 2024.

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

Rich gas about 2.5 Bs and NGLs about 300,000 barrels. We run our base case that we recently published on 65 WTI and $3.5 natural gas at Henry today that oil prices we go forward over the next three to five years sits closer to 60 than it does 65. In general, we and others believe that 55 to 60 puts the Permian more or less in a maintenance mode and closer to $50 takes the Permian probably below maintenance. It's likely the largest and soonest impact will be on smaller players. Those running less than three rigs out of 300 rigs running in the Permian about 75 of those are operated by small operators that have three or less rigs running.

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

So that's probably the most immediate impact you'll see. You are hearing some of the producers at this point and Natalie, I guess I'll speak to it here in a second, about dropping some, I'm gonna call onesies and twosies, but no big step function in what they're planning to do. I think the most important point to make and we've been trying to make it for at least the last three years because crude declines are steeper than natural gas. We've run a theoretical flat case for Permian now and for Permian black oil between now and 2027 and to stay right where it is. In that case, a rich natural gas grow between one point three and one point five BCF a day between 09/27 call that a couple hundred thousand barrels a day of natural gas liquids.

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

That's what the fundamental show. Natalie, tell us what your producers are telling you.

Natalie Gayden
Natalie Gayden
Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, I'll just add as it relates to enterprise and on the gathering and processing business by design, our producers are some of the largest and most sophisticated and best position players in the basin. And then a large percentage of our biggest producers ex integrated majors are either entirely or primarily focused on the Permian. Just to put that into perspective, we connected over a thousand wells in '24 and we're expecting a similar number of well connects from line of sight that we have in 2025, but it's very second half oriented.

Spiro Dounis
Spiro Dounis
Director at Citigroup

Got it. That's great color. I'll leave it there. Thank you, team.

Operator

Thank you, Spiro. Our next question comes from the line of Teresa Chen of Barclays. Your line is open, Teresa.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
MD - Equity Research at Barclays

Thank you. I wanted to touch on the petchem and refined product segment. With the return to utilization or full utilization for PDH, what is your outlook for the segment for the remainder of the year? And then maybe if you could touch on some of the smaller components as well, including the conversion of your the 20% of your propylene production to fee based. How much volumetric exposure do you have there as well as the octane spread for NTPE to U.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
MD - Equity Research at Barclays

S. Gulf Coast gasoline? What is your outlook on there as well, please?

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

Theresa, this is Chris Dann. That was a lot. I'll try to hit all of it. On PDHs, both of them today are running very well. Even PDH2, although it's not meeting the full expectations, we are meeting our contractual obligations on that.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

So that's a big step from where we were even the last call. And our expectation is that we continue to run those plants at the same rates we're running today. PDH1 is running above nameplate by the way. It did have very rough first quarter as you saw in the release. But the issues that we had were mechanical, not anything else and we think that we've resolved those.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

Then on the RGP PGP, that's been something that we've been working on for a little bit. Most of our refiners suppliers wanted less exposure to RGP and more on the PGP side. So we felt it was a win win. We got what we thought was a very fair fixed fee going forward. So that's gonna reduce our volatility on the splitter margins.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

And then let's see, make

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

sure I've covered all your questions.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

I think the last one was around Hocktane spreads.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
MD - Equity Research at Barclays

Yes.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

And we've talked about in the past how we hedge the normal to our Bob spreads. We've done that this year. We have about 75% of our spread hedged.

F. Christopher D'Anna
F. Christopher D'Anna
SVP - Petrochemicals at Enterprise Products Partners

And then the overall MTBE has been a little bit weaker so far this year. And typically we see in the last half of the year, of in the summer fall timeframe as gas is driving season picks up, see that widen a bit. So that's kind of what our expectation is looking forward. Of course, there's no forward curve to look at for that product.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
MD - Equity Research at Barclays

Thank you, Chris. I'll leave it there.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Your line is open, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Hi, good morning.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Good morning, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Hi. I just wanted to touch on the topic of buybacks, if I could, and how recent market price volatility might have impacted your view on the near term there and thoughts, I guess, moving forward in 'twenty six as CapEx tapers off a bit there, if there might be room for CapEx to step up a little bit next year?

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, Jeremy. Appreciate the question. Yeah, I think, you know, we covered it

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

on the fourth quarter call.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

And really, we're in the same place today that if come in and look over the last twelve months, our excess distributable cash flow is about $3,300,000,000 And the way I think about excess distributable cash flow, so you've already taken care of the distribution, And then the next is to go ahead and cover growth CapEx. And then after that, you have what you have left is available for buybacks and for debt pay down. And what we what we had highlighted on the last call, if you come in and you look at mid single digits growth in cash flow per unit, you know, once you get out to 2026, it's probably putting you somewhere around, you know, $3,600,000,000 area for excess DCF. And with growth CapEx in the range of 2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 that leaves you maybe $1,000,000,000 to $1.5 available for debt pay down and buybacks. So again, 2026 should be a big change in excess distributable cash flow.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Got it. Thank you for that. And if I could, maybe just as it relates to the management team, it's seen departure recently. And so when might we hear more, I guess, on the COO role or any other changes to management?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

This is Jim. I love what Randall says. He said we think in terms of decades, not quarters. We got a bench that is unbelievable. We've got young to middle aged talent, and I'm not worried at all about what our succession plans are.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

And that's about all we're gonna share.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Got it. Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, John.

John Mackay
John Mackay
VP - Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Hey, good morning. Thank you for the time. I want to go back to the NGL exports and some of the kind of global dynamics, understand the comments on tariffs ultimately, maybe at least for right now, not being a major issue. Just curious, are you seeing any sort of slowdown though in terms of a broader macro impact, meaning we could see kind of lower demand in Asia for some of these products and therefore see some knock on effects? Or is everything going pretty well there so far?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

I'm going to hand it off to Tug. This is Jim, and I'll start. We've recently signed contracts with Southeast Asian companies and they're not small. And I've not seen any change in behavior at our docks. You want to pick it up?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Doug, are you sold out on your ethane export?

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, we're fully contracting our ethane exports.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

What about LPG?

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

And like I mentioned earlier, 85% to 90% on our LPG. But if you look at it, it doesn't change the fundamental fact that there is a demand slowdown internationally. All that means is that propane has to continue to price lower to compete with NAFTA because ultimately the barrel has to clear. We can store a lot of propane as a country in The US, but we cannot do it indefinitely. Price will solve that.

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

We'll displace naphtha or other products.

John Mackay
John Mackay
VP - Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

That's clear. Thank you. And maybe just picking up on a couple of threads from earlier. Tony, your market forecast kind of reflective of the some of the changes you made last couple of years, higher GORs, stronger NGL outlook even if oil is a little flatter. Is this changing your view at all on how you're thinking about the 26,000,000 CapEx budget?

John Mackay
John Mackay
VP - Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

With that in the context of maybe a macro slowdown a little bit, is there a risk to the upside or downside to that 2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 of CapEx you're framing up for next year?

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Yes. John, I may jump in here. Because really, when we look at 2026 and look at 2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 of growth CapEx, the bulk of that CapEx is related to this $7,600,000,000 worth of assets under construction. So if I come in and if you say, know, so our range expectation is two to 2.5, and let's just say 2.5, that's probably $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 worth of unidentified growth projects that still may be in development, but nothing has been FID ed. So if you even take that away, that comes in and tells you we probably have 1,800,000,000.0 1 point 9 billion dollars in

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

growth

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

CapEx next year just to come in and finish construction of the projects that have already FID ed. Does that help?

John Mackay
John Mackay
VP - Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Yeah, that's clear. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Michael.

Michael Blum
Michael Blum
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I want to sort of follow-up on that, the CapEx question in a little maybe a little more detailed. If tariff policy does slow global demand on a more consistent basis and this isn't a temporary situation, would you consider slowing some of your NGL expansion projects? Or are those just kind of fully contracted committed customers so they're gonna move forward regardless of what happens on tariffs?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

You're talking about what we have under construction now?

Michael Blum
Michael Blum
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Under construction and plans.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah. I think we're pretty well contracted. I can't see a slowing down on what we've got under construction.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah. And Michael, I think one of the ways we think about it, Tony put out, commented earlier that even if you saw crude production go flat, you still have, call it, 1.5 BCF a day of natural gas production growth out of the Permian, which represents maybe 200,000 barrels a day of NGL growth coming out of the Permian. So again, the projects that we have under construction, I mean, the bulk of them will be finished by the end of the year with carryover on Port Neches. But a lot of them will be finished by the end of the year. So it's hard to see any slowdown from that standpoint.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

And I think one of the things to also keep in mind is, and I think Tony's had it in past Investor Day presentations, that when you come in and you look at crude oil demand growth and ethylene and propylene demand growth, they're either about I think crude maybe 0.9 times GDP growth. Ethylene growth is like 1.2, propylene maybe 1.3 GDP growth. And the economists that I've seen as far as them trying to come in and forecast the impact of tariffs on global GDP growth, the estimates I've seen is anywhere from 05% to 8%, but you still have growth. So it's hard to see where we're not going to see demand growth for the product in '25 and '26. Does that help?

Michael Blum
Michael Blum
Analyst at Wells Fargo

It does. Thank you. It does. I appreciate that. All right.

Michael Blum
Michael Blum
Analyst at Wells Fargo

That's all I had today. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank. Please go ahead, Brandon.

Brandon Bingham
Associate Director - Equity Research at Scotiabank

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question here. Would just like to maybe talk about the inorganic side of CapEx and just in light of kind of where everything's trading now public and private, if you see maybe an a growing opportunity to to capitalize on some of these depressed prices or if maybe there's kind of just a standoff between bid ask spread situation where sellers are more unwilling to transact at this level? Just any high level thoughts you have around how that might factor into the strategy moving forward?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Brandon, this is Jim. My high level thought is if it doesn't fit what we have, then we're probably not gonna be interested. If you look at our system, everything we've acquired are built. It's what we already have. Plus, always says price matters.

Brandon Bingham
Associate Director - Equity Research at Scotiabank

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe just a quick one. Looking at the slides, it looked like some of the movements on a quarter over quarter basis in segment margin were related to marketing. If you could just maybe provide some incremental detail around the moving pieces there.

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, on NGL marketing, specifically in the first quarter, had additional LPG contracts step up at lower rates than the spot rates we achieved last year. So we had two to three cargoes a month we were selling, for example, in the fourth quarter around zero two zero dollars a gallon and that spot margin has compressed in addition to additional term contracts stepping up.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Now on the flip side of that, we had a pretty good quarter in natural gas marketing, didn't we, Doug?

Tug Hanley
Tug Hanley
Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

We did on our natural gas marketing segment. We had two really two bites of apple at winter volatility in January and February, which helped us out. And we're also seeing higher West to East spreads Waha. So that was beneficial.

Brandon Bingham
Associate Director - Equity Research at Scotiabank

Awesome. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS. Please go ahead,

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

Good morning. I wanted to ask you, can you get an update on the progress you are making at Menton West and Menton West to to get those projects online?

Graham Bacon
Graham Bacon
EVP and COO at Enterprise Products Partners

Yes. This is Graham. Both of those projects are are coming online. Construction is going very well. We're in early commissioning on the first Mentone West project and looking at those projects probably coming in a little bit ahead of schedule.

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

Perfect. You do have 7,600,000,000.0 of major capital projects under construction. 6,000,000,000 are expected to come online in this year. So, help us understand how are the talks going to replenish the backlog. So, once these projects do come online, how can you grow the backlog from here?

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

What was the question?

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, that's where, you know, stepping out to 2026. That's when where our expectation is growth CapEx is $2.2500000.0 dollars And we've said that if you would unidentified wedge in that is only about $6 or $700,000,000 It's two plants. Yeah. So, yeah, as Jim Jim said, it's it's two natural gas processing plants. And and again, you know, some of this is gonna be dictated the need for the plants, obviously, is gonna be dictated by the pace of producers and producer activity.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

But just even, again, throwing out what Tony did earlier, with if crude were to stay flat, crude production out of the Permian were to stay flat for two years, you've got increase of 1.5 BCF a day of natural gas. That's five processing plants at 300,000,000 cubic feet of the row. So I think some of the pace of growth will be dictated by our producer customers here in the near term.

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead, Keith.

Keith Stanley
Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Hi, good morning. Wanted to ask the CapEx question from another angle, which is, are there any things on the drawing board that could potentially cause 2026 growth CapEx to be materially higher than 2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 or is that very unlikely at this point?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Andy, I'm going say it's very unlikely, yep.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Okay.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

And Keith, I could one other thing I would throw out there, and I think we're talking about level of CapEx relative to where CapEx has been in 2024 and 2025. And really, these are peak levels of growth CapEx for us. And really, you've got to go back to 2018 and 2019 when we were at that level of growth CapEx when we were bringing on new plants and really or not really new plants because those are more pipe size, but when we were building more crude oil pipelines, NGL pipelines from Permian to Houston, and that's to a degree what's happening here. Exactly. We've got two projects that I can think of that probably are almost 50% of that $7,600,000,000 under construction.

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

So again, we are at very elevated levels then. And then when

Anthony C. Chovanec
Anthony C. Chovanec
EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products Partners

I think about some of

Randall Fowler
Randall Fowler
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

those projects, the operational leverage that we have around that, that we add a lot of capacity for instance in Bahia, we can add a good bit of capacity for and call it 400,000 barrels a day of capacity for probably $300,000,000 So the operational leverage that we have on expansions as a result of what we spent over the last couple of years really comes in and makes our growth CapEx in 'twenty six and what we envision in '27 really to be able to come back down to a more normal run rate of two to 2.5.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

And how many Natalie, how many processing plants have we built in the Permian in the last three, four years?

Natalie Gayden
Natalie Gayden
Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets at Enterprise Products Partners

More than I can count.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

What do we got out there?

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

20 trains?

Natalie Gayden
Natalie Gayden
Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets at Enterprise Products Partners

Well, we're on number 11 in the Delaware and number eight in the event.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

So a lot of what we're doing is supply projects. And I think to Randy's point, look at what Tug said earlier, we're going get 300,000 barrels a day for $400,000,000 on our export facility. I think that's a classic example of what our future looks like with our asset base.

Keith Stanley
Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

That's very helpful color. I didn't realize the 400,000 a day on Bahia for 300,000,000 Second question, just one on the crude segment, Q1 was lower. You called out lower deficiency fees. What asset is that on? And is the Q1 results more reflective of a run rate from here or not?

James Bany
James Bany
Senior Vice President of Crude Oil Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, Keith, this is Jay. As we think about the Q results this quarter on crude, we had a couple impacts. One was on lower sales volumes and a piece of that is also on sales margins. So just concentrating on the volume component this quarter versus first quarter of last year. Keep in mind that we had volumes on our Midland to ECHO two pipeline that was still flowing into Midland before we turned it over to NGLs.

James Bany
James Bany
Senior Vice President of Crude Oil Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

And then a little bit on EFS. But to your question about how we think about that moving forward, we're already into April. We're seeing good results both on the volume and margin side. So I would my view here at least as April stands is we're pushing past that.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Are you pipe out of Midland full?

James Bany
James Bany
Senior Vice President of Crude Oil Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

Yeah, pipes out of Midland are full today and looking forward to getting Seminole back into crude service here later this year.

A. J. Teague
A. J. Teague
CO-CEO & Director at Enterprise Products Partners

Will it be full?

James Bany
James Bany
Senior Vice President of Crude Oil Pipelines & Terminals at Enterprise Products Partners

And it will be full.

Keith Stanley
Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Libby Strait for closing remarks. Madam?

Libby Strait
Libby Strait
VP - IR at Enterprise Products Partners

Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Libby Strait
      Libby Strait
      VP - IR
    • A. J. Teague
      A. J. Teague
      CO-CEO & Director
    • Randall Fowler
      Randall Fowler
      CO-CEO & Director
    • Tug Hanley
      Tug Hanley
      Senior Vice President of Pipelines & Terminals
    • Natalie Gayden
      Natalie Gayden
      Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets
    • Zach Strait
      Zach Strait
      Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGLs
    • Anthony C. Chovanec
      Anthony C. Chovanec
      EVP - Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal
    • F. Christopher D'Anna
      F. Christopher D'Anna
      SVP - Petrochemicals
    • Graham Bacon
      Graham Bacon
      EVP and COO
    • James Bany
      James Bany
      Senior Vice President of Crude Oil Pipelines & Terminals
Analysts
Earnings Conference Call
Enterprise Products Partners Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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