Ameren Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Ameren EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.07
• Consensus EPS: $1.08
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.98

Ameren Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.10 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.92 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$178.91 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +15.50%

Ameren Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 5/1/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Friday, May 2, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Ameren (NYSE:AEE), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. It engages in the rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution activities; and rate-regulated natural gas distribution business. In addition, the company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, and natural gas, as well as renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Ameren Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings, and welcome to Amarin Corporation First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Andrew Kirk, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modeling for Amarin Corporation. Thank you, Mr.

[Operator]

Kirk. You may begin.

[Andrew Kirk, Sr. Director of IR & Corporate Modeling at Ameren]

Thank you, and good morning. On the call with me today are Marty Lyons, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and Michael Main, our Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer as well as other members of the Ameren management team. This call contains time sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. We have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that would be referenced by our speakers. As noted on Page two of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements about future expectations, plans, projections, financial performance and similar matters, which are commonly referred to as forward looking statements.

[Andrew Kirk, Sr. Director of IR & Corporate Modeling at Ameren]

Please refer to the forward looking statements section in the news release we issued yesterday as well as our SEC filings for more information about the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Now here's Marty, who will start on Page four.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone. I will begin on Page four. At Amarin, we remain steadfastly committed to our strategic plan, which continues to drive value for our customers, communities and shareholders. Our focus is clear, deliver reliable, affordable energy while making prudent investments in energy infrastructure.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

In the first quarter of twenty twenty five, we made great strides. Key energy infrastructure investments are enhancing the reliability and resiliency of the system for our 2,500,000 electric customers and more than 900,000 natural gas customers across our service territory, ensuring they have the energy they need when they need it and facilitating economic growth in the communities we serve. Today, we'll provide an update on first quarter performance and how execution of our strategic objectives outlined on this slide are translating into tangible benefits for customers, communities and shareholders. Let's get started with details on our financial progress this quarter, which I will cover on Page five. Yesterday, we announced first quarter twenty twenty five earnings of $1.07 per share compared to adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share in the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

The key drivers of these results are outlined on this slide. We continue to expect twenty twenty five diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.85 per share and $5.05 per share. Moving to Page six. On our call in February, I highlighted some of our top priorities for 2025 as we invest strategically to benefit customers, enhance regulatory frameworks and optimize business processes. The Ameren team's efforts during the first quarter have already begun to yield positive results as you can see on Page seven.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Starting off, ongoing investments continue to improve the reliability, resiliency, safety and efficiency of service for customers while facilitating and contributing to economic growth. And as we look ahead, more will be required. In February, we filed our analysis with the Missouri Public Service Commission or MOPSC supporting a change to Ameren Missouri's preferred resource plan, which calls for significant investments in dispatchable natural gas and renewable generation resources as well as battery storage to ensure reliable service for our customers over the next decade. Enabling such investments requires collaborative efforts among key stakeholders. And we believe regulatory and legislative results this year in Missouri demonstrate a commitment to fostering a constructive environment for investment, which will allow Ameren Missouri to continue to attract capital on favorable terms in order to facilitate economic growth in the state.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

In April, the Missouri Commission approved a constructive settlement in our electric rate review that supports necessary grid reliability investments while also maintaining customer rates that are well below national and Midwest averages. And in April, the Missouri General Assembly and governor enacted comprehensive energy legislation signaling that investment in the state's utility infrastructure is valued and paving the way for significant economic development within our communities and further job creation. We're excited about prospects for growth in Missouri and remain committed to creating lasting value for our customers, communities and shareholders through our strategic investments. Before moving on, I'd like to express my sincere appreciation to our Ameren team members who work safely and efficiently to reliably serve our customers, especially in extreme weather conditions like the cold, wintry conditions we experienced in January and the wet, windy and tornadic conditions we experienced in March. And it's worth noting that the grid hardening investments we have made in recent years performed exceptionally well considering the severity of the storms.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

So far in 2025, we have prevented more than 114,000 customer outages through smart switching during major storms, equivalent to more than 30,000,000 outage minutes avoided. For context, this means that our investments in smart technology have prevented more customer outages this quarter alone than in any full year since we began tracking these statistics in 2021. We continue to focus on optimizing our operations to deliver safe, reliable, resilient and affordable energy to our customers. Now moving to Page eight, where we provide more in terms of the Missouri legislative update. In April, the governor signed Senate Bill four, a wide ranging energy bill into law.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

This bill includes multiple provisions that will support our ability to continue to meet the needs of our customers and maintain the state as an affordable and attractive place to do business. Some of the key provisions of Senate Bill four include expansion and extension of plant and service accounting or PISA, a modified integrated resource planning or IRP process, which accelerates generation project review and requires a Missouri Public Service Commission decision, authority for the commission to grant construction work in progress for qualifying generation investments and authority for the commission to approve use of a forward test year for our Missouri natural gas business. By extending PISA for another seven years through 02/1935 and expanding PISA to include new natural gas generation, our regulatory framework will continue to support investment in reliable energy for years to come, better positioning Ameren Missouri to meet the future needs of our customers and communities. Importantly, PISA's extension and expansion and the modified IRP process are expected to help key stakeholders align more quickly on generation needs and provide more certainty around future investment plans, enhancing our speed to deploy new resources for customers and communities. Turning to Page nine for an update on the economic development opportunities.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Our team is focused on doing all we can from an energy perspective to facilitate growth in our communities. We serve a diverse regional economy that spans multiple sectors, including manufacturing, aviation and defense, food and beverage and biotechnology among others. In the first quarter, we successfully supported nearly a dozen projects, which will bring over $700,000,000 of capital investment from these businesses and over 1,000 jobs across both states. In Missouri, we continue to expect approximately 5.5 compound annual sales growth from 2025 through 2029, primarily driven by increasing data center demand. Further supporting our growth opportunities, we now have signed construction agreements with data center developers representing a total of approximately 2.3 gigawatts of future demand, up 500 megawatts from our earnings call in February.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

These developers have demonstrated their confidence and commitment by submitting non refundable payments totaling $26,000,000 towards the cost of necessary transmission upgrades. Subject to agreement on rate structure, potential large load customers would sign separate electric service agreements, which would specify expected ramp up schedules among other terms. We continue to expect to file for approval of the proposed rate structure with the MOPSC in the second quarter. While there's no deadline for commission approval, we are optimistic that we'll receive a decision and have an effective rate structure before the end of the year. We're committed to working closely with regulators, customers and stakeholders to ensure we meet the evolving needs in our service territory in a responsible and sustainable manner.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Our balanced approach to generation laid out in our IRP ensures reliable service to our customers, while also providing energy to serve rising customer demand and to support economic growth in our communities. On Page 10, we provide a brief update on the 1,200 megawatts of new generation currently under development at Ameren Missouri. These projects remain on schedule and on budget. Notably, we've executed contracts to acquire all eight turbines and other long lead time materials needed for our next two simple cycle natural gas energy centers expected to be in service in 2027 and 2028. Further, for solar energy centers under construction, including Vandalia, Bowling Green and Split Rail, nearly all imported equipment needed to execute the projects was in The U.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

S. Prior to the April 2 trade tariff announcement, thereby limiting possible exposure to higher costs associated with announced tariffs on materials imported. We continue to monitor the dynamic tariff situation and work diligently to deliver cost effective energy resources for our customers. Finally, we expect to file additional certificate of convenience and necessity requests with the commission in the coming months with respect to planned investments in gas generation, solar generation and battery storage. Moving to page 11 for an update on MISO's long range transmission planning portfolios.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

We're focused on developing proposals for the Tranche 2.1 long range transmission planning competitive projects. We will evaluate each bidding opportunity carefully and submit bids for projects where we believe we have a competitive advantage with project design, cost and execution to deliver value for customers in the MISO region. The bid process for the $6,500,000,000 of competitive projects in the portfolio will take place over this year and next. Further, MISO continues its future scenario redesign efforts, which consider growing demand for energy and the effects of changing resource planning across the region. We're actively engaged in this analysis with MISO and other transmission owners and expect MISO to issue its final report on the future redesign by the end of the year.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Given this timeframe, we'd expect work on the identification of tranche 2.2 projects, which will address further transmission needs in the MISO region to commence as early as December 2025. Moving to Page 12. Looking ahead over the next decade, we have a robust pipeline of investment opportunities of more than $63,000,000,000 that will deliver significant value to all of our stakeholders by making our energy grid stronger, smarter and cleaner, empowering economic growth in our communities, bringing significant tax base and jobs. Moving to Page 13. In February, we updated our five year growth plan, which included our expectation of a 6% to 8% compound annual earnings growth rate from 2025 through 2029.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

This earnings growth is primarily driven by strong compound annual rate base growth of 9.2% supported by strategic allocation of infrastructure investment to each of our business segments based on their regulatory frameworks. We expect to deliver strong long term earnings and dividend growth resulting in an attractive total return. I'm confident in our ability to execute our investment plans and strategies across all four of our business segments as we have an experienced and dedicated team to get it done. Again, thank you all for joining us today and for your continued interest in Amarin. I'll now turn the call over to Michael.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to Page 15 of our presentation. Yesterday, we reported first quarter twenty twenty five earnings of $1.07 per share compared to adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. The key factors that drove the increase are highlighted by segment on this page. Our infrastructure investments to strengthen the energy grid and to provide more energy resources to serve our customers continue to be the primary driver of earnings growth across the company.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Further, the economic outlook for our service territories remains strong. In fact, over the twelve trailing months ended in March, Air Missouri's total weather normalized retail sales have increased by approximately 3% compared to the year ago period. We've seen continued strategic wins that highlight the strength of our service territory. Notably, Boeing was recently awarded the next generation air dominance contract by the federal government valued at least $20,000,000,000 Boeing's ongoing St. Louis campus expansion to support this contract and other defense work is expected to create a significant number of new jobs and manufacturing work and reaffirms their commitment to the St.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Louis community. In addition to aerospace, we're seeing growth in other sectors of our regional economy such as healthcare, education services and mining. Turning to Page 16, I'll provide an update on our twenty twenty four Ameren Missouri rate review. In April, the Missouri PSC approved a constructive stipulation agreement for $355,000,000 annual revenue increase. As our fifth consecutive settlement of electric revenue requirements in the state, this agreement continues our strong track record of achieving win win results for our customers, communities and shareholders.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

The agreement does not specify certain details, including return on equity, capital structure or rate base. The agreement provides for the continuation of key trackers and writers, including the fuel adjustment clause. New rates will be effective on June 1. Importantly, new electric rates are expected to remain well below national and Midwest averages. Moving to Page 17, as we think about the remainder of the year.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We remain confident in our 2025 guidance range and continue to expect earnings to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05 per share and we remain focused on delivering at the midpoint or higher. Here we have provided the expected quarterly earnings impacts from our 2024 Missouri rate review for the remainder of the year. I encourage you to take these supplemental earnings drivers into consideration as you develop your expectations for quarterly earning results for the balance of the year. Before moving on, I want to take a moment to discuss the trade tariffs recently proposed by the current administration. As Marty discussed, we have a robust capital spending plans in 2025 and the years ahead to meet critical customer needs.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Our sourcing practices are designed to ensure we have materials where we need them and when we need them at competitive prices. In light of uncertainties associated with the tariffs, we are closely examining potential impacts on our capital budget. However, as we sit here today, we expect any impacts to be very manageable. We will continue to navigate the developing environment to ensure we remain well positioned to execute on our projects on time and as affordably as possible for our customers. Turning to Page eighteen, we'll provide a financing update.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We continue to feel very good about our financial position and made excellent progress to date on our 2025 financing plan. In March, Ameren Illinois issued $350,000,000 or five point six two five percent first mortgage bonds due 02/1955. And Ameren parent issued $750,000,000 or 5.375% senior unsecured notes due 02/1935. And in April, Ameren Missouri issued $500,000,000 of five point two five percent first mortgage bonds due 02/1935. To date, we have completed over 80% of our debt financings for the year.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Also, we continue to systematically layer in hedges to mitigate interest rate exposure with respect to planned future parent debt issuances. Further, in order for us to support our credit ratings and maintain a strong balance sheet while we fund our robust infrastructure plan, we expect to issue approximately $600,000,000 of common equity in 2025. We have sold forward approximately $535,000,000 of equity under our at the market or ATM program consisting of approximately 5,800,000.0 shares which we expect to issue near the end of this year. And we expect the remainder of

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

our equity needs for the year to

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

be issued under our dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans. Having utilized most of the capacity available under our existing equity sales distribution program, we expect to increase the program capacity in the coming months to enable additional sales to support equity needs in 2026 and beyond. We'll continue to be thoughtful about our approach to executing our equity plan. On the balance sheet front, in April, S and P affirmed our BBB plus credit rating and we expect Moody's to issue its annual credit opinion update later this month. As we said before, we value our current ratings and we continue to target credit metrics at or above agency published downgrade thresholds.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

On Page 19, we provide an update on Illinois regulatory matters. Earlier this week, Ameren Illinois requested a $61,000,000 revenue adjustment as part of the annual performance based rate reconciliation proceeding under the electric multi year rate plan. This adjustment reflects 2024 actual cost, actual year end rate base and return on equity and common equity ratios established in the multi year rate plan. In Illinois Commerce Commission or ICC decision is expected by mid December and rates reflecting the approved reconciliation adjustment will be effective by January 2026. Before moving on, I'd like to briefly discuss the MISO planning resource auction that took place earlier this week for the upcoming June 2025 through May 2026 planning year.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Importantly, there are adequate resources available to maintain reliability across all zones and seasons. That said, new capacity additions did not keep pace with reduced accreditation, suspensions and retirements of generation and slightly reduced imports, which resulted in a notable increase in capacity prices for June through August 2025 in all MISO zones. The results reinforce the need to invest in new regional generation capacity as demand is expected to continue to grow with new large load customer additions and as we expect continued retirement of existing generation. That said, annualized capacity pricing for Zone 5 located in Missouri moderated since the prior year's auction due in part to the strategic infrastructure investments in the energy grids transmission capabilities and generation resources. Changes in energy and capacity prices do not materially affect our earnings for Ameren Missouri or Ameren Illinois as they're passed on to customers with no markup.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

In Zone 4, some of our Ameren Illinois customers will see increases in the energy supply component of their bill for the summer months. That will ultimately depend on if they are taking supply services from Ameren Illinois or the terms of their contract with another supplier. Notably, we would expect prices to return to pre auction levels in October. We remain actively engaged in discussions with key stakeholders to develop long term solutions to benefit of our Illinois customers by ensuring system reliability, promoting regional generation development and maintaining affordability while supporting the transition to cleaner energy in the state. We will continue to support our customers and communities by connecting them with bill assistance programs and resources where needed.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Turning to Page 20. Our Illinois natural gas rate review remains in progress with intervenor and direct testimony expected next week. An ICC decision is expected by early December with new rates effective later that month. In summary, turning to Page 21, we're off to a strong start in 2025 and are well positioned to continue executing our strategic plan, which will drive consistent superior value for all of our stakeholders. We continue to expect strong earnings per share growth driven by robust rate base growth, disciplined cost management and a strong customer growth pipeline.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

As we said before, we have the right strategy, the right team and the right culture to capitalize on these opportunities and to create value for our customers and our shareholders. We believe this growth will compare favorably with the growth of our peers. Further, Ameren shares continue to offer investors an attractive dividend. In total, we have an attractive total shareholder return story. That concludes our prepared remarks.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We now invite your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Hi, good morning.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Good morning, Jeremy.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Just want to start off with the additions as you laid out there. It seems like a lot of activity percolating. And just want to see the three fifty that you referenced there. Just want to make sure that's separate from the 2.3 gigawatt referenced or just want to kind of clarify that point in the outlook there?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Jeremy. Good morning. It's Michael. Yes. So again, I think the incremental change is 1.8 to 2.3.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

So we signed an additional 500 megawatts under construction agreements related to data centers. And so when you think about that 1.8 that we had in the fourth quarter of last year, I mean that was inclusive of that three fifty. So hopefully that's clear. So it's an incremental 500,000,000 between where we were at the fourth quarter.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then just wondering if you could expand a bit more, I guess, as these additions continue, how that looks for the need for new generation here compounds, I guess, some of the factors that you laid out earlier? Just any other thoughts would be helpful.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Yes, Jeremy, this is Marty. Again, thanks for joining us. When we think about the 2.3 gigawatts of data center load growth and you think about it in terms of the sales growth that we've laid out, it just gives us greater confidence in some of the sales growth estimates that we've provided. And when you went back and you look at the slide that we provided, I think it was Slide nine, we show there is an expectation of 5.5% compound annual sales growth in Missouri. And that is foundational, of course, to the resource plan that we filed.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

But also that resource plan that we filed has the generation that's capable of supplying up to that two gigawatts of low growth by 02/1930 that's shown in the green shaded area on that slide. And we think about this 2.3 gigawatts of data center construction agreements, again, just gives us greater confidence with respect to that sales growth. Now what we're going to be working on here is, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, is we're

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

going to be

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

filing with the commission a rate construct for these large load customers here in the second quarter. Then we're gonna be working to develop service agreements with the hyperscalers that would use and others that would use these data centers. We expect these customers would, you know, sign these separate agreements. And amongst other things, those agreements would lay out the ramp up schedule, minimum load obligations and things like that. With that, we'll get greater clarity in terms of the ramp up schedule for these data centers.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

But if you sign 2.3 gigawatts of construction agreements, for example, you could still have at or less than two gigawatts of sales by 02/1932 depending upon the ramp up schedule. So we'll get greater clarity over time. But I think the 2.3 gigawatts certainly gives us greater confidence with respect to the sales growth. And of course, our IRP is tied to our plans. Now I will say that as the interest in data centers grows, we continue to explore avenues to provide incremental generation if needed, but feel like the generation plans that we laid out in that IRP would be adequate to serve this 2.3 gigawatts of load as we see it today.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Got it. That's very helpful there. Thanks. And just wanted to go back to the IRA, if you could. And granted, there's lot of uncertainty at this point.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

But in the market, there's a lot of attention on transferability. And if there were any changes there, if that was taken away. Guess the impacts that might have on your plan or how you think about potential offsets there is needed.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Yes, Jeremy, we'll kind of tag team that. It's certainly a really timely question. You know, as as you've seen in the press, house ways and means is expected to start marking up legislation in the next week or so. And congress as a whole, know, wants to have a bill on the president's desk by July 4. So a lot of work to be done here in the near term.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

You we're gonna see in the coming weeks where compromise can be reached on the tax credits and, of course, other important provisions that will be in that legislation for our customers. And really, that's the key here, I think. These tax credits are all about being able to build the generation resources our customers need in the near term at an affordable cost. And for us, based on that IRP that I just referred to earlier, which as you know, sort of incorporates in all of the above portfolio resources, calls for more gas, solar, wind, batteries, and eventually nuclear. And so those tech neutral tax credits, they're estimated to deliver a little over $2,000,000,000 of customer bill savings to our customers over the next ten years based on that IRP.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

And that value, of course, doesn't accrue to shareholders. Those credits reduce customer rates. So maintaining the credits as long as we can, let's say, into the early 2030s with safe harbor provisions and transferability is is you know, would be really great for our customers. And that transferability you mentioned is really key. We use that provision today to sell the credits as they're earned and then pass that cash on to customers.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

And and I see it as, you know, the credits and the transferability really go hand in hand and are really key to that affordability picture. And so that's what our that's what we've been advocating for. You know, when I've been in DC, it's what our industry is advocating for and, you know, what what others in DC are advocating for. And so, you know, look, as as we look out over the next few weeks, the sausage making may not be pretty as as, you know, Congress has a lot to balance in terms of their priorities. But I I still remain optimistic we'll get to a reasonable resolution based on, you know, the fact that, you know, this is really about all about energy reliability for our customers, energy dominance, if you will, and customer energy prices.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

And I think that's really key at the end of the day. But I'll let Michael chime in further in terms of our specific plans.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Yes. Hey, thanks, Marty. That's great overview. And I share Marty's optimism this ends up ultimately in a good spot. I think Jeremy a couple of things just to keep in mind.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Mean, we've talked about this before. I mean, we come into this as in a position of strength, right? I mean, I think our balance sheet is probably one of the stronger in the industry. And so that's given us a great deal of flexibility. I think as we laid out on our fourth quarter call, we're averaging about $300,000,000 per year over this five year plan with respect to credits.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

And I think the other thing that gets a bit nuanced is, I think even in some of the discussions that are going on in D. C, it's a lot of this is already associated with projects that are in service or have been safe harbored. And so it gets even further nuanced down from there. But I mean, take, for example, 2025, I think we have about, I don't know, a little less than $300,000,000 worth of credits. We've already realized more than half of that this year and then we'll probably realize the rest of it over the next couple of months.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

But if you kind of go through scenarios and try to parse some of that back, look, I feel good about this. I think it's manageable at the end of the day. I mean, even without those credits, I mean, you're going to end up with higher rate base, obviously. Unfortunately, you're going have higher prices for customers. But I do think the cash flow piece is manageable.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Think over that kind of 25 through 27 time period, kind of where we're focused on with the rating agencies, we're at or above that downgrade threshold over that period of time. We just completed our review with S and P over the last couple of weeks. They again reaffirmed our BBB plus just sitting in a really strong position with respect to them. Their downgrade threshold, as a reminder, is 13%. We got quite a bit of cushion over that as well.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

So again, feel like we got lots of flexibility. Again, I share Marty's optimism. I think this thing lands hopefully in

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

an okay spot. But I

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

think either way, we're able to work around this in a manageable way.

[Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Got it. Thank you for the thoughts. No one likes the sausage making. Thanks.

[Operator]

Our

[Operator]

next question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Yes. Hi, good morning. It's Brian Russo on for Julian. How are you?

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Great, Brian. Good to have

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

you.

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Just

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

to follow-up on the transferability question. The 300,000,000 per year of tax credit monetization, manageable. So how technically would you offset that? I think you've got an FFO to debt target of 17% every year. Could that be done without additional equity to offset the $300,000,000 Is there another way for you to accomplish that?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Absolutely. I mean, again, as I stated today, what I just said before, I do think this is really manageable. Think even without these credits. And again, it's I think you gotta get into, you know, how much really go away. Right?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Because I think there is a piece associated with stuff that's already in service, stuff that's safe harbored. I I really think those probably stay. And even ultimately, if some of that stuff would go away, which seems to be a really draconian way to look at it, I still think it's manageable without issuing additional equity. Again, I think over that three year period, we're averaging it right at that downgrade threshold. And look, we continue to advocate with Moody's in particular that that downgrade threshold probably should come down too as well.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

I mean, we look at a couple of our peers. We've made some arguments around that that we think given all the progress that we've continued to make, you know, regulatorily, legislatively in Missouri, got things stabilized in Illinois, that, you know, we're being held to a higher standard, which I think also would give some flexibility. So, but, you know, we'll see where they ultimately go and all of that at the end of the day. But even without that, again, feel very good about the financing plan that we have in place.

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, great. And then on the PRP with SmartPlan, I mean, confident are you on the timeline that's proposed and then the total cost of the $16,200,000,000 to diversify mix of, like you said, renewables, gas and battery tariffs and obviously a lot of macro uncertainty with tariffs and supply chains. Just wanted to get your thoughts on your materials or major equipment type of procurement ahead of the ramp up in spend.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Yes. This is Michael again, Brian. Yes, look, we feel great about our plan. I think we've talked about this over the past year or so. With respect to those two gas turbines that we have in our plan, I mean, we took some early action to put contracts in place with respect to the long lead time material, just recognizing the tightness that was getting there in the market.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We've made payments in excess of $100,000,000 to that supplier to make sure those are secured. Feel good about the progress that's being made there. Construction started really on both sites. I think the teams feel very good, not hearing anything from the vendor that causes us any concern at all with respect to those gas turbines. Now turning really our focus to the combined cycle that's out there in the kind of 02/1932 timeframe.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

And I think probably be in a position by the end of this year to have some contracts in place there as well. So that will give us even further confidence. From a renewable standpoint, I think we had a slide in there that talked about 400 megawatts of different projects from a solar perspective. Team has been just super aggressive about getting material on-site for all of those projects. Feel very good about even avoiding tariffs.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Most of that those cells, etcetera, are in The U. S, either on-site or they're in warehouses, etcetera. Construction is well underway. Again, feel very good about what we see over the next few years. We'll have to continue to kind of work around all these tariff issues, but at the present moment, feel very good about the construction schedule.

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, great. And then just lastly on your Missouri regulatory strategy, constructive rate case settlement and with accelerating load growth ramping up in 2016 and beyond and now with SB4 support, do you see the cadence of your rate case filings changing? And then a follow on to that would just be kind of the earned returns that you expect in Missouri now. I think historically, it's been more of step up in terms of lag relative to when you get new rates in. Just curious there.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Yes, you bet. Again, I think the overall settlement as you just noted, it was constructive. I think I noted in my remarks that I think it's the fifth one. And so again, I think it's a win win for both customers and shareholders. And I think it's just a reflection of I think all the progress we've continued to make both regulatorily and legislatively in Missouri.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

And then obviously, as Marty went through some of the aspects of Senate Bill four, again, I think it's something that's incrementally positive how we think about regulatory lag. Our focus has always been earning as close to that allowed as possible. Mark Burke and that team continue to do a great job there. They're very mindful of cost, very mindful of the regulatory cycle and getting things in service at the right times. As you noted, I mean, we've been on, I'd say, about every kind of two year cadence.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We're always looking to try to stretch that out as far as we can. But just given the overall kind of super cycle of capital that we're in, it's hard to do that even with PISA. You really have to go in and kind of freshen up rates over a couple of years. Look, I think we'll continue to step back as we as Marty went through some of the data center opportunities and loan growth. We'll evaluate that.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

I mean, if it gives us some more flexibility, obviously, we want to do that. A lot will depend sort of on the ramp schedules, etcetera, when the stuff comes into place. The longest you can ever stay out of Missouri is four years because of the FAC. So it's someplace between that two and four year cycle. But that's sort of what's on our mind and how we kind of think about it today.

[Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

You bet.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions today. Maybe to start, just as we think about the macro environment and the higher degree of uncertainty, is there anything that you're seeing or hearing from your customers, particularly on the commercial or industrial side, giving any early indications of any potential pockets of slowdown or changes in plans for future load?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Good morning, Carla. This is Michael. No, not at all. I mean, think even I tried to note this in the remarks, you kind of step back and it's difficult when you kind of look at it on a quarter by quarter basis. But if you look at the last trailing twelve months, I mean, the overall growth has still been very, very strong.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Noted 3% across all classes. Again, residential up 1%, commercial up a little bit less and industrial up a strong 2%. So seeing growth in all areas that's coming off of a strong year. As we noted in 2024, we ended up 2% there as well. Again, I noted the Boeing opportunity, which I think is tremendous for the country, tremendous for St.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Louis, State of Missouri in terms of the F-forty seven being built here. I think it's got a lot of long term benefits. Marty noted a number of other Folks seem to be kinda weathering the storm, if you will. Marty, anything to add from your perspective?

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

No. That's exactly right. I I would just say, you know, the when we look ahead at the sales growth opportunities we have, you know, really, the the big thing driving that is this, you know, potential data center load, you know, hyperscaler interest. And, you know, that interest is just, you know, continued evidenced, obviously, by the 500 megawatts of additional

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Still there?

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hey. Sorry. The the line cut out there for a second for me. Can you guys still hear me?

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

We can now. Yeah.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Hopefully, you can hear us.

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Great. I I missed the the last maybe ten to fifteen seconds, Marty, of of your kind of comment. It important. I know. You started out on the data center piece, and then I lost you for the last bit there.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Yeah. Sorry about that. Yeah. You know, I was just underscoring that, you know, with respect to, you know, because I know there've been some questions out in the market about, you know, the, hyperscaler interest in data centers. And and I just want to underscore, you know, we're still having a very positive constructive conversations there and moving forward at a steady pace.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

It's underscored by, obviously, the 500 megawatts of additional construction agreements we had signed. But I know your question was about the overall economy. But when we look at some of the sales growth ahead, obviously, foundational to that is this data center demand, this hyperscaler interest. And that continues to be just sort of rock solid in terms of how we're moving forward with those conversations.

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Thank you for running back through that. Appreciate it. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the broader capital plan. I know you had some high level comments in the prepared on tariffs being manageable.

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Is there any quantification you can provide on the exposure of the overall capital plan to tariffs? And if there's any particular vertical that maybe is driving that exposure?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

You bet. Yes, I think when you kind of step back and look at the overall plan, I mean, just think about it in terms of the $26,000,000,000 And so, Carly, from that, about 65% is labor related, right? So we're not talking about any tariffs with respect to that at the moment. So 35% is sort of on the material side. And then from there, historically, about 85% or so of that is domestically sourced.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

I mean, the team has really done a nice job over the years developing kind of a robust diverse supply chain. So feel very, very good about that. As we kind of look through where we potentially have some exposure, I think on average, we think over that $26,000,000,000 it could be about 2%. And that's really before any mitigation. And the team will continue to look at it.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Most of that's going to be honestly tied up through some of the battery projects where we haven't made final decisions yet. The team is kind of working through some final RFP pieces this year. And I think there's some ability to pivot if we need to to have some more of that domestically sourced. But also when we may decide to leave it there at the end of the day, if it makes more sense from a reliability standpoint, the quality of the product, etcetera. So again, that 2%, I think, is a very manageable number.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

I mean, it's on top of that $26,000,000,000 plan that's over that five years. These are capital projects that we're talking about. Again, think we'll look for ways to try to mitigate that. I don't want to minimize every dollar matters here, right? We don't want to pass on any more cost than we absolutely have to.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

So the team will continue to look for ways to pivot and try to bring that down wherever possible. But I think at the highest level, the the number is fairly manageable. Hopefully, gives you some context.

[Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

That's really helpful. Thank you so much for the time.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Paul Fremont with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question.

[Paul Fremont, Managing Director at Ladenburg Thalmann]

Thank you very much. I guess, is there a cost estimate just on the Castle Bluff Eight Hundred megawatt plant now that you've procured the turbines?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Yes. Think $900,000,000 is the number that I think we disclosed in the end of the fourth quarter. So I still feel good about that estimate even as we've kind of gone through and freshened up everything from a contract perspective.

[Paul Fremont, Managing Director at Ladenburg Thalmann]

Great. And then if you were to choose to build additional gas fired generation, do you have a sense of what the cost would be and how long it would take for you to line up the equipment?

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

Well, we do have that other 800 megawatt gas plant that's in the plan there the following year. And again, I've made some previous comments about this. And again, we have secured the turbines there, feel good about it. I'd say the costs were a little bit higher, but generally in the range. And more importantly, just feel good about being able to get the project done in that time frame from a reliability standpoint.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

And then the next one out there is this combined cycle plant. And I alluded to this a couple of minutes ago. Mean, the team is inactive RFP process in the moment going through and looking at potential turbine vendors, etcetera. And so we'll have that locked down, I would say, by the end of this year. And so look, obviously, you're seeing some tightness in the market.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

We'll see what that ultimately produces from a cost perspective. But very focused on getting this generation online and the time frame that we've laid out there because of all the things that Marty talked about from the data center economic development, just general reliability perspective.

[Paul Fremont, Managing Director at Ladenburg Thalmann]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO at Ameren]

You bet. Our

[Operator]

next question comes from David Paz with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

[David Paz, Senior Vice President at Wolfe Research]

Good morning. Thanks for the time.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Hi, David.

[David Paz, Senior Vice President at Wolfe Research]

Hey. Just I guess quickly, just as and then I appreciate the update, thorough as always. But as you stand today, do you see your EPS growth in the second half of your planning period toward that upper end of 6% to eight

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

The answer is yes. David, it does. No change there. As we talked about on the our year end call, certainly, we've given guidance of six to 8% EPS CAGR for 25% to 29%. In the short term, we expect to be at or above the midpoint and meaning this year and next year.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

But as we see some of this load tick up, which we expect to see that load growth in late twenty twenty six and into 2027, as we talked about in February, we have some of this big CapEx that's in our IRP that Michael just talked about goes into service in 2027, '20 '20 '8, goes into rate base. In those periods, yes, we expect to deliver near the upper end of the range in that middle, latter part of that five year plan. So and look, I'm pleased with the performance this quarter. We talked about the additional construction agreements for data centers, which is giving us added confidence with respect to some of that load growth that we're seeing. I'll be honest with you, David, I was just pleased overall with the company's performance here in the first quarter.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

I think the Ameren team did a great job making progress on a lot of the strategic goals that we had set for ourselves in Q1 and additionally performed very well despite some weather challenges. And obviously, we delivered solid earnings and growth over last year. So real pleased about all that. We covered a lot of that in prepared remarks, so I won't tick through it all. But the key is that those things, filing, like the constructive rate review settlement in Missouri, Senate Bill four in Missouri, the financings that our team completed in this quarter, both debt and equity financings, the incremental data center, you know, construction agreements, all of the ongoing cost management across the company and the business process improvement efforts that we've got underway, all of these things give me greater optimism about the future and confidence that we're gonna be able to invest and grow our economies and deliver great value for our customers, communities and shareholders.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

As I sit here today, I think we had a very strong quarter and feel very good about the guidance that we provided back in February.

[David Paz, Senior Vice President at Wolfe Research]

Great. That's good to hear. Thank you, Marty.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

You bet, David.

[Operator]

We

[Operator]

have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Marty Lyons for closing comments.

[Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board at Ameren]

Great. Well, hey, thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the AGA Financial Forum, which is coming up in a few weeks. And with that, thank you. Have a great day and a great weekend.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Andrew Kirk, Sr. Director of IR & Corporate Modeling
• Martin Lyons, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
• Michael Moehn, Senior EVP & CFO

Analysts

• Jeremy Tonet, Equity Research Analyst, Executive Director at JP Morgan
• Brian Russo, Analyst at Jefferies
• Carly Davenport, Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Paul Fremont, Managing Director at Ladenburg Thalmann
• David Paz, Senior Vice President at Wolfe Research