Paramount Group Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2025

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Paramount Group First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

Operator

Please note that this conference call is being recorded today, 05/01/2025. I will now turn the call over to Tom Hennessey, Vice President of Business Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to point everyone to our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings release and supplemental information, which were released yesterday. Both can be found under the heading Financial Results in the Investors section of the Paramount Group website at www.pgre.com. Some of our comments will be forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward looking statements, which are usually identified by the use of words such as will, expect, should or other similar phrases, are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect.

Speaker 1

Therefore, you should exercise caution in interpreting and relying on them. We refer you to our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition. During the call, we will discuss our non GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for our financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is available in our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings release and our supplemental information.

Speaker 1

Hosting the call today, we have Mr. Albert Baylor, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of the company Wilbur Paes, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer and Peter Brindley, Executive Vice President, Head of Real Estate. Management will provide some opening remarks and we will then open the call to questions. With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. Since we last spoke, we have experienced great momentum, and I'm excited to share our first quarter results. We are off to a strong start in 2025. Yesterday, we reported core FFO of $0.17 per share for the first quarter, exceeding consensus by $01 From an operational standpoint, we also had an outstanding quarter in leasing.

Speaker 2

We executed leases totaling approximately 284,000 square feet, marking our strongest first quarter of leasing since 2019. This momentum is a testament to the tremendous effort of our leasing team, the strength of the portfolio and the demand for high quality space in our submarkets. Our pipeline remains in excellent shape and we are well positioned to continue this positive trajectory throughout the year. It is important to recognize the recent shifts in the broader economic environment as we discuss our performance. Despite these shifts, we have not experienced any disruption to our leasing activity over the past month.

Speaker 2

The resilience of our portfolio and the strategic locations of our properties continue to attract strong interest from high quality tenants. In New York, the Manhattan office market showed significant improvement during the first quarter of twenty twenty five. As according to Cushman Wakefield, new leasing activity reached the highest quarterly total since fourth quarter twenty twenty one. This surge was driven by demand in Class A office space, which comprised approximately 82% of total activity. Within that citywide leasing, financial services tenants represented over half of new leases 10,000 square feet and greater.

Speaker 2

We at Paramount are also seeing strong interest from a wide variety of tenants, including the financial and legal sectors. This demand reaffirms our conviction in the long term appeal of our high quality strategically located space in New York's core submarkets. These market trends align well with our portfolio. We captured our fair share of leasing in New York where we leased approximately 278,000 square feet. Additionally, we have a very robust leasing pipeline remaining.

Speaker 2

Peter will cover this in more detail shortly. During the quarter, we signed a significant new lease and subsequent expansion with Kirkland and Ellis at 900 Third Avenue totaling 179,000 square feet, improving the leased occupancy of the building over 20 percentage points from 68.9% to 90.2%. This lease represents a major expansion of Kirkland and Ellis, the largest law firm in The United States by gross revenue and the new space will support their continued growth. This transaction also underscores the improved demand profile for high quality office space in Midtown East and highlights the strategic value of our properties. The lease strengthens our portfolio and demonstrates our ability to attract and retain top tier tenants in competitive markets.

Speaker 2

We are already off to a good start in the second quarter with additional leasing momentum. As announced, we recently signed a significant new 121,000 square foot lease with a law firm Banish at 1301 Sixth Avenue. This new lease located on high floors achieved strong rents and will bring 1301 Sixth Avenue to 90% leased. As we have emphasized in previous calls, the flight to quality remains a consistent theme in the market with tenants increasingly focused on premier buildings in Midtown. Our portfolio is benefiting from this trend bolstered by the Paramount Club, which continues to be a significant differentiator in the market.

Speaker 2

This amenity has proven transformative, not just in attracting new tenants, but in fostering a vibrant workplace community that enhances tenant satisfaction and retention. In San Francisco, while the market continues to trail New York, we remain optimistic about its recovery. The leasing activity in San Francisco already has started to show very positive momentum this quarter. The evolving political landscape in San Francisco is fostering a more favorable business environment, stimulating demand for office space. Our portfolio in San Francisco is well positioned to capitalize on the Citi's status as the hub for tech innovation and its leadership in AI focused venture capital funding, which underscores its potential for recovery.

Speaker 2

We anticipate that tenants will continue to prioritize high quality, well located office space further enhancing the appeal of our properties. Our focus remains on maintaining strong tenant relationships and securing renewals, ensuring that our portfolio is ready to meet the needs of existing and prospective tenants as demand increases. Turning to our capital allocation activities, we continue to substantiate via the private market the underlying values in our portfolio. During the quarter, we closed the sale of a 45% interest in 900 Third Avenue, raising approximately $95,000,000 in net proceeds. This transaction valued the property at $210,000,000 or $354 per square foot.

Speaker 2

We retained the remaining 55 percent interest and we will continue to lease and manage the property. With that, I will hand over to Peter.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Albert, and good morning. During the first quarter, we leased approximately 284,000 square feet, the majority of which occurred in New York. The weighted average term for leases signed during the first quarter was twelve point nine years. At quarter end, our same store portfolio wide leased occupancy rate at share was 86.2%, up 140 basis points from last quarter. In both New York and San Francisco, tenants continue to prioritize premier centrally located amenity rich buildings.

Speaker 3

We remain laser focused on further developing our tenant relationships, delivering market leading amenities and added conveniences to our tenants, securing renewals for upcoming lease expirations and filling our vacant spaces. During the first quarter, approximately 60% of our leasing activity occurred on vacant space, 24% on space scheduled to expire in 2025 and the balance served to derisk lease roll in 2026 and 2027. Our pipeline of prospective tenants continues to expand, especially in New York, where improving market dynamics in Midtown's core submarkets combined with our market leading amenity offering at the Paramount Club have helped generate significant momentum. Our pipeline in both New York and San Francisco currently contains more than 375,000 square feet of leases in negotiation, more than half of which are for vacant space and the balance for space scheduled to expire in 2025 and 2026. Additionally, we have advanced stage proposals being negotiated for more than 150,000 square feet.

Speaker 3

Beyond that, our pipeline continues to grow as evidenced by the increasing number of proposals we are exchanging. Turning to the New York market. Midtown remains the most active of Manhattan's Three major markets. Midtown's leasing activity during the first quarter reached more than 4,800,000 square feet exceeding the five year quarterly average for the sixth consecutive quarter. Increased demand coupled with planned conversions of select office buildings and little to no new development is leading to a scarcity of high quality availability in Midtown's premier buildings.

Speaker 3

We continue to gain momentum as evidenced by our pipeline and expect the ongoing absorption of space in our submarkets will support increased leasing and improved deal economics in the year ahead. The first quarter in New York was largely defined by the completion of a significant new lease with Kirkland and Ellis for 179,000 square feet at 900 Third Avenue. The transaction is a testament to the quality of 900 Third Avenue and serves as yet another example of the New York office market's ongoing resurgence. In addition and subsequent to quarter end, we signed a new 121,000 square foot lease, 30,000 square feet of which is short term with the law firm Banesh at 1301 Avenue Of The Americas, 1 of the most active buildings in our portfolio. This takes our leased occupancy rates in 90% and given current activity on vacant floors at the building, we would expect additional occupancy gains in the coming quarters.

Speaker 3

At quarter end, our New York portfolio is currently 87.4% leased on a same store basis at share, up two forty basis points from last quarter. Our lease expiration profile in New York is manageable with approximately 255,000 square feet or 4.7% at share expiring by year end. Shifting to San Francisco, market wide leasing activity continues to steadily improve as Q1 marked the strongest first quarter of leasing activity since 2019. San Francisco employees have been returning to the office at an increasing rate as more tech companies modify their workplace policy to be more office centric. Remote job postings are declining and as we have seen in New York, return to work on a larger scale in San Francisco will drive increased leasing activity in 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 3

During the first quarter, AI based companies accounted for approximately 20 deals totaling more than 275,000 square feet and have become an increasingly large percentage of the tenants in the market profile as they continue to raise significant venture capital funding. In fact, more than half of the AI based tenants that transacted in the first quarter are new to the market highlighting San Francisco's growing importance as an AI hub. While overall market conditions remain challenging given elevated supply, there continues to be a steady uptick in leasing inquiries and tour activity, which have increasingly led to proposals and transactions. Subsequent to quarter end, we signed a new 32,000 square foot lease with a leading law firm on Google floors at 1 Market Plaza and look forward to welcoming them to the building. We remain focused on our known move outs, notably the ongoing backfill of Google space at 1 Market Plaza and the portion of JPMorgan space at 1 Front Street that expires this year.

Speaker 3

Plans are currently being developed to deliver exceptional amenities at both 1 Market Plaza and 1 Front Street leveraging our experience from the Paramount Club. We are confident that our amenity plan will resonate with existing tenants and prospective tenants alike. At quarter end, our San Francisco portfolio was 82.3% leased on a same store basis at share, down 150 basis points from last quarter. As we've discussed on prior calls, our lease expiration profile in our core portfolio in San Francisco is significant with 490,000 square feet or 27.7% expiring at share in 2025, approximately 80% of which is comprised of Google and JPMorgan. With that summary, I will turn the call over to Wilbur who will discuss the financial results.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, we reported core FFO of $0.17 per share for the first quarter, which was $01 above consensus estimates. First quarter same store growth was negative 4.1% on a cash basis and negative 5.4% on a GAAP basis. Our first quarter financial results are trending in line with our expectations and therefore we are reaffirming our earnings guidance that we put out back in February. During the first quarter, we executed 12 leases for a total of 283,874 square feet at weighted average starting rents of $76.52 per square foot and for a weighted average lease term of twelve point nine years.

Speaker 4

Mark to markets on 81,707 square feet of second generation space was negative 1.5% on a cash basis and positive 7.1% on a GAAP basis. At quarter end, the leased occupancy rate of our same store portfolio was 86.2, up 140 basis points from the prior quarter, with New York at 87.4%, up two forty basis points and San Francisco at 82.3%, down 150 basis points. Based on our year to date results and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are increasing our leasing guidance to now be between 900,000 square feet and 1,100,000 square feet, representing an 11% increase at the midpoint. In addition, we are increasing our same store leased occupancy guidance to now be between 84.486.4%, representing a 50 basis point increase at the midpoint from our prior guidance. This, of course, is driven by our New York portfolio.

Speaker 4

As I said during our last call, the occupancy of our New York portfolio has bottomed out and with increasing velocity and a modest lease roll, we will continue to drive occupancy. Also, as previously highlighted, lease occupancy in our San Francisco portfolio will deteriorate further in the near term before improving, driven by the sheer magnitude of lease expirations in the upcoming quarters. Turning to our balance sheet. In January, we sold a 45% interest in 900 Third Avenue. The sale resulted in net proceeds to the balance sheet of approximately $95,000,000 bringing our quarter end cash and restricted cash balance to 499,300,000.0 Our debt at quarter end, excluding debt on noncore assets, amounts to 3,250,000,000.00 at a weighted average rate of 4.26% and a weighted average term of two point six years.

Speaker 4

Seventy three percent of this debt is fixed with a weighted average interest rate of 3.51% and a weighted average term of three point one years. The remaining 27% is floating with a weighted average interest rate of 6.28% and a weighted average term of 1.4. If you factor interest rate caps, our floating rate debt is reduced from 27% to less than 1%. Other than the debt on noncore assets, we do not have any debt maturing in 2025. We have $1,500,000,000 of debt maturing in 2026, the largest of which is the $860,000,000 loan on 1301 Sixth Avenue.

Speaker 4

The building is performing exceptionally well and is now 90% leased and climbing. The debt markets for high quality assets like thirteen o one is liquid, notwithstanding the recent turbulence in the macro environment. We will monitor the markets and opportunistically look to derisk our 2026 maturities. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Your first question comes from Manasseh Beck with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. The first one I want to just touch on high level on capital uses and sources. With the stock obviously trading where it is, what do you what should we expect kind of, like, going forward in '25?

Speaker 5

Maybe see more of transactions like 900 Third Avenue or just maybe help us think through on, like, a more broader high level what you kind of, like, are aiming for here.

Speaker 2

Hey, Manas. This is Albert Baylor. As we had mentioned, before, we we wanna be, considering all the options and, remain disciplined for sure and opportunistic. So if there are opportunities like the one we had at 900 Third, we are definitely looking at that because it's helpful for us. We wanna maintain flexibility and continue to develop our great relationships, especially abroad, and do the best for the shareholders with those relationships.

Speaker 5

Yes, Danke. I think that makes sense. And then maybe one question. Was interesting to hear that you talked about the 32,000 square feet law firm that signed for the former Google floors at 1 Market Plaza. Could you maybe, to the extent you can share, talk about the rents, maybe the concessions or the timing for that specific tenant to decide to go to one marketplace?

Speaker 5

But congrats. It's a it's a good win for the building.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mattis. This is Peter. We are we are seeing a lot of activity from law firms that are looking to upgrade the quality of their real estate, and we're we're trading paper with several at one market. This particular law firm, we're really very proud to welcome to the building. You know, the upper floors, I would say, generally command rents in excess of a hundred and $20 a foot.

Speaker 3

Certainly, view space in a building of one market's quality, is commanding real interest. And so in any event, we were able to announce this subsequent to quarter end to give you, the idea that we are starting to make progress. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are starting to see and have more constructive conversations with the brokerage community in San Francisco. Tour activity is up. Proposals are starting to percolate.

Speaker 3

And so we're generally starting to feel better about the activity levels in San Francisco. But that was certainly a nice win for the building and we look forward to sharing more in the quarters ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. That is it for me. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Next question, Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Just following up on that last question. I guess, can you just talk a little bit more about San Francisco? It sounds like you guys continue to see good activity in that market in the first quarter. I guess, has any of that momentum stalled with the current uncertainty in the market?

Speaker 6

Peter, you just talked about the activity at one market, but can you touch on any activity you guys have at one front? And then more broadly, I guess, how do you think about your commitment to that market over the long term? I guess, is there any scenario in which you'd sell down your exposure there like you did in DC and kind of just focus on New York?

Speaker 2

Blaine, let me start with this. We have, as you said now, transferred a lot of assets from lots of investments that we had in D. C, I think in a prudent manner in time and early into San Francisco. San Francisco is clearly a different market than D. C.

Speaker 2

That has long term structural issues. In San Francisco, I am still cautiously optimistic. The team spent nearly a week in San Francisco, including myself. We had meetings with the local authorities. You know that the mayor changed and the administration.

Speaker 2

And there's a totally different attitude business.

Speaker 3

I had

Speaker 2

a personal meeting with the mayor and his head of housing, Ned Siegel, and they're committed to clean up the city, make it safe. It is their first goal. And working with the business community with the large employers with whom they are well connected to come back into the city similar to what had happened here in New York. And we have said on previous calls that San Francisco will be behind New York because it's a different kind of business environment. The technology firms reacted to the pandemic differently.

Speaker 2

Some of them thought they can work from home forever, but they're realizing as well that the return to the office is beneficial for their business in general. So we have already seen, and Peter can go into more details, you don't see that yet in the numbers, but we have seen much more leasing activity in the market with our various assets. So it might take a little time as it took here in New York, but it looks like it's turning around to the positive. And you'd asked a question about the tariff discussions. We don't see an impact on that at all for the time being in the market.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. That's really helpful and sounds great. And then I appreciate your commentary and transparency again on the 2025 move outs and upcoming expirations. But wanted to ask if you could give an update on any activity you have at Showtime, Visa, any other large spaces that are facing expirations in '26.

Speaker 3

Sure. So so, Blaine, this is Peter. We've we've discussed that 70% of our lease roll in San Francisco is comprised of of, Google and JPMorgan. That's in '25. You asked about '26, and I think the big moving parts in '26 in San Francisco specifically are are Morgan Lewis, Autodesk, Visa.

Speaker 3

We know that Morgan Lewis and and Visa will move out. We are, in advanced discussions with a a tenant for a portion of the Visa space currently, so that backfill has started. And that, what I'm now referring to is is a portion of the the leases and negotiation pipeline that I did mention in in my prepared remarks. And so we're we are we are making progress there. As it relates to Showtime in New York, that is, of course, our most significant known move out in 02/1926.

Speaker 3

We're trading paper with, two or three tenants of size, for that large block. When you look at what's happening in Midtown specifically, there are few blocks of this size, certainly of this quality. And the the block, of course, is is at 1633 Broadway that I'm referring to, the roughly 250,000 square foot Showtime block. And so while that space does come back to us in January of twenty six, we are optimistic with regard to the activity level we have on the building, but it really is too soon at this point to share anything more than that.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks, Peter. Last one for me, for Wilbur. Just touching on guidance. Your leasing volume and lease rate guidance were adjusted upward, but no change in same store NOI guidance.

Speaker 6

Is that just due to kind of the delayed commencement of leases that you're expecting, transferring into occupancy? Or are there any other kind of moving pieces that we should be aware of?

Speaker 4

Blaine, it's primarily that. There are a couple of moving pieces. You know, we're we're trying to be very measured here with, with guidance as we as we always have. We gave out guidance two months ago. You know, we're we're sitting here in March.

Speaker 4

I think, you will see that refined, and and and probably to the better as we as we move on, with the activity we see right now and what's in the pipeline.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Next question, Dylan Brzezinski with Green Street. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just sort of continuing on the trend of the improvement in leasing volume or churn activity that you guys are seeing, not only across New York now, but San Francisco. Can you sort of talk about that specifically related to some of the larger tenants? Are we starting to finally see, these tenants come back and look to take down space especially in San Francisco?

Speaker 3

Yeah. Dylan, this is Peter. I'll start. I'll I'll you asked about New York. I I'll tell you that, the competition for space certainly in in premier buildings in the core submarkets of Midtown is the most obvious theme that we're feeling.

Speaker 3

That is the force that is driving this market. And and certainly, there are large tenants that are that are really very active in Midtown specifically. As Albert said and I touched on, San Francisco is certainly beginning to heal and recover. There's a lot of reasons to to to to feel good and acknowledge that there are, in fact, some green shoots. It's still early, but in the most recent quarter, we did see some some some deals of size happen.

Speaker 3

And so we are starting to see, we are starting to see more activity. And I think it it it's not just tech companies. We've seen financial services and law firms of varying sizes. And so, you know, this most recent quarter was the best quarter that San Francisco's realized since the February. And while it's one quarter, we directionally we feel that directionally the market is moving in the right, direction because of, you know, not only what we're experiencing by way of the results that have now been posted, but we're seeing out in the field day to day with the types of conversations we're having with the brokerage community.

Speaker 7

Appreciate those comments, Peter. And I guess just just that demand you talked about in San Francisco, would you characterize that as, like, net new demand in terms of new tenants in market or expansionary space? Or is that more sort of musical chairs and more representative of tenants wanting to move out of, quote, unquote, maybe a more commodity building into a higher quality building, you know, that a Paramount might own?

Speaker 3

We're seeing a lot of law firms that are that are looking to to upgrade the quality of their real estate. I I think where we're seeing, net new tenants enter the market would be the AI based tenants. As I mentioned in my remarks, more than half of the deals that occurred in the first quarter, there were 20 deals, AI deals, you will, more than half of them were new to the market. And so we are we are seeing tenants that that, quite honestly, we have to research when when when we we identify who, in fact, they are. And and and so there is a lot of new tenants finding their way into San Francisco, which are, like I said, predominantly AI based, tenants.

Speaker 3

They continue to be recipients of enormous amounts of venture capital funding. They certainly acknowledge the importance of the office. They subscribe to in person work, and they are becoming increasingly active in a larger part of the tenant in the market profile in San Francisco.

Speaker 7

Appreciate the details. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Evan.

Operator

Next question, Tom Catherwood with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you and good morning everybody. Great to see the progress in Manhattan both in 1Q and thus far in 2Q. Are the Kirkland and Benesch leases all on vacant space? Or are you taking back some space or moving tenants around to get those deals done?

Speaker 3

Tom. This is Peter. I want to say that Kirkland was a rough in excess of a hundred thousand square feet on vacant space. So so, it it not only solved for vacant space, but served to derisk, lease roll. The Venice transaction, which we announced this morning, was comprised of the following, about 30,000 square feet on on on vacant space, 60,000 square feet that's scheduled to expire in the fourth quarter of this year, and 30,000 square feet on space that's scheduled to expire in '2 in the February.

Speaker 8

Got it. Appreciate that. And then, Peter, you had mentioned the shrinking pool of of quality available office space in Midtown. Are you starting to see tenants coming to you earlier in the renewal process to try to lock in their space than they have in years past? And does that allow you to start pushing rents here?

Speaker 3

Yeah. I I think with every tenant, it's a little different. I do think the fear of loss has kicked in, and I think that's largely what's causing tenants to to engage. You know, we recognize that of the call at 40,000,000 square feet in Midtown, 80 Percent of it is on Floors 24 and below. And so if you if you happen to be leasing a high quality building as we as we do, of course, you certainly have pricing power on upper floors.

Speaker 3

There's just not a lot of availability on upper floors in our market here in Midtown. And so, yes, we do we do recognize that we have pricing power. We are pushing when and where we have availability on upper floors, and we're seeing the results now.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then last one for me, up on Blaine's San Francisco question. Yesterday, one of your peers expressed concern that the first quarter leasing pickup was more of a one off with a number of large requirements landing at once, but demand behind that primarily concentrated in small to midsize tenants. Do you agree with that? And has your pipeline recently changed as large leases have signed elsewhere?

Speaker 3

There were certainly some several large transactions, done in the first quarter, Google, JPMorgan, Databricks. And I would also say that a lot of these AI based companies are smaller in nature, not all of them, but a lot of them, given given where they are in the revolution. I don't know that that that rules out larger opportunities. Certainly, we are having conversations with with tenants of size. And so I I I think in terms of, you know, demand, I I would say that there still remains a nice range of of, requirements currently in the market.

Speaker 3

You know, we we we call the the sort of tenant in the market pipeline in San Francisco to be roughly 7,000,000 square feet, and it's made up of tenants of varying sizes.

Speaker 8

Got it. Appreciate all the answers. Thanks everyone.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tom.

Operator

I would like to turn the floor over to Albert Baylor for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to providing an update on our continued progress when we report our second quarter twenty twenty five results. Goodbye.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

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